有色金属日报 2025-7-11 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 国内商品氛围较为高涨，铜价在美国征收高关税预期下震荡运行，昨日伦铜收涨 0.23%至 9682 美元 /吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78590 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存增加 975 至 108100 吨，注销仓单比 例提高至 37.9%，Cash/3M 升水收缩至零附近。国内方面，精炼铜社会库存量环比周一 ...

首席点评： 黑色板块继续上涨 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文，再度敦促美联储主席鲍威尔降息。此前一天，特朗普批评美联储当 前的利率政策，称美联储设定的利率至少偏高 3 个百分点，利率每个百分点每年给美国造成了 3600 亿 美元的再融资成本。消息称特朗普正考虑在美联储主席鲍威尔明年离任前为美联储任命一位 " 影子主席 " ，以向美联储施压，迫使其降息。中证报头版刊文称，今年上半年，各地发行用于置换存量隐性债务 的置换债近 1.8 万亿元，总体呈现早发、快发的特点。同时，多地在财政预算调整方案中安排专项债用 于偿还拖欠企业账款。国内商品期市夜盘收盘多数上涨，黑色系普遍上涨，焦煤涨 2.60% ，铁矿石涨 1.87% ；化工品中橡胶涨 1.19% ；油脂油料中豆粕涨 0.99% ，豆二涨 0.81% 。能源品普遍下跌，燃油 下跌 1.49% ，低硫燃料油下跌 0.57% 。 重点品种： 原油、焦煤、玻璃 7 月 10 日，中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟公布数据显示， 6 月，我国动力电池装车量 58.2GWh ，环 比增长 1.9% ，同比增长 35.9% 。其中三元电池装车量 10.7GWh ，占总装车量 18. ...

据央视新闻消息，当地时间7月10日，美国总统特朗普宣布，将自8月1日起，对自加拿大进口的商品 征收35%关税。 加元应声下跌。美元/加元一度上涨0.6%，至1.3731；美元兑G10货币悉数上涨，美元即期指数上涨 0.2%。澳元/美元下跌0.4%至0.6561。新西兰元/美元下跌0.4%至0.6014。 美股股指期货扩大跌幅，其中标普500指数期货跌0.5%，纳指期货下跌0.6%。 此前，特朗普表示美国将自2025年8月1日起对所有巴西产品征收50%的关税。巴西副总统兼发展、工 业、贸易和服务部长热拉尔多·阿尔克明当天表示，特朗普宣布对巴西商品征收新关税是不公平的。他回 应道, "我看不出有任何理由要对巴西提高关税。巴西不是美国的问题，这一点需要强调。美国确实有贸易 逆差，但对巴西是顺差。在美国对我们出口的产品中，十中有八都是零关税的，不需要缴税。"他进一步 表示，这项针对巴西的措施是不公平的，也会对美国自身经济造成损害，因为在贸易领域是存在一体化 的。 责编：叶舒筠 校对：高源 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's tariff policy is set to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper and Brazilian goods starting August 1, escalating trade tensions with Brazil. Brazilian President Lula seeks diplomatic solutions but warns of reciprocal measures if tariffs are enacted. This policy may increase commodity prices, intensifying inflationary pressures, which presents both opportunities and challenges for gold as an inflation hedge. However, a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields could offset this benefit [3]. - Recent U.S. labor data shows initial jobless claims fell to 227,000, below the expected 235,000, marking a seven-week low. Conversely, continuing claims rose to 1.965 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed individuals in finding new jobs [4]. - Strong employment data has bolstered the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, further suppressing gold prices. Potential signs of labor market weakness may provide support for gold's safe-haven demand in the future [5]. - The June Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that while some officials suggest a possible rate cut this month, most remain cautious about inflation pressures from tariffs, preferring to maintain the current policy rate of 4.25%-4.50%. St. Louis Fed President Bullard noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not fully materialize until late 2025 or early 2026, leading to a cautious stance on rate cuts. The futures market anticipates a 25 basis point cut in September and a total of 53 basis points by year-end. Fed Governor Waller's comments have injected some optimism, suggesting that the upcoming policy meeting may open the door for rate cuts. Lower interest rates typically weaken the dollar and boost gold prices, but the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may continue to limit gold's upside potential [6]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have been in a converging triangle pattern since encountering resistance at the 3500 level on April 22. Following a recent decline, gold showed signs of recovery, closing with a small gain on Thursday. The current moving averages are intertwined, indicating a short-term sideways market. Key resistance levels to watch are between 3340-3346, which coincide with the 20-day and 30-day moving averages and previous resistance points. A breakout above this range could extend the bullish trend towards the previous highs of 3365-3366 and the Fibonacci retracement level of 3374. Support is focused around 3284, formed by connecting the lows from May 15 and June 30 [7]. - On the four-hour chart, the price has recently approached a trendline resistance formed by the previous high since the decline from 3452. The price touched the 3330 resistance level, and there are indications of a potential upward breakout. If this occurs, the strategy should focus on maintaining support at the recent low of 3310, looking for buying opportunities during price pullbacks. Key upward targets include the 3345/3346 and 3365/3366 regions, while support levels to monitor are the recent low of 3310 and the lower low of 3282 [9].

日度报告——综合晨报 国办发文加大稳就业政策支持力度 宏观策略（股指期货） 国办发文加大稳就业政策支持力度 综 合 7 月 10 日受消息面影响，房地产板块大幅上涨。当前地产行业 确实存在维稳的必要，但政策内容目前仍难以确定。依照前期 表现看，房地产止跌回稳需要在供需两侧协同发力。 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-11 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国迟迟不签贸易协定，欧盟陷入僵局 美联储理事给出了美联储资产负债表的预计规模，我们认为这 是在给缩表预期做管理，但是这个预计的规模可能还是较低， 美元短期震荡。 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 央行开展了 900 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 基本面与风险偏好的再平衡是近期股市走强、债市略走弱的核 心原因，但当前的交易可持续性并不强。短期市场调整反而会 带来入场的机会，建议关注逢低布局中线多单的机会。 农产品（豆粕） CONAB 维持巴西大豆产量预估不变 ANEC 预计巴西 7 月大豆出口将继续下滑，巴西 CNF 升贴水保 持坚挺。USDA 周度出口销售报告符合预期，关注今晚 USDA 7 月供需报告。 有色金属（铜） 知情人士：特朗普 50% ...

Group 1 - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025, impacting the U.S. which relies on imports for nearly half of its copper consumption, primarily from Chile [1][1] - The White House National Economic Council Director criticized the Federal Reserve for a lack of transparency regarding the impact of tariffs on economic models, expressing concerns about the decoupling of U.S. and European interest rates [1][1] - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicated two potential rate cuts within the year due to a weak labor market, while inflation concerns may influence policy direction [1][1] Group 2 - The Bank of Korea decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, citing significant economic uncertainty due to U.S. tariffs [1][1] - The Bank of Japan kept its economic assessment unchanged across nine regions, believing the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports to be limited, although there are concerns about long-term global demand [1][1] Group 3 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 227,000, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline and the lowest level in two months, while continuing claims stood at 1.965 million, the highest since the end of 2021 [2][2] - OPEC revised down its global oil demand forecast for the next four years, projecting an average demand of 100.5 million barrels per day for this year, increasing to 106.3 million barrels per day by 2026 [2][2] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.43% to 44,650.64 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices reaching all-time highs [3][3] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.36% to $3,333.00 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 2.72% to $37.63 per ounce [3][3] Group 5 - U.S. crude oil futures fell by 2.21% to $66.87 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures decreased by 1.91% to $68.85 per barrel [4][4] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.10% to 97.59, with mixed movements against other currencies [4][4]

大家早上好！这里是今天的早报，每天早上，我都会在这里跟你聊聊昨夜今晨发生了哪些大事儿。 本 栏目由虎嗅出品。 热点追踪 【退休人员基本养老金上调2%】 据央视新闻，日前，人力资源社会保障部、财政部印发 《关于2025年调整退休人员基本养老金的通知》 。 《通知》明确，从2025年1月1日起，为2024年底前已按规定办理退休手续并按月领取基本养老金的退休人员提 高基本养老金水平， 总体调整水平为2024年退休人员月人均基本养老金的2%。 此次调整是综合考虑物价变动和职工工资增长等各方面因素，合理确定养老金调整比例。 《通知》要求，各省、自治区、直辖市要结合本地区实际，制定具体实施方案，抓紧组织实施，尽快把调整增 加的基本养老金发放到退休人员手中。 【美团辟谣"7万硕士，30万本科生送外卖"】 据界面新闻，7月10日，美团通过微信公众号"小团有话说"发文称，针对不少自媒体开始扩散"广州美团满员， 历史上第一次，本科率接近30%""7万硕士，30万本科生在美团送外卖"等不实信息，澄清如下：学历情况需要 骑手本人提交相关证书到学信网/教育部留学服务中心/海外高校的官方网站进行验证，任何关于骑手学历的总 量数据都没有事 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market closed at a historic high on Thursday, with the S&P 500 index rising by 0.27%, and 9 out of 11 sectors showing gains, particularly in consumer discretionary and energy stocks [1] - Delta Air Lines (DAL.US) saw its stock price surge by 11.99% after announcing a restored full-year profit outlook and an increase in passenger numbers, which also positively impacted travel-related companies and car rental stocks [1] - MP Materials (MP.US) experienced a dramatic stock price increase of 50.62%, marking its largest single-day gain, following a multi-billion dollar agreement with the US Department of Defense to build a magnet factory and expand rare earth production [1] Group 2 - Trade policy uncertainty continues as President Trump threatens to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil, while also announcing a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1 [4] - Analysts express concerns that the unpredictable tariff policies may weigh on the stock market, with a noted decrease in the likelihood of interest rate cuts in September due to policy delays [4] - There is a noticeable rotation in market performance, with previously underperforming sectors rebounding strongly, while early-year leaders are losing momentum, reflecting investor attempts to balance between optimistic consumption recovery and concerns over escalating trade tensions [4]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs despite tariff concerns, with Tesla shares rising by 4.7% due to the expansion of its Robotaxi business [2] - Nvidia's market capitalization increased to $4 trillion as it hit new highs for three consecutive days [2] - MP Materials, a rare earth mining company, saw its shares rise nearly 51% following a Pentagon investment [2] - Delta Airlines' stock surged by 12% after restoring its profit guidance for the year [2] - Bitcoin surged over $5,000, breaking the $116,000 mark, reaching a historical high [2] - Oil prices fell over 2% after hitting a two-week high, while gold continued to decline from a one-week low [2] Key News - Myanmar is negotiating with the Trump administration to reduce tariffs, proposing a zero to 10% tariff on U.S. goods in exchange for a reduction in U.S. tariffs to 10% to 20% [3][9] - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, leading to a surge in copper prices [10][13] - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal disagreements regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some members suggesting a potential interest rate cut in July [12][21] - OPEC+ is reportedly discussing a pause in production increases starting in October [12] - OpenAI is set to release an "open weight" AI model, potentially challenging Microsoft's exclusive agreements in the AI space [14] - MP Materials received a $400 million investment from the U.S. Department of Defense to expand its production capacity [15] Company Developments - Delta Airlines reported a second-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.10, exceeding expectations, and restored its full-year guidance [24] - MP Materials is expected to produce 10,000 tons annually at a new factory set to open in 2028, following significant investment [15] - Ant Group plans to introduce Circle's stablecoin and is considering applying for licenses in multiple regions [14] - TSMC reported a 38.6% year-over-year increase in Q2 sales, reaching approximately $319.5 billion New Taiwan dollars [18] Industry Insights - The copper market is expected to face a short-term price adjustment due to the upcoming 50% tariff, but the long-term outlook remains positive [25] - The human resources service industry is projected to grow steadily across economic cycles, with significant potential for expansion [26] - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing mixed performance, with strong demand for sportswear and outdoor products [25]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell centers around monetary policy, particularly the Fed's reluctance to lower interest rates despite economic pressures [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Renovation Controversy - The renovation project of the Federal Reserve headquarters has seen its budget increase from $1.8 billion to $2.5 billion, with a cost overrun of approximately $700 million, leading to criticism from the White House [1]. - The average renovation cost per square foot is reported to be $1,923, which is double the typical cost for federal building renovations [1]. - The White House has raised concerns that the renovation may violate federal laws and has requested a written response from Powell regarding several issues within seven working days [1]. Group 2: Economic Policy Disputes - Trump has consistently pressured the Fed to lower interest rates to support economic growth, especially following the implementation of large tariffs [2]. - The White House's dissatisfaction with the Fed's stance has intensified, with officials accusing the Fed of misjudging inflation and being slow to act [2]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin criticized the Fed for failing the American people, suggesting that its bureaucratic approach has led to worse outcomes [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Recent data shows that inflation remains moderate, with consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months holding steady at 3%, alleviating earlier concerns [3]. - Importers had stockpiled goods before tariffs were implemented, which helped mitigate short-term price pressures [3]. - Over half of the surveyed companies reported a decline in profit margins due to tariffs, with over 80% expecting to raise prices in the next six months [3]. Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes revealed a split among officials regarding future interest rate paths, with some advocating for preventive rate cuts [4]. - Powell indicated that if summer inflation data significantly underperforms expectations, he would consider lowering rates at an appropriate time [4]. - The market anticipates that the Fed will maintain current interest rates in the upcoming July meeting, which could provoke a stronger reaction from the Trump administration [4].