Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a broad increase, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.76%, the S&P 500 by 0.77%, and the Nasdaq by 1.04% [1] - Bitcoin saw a decline of 1%, briefly falling below $63,000, while gold prices dropped nearly $100, failing to maintain the $5,200 level [1] - The market is shifting from a "tense state" to a "wait-and-see state," indicating a downgrade of risk rather than a complete risk removal [6] Group 2 - Trump's new tariff policy is expected to raise temporary tariffs from 10% to 15%, which may result in some EU tariffs exceeding the levels allowed by the U.S.-EU trade agreement [3][4] - Japan has requested assurances from the U.S. that its treatment under the new tariff regime will not be worse than the current agreement [5] - The correlation between gold and U.S. stocks has changed, with gold potentially reverting to its role as a "safe-haven asset" rather than a "liquidity asset" [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that cryptocurrencies are continuing to weaken alongside other risk assets due to concerns over artificial intelligence disruptions and tariff uncertainties [1][2] - On Monday, the net outflows from U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were approximately $203.8 million and $49.5 million, respectively, reflecting a cautious sentiment in the market [1][2] - The report suggests that as long as tariff uncertainties and stock market volatility persist, digital assets may fluctuate in sync with overall risk appetite rather than being driven by independent cryptocurrency narratives [1][2] Group 2 - According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), Bitcoin fell by 2.1% to $63,214, having previously touched a two-and-a-half-week low of $62,734 [1][2] - Ethereum decreased by 2.3% to $1,821, with an overnight low of $1,813 also marking a two-and-a-half-week low [1][2] - Other cryptocurrencies, such as Solana and XRP, also experienced declines exceeding 2% [1][2]

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 发布时间：2026-02-24 近期研究报告 《跨越化债边界，长久期城投债怎么 看？20260211》 - 2026.02.12 固收周报 节后债券交易逻辑有变化吗？ 研究所 ⚫ 交易逻辑变化不大，沿节前预设节奏进行 第一，节中消费、交运等景气数据的改善不乏亮点，但难以形成 对债市预期的显著冲击。 第二，节后风险偏好可能继续上行，但对债市的冲击也不会强于 节前。 第三，节后流动性无虞，降息进入"两会"前的观察窗口，预计 兑现概率不高，故债市交易情绪可能有所降温。 第四，大行年初负债相对宽松，是节前配置盘活跃度提升的主要 驱动，这条主线是阶段性的，在 3 月可能有所松动，二季度可能有变。 第五，超长期政府债的发行依然是主要关注因素，供需处于紧平 衡，3 月地方债发行计划明细增多，可能构成压力。 总之，节后债券的交易逻辑变化不大，依然沿着节前预设节奏进 行。对债市投资者而言，持仓过节之后，已经在 2 月获取了收益率小 幅下行的资本利得，继续博弈的胜率和赔率虽然不高 ...

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 23 日 [Table_Title] 节后债市应对指南 （一）2 月利率破位下行，三股推力 2 月以来，债市延续强势行情，10 年国债收益率成功突破 1.80%阻力位，由 1.81%下行至 1.78%。期间交易 型品种表现更为突出，5 年、30 年国债收益率均下行 4bp 至 1.54%、2.25%，5 年、7 年、10 年国开债收益率分 别下行 5bp、6bp、4bp 至 1.74%、1.86%、1.95%，3 年、5 年二级资本债收益率降幅更是达到 5bp、8bp。 长端利率超预期突破箱体的背后，主要有三股推力。首先是配置盘供需错位叙事或仍在延续。尽管 2 月政府 债发行速度较 1 月边际提升，单月净供给规模由 1.18 万亿元提升至 1.38 万亿元，但银行负债或始终处于相对充裕 的状态。2025 年 12 月与 2026 年 1 月，大型银行境内存款增幅分别为 1.59、4.17 万亿元，远超过去五年同期季 节性均值 0.03、2.75 万亿元；中小型银行增幅分别为 1.21、2.44 万亿元，同样位于历史同期高位水平。叠加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp sell-off in the cryptocurrency market has diminished, but liquidity is thin due to the U.S. holiday, indicating that a recovery is not yet assured [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The relative calm in the cryptocurrency market marks a significant change compared to the frantic sell-offs of recent months [1] - Precious metals continue to rise, exerting pressure on cryptocurrencies amid cautious risk appetite [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Bitcoin has increased by 0.9% to $69,498 after earlier declines, while Ethereum has risen by 1.7% to $1,989 [1] - On February 6, Bitcoin hit a 16-month low of $60,008, and Ethereum reached a nine-month low of $1,751 [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - A sustained recovery in the cryptocurrency market requires a revival in prices and market interest, especially in light of the anticipated "crypto winter" in 2025/26 [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of high interest rate expectations and tightening market liquidity, leading to concentrated sell-offs [2] - Gold prices fell sharply, reaching a low of $4878, with a significant drop of nearly $200 within half an hour, indicating a strong technical sell pressure [3] - The current market environment suggests that gold prices will be heavily influenced by inflation data and interest rate expectations, with potential for technical recovery if inflation weakens [2][3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices experienced a slight increase due to optimistic sentiment from slowing U.S. inflation data, overshadowing concerns about potential OPEC+ production increases [6] - Despite the slight rise, both Brent and U.S. crude oil recorded weekly declines, with Brent down approximately 0.5% and U.S. crude down 1% [6] - The market perceives stable inflation as a potential opportunity for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could support economic growth and enhance risk appetite in the oil market [6] Group 3: Trading Strategies and Market Behavior - New investors often struggle with frequent trading and lack of a strict trading plan, leading to significant losses from chasing market trends [1] - Key trading advice includes controlling risk exposure and focusing on market direction rather than frequent trading, especially in volatile environments [1] - The importance of following market trends and avoiding emotional trading decisions is emphasized, as many investors tend to hesitate in following the market momentum [9]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices softened in the European market as stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data and a decrease in unemployment rates reduced market expectations for a recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - New York gold futures remained below $5,100 per ounce, with a decline of 0.3% to $5,082.50 per ounce [1] - Silver prices also fell by 0.9%, reaching $83.16 per ounce [1] - The U.S. dollar index remained stable at 96.88 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Strong U.S. employment figures and a drop in unemployment rates have shifted market focus towards upcoming economic data [1] - Analysts from Saxo Bank noted that the recent volatility in the market has led to a normalization phase [1] Group 3: Seasonal Factors - The upcoming Chinese Spring Festival is expected to further suppress risk appetite and liquidity in the market [1]

Asset Allocation Insights - A-shares are focusing on mid-cap blue chips, with a neutral stance on bonds and US stocks, and a cautious outlook on gold in the short term[2] - The risk appetite in A-shares is shifting, with structural opportunities being the main focus amid overall market fluctuations[2] - Bond performance in February is expected to follow risk appetite trends, serving as a hedge against risk assets[2] Market Sentiment and Risk Assessment - Regulatory measures in January have led to a more balanced risk preference, with high-risk investors showing decreased appetite while low-risk investors gain confidence[9] - Trading sentiment across large, mid, and small-cap stocks has cooled, but medium-term uncertainty remains relatively stable[9] Industry and Sector Recommendations - Current price increases in cyclical goods are key indicators for asset allocation, with a positive outlook on sectors like chemicals, agriculture, and non-ferrous metals[30] - The report highlights two main drivers for price increases: industrialization in emerging economies and geopolitical tensions affecting import prices[30] Model and Strategy Suggestions - The recommendation includes increasing positions in mid-term bonds and focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and military technology for February[5] - The multi-asset allocation strategy suggests a combination of passive and active enhancements, with a focus on risk parity models for stock and bond allocations[48] Performance Metrics - The low-volatility strategy has achieved an annualized return of 11.8%, while the high-volatility strategy has reached 18.1% since 2025[9] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025[9]

Market Outlook - A-shares are focusing on mid-cap blue chips, with a neutral stance on bonds and US stocks, and a cautious outlook on gold in the short term[2] - Risk appetite in A-shares is shifting, with structural opportunities being the main focus amid overall market fluctuations[2] - The bond market is expected to continue following risk appetite trends, serving as a hedge against risk assets[2] Investment Strategy - The report recommends increasing allocations to mid-cap blue chips and sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, military, communication, and electronics[5] - A dual strategy of passive and active enhancement is suggested for stock-bond allocation, with a focus on increasing positions in mid-term bonds[48] Industry Insights - Price increases in cyclical goods are highlighted as key investment clues, particularly in the chemical, agricultural, and non-ferrous sectors[30] - Geopolitical tensions are raising global economic risk assessments, which is a fundamental driver for commodity price increases[30] Performance Metrics - The low-volatility strategy has achieved an annualized return of 11.8%, while the high-volatility strategy has reached 18.1% since 2025[9] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025[9] Risk Considerations - Extreme risk events could disrupt market expectations, and there is a risk of quantitative models failing to predict future trends[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold price oscillated and rebounded due to a political "black swan" event in the UK and active trading in the Japanese morning session. The premium of Shanghai Gold converged, and short - term volatility was high. It has not returned to the upward trend, so cautious operation is recommended. [4] - Silver price rose significantly again due to increased risk appetite. The premium of Shanghai Silver converged, and the price remained highly volatile without returning to the upward channel, also suggesting cautious operation. [5] - With the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and loose policies, high risk appetite, which supports gold and silver prices. However, the downward risks also increase. [10][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The UK political "black swan" event occurred. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields mostly fell, the US dollar index dropped, and COMEX gold futures rose 2.10% to $5084.20 per ounce. The basis was - 4.08, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 104,052 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below it. The main net position was long, and the long position increased. [4] - **Silver**: Risk appetite increased, and the silver price rose significantly again. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields mostly fell, the US dollar index dropped, and COMEX silver futures rose 8.00% to $83.05 per ounce. The basis was - 1123, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 62,559 kilograms to 349,900 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net position was long, and the long position increased. [5][6] 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: Today, pay attention to the US December retail sales and import price index, as well as the speeches of Fed officials. The political "black swan" in the UK and active trading in the Japanese morning session led to a stronger Asian stock market and a rebound in the gold price. The premium of Shanghai Gold converged to about - 1.8 yuan/gram, and the sentiment converged. CME and SHFE raised margins again, with high short - term volatility and the price not yet back in the upward trend, so cautious operation is needed. [4] - **Silver**: The political "black swan" in the UK and active trading in the Japanese morning session led to a stronger Asian stock market and a significant rebound in the silver price, which declined in the morning. The premium of Shanghai Silver converged, and the domestic sentiment cooled rapidly. The silver price remained highly volatile without returning to the upward channel, so cautious operation is recommended. [5] 3.3 Today's Focus - Time TBD: The International Energy Week opens in London, UK (February 10 - 12) [17] - 21:30: US December retail sales and import price index [4][17] - 23:00: The New York Fed releases the Q4 2025 household debt and credit report [17] - Next day 01:00: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack talks about the banking industry and economic outlook [17] - Next day 02:00: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks at an asset management forum [17] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and loose policies, high risk appetite, which makes it difficult for the gold price to fall. However, as all metals are strengthening, the downward risk of the gold price also increases. [10] - **Silver**: With the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and loose policies, high risk appetite, and there is still macro - level support. The sentiment of bullishness and investment is high. Although the sentiment has cooled slightly under regulatory pressure, the price has not declined. [14] 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold increased by 3.32% to 149,691 on February 9 compared with February 8, the short position decreased by 13.49% to 32,638, and the net position increased by 9.24% to 117,053. [33] - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Silver increased by 1.25% to 301,257 on February 9 compared with February 6, the short position increased by 2.04% to 203,025, and the net position decreased by 0.35% to 98,232. [35]