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方正证券:储能海内外共振带来需求高景气 光伏反内卷推进利好供给变革
智通财经网· 2025-12-25 02:04
Group 1: Energy Storage - Domestic energy storage demand is continuously being released, with record-high bidding scale; from January to September 2025, the new energy storage installation capacity reached 81.96 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 61.59% [2] - The cumulative bidding scale for energy storage systems and EPC from January to October this year reached 364.19 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 161%, with independent storage accounting for 58% [2] - In the overseas market, the demand for energy storage is driven by the AIDC in the US, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 85% from 2025 to 2030; Europe is expected to see new energy storage installations reach 118 GWh by 2029, with large storage accounting for 69% [2] Group 2: Photovoltaics - The "anti-involution" policy has improved supply and demand in the photovoltaic industry, leading to a rebound in prices; from the price low in early July to December 11, the cumulative price increases for polysilicon, N-type silicon wafers, TOPCon battery cells, and TOPCon modules were 49%, 40%, 22%, and 2% respectively [3] - BC batteries are expected to achieve mass production by 2026, with significant investments from leading companies; by the end of 2025, domestic BC battery component capacity is expected to exceed 70 GW, with a continuous increase in market share [3] - Perovskite solar cell technology is making breakthroughs, with Longi Green Energy achieving a world record efficiency of 34.85% for silicon-perovskite tandem cells; the industry is transitioning from "technology validation" to "initial mass production" [3] Group 3: Space Photovoltaics - The deployment of space data centers is accelerating, presenting a promising future for space photovoltaics; current mainstream technology is gallium arsenide batteries, but high costs and rigid substrates limit large-scale application [4] - Future mainstream solutions may include P-type HJT batteries and perovskite batteries [4]
中恒电气(002364):首次覆盖报告:受益HVDC渗透率提升,出海带动业绩高增
Shanghai Aijian Securities· 2025-12-23 07:47
证券研究报告 公司研究 / 公司深度 2025 年 12 月 23 日 受益 HVDC 渗透率提升,出海带动业绩 高增 电力设备 | 报告原因: | | --- | | 买入(首次评级) | | 市场数据: | 2025 | 年 | 月 | 22 | 日 | | | 12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | | | | | | 24.65 | | | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | | | | | | 32.85/8.15 | | | | 市净率 | | | | | | 5.7 | | | | 股息率(分红/股价) | | | | | | 0.40 | | | | 流通 A 股市值(百万元) | | | | | | 13,757 | | | | 上证指数/深证成指 | | | | | | | 3,917/13,333 | | | 注:"股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | | | | | | | | 基础数据: | | 2025 | 年 | 09 | 月 30 | 日 | | --- | --- | ...
拆解全球首个AIDC全时长储能解决方案,能破解数据中心“缺电荒”吗?
鑫椤储能· 2025-12-23 06:10
以下文章来源于新能源产业家 ,作者范舒雨 新能源产业家 . 中国新能源产业智库,聚焦赛道上的关键产品,关键人物。集深度报道、展览会议、产业研究为一体的综合产业服务平台。 关注公众号,点击公众号主页右上角" ··· ",设置星标 "⭐" ,关注 鑫椤储能 资讯~ 封面图 | 图虫创意 上周三,英伟达在硅谷总部开了一场闭门会。 这次会议的主题只有一 个 : AI 数据中心电力短缺问题 。 到2027年,单单是英伟达自家的GPU集群就要消耗150-200GW的电力,相当于整个法国电力消 耗量的1.5-2倍。 英伟达总部所在的加利福尼亚州,就有两个大型数据中心项目都因当地公用事业公司无法提供电力而闲置。电力问题不解决,六年过去,项目还是一个空 壳。 这个月初,黄仁勋在一档采访节目中,把人工智能比作 "五层蛋糕" , 最底层的蛋糕是能源,是基石 。他说:"倘若没有能源支撑,我们拿什么来建造芯片 工厂、计算机系统工厂以及人工智能数据中心?" 黄仁勋将能源比作AI的底层"蛋糕" 电力,已经成为AI发展的终极瓶颈 。这无疑为储能开启了一个巨大的机会窗口期。 以往,储能在 AIDC的供电中只承担 "备电"工具的角色,但如今它的 ...
招商证券:AIDC加速投建 重点关注设备产业链投资方向
智通财经网· 2025-12-23 06:01
需求侧:算力驱动数据中心建设热潮,带动产业链公司订单显著增长 燃气轮机环节:量价齐增背景下,关注上游部件(应流股份(603308.SH)等)、HRSG部件企业,国产化替 代标的(上海电气(601727.SH)等)及终端服务企业(杰瑞股份(002535.SZ))。 柴发环节:受益于交付速度优势,国内企业承接海外产能外溢订单,重点关注国产化替代(潍柴重机 (000880.SZ)等)与出海方向(科泰电源(300153.SZ)等)。 招商证券主要观点如下: 全球数据中心扩产主力为北美AI巨头与中国互联网大厂,北美头部企业资本开支从2023Q2的241亿美元 增至2025Q3的760亿美元,国内大厂2024Q4资本开支达772亿元阶段性高峰。北美、中国为核心增量区 域,海外龙头仍有大量待建项目,国内受算力卡进口受限影响暂缓后,有望迎来需求反弹。数据中心电 力需求激增,预计2028年美国数据中心电力需求占比将达6.7%-12%。 供给端:能源与设备双重瓶颈 北美面临电网老化、发电设备老旧与能源结构转型矛盾,燃气轮机机龄居全球首位,电力供需缺口推高 电价;中国核心约束为算力卡与海外设备进口收缩,国产化替代成关键。2026年 ...
谷歌再抛300亿大手笔收购,直指北美数据中心电力痛点
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-12-22 23:28
Group 1 - Alphabet, Google's parent company, announced the acquisition of data center energy supplier Intersect for $4.75 billion (approximately 33 billion RMB) to enhance power supply for data centers [1] - Intersect specializes in power solutions for data centers, focusing on power supply optimization, energy efficiency, and emergency power support, which aligns with the extreme demand for power stability in AI data centers [1] - The acquisition aims to address the increasing power demand in the U.S. due to aging power grids and the surge in AI, new factories, and overall electrification of the economy [1] Group 2 - The North American power shortage is exacerbated by the rapid growth of AI computing power, with NVIDIA's CEO warning that power shortages are a critical bottleneck for AI development in the U.S. [1] - The U.S. public utility's summer net generation capacity for 2024 is projected at 1,230.4 GW, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.42% over the past decade, and 8.1 GW of coal-fired power plants are set to retire in 2025, worsening the power gap [1] - New technologies in power supply systems are seen as key opportunities for domestic companies to expand internationally, with solid-state transformers (SST) expected to become the ultimate solution for AIDC power systems [2] Group 3 - Companies with supply capabilities for high-reliability power generation equipment, energy storage devices, and grid-related equipment are expected to benefit significantly from the growing power gap in North America [2] - The trend towards direct current and high voltage in data center distribution is confirmed, with solid-state circuit breakers accelerating in application due to their advantages in arc-free interruption [2] - Companies in the upstream and downstream supply chain, including power generation, storage, and distribution, will directly benefit, leading to increased demand for supporting materials like electrolytes and membranes [2] Group 4 - Sungrow Power Supply, a leading company in the domestic solar-storage sector, has a well-established global layout for its storage business and can meet the dynamic power supply needs of AIDC [3] - Jerry Holdings has recently secured over $100 million in generator orders from North American AI clients [4]
欧陆通(300870):首次覆盖报告:高功率服务器电源加速出海
Shanghai Aijian Securities· 2025-12-22 08:31
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its stock performance [5]. Core Insights - The company is well-positioned in the power supply sector, particularly benefiting from the demand for high-power server power supplies driven by the AIDC wave. The expected growth in net profit for 2025-2027 is projected at 326 million, 464 million, and 804 million CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 69.4, 48.8, and 28.1 [5]. - The company has established itself as a leading supplier of high-power server power supplies in China, with products that meet international high-end standards. It is one of the few suppliers capable of large-scale sales of high-power server power supplies, which positions it to capitalize on opportunities in AI and domestic substitution [5][32]. - The report highlights the company's strategic partnerships with major domestic server manufacturers and its ongoing collaboration with leading internet companies, which enhances its market presence [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2,870 million CNY in 2023, 3,798 million CNY in 2024, 4,817 million CNY in 2025, 6,082 million CNY in 2026, and 7,448 million CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.2%, 32.3%, 26.8%, 26.3%, and 22.5% respectively [4]. - The net profit forecast shows significant growth, with expected figures of 196 million CNY in 2023, 268 million CNY in 2024, 326 million CNY in 2025, 464 million CNY in 2026, and 804 million CNY in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 117.1%, 36.9%, 21.7%, 42.4%, and 73.2% respectively [4][36]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve, with estimates of 19.7% in 2023, 21.4% in 2024, 21.3% in 2025, 24.0% in 2026, and 26.6% in 2027 [36]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company ranks as the 12th largest power supply manufacturer globally in 2024, with sales of approximately 521 million USD, indicating a strong competitive position in the market [17]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to meet the growing demand for high-power server power supplies, particularly in the context of the expanding global server market, which is expected to reach a scale of 282.35 billion CNY in China by 2025 [5][30]. - The company is strategically positioned to leverage its global production capabilities in Vietnam and Mexico to meet North American customer demands, enhancing its competitive edge [5].
寻找情绪上行的线索 - 创新药和电力设备出海
2025-12-22 01:45
在 2025 年 11 月至 12 月期间,市场经历了一定程度的热门方向调整,不仅在 中国,海外市场如美股也出现了明显的滞涨或调整。创新药板块整体调整幅度 较大,而海外电力设备龙头公司如 Bloom Energy 等也有显著下跌。在这种环 境下,我们观察到行业之间的分化情况达到了一个高水平,例如 9 月份时行业 分化程度与 2020 年 8 月、2021 年 2 月和 2019 年 9 月相当。然而,随着科 技板块的调整和传统价值板块如保险等上行,行业间分化情况有所收敛。 如何理解当前市场情绪的变化及其对投资策略的影响? 当前市场情绪从 9 月份开始逐渐回落,并在 11 月底至 12 月初进入低谷。我们 通过多种指标刻画市场状况,例如过去三个月不同行业涨跌标准差、60 个交易 美国生物医药指数 XBI 自 4 月以来持续上涨,主要催化剂是 MNC 的大 量收购行为。预计该趋势将在 2026 年及以后持续,中美两地生物医药 股市有望受益于 MNC 焦虑带来的价值重估。 AIDC 对美国天然气需求产生显著影响,燃气轮机市场需求增长,柴油 发电设备市场供不应求。中国企业在高端柴油发电领域与海外企业存在 差距,但技术 ...
四大证券报精华摘要:12月22日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-12-22 01:05
新华财经北京12月22日电四大证券报内容精华摘要如下: 中国证券报 ·"游戏+"跨界融合打开产业新空间 曾经主要被视为娱乐产品的游戏,正在打开新的可能性。随着数字技术的演进,游戏产业积累的技术能 力、设计思维与用户基础,开始系统性地溢出原有边界,与医疗、教育、文旅、制造等传统领域深度融 合。业内人士表示,游戏正从提供娱乐消遣的载体,演进为驱动实体产业数字化发展、服务社会多元需 求的柔性工具。这种转变,重塑着人们对游戏的认知,也开辟出新的产业增长点。 ·锚定高质量发展万亿元级"游戏经济"生态浮现 在政策环境持续优化、版号供给充足的背景下,中国游戏产业正从高速增长阶段,坚定迈向以"高质量 发展"为核心的新阶段。《2025年中国游戏产业报告》显示,2025年,国内游戏市场实际销售收入达 3507.89亿元,同比增速达7.68%,产业基本盘稳固。更为深刻的变化在于,行业的价值认知与发展脉络 正在重构——"游戏经济"展现出市场规模超1.2万亿元的广阔生态;以人工智能为代表的技术革新与以 传统文化为内核的内容深耕,正构筑起产业新的竞争壁垒;而出海与履责并重,标志着行业寻求可持续 发展的成熟姿态。多位从业者表示:"游戏产业 ...
电力设备行业跟踪周报:储能全球开花需求旺盛、AIDC和人形加速-20251221
Soochow Securities· 2025-12-21 13:16
证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 储能全球开花需求旺盛、AIDC 和人形加速 2025 年 12 月 21 日 增持(维持) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书:S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阮巧燕 执业证书:S0600517120002 021-60199793 ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -15% -8% -1% 6% 13% 20% 27% 34% 41% 48% 2024/12/23 2025/4/22 2025/8/20 2025/12/18 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究 《储能全球开花需求旺盛,AIDC 和人 形加速》 2025-12-14 《储能锂电淡季不淡、AIDC 和人形加 2025-12-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 50 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 速》 ◼ 电气设备 9787 下跌 3.12%,表现弱于大盘。(本周,12 月 15 日-12 月 19 日),发电设备跌 3.77%,风电 跌 3.22 ...
双登股份(06960.HK):中国通信及数据中心储能龙头 受益全球AIDC高景气成长空间广阔
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-20 18:41
机构:中金公司 研究员:王颖东/于寒/杜懿臻/曲昊源 首次覆盖 投资亮点 首次覆盖双登股份(06960)给予跑赢行业评级,目标价22.90港元,基于P/E 估值法,对应估值倍数 16.0X P/E(2026 年),公司是国内通信及数据中心储能龙头。理由如下: 储能市场空间广阔,全球算力资本开始提升带来储能发展新机遇。伴随储能电池成本下降以及政策加 码、全球储能快速发展。细分领域看,数据中心储能,包括备用电源、调节类储能等,受益全球算力资 本开支加码,我们认为需求有望快速释放;并且从技术路线上,大型算力中心对备用电源要求高放电倍 率、高安全性、且占地面积小,驱动锂代铅及三元转铁锂。 电力储能进入景气度上行周期,行业供需迎拐点。受益国内独立储能经济性改善,以及海外能源结构转 型及政策补贴驱动下,我们认为电力储能需求进入上行周期。行业供需关系3Q25 迎来拐点,头部储能 电芯厂产能供不应求,中尾部厂商受益于订单外溢、稼动率亦有改善。受益于供需关系改善,储能电芯 价格迎来修复。 公司储能业务聚焦数据中心场景,卡位核心全球头部客户,海外建厂打开成长空间。公司储能业务覆盖 数据中心、电力储能场景,数据中心卡位国内头部CS ...