Core Viewpoint - The C-REITs market experienced fluctuations in August, with a total market capitalization of 218.8 billion yuan and a decline in the China Securities REITs Total Return Index by 2.61% [2][3][7]. Market Performance - The China Securities REITs Total Return Index showed a downward trend in early August, followed by a rebound towards the end of the month, closing at 1073.33 [3]. - The average daily turnover in August was 696 million yuan, reflecting a 15% increase month-on-month, with an average turnover rate of 0.70% [3][15]. Sector Analysis - The data center sector saw a significant increase of 36.55%, while the rental housing sector led the decline with a drop of 5.45% due to rising long-term interest rates [3]. - The valuation pressure across various sectors has eased, with the spreads between different sectors and the 10-year government bond yields showing mixed trends [4]. Investment Opportunities - There are potential investment opportunities in high-quality projects that have seen price corrections, particularly in sectors with strong fundamentals such as rental housing and municipal environmental protection [5]. - The market is advised to focus on projects with stable tenant structures and those that have shown marginal stability in fundamentals [5]. Risk Appetite and Market Sentiment - The market's risk appetite appears to be contracting, as indicated by the fluctuations in major asset classes and the performance of the C-REITs index [4]. - The performance of the C-REITs market is closely linked to the broader capital market sentiment, which may influence future stability and recovery [4].

Core Viewpoint - HSBC maintains a "risk-on" stance for the last four months of 2025, recommending an overweight position in high-yield bonds and equities, particularly favoring U.S. stocks [1] Economic Recovery - The U.S. economy shows clear signs of accelerated recovery, with Q2 GDP revised to an annualized growth rate of 3.3%, supported mainly by consumer spending [2] - High-frequency macro and micro data continue to improve, contrasting with market expectations, which supports HSBC's risk-on stance [2] - However, inflation pressures are a concern, with core PCE inflation rising to 2.9% in July, the highest since February [2] Hawkish Risks - Despite potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, market expectations for future policy are considered overly dovish, with projections indicating about 5.5 rate cuts by December 2026 [3] - If hawkish risks materialize, it may not negatively impact risk assets, as strong economic data could be interpreted positively by the market [3] Positive Outlook on Risk Assets - HSBC remains positive on high-yield bonds and equities, particularly U.S. stocks, citing factors such as the widespread application of AI and signs of economic recovery supporting sensitive sectors [4] - The S&P 500 index is expected to see further gains, while small-cap stocks (Russell 2000) are currently viewed as less attractive [4] Corporate Earnings and AI Impact - Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 exceeded expectations, with an 81% beat rate and a year-over-year growth rate of 11.9%, marking three consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [5] - AI has significantly impacted corporate performance, with 44 S&P 500 companies achieving a 1.5% reduction in operating costs and a 24% increase in efficiency through AI applications [5] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Current market sentiment shows a moderate sell signal, but the likelihood of a significant short-term pullback is low due to a lack of fundamental triggers [6] - Risk asset inflows are slowly recovering, which is expected to support risk assets [6]

Market Overview - In August, driven by a series of policies, market risk appetite increased, leading the Shanghai Composite Index to break a 10-year high, with a continued stock-bond seesaw effect [1][25] - Bond funds and deposits from residents and enterprises flowed into higher-yielding non-bank sectors, suppressing bond market sentiment, while the 10-year government bond yield exceeded 1.8% [1][25] - The average daily trading volume of government bond futures in August was 417,000 contracts, a month-on-month increase of 39.41% [5] Economic Indicators - Domestic real estate investment, sales, and price declines continued to expand, indicating weak demand [1][25] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain reasonable liquidity in the market, which will provide some support for the bond market, especially for short-term government bond futures [1][25] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is experiencing a shift as funds continue to flow into non-bank sectors, which may lead to further weakening of government bond futures prices [1][25] - The Ministry of Finance has resumed the collection of value-added tax on government bonds and financial bonds, which may increase the tax burden on new bonds and widen the price differences across varieties [1][25] Financing and Supply - As of the end of August, the bond market's outstanding scale exceeded 191.71 trillion yuan, with net financing of 17,571 billion yuan in August, maintaining a high level [18] - The government is expected to continue high levels of bond financing, with a cumulative increase of 10.2 trillion yuan in government and local government bonds by August [21] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds will continue, with bond market sentiment likely to remain suppressed as funds flow into higher-yielding sectors [1][25] - The central bank's monetary policy will play a crucial role in stabilizing the economy and supporting the bond market amid external uncertainties and domestic demand weaknesses [1][25]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's risk appetite remains strong in September despite recent market fluctuations, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, resilient consumer spending, and ongoing momentum in artificial intelligence [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index has recorded gains for four consecutive months, indicating a robust summer market despite a slight dip in recent trading [2]. - A cross-asset momentum indicator maintained by Societe Generale has approached bullish thresholds multiple times since April, reflecting strong market sentiment [2]. - Major asset classes are experiencing low implied volatility, with current levels at a near four-year low, contrasting sharply with previous market turbulence [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Institutional investors increased stock purchases in August, particularly hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, as market volatility decreased [5]. - Investors are showing confidence in the market, believing that tariff impacts are less severe than initially feared, bolstered by solid economic fundamentals [3][4]. - Despite concerns about market concentration and potential risks from rising interest rates, many investors remain committed to their positions, viewing the market's resilience as a calculated response rather than blind optimism [6][7]. Group 3: Sector Rotation and Strategy - Some investors are cautiously rotating assets into less prominent sectors, such as small-cap stocks, anticipating benefits from the Fed's potential easing policies [7]. - There is a focus on obtaining stable returns while remaining flexible in response to changing market conditions, particularly in light of unpredictable long-term interest rate trends [7].

Report Information - Report Title: "Research on Major Asset Classes Isn't Complicated: The Second Lesson from a Decade of Research" [1] - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liu Yu [5] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Different major asset classes have unique risk - return characteristics, and these characteristics change over time. Therefore, investors should regularly re - evaluate these features, select high - quality assets, and aim for beta returns by avoiding frequent timing and trading [2][13] - The pricing of stocks, bonds, and gold can be unified within a framework of liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior. Understanding these factors helps in analyzing asset price trends and making investment decisions [3] Summary by Directory 1. What is a Good Asset? - Asset characteristics can be evaluated using the risk - return ratio, which combines return and volatility. Assets with high returns and low volatility are considered good assets [11][12] - Historically, gold has shown an upward trend, and the domestic bond market has been in a long - term bull market since 2018, both providing good holding experiences. The domestic stock market is range - bound, making timing crucial for investors [12] - In 2025 from January to July, due to factors such as US tariff policies and the entry of market - stabilizing funds, the risk - return ratios of various assets changed significantly. Gold's ratio increased, domestic equities improved, and pure - bond indices deteriorated [2][12] 2. The Unified Framework for Major Asset Classes - Asset price movements have three phases: rising, falling, and sideways. The key to research and investment is to find the inflection points between these phases. The pricing of stocks, bonds, and gold can be unified under the framework of liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior [3][16] - Liquidity refers to the ease of obtaining funds in the market. Loose monetary policies usually lead to more funds flowing into the capital market, driving up asset prices [3][17] - Risk preference reflects investors' expectations and confidence in the future. It is influenced by economic fundamentals and policy expectations, and has a significant impact on asset pricing [18][19] - Institutional behavior affects the market in two ways: strengthening short - term trends and having a structural impact on specific sectors [4][20] 3. Equities: Risk Preference is Key - Stock market pricing can be simply measured by the price - earnings ratio, and risk preference is a crucial factor. High risk preference leads to more optimistic pricing, while low risk preference can cause prices to fall [21] - The balance of margin trading can be used to measure market risk preference. An increase in the balance indicates rising risk preference, and vice versa [21] - The driving factors for risk preference in the stock market include corporate earnings and policy expectations. Different driving factors require different investment strategies [26][31] 4. Bonds: Monetary Policy is the Lifeline - The main ways to obtain returns in the bond market are through coupon payments, leverage, and duration. Monetary policy and the money market are vital for the bond market [33][35] - The net lending scale of the banking system can be used to judge the stability of the money market. Policy changes and institutional behavior can also have a significant impact on the bond market [35][40] 5. Gold: De - dollarization is the Main Line - Gold is globally priced. Its price is affected by global liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior, especially the gold - buying behavior of central banks [46] - Historically, gold was negatively correlated with the real US dollar interest rate. However, since 2020, the relationship has become positive, indicating a change in the pricing logic due to the de - dollarization process [46][50] - As the de - dollarization trend continues, central banks' increased gold purchases support the price of gold, and gold is expected to benefit from this trend [50][52]

Market Performance - A-shares led global equity markets with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.49% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 5.85%[4] - The implied volatility of the 50ETF rose to 19.78%, indicating increased market uncertainty[4] - The Dow Jones reached a new high with a gain of 1.53%, while the Nasdaq experienced a slight decline of 0.58%[4] Bond Market Insights - The 30-year government bond futures fell by 1.43%, reflecting significant adjustments in the domestic bond market[4] - The negative correlation between stocks and bonds reached a historical high, highlighting the "see-saw effect" in market dynamics[4] Commodity Trends - International commodities showed strength, with Brent crude oil up by 2.14% and COMEX gold rising by 1.02%, driven by geopolitical risks and inflation hedging[4] - Domestic commodity prices generally declined, with the South China Commodity Index down by 0.44%[4] Currency Movements - The US dollar index decreased by 0.13%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.24%[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - For bonds, focus on high-grade credit bonds and adjust duration flexibly in a low-risk environment[5] - In overseas equities, consider opportunities in interest-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar[5] - For A-shares, maintain an overweight position in technology growth sectors, particularly electronics and AI hardware[5] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the accelerated market for interest rate cut expectations in September, risk - averse assets will be suppressed, while silver, which is positively correlated with risk appetite, will have a catch - up rally, and the increase of silver will be greater than that of gold [2][28] - The US economy is under pressure despite some positive economic data, and the US economic data shows a mixed picture with high economic resilience [3][16] - The RMB exchange rate has good resilience, and its impact on gold is limited, so it is not a key consideration [4][24] Summary by Directory 1. Chapter 1: Market Review - In the short - term, gold and silver may rise synchronously under the impetus of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. In the medium - term, their trends will diverge, with gold in a high - level shock and silver entering an accelerated upward trend. However, the rise of silver will be affected by the short - term fluctuations of gold [10] 2. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting increased the market's bet on a September interest rate cut, and the market fully digested the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the end of the year [13] - US retail sales in July had a relatively large month - on - month increase for two consecutive months, and the year - on - year increase was also significant. The number of initial jobless claims last week reached a new high since June, and the number of continued jobless claims reached the highest level since November 2021. The US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI initial value reached the highest level since May 2022 [13][15] - Russia is ready to negotiate on the Ukraine issue in various forms, and Putin proposed to raise the level of the direct negotiation delegation between Russia and Ukraine [15] - The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July, and economic activity growth slowed down in the first half of the year, with inflation slightly high and high uncertainty in the economic outlook [15] 3. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The US economic data shows a mixed picture. Although there are some positive signs in retail sales and manufacturing PMI, the employment situation is deteriorating, and inflation remains high, indicating that the US economy still has high resilience [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The US and the EU reached a new trade agreement, with the US imposing tariffs on some EU goods and the EU making corresponding concessions and procurement plans. Trump and Putin's meeting may have a positive impact on global political stability. Trump also imposed additional tariffs on Indian and some high - tech products [19] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US employment data is poor, the non - manufacturing index is weak, but the service industry PMI is at a high level. Crude oil prices are affected by production cuts and geopolitical situations, and the prices of US stocks, copper, and crude oil may strengthen further due to the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [20] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. Although China's economic data in July is weak, the inflow of foreign capital and the rise of the stock market support the RMB exchange rate. Its impact on gold is limited [4][24] 4. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The market believes that a September interest rate cut by the Fed is highly likely, and the market will focus on the magnitude of the interest rate cut. Silver will have a catch - up rally, and its increase will be greater than that of gold [2][28]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current market rally is mainly driven by risk appetite, with investors' bullish sentiment leading to continuous capital inflows and forming a positive feedback loop. The correlation between the current market and fundamentals is low. In the absence of policy cooling, the strong market trend is expected to continue [3] - Key factors to watch include domestic policy trends and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies [4] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - For intraday trading, refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [5] Trend Strategy - Adopt a long - position approach. The core operating ranges for IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are 4262 - 4482 points, 2868 - 3001 points, 6606 - 7049 points, and 7091 - 7569 points respectively [5] Cross - variety Strategy - Given the potential rotation in the market under bullish sentiment, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for cross - variety strategies [6] Group 4: Market Review and Data Global Index Performance - Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.53%, the S&P 500 rose 0.27%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.58%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 2%, Germany's DAX rose 0.02%, and France's CAC40 rose 0.58%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.72% and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.27%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.49% [9] Domestic Index Performance - Since 2025, the ChiNext Index has led the gains among major domestic indices. Last week, all major domestic indices rose, with the ChiNext Index leading the way [7][9] Industry Performance in Indexes - In the CSI 300 Index, the telecommunications and information sectors had significant gains last week. In the CSI 500 Index, the information and telecommunications sectors also performed well [11] Futures Market Performance - Last week, the IF futures contract had the largest increase and the largest amplitude among the major futures contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both rebounded [13][14][15] Index Valuation - As of August 15, the P/E ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 15.89 times, 13.46 times, 11.49 times, 30.33 times, and 41.17 times respectively [20][21] Market Fundamentals - The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are important indicators of market capital inflows. Last week, the capital interest rate rebounded, and the central bank had a net capital injection [23]

Group 1 - In July, gold prices experienced a moderate increase, with London afternoon gold prices rising by 0.3% in USD and Shanghai afternoon benchmark prices increasing by 0.5% in RMB, driven by inflation concerns and multiple risk factors offsetting the negative impact of a stronger dollar [1] - Year-to-date, the RMB gold price has risen over 22%, significantly outperforming most domestic assets [1] - The World Gold Council anticipates that gold jewelry consumption will enter a traditional peak season, potentially improving upstream physical demand, although consumer purchasing power remains a concern [1] Group 2 - In July, the outflow of gold ETFs in the Chinese market amounted to approximately 7 million RMB, with total holdings decreasing by 3 tons to 197 tons, indicating a negative trend in gold ETF demand [4][6] - The decline in gold ETF demand is attributed to improved investor risk appetite following better-than-expected GDP data and strong stock market performance, which has led to increased market sentiment [6] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a slight increase in gold outflow of 3 tons month-on-month and a minor year-on-year increase of 4 tons, although the demand remains significantly below the ten-year average, highlighting ongoing weakness in the jewelry sector [3] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China has announced an increase in gold reserves for nine consecutive months, purchasing 2 tons in July, raising the total gold reserves to 6.8% of foreign exchange reserves [7][8] - In the first half of 2025, gold imports were weak, with net imports in June dropping to 50 tons, a 45% decrease month-on-month, and a total of 323 tons imported in the first half of 2025, marking a relatively low level compared to previous years [9]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration issued a detailed implementation plan for the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, which is expected to stimulate consumption and support domestic demand while potentially delaying overall interest rate cuts [1] - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining policy continuity and stability, with a focus on solidifying credit support and preventing fund circularity, indicating a shift towards structural regulation rather than an increase in total credit [2] - The current market shows a strong stock performance but weak bond performance, with multiple factors such as tax period cash flow tightening and rising stock market volumes contributing to a downward adjustment in the bond market [3] Group 2 - The bond market's adjustment is limited due to the need for further recovery in domestic demand, and stability in the bond market requires signals of liquidity support from the central bank [3] - The central bank's increased reverse repurchase operations on August 19 showed initial signs of stabilization in the bond market, with attention on the upcoming MLF operations and fluctuations in funding rates [3] - The report highlights the need to address excessive low-price competition in certain industries and promote consumption to achieve reasonable price recovery, which will be a key policy direction moving forward [2]