1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall black market is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation. Steel products show a seasonal situation of weak supply and demand, and there may still be capital outflows before the Spring Festival, leading to a decrease in market trading volume. The macro - level is calm and has little impact on prices [12]. - For iron ore, it is recommended to mainly short - allocate. The macro - level driving force has weakened, the supply - demand contradiction has continued to accumulate in the short term, and the price is restricted by the industrial chain profit. The strategy is to conduct range operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - For coal and coke, the current supply - demand contradiction in the market is general, and the inventory pressure is not large, providing some support for prices. However, due to the off - season effect, there is no continuous upward driving force, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Prudent operation is required [14]. - For ferroalloys, before the Spring Festival, the market trading is cold. The alloy fundamentals remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the prices will follow the black market and fluctuate within a narrow range before the Spring Festival [16] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Market Review - The closing prices of most futures and spot products in the black industry chain decreased from January 30 to February 6, 2026, except for the scrap steel whose price index increased by 0.61%. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2605 decreased by 1.63%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 0.92% [8] 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast Overall Market - Logic: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased, and the average daily hot - metal output also increased. The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market enters the holiday mode, showing a seasonal situation of weak supply and demand. There may be capital outflows before the festival, and the macro - level has little impact on prices [12]. - View: Low - level consolidation [12] Iron Ore - Logic: Macroscopically, the short - term inflation expectation has declined, and the employment has weakened marginally. The domestic economic recovery shows a pulsed characteristic. In terms of supply, although the external ore shipment is in the off - season, it is higher than the same period in previous years. The domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. In terms of demand, the domestic demand has slightly recovered, but the steel mill's profitability is weak, and the terminal demand is in the seasonal off - season. The steel mill's restocking is coming to an end, and the port inventory is at a high level [13]. - View: Short - allocate mainly, conduct range operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13] Coal and Coke - Logic: The coal and coke futures prices first rose and then fell due to the false rumor of production quota cuts in Indonesia. Recently, the overall trend of steel and ore has been weak, and the off - season restricts the rebound height. The domestic coal mines are starting to shut down for the holiday, and the output is expected to decline significantly. However, the downstream has stocked up in advance, and there is no continuous upward driving force [14]. - View: The supply - demand contradiction is general, and the inventory pressure is not large, providing support for prices. But due to the off - season, there is no continuous upward driving force, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Prudent operation is required [14] Ferroalloys - Logic: Overseas, the US manufacturing PMI has entered the expansion range, but the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense. Domestically, the three major PMI indices have declined. The prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures have slightly declined. In terms of supply, the output and operating rate of ferromanganese have slightly shrunk, and those of ferrosilicon have slightly increased. In terms of demand, the demand from steel mills has weakened, and the restocking is coming to an end. In terms of inventory, the inventory of ferromanganese has increased, and that of ferrosilicon has decreased slightly. In terms of cost, the manganese ore price is expected to remain firm, and the cost of ferrosilicon is well - supported [17]. - View: Before the Spring Festival, the market trading is cold. The alloy fundamentals remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the prices will follow the black market and fluctuate within a narrow range before the Spring Festival [17] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar** - Production: The weekly output last week was 191.68 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.15 and a year - on - year increase of 7.88. The long - process output was 162.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81 and a year - on - year decrease of 18.79. The short - process output was 28.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.34 and a year - on - year increase of 26.67 [20][23]. - Apparent demand: Last week, it was 147.64 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28.76 and a year - on - year increase of 16.09 [20]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 365.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39.52 and a year - on - year decrease of 119.45. The steel mill inventory was 153.65 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52 and a year - on - year decrease of 66.36. The total inventory was 519.57 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44.04 and a year - on - year decrease of 185.81 [27]. - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for January was 62 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 and a year - on - year increase of 72; for May, it was 143 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21 and a year - on - year increase of 88; for October, it was 96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 and a year - on - year increase of 96 [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil** - Production: The weekly output last week was 309.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 14.97 [31]. - Apparent demand: Last week, it was 305.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.87 and a year - on - year increase of 7.11 [31]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 280.45 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.12 and a year - on - year decrease of 36.92. The steel mill inventory was 78.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.50 and a year - on - year decrease of 18.20. The total inventory was 359.20 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.62 and a year - on - year decrease of 55.12 [35]. - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for January was - 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 and a year - on - year increase of 34; for May, it was - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17 and a year - on - year decrease of 4; for October, it was - 19 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 and a year - on - year increase of 18 [45] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory (45 ports): The total inventory this week was 17140.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 118.45 and a year - on - year increase of 1748.18. The Australian ore inventory was 7903.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 104.08 and a year - on - year increase of 1155.26. The Brazilian ore inventory was 5536.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47.54 and a year - on - year decrease of 427.29 [49]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory/consumption: The inventory was 10316.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 348.05 and a year - on - year increase of 821.90. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 36.55, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 and a year - on - year increase of 3.36. The daily consumption was 282.24 million tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 1.28 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.93 [60]. - 247 steel mills' operating rate/profitability: The blast furnace operating rate was 79.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The iron - making utilization rate was 85.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The profitability rate was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 12.13 percentage points [64]. - Global shipments (19 ports): The total global shipment this week was 2535.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 559.3 and a year - on - year increase of 200.4. The shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 1881.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 585.4 and a year - on - year decrease of 17.0 [68] 3.3.3 Coal and Coke - Coke inventory: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 976.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.53 and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7. The independent coke enterprises' inventory was 82.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7 and a year - on - year decrease of 74.0 [93]. - Coking coal inventory: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2998.56 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 84.18 and a year - on - year increase of 80.0 [100]. - Independent coke enterprises' average profit per ton of coke: Last week, it was - 10 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 45 and a year - on - year increase of 17 [105]. - Independent coke enterprises' capacity utilization rate and daily coke output: The capacity utilization rate last week was 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8. The daily coke output was 63.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.93 [109] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Spot prices: On February 6, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 36 yuan/dry ton degree, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 5. The spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 6520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 820 and a year - on - year increase of 120. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 and a year - on - year decrease of 680 [132]. - Manganese ore inventory: In the week of January 30, the total port inventory was 435.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.9 and a year - on - year increase of 42.3. The inventory in Tianjin Port was 332.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.5 and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8 [136]. - Output: The weekly output of ferromanganese was 190995 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1400 and a year - on - year decrease of 2345. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 [139][141]. - Demand: The weekly demand for ferromanganese from five major steel products was 116059 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1161 and a year - on - year increase of 2251. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 18497.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 261 and a year - on - year increase of 621 [143]. - Inventory: On February 6, the inventory of ferromanganese was 377800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3500 and a year - on - year increase of 227300. The inventory of ferrosilicon was 66860 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1040 and a year - on - year decrease of 9380 [147]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the steel industry, with expectations of price stability in the near term [11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a phase where raw material inventory is increasing, indicating that steel mills are at the end of their raw material stocking phase and at the beginning of steel production [11][12]. - The profitability of steel companies is reported at 39.4%, with a slight recovery in price margins observed, although companies are still facing losses of 22.3 yuan per ton [11][12]. - The market sentiment is cooling as demand weakens ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to a decline in trading activity and a cautious outlook for future prices [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The report notes an increase in iron ore imports and a slight rise in steel mill inventories, suggesting a stable bottom for the steel industry [11]. - The CITIC Steel Index decreased by 3.0%, underperforming the broader market by 1.7% [11]. 1.2 Sub-industry Fundamentals - In the Hebei region, hot-rolled coil prices have decreased by 20 yuan per ton, with a national average price of 3284 yuan per ton [12]. - The capacity utilization rate for hot-rolled steel mills is reported at 78.98%, with a weekly production of 3.0916 million tons [12]. - Social inventory of medium-thick plates decreased by 2.19 million tons, with the East China region seeing the most significant reduction [12]. 2.1 Profitability - The average profit margin for steel companies remains stable at 39.39%, with a slight increase in daily iron output to 2.2858 million tons [13]. 4.1 Steel Supply and Demand Data - The report indicates that the supply of iron ore is expected to exceed demand, with a significant increase in port inventories [14]. - The average price index for 62% Australian iron ore is reported at 106.05 USD per ton, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [14].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral outlook for the steel industry, with expectations of price stability in the near term [11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a phase where raw material inventory is increasing, and steel production is at an early stage. The expectation is that iron ore prices will decline due to the completion of spring raw material replenishment by steel mills [11][12]. - The profitability of steel companies is reported at 39.4%, indicating a stable bottom for the steel industry fundamentals. However, the market sentiment is weak as demand is expected to decrease with the approach of the Spring Festival [11][12]. - The report highlights a decrease in the utilization rate of hot-rolled steel mills to 78.98%, with a slight reduction in weekly production and an increase in inventory levels [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel industry is experiencing a slight recovery in price margins, with a week-on-week increase of 15.7 CNY, although companies are still facing losses of 22.3 CNY per ton [11]. - The CITIC Steel Index decreased by 3.0%, underperforming the broader market by 1.7% [11]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals - Hot-rolled steel prices in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have adjusted downwards by 20 CNY/ton, with a national average price of 3284 CNY/ton [12]. - The total inventory of medium-thick plates in the country is reported at 2.55 million tons, with a decrease of 2.19 million tons from the previous week [12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The average price index for 62% Australian iron ore in January was 106.05 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.6% from December [14]. - The report notes a significant increase in iron ore inventory at steel mills, with a total inventory increase of 11.38 million tons compared to the end of the previous month [14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - The operating rate of blast furnaces is reported at 79.53%, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.53 percentage points [13]. - The daily average pig iron production is 2.2858 million tons, which is an increase of 0.6 million tons from the previous week [13].

黑色产业链日报 2026/02/06 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2026.2.2 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、煤焦、铁合金） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BOOKSONOMIC | | 2026.1.30 | 2026.1.23 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 2026.1.30 | 2026.1.23 | 价格变动 | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2605 | 3128 | 3142 | -14 | -0.45% | HRB400E: Φ20: 汇总价格: 上海 | 3250 | 3270 | -20 | -0.61% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The steel market has neutral fundamentals with no significant contradictions, and steel prices are in a range - bound oscillation [3]. - The overall commodity market is strongly bullish, and iron ore prices deviate from fundamentals in the short - term. Iron ore supply and demand are both weak, but there is support from the steel industry chain, and the downside price space is limited [21]. - The coking coal market shows a stage - excess pattern currently. The supply - demand structure may improve around the Spring Festival, but the long - term trend is hard to change. If there is a combination of "domestic mine复产 exceeding expectations" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal - coke prices may face significant downward pressure [32]. - Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side, with silicon manganese suppressed by high inventory. Silicon iron has a slightly better fundamental situation, and in the short - term, ferroalloys are in a range - bound oscillation between the cost line and the previous pressure level [48]. - The soda ash market has an increasing supply expectation with new capacity coming on - stream. Although exports are high, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [62]. - The float glass market has a supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and supply uncertainties. The high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [86]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3211, 3128, and 3177 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3336, 3288, and 3311 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 month spreads of螺纹钢 and热卷 were 83 and 48 yuan/ton respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 49 and - 23 yuan/ton respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were - 34 and - 25 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The national aggregated price of螺纹钢 was 3317 yuan/ton; the aggregated prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and other places varied. The basis of螺纹钢 and热卷 in different contracts and regions also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio**: The ratios of 01螺纹/01铁矿 and 01螺纹/01焦炭 were both 4 and 2 respectively [17]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 760, 791.5, and 772.5 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of different contracts also changed [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily average hot metal output was 227.98 tons; the 45 - port desilting volume was 332.31 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 17022.26 tons, etc. [26]. Coal - Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month spreads of焦煤 and焦炭 changed. The盘面焦化利润 was - 24 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of different types of焦 coal and coke in various regions remained stable on January 30, 2026 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: The basis in Ningxia was 40 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 month spread was 104 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions were between 5350 - 5450 yuan/ton [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis in Inner Mongolia was 178 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 month spread was 108 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions were between 5620 - 5800 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1204, 1266, and 1299 yuan/ton respectively. The month spreads also changed [63]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of重碱 and轻碱 in different regions remained stable, and the spread between重碱 and轻碱 varied by region [63]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1056, 1167, and 1224 yuan/ton respectively. The month spreads and basis in different regions changed [87]. - **Sales and Production**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as沙河, Hubei, etc. were reported [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel products: The production recovery of finished steel products has slowed down. The apparent consumption of rebar has rebounded, leading to a shift from inventory accumulation to depletion, but the inventory change is flat month - on - month. In the subsequent consumption off - season, inventory may return to accumulation. The inventory is at a low level and shows a super - seasonal depletion. The inventory depletion speed of hot - rolled coils has accelerated marginally. Although the inventory base is large, it also shows a super - seasonal depletion, and the recent increase in warehouse receipts is obvious. The overall fundamentals are neutral, lacking driving forces, and the price fluctuates affected by the furnace charge end. It is supported by the cost end at the bottom and lacks upward driving forces at the top [3]. - Iron ore: The current dominant factor of iron ore prices is not its fundamentals but macro - expectations. Under the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation and slow resumption of production, the fundamentals cannot support the current high valuation, and there is no support for the price to continue to rise. However, after the price drops, the selling pressure is released, and steel mills have a rigid demand for replenishing inventory, so the price also has support at the bottom. Overall, it shows a wide - range oscillatory trend [21]. - Coal and coke: The accident at a factory in Inner Mongolia over the weekend may lead to a contraction in local steel supply, which can repair the profit of steel products on the futures market and support steel prices. The follow - up needs to focus on the event's handling results. If the event leads to stricter regulatory production restrictions in local areas, the progress of hot - metal production resumption may slow down, exacerbating the short - term oversupply contradiction of coking coal. In the long - term, it is necessary to focus on the change in macro - sentiment and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines after the Spring Festival. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected recovery of domestic supply" and "weakening of macro - sentiment", the long - term prices of coal and coke will face significant downward pressure [32]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are supported by the cost end at the bottom. In the short - term, after a correction, ferroalloys may show a bottom - oscillatory trend [47]. - Soda ash: Previously, the warming of the commodity market sentiment drove some low - valued varieties, and the futures price rose. The middle - stream of soda ash replenished inventory, but the elasticity was limited. From the perspective of fundamentals, as new production capacities gradually release output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. Currently, the expectation that the long - term supply of soda ash will remain at a high level remains unchanged. The inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and the number of furnace blockages is increasing. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. The high - level export of soda ash continues to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - Glass: There are rumors in the market that some production lines have ignition expectations, and the supply - demand expectation has deteriorated. Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, both the actual demand and the expected demand are weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - like movement. On the supply side, before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired or ignited, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. In addition, the policy's impact on supply cannot be ruled out. For example, there was news about the conversion of Hubei's petroleum - coke production lines to natural gas before. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent changes in supply expectations. In reality, regardless of the change in supply expectations, the high inventory in the middle - stream of glass needs to be digested, and the spot pressure still exists as the terminal enters the off - season [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: On January 21, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3192, 3117, and 3162 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3316, 3286, and 3305 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spread Data**: The 01 - 05 month - spread of rebar was 75 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 month - spread of hot - rolled coils was 30 yuan/ton on January 21, 2026 [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The summary price of rebar in China was 3318 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 78 yuan/ton on January 21, 2026; the summary price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 46 yuan/ton [9][11]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 21, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 752.5, 784, and 766.5 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 basis was 42 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average hot - metal output was 228.01 tons, the 45 - port desulfurization volume was 319.89 tons, the global shipping volume was 2929.9 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 16555.1 tons [26]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Spread and Profit Data**: On January 21, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was - 163.5 yuan/ton, the 09 - 01 spread of coke was - 113.5 yuan/ton, and the on - paper coking profit was - 25 yuan/ton [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: On January 21, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1620 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron Data**: On January 21, 2026, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 44 yuan/ton, the silicon - iron 01 - 05 spread was - 5542 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron spot price in Ningxia was 5320 yuan/ton [48]. - **Silicon Manganese Data**: On January 21, 2026, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 244 yuan/ton, the silicon - manganese 01 - 05 spread was 128 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton [49]. Soda Ash - **Futures Price and Spread Data**: On January 21, 2026, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1163, 1226, and 1270 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 spread was - 63 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 44 yuan/ton [62]. - **Spot Price and Spread Data**: On January 21, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, and the difference between heavy and light soda in North China was 0 yuan/ton [62]. Glass - **Futures Price and Spread Data**: On January 21, 2026, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1039, 1146, and 1200 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 spread was - 107 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan/ton [86]. - **Sales and Production Data**: On January 16, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 135, in Hubei was 90, in East China was 91, and in South China was 105 [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, steel products are supported by the cost side with limited downside, but lack upward drivers, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, with a high shipping level, slow steel - mill resumption, increasing port inventories, and high valuations, so the short - term price is weak but with limited downside [21] - The coking coal supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the surplus is not serious. The inventory structure is expected to improve, and the macro sentiment is the key factor for price trends [32] - Ferroalloys have large supply pressure, but are supported by the cost side, and may show bottom - oscillating trends after a correction [49] - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the long - term, with increasing over - supply expectations. High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream limit prices [63] - Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, and the high inventory in the mid - stream needs to be digested, with existing spot pressure [87] 3. Summary of Each Section Steel Products - **Price Data**: - On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day, and the month - spreads also showed different degrees of change. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3242 yuan/ton, up from 3165 yuan/ton on the previous day [4] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed slightly, and the basis also had corresponding fluctuations [8][10] - The roll - rebar spread and the spot roll - rebar price difference also showed different trends [15] - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable [18] Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The shipping volume of iron ore is at a moderately high level with a 12% year - on - year increase. The steel - mill resumption is slow, with a 1.5 - million - ton week - on - week decrease in molten iron production to 228 million tons. Port inventories are continuously accumulating, exceeding historical highs [21] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts generally decreased compared to the previous day, and the basis also changed. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract was 806.5 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Fundamentals**: The coking coal supply - demand structure is in surplus, but the surplus is not serious compared to previous years. With the improvement of demand and the reduction of domestic mine production during the Spring Festival, the inventory structure is expected to improve [32] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the coking coal and coke contract spreads, the basis, and the production profits all changed compared to the previous day and the previous week [33][35][36] Ferroalloys - **Fundamentals**: Silicon iron has started to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of silicon manganese has decreased week - on - week, but the inventory base is still large. The supply pressure of ferroalloys is large, but they are supported by the cost side [49] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the basis, contract spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese all changed compared to the previous day and the previous week [50][51] Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: With the release of new production capacity, the daily output of soda ash has reached a new high, and the over - supply expectation is intensifying. The inventory in the upstream and mid - stream is high, which restricts the price. However, exports in November were close to 190,000 tons, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [63] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts and the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in different regions remained stable [64] Glass - **Fundamentals**: Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The high inventory in the mid - stream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [87] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts and the month - spreads changed significantly. For example, the glass 01 contract dropped to 0 yuan/ton from 941 yuan/ton on the previous day [88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel: The demand for rebar weakens seasonally as construction in the north halts, and the destocking slope of hot-rolled coils slows down and is expected to turn into inventory accumulation. The supply fundamentals weaken as the iron water output rebounds and the steel mill profits improve, leading to a month-on-month increase in both outputs. The support from furnace materials and its low valuation limit the downside space. The iron ore replenishment expectation supports the ore price, but the accumulation of port inventories restricts the increase. Coking coal prices rise due to production cut news, but the inventory base is relatively large, and both are expected to remain volatile in the short term [3]. - Iron Ore: The price rises due to capital spill - over, but the fundamentals are weak. The supply side has neutral shipments, high floating inventories at sea, and continuous arrival pressure, with abundant spot goods. On the demand side, although the iron water output has bottomed out and rebounded, the steel market has entered the off - season, and the rebar inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, making it difficult to support a continuous and substantial increase in iron water production. The port inventory has exceeded 170 million tons and continues to accumulate, resulting in a deviation between price and fundamentals [20]. - Coal and Coke: The domestic mines continue to resume production, and the number of Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicles at the import end has declined but remains at a high level year - on - year. The price difference between Australian coal at home and abroad is inverted, leading to a possible decline in subsequent arrivals. The iron water output of steel mills has stabilized and rebounded, increasing procurement demand. The start of winter storage and the rebound of the futures market have driven the release of speculative demand, and many coking enterprises have initiated price increases. There is a structural surplus in supply and demand, but the degree is limited, and macro - sentiment is the core driver [30]. - Ferroalloys: Ferrosilicon has started to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of ferromanganese has decreased month - on - month, but the inventory base is still relatively large. The supply pressure of ferroalloys is high, but the cost side provides support. In the short term, after the correction, ferroalloys are expected to show a bottom - oscillating trend [46]. - Soda Ash: The previous increase in commodity sentiment has driven up low - valued varieties, and the futures market has risen, with mid - stream replenishment of soda ash. Fundamentally, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash has reached a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The medium - to - long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. The photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable, with the heavy - soda balance remaining in surplus. In November, the soda ash export was close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [60]. - Glass: Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. In addition, the policy's impact on supply cannot be ruled out. In reality, regardless of the change in supply expectations, the high inventory of the glass mid - stream needs to be digested, and the spot market is under pressure as the terminal has entered the off - season [82]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3134 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also had slight fluctuations. The basis and spreads between different contracts also changed [4][8][10]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts decreased compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 830 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan from the previous day. The basis also changed, with the 01 basis at - 35 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamentals**: As of January 9, 2026, the average daily iron water output was 2295,000 tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. The 45 - port inventory was 162.7526 million tons, up 3.0437 million tons week - on - week [25]. Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 167 yuan, up 57 yuan from the previous day. The coking profit on the futures market was - 42 yuan, up 36.912 yuan from the previous day [31][33]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and varieties had different changes. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1500 yuan/ton, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 1069 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan week - on - week [35]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On January 13, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 12 yuan, up 16 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was - 138 yuan, up 5536 yuan from the previous day [47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 184 yuan, up 64 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 80 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous day [48]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1212 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 2.18%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 61 yuan, up 2 yuan from the previous day [61]. - **Fundamentals**: New production capacity is gradually releasing output, and the daily production of soda ash has reached a new high. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, and the export volume in November was close to 190,000 tons [60]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the glass 05 contract closed at 1096 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 4.11%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 112 yuan, down 14 yuan from the previous day [83]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed certain fluctuations from January 2 to January 8, 2026 [84].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable bottom for the steel industry with a profit rate of 37.7% for steel companies, suggesting a neutral to positive outlook for the sector [10][11]. Core Insights - The iron ore prices have increased due to expectations of spring replenishment by port traders, while the reduction of 19 million tons of capacity in Yulin has led to expectations of a reversal in coking coal prices [10][11]. - The domestic hot-rolled coil prices are showing a weak trend, with an average price of 3,306 RMB/ton, up by 16 RMB/ton from December 31 [11]. - The steel industry is experiencing a price increase across the black industrial chain due to raw material inflation, although the steel segment is currently facing a loss of 38.6 RMB per ton [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The report highlights a 3.3% increase in the CITIC Steel Index, which underperformed the market by 0.5% [10]. - The steel industry is at a fundamental bottom, with expectations of price stability in the near term [10]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals Overview Steel - The hot-rolled coil prices are fluctuating, with a slight increase in social inventory to 3.9524 million tons, up by 50,400 tons week-on-week [11]. - The demand for steel is supported by macroeconomic expectations, but actual high-level transactions remain low, leading to a forecast of narrow price adjustments in the coming week [11]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have slightly increased from a recent bottom, with some coal types experiencing price adjustments due to improved auction results [12]. - The supply side remains loose as previously reduced coal mines have resumed production, while demand is limited due to the traditional off-season for steel [12]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have risen, with the average price for 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port reaching 826 RMB/ton, an increase of 24 RMB/ton (+3%) from the previous week [13]. - The report anticipates that the replenishment by steel mills will remain restrained due to weak demand in real estate and infrastructure investments [13].