国债期货日报 2025年6月25日 跷跷板回归 1.国泰君安国际港交所公告称，本公告旨在让公司股东及潜在投资者知悉本公司的最新业务发展。公司谨此公 告，于2025年6月24日，公司之全资附属公司国泰君安证券（香港）有限公司正式获香港证券及期货事务监 察委员会(「证监会」)批准，将现有第1类（证券交易）受规管活动的牌照升级为透过在证监会持牌平台上开 立综合账户的安排下，提供虚拟资产交易服务。 行情研判： 债市依旧没有什么实际利空，但确实受到股债跷跷板的影响。长端跌幅相对更多，中短端坚挺表明流动性的 利好依然在。操作上，目前边走边看，依旧坚持逢低加仓的观点。 | 数据一览 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-24 | 今日涨跌 | 上周同期 | | 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-24 | 今日涨跌 | 上周同期 | | TS2509 | 102.506 | 102.5 | 0.006 | 102.538 | TS合约持仓(手） ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed resilience despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, with over 80% of stocks rising and nearly 90% of equity ETFs also increasing, except for the food and beverage sector which saw a decline of over 0.5% [1][4] - The relationship between the Hang Seng Index and Brent crude oil prices was inverse, indicating that a drop in oil prices contributed to the rise in stock indices, reflecting limited risk aversion among investors [3][4] - The semiconductor sector experienced a significant uptick due to news from the US about the potential cancellation of export exemptions for chip manufacturing equipment, which is expected to benefit domestic alternatives in China [5][8] Group 2 - The first wave of market rebound was driven by the semiconductor sector, particularly the semiconductor equipment ETF, which surged following the announcement of the US's plan to revoke exemptions for certain companies [8][10] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of nearly 8 billion, marking the highest net purchase since June, which contributed to the overall market rebound, particularly in the Hong Kong market [12][16] - The overall market sentiment was buoyed by the performance of the semiconductor sector, while related markets in South Korea and Taiwan faced declines due to the negative implications of the US policy change [10][15]

避险情绪升温，关注震荡格局是否打破 摘 要： 随着中东局势不确定性的持续上升，全球避险情绪升温，关税 领域，部分加增关税落地，全球经济下行压力持续增加，风险资产 承压，不断升级的避险情绪是否带来国债中期震荡区间的突破，需 要持续观察。目前还未看到除了避险情绪之外的动力，需要关注国 内政策取向情况。 5 月份，5 月末，M2 同比增长 7.9%，预期 8.1%，前值 8%。M1 同比增长 2.3%，，预期 1.7%，前值 1.5%。M2 与 M1 的剪刀差为 5.6 个百分点，较上月有所收窄。中国社会融资规模增量累计为 18.63 万亿元，比上年同期多 3.83 万亿元。其中，5 月新增社融 2.29 万 亿元，上一年同期为 2.07 万亿元。规模以上工业增加值同比实际 增长 5.8%。从环比看，5 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.61%。5 月份，社会消费品零售总额 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%。 5 月份，我国制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点。非 制造业 PMI 为 50.3%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。综合 PMI 为 50.4%， 比上月上升 0.2 个百 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of consistency between entry and exit strategies in trading, emphasizing that short-term trades should not be prolonged into long-term investments [1] - It highlights the recent market conditions, noting a decrease in long-term bond yields and a shift in the funding environment, with the central bank conducting a 2025 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation [1][2] - The article mentions the geopolitical tensions, specifically Israel's attack on Iran, which has led to a decline in stock markets and fluctuations in oil and gold prices [3] Group 2 - The funding rates in the interbank market show a mixed trend, with R001 at 1.46% and R007 at 1.58%, indicating a slight increase in the latter [2] - The central bank's actions, including a net injection of 2000 billion yuan through reverse repos in June, reflect a proactive approach to manage liquidity in the market [3] - The article notes the overall weak financial data released, which aligns with the central bank's recent monetary policy measures [3][4]

除了入场与出场时的理由要相互一致外，入场时，对于时间的要求，也要以始为终。入场时，只是想做 个短线，那出场时，就不能拖太久，不要短线做成长线，长线做成股东。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250613— 世界最近太乱了（+中东局势升级+股市下跌-上午资金面收敛+金融数据偏弱+央行 4000亿买断式逆回购=微下)】 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.06.13) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 (亿 | 变化量 | 成义童占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | 元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.46 | | VV | 1.74 | -30 | 70663. 67 | -2608. 13 | 89. 89 | | R007 | 1.58 | 10 | | 2.05 | 0 | 7431. 20 | -1142.96 | 9.45 | | R014 ...

Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not improved significantly, and the upside of the futures market is limited [1]. - Gold may experience a short - term correction, with a mid - term high - level oscillation pattern, and the divergence between gold and silver may occur [1]. - Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 2250 level [3]. - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 1190 level [4]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term under the current tight - balance supply - demand situation [5]. - The short - term supply - demand pattern of live pigs is supply - strong and demand - weak, and 09 - 01 contract reverse spread and hedging sales are recommended [6]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [6]. - Domestic soybeans are expected to maintain a slightly oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term [7]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate widely with a slightly bullish trend in the medium term [7]. - Silver may face short - term correction pressure and then oscillate with a slightly bullish trend [8]. - PVC is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 4750 level for the 09 contract [8]. - Crude oil prices are supported in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - Rubber is expected to oscillate at a relatively low level in the short term [10]. - PTA supply - demand is turning weaker, and it is recommended to wait and see for the right time when crude oil weakens [11]. 3. Summaries by Product Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 75.36% (- 0.30%), coke daily output is 66.52 (- 0.27), coke inventory is 127.01 (+ 15.63), coking coal inventory is 818.92 (- 27.41), and coking coal available days are 9.3 (- 0.27 days) [1]. - Coking enterprises are in a state of small profit or slight loss, and the market has started the third round of price cuts [1]. Gold - Fed official's remarks reduce the expectation of Fed rate cuts, the US dollar index rebounds, and gold experiences a short - term correction [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2315 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), port inventory is 58.1 tons (+ 5.8 tons), production enterprise inventory is 37.05 tons (+ 1.55 tons), and orders to be delivered are 26.22 tons (+ 1.23 tons) [3]. - Methanol operating rate is 88.14% (+ 0.88%), and downstream capacity utilization is 72.96% (+ 1.83%) [3]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1375 yuan/ton (+ 3 yuan/ton), weekly output is 70.41 tons (+ 2.77%), and manufacturer inventory is 162.7 tons (+ 0.17%) [4]. - Float glass operating rate is 75.68% (- 0.34%), average price is 1206 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton), and inventory is 6975.4 million heavy - boxes (+ 3.09%) [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 14400.31 tons (- 69.27 tons), and daily port clearance volume is 329.06 tons (- 9.72 tons) [5]. - Overseas supply growth is lower than expected, and some mines may increase shipments at the end of the fiscal or quarterly period [5]. Live Pigs - As of June 6, the average slaughter weight is 124.12 kg (- 0.01 kg), and the weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.01% (- 0.76%) [6]. - The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is 39.5 yuan/head (+ 3.39 yuan/head), and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 94.98 yuan/head (+ 3.21 yuan/head) [6]. Palm Oil - From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.09% [6]. - The domestic price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is more inverted, and the spot basis is stable with a downward trend [6]. Soybeans - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean sales volume has reached 64% of the expected output, and for the next year, producers have pre - sold 10.8% of the expected output [7]. - Domestic soybeans are affected by tight supply and weak demand, with a slightly oscillating and strengthening trend [7]. Treasury Bonds - From January to April, the added value of industrial SMEs above designated size increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the operating income reached 25.8 trillion yuan [7]. - The bond market may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Silver - In May, the non - farm payrolls increased by 13.9 million, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [8]. - The short - term bullish sentiment for silver has weakened [8]. PVC - The capacity utilization rate is 80.72% (+ 2.53%), and social inventory is 58.88 tons (- 1.48%) [8]. - The average gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC producers is - 426 yuan/ton (+ 121 yuan/ton), and that of ethylene - based producers is - 520 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [8]. Crude Oil - As of June 6, the number of US oil drilling platforms decreased by 19 to 442 [9]. - Geopolitical factors and low inventory support oil prices in the short term [9]. Rubber - Supply is expected to increase, and demand shows no signs of improvement [10]. - Rubber has experienced three consecutive rounds of inventory reduction [10]. PTA - PX CFR is reported at 825 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N spread is 262 US dollars/ton [11]. - The PTA industry load is rising, and polyester inventory remains high [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how market fluctuations are driven by various "expectations," with major expectations leading to trend-driven markets and minor expectations influencing trading activities [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. International Trade Court has halted the implementation of Trump's tariffs, resulting in a rally in overseas risk assets and a strong performance in the stock market [2]. - The bond market showed cautious sentiment, with the 10-year government bond yield opening slightly higher at 1.6875% and peaking at 1.698% before retreating [2]. - The funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 266 billion yuan, leading to a net injection of 111.5 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - There is a noted easing in fund redemptions, which contributed to a decline in interest rates towards the end of the trading day [2]. - The article mentions a humorous inquiry from institutions questioning the bond market's reaction despite the liquidity measures, suggesting a disconnect between market expectations and actual performance [2]. - High-profile analysts, such as Goldman Sachs, indicate that Trump may still have options to appeal the court's decision, which could lead to further volatility in the markets [2].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic policies since 2025 have been coordinated to promote high-quality development, leading to a positive economic outlook. The central bank's recent actions, including interest rate cuts and targeted reductions for small and innovative enterprises, signify the start of a monetary easing phase aimed at countering external economic pressures and boosting domestic demand [1] - The recent reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S. has restored market conditions to pre-tariff levels, which is expected to enhance investor risk appetite [1] - The secondary bond funds have gained popularity among investors seeking stable returns, with the launch of the Guolian Stable Gain Bond Fund on May 19, which aims for absolute returns with low volatility through rigorous risk control and proactive asset allocation [1] Group 2 - The issuance of secondary bond funds has surged, with an average fundraising scale of 2.064 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.6% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 13.59% [2] - Historical data shows that the secondary bond fund index has increased by 392.88% since inception, with an annualized return of 7.99%, outperforming major indices like the CSI 300 and other bond fund categories [2] - The secondary bond fund index has a significantly lower annualized volatility compared to the CSI 300, demonstrating its effectiveness as a stabilizing asset during market fluctuations [2][4] Group 3 - The Guolian Stable Gain Bond Fund is designed to focus on absolute returns while controlling drawdowns, catering to investors' needs for both stability and potential yield [5] - The fund will be managed by experienced professionals, including Zheng Ling, who has a strong track record in equity investment, and Han Zhengyu, who specializes in fixed income [6][8] - Zheng Ling emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable investment portfolio and aims to build positions during market corrections to mitigate risks associated with high entry points [7]

2025 年 05 月 14 日 国债期货：股债跷跷板显著，曲线走平长端收 红 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 林致远 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021471 | linzhiyuan@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 5 月 13 日，国债期货收盘多数收涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.13%，10 年期主力合约涨 0.03%，5 年期 主力合约跌 0.01%，2 年期主力合约涨 0.03%。 国债期货指数为-0.08。量价因子看多，基本面因子看多。无杠杆下，策略近 20 日累加收益为 0.09%，近 60 日累加收益为-0.82%，近 120 日累加收益为 0.28%，近 240 日累加收益为 1.27%。 权益市场方面，A 股市场全天呈现高开低走的态势，三大指数涨跌不一。南财金融终端显示，截至收 盘，沪指涨 0.17%，深成指跌 0.13%，创业板指跌 0.12%。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少， 全市场超 3200 只个股下跌。 资金方面，隔夜 shibor 报 1.4220%，较前一交易日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to remain in a mid - term shock pattern, with the stock - bond seesaw being an important influencing factor. The increase in bond supply will be a mid - term negative for the bond market, and the bond market may return to the economic fundamentals and policy trading logic later [2][30]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - After the May Day holiday, the expected reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut were implemented, and the Sino - US trade tariff negotiation made progress, which repaired market risk appetite. The rise of the stock market pressured the bond market, and the supply of ultra - long - term treasury bonds still affected the bond market, which remained in a shock state [9]. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - In April, China's CPI turned from a 0.4% decline in the previous month to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, and decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Core CPI rose by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year. PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [15]. - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI and composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range [15]. - During the "May Day" holiday, the national consumer market was prosperous. The sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The subsidy applications for car trade - ins exceeded 60,000, driving new car sales of 8.8 billion yuan. Consumers bought 3.56 million units of 12 major categories of household appliances, driving sales of 11.9 billion yuan, and 2.42 million pieces of digital products such as mobile phones, driving sales of 6.4 billion yuan [16]. - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland from May 10th to 11th, achieving important consensus and substantial progress [16]. - From January to March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 1.50936 trillion yuan, turning from a 3.3% year - on - year decline in the previous year to a 0.8% increase. In March, the profit turned from a 0.3% decline in January - February to a 2.6% increase. Nearly 60% of industries saw profit growth, and the manufacturing industry improved significantly, with a 7.6% profit growth in the first quarter, accelerating by 2.8 percentage points [16]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - After the Two Sessions, various measures to promote consumption were implemented. Although there was no large - scale stimulus policy, detailed policies for the real economy and industrial chain were continuously introduced. The economic data showed a mixed picture, with the consumer market being active during the "May Day" holiday, but the manufacturing PMI declining in April [17]. 3.2 Policy Aspects - In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. At the end of March, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan in the first quarter. Most money market interest rates declined [20]. 3.3 Capital Aspects - Although the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate and policy interest rate did not change significantly, bond market interest rates and DR007 decreased significantly, indicating a certain degree of loose capital. There was still an expectation of further monetary easing, which would support the bond market. However, due to the partial implementation of monetary easing, the probability of significant monetary easing in the near term was low, and the bond market was still influenced by the stock - bond seesaw logic [21]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspects - The government debt combination in 2025 included a 4% deficit ratio, 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, 500 billion yuan of special treasury bonds to replenish bank capital, 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds, and 2 trillion yuan of replacement bonds, with the broad deficit ratio reaching 9.8%, a significant increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year. As of March 3rd this year, about 2.1 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued, with the issuance significantly accelerating compared to the same period of the previous year [24]. 3.5 Sentiment Aspects - The stock - bond ratio was still at a relatively high level although it had declined from the historical high, indicating that the cost - performance of allocating to the bond market was low. Institutions were more likely to focus on stock market opportunities. The bond market was in a wide - range shock, and its short - term trend was greatly affected by the stock market, but it might return to the economic fundamentals later [27]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the Politburo meeting in April, the bond supply may increase, which is a mid - term negative for the bond market. The bond market will return to the economic fundamentals and policy trading logic, and the stock - bond seesaw will still be an important influencing factor. The bond market may remain in a shock pattern in the mid - term, and investors should pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw [30].