Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the October social financing data, highlighting a lower-than-expected increase in social financing and a decline in credit to the real economy, primarily driven by reduced household loans and a challenging real estate market [1][6][7]. Summary by Sections Social Financing Overview - In October, social financing increased by 815 billion yuan, below the market average expectation of 1.2 trillion yuan, and a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan. The stock growth rate of social financing was 8.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][6]. Credit to Real Economy - Credit to the real economy decreased by 201 billion yuan, with a year-on-year reduction of 3.166 trillion yuan. This decline was mainly due to a drop in household short-term loans by 2.866 trillion yuan and long-term loans by 700 billion yuan, totaling a year-on-year decrease of 5.156 trillion yuan [1][7]. Corporate Loans - Corporate loans showed overall improvement, with short-term loans remaining flat year-on-year and bill financing increasing by 331.2 billion yuan. However, long-term loans increased by only 30 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 140 billion yuan [2][8]. Government and Corporate Bond Financing - Government bond financing amounted to 489.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 560.2 billion yuan. For the remaining months of the year, government bond financing is projected to be around 2.41 trillion yuan, down approximately 655.5 billion yuan year-on-year [9][10]. M1 and M2 Growth - M1 grew by 6.2%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, while M2 increased by 8.2%, also down 0.2 percentage points. The slower growth in M1 and M2 is attributed to weak credit and reduced government bond supply [4][12]. Future Outlook - The market has already priced in discussions regarding the fourth quarter's social financing and M1 trends. The data from October did not present significant surprises, with the year-to-date increase in social financing being 14.1%, the highest in five years [5][13]. The first quarter of 2026 is seen as critical, with expectations for policy tools and project financing to impact growth positively [5][13].

Core Insights - The central bank's October financial data indicates that M2 and social financing growth rates remain high, supporting economic recovery [1][4] - Loan growth is reasonable, with an optimized credit structure and low loan interest rates [1][4] Monetary Policy - Current monetary policy stance is supportive, creating a conducive environment for reasonable price recovery [1][10] - Future implementation of moderately loose monetary policy is necessary to maintain strong support for the real economy [1][10] Financial Data Highlights - As of October 2025, M2 balance reached 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [4][6] - Social financing stock was 437.72 trillion yuan, growing 8.5% year-on-year [4][5] - From January to October, the increment in social financing was 30.9 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's figure by 3.83 trillion yuan [4][5] - By the end of October, the balance of RMB loans was 270.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [4][8] Credit Structure - The structure of loans continues to improve, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 11.6% and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increasing by 7.9% [8][9] - The growth of loans related to new economic drivers indicates a shift towards high-quality development [8][9] Government Bonds and Financing - Rapid issuance of government bonds and high demand for corporate bonds have significantly supported the growth of social financing [5] - The issuance of special long-term government bonds increased from 1 trillion yuan last year to 1.3 trillion yuan this year, reflecting fiscal support for economic growth [5] Price Trends - Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in October, indicating a 0.2% year-on-year increase, while core CPI rose by 1.2% [10] - Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1%, with the rate of decline narrowing for three consecutive months [10]

Monetary Supply - M2 money supply increased by 82% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 81% [1] - M1 money supply increased by 62% year-on-year, falling short of expectations of 70% [1] - M0 money supply increased by 106% year-on-year [1] Social Financing - The increment of social financing scale in the first 10 months was 309 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 383 trillion yuan [1] - New social financing in October was 081 trillion yuan [1] RMB Loans - RMB loans increased by 1452 trillion yuan in the first 10 months, with a year-on-year decrease of 116 trillion yuan [1] - RMB loans decreased by 20 billion yuan in October [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, China's CPI increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, with the core CPI showing continuous growth. The PPI decline narrowed, indicating some improvement in the domestic economic situation. The implementation of policies to expand domestic demand continued to show results [3][41]. - The US government "shutdown" has a negative impact on the economy, and although the September inflation data slowed down more than expected, it is difficult to change the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm [45][46]. - In November 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable operation trend, supported by multiple factors, and is expected to maintain a stable tone in the future [54]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - **GDP**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. The actual GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the second quarter [17]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In September 2025, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month. The high - tech manufacturing industry accelerated its growth, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.6% from January to September [18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in the first nine months turned negative, at - 0.7%. In September, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. Real estate investment continued to cool down, while the decline in narrow - sense infrastructure investment narrowed [18]. - **Social Retail Consumption**: In September 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.0% year - on - year. The growth rate of service retail sales from January to September was 5.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [18]. - **Unemployment Rate**: In September 2025, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [18]. - **Import and Export Data**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase. In September, exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations [7]. 3.2 Financial Situation - **Social Financing Data**: In September 2025, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing at the end of September was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan [35]. - **Credit Data**: In September 2025, credit increased by 129 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30 billion yuan. The recovery rhythm of credit demand was uneven, and the structure continued to improve [36]. - **Money Supply**: In September 2025, the M2 - M1 scissors gap reached a new low for the year, at 1.2 percentage points, reflecting positive signals such as increased business activity and recovery of personal investment and consumption demand [35]. 3.3 Price - Related - **CPI**: In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year and month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for the sixth consecutive month. Food and energy prices were still at a low level, but the decline rates narrowed [41]. - **PPI**: In October 2025, the PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, the first increase this year, and decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline rate narrowing for the third consecutive month [41]. 3.4 Overseas Macro - **US Economy**: In September 2025, the US CPI data slowed down more than expected, mainly affected by the decline in rent prices. The US federal government "shutdown" has a negative impact on the economy, and the Fed may still cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October [45][46]. - **Eurozone Economy**: In October 2025, the Eurozone HICP decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the core HICP remained unchanged [14]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **RMB Exchange Rate**: In November 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable operation trend, supported by factors such as the recovery of the domestic economic fundamentals, improvement of the international balance of payments, and policy guidance. It is expected to maintain a stable tone in the future [54]. - **Interest Rates**: The report also presented data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and government bond yields [55][56].

横向对比全球其他主要经济体，中国经济已经呈现出领先于全球经济复苏的特征。以美国为例，截至今 年8月，美国新增非农3个月均值已经回落至2.9万人。历史经验表明，当这个指标回落至10万人以下， 明明（中信证券首席经济学家） 11月6日，沪指收盘涨近1%重返4000点，在近期全球主要股市调整过程中，A股也走出独立上涨行情， 展现出较强韧性。今年以来，中国股市持续走强，既体现了中国经济企稳回升，也代表了以AI、机器 人为代表的新质生产力突破性发展。展望未来，随着"十五五"规划逐步推进，中国资本市场将迎来更大 的发展机会。 从经济周期的绝对水平看，我国宏观环境稳中向好的迹象越发明晰，这突出表现为需求端对经济的拖累 正在弱化。一方面，地产是过去几年中国经济的最大变化，而由于过去几年地产投资的较快速收缩，今 年地产投资规模的跌幅仅为2023年的一半左右。这也导致了地产投资在固定资产中的占比已经从2019年 的25%左右下行至2025年前三季度的14%左右，地产对经济的拖累已经明显减弱；另一方面，消费正在 企稳，且对外部的刺激更加敏感。综合社零总量和结构的变化，可以看出今年消费出现了两大积极变 化。第一大变化是社零的弹性正在 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the current economic situation, particularly focusing on CPI and PPI data, indicating a lack of inflation and a need for continued monetary and fiscal policy support [5][6][10] - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, suggesting weak consumer demand and manufacturing prices [1][3] - The article highlights the importance of M1 and M2 monetary supply data, with M2 growing by 8.4% year-on-year and M1 by 7.2%, indicating a narrowing gap between the two, which reflects a shift in liquidity dynamics [6][8][9] Group 2 - The increase in M1 is attributed to a decline in government bond prices, leading individuals to withdraw funds from fixed-term investments and place them into demand deposits [9][10] - In September, household deposits rose by 2.96 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institution deposits fell by 1.06 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of funds returning to banks rather than remaining in investment accounts [10][11] - The article suggests that the current market volatility and lack of clear upward trends in the stock market have led to a decrease in the "money-moving" phenomenon, with investors opting to keep funds in banks [12][13] Group 3 - The article anticipates that as the stock market stabilizes and begins to rise, there will be a renewed influx of deposits into the market, driven by improved investor sentiment [14][15] - It discusses the government's intention to stimulate the capital market to help escape the current economic stagnation and achieve asset price recovery [16][18] - The upcoming key events, including trade negotiations and monetary policy decisions, are expected to influence market movements, necessitating strategic asset allocation in anticipation of these developments [20][21]

Core Viewpoints - The static forecast indicates that the old-caliber M1 is expected to decline from 6.2% in September to around 3.4% by the end of the year, while M2 is projected to decrease from 8.4% in September to approximately 8.0% by year-end, both remaining higher than the end of 2024 [2] - The analysis framework for M1 and M2 growth involves understanding the components of M1 as part of M2, with M1 being derived from M2 minus other currencies [7][17] Group 1: M2 Growth Factors - M2 growth is influenced by five main factors: corporate leverage, household leverage, foreign exchange derivation, government leverage, and other factors [8][20] - The forecast for M2 growth indicates a decline of 900 billion, with M2 expected to decrease to around 8.0% by year-end due to factors such as reduced government leverage and a decline in corporate loans [8][22][28] Group 2: M1 Growth Analysis - The old-caliber M1 is expected to decline by 1.6 trillion year-on-year, with a forecasted drop to 3.4% by year-end, influenced by factors such as a decrease in household deposits and a stable level of non-bank deposits [9][10][52] - The analysis of other currencies shows that household deposits are expected to decrease by 620 billion, while non-bank deposits are projected to increase by 1.9 trillion [46][47] Group 3: Impacts on Capital Markets - Changes in M1 are seen as leading indicators for price improvements, with M1 growth typically preceding changes in PPI and industrial product inventory by three to four quarters [54] - Non-bank deposits are closely linked to trading volumes in the financial market, with higher non-bank deposits correlating with increased trading activity [55] - The relationship between corporate and household deposits can predict corporate profits and ten-year treasury yields approximately one year in advance [57] Group 4: Potential Scenarios for M1 Changes - Several scenarios for potential M1 changes in Q4 are proposed, including increased corporate loans and infrastructure investment, which could lead to upward pressure on M1 and M2 [63] - Another scenario suggests that a decrease in M2 and household deposits, alongside an increase in corporate deposits, could indicate improved economic cycles and profitability [64]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical analysis, and trading strategies of L plastic and PP polypropylene from September 19 to October 29, 2025. It provides investment suggestions based on various factors such as price trends, supply and demand, and macro - economic indicators. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Prices showed partial fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price increases or decreases. Futures prices also fluctuated, affecting market sentiment and trading volume. For example, on October 29, L2601 closed at 6984 points, down 1 point or - 0.01% [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Market prices were mostly in a state of weak adjustment. Futures prices affected the spot market, and downstream demand was generally cautious. For instance, on October 29, PP2601 closed at 6664 points, up 7 points or + 0.11% [1]. Important Information - **Industry Policies**: The seven - department issued the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value and promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [8][53]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: In the first three quarters, China's industrial production grew rapidly, and enterprise efficiency improved. Some industries and products achieved growth, and the export of industrial products accelerated [4]. - **International Events**: The US government shutdown led to a lack of official data, increasing the difficulty of decision - making for central banks in other countries [30]. Logical Analysis - **Supply - related Factors**: Factors such as production capacity utilization, net imports, and registered warehouse receipts affected the market. For example, as of August, the labor employment rate and resignation rate in the plastic products industry in Taiwan Province both increased, with the difference showing a narrowing increase, which was negative for polyolefin single - side trading [5]. - **Demand - related Factors**: Downstream demand, including the demand in the automotive, construction, and other industries, influenced the market. For example, the growth of the global plastic additive consumption was related to the output growth of plastic end - consumption fields [47]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: Macroeconomic indicators such as the EuroCoin index, PMI, and real estate data had an impact on the polyolefin market. For example, in September, the EuroCoin index strengthened for six consecutive months, which was positive for polyolefin single - side trading [5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies included holding long or short positions, or taking a wait - and - see approach. For example, on October 29, it was recommended to reduce long positions in L and PP [1]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Most of the time, a wait - and - see approach was recommended. For example, on October 29, it was suggested to wait and see for arbitrage trading [2]. - **Options Trading**: Some contracts were recommended for selling or holding, with stop - loss settings. For example, on October 29, it was recommended to sell and hold the L2601 put 6800 contract and set a stop - loss at the recent high of 34.5 points [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the current economic situation, particularly focusing on CPI and PPI data, indicating a lack of inflation and a need for continued monetary and fiscal policy support [5][6][10] - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, suggesting weak consumer demand and manufacturing prices [3][5] - The article highlights the importance of M1 and M2 monetary supply data, with M2 at 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year, and M1 at 113.15 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, indicating a narrowing M2-M1 gap [6][10] Group 2 - The narrowing of the M2-M1 gap suggests that M1 is growing faster, attributed to a decline in government bond prices, prompting individuals to withdraw funds from fixed-term investments back into demand deposits [9][10] - In September, household deposits increased by 2.96 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institution deposits decreased by 1.06 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of funds returning to banks rather than remaining in investment accounts [10][11] - The article notes that the capital market's performance in September was lackluster, leading to a decrease in the "money-moving" phenomenon, as investors were not experiencing significant gains [11][13] Group 3 - The article discusses the potential for continued government intervention to stimulate the capital market and address the current economic stagnation, suggesting that the underlying logic for a bull market remains intact [15][19] - Upcoming key events, including trade negotiations and Federal Reserve meetings, are expected to influence market performance, with a cautious approach recommended until these events conclude [20][21] - The article concludes with a call for strategic asset allocation in anticipation of market movements following these critical events [22][23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the current economic situation, particularly focusing on CPI and PPI data, indicating a lack of inflation and a need for continued monetary and fiscal policy support [5][6][10] - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, suggesting weak consumer demand and manufacturing prices [1][3] - The article highlights the importance of M1 and M2 monetary supply data, with M2 at 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year, and M1 at 113.15 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, indicating a narrowing M2-M1 gap [6][8][9] Group 2 - The narrowing of the M2-M1 gap suggests that M1 is growing faster, attributed to a decline in government bond prices, prompting individuals to withdraw funds from fixed-term investments back into demand deposits [9][10] - In September, household deposits increased by 2.96 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institution deposits decreased by 1.06 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of funds returning to banks rather than remaining in investment accounts [10][11] - The article notes that the capital market's performance in September was lackluster, leading to a decrease in the "deposit migration" phenomenon, as investors were not seeing significant returns [12][13] Group 3 - The article anticipates continued government efforts to stimulate the capital market and address the economic situation, suggesting that the underlying logic for a bull market remains intact [15][19] - Upcoming key events, including trade negotiations and Federal Reserve meetings, are expected to influence market performance, with a cautious approach recommended until these events unfold [20][21] - The article encourages proactive asset allocation in anticipation of market movements following these critical events [22][23]