Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc. [2][11] - It analyzes the fundamentals, market conditions, and influencing factors of each commodity, and gives corresponding trend strengths. [11][14] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level oscillatory market due to falling oil prices. Suggest to go long on PX and short on PTA, and take long positions in the forward contract at low prices. [8][11] - **PTA**: Suggest to take long positions in the forward contract at low prices. Pay attention to the subsequent polyester inventory situation. [11] - **MEG**: Supply further contracts, and the price continues to be strong unilaterally. [11] Synthetic Rubber - The upward trend is slowing down, and it is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern. [12][14] Asphalt - Follows the crude oil to oscillate repeatedly. [15] LLDPE - In the short - term, it is relatively strong, but in the medium - term, it is under pressure due to factors such as new capacity, weak demand, and falling costs. [32] PP - The price rises slightly, but the trading volume is weak. [35][36] Caustic Soda - Supported by short - term downstream replenishment, the spot price rebounds, but there is still pressure in the later period. [40] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable, and the trading atmosphere is tepid. [45] Methanol - Runs in an oscillatory manner. [48][51] Urea - Oscillates with support, presenting a long - short game pattern. [56][57] Styrene - In the short - term, it oscillates strongly, mainly due to factors such as the release of downstream demand, low port inventory, and unexpected equipment maintenance. [58][59] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little and is expected to run stably in the short - term. [63] LPG - Short - term negative factors are realized, and attention should be paid to the lower support. [65][72] PVC - In the short - term, it oscillates, but there is still pressure in the later period due to high production and inventory. [75][76] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil continues to fall at night, and the short - term weakness continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil experiences a short - term pullback, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market narrows slightly. [80] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Oscillates strongly. Hold the 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads. [82][94] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both are in short - term oscillations. Hold the long PF and short PR positions. [95] Offset Printing Paper - Oscillates weakly due to factors such as a decline in the operating rate and an increase in inventory. [98][100]

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to decline in a volatile manner. The spot market sentiment is divided, with the expectation of strong spot and weak futures. A short - selling strategy can be maintained for futures [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to move sideways. It is recommended to hold a long position in the 9 - 1 spread and maintain a long - only strategy for single - side trading [2]. - Oils are expected to be weak. It is advised to exit short - term long positions [2]. - Eggs are expected to move sideways. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support egg prices in the short term, but the egg prices are likely to be weak later due to the Mei - yu season and increasing supply [2][3]. - Pigs are expected to move sideways. Pig prices will continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: On Thursday, the July corn contract decreased with reduced positions. The domestic average corn price is 2365 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. Northeast prices are stable, North China prices are generally stable, and the prices in the sales areas are rising. Technically, the futures price is in high - level volatility, and a short - selling strategy can be maintained [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans tumbled from a 10 - month high, and soybean oil hit the daily limit down. The U.S. biodiesel policy may be less than expected. The domestic protein meal is strong. It is recommended to hold a long position in the 9 - 1 spread and maintain a long - only strategy for single - side trading [2]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil, Canadian rapeseed, and CBOT soybean oil declined. The domestic oil futures prices are falling, and the basis is expected to continue to decline. It is advised to exit short - term long positions [2]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, the 2506 egg contract declined by 1.23%, and the 2509 contract rose by 0.13%. The spot price is slightly down. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support prices in the short term, but the prices are likely to be weak later [2][3]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the main pig contract closed with a medium - sized阴线, and the September contract continued to move sideways. The Henan market price is down slightly, and pig prices will continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. 3.2 Market Information - In April 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.53 million tons, up 4.2% month - on - month and 9.0% year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 4.2 percentage points year - on - year, and the proportion of soybean meal decreased by 1.3 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 increased by 6.63% - 14.21% compared with the same period last month according to different institutions [4]. - On May 15, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index declined. The average pork price remained the same, and the egg price increased by 1.5% [5]. - The expected biodiesel mandatory blending volume may be 46 - 48 billion gallons, far lower than the previous expectation of 55 - 57.5 billion gallons [2][5]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents charts of 9 - 1 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [7][8][10][13]. - **Contract Basis**: The report presents charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [15][19][22][27].

2025 年 05 月 16 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：继续反弹 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com 安 期 货 研 | 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | --- | | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | 1-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20185 | -90 | 675 | 380 | -150 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20220 | ー | ー | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2499 | -24 | 91 | 130 | -126 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 170538 | 9588 | -97025 | -52590 | 45709 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 200883 | 49079 | 8178 | 71211 | 38745 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 11628 | -6439 | -414 | -10173 | - ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-05-15 市场氛围提振，区域价格上涨 市场分析 1、5月14日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2506合约下午收盘价3521元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨43元/吨，涨幅 1.24%；持仓87087手，环比下降8330手，成交140150手，环比上涨8757手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3700—4086元/吨；山东，3470—3750元/吨；华南，3380—3460元/吨； 华东，3500—3570元/吨。 昨日华北以及山东地区沥青现货价格出现上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。随着宏观情绪好转，原油以及 沥青期货持续上涨，沥青成本端支撑增强，现货市场氛围有所提振。就当前基本面而言，目前库存仍处于低位， 市场短期压力有限。但随着国内部分炼厂利润修复、提高开工率，国内沥青供应边际回升，此外在降水天气影响 下，国内终端需求表现乏力，现货价格推涨力度仍显不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the caustic soda industry, dated May 14, 2025, provided by Ruida Futures [2]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View - In the short - term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 2450 and resistance around 2570. The reduction of Sino - US reciprocal tariff rates to 10% within 90 days is beneficial for non - aluminum terminal exports such as clothing. There is still support from overseas markets like Indonesia. However, the high - cost alumina plants' production cuts and new capacity launches coexist, with limited profit repair and difficult improvement in caustic soda consumption demand. Non - aluminum enterprises' replenishment rhythm is expected to slow down [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2530 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the futures trading volume is 678,133 lots, up 113,667 lots; the futures open interest is 190,125 lots, down 16,636 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 17,734 lots, down 8,248 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2520 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan, and the May contract is 0 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [3]. 2. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 225 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 676 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 50 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 95 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [3]. 4. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina is 2895 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3]. 5. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the United States starting from 12:01 on May 14, 2025. The tariff rate in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff rate on the United States was suspended for 90 days. The tariff measures in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped [3]. - From May 2 - 8, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 0.2% to 83.9% week - on - week. As of May 8, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises decreased by 6.6% week - on - week to 388,400 tons (wet tons), and decreased by 10.72% year - on - year [3]. - As of May 8, the alumina plant production cuts became more widespread, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to a low level. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 1.29% to 79.71% week - on - week, and the dyeing operating rate increased by 0.63% to 60.68% week - on - week [3]. 6. Viewpoint Summary - The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 6.6% to 388,400 tons last week, at a moderately high level in the same period. In May, the shut - down capacity in the chlor - alkali industry increased, alleviating the supply pressure. The alumina high - cost plant production cuts and new capacity launches coexisted, but the profit repair was limited, and the caustic soda consumption demand was difficult to increase. The non - aluminum enterprises' replenishment rhythm is expected to slow down. The Sino - US economic and trade talks are beneficial for non - aluminum terminal exports, and there is still support from overseas markets [3].

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1220 | 1220 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1360 | 1360 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1150 | 1170 | -20 | -1.71% | | | 华南报价 | 1320 | 1320 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1019 | 1047 | -28 | -2.67% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1016 | 1045 | -29 | -2.78% | | | 05基差 | 201 | 173 | 28 | 16.18% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 狱跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单 ...

Q1 来水不佳，湖北现货即将转正 湖北能源(000883) 2024 年报及 25Q1 季报点评 | [table_Authors] 吴杰(分析师) | 胡鸿程(研究助理) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 5.61 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号 S0880525040109 | S0880125042225 | | | 本报告导读： 公司 24 年和 25Q1 业绩分别受到减值和来水不佳影响，湖北现货市场推进，看好公 司电源长期价值释放。 投资要点： 风险提示。来水不及预期、电价下行、新能源盈利性下滑。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 18,669 | 20,031 | 20,045 | 21,655 | 21,980 | | (+/-)% | -9.3% | 7.3% | 0.1% ...

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/5/13 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 870.50 | -19.00↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1447.00 | -24.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 485608.00 | +30759.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 54407.00 | +1128.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the methanol industry, suggesting a volatile market environment with mixed signals from supply and demand dynamics [4]. Core Insights - The core logic of the report highlights increased maintenance of production facilities, a rise in port deliveries, and a growing willingness to replenish stocks among downstream buyers [4][2]. - The report notes that while coal prices are under pressure, the overall supply-demand balance remains loose, with limited upward momentum for prices but also constrained downside potential [1]. - Methanol production capacity utilization is expected to rise in the short term, but planned maintenance and production cuts may lead to a decrease in output in the future [1]. Market Dynamics - Futures market sentiment is positive, leading to smooth transactions in the afternoon with some companies halting sales to support prices, resulting in a general increase in spot prices [1]. - The total futures holdings decreased by 2,007 contracts, indicating a slight reduction in market activity [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The report discusses the impact of maintenance on production facilities, with several key plants undergoing repairs, which may affect overall industry output [1]. - Port inventories have increased by 24,500 tons to 561,900 tons, but the pace of inventory accumulation aligns with expectations, suggesting a potential recovery in market demand [1]. Price Movements - The report provides specific price movements, with the closing price for methanol futures on May 12, 2025, at 2,270 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.93% increase from the previous trading day [5]. - Regional price differences are noted, with Jiangsu's price at 2,422 CNY/ton, a 1.02% increase, while prices in other regions like Inner Mongolia and Henan remained stable [9]. Industry Chain Profits - The report details production profits for various production methods, with Northwest coal-based production showing a profit of 597 CNY/ton, while MTO processes remain in significant losses [13]. - Traditional downstream products like formaldehyde and acetic acid are experiencing varying profit margins, with acetic acid showing a profit of 242.12 CNY/ton [13].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Weak and volatile [1] - Alumina: Consolidating at low levels [1] 2. Core View The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum and alumina, including prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads in the futures market, as well as inventory, production costs, and corporate profitability in the spot market. It also provides the latest market news and trend strength indicators [1][3]. 3. Summary by Catalog Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 19,910 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 186,779 lots, an increase of 71,128 lots. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was $2,470/ton, up $52/ton. The LME注销仓单占比 was 37.69%, down 0.31% [1]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,843 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 859,878 lots, a decrease of 110,097 lots. The position was 272,614 lots, a decrease of 1,213 lots [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 608,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons. The aluminum spot import profit and loss was -1,251.34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49.72 yuan/ton [1]. - **Alumina Spot**: On May 12, 2,000 tons of spot alumina were traded in Shandong at a factory price of 2,910 yuan/ton. Xinjiang's electrolytic aluminum factory tendered for 10,000 tons of spot alumina this week, with a winning bid price of about 3,230 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from last week [1][3]. Market News - On May 12, Shandong traded 2,000 tons of spot alumina at a factory price of 2,910 yuan/ton [1]. - Xinjiang's electrolytic aluminum factory tendered for 10,000 tons of spot alumina this week, with a winning bid price of about 3,230 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from last week [3]. Trend Strength - Aluminum trend strength: 0 - Alumina trend strength: 0 [3]