商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 23 日 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2507 | 7,387 | 7,300 | 87 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2508 | 7,505 | 7,492 | 13 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,481 | 7,423 | 58 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB07-EB08 | -118 | -192 | 74 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB08-EB09 | 24 | 69 | -45 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 【趋势强度】 苯乙烯：强情绪之下的空配 期 ...

2025 年 07 月 23 日 对二甲苯：供需仍偏紧，滚动正套 PTA：聚酯产销放量，原料趋势偏强 MEG：单边趋势偏强，月差反套 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com PX：尾盘石脑油价格继续走弱，8 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 569 美元/吨 CFR。今天 PX 价格偏强维持，尾 盘实货 9 月在 843/848 商谈，10 月在 834/841 商谈，9/10 换月在平水有买盘，均无成交。今日 PX 估价在 843 美元/吨，较昨日上涨 1 美元。 据市场参与者称，7 月 22 日亚洲 PX 现货市场的交易活动清淡，卖家和买家基本上保持观望。 关于中国推动逐步淘汰老化石化产能的讨论打压了市场情绪，市场参与者正在评估 PX 供应的潜在减 少是否会被下游需求下降所抵消，甚至超过。 "如果淘汰老化的 PTA 和聚酯工厂，[对 PX] 的需求可能会减少，"一位中国生产商说，并指出这可能意 味着对 PX 的需求降低。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Paper pulp: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Apple: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Sugar: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Logs: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - 20 - rubber: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Natural rubber: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Butadiene rubber: Bullish and the trend is emerging (Two stars represent a clear rising trend and the market is fermenting) [1] Core Views - The overall commodity market is strong. The domestic anti - involution policy promotes commodity price increases. Different soft commodities show different trends and investment suggestions are mainly temporary observation or short - term operations [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Category Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today due to the strong commodity market and domestic policies. The 9 - 1 spread decreased. Cotton inventory depletion slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. Downstream cotton procurement is still cautious, and there is a strong expectation of increased production in the new season. The pure - cotton yarn market has average trading volume and strong prices. Macroscopically, pay attention to the details of Sino - US trade agreements. Suggest temporary observation or intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices declined. In Brazil, heavy rainfall in the second half of June affected the sugar - cane harvest, and the sugar - cane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. As the overall harvest progress is slow this year, the sugar - cane crushing volume and sugar production have decreased significantly year - on - year. In July, rainfall in the main production areas decreased. In China, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year; imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 103,500 tons year - on - year. Although Guangxi has increased production this year, due to the fast sales rhythm, inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. However, the US sugar trend is downward, and the upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate in the short term. Suggest temporary observation [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Early - maturing apples are on the market, cold - storage merchants are more willing to sell, and cold - storage apple prices are falling. There are many seasonal fruits with low prices, and the hot weather has led to low apple demand. However, the remaining inventory is not large, and the inventory pressure is not significant. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. Last week, the cold - storage apple destocking volume was 90,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.8%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the western production areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on production is small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the production estimate. Suggest temporary observation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, MR, and BR all rose. The futures market sentiment is optimistic, and the domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continue to rise. The Asian price of the butadiene tower outlet is stable, while the European price is stable with a slight decline. The price of the Thai raw material market continues to rise. Globally, natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. Typhoon "Weipa" has entered northern Vietnam, bringing heavy rain to some areas in Southeast Asia. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded. Jinzhou Petrochemical, Heze Kexin, and Yanshan Petrochemical restarted, and Yihua Rubber and Plastics plans to restart this week. Dushanzi Petrochemical reduced its load, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to decline. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tire plants continued to rise slightly, and the operating rate of semi - steel tire plants continued to rise significantly. Tire manufacturers that had stopped production for maintenance have fully resumed normal production, and tire inventory has increased. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, as counted by Longzhong, dropped to 634,600 tons, and both bonded - area and general - trade inventories decreased. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber, as counted by Zhuochuang, dropped to 12,600 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene dropped significantly to 20,000 tons. Overall, downstream demand has improved, rubber supply has increased, rubber inventory has decreased, market sentiment is positive, and there are potential policy benefits. The strategy is to expect a rebound [6] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5,900 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price of Russian softwood pulp in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Star was 4,100 yuan/ton, remaining stable. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China was 2.181 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous period. In June, China's pulp imports were still relatively high year - on - year. In June, China imported 3.031 million tons of pulp, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 18.578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, pulp demand is still weak, downstream buyers tend to bargain, and demand is in the traditional off - season. Pulp valuation is low. Last Friday, China introduced more anti - involution policies, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, focusing on adjusting the structure, optimizing supply, and eliminating backward production capacity. Suggest temporary observation or light - position buying on dips [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of logs from 13 national ports was 62,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 cubic meters, an increase of 6.12%. Last week, the average daily outbound volume of ports rebounded to 60,000 cubic meters. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume of ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound volume is good. As of July 18, the total national port log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous period. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.64 million cubic meters. The overall national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs will remain low, and there is some positive news on the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the power for price rebound is insufficient. Suggest temporary observation [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash remains abundant, and demand is hovering at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying put options for the soda ash main contract. For glass, it is advisable to temporarily observe the market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1,375 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1,249 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main contract position: 1,074,637 lots, down 177,945 lots; glass main contract position: 1,044,115 lots, down 182,849 lots [2]. - Soda ash 9 - January contract spread: -59 yuan, unchanged; glass 9 - January contract spread: -93 yuan, down 12 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis: -95 yuan/ton, unchanged; glass basis: -113 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1,280 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1,150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Central China light soda ash: 1,195 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass sheets: 1,136 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; Central China glass sheets: 1,130 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.1%, up 2.78 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, down 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.78 million tons/year, down 0.06 million tons; glass in - production line number: 223, down 1 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 1.8842 million tons, down 21,400 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 64.939 million weight boxes, down 2.163 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area: 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; cumulative real estate completion area: 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Multiple events are reported, including potential Sino - US summit, release of housing rental regulations, EU - China leaders' meeting, and various policy announcements in different fields [2]. Macro - level and Market Analysis - The coal price is affected by the coal production verification notice. The domestic soda ash operating rate has increased, but the subsequent production is expected to decline. The glass production line has one cold - repair, with overall production unchanged. The photovoltaic glass continues to decline [2]. - The soda ash inventory is expected to continue to accumulate due to insufficient demand. The glass market is mainly trading on expectations, and the basis remains in a normal range [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Currently, the supply is tight and the new crop faces high - temperature weather, which provides positive support. The short - term trend is upward. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips, and continuous attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 35,399 lots, down 4,976 lots; main contract open interest for cotton is 554,167 lots, down 5,311 lots; cotton warehouse receipts are 9,436 lots, down 65 lots; China Cotton Price Index CCIndex 3128B is 15,549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,430 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 265 lots, down 151 lots; main contract open interest for cotton yarn is 15,117 lots, down 2,106 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 96 lots, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index FCIndexM with 1% tariff is 13,693 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan; with sliding - scale duty is 14,414 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan. The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 22,103 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s is 23,979 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,191 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons [2] 产业情况 - Cotton import volume is 30,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 110,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. Imported cotton profit is 1,111 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.8298 million tons, down 628,900 tons [2] 下游情况 - Yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days;坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. Cloth output is 2.779 billion meters, up 109 million meters; yarn output is 2.065 million tons, up 114,000 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.5266714 billion US dollars, up 168.8977 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2048207 billion US dollars, down 58.3566 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 12.54%, up 0.16%; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 12.54%, up 0.17%. Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 8.57%, up 0.4%; 60 - day historical volatility is 9.03%, down 0.13% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton is 57%, up from 54% the previous week and 53% the same period last year. Internationally, due to falling grain prices and rainfall forecasts in production areas, US cotton futures prices have declined [2] 新作方面 - In some parts of Xinjiang, there is high - temperature weather, and cotton is at a high risk of high - temperature heat damage [2][3]

Group 1 - Coking coal futures have surged significantly, reaching a new high for the year [1] - There is speculation about potential investment opportunities in coking coal futures [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 21, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to favorable rainfall in the US Midwest this week alleviating the pressure from previous high - temperatures, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations also pressured the market. The soybean crop's growth pressure is expected to be reduced by the rainfall despite a brief high - temperature period in the mid - week in the US Midwest. The 8 - month 1 - day tariff deadline may intensify negative market sentiment as few countries have reached agreements with the US. As of July 20, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the previous week and market expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE Bean 1 2509 closed at 4199 yuan/ton (+1, +0.02%) during the day session and 4188 yuan/ton (+12, +0.29%) during the night session. DCE Bean Meal 2509 closed at 3069 yuan/ton (+26, +0.85%) during the day session and 3061 yuan/ton (+2, +0.07%) during the night session. CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1026.75 cents/bushel (-8.25, -0.80%), and CBOT Bean Meal 12 closed at 284.9 dollars/short ton (-3.9, -1.35%) [1]. Spot - In Shandong, the spot price of bean meal (43%) was 2920 - 2950 yuan/ton, flat; different basis prices were given for different months. In East China, the price was 2900 - 2930 yuan/ton, up 10 or 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with corresponding basis prices for different months. In South China, the price was 2920 - 2990 yuan/ton, -10 to +10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and Hainan Aosika had specific spot basis prices [1]. Main Industry Data - The trading volume of bean meal was 14.95 million tons per day, and the previous trading volume was 14.31 million tons per day. The inventory data was not available, and the previous inventory was 84.29 million tons per week [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 21, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The main reasons were the expected favorable rainfall in the US Midwest this week to relieve the high - temperature pressure and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of July 20 was 68%, lower than the previous week and market expectations [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of bean meal and bean 1 was 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main contract during the day session on the report day [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the short - term driving force is expected to be weak, and the price will follow cost fluctuations. Factors include stable operation of PTA devices, planned commissioning of the Sanfangxiang device, off - season terminal demand, weak polyester production and sales, and increasing inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA device commissioning and downstream polyester load fluctuations [5]. - For MEG, the price center is expected to be strong in the short term. Although the port inventory in the middle of the month is expected to decline, the arrival of foreign ships will increase moderately in the second half of the month. The supply - demand situation in July - August has turned to a tight balance, better than market expectations. Attention should be paid to the power system recovery in Saudi Arabia [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the given content 2.每日提示 - **PTA**: The futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis declined significantly. The mainstream suppliers offered for sale. The current mainstream spot basis is at 09 + 6. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, with no change compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [5]. - **MEG**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol was firm at a high level, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The intraday commodity market atmosphere was good, and the ethylene glycol futures opened higher and fluctuated. The spot in this week briefly strengthened to a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton over the 09 contract, and the basis weakened significantly near noon. In the afternoon, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range. The mainstream spot negotiation was at a premium of 56 - 63 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The overseas market price center of ethylene glycol strengthened slightly, and recent shipments were mainly negotiated and traded at 520 - 523 US dollars/ton. The inventory in East China is 49.40 tons, an increase of 1.37 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the given content 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, operating rate, output, ethylene glycol consumption, total demand, port inventory, and inventory changes from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. 5.影响因素总结 - **Likely Positive Factors**: There have been frequent unexpected events on the ethylene glycol supply side recently. Several devices in Saudi Arabia have unexpectedly shut down due to power problems, involving a production capacity of about 1.7 million tons. The load of a large - scale ethylene glycol producer in Zhejiang has been continuously decreasing. A 1.25 million - ton/year cracking device in Lianyungang is planned to be overhauled in August, which may postpone the restart of the 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: From the demand side, it is certain that the terminal demand is weakening due to the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand [7]. 6.当前主要逻辑和风险点 - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be noted when the futures price rebounds [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a strategy of shorting the EC2510 contract on rallies and holding the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads. The 2508 contract's performance depends on Maersk's 32 - week freight rates, with limited unilateral trading value. The 2510 contract, in the traditional off - season, should be shorted on rallies, but the downward trend may not be smooth [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: The EC2508 contract closed at 2,291.9, up 3.26%, with 7,390 in trading volume, 14,037 in open interest, and a decrease of 879 in open interest. The EC2510 contract closed at 1,592.7, down 2.35%, with 69,273 in trading volume, 51,185 in open interest, and a decrease of 186 in open interest. The EC2512 contract closed at 1,742.2, down 3.72%, with 7,755 in trading volume, 8,114 in open interest, and an increase of 60 in open interest [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 21, 2025, the SCFIS European route index was 2,400.50 points, down 0.9%; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,301.81 points, up 2.8%. The SCFI European route index was 2,079 $/TEU, down 1.0%; the SCFI US - West route index was 2,142 $/FEU, down 2.4% [1]. 2. Spot Freight Rates - **Gemini Alliance**: Maersk's 31 - week Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price was 3,070 $/FEU (up 70 $/FEU from the previous period), and the latest price was 3,170 $/FEU. Hapag - Lloyd's FAK in late July was around 3,300 $/FEU [8]. - **OA Alliance**: The FAK in late July was around 3,500 $/FEU on average. Evergreen's online e - commerce platform quoted 3,760 $/FEU in August, up 100 - 200 $/FEU from early July [8]. - **PA Alliance**: ONE and HMM's rates in late July remained the same, Yangming's decreased by 100, with an average of around 3,300 $/FEU. ONE's offline price in early August remained the same, and the online e - commerce platform increased by 300 $/FEU [8]. - **MSC**: The FAK in early August increased by 200 to 3,640 $/FEU, the same as in early July [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **Cargo Volume**: Benefiting from strong FOB cargo volume, shipping companies' loading conditions at the end of July were optimistic, and the cargo volume in early August was still supported. On a monthly basis, August is likely to see an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is unclear [8]. 4. Contract Analysis - **2508 Contract**: Its performance depends on Maersk's 32 - week freight rates. In the neutral scenario, the 08 contract's valuation is around 2,050 - 2,100 points, and the delivery settlement price may be in the 2,100 - 2,200 points range. In the optimistic scenario, the delivery settlement price may be above 2,250 points. Unilateral trading value is limited [9]. - **2510 Contract**: October is the traditional off - season for the European route. Shipping companies need to suspend voyages to slow down the decline in freight rates. It is recommended to short on rallies, but the downward trend may not be smooth [9].

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 22 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员 ...