Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil as geopolitical premiums have dissipated, OPEC's production increase is minimal, and the current oil price is relatively undervalued with good fundamentals. However, it's not advisable to chase the price at present, and if geopolitical premiums reappear, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. - For methanol, the fundamentals are mixed with high inventory suppressing the price. It's recommended to wait and see as the price is greatly affected by overall commodity sentiment [6]. - Regarding urea, although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of driving factors in reality. It's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [9]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it's recommended to wait and see [14]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [17]. - For styrene, the long - term BZN is expected to recover, and it's recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [20]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [23]. - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and there is a lack of driving factors with PXN under pressure. It's recommended to wait and see [30]. - For PTA, the supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is affected by the terminal. It's recommended to wait and see [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to short on rallies with caution [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 9.30 yuan/barrel, a 1.87% decline, at 487.00 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined, with high - sulfur fuel oil down 11.00 yuan/ton (0.39%) to 2796.00 yuan/ton and low - sulfur fuel oil down 36.00 yuan/ton (1.05%) to 3392.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that overall refined oil inventories decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 45.39 million barrels, a 4.10% decline [1][2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil, but it's not advisable to chase the price at present. If geopolitical premiums reappear, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang rose 6 yuan/ton, while that in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped 18 yuan/ton to 2346 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 108. The 1 - 5 spread rose 16 to - 20 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side start - up rate declined, and the demand - side improved marginally. The inventory in ports continued to rise, but the inventory pressure in the inland area was relatively small. It's recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals are mixed [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while that in Henan fell 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped 9 yuan/ton to 1661 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31. The 1 - 5 spread fell 6 to - 61 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure increased, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased again. Although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of driving factors. It's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices declined with a large drop after breaking through technical support. The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is not significant, reducing supply - side bullish factors. The long - short views on natural rubber are divided. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week but down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, down 2.2 million tons (1.8%) from the previous period [11][12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it's recommended to wait and see [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 27 yuan to 4950 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4780 (+10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 170 (-27) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, down 3% from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 49.2%, up 1.7% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 30.6 million tons (-0.4), and social inventory was 95.4 million tons (+1.9) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [17]. Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 5903 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price was 7100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The active contract closing price was 6992 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The basis was 108 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.4%, down 1.60%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.75 million tons to 15.90 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 45.44%, up 0.46% [18][19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term BZN is expected to recover, and it's recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 7169 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7190 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The basis was 21 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.28%, up 0.71%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 million tons to 49.03 million tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.30 million tons to 6.06 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.92%, up 0.75% [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6914 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 39 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate remained unchanged at 75.43%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.45 million tons to 55.06 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.43 million tons to 18.83 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.29 million tons to 6.18 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.45%, up 0.59% [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 90 yuan to 6594 yuan. PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 816 dollars. The basis was 96 yuan (+4), and the 11 - 1 spread was 0 yuan (-18). The PX load in China was 86.3%, down 1.5% from the previous period, and the Asian load was 78.2%, down 0.8% from the previous period. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 0.6 million tons year - on - year [28][29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and there is a lack of driving factors with PXN under pressure. It's recommended to wait and see [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 62 yuan to 4604 yuan. The East China spot price fell 75 yuan to 4555 yuan. The basis was - 82 yuan (-5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (-6). The PTA load was 75.9%, down 0.9% from the previous period [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is affected by the terminal. It's recommended to wait and see [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 11 yuan to 4257 yuan. The East China spot price fell 11 yuan to 4351 yuan. The basis was 92 yuan (+9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (+2). The supply - side operating rate was 73.8%, down 1.1% from the previous period. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.2% from the previous period. The port inventory increased by 0.6 million tons to 46.5 million tons [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to short on rallies with caution [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, believing that the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, to 486.20 yuan/barrel [1] - **Inventory Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.94 million barrels to 424.65 million barrels, a 0.94% increase; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 405.22 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 1.46 million barrels to 220.00 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; diesel inventories increased by 4.72 million barrels to 120.64 million barrels, a 4.07% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.30 million barrels to 21.21 million barrels, a 6.51% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.47 million barrels to 43.27 million barrels, a 1.11% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 112 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has further increased, coal prices have slightly declined, and corporate profits are generally good. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high, and there is still import pressure. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and profits have continued to improve, but traditional demand is still weak. It is expected that the decline space is limited, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spreads [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 1669 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [6] - **Analysis**: As the spot price weakens, corporate profits have further declined, and the production start - up rate has significantly decreased, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is weak, and port inventories are rising. It is expected that the price will move within a range, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly, following the trend of industrial products such as coking coal. Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15000 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1845 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1855 (+ 5) dollars [9][12] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that rubber production in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may be limited, the seasonality of rubber usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view, but a neutral view in the short - term, either waiting and watching or making quick trades [10][12] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 10 yuan to 4857 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 207 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 (+ 6) yuan/ton [14] - **Analysis**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Domestic demand is at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but also beware of short - term upward movements [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, while the futures price rose, and the basis weakened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward correction space [16] - **Analysis**: The cost - side pure benzene production is in a neutral and volatile state, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the production start - up rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory has continued to decline significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price may rebound after the inventory decline inflection point [16][17] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7220 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 6 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [19] - **Analysis**: There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is declining from a high level. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. In the long - term, the price may fluctuate upward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6948 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6955 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 7 yuan/ton, strengthening by 1 yuan/ton [20] - **Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with high supply pressure. The downstream production start - up rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 44 yuan to 6770 yuan, the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 838 dollars, and the basis was 94 yuan (- 22) [22] - **Analysis**: The PX production load is at a high level, and although the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance in the short - term, the PX inventory accumulation is not large due to new PTA device production. The terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices during the peak season [22][23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 20 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4625 yuan, and the basis was - 63 yuan (0) [24] - **Analysis**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has turned into de - stocking, but the processing fee is suppressed. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and the downstream and terminal production start - up rates have improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [24] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 4319 yuan, the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4439 yuan, and the basis was 117 yuan (- 15) [25] - **Analysis**: Overseas and domestic maintenance devices have gradually started, and the production start - up rate has reached a high level. The domestic supply is high. In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less arrival volume, but it will turn into inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year, and there is downward pressure in the medium - term [25]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **tanker shipping industry**, focusing on the current market dynamics and future expectations related to oil and gas transportation. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - Freight rates on the Middle East to China route have significantly increased to **WS70 and above**, indicating optimistic market expectations for future rates [1][3] - There is a general sentiment among shipowners to hold back on leasing due to anticipated further increases in freight rates [3][4] - The **U.S. Gulf Coast** continues to see high levels of LNG and crude oil exports, which is consuming some of the Middle Eastern shipping capacity, exacerbating overall capacity tightness [1][3] - The **shadow fleet** is performing well, with routes such as from Venezuela to China experiencing a shortage of available ships [1][3] OPEC and Production Plans - OPEC is expected to discuss a potential increase in production, with a possibility of releasing **1.6 million barrels per day** to regain market share and suppress U.S. shale oil exports [1][5] - The market anticipates that OPEC's strategy to maintain production at lower oil prices could push prices below **$60**, which would significantly impact U.S. shale oil profitability [6][5] Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. and EU have intensified sanctions against Russian oil, while India is expected to increase its imports of Russian crude by **10%-20%**, leading to increased long-haul shipping demand [1][3][6] - Despite sanctions, India is unlikely to significantly reduce Russian oil imports due to favorable pricing, which is crucial for the profitability of Indian refineries [6][7] Shipping Capacity and Fleet Dynamics - The aging fleet poses a risk, as older vessels (over 20 years) are unlikely to compete in a normalized market post-sanctions, leading to a reduction in shipping capacity and potentially higher freight rates [9][10] - Chinese shipyards are refusing to accept older sanctioned vessels for repairs, further limiting their return to the market [9] Future Market Expectations - The overall tanker market is expected to remain tight, with freight rates projected to maintain a range of **$40,000 to $50,000** per day by the end of the year [13][18] - If the shadow fleet continues to grow, the market could see a strong support level for freight rates [13] - The upcoming OPEC meeting and India's oil import policies are critical factors to monitor in the coming months [14] Stock Market Implications - Current valuations of tanker stocks are at a low point, but any marginal improvements in market conditions could lead to increased attention and investment in these stocks [19] Additional Important Insights - The **second-hand ship market** is currently a seller's market, with limited availability of older vessels, particularly VLCCs [16] - The actual price of sanctioned oil is typically about **$5 lower** than Brent crude prices, with freight rates for sanctioned oil varying significantly based on route and vessel type [17] - The impact of geopolitical tensions and sanctions on shipping operations remains a critical area of focus, with ongoing regulatory scrutiny affecting operational costs [8][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will not have a significant unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the domestic supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, build positions at appropriate times, and adopt a neutral - to - bullish or neutral strategy for short - term trading, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is the shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. It will still face pressure in the future [12]. - For benzene ethylene, in the short term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [15][17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend [19]. - For polypropylene, it is expected that the price will be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and it is expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [22]. - For PTA, under the situation of expected continuous inventory accumulation and weakening demand, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [23]. - For ethylene glycol, although the fundamentals are weak, it is expected to be strong in the short term due to unexpected events [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose by $0.98, or 1.47%, to $67.62; Brent main crude oil futures rose by $0.94, or 1.37%, to $69.65; INE main crude oil futures fell by 0.60 yuan, or 0.12%, to 516.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.23 million barrels to 12.23 million barrels, a 1.92% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.68 million barrels to 9.06 million barrels, a 7.00% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.32 million barrels to 23.39 million barrels, a 5.35% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.78 million barrels to 44.68 million barrels, a 3.82% decrease [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 17, the 09 contract rose by 6 yuan/ton to 2373 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 8 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 17 [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The upstream start - up rate continued to decline, and the profit slightly decreased but remained at a relatively high level. Overseas device start - up returned to the mid - high level, and the market reaction to overseas supply disruptions was over, with market fluctuations narrowing. The port olefin load rebounded this week, but the traditional demand was in the off - season, with the start - up rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid falling and those of chlorides and MTBE rising, showing overall weakness [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 17, the 09 contract rose by 10 yuan/ton to 1743 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 47 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic start - up rate decreased slightly, and the overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level, with cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The start - up rate of compound fertilizers bottomed out and rebounded, entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, and the subsequent start - up rate will continue to rise, supporting the demand for urea. Export containerization continued, and port inventory continued to increase [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have been rising continuously, showing strong momentum. The overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish [7]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 6, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons, or 0.02%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 791,000 tons, a 0.25% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 502,000 tons, a 0.45% decrease. As of July 13, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 507,500 (+23,000) tons [9]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The rubber price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, build positions at appropriate times, and adopt a neutral - to - bullish or neutral strategy for short - term trading, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose by 21 yuan to 4955 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4840 (0) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 (- 21) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 118 (- 3) yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC this week was 77%, a 0.5% decrease; the start - up rate of the calcium carbide method was 79.2%, a 1.6% decrease; the start - up rate of the ethylene method was 71%, a 2.5% increase. The overall downstream start - up rate was 41.1%, a 1.8% decrease. Factory inventory was 382,000 tons (- 5,000), and social inventory was 624,000 tons (+32,000) [12]. 3.6 Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is currently at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space [15]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The start - up rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, and the start - up rate of benzene ethylene continued to rise. The port inventory of benzene ethylene increased significantly, and the overall start - up rate of the three S products in the demand side decreased due to the off - season [15][17]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The global trade policy uncertainty has returned due to the US tariff policy. The spot price of polyethylene fell, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The upstream start - up rate was 78.84%, a 0.01% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 529,300 tons, a 36,200 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 57,700 tons, a 2,900 - ton decrease. The average downstream start - up rate was 38%, a 0.13% increase [19]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The profit of Shandong local refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal supply of propylene returning [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The downstream start - up rate fluctuated seasonally downward. In the off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20]. 3.9 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose by 26 yuan to 6742 yuan, and the PX CFR fell by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was 119 yuan (- 41), and the 9 - 1 spread was 134 yuan (+36) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The load in China was 81.3%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 73.6%, a 0.5% decrease. Some devices had load adjustments. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 117,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of July, a year - on - year increase of 22,000 tons. The inventory at the end of May was 4.346 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 165,000 tons [22]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose by 8 yuan to 4714 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 10 yuan to 4730 yuan. The basis was 24 yuan (+13), and the 9 - 1 spread was 66 yuan (+16) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged from the previous period. The downstream load was 88.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The terminal texturing load decreased by 1% to 61%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 56%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 11 was 2.172 million tons, a 38,000 - ton increase [23]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose by 21 yuan to 4372 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 37 yuan to 4437 yuan. The basis was 62 yuan (- 8), and the 9 - 1 spread was 17 yuan (+15) [24]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side load was 66.2%, a 1.4% decrease. The downstream load was 88.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The import arrival forecast was 45,000 tons, and the port inventory was 553,000 tons, a 27,000 - ton decrease [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has slightly exceeded expectations in increasing production, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. The overall crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - For methanol, in the context of the off - season, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that there will be no significant unilateral price trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2] - Regarding urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [4] - For rubber, the market has different views from bulls and bears. The overall operation is to maintain a long - term bullish view in the medium - term and a neutral view in the short - term [6][8] - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is inventory reduction weakening. The market will still face pressure in the future [10] - For styrene, the short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate with a downward bias [12] - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to remain volatile [14] - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in July [15] - For PX, after the maintenance season ends, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips following the trend of crude oil [19] - For PTA, in July, the supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there will still be a slight reduction in inventory. The processing fee has support, but the demand side is under slight pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips following PX [20] - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. The valuation is neutral year - on - year, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities later [21] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI's main crude oil futures fell $0.35, or 0.52%, to $67.18; Brent's main crude oil futures fell $0.34, or 0.49%, to $68.51; INE's main crude oil futures fell 1.20 yuan, or 0.24%, to 502.3 yuan [1] - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that the arrival inventory decreased by 0.65 million barrels to 208.07 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.99 million barrels to 87.97 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.32%; diesel commercial inventory increased by 2.14 million barrels to 100.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.17%; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 4.14 million barrels to 188.79 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 7, the 09 contract fell 7 yuan/ton to 2392 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of +33 [2] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined from a high level, but enterprise profits are still good. Iranian plants have restarted, and the overseas operating rate has returned to a medium - high level. The demand side shows that port olefins have reduced their load, and traditional demand is in the off - season, with the operating rate declining [2] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 7, the 09 contract rose 13 yuan/ton to 1748 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +42 [4] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The short - term domestic operating rate has declined, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The overall enterprise profit is at a medium - low level, and cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. The demand for compound fertilizers continues to decline, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound with the pre - sale of autumn fertilizers. Export container loading continues, and port inventory has increased significantly [4] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have adjusted downward in a volatile manner [6] - **Bull - Bear Views**: Bulls believe that factors such as weather and policies in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and the price usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may not meet expectations [6] - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.73%, 1.89 percentage points lower than last week and 1.55 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 70.04%, 7.64 percentage points lower than last week and 9.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 million tons, or 0.6% [7][8] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 14 yuan to 4892 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4770 (-30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 122 (-16) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 99 (-2) yuan/ton [10] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Recently, there have been more maintenance activities, but production remains at a high level, and there are expectations of multiple plant commissions in the short term. The downstream operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season. In July, India's anti - dumping measures are expected to be implemented, and exports are expected to weaken [10] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price has risen, the futures price has fallen, and the basis has strengthened [12] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's production increase decision. The cost of pure benzene has increased in supply, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has risen, and the styrene operating rate has continued to rise. The port inventory has increased, and the demand for three S products has declined seasonally [12] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen, and the spot price has remained unchanged. The PE valuation has limited downward space [14] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The OPEC+ meeting's production increase decision slightly exceeded expectations, and crude oil has oscillated downward. Traders' inventory has continued to increase at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate has declined [14] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen, and the spot price has remained unchanged [15] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. The downstream operating rate has declined seasonally. Under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in July [15] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 68 yuan to 6672 yuan, and PX CFR fell 9 dollars to 840 dollars, with a basis of 254 yuan (-5) [17] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The Chinese operating load was 81%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8%; the Asian operating load was 74.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. Some domestic plants have reduced their loads or undergone maintenance, while some overseas plants have restarted or increased their loads. PTA operating load has increased slightly. In June, South Korea's PX exports to China increased year - on - year. Inventory decreased in May [17] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 36 yuan/ton to 4710 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 55 yuan to 4835 yuan, with a basis of 97 yuan (-30) [20] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA operating load was 78.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. Some plants have adjusted their loads. The downstream operating load was 90.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Some downstream plants have carried out maintenance or production cuts. Social inventory decreased slightly in June [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 4277 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4365 yuan, with a basis of 76 (0) [21] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side operating rate was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. Some domestic and overseas plants have undergone maintenance or restarted. The downstream operating load was 90.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Port inventory has decreased, but the inventory reduction is expected to slow down [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. The overall crude oil market is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of both supply and demand weakening. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will hardly have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - Regarding urea, the domestic urea supply - demand situation is acceptable, with support at the lower price level, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected to be easier to rise than fall in the second half of the year. A long - position mindset should be maintained for the medium - term, and long positions should be gradually established in batches. For the short - term, a neutral mindset is recommended, with short - term operations and quick in - and - out trading. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [10] - In the PVC market, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is still inventory reduction and weakening. The market is currently rebounding driven by the rebound of the black building materials sector, but will still be under pressure due to the weak fundamental expectations [12] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN is expected to recover [14] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain volatile. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there are no new capacity commissioning plans in July [17] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July. However, the LL - PP spread has formed a bottom and is expected to gradually widen in the second half of the year [18] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [20][21] - For PTA, in July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight inventory reduction, and the processing fee has support. The demand side is slightly under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22] - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamental situation is weak, but it may be stronger in the short - term due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting on rallies [23] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI's main crude oil futures closed down $0.18, a 0.27% decline, at $67; Brent's main crude oil futures closed down $0.34, a 0.49% decline, at $68.51; INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.80 yuan, a 0.55% decline, at 503.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 0.21 million barrels to 9.15 million barrels, a 2.23% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 0.55 million barrels to 14.35 million barrels, a 4.00% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.57 million barrels to 6.10 million barrels, an 8.48% decrease; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.39 million barrels to 5.23 million barrels, a 6.89% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.76 million barrels to 6.10 million barrels, an 11.03% decrease; the total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.37 million barrels to 40.93 million barrels, a 3.23% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes on July 4**: The 09 contract fell 15 yuan/ton to 2399 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of +46 [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined from a high level. Overseas plant operating rates have returned to medium - high levels. The market has gradually priced in the overseas supply disruptions, and market fluctuations have narrowed. On the demand side, the olefin plants at ports have reduced their loads, and it is the off - season for traditional demand, with the operating rate declining. After the recent decline in methanol prices, the downstream profit has improved, but the overall level is still low, and the methanol spot valuation is still high. It is expected that the upside space is limited in the off - season [4] Urea - **Market Quotes on July 4**: The 09 contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1735 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of +55 [6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The short - term domestic operating rate has declined, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, and cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. On the demand side, the compound fertilizer operating rate has continued to decline, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound with the start of autumn fertilizer pre - sales. Export container shipping is still ongoing, and port inventories have increased significantly. The subsequent demand is concentrated on compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers and exports [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have adjusted downward in a volatile manner [8] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest conditions, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, it is the seasonal off - season for demand, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: As of July 3, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.73%, 1.89 percentage points lower than the previous week and 1.55 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 70.04%, 7.64 percentage points lower than the previous week and 9.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipping rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 million tons, a 0.7 - million - ton increase, or a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 million tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 million tons, a 0.3% decrease. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.66 (+1.19) million tons [9][10] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 8 yuan to 4906 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 106 (+28) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 97 (+13) yuan/ton [12] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The overall operating rate of PVC this week was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase. Factory inventories were 38.6 million tons (-0.9), and social inventories were 59.2 million tons (+1.7). The corporate profit pressure has further increased, and there are many maintenance plans recently, but the production volume remains high, and there are expectations of multiple plant commissionings in the short - term. The domestic operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is gradually entering the off - season. In July, India's anti - dumping measures are expected to be implemented, and exports are expected to weaken. The cost support is expected to weaken as the calcium carbide production restriction eases [12] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices have fallen, while futures prices have risen, and the basis has weakened [14] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase over the weekend. The cost of pure benzene has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the styrene operating rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased. It is the seasonal off - season, and the overall operating rate of the three S products on the demand side has decreased. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN is expected to recover. It is expected that the styrene price will fluctuate with a downward bias [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have fallen. The主力 contract closed at 7282 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan decrease [17] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase. The spot price of polyethylene has fallen, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Traders' inventories at a high level have started to decline marginally, which provides some support for prices. It is the seasonal off - season, and the order volume of agricultural films on the demand side has decreased marginally, with the overall operating rate fluctuating downward. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there are no new capacity commissioning plans in July. The polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile [17] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have risen. The主力 contract closed at 7078 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase [18] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. It is expected that the polypropylene price will be bearish in July. The LL - PP spread has formed a bottom and is expected to gradually widen in the second half of the year [18] PX & PTA & MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 68 yuan to 6672 yuan, and PX CFR fell 9 dollars to 840 dollars. The basis was 254 yuan (-5), and the 9 - 1 spread was 90 yuan (-40) [20] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The Chinese PX operating rate was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants have reduced their loads or undergone maintenance, while some overseas plants have restarted or increased their loads. In June, South Korea's PX exports to China were 34 million tons, a 3.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of May was 434.6 million tons, a 16.5 - million - ton decrease month - on - month. The PXN was 271 dollars (-11), and the naphtha crack spread was 73 dollars (+8). After the end of the maintenance season, the PX load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. The current valuation is at a neutral level [20][21] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 36 yuan/ton to 4710 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 55 yuan to 4835 yuan. The basis was 97 yuan (-30), and the 9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan (-24) [22] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.5% increase. The downstream operating rate was 90.6%, a 0.8% decrease. Some downstream plants have undergone maintenance or reduced their loads. On June 27, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.7 million tons, a 0.3 - million - ton decrease. The spot processing fee of PTA fell 7 yuan to 292 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 9 yuan to 333 yuan. In July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight inventory reduction, and the processing fee has support. The polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and it is not expected to significantly reduce production, but the bottle - chip plants have plans to reduce production. The demand side is slightly under pressure [22] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 4277 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4365 yuan. The basis was 76 (0), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 36 yuan (0) [23] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The ethylene glycol operating rate was 66.5%, a 0.7% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants have undergone maintenance or restarted. The downstream operating rate was 90.6%, a 0.8% decrease. Some downstream plants have undergone maintenance. The import arrival forecast was 15 million tons, and the East China departure volume on July 3 was 1 million tons. Port inventories were 54.5 million tons, a 7.7 - million - ton decrease. The naphtha - based production profit was - 483 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 828 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1028 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 850 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 490 yuan. It is expected that the port inventory reduction will gradually slow down, and the fundamental situation is weak, but it may be stronger in the short - term due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Global market shows a differentiated pattern, with the Fed's rate - cut expectations constrained by inflation resilience and the ECB hinting at the end of the easing cycle. The equity market is supported by loose funds, but external disturbances and volume - energy sustainability should be watched [3]. - Crude oil may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but its upside is limited in the long - term without major geopolitical impacts on supply [4]. - Gold is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, and investors should pay attention to US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [5][6]. - Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation, and US inflation data will affect its short - term direction [7]. - Most chemical products are expected to have a weak or bearish short - term trend, with supply - demand contradictions and inventory changes being important influencing factors [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. - Rubber may have a weak rebound after the short - term negative factors are realized, but it is still affected by the oversupply situation [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price is in an oscillation range, and the progress of Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment should be watched [19]. - Agricultural products show different trends. Corn may oscillate in the short - term, peanuts may decline slightly but have limited downside, cotton may be strong in the short - term, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply - demand and seasonal factors [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. - Metal prices have different trends. Copper may touch the bubble price line, aluminum may oscillate in a range, alumina shows a weak adjustment, and other metals are also affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and global economic situation [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - Black metal products' prices also vary. Stainless steel may oscillate at a low level, and steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil can be considered for light - position long positions at low prices, while iron ore and coal may oscillate in the short - term [41][42][43][44][45][46] Summary by Industry Macro - Index - Market analysis: Global markets are differentiated. The Fed's rate - cut expectations are constrained, and the ECB hints at the end of the easing cycle. The central bank maintains a "broad credit, stable currency" policy. The equity market is supported by loose funds, with capital flowing to non - banking finance and technology sectors. Index futures show short - covering and a decline in the PCR indicator [3]. - Reference view: Pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's policy implementation. Short - term holding along the 5 - day moving average is advisable. Be wary of the risk of insufficient volume energy [3]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The second - round Sino - US negotiations reach a "framework agreement in principle," and the oil price may oscillate strongly. Focus on the key level of $65 per barrel for WTI [4]. - Market analysis: OPEC lowers global demand growth forecasts, and US policies cause concerns about demand. Although US crude oil inventories decline, refined product inventories increase. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase supply uncertainty, and OPEC+ plans to increase production [4]. - Reference view: Watch whether WTI can break through $65 per barrel in the short - term. In the long - term, the upside is limited without major geopolitical impacts [4]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: US economic resilience pressures short - term gold prices, but multiple factors support it in the long - term. Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks limit the downside space, and the Fed's policy also affects the price [5]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold futures warehouse receipts are stable with a slight increase. The spot price has a discount compared to the futures price [6]. - Operation suggestion: Gold is expected to oscillate. Investors should watch US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [6]. Silver - Market price: On June 11, the international spot silver price oscillated narrowly [7]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts increased significantly. Global economic growth expectations are lowered, and trade tensions ease, reducing the safe - haven demand for silver [7]. - Operation suggestion: Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to US inflation data [7]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The East China spot price decreased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: Oil price fluctuations affect PTA costs. PTA device maintenance and restart coexist, with an overall increase in the operating rate and a decrease in inventory days. Polyester and textile loads decline, and weak orders may intensify supply - demand contradictions [8]. - Reference view: It may oscillate bearishly in the short - term [8]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The East China spot price is flat, and the basis is positive [9]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows a slight decline in the overall operating rate and an increase in coal - based production. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Inventories in the East China main port increase, and future arrivals may limit the upside [9]. - Reference view: The price may be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. PVC - Spot information: The East China 5 - type PVC spot price increased, and the ethylene - calcium price difference decreased [10][11]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, but downstream demand is still weak. Inventories decreased. The futures price oscillated at a low level without significant fundamental improvement [10][11]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [11]. PP - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions fluctuate slightly [12]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, and production volume rose. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream orders decreased. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price oscillated at a low level [12]. - Reference view: Demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. Plastic - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions have different changes [14]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The downstream average operating rate changed little. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price may oscillate [14]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price may oscillate in the short - term [14]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The heavy - soda prices in different regions are stable [15]. - Market analysis: The overall operating rate and production volume increased. Factory inventories increased slightly, and social inventories decreased. Demand is average, and the market lacks new drivers [15]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: The 5mm glass prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The operating rate and production volume decreased slightly. Inventories increased, and demand is weak. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [17]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade negotiations and typhoons affect the price. The supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season. Downstream tire operating rates decline, and trade - war concerns suppress demand, but there is a rebound expectation after the negative factors are realized [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream operating rates. It may start a weak rebound after short - term negative factors are realized [18]. Methanol - Spot information: The East China spot price increased, and prices in other regions vary [19]. - Market analysis: The futures price increased slightly. Port inventories increased. Supply pressure is high, and demand from MTO devices recovers, while traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [19]. - Reference view: The futures price is in an oscillation range. Watch Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: Corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [20]. - Market analysis: Good weather in US corn - growing areas and Sino - US trade relations affect imports. The domestic market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with tight supply in the short - term. Wheat substitution and weather are key factors. Downstream demand is weak [20][21]. - Reference view: The corn futures price may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short - term [21]. Peanut - Spot price: Peanut prices in different regions are provided [22]. - Market analysis: The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. The market is in the inventory - consumption period, with low imports and low inventory levels. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventories may support the price [22]. - Reference view: The peanut price may decline slightly in the short - term, but the downside is limited. Band - trading is advisable [22]. Cotton - Spot information: The Chinese cotton spot price index and Xinjiang cotton arrival price are provided [23]. - Market analysis: Sino - US relations ease, boosting the market. In the long - term, cotton supply is expected to be abundant. In the short - term, low imports and low commercial inventories support the price, but downstream demand is weak [23]. - Reference view: The cotton price may be strong in the short - term. Watch whether it can fill the previous gap [23]. Pig - Spot market: The average price of live pigs in major production and sales areas increased slightly [24]. - Market analysis: Farmers resist low - price sales, reducing supply. Demand is weak due to warm weather, and terminal consumption lacks improvement [24]. - Reference view: The live - pig futures price may oscillate weakly. Watch the slaughter situation [24]. Egg - Spot market: The national average egg price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing chickens decreases, and old - hen culling increases, supporting the price. Demand may increase in the tourism and catering industries during the summer vacation, but the plum - rain season suppresses consumption [25]. - Reference view: The egg futures price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [25]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The rapeseed meal price in Fangchenggang increased [27]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is weak due to a small price difference with soybean meal and the off - season. Watch Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [27]. - Reference view: Watch the performance of rapeseed meal futures at the upper pressure level [27]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The rapeseed oil price in Fangchenggang is stable [28]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short - to - medium - term [28]. - Reference view: The rapeseed oil futures price may oscillate near the platform [28]. Soybean No. 2 - Spot information: Import costs of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans are provided [29]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market confidence. Good weather in US soybean - growing areas and the peak season of Brazilian soybean exports affect the price [29]. - Reference view: The soybean No. 2 futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [29]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: Soybean meal prices in different regions are provided [30]. - Market analysis: Pay attention to Sino - US trade talks. Internationally, trade talks boost confidence, and tariffs and weather are key factors. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and downstream demand is weak, but inventory accumulation is slow [30]. - Reference view: The soybean meal futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [30]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Soybean oil prices in different regions are provided [31]. - Market analysis: Internationally, supply pressure and falling oil prices put pressure on soybean oil. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and demand is in the off - season, with inventory accumulation pressure increasing [31]. - Reference view: The soybean oil futures price may oscillate in the short - term [31] Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the import copper ore index also rose [32]. - Market analysis: US economic data reduces recession concerns and rate - cut expectations. Global tariffs and domestic policies affect the market. Raw material issues and inventory changes make the market more complex [33]. - Reference view: The copper price may touch the bubble price line. Consider removing defenses based on signals [33]. Aluminum - Spot information: The Shanghai spot aluminum price increased [34]. - Market analysis: The cost of alumina increases, supporting the theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum. Supply is expected to be in surplus, and demand is in the off - season. Inventories decline, and the spot market is at a premium, but demand limits the upside [34]. - Reference view: The aluminum futures price may oscillate in a range [34]. Alumina - Spot information: The national average alumina price decreased slightly, and prices in different regions vary [35]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market sentiment. Supply slightly decreases as smelters' profits improve. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories start to accumulate. The price is under pressure [35]. - Reference view: The alumina futures price shows a weak adjustment trend [35]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The national and East China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy are stable [36]. - Market analysis: The high price of scrap aluminum supports the cost. Supply is in surplus as the industry expands. Demand from new - energy vehicles and electronics is resilient but limited by tariffs and the global economy. Inventories are high and may continue to accumulate [36]. - Reference view: The cast aluminum alloy futures price may be strong [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are stable [38]. - Market analysis: The upstream raw - material market shows signs of stabilization, supply is stable but the structure is adjusting, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at the bottom [38]. - Reference view: Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can trade in the range [38]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon are stable [39]. - Market analysis: Supply increases slightly, and demand is weak as downstream industries cut production or have low operating rates. Inventories are digested slowly, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it may rebound [39]. - Reference view: The industrial silicon futures price may oscillate strongly at the bottom [39]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [40]. - Market analysis: Supply shows no obvious contraction, and demand is weak overall, with some differentiation. Exports decline. The market's supply - demand contradiction is not alleviated [40]. - Reference view: The polysilicon futures price may oscillate. Watch the previous low - point support [40] Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel coil increased [41]. - Market analysis: Technically, it may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. Fundamentally, the raw - material market is quiet, and cost supports the price, but weak demand restricts the upside [41]. - Reference view: It may oscillate widely at a low level. Wait and see for now [41]. Rebar - Spot information: The price of rebar in Shanghai is stable [42]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, and demand is in the off - season, but inventories are low and the valuation is low [42][43]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [43]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is stable [44]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, apparent demand recovers, and inventories are low with a low valuation [44]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [44]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The iron ore price index and futures price are provided [45]. - Market analysis: Supply pressure eases as global shipments increase and domestic production rises slightly. Demand weakens as steel - mill operating rates decline, but current iron - water production is still high. Port inventories increase, and demand in the off - season is expected to be weak. Sino - US tariff easing boosts sentiment, but steel - billet exports are uncertain. Non - mainstream ore production cuts support the price, but reduced steel - mill profits may suppress demand [45]. - Reference view: The iron ore futures price may oscillate in the short - term. Watch port inventory

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, due to the unclear outcome of the US - Iran negotiation, although OPEC has shown clear production - increase data, considering the bottom - support effect of shale oil and the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, the current risk - return ratio is not suitable for short - chasing, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. - For methanol, with sufficient domestic supply and a weak macro - environment, there may be a further decline. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies. For cross -品种 trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, the price is expected to have no obvious trend. Given the low basis at the same period, there is no safety margin for long - trading, so short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For rubber, after an oversold rebound, the price is oscillating. Short - long or neutral strategies with short - term operations are recommended. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, but beware of rebounds if the weak export expectation fails to materialize [13]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain oscillating in June as the short - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there is no new capacity - commissioning plan [16]. - For polypropylene, due to planned capacity expansion in June and a seasonal decline in demand, the price is expected to be bearish in June [17]. - For PX, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June as the maintenance season ends, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [19]. - For PTA, with supply still in the maintenance season and moderate inventory pressure in the polyester and chemical fiber sector, PTA will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industrial fundamentals are still in the de - stocking stage, but the de - stocking of port inventory is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation correction as the maintenance season ends [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main - contract crude - oil futures rose $0.61, or 0.94%, to $65.38; Brent main - contract crude - oil futures rose $0.48, or 0.72%, to $67.13; INE main - contract crude - oil futures rose 8.20 yuan, or 1.76%, to 474.3 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude - oil arrival inventory decreased by 2.27 million barrels to 204.55 million barrels, a 1.10% week - on - week decline; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 0.66 million barrels to 84.21 million barrels, a 0.78% decline; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 96.16 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; total refined - oil commercial inventory increased by 0.15 million barrels to 180.37 million barrels, a 0.09% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 9, the 09 - contract rose 13 yuan/ton to 2277 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 58 [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has bottomed out and rebounded as previously - maintained plants resume operation, and is at a high level in the same period. Enterprise profits have continuously declined from a high level. Demand has slightly improved as the MTO device at the port has returned to a high - operation level, and traditional demand has generally rebounded this week. The port inventory has increased slowly, and the price has shown strength. Inland supply has increased while demand has weakened, and the price has declined, leading to an expanding price difference between the port and the inland area [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 9, the 09 - contract fell 23 yuan/ton to 1697 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 70 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 83 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply remains at a high level, and daily output continues to rise. Demand has decreased as the production of compound fertilizers for the summer season is ending, and the enterprise operation rate has rapidly declined. The pre - order volume of urea enterprises has continuously decreased. Under the situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, enterprise inventory has accumulated to a high level in the same period, and the basis has widened [5]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are oscillating and consolidating [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber - forest situation, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may contribute to rubber production reduction. Bears believe that the macro - expectation has deteriorated, demand is flat and in a seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices will stimulate a large amount of new supply throughout the year, and the production - reduction amplitude may be lower than expected [9]. - **Industry Data**: As of June 5, 2025, the operation rate of full - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.45%, 1.33 percentage points lower than last week but 2.56 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of tire factories is consumed slowly. The operation rate of domestic semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.49%, 4.39 percentage points lower than last week and 6.75 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Overseas new - order performance is poor. As of June 1, 2025, China's natural - rubber social inventory was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons or 2.1% from the previous period. China's dark - rubber social inventory was 763,000 tons, a 3.4% week - on - week decline; light - rubber social inventory was 517,000 tons, a 0.1% decline. As of June 9, 2025, the natural - rubber inventory in Qingdao was 484,200 (- 1,500) tons [10]. - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 13,600 (+ 50) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,685 (+ 5) US dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,675 (+ 5) US dollars; Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9,450 (- 100) yuan; North China cis - butadiene rubber was 11,400 (0) yuan [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4,816 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,700 (0) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 79 (- 4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost and Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall operation rate of PVC has increased. The downstream operation rate has slightly increased. Factory inventory has increased, and social inventory has decreased. Fundamentally, enterprise profit pressure has improved, the maintenance season has ended, and future production is expected to increase. There are expectations of multiple device commissions. The domestic operation rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season. Export orders have weakened, and there is an expectation of weakening due to Indian policies and anti - dumping and BIS certification. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the valuation support has weakened [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main - contract closing price was 7,078 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7,150 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The fire in Alberta, Canada, has offset the OPEC +'s planned production increase of 411,000 barrels in July. The spot price of polyethylene has risen, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. The new - capacity addition in June is small, and the supply - side pressure may be relieved. The inventory at the upper and middle reaches has decreased from a high level, which supports the price. It is a seasonal off - season, and the demand for agricultural films has decreased marginally, with the overall operation rate oscillating downward [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main - contract closing price was 6,932 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 188 yuan/ton, weakening by 7 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The fire in Alberta, Canada, has offset the OPEC +'s planned production increase of 411,000 barrels in July. Although the spot price has not changed, the decline is much smaller than that of PE. There is a planned capacity expansion of 2.2 million tons in June, which is the most concentrated month of the year. The downstream operation rate is expected to decline seasonally as the plastic - weaving orders have reached a phased peak [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 62 yuan to 6,494 yuan, and PX CFR fell 10 US dollars to 808 US dollars. The basis was 198 yuan (- 20), and the 9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan (- 42) [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PX operation rate in China has increased to 87%, a 4.9% increase, and the Asian operation rate has increased to 75.1%, a 3.1% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants have restarted or adjusted their operation loads. The PTA operation rate is 81.3%, a 4.9% increase. In May, South Korea's PX exports to China were 303,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 87,000 tons. The inventory at the end of April was 4.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons. The PXN is 240 US dollars (- 18), and the naphtha crack spread is 72 US dollars (- 7) [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 50 yuan to 4,602 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 65 yuan/ton to 4,830 yuan. The basis was 208 yuan (- 17), and the 9 - 1 spread was 110 yuan (- 26) [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA operation rate is 81.3%, a 4.9% increase. Some plants have restarted, postponed restart, or carried out maintenance. The downstream operation rate is 91.1%, a 0.6% decrease. Some downstream plants have adjusted their production. The terminal draw - texturing operation rate has decreased by 2% to 80%, and the loom operation rate has decreased by 1% to 68%. As of May 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.208 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons from the previous period. The PTA spot processing fee has decreased by 11 yuan to 440 yuan, and the futures processing fee has decreased by 9 yuan to 342 yuan [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 5 yuan to 4,256 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 26 yuan to 4,382 yuan. The basis was 115 (- 8), and the 9 - 1 spread was 3 yuan (- 18) [21]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The ethylene - glycol operation rate is 59.9%, unchanged from the previous period. Some domestic and overseas plants have carried out maintenance or restarted. The downstream operation rate is 91.1%, a 0.6% decrease. Some downstream plants have adjusted their production. The terminal draw - texturing operation rate has decreased by 2% to 80%, and the loom operation rate has decreased by 1% to 68%. The import arrival forecast is 108,000 tons, and the average daily departure from the East - China port from June 6 - 8 was 930 tons, with an increase in outbound volume. The port inventory is 634,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons. The naphtha - based production profit is - 356 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit is - 461 yuan, and the coal - based production profit is 1,218 yuan. The cost of ethylene has remained unchanged at 780 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines has decreased to 450 yuan [21].