市场动态点评 研究助理：钟渝梅 执业证号：S0100124080017 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com ➢ A 股年内新高，美股历史新高，这场联袂的上涨"戏码"，还能持续多久？ A 股、美股共振：复盘与展望 2025 年 07 月 07 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 分析师：张云杰 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 执业证号：S0100525020002 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com 如果回到年初，可能难以现象在中美贸易摩擦下中美股市竟然可以同步地进入 "高光"时刻，回过头来看，我们觉得有三个特征是值得关注的：首先，4 月以 来的本轮上涨，A 股的发动要更早，这既体现了政策的响应速度、也反映了资金 偏好的变化；其次，从结构上看，中美都有自己的核心资产。相较而言，美股的 "回补"特征很明显、兜兜转转又回到靠大型科技公司拉指数的节奏；而 A 股则 是靠金融等权重股稳步推动中枢上涨。第三则外部核心变量——美元的不同，我 们 ...

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基 础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有据。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：六亿居士 来源：雪球 前几天 ， 61和两个朋友聊天 。 一个是体制内老同学 ， 收入不高但胜在稳定 。 过去三年他定投沪深300 ， 虽然账户反复波动 ， 最近反而赚钱了 。 他笑着说 ： " 还好我不是靠投资吃饭的 ， 不然即便你提醒 ， 我也早就 扛不住了 。 " 另一个做互联网产品 ， 自2021年年中开始定投恒生科技 ， 自信来源于对行业的判断 。 结果到 2023年年底时不得不遗憾离场 ， 他叹了口气 ： " 我其实知道长期会好 ， 但那时候失业了 ， 心态不稳 ， 真的扛不动 。 " 是啊 ， 我们常听人说 " 长期主义 " ， 但长期主义的前提 ， 是我们能在市场下行时不被生活打 断 ， 不被现金流拖垮 。 今天这篇反思 ， 我们不谈市场 ， 不谈估值 ， 只谈 ： 我们靠什么吃饭 ？ 能扛多大风浪 ？ ...

上周五（ 7 月 4 日）， A 股市场全天冲高回落，三大指数涨跌不一。当日股票 ETF （含跨 境 ETF ，下同）市场净流出 13 亿元。其中，宽基 ETF 净流出金额居前，港股市场 ETF 净 流入居前。 【导读】上周五股票 ETF 市场净流出 13 亿元 中国基金报记者 张燕北 回顾上周股票 ETF 的资金流向，除周三外，其余交易日均出现资金净流出。业内人士认为， 外部风险缓和叠加稳增长政策持续发力，近期市场整体呈现震荡上行态势。股票 ETF 资金净 流出明显，或是由于部分短期资金选择获利了结、兑现前期收益。 Wind 数据显示，截至 7 月 4 日，全市场 1135 只股票 ETF 总规模达 3.6 万亿元。按照成 交均价测算，当日净流出资金为 13.02 亿元。 股票 ETF 单日净流出 13 亿元 华夏基金认为，当前中证全指的市盈率分位数已经回升到近 5 年 92% 分位。说明在上半年 演绎后，市场估值修复已较为充分。在总体盈利底部企稳的基准判断下，往后看，价格的进 一步上升需要盈利增速的持续改善。 展望后市，汇丰晋信基金指出，随着外部扰动整体趋于温和、美联储降息时点临近，叠加国 内进入政策发力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market has experienced a significant reshuffling, driven by a notable recovery in market risk appetite, as the US dollar continues its weak performance in 2025, with a cumulative decline of approximately 10% in the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since 1973 [1][2]. Group 1: US Dollar Performance - The US dollar index closed at 97.04 on July 4, 2025, with a decline of 0.08%, remaining at near historical lows [1]. - The labor market showed resilience with 147,000 new non-farm jobs added in June, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, and the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [1]. - Goldman Sachs now anticipates the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, earlier than the previously expected December, adding pressure on the dollar [1]. Group 2: Performance of Non-USD Currencies - The euro traded around 1.17 against the dollar, closing at 1.1766 with a gain of 0.11%, supported by rising inflation in the Eurozone reaching the European Central Bank's target of 2% [2]. - The Chinese yuan showed relative stability, with the midpoint rate fluctuating within a reasonable range, reflecting the People's Bank of China's efforts to maintain adequate liquidity [2]. - The British pound remained relatively high despite some fluctuations, indicating cautious optimism regarding the UK economy [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment Changes - A significant easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, has reduced market risk aversion, impacting demand for traditional safe-haven currencies like the dollar and yen [2]. - The Japanese yen's performance is mixed, facing pressure from reduced safe-haven demand while also being supported by expectations of potential adjustments to the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy [3]. - The return of a "risk-on" mode has led to a general rise in stock markets and positively influenced the foreign exchange market, with commodity currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars showing notable performance [3].

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：继续回落；白银：高位震荡 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银中性 价格区间：760-800元/克、8700-9100元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 | | | 国际黄金期现价格及价差 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合 | 期货收盘价(连 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦现货 | COMEX黄金连续 | | | 约):COMEX黄金 | 续):COMEX黄金 | | COMEX黄金主力 | COMEX黄金主力 | | 2025-07-04 | 3425.60 | 3332.50 | 3336.94 | -88.66 | -93.1 ...

为何美股强劲而商品市场滞涨 风险厌恶还是偏好 能动摇 黄金牛市根基吗？ 2025年07月06日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 上周国际现货金价以3271.90美元开盘，最高上试3365.39美元，最低下探3247.11美元，报收3335.00美元，上涨61.61美元，涨幅1.88%，振幅3.61%，周K 线呈震荡回升中阳线。 上周美元指数以97.21点开盘，最高上试97.42点，最低下探96.36点，报收96.98点，下跌260点，跌幅0.26%，振幅1.09%，周K线呈震荡下行小阴线，再创 三年新低。 上周wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以6719.49点开盘，最高上试6948.73点，最低下探6623.37点，报收6866.84点，上涨143.73点，涨幅2.14%，振幅 4.84%，周K线呈震荡上行中阳线，周收盘再创历史新高。 上周： 现货银价上涨2.60%，振幅4.65%，报收36.92美元； 现货铂金价格上涨3.81%，振幅8.37%，报收1390.96美元； 现货钯金价格上涨0.26%，振幅6.46%，报收1134.77美元； NYMEX原油价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector in A-shares has shown significant growth since April, with companies like New China Life Insurance nearing historical highs and China People's Insurance Group reaching a six-year peak, indicating a bullish market trend for insurance stocks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent rise in insurance stocks is attributed to both funding and fundamental factors. Institutional investors have increased their allocation to insurance stocks due to their potential to outperform indices and higher elasticity in a low-interest-rate environment [2] - Insurance companies are expected to enhance their equity allocation, positioning themselves as a "second flag bearer" in the bull market due to the expansion of equity risk appetite among various institutions [2] Group 2: Fundamental Factors - The insurance sector is benefiting from macroeconomic improvements and a favorable capital market environment, with expectations of enhanced performance for insurance companies as the economy recovers [3] - The cost of liabilities for life insurance is expected to improve, with a projected decrease in the preset interest rate for insurance products, which could lower the rigid liability costs [3] - The growing emphasis on commercial health insurance is creating new growth opportunities, supported by national policies that promote a multi-tiered medical security system [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts emphasize the importance of asset-liability matching for insurance stocks, which is crucial for determining their "real value" in a low-interest-rate environment [4] - The ongoing policy guidance aimed at reducing liability costs and expense ratios is expected to enhance profit levels in the life insurance sector, with projections indicating a potential turning point in effective business value returns by 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share insurance stocks have shown significant gains since April, with New China Life Insurance nearing historical highs and China People's Insurance Group reaching a six-year high, indicating a bullish market trend for insurance stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - A-share insurance sector rose by 0.74% recently, with intraday gains exceeding 1%, attracting market attention [1] - In the H-share market, both New China Life and China People's Insurance have seen approximately 200% growth over the past year, reaching historical highs [1] Group 2: Funding and Investment Logic - Analysts attribute the rise in insurance stocks to both funding and fundamental logic, with a focus on market fund allocation behavior [2] - Insurance stocks are favored by active equity funds due to their potential to outperform indices and higher elasticity in a low-interest, low-credit spread environment [2] - Institutional investors previously had lower allocations to the insurance sector compared to index weights, indicating room for increased equity allocation [2] Group 3: Fundamental Factors - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery and improved capital market conditions, with a positive outlook for company performance [3] - The insurance industry's operating characteristics are significantly pro-cyclical, suggesting that both liability and investment sides will improve with economic recovery [3] - Recent data indicates a marginal improvement in the interest spread that previously suppressed insurance stock valuations, with expected decreases in life insurance liability costs [3] Group 4: Long-term Growth Drivers - The emphasis on commercial health insurance is creating new growth opportunities, supported by national policies promoting a multi-tiered medical security system [3] - Companies like China People's Insurance have highlighted the potential for closer integration between basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance, indicating substantial growth potential in this area [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts emphasize the importance of asset-liability matching for insurance stocks' true value, particularly in a low-interest environment [4] - The improvement in liability costs and the stable returns from asset allocation are expected to enhance profitability stability for insurance companies [4] - Predictions suggest that the effective business value yield may reach a turning point by 2025, with a potential upward trend in interest spreads starting in 2026 [4]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250704 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：6 月美国非农大超预期，"大而美"法案过关待签署 海外方面，美国 6 月非农新增就业 14.7 万人，连续四月超预期，4-5 月合计上修 1.6 万 人；失业率意外降至 4.1%，平均时薪环比放缓至 0.2%，市场基本消化 7 月不降息，风险偏 好再度打开，美股齐涨，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.34%，金价下跌。然而从结构上看仍存隐忧： 6 月非农新增岗位中近半数来自政府部门，私营部门就业增长依旧疲弱，与此前爆冷的 ADP 就业数据（私营部门）相呼应。美国"大美丽"法案仍在众议院险些过关，特朗普预计将于 周六清晨正式签署。 国内方面，A 股缩量上涨，两市成交额回落至 1.33 万亿，风格上创业板、深证成指表 现占优，行业上电子、生物科技领涨，美越关税协议落地、对华科技制裁放松，均有助于修 复市场风险偏好。在内需乏力、物价依旧偏低迷的背景下，供给侧优化正逐步落地并加快推 进，工信部：依法整治光伏 ...