期 货 研 究 2025 年 11 月 19 日 铝：小幅企稳 氧化铝：区间震荡 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 【综合快讯】 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21465 | -260 | -200 | 485 | 850 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21510 | - | l | - | - | | | | LME铝3M收益价 | 2790 | -17 | -90 | 44 | 159 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 259462 | -16957 | 7 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures (LC2601.GFE) closed at 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan/ton (-1.76%) from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 87,420 yuan/ton, up 1.45% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. - The current basis was -7,180 points, a negative basis (spot discount), weakening by 690 points from the previous day, and the basis has been weakening overall in the past 10 trading days. - The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 26,611 lots, down 342 lots (-1.27%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have been decreasing overall in the past 10 trading days. - Social inventory has dropped to a low level. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures**: The main contract closing price was 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 6,980 yuan/ton from the previous week; the main contract settlement price was 94,600 yuan/ton, up 1,940 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 7,840 yuan/ton from the previous week. - **Lithium Ore**: The prices of lithium spodumene from different origins (Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Mali) showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous day and week; the prices of lithium mica with different Li2O contents in the Chinese market also increased. - **Lithium Compounds**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric-grade lithium carbonate was 87,420 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 5,060 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide showed an upward trend, while some market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some ternary materials and precursors remained stable, while the price of some products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate increased. [6] 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts showed the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts presented the price changes of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures Other Related Data**: Charts showed the changes in trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures. [7][10][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the shutdown and maintenance of plants at Hengli Petrochemical, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, and Zhongsha Petrochemical had a limited impact on the number of days. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's Line 3 restarted, and the PE production and capacity utilization rate increased month-on-month. The downstream agricultural film operating rate remained stable, the packaging film operating rate decreased slightly, and the overall operating rate of PE downstream decreased slightly. Production enterprise inventories accumulated significantly, social inventories decreased slightly, and total inventories accumulated. The cost of oil-based production decreased slightly, the cost of coal-based production increased slightly, and the losses of both oil-based and coal-based processes deepened. [2] - This week, Zhongying Petrochemical's plant will be shut down for maintenance, and the plants of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Zhongsha Petrochemical, and Shanghai Petrochemical are expected to restart. PE production and capacity utilization rate are expected to change little month-on-month. In November, there is less new planned maintenance capacity for PE, and at the same time, two new plants of Guangxi Petrochemical continue to increase production, resulting in high supply pressure. [2] - The demand for northern greenhouse films is gradually declining, while the demand for southern greenhouse films still provides some support. Orders and operating rates for agricultural films are expected to fluctuate slightly; orders for packaging films are marginally weakening, and demand follow-up is limited. [2] - In terms of cost, OPEC's production increase will continue until the end of the year, and the situation of stronger supply than demand for crude oil is expected to continue. However, geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela may intensify, and there are both positive and negative factors affecting international oil prices. In the short term, L2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range expected to be around 6750 - 6950. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan; the closing prices of the January, May, and September contracts were 6785 yuan/ton, 6852 yuan/ton, and 6906 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 58 yuan, 50 yuan, and 43 yuan. [2] - The trading volume was 260,592 lots, an increase of 53,772 lots; the open interest was 548,344 lots, an increase of 6,049 lots. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was -67, a decrease of 8; the long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 473,161 lots, an increase of 17,538 lots; the short positions were 584,549 lots, an increase of 20,653 lots; the net long positions were -111,388 lots, a decrease of 3,115 lots. [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6932.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.83 yuan; in East China, it was 7115.24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.33 yuan. [2] - The basis was 147.17, an increase of 40.17. [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.96 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.31 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 571.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.13 US dollars. [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 726 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 736 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 83.14%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene (PE) in packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 50.41%, 31.67%, and 49.96% respectively. The operating rate of packaging film decreased by 0.37 percentage points, while the others remained unchanged. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 8.89%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.68%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 13.05%, an increase of 2.24 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, China's total polyethylene production was 673,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.14%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points compared to the previous period. [2] - From November 7th to 13th, the average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural films remained the same as before, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.4%. [2] - As of November 12th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.96%; as of November 7th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 500,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.86%. [2] - From November 8th to 14th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.98 to 7256 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 35.43 yuan/ton to - 405.86 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 2.43% to 7051 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 211.57 yuan/ton to - 182.57 yuan/ton. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, the fuel oil contracts showed an overall oscillating downward trend, following the rhythm of international crude oil fluctuations. The main influencing factors were the game between the downward movement of the cost side and the support from the fundamentals. The decline in international crude oil prices put pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil, but the fundamental pattern of tight supply and low inventory in the domestic fuel oil market still provided some support [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,622 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 73 yuan/ton or 2.71% compared to the settlement price of the previous trading week. The highest price this week was 2,712 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,579 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 2,257,056 lots, and the open interest was 217,297 lots, an increase of 14,374 lots [3]. - **Variety Price**: The fuel oil futures contract prices showed a backwardation market pattern with near - term prices higher than long - term prices, and overall it was stronger in the near term and weaker in the long term. As the main contract, FU2601 continued to have concentrated liquidity, and the open interest of the FU contracts also showed a steady increase [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The fuel oil spot market performed poorly this week, and the current basis level was in the lower range of recent months. The fuel oil price was closely linked to crude oil, and the low - level consolidation of crude oil further restricted the upward elasticity of the basis [8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The fuel oil benchmark price decreased compared to the beginning of the month, but specific data was not clearly presented in the text [11].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/11/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,792.00 | +44.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,566.00 | +76.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 595,470.00 | - ...

财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-11-17 生猪价格上涨乏力，玉米关注上方 2200 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 Z0015545 生猪 上周生猪期货震荡偏弱，LH2601 合约报收 11775 元/吨，较前 周结算价下跌 1.01%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 11.96 元/公斤，环比下 跌 0.02 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 11 月 14 日，自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为-114.81 元/头，环比下降 25.6 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润 为-205.64 元/头，环比下降 30.1 元/头；猪粮比价为 5.38，周环 比下降 0.15。 上周全国生猪现货价格缓慢下跌，周初部分企业出栏有限，局 部成交略有溢价；但随着养殖场出栏积极性提高，散户挺价情绪松 动，叠加需求端整体欠佳，生猪价格承压下跌。目前来看，随着价 格下调后，养殖端低价认卖情绪降低，但考虑到需求端支撑有限， 难以对猪价形成强力提振，叠加前期二育补栏猪源或陆续出栏，阶 段性供强需弱格局难以扭转，生猪价格上涨动力不足，预计短期低 位震荡为主，后续继续重点关注养殖端出栏节奏 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the PX market has shown a rebound due to multiple factors. Despite the end of some planned maintenance and the gradual recovery of production capacity, PX output is still limited, driven by the soaring gasoline profit margins and the low benzene prices [2]. - The PTA supply has slightly contracted, while polyester production has remained stable with a load above 90%. Domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period has ended, downstream weaving has performed well, and export demand may improve [2]. - The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow the market trends. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4600 to 4565, a drop of 35 [2]. - MEG inner - market price decreased from 3961 to 3941, a drop of 20 [2]. - PTA closing price increased from 4670 to 4700, an increase of 30 [2]. - MEG closing price increased from 3891 to 3892, an increase of 1 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6382 to 6330, a drop of 55 [2]. - Short - fiber basis increased from 118 to 143, an increase of 25 [2]. - 12 - 1 spread decreased from 44 to 30, a drop of 14 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 985 to 930, a drop of 55 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5709 to 5686, a drop of 23 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5709 to 5686, a drop of 23 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5808 to 5786, a drop of 23 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price decreased from 760 to 755, a drop of 5 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 449 to 463, an increase of 13.63 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10310 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3925 to 3980, an increase of 55 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2]. - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14395 to 14380, a drop of 15 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1625 to 1668, an increase of 42.14 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7020 [2]. - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 560 to 597, an increase of 36.63 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained unchanged at 7480 [2]. Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber dropped 28 to 6224. The prices of production factories were stable, while those of traders decreased. Downstream demand was average, and on - site transactions were differentiated [2]. - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5680 - 5800 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated first down and then up. The supply - side quotations were a mix of stable and falling. The market trading atmosphere was light, and downstream terminals mainly followed up with rigid demand [2]. Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) decreased from 85.63% to 85.14% [3]. - Polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 38.00% to 56.00%, an increase of 18.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3]. - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50%, an increase of 0.01 [3].

1. Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Market: BU2601 opened at 3052 yuan/ton, closed at 3029 yuan/ton, with a high of 3058 yuan/ton, a low of 2999 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.05%, and a trading volume of 26.99 million lots. BU2512 opened at 3053 yuan/ton, closed at 3028 yuan/ton, with a high of 3063 yuan/ton, a low of 3003 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.21%, and a trading volume of 0.64 million lots [6]. - Spot Market: The asphalt spot prices in North China, South China, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions continued to decline, while those in other regions remained relatively stable. The decline in crude oil and asphalt futures prices had a negative impact on the sentiment of the asphalt spot market [6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Qilu Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil, while Jincheng Petrochemical is expected to resume asphalt production. Jinling Petrochemical in East China and Shengxing Petrochemical in Shandong are likely to maintain stable production after resuming operations. Shanghai Petrochemical also plans to switch to asphalt production around November 9. The asphalt plant operating rate is expected to increase slightly [7]. - Demand: The demand pattern shows regional differentiation. In the Northeast and Northwest regions, the rigid demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year due to the suspension of road projects. In North China, Shandong, and surrounding areas, the rigid demand remains stable due to the construction rush before the heating season. In the South, some projects are entering the construction rush stage, and the demand is expected to be stable. Overall, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the speculative demand remains weak, putting pressure on the market [7]. Market Outlook - The oil price lacks support, and the supply and demand of asphalt are both weak. After this round of decline, the basis has significantly narrowed. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate in the short term [7]. 3. Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt is 2980 - 3620 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. Although the international oil price declined again, the asphalt futures showed strong performance during the session. Due to the queuing for loading at some refineries, the quotes of most traders remained stable, and only a few refineries raised their prices [8]. - East China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt is 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. The asphalt futures weakened again during the session after two days of increase. The price of social inventories in Jiangsu is around 3200 yuan/ton, and the price increase is restricted by demand and regional price differences. Some refineries are under great inventory pressure, and the price difference between refineries and social inventories is large, so the prices are also under pressure. The ex-factory price for road transportation remains at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton [8]. 4. Data Overview - The report provides data on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][13][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Alumina: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interest, spreads, inventory levels, and corporate profitability in both the futures and spot markets [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 21,880, with an increase of 485 compared to T - 5 [1] - The trading volume of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 223,798, and the open interest was 420,066 [1] - The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,880, with an increase of 34 compared to T - 5 [1] - The LME注销仓单占比 was 6.19%, showing a decline of 1.71% compared to T - 5 [1] Alumina - The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,821, with an increase of 49 compared to T - 5 [1] - The trading volume of the SHFE alumina main contract was 267,963, and the open interest was 412,758 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,245, with an increase of 415 compared to T - 5 [1] - The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 6,280, and the open interest was 15,573 [1] Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 5,569.02, with an increase of 392.14 compared to T - 5 [1] - The aluminum spot import profit and loss was -1,917.34, and the aluminum plate and coil export profit and loss was 3,562.37 [1] - The SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt was 63,800 tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 544,100 tons [1] Alumina - The alumina CIF price at Lianyungang was 346 US dollars per ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars per ton [1] - The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was -93 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -85, and the price of Baotai ADC12 was 21,000 [1] - The total inventory of the three locations was 49,729 [1] Other - The price of imported bauxite from different sources remained stable, and the price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,630 [1] Other Information - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, alumina is 0, and aluminum alloy is 1 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The futures market of lithium carbonate is in high - level oscillation with light spot trading. While recent inventory reduction supports the futures price, the downstream is reluctant to purchase at 85,000 yuan/ton. With the progress of mine restart, the market may turn from de - stocking to inventory accumulation if consumption weakens, leading to a potential decline in the futures price [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On November 12, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 86,760 yuan/ton and closed at 86,580 yuan/ton, a - 0.21% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,145,329 lots, and the open interest was 528,966 lots, up from 526,493 lots the previous day. The basis was - 4,400 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warrants was 2,8287 lots, an increase of 188 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,400 - 85,200 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 80,600 - 81,600 yuan/ton, also up 1,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,020 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton [2]. - The downstream material factories are cautious, only making rigid - demand purchases. The market trading is mainly post - pricing. Upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term agreements for next year, focusing on coefficients [2]. - The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, with both spodumene and salt - lake production ends having an operating rate of over 60%. The domestic lithium carbonate output in November is expected to be similar to that in October [2]. - In terms of demand, the new - energy vehicle market in the power sector and the energy - storage market are both booming, with supply in the energy - storage market remaining tight [2]. Corporate News - On November 12, Haibo Sichuang announced a ten - year strategic cooperation agreement with CATL from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2035. Haibo Sichuang will purchase battery cells and system products from CATL, and CATL will ensure product quality and provide preferential supply and competitive prices. The cumulative purchase volume from 2026 to 2028 will be no less than 200 GWh [3]. Strategy - Short - term: It is advisable to wait and see, pay attention to inventory and consumption turning points and the restart of mines, and sell hedging at high prices when appropriate. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [4].