非农就业数据重要性体现在三方面：一是及时反映经济状况，含丰富就业与收入信息，因家庭开支占美 国经济2/3，能预测经济走向；二是影响美联储货币政策，是其制定政策的关键依据；三是常超出预期 引发市场波动。市场反应并非绝对，一般数据高于预期利好美元、利空黄金，反之则反，但受风险偏好 等因素影响可能反向波动，且波动持续时间较短。 非农就业数据是美国经济的重要晴雨表，影响金融市场预期和美联储政策，其市场反应受数据与预期差 异及风险偏好等因素影响。 ...

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 风险偏好主导资产表现，权益关注风格切 换 ——资产配置月报 202602 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 提 名 沃 什 不 改 美 元 信 用 弱 化 格 局 ： | 2026-02-03 | | --- | --- | | 20260202 多资产配置周报 | | | 预期的变化利好中盘蓝筹：20260126A 股 | 2026-01-28 | | 风格及行业配置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 202601 | | 有关分析师的申 ...

Group 1 - The chief economist of Zheshang Securities, Li Chao, emphasizes the necessity of maintaining an active fiscal policy with a certain level of deficit for 2026 [1] - Li Chao indicates that a moderately loose monetary policy will likely continue, with potential interest rate cuts still on the table [1] - The focus for 2026 should shift towards the importance of consumption as a key counter-cyclical variable, contrasting with the past where real estate was the main counter-cyclical factor [1] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market in 2026 should not overly focus on interest rates but rather on risk appetite, suggesting that a sustained optimistic market sentiment could lead to a prolonged "slow bull" market through valuation increases [1]

- 比特币大跌，至特朗普当选总统以来的最低点； - 美元和美债收益率小幅下跌。 表面上看，这是一个普通的交易日，但实际上这是一个"风险转移"的交易日。 第一，黄金和白银的强势反弹，掩盖了下跌的声音——美股与比特币同步下跌，才是"真正的主线"—— 这是一场被世界忽略的下跌。 来源：华尔街情报圈 ——把"最拥挤的交易"先踢出去。 又是一个令人惊诧的交易日： - 黄金和白银强势反弹，金价接近5000美元，银价接近90美元； - 美国股市全线下跌，道琼斯指数跌0.34%，标普500指数跌0.84%，纳斯达克指数跌1.43%； - 比特币大跌，不是因为它本身出了什么事，而是它被当成了风险偏好最纯粹的表达（提前报警）。所 以它总是先跌、跌得更狠。 如果这是一次具有传导性质的下跌，那么还会传导至其他"拥挤交易"。 第二，黄金、白银在涨，但涨势"并不张扬"——金价在5000美元附近犹豫，银价在90美元附近出现回吐 ——如果这是趋势性行情，它们不会走得这么犹豫。更像前期快速下跌后的技术修复，而非确认开启一 轮涨势（是在"恢复体力"，而不是"起跑"）。黄金收盘站上5140美元（最好连续两个交易日）才能算是 重新上涨的开始。 第三 ...

英伟达CEO黄仁勋周二否认了与OpenAI交易生变的传闻。他在接受媒体采访时明确表示，公司投资OpenAI的 计划仍在"按计划推进"，否认了近期有关双方关系紧张的市场传闻。他强调："完全没有争议，这些说法纯属 无稽之谈......没有任何戏剧性，一切都在按计划推进......我们非常乐意与OpenAI合作。"黄仁勋进一步确认，英 伟达将参与OpenAI下一轮融资，他称这将是"史上最大规模的私募融资"。 Ritholtz财富管理公司CEO Josh Brown表示："我认为每年都会出现一两次这类行情。诱因总不相同，但结果总 是相似——前期涨势中最受欢迎的交易会遭遇彻底打击。风险偏好正在从所有科技相关领域撤出。" 当前，美国政策不确定性仍高，美国劳工统计局（BLS）称因部分停摆，原定于周五公布的非农就业报告将推 迟发布。美国劳工统计局副局长艾米莉-利德尔在一份声明中表示："2026年1月的《就业形势报告》将不会按 原计划于2月6日（周五）发布。该报告将在政府资金恢复后重新安排发布日期。"目前，尚不清楚美国商务部 是否会因华盛顿的僵局而面临报告延迟。此项决定正值经济数据密集发布周，而本周原本将以非农就业报告 （亦称 ...

对于后市，金瑞期货评论表示，佤邦地区1月进口量预计环比持平，锡加工费上调，冶炼环节利润修复 预期升温。需求端受锡价高位压制，下游企业补库意愿持续低迷，市场整体维持谨慎观望态势。展望后 市，尽管锡矿供应存在环比修复预期，但供应依旧偏紧，叠加地缘持续紧张与光伏抢出口支撑，沪锡价 格预计宽幅震荡。 （文华综合） 需求方面呈现结构性分化，传统应用领域如消费电子、马口铁等表现平淡，终端订单未见明显起色；但 新能源汽车轻量化部件及AI服务器用焊料等新兴场景带来的中长期需求前景，持续为锡价注入支撑逻 辑。当前下游加工企业开工率整体平稳，未现大幅波动。综合供需两端，锡市目前仍处于紧平衡状态， 但随着原料供应边际宽松，市场正从"紧缺预期"向"供需再平衡"过渡，价格上行弹性可能受到抑制。 近日贵金属暴跌，恐慌情绪蔓延至有色金属板块，沪锡夜盘大幅下挫，主力合约一度跌超12%，白盘市 场情绪修复，沪锡跌幅收窄至6.7%，报383340元/吨。此轮急跌的导火索在于凯文·沃什被正式提名为美 联储主席人选，其偏鹰派的政策倾向引发投资者对货币政策收紧和美元走强的担忧，风险偏好迅速降 温，带动整个有色金属板块承压。叠加此前沪锡持续上涨，已积累 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market sentiment is weak. Risk - asset market sentiment has declined sharply, and the A - share market is under pressure. The bond market shows a differentiated trend, with ultra - long bonds being relatively strong. Precious metals have erased last month's gains, and various commodity markets are facing different degrees of pressure or fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Category Equity Indexes - Affected by the commodity sector, the risk - asset market sentiment has dropped rapidly, and the risk preference has significantly decreased. The A - share market has declined under pressure. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, wait for stabilization, and hold bilateral call options [2]. Treasury Bonds - The decline in the equity and commodity markets has raised concerns about the redemption of fixed - income + product net values, making the bond market cautious. The medium - and short - term bonds are oscillating and slightly retracting, while the ultra - long - term bonds are supported by the decline in risk preference. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield faces significant resistance around 1.8% and may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.85% in the short term. The T2603 contract may oscillate in the range of 108 - 108.3. It is recommended to maintain range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy, pay attention to flattening for the curve strategy, and arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival [2]. Precious Metals - After the large - scale decline in the "leveraged funds" market, precious metals have erased last month's gains. The silver price may fluctuate greatly in the range of 70 - 110 US dollars. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before allocating and buying at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options for gold. A light - position long position in the gold - silver ratio arbitrage can be considered. Platinum and palladium prices will enter a consolidation phase and should be temporarily observed [2]. Shipping - The EC futures price is oscillating downward, with a cautious and bearish outlook [2]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: After the steel mills' restocking is realized, the ore price is under pressure. It is advisable to short at around 800 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in Shanxi has loosened, and the Mongolian coal follows the futures price fluctuations. The futures price is oscillating downward. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Coke**: The price increase of mainstream coke enterprises has been implemented, and the port trading price is stable. The futures price is oscillating downward. It is advisable to view it as oscillating and slightly strong, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800, and go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Silicon Ferros**: There is no significant contradiction between supply and demand, and attention should be paid to HeSteel's February pricing. It will oscillate widely in the range of 5500 - 5900 [2]. - **Manganese Silicos**: Affected by macro - sentiment, it is operating weakly, with a wide - range oscillation in the range of 5600 - 6000 [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to the expectation of balance - sheet reduction and the pressure on risk preference, the copper price has retreated from its high level. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Frequent maintenance of alumina plants at the end of the year has led to a strong and oscillating futures price. The short - term decline in the ore price is limited. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options at the lower price limit and short unilaterally at high prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: After the concentrated profit - taking of long - position funds, the futures price has reached the limit - down. It is advisable to pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23500 and go long on dips [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price has adjusted following the limit - down of the aluminum price. It is advisable to refer to the operation range of 21500 - 23500 and conduct an arbitrage of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has retreated from its high level, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is advisable to pay attention to the support around 24000, wait and see in the short term, and go long at low prices in the long term [2]. - **Tin**: Due to the decline of US technology stocks and the increasing expectation of Fed tightening, the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors have significantly declined, and the tin price has reached the limit - down. It is recommended to participate cautiously in the short term and try a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [2]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has weakened significantly, and the nickel price has dropped sharply during the day. It is advisable to conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range for the main contract of 128000 - 140000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: Under the pressure of the macro and raw material sides, the futures price has dropped sharply during the day. It will adjust weakly, with a reference range for the main contract of 13200 - 14500 [2]. New Energy Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rose in the morning under the influence of production cuts and then declined in the afternoon. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 8200 - 9200 [2]. - **Polysilicon**: After a large - scale decline, the polysilicon futures price has rebounded. It is oscillating at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Under macro - pressure and with the exhaustion of positive factors, the futures price has significantly declined and adjusted. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously, as the risk of going long against the trend is relatively high [2]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Due to the collapse of the cost side, PX is oscillating weakly in the short term, with a short - term oscillation range of 7200 - 7600, and short - term long - position operations are recommended [2]. - **PTA**: Under the expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, the driving force before the festival is limited. PTA is oscillating at a high level in the short term, with a short - term oscillation range of 5200 - 5500. Short - term long - position operations and low - level positive arbitrage of TA5 - 9 are recommended [2]. - **Short - fiber**: With a weak supply - demand expectation, it follows the raw material price fluctuations. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA, and it is advisable to shrink the processing fee on the futures price when it is high [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The operating rate of bottle - grade PET plants has increased in February, and it is expected that the plants will accumulate inventory seasonally, suppressing the increase of the processing fee. The unilateral operation of PR is the same as that of PTA. The main - contract processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 400 - 550 yuan/ton. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of shrinking the processing fee when it is high and sell the put option PR2604 - P - 5900 when the price is high [2]. - **Ethanol (EG)**: In February, MEG faces significant inventory - accumulation pressure, with a near - term weak and long - term strong supply - demand situation. The EG2605 price is under pressure above, oscillating in the range of 3700 - 4100. It is advisable to pay attention to the low - level positive arbitrage opportunity of EG5 - 9 and sell the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 when the price is high [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has improved slightly, but the driving force is limited under the suppression of high inventory. It follows the price fluctuations of raw materials and downstream styrene. It should be treated with caution and bearishness, and the EB - BZ spread should be shrunk when it is high [2]. - **Styrene**: Under the expectation of high valuation and weak supply - demand, the price is under pressure. It should be treated with caution and bearishness, and the EB - BZ spread should be shrunk when it is high [2]. - **LLDPE**: The trading volume is weak, mainly for hedging purchases. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **PP**: With weak supply and demand, the price is oscillating. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Methanol**: After the geopolitical situation eases, the price has dropped significantly, and the basis has slightly strengthened. The previous long - position orders have been stopped for profit [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals have not improved, and it is mainly adjusting weakly and stably. A high - short strategy on rebounds is recommended [2]. - **PVC**: With weak demand support, the futures price has declined. PVC may enter a wide - range oscillation, and a short - term low - buying strategy is recommended, while short - position orders should be temporarily observed [2]. - **Urea**: The market trading atmosphere has weakened, and new orders are slow to follow up. The short - term supply - demand improvement expectation is good, but the upward momentum may be insufficient. Short - position orders should be temporarily observed [2]. - **Soda Ash**: With a strong supply and weak demand, it is oscillating in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the changes in production lines and inventory [2]. - **Glass**: It is mainly oscillating in a weak supply - demand balance. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Natural Rubber**: The sharp decline in commodities has dragged down the rubber price. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The sharp decline in commodities has dragged down the BR price. Attention should be paid to the support of BR2604 around 12500 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply is abundant throughout the February market. Short - position orders can be held, paying attention to changes in macro - sentiment [2]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term boost from reduced supply, and the supply - demand game before the festival intensifies. It is oscillating at the bottom [2]. - **Corn**: With an increase in supply, the futures price has declined. It will oscillate in the range of 2250 - 2320 [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by macro - capital sentiment and the weakening of crude oil, the vegetable oil sector has generally declined. It is oscillating weakly in a range [2]. - **Sugar**: Due to the lack of fundamental news, it is affected by the overall macro - sentiment. It is oscillating weakly in a range [2]. - **Cotton**: Supported by the firm spot price, the price adjustment space is limited. Long - position orders can be held [2]. - **Eggs**: The egg price has weakened and turned down, and the stocking is coming to an end. It is oscillating in a range [2]. - **Apples**: As the commodity market sentiment cools down, the futures price is oscillating and falling. Long - position orders should be closed at an appropriate time [2]. - **Concentrated Juice**: The sales progress is slow, and the futures price is oscillating and falling. It will oscillate in the range of 8700 - 9200 [2]. Steel - Affected by the weak market sentiment, the steel price has declined, and it will move in the range of 3150 - 3350. The long position in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread can continue to be held [3].

[Table_Title] 2 月债市，关注资金与风偏 [Table_Title2] 利率月报 [Table_Summary] ►1 月债市，高开低走 回顾 1 月债市，长端利率经历预期之外的高开低走行情，供 需变化、风偏调整、机构行为、税期扰动成为主要影响变量。10 年国债收益率起步于 1.85%，月初高点一度摸至 1.90%，随后便 进入渐进回落阶段，月末收于 1.81%。 从结构性视角来看，尽管利率债行情不弱，但资管类机构似 乎倾向于在年初奠定高静态收益的基础，票息资产更受欢迎，3-5 年的中长期信用债、二永债表现更为占优。 ►2 月债市，四大关注 一是供需结构。继 1 月发行不及预期后，1 月 20 日前后地方 政府密集修正 2 月的地方债发行计划。按照最新测算结果，预计 2月国债、地方债净发行规模分别为4200、6500亿元，合计1.07 万亿元，总量上与 1 月的 1.18 万亿元规模相近，或在一定程度上 缓和年初供不应求的错配状态。从发行节奏上看，2 月政府债供 给压力集中前置的问题，同样值得关注，2 月首周政府债单周发 行量将达到 9767 亿元，约占 2 月总发行量的 53%，过于密集的 供 ...

Price Trends - The Business Price Index (BPI) reached a one-year high of 956 points as of January 30, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.3% compared to December 2022[3] - The energy index increased by 1.5% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous index surged by 21.7%[4] - The geopolitical threat index averaged 242.0 points, marking a month-on-month rise of 66.3%, the highest since March 2020[3] Commodity Prices - In the commodity price rankings for the week of January 26-30, 15 non-ferrous products saw price increases, with 8 of them rising over 5%, accounting for 36.4% of the monitored products[4] - Notable price increases included neodymium metal (11.14%), praseodymium oxide (10.07%), and neodymium oxide (9.69%)[4] - The South China Comprehensive Index rose by 8.6% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% compared to 3.0% in December[5] Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing price index for major cities showed mixed results, with Beijing and Guangzhou experiencing a narrowing decline of -0.5% and -1.0% respectively, while Shenzhen saw a slight increase of 0.4%[5] - The average listing prices for second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were 143.1, 180.3, 153.8, and 222.1 respectively, with varying month-on-month changes[5] Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) increased by 10.3% month-on-month, driven by rising prices in battery cells and silicon wafers[7] - Lithium carbonate futures prices surged by 27.6% month-on-month, while the DRAM industry composite index (DXI) rose by 25.8%, reaching a historical high[7] Logistics and Transportation - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) increased by 2.5% month-on-month, with the Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai-New York indices recording changes of 2.6% and -3.4% respectively[8] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rebounded by 14.4% month-on-month, following a decline of -26.7% in December[9] Food Prices - The average wholesale price of pork rose by 5.8% month-on-month, while the prices of 28 key vegetables fell by 0.2%[10] - The non-food price index (ICPI) recorded a slight decrease of -0.07% month-on-month, with transportation and communication services showing the highest increases[10]

2月2日早盘，全球最大的加密货币比特币一度跌破76000美元/枚，较2025年峰值时期下跌约40%。截至发稿，比特币回升至77746.86美元/枚。 市场追踪机构Coinglass数据显示，同期全球共有超16万人被爆仓。 | 总爆仓 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1小时爆仓 | $3233.76万 | 4小时爆仓 | $1.82亿 | | 多車 | $944.27万 | 念車 | $1.33亿 | | 卒単 | $2289.49万 | 卒車 | $4877.71万 | | 12小时爆仓 | $4.03亿 | 24小时爆仓 | $4.89亿 | | 名車 | $3.00亿 | 多車 | $3.55亿 | | 卒車 | $1.03亿 | 卒車 | $1.35亿 | 与此同时，在沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席后，市场也担心他可能会收紧金融体系中的现金，给加密货币市场带来压力。据报道，美联储的决策对加 密货币市场至关重要，因为加密货币往往表现出所谓的"风险偏好"特性。当利率高企时，美国国债等收益更为安全的资产更具吸引力，从而将资金从加 密货币等波动性较大的资产中分流。相反，较低 ...