Core Viewpoint - HTFX suggests that despite the seemingly strong U.S. non-farm payroll data for May, underlying signals indicate potential weaknesses in the labor market, which may lead to a shift in the dollar's performance and prompt the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut cycle sooner than expected [1][6]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The May job additions were reported at 139,000, exceeding the market expectation of 125,000, but previous data has been significantly revised downwards, with March's job additions cut from 224,000 to 120,000, indicating a trend of downward revisions [1][3]. - HTFX anticipates that the May employment increase will likely be revised down to around 100,000 in the future, reflecting a fragile foundation for current employment growth, particularly among small businesses [1][3]. Group 2: Small Business Impact - The ongoing downward revision trend highlights the "inflated" nature of the data and reveals vulnerabilities in employment growth, especially within small enterprises, which are more sensitive to interest rate and cost changes [3]. - The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that the small business hiring sentiment index has fallen to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating a rapid decline in employment expansion momentum [3]. Group 3: Future Employment Projections - Tombs projects that by the end of 2025, employment in key sectors such as transportation, wholesale, and retail may decrease by approximately 50,000 due to the "overdraft effect" from prior cost expectations [4]. Group 4: Dollar and Federal Reserve Outlook - HTFX believes that while the dollar index remains relatively strong, continued weak employment data and easing inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to potentially start a rate cut process as early as September, marking a significant turning point for the forex market [6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming revisions to U.S. employment data, small business confidence indicators, and statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding the labor market, as these factors will directly influence dollar exchange rate fluctuations [6].

Market Performance - A-shares experienced an increase due to positive stimuli, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.52% to 3402.32 points, and the Shenzhen Composite Index increasing by 0.71% [1] - The total trading volume for A-shares was 12,867 billion, a decrease from 14,514 billion the previous day [1] - Most sectors saw gains, particularly rare earths, gaming, energy metals, insurance, automotive parts, securities, trade, non-metallic materials, jewelry, and colored metals [1] Trade Negotiations - The rise in A-shares was primarily linked to progress in US-China trade negotiations, with officials concluding a two-day meeting in London [1] - Chinese and US representatives reported professional and candid discussions, reaching a framework to implement agreements from previous high-level talks [1] - Further details regarding US-China trade negotiations are expected in the coming days, with a likelihood of positive developments [1] External Market Influences - US stock markets continued their recent upward trend, with all three major indices showing slight increases [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was stable around 7.188, while the US dollar remained in a consolidation phase due to various offsetting factors [2] - Market expectations for US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have diminished, now anticipating only one cut for the year [2] Future Market Focus - The A-share market's performance is expected to be influenced by ongoing US-China trade discussions, with reduced uncertainties likely leading to diminished trade-related volatility [2] - Attention may shift towards domestic economic data and potential easing policies, especially following disappointing May import/export and price data [2]

今年前五个月，美元累计下跌8.4%，创下兑一篮子全球货币的有史以来最差"开年表现"。美元后续该如 何走？知名经济学家Robin Brooks详细分析了市场当前正在激烈辩论的三种假设。 在6日10日发表的一篇题为《围绕美元的意志之战》分析文章中，前国际金融协会首席经济学家、现美 国智库布鲁金斯学会高级研究员Robin Brooks认为，针对美元持续走软现象，市场的激烈辩论并非毫无 头绪的口水战，而是围绕着三个核心的"假设"展开： 第一种是最温和的，认为这只是暂时的周期性回调；第二种则比较令人忧虑，担心美联储的 独立性可能动摇；而第三种则是最极端的，认为美元的全球储备货币地位将不保。 Brooks认为，当前围绕美元方向的辩论主要集中在两种假设之间，预测美元仍处于可能持续数十年的多 周期强化进程中。 美元下跌的真实幅度：数据胜过恐慌 许多人对美元近期走势的担忧可能被夸大了。他认为，"多年来，美元首次经历持续下跌"，这种不寻常 的现象引发了各种过度解读和夸大其词的分析。 Brooks通过具体数据为读者厘清了现实情况：自11月5日大选以来，美元兑其他发达经济体货币仅下跌 4%，而兑新兴市场货币篮子基本持平。 Brook ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The ongoing China - US trade negotiations are the focus of the market, and their results will significantly affect the US dollar's trend, investors' risk - aversion sentiment, and thus the gold price. The market is also waiting for the US CPI inflation data on Wednesday to guide the future interest - rate path. Gold prices held steady on Tuesday, trading around $3340 and staying above the key support level of the 20 - day moving average ($3303). Optimistic market sentiment boosted the US dollar and limited gold's upside potential, making it difficult to break through the psychological resistance level of $3350. The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver in the range of [32, 35] [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Key Information - The China - US trade talks in London are progressing well and are expected to last until Tuesday [2]. - California officials accused President Trump of intensifying the tense situation in Los Angeles by deploying the National Guard, while the White House thought the violent demonstrations justified increased efforts to deport illegal immigrants [2]. - China's Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU until December 16, 2025 [2]. Price Logic - The ongoing China - US trade negotiations are the main focus. The US Commerce Secretary said the talks were "going well", and the economic advisor hinted at the lifting of the ban on rare - earth exports. Gold prices rose slightly on Tuesday, with market optimism boosting the US dollar and limiting gold's upside [3]. - China's May exports to the US dropped by 35% compared to the same period last year, the largest decline since the pandemic, highlighting the changing trade environment [3]. - The market is closely watching whether the negotiation progress can ease tensions and promote global economic growth and is waiting for the US CPI inflation data on Wednesday to guide the future interest - rate path [3].

Market Overview - The market is characterized by a constant tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, with fluctuations in price movements being common. The focus should be on preserving capital and developing strategies to respond to market changes [1] Gold Market Insights - Despite optimistic expectations regarding the US-China trade agreement, gold prices opened strong on June 9, 2023. Increased risk appetite has led to a rebound in the stock market, reducing the demand for gold as a safe haven, which has prevented gold prices from reaching new highs since peaking at $3,500 in April [1] - The upcoming high-level trade talks between the US and China, along with previous positive communications between leaders, may sustain market optimism, putting pressure on gold's short-term outlook. Additionally, a strong US employment report could bolster the dollar, further suppressing gold prices [1] Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices tested a low of $3,293 before rebounding to $3,338, but closed below the critical resistance level of $3,335, leading to a further decline to $3,301. The current market remains in a weak oscillating pattern, with key support at $3,293 and resistance at $3,338 [2] - The core trading range is identified between $3,338 and $3,293, with a breakdown below $3,293 potentially opening up further declines to $3,245. Conversely, a breakout above $3,340 could lead to a rally towards $3,400 [2] Trading Strategies - For long positions, it is suggested to enter lightly when gold prices retreat to the $3,300-$3,310 range, with a stop-loss set below $3,290 and a target of $3,335-$3,345 [3] - For short positions, if prices rebound to $3,345 and face resistance, a light short position may be considered, with a stop-loss above $3,355 and a target of $3,325 [3] Domestic Gold Market Performance - Domestic gold prices followed international trends, with notable increases observed. The Shanghai gold market reached a high of 781, while accumulated gold peaked at 774 and financing gold at 772. Short-term profits were noted for positions established at 772 for Shanghai gold and 765 for accumulated and financing gold [3] - Although the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, short-term adjustments are still anticipated, with potential buying opportunities expected around the 750 level [3]

| | 20250610申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 幅波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is expected to remain stable against other major currencies in the near term, influenced by recent positive U.S. employment data [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. employment data exceeded expectations, providing a boost to the dollar [1] - There is potential for the dollar to decline if investors reduce exposure to U.S. assets due to uncertainties in trade and budget policies [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - A clearer indication that tariffs are negatively impacting U.S. economic growth may be needed before the dollar weakens again [1] - Uncertainty in U.S. policies is likely to erode confidence in the dollar, leading to further declines [1]

·光大期货：市场对黄金的分歧仍然存在 ·FXStreet：美元走强给黄金施加压力但市场仍关注贸易局势进展 ·Walsh Trading：美股反弹背景下在每盎司3400美元做多黄金不具有吸引力 ·铜冠金源期货表示，虽然美国与其他经济体的关税谈判还存在较大的不确定性，但当前中美经贸关税 有显著缓和，这使得之前助推金价不断创新高的核心因素避险需求减弱，金价步入调整，目前金价依然 处于阶段性调整之中。但黄金的避险属性和财富保值得到进一步强化，将限制金银价格回调的空间。预 计金价将继续维持高位震荡走势。 ·海通期货：弱势美元以及地缘政治因素仍将导致黄金易涨难跌 ·铜冠金源期货：预计金价将继续维持高位震荡走势 【机构分析】 ·海通期货表示，宏观数据方面，美国制造业和服务业PMI均陷入收缩区间，而非农就业和失业率持 稳，表明美国经济虽然正在减速，但暂时并未走向衰退。因此，虽然美元贬值压力难以完全消退，但下 行的速度已明显放缓。此外，6月5日，中美两国元首通话，双边关系边际缓和趋势延续，黄金形成一定 的利空。不过，即便全球贸易战尾部风险弱化，弱势美元以及地缘政治因素仍将导致黄金易涨难跌。 ·Walsh Trading商业对冲 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar will decline to levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic by mid-next year, influenced by interest rate cuts and slowing economic growth [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a significant depreciation of the dollar, reflecting broader economic trends [1] - The anticipated decline is linked to monetary policy adjustments, particularly interest rate reductions [1] - Economic growth slowdown is identified as a contributing factor to the dollar's weakening [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks from "underweight" to "in line with the market" and expressed optimism about Chinese tech stocks due to their strong innovation capabilities [2][3] - The firm prefers Hong Kong stocks over A-shares, citing that a weaker dollar, influenced by Trump’s policies, historically benefits Hong Kong stocks more than A-shares [2][3] - Goldman Sachs indicated that the potential resilience of the RMB supports an overweight stance on Chinese stocks, expecting a moderate improvement in corporate earnings and increased foreign capital inflow [3] Group 2 - Economist Hong Hao predicted a continued weakening of the dollar, suggesting that it will no longer be viewed as a safe-haven asset, leading to increased capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks [4][5] - Hong noted a significant rise in the base currency balance of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and a dramatic drop in the overnight Hibor rate from 4 to around 0, indicating strong liquidity in the market [5] - Cambridge Associates reported that global investors are reassessing their US-centric portfolios and are increasingly interested in undervalued stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China [5][6] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is benefiting from favorable monetary conditions, increased southbound capital flows, and a rise in IPO activities, with 26 new listings raising a total of HKD 77.2 billion (approximately USD 9.9 billion) [6] - The Hang Seng Index has risen approximately 15.9% year-to-date, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of about 10.5 times expected earnings, compared to 22.5 times for the S&P 500 [6]