Group 1 - Japan's exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year in November, driven primarily by semiconductor components and medical supplies, exceeding economists' expectations [1][3] - Exports to the United States and the European Union saw significant growth, with increases of 8.8% and 19.6% respectively [1][3] - The trade surplus for Japan was recorded at 322.3 billion yen (approximately 2.1 billion USD), with imports rising by 1.3%, slightly below general expectations [3] Group 2 - The rebound in exports to the U.S. is seen as a positive signal for the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise the benchmark interest rate to its highest level since 1995 [3][4] - Japan's trade with China declined by 2.4%, influenced by issues related to semiconductor manufacturing machinery and non-ferrous metals, as well as diplomatic tensions following comments made by Japan's Prime Minister [3][4] - The increase in exports of automobiles and parts to the U.S. was noted after the reduction of tariffs from 27.5% to 15%, with a 1.5% increase in export value and a 7.7% increase in export quantity [4]

美国最大港口洛杉矶港的执行董事Gene Seroka周二表示，该港口11月份的进口量较上年同期减少 11.5%，原因是托运人提前建立了库存，以避免美国总统特朗普对玩具、汽车零部件和金属家具等商品 征收关税。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 美国最大港口洛杉矶港的执行董事Gene Seroka周二表示，该港口11月份的进口量较上年同期减少 11.5%，原因是托运人提前建立了库存，以避免美国总统特朗普对玩具、汽车零部件和金属家具等商品 征收关税。 Seroka表示，11月份，洛杉矶港处理了406421个20英尺标准箱（TEU）的进口货物。 Seroka表示，他预计2025年该港口的总吞吐量将超过1000万标准箱，与2024年大致持平，是有记录以来 的第三高水平，尽管美国关税政策导致吞吐量大幅波动。 "我认为不确定性将继续存在，至少在明年是这样，"Seroka说。"这是我们未来一段时间可能面临的逆 风。" 供应链技术供应商笛卡尔系统集团（Descartes Systems Group，DSG）本月较早时表示，11月份美国所 有港口的进口量较上年同期下降了7.8%。 美国最高法院预计将在未来几个月就特朗普政府根据《国际紧 ...

他 预计2026年前六个月通胀将大幅下降 ，房租也将大幅下降，并认为尽管物价水平已经非常高，但实际工资的提升将能解决 这一问题。 同时，贝森特指出，美国总统 特朗普将于1月初公布美联储主席人选，本周可能还有一到两次面试 。这一关键任命将影响未来 数年美国货币政策走向，市场对此高度关注。 贝森特在表态中否认了外界对新任美联储主席独立性的质疑，称特朗普在面试中对政策相关问题一直非常直率。他表示， 候选 人沃什和哈塞特都非常有资格，并驳斥了"哈塞特无法在美联储拥有影响力"的说法。 贝森特称， 国会应当停止（议员的）股票交易行为。 贝森特称，本周和下周可能还有一两次美联储主席的面试，否认对新任主席独立性的质疑，称候选人沃什和哈塞特都非常有资 格，强调新主席要有"开放的思维"，特别是要打破联储常有的增长导致通胀观念，驳斥哈塞特无法在联储拥有影响力的说法；预 计1月最高院作出关税案裁决，警告推翻关税将危害国家安全；一季度会有1000亿至1500亿美元巨额退税，平均每个家庭可能 得到1000至2000美元。 新美联储主席要打破增长导致通胀的观念 周二（12月16日），美国财政部长贝森特表示，对美国经济前景表达乐观预期，预计 ...

Core Points - President Trump is set to deliver a crucial speech to the nation amid declining approval ratings and economic challenges, aiming to outline his policy agenda and achievements [1] - Recent polls indicate a nearly 10 percentage point drop in public approval regarding Trump's handling of economic and immigration issues since March [1][3] - The upcoming midterm elections will serve as a test of Trump's political influence and the Republican Party's ability to maintain control of Congress [1] Economic Challenges - Economic issues have emerged as a primary challenge for Trump, with concerns over wage growth slowing and rising household costs becoming central to voter concerns [2][3] - Political opponents are criticizing Trump's tariff policies, attributing rising consumer prices and inflation to these measures [3] - Trump has initiated a domestic campaign to address economic pressures, including policies aimed at reducing costs and providing assistance to farmers affected by low agricultural prices and tariffs [3] Policy and Governance - Since returning to the White House, Trump has focused on reshaping the U.S. economic and national security landscape through tariffs on trade partners and key industries [4] - His administration has tested the boundaries of executive power by reducing the federal workforce and cutting funding for programs criticized by conservatives [4] - Trump is also working to fulfill campaign promises related to immigration, including large-scale deportations and tightening legal entry pathways [4]

责任编辑：张俊 SF065 随着特朗普关税政策造成美国的食品、人工和公用事业成本上涨，达登餐饮旗下的Olive Garden （DRI）、Texas Roadhouse（TXRH）以及Dine Brands旗下的Applebee's（DIN）依靠选择性提价、简化 菜单及与Sysco（SYY）等供应链伙伴合作，以抵消不利影响。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 随着特朗普关税政策造成美国的食品、人工和公用事业成本上涨，达登餐饮旗下的Olive Garden （DRI）、Texas Roadhouse（TXRH）以及Dine Brands旗下的Applebee's（DIN）依靠选择性提价、简化 菜单及与Sysco（SYY）等供应链伙伴合作，以抵消不利影响。 ...

这份延迟已久的就业报告，为近几个月明显降温的美国劳动力市场提供了新的线索。通胀回升以及关税 政策的不确定性，抑制了企业扩大用工规模的意愿；与此同时，特朗普政府针对移民的政策也减少了劳 动力供给，使得潜在求职者数量下降。这意味着，在劳动力供给受限的情况下，即便就业需求增长不 快，也未必会立刻推高失业率。 美东时间周二，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国11月季调后非农就业人口录得6.4万人，高于市 场普遍预期的4.5万人。而10月则减少了10.5万个，预期为下降2.5万人。 美国11月失业率升至4.6%，高于市场预期的4.4%，为2021年9月以来新高。 此外，8月份非农新增就业 人数从-0.4万人修正至-2.6万人；9月份非农新增就业人数从11.9万人修正至10.8万人。修正后，8月和9 月新增就业人数合计较修正前低3.3万人。 由于美国政府停摆影响了10月的数据采集，10月数据被纳入本次就业报告中。10月非农就业下降主要源 于政府部门大幅裁员，今年早些时候推迟实施的裁员计划开始生效。10月政府部门岗位减少16.2万，11 月又减少6000个。 在过去数月中，由于官方数据发布受阻，经济学家不得不主要依赖滞后性 ...

Trade Environment - The trade environment is stabilizing as US-China relations improve, with significant agreements reached during recent talks[5] - Major economies in Europe and the US are still in a phase of fiscal expansion and monetary easing, with the IMF predicting stable economic growth in developed economies[8][9] Export Growth Analysis - Global trade growth is expected to slow down due to high base effects from "export grabbing" and increased tariff rates, with a projected growth rate of 0-1% for exports in 2026[2] - Exports to the US and ASEAN may exhibit a "seesaw" effect, with significant contributions from transshipment trade to ASEAN exports this year[2] - Africa is identified as the fastest-growing export region, driven by demand for vehicles, ships, and consumer electronics[2] Economic Forecasts - The IMF forecasts that global trade volume growth will decline from approximately 3.7% in 2025 to 2.0% in 2026, with China's export volume growth expected to drop from 9.8% to 1.9%[20][21] - The US economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see slight declines in growth rates[9][8] Currency and Pricing - The RMB is anticipated to maintain a "stable yet slightly strong" trend, with export prices expected to decline marginally by around 2%[2] - The IMF predicts a decrease in global trade prices from 0.6% in 2025 to 0.1% in 2026, influenced by falling oil prices and domestic inflationary pressures[2] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include geopolitical conflicts and unexpected macroeconomic fluctuations that could impact trade dynamics[2]

来源：金十数据整理（2025-12-16） 1． 已征收逾2000亿美元关税——据美国海关和边境保护局称，自2025年初以来，由于美国总统特朗普 实施的新关税，美国今年已征收超过2000亿美元的关税。 2． 打击芬太尼却为大麻松绑——特朗普：将签署行政命令，将芬太尼列为"大规模杀伤性武器"。考虑 下令放松联邦大麻限制。 3． 通报俄乌和平协议进展——特朗普：我认为我们现在比以往任何时候都更接近目标（达成俄乌停 火）。 4． 向BBC索赔50亿美元——文件显示：美国总统特朗普就"1月6日事件"演讲的剪辑片段起诉英国广播 公司诽谤，索赔50亿美元。 5． 叫停美英科技协议——据英国金融时报报道，由于美国对与伦敦的贸易谈判进展日益不满，美国暂 停了在特朗普访问期间与英国达成的科技协议的实施。 6． 斥责内塔尼亚胡违反停火协议——两名美国官员透露，白宫已私下向以色列总理内塔尼亚胡发出严 厉警告，称其上周末击毙哈马斯高级军事指挥官的行为违反了由特朗普斡旋达成的加沙停火协议。 7． 美联储主席人选博弈加剧——知情人士透露，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特担任美联储主席 的候选资格曾被市场视为几乎板上钉钉，但现在却遭到一些 ...

| | | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、宏观分析 | | 9 | | 三、基本面分析 | | 19 | | 四、总结和展望 | | 22 | 贵金属年报 2025 年 12 月 图表目录 | 贵金属年报 | 2025 年 12 月 | | --- | --- | | 贵金属年报 | 2025-12 | | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | 摘要： | 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 | | 回顾 2025 年，美国经济指标走弱，美国零售销售、就业数据陆续走弱， | | | 导致美国经济预期恶化。而美国政府关门造成的数据真空也使得美国经济不确 | | | 定性增强，这些都是贵金属价格的支撑之一。除此以外，今年贵金属的主线交 | 研究员：黄思源 | | 易逻辑不断切换：从避险情绪，到关税政策，再到降息预期和白银供需关系。 | 从业资格证：F03124114 投资分析证：Z0023501 | | 这使得贵金属价格在上涨的同时有所分化，白银最终涨幅超过黄金金银比价得 | | | 以修复。 | | | 展望后市，全球贸易格局重塑之下，美元信用受损，金银长线逻辑不变 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the weakening of US economic indicators and the government shutdown increased economic uncertainty, supporting precious metal prices. The trading logic of precious metals kept changing, leading to price increases and differentiation, with silver outperforming gold and the gold - silver ratio being repaired [1][65]. - Looking ahead, the reshaping of the global trade pattern has damaged the US dollar's credit, and the long - term logic for gold and silver remains unchanged. In 2026, the Fed will still be in a rate - cut cycle, and the weakening US dollar index will support the financial attribute premium of precious metals. Silver, with its "strategic resource + financial attribute + industrial attribute" triple - drive, is expected to continue to rise with high volatility and outperform gold [1][65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **External and Internal Markets**: Both New York gold and silver and Shanghai gold and silver showed an overall upward - trending and volatile pattern in 2025. New York silver and Shanghai silver had greater increases than their gold counterparts. As of December 11, New York gold closed at $4258.30 per ounce with a 52.86% annual increase, and New York silver closed at $62.20 per ounce with a 101.40% increase. Shanghai gold closed at 956.40 yuan per gram with a 52.39% increase, and Shanghai silver closed at 14373.00 yuan per kilogram with an 88.75% increase [6][7]. - **Five Trading Phases**: The trading logic of the precious metal market in 2025 can be divided into five phases: from January to March, driven by risk - aversion sentiment; from April, affected by tariff policies; from June to September, focused on the repair of the gold - silver ratio and industrial attributes; from September to November, driven by rate - cut expectations; from November onwards, influenced by silver supply - demand relationships [9][10][12][13]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The gold - silver ratio continued to rise at the beginning of the year and then gradually repaired. Currently, it has returned to near the lowest level since 2020, and the ratios in domestic and foreign markets are gradually converging [17]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **US Economic Fundamentals** - **GDP**: The release of the Q3 2025 US GDP data was postponed. The Q2 real GDP annualized growth rate was 3.8%, and the Q3 forecasted growth rate was 3.9% [19]. - **PMI**: In November, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.2%, indicating accelerated contraction, while the service PMI was 52.6%, continuing to expand. However, the employment index in both sectors was in a contraction state [23][24]. - **Inflation**: Both CPI and PCE indices fluctuated but showed a cooling trend overall. In September, CPI and core CPI were lower than expected, and PCE and core PCE both increased by 2.8% year - on - year [26][28]. - **Employment**: In September, non - farm employment increased by 119,000. In November, ADP employment decreased by 32,000, but subsequent data such as challenger job cuts and initial jobless claims alleviated market concerns [32]. - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index first declined and then fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, it was driven by economic data and Fed policy expectations, and in the long term, it was affected by fiscal sustainability and global monetary policy differentiation. Overall, the long - term trend may be weak [37][38]. - **Tariff Policy**: Tariff policy changes in 2025 can be divided into four stages: full - scale tariff increases from January to March, the establishment of a "reciprocal tariff" system in April, negotiation and adjustment from May to October, and partial adjustments from November to December. The impact of tariffs on precious metal prices weakened in the second half of the year [39][44]. - **Fed Rate - Cut Expectations**: The Fed's rate - cut path in 2025 can be divided into three stages: waiting and seeing in the first half of the year, policy turning in the third quarter due to employment data, and rate cuts and internal differences becoming public at the end of the year. The rate - cut path in 2026 is uncertain [45][48]. - **Geopolitics**: In 2025, the change in the global geopolitical pattern increased market uncertainty, driving up the demand for precious metals as a safe - haven. Geopolitics will remain a core variable in the precious metal market in 2026 [51][52]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Gold**: In 2025, the global gold supply increased steadily, while the demand side showed significant structural differentiation. Investment demand, including ETFs and central bank purchases, was strong, while high prices suppressed traditional gold jewelry consumption [53][54]. - **Silver**: The silver market in 2025 continued to face a supply - demand imbalance. Supply was rigid due to factors such as mine strikes and limited recycling growth, while demand was driven by both industry (especially photovoltaics) and investment. The World Silver Association estimated a supply gap of 117 million ounces for the whole year [56][57]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the weakening US economy and changing trading logic supported precious metal prices, with silver outperforming gold. - In 2026, the long - term logic for gold and silver remains unchanged. The Fed's rate - cut cycle and the weakening US dollar will support precious metal prices. Silver is expected to continue to rise with high volatility and outperform gold due to its supply - demand situation and multiple attributes [1][65].