Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper first declined and then rose, recovering the overnight high at the end of the session, with an increase in open interest. At the macro - level, the market warmed up, and precious metals and non - ferrous metals strengthened collectively. At the industrial level, as copper prices rose, downstream wait - and - see sentiment resurfaced. Sustainable attention can be paid to the pressure at the 88,000 yuan mark [7]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum maintained a strong upward trend, with continuous increase in open interest. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum stood above the 22,000 yuan mark, breaking through the high in May 2024. At the macro - level, the market may be trading on demand recovery or inflation expectations, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals generally rose. At the industrial level, the spot discounts of both Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum continued to decline, indicating that although inventories are currently low, spot goods are not in short supply. In the short term, aluminum prices broke through the 2024 high, showing strong upward momentum [8]. - **沪镍**: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated, with little change in open interest. Recently, while the non - ferrous sector was running strongly, nickel prices weakened against the trend, largely reflecting the weakness of the fundamentals. At the industrial level, as nickel prices weakened, the spot premium strengthened, providing some support for the futures price. Technically, attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 119,000 yuan mark [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 13th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 198,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from Monday. SMM reported that the weekly operating rate of the enameled wire industry's machines rebounded 0.87 percentage points to 77.2%. Benefiting from the decline of copper prices to around 85,000 yuan/ton last week, the increase in new orders drove up the operating rate [11]. - **Aluminum**: On November 13th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from Monday [11]. - **Nickel**: On November 13th, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2512 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +3,800 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,620 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +650 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,470 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,450 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,270 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,350 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,170 yuan/ton [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The related charts involve aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, SHFE - LME ratio, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum rod inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][37][39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term bullish, short - term with limited driving force, long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged, ★★ [1] - Silver: Bullish, strong support at 12000, long - term hold, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term hold, recommend buying on dips near the moving average, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, short - term narrow - range oscillation, long - term supply increase and demand decrease, short on rebounds, ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound, short - term price rebound, ★ [1] - Tin: Bullish, short - term price spike, ★★ [1] - Aluminum: Bullish, short - term price spike, ★★ [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price relatively weak, ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range - bound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, buy at the lower end of the range, ★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: High - level operation, take profit near the previous high, wait for low - buying opportunities, ★ [1] Core Views - The end of the US government shutdown, weak employment data expectations, and a weaker US dollar lead to a rise in market risk appetite, with precious metals and the non - ferrous sector showing positive sentiment. However, different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1][7][11] - Gold and silver are supported by factors such as potential interest rate cuts and central bank purchases, with long - term strategic investment value [1][4] - Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6][7] - Zinc has short - term supply - demand weakness, with inventory accumulation both at home and abroad, and a long - term trend of supply increase and demand decrease [1][10][11] - Aluminum is affected by overseas production cuts and inventory changes, with short - term price increases [1][14][15] - Nickel has weak terminal demand, with inventory accumulation and a relatively weak price trend [1][18][19] - Lithium carbonate has a tight supply - demand situation, with continuous inventory reduction, but there are also factors that may limit price increases [1][22][23] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data intensifies December interest rate cut predictions, and the market amplifies unexpected data, leading to strong performance of precious metals [2] - **Basic Logic**: The 43 - day US government shutdown is approaching an end, which may reduce Q4 economic growth. There are signs of widespread inflation slowdown, and the housing rental market is weak. China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves. In the long term, gold may benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3][4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, domestic gold has support at 935, and silver has strong support at 12000. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillates upward [5][6] - **Industrial Logic**: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mines decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and the decline is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate is weak year - on - year. Copper has been included in the US key minerals list [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the end of the US government shutdown, the market risk appetite has increased. Copper is expected to be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to buy on dips near the moving average with light positions. Long - term strategic positions should be held. The short - term trading range for Shanghai copper is [85000, 88000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc rebounds after testing the support at 22500 [9][10] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production has declined recently, leading to a short - term tightening of zinc concentrate supply. The processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate has continued to decline. Consumption is entering the off - season, and the galvanizing start - up rate has decreased. The zinc ingot export window has opened, and inventories at home and abroad have accumulated [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the end of the US government shutdown, the market risk appetite has recovered, but zinc demand is weak. It is recommended to take profit on long positions on rebounds. In the long term, short on rebounds. The trading range for Shanghai zinc is [22400, 22800] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [3000, 3100] US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rise and then fall, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12][13] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, the expectation of an end - of - year interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has weakened. There have been production cuts at overseas electrolytic aluminum plants, and it is expected that there will be further cuts in March next year. Domestic aluminum downstream processing start - up rates are decreasing. The alumina market is currently in an oversupply situation, but there may be some support from production cuts by high - cost enterprises [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on Shanghai aluminum positions on short - term rallies. Pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [21000 - 21900] yuan/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices continue to decline, and stainless steel shows a weak trend [16][17] - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of an end - of - year interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has weakened overseas. The inventory of nickel mines at domestic ports has decreased, but global nickel inventory has continued to accumulate. The stainless steel market is approaching the end of the peak season, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118500 - 121000] yuan/ton [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opens slightly higher, rises and then falls, with wide - range oscillations throughout the day [20][21] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand situation remains tight, with continuous inventory reduction for 12 weeks and an expanding reduction amplitude. Domestic production has reached new highs, and imports are expected to increase in November. The terminal market is strong, but there are factors that may limit price increases [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions near the previous high [85000 - 86600] [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For most varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon), the overall sentiment is cautiously bullish, except for iron ore where it is recommended to stop loss on short positions [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: After continuous declines, they are testing cost support. Rebar shows characteristics of weak supply and demand in the off - season, with a weakening of the support for raw materials from molten iron. Hot - rolled coil has a slight inventory pressure, and the demand support for raw materials is also weakening [3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is shrinking, and contradictions are accumulating. The short - term price is firm, with the possibility of an increase in molten iron production in the future, and attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill maintenance [6]. - **Coke**: The expectation of the fourth price increase is strengthening, but coke enterprises are still mostly in a loss state. With the decline in molten iron production and more blast furnace maintenance, there is a certain short - term replenishment demand. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [9]. - **Coking Coal**: The current supply - demand pattern remains intact. Domestic coal mine production has slightly increased, with low inventory levels and sufficient pre - sales orders. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The steel procurement in November has started. For ferromanganese, the supply has slightly decreased but is still at a high level, and the inventory increase has slowed down. For ferrosilicon, the production area's operating rate has increased, and the demand has weakened, with a significant increase in inventory [15]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar** - **Variety View**: Production and apparent demand have both decreased month - on - month, showing a weak supply - demand pattern in the off - season. Inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the decline is weaker than the seasonal pattern. The fundamental situation is generally balanced but on the weaker side. The support for raw materials from molten iron is gradually weakening [4]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: It has fallen to near the previous low, testing the support at 3000, and there may be fluctuations at low levels [5]. - **Hot - rolled Coil** - **Variety View**: Apparent demand and production have both declined, and inventory has increased slightly against the seasonal trend, indicating a certain inventory pressure. The demand support for raw materials from molten iron is weakening [4]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: It operates within a medium - term range, and there may be fluctuations after continuous short - term declines [5]. Iron Ore - **Variety View**: Molten iron production has decreased month - on - month, but there is an expectation of an increase due to the resumption of some blast furnaces. Steel mill maintenance information has increased, and attention should be paid to its implementation. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory. The supply of imported iron ore has decreased, and the static fundamental situation is slightly bullish [6]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Stop loss on short positions [7]. Coke - **Variety View**: The expectation of the fourth price increase is strengthening, and the profit of coke enterprises has slightly improved but is still mostly in a loss state. Molten iron production has declined again, steel mill profits are poor, and there is more blast furnace maintenance. However, the raw material inventory level is moderately low, and the short - term replenishment enthusiasm is okay. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [9]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, and it is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [10]. Coking Coal - **Variety View**: The National Development and Reform Commission has deployed energy supply guarantee work for the heating season. Domestically, coal mine production has slightly increased, with low inventory levels and sufficient pre - sales orders. The overall shipment situation is still good. The current supply - demand pattern has not been broken, and the market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [12]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, and it is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [13]. Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese** - **Variety View**: The supply in the production area has slightly decreased but is still at a high level compared to the same period. Inventory has continued to increase from the previous period, but the increase rate has slowed down. The steel procurement in November has started, and a landmark steel mill plans to purchase 16,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons compared to the previous month. Attention should be paid to the final pricing [15]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: The short - term cost side provides some support for the price, and it is cautiously bullish [16]. - **Ferrosilicon** - **Variety View**: The operating rate in the production area has continued to increase, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase significantly from the previous period [15]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: The short - term cost side provides some support for the price, but the fundamental situation has become looser. It is cautiously bullish [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Market sentiment is bullish, but due to the lack of obvious bullish drivers, it is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions. Technical operations are advised, and attention should be paid to the opportunities of going long on dips. Keep an eye on the USDA report and the soybean planting situation in Brazil [1][3] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Market sentiment is bullish, but the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited due to the current fundamental factors. Focus on the subsequent progress of China - Canada trade [1][6] - **Palm Oil**: It has temporarily stopped falling and is in a consolidation phase. There is still a risk of inventory accumulation, so it is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions. Pay attention to the fluctuations in import profits [1][8] - **Soybean Oil**: It is in a short - term rebound. Due to the lack of strong bullish drivers, it is treated as a rebound for the time being. In stage operations, pay attention to the opportunities of going long on dips. Monitor the progress of US biodiesel and China - US trade [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It has stopped falling and rebounded in the short term. The zero - start of coastal oil mills, zero inventory of rapeseed, and a significant decline in port inventory have driven up the domestic rapeseed oil price [1] - **Cotton**: It is in a short - term adjustment. The international market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, while the domestic market is digesting the supply pressure of the new season. The consumption of cotton - related products may not be overly pessimistic in the future. Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities within the month and the impact of the USDA supply - demand balance sheet on the domestic market [1][12] - **Red Dates**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish, but considering the strong basis and possible production cuts, the downside space may be limited for the time being. Short - selling operations should be carried out at high levels based on the changes in the mainstream purchase price and purchase progress [1][15] - **Live Pigs**: Be vigilant about the rebound. The supply pressure in Q4 remains high. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts, be vigilant about the rebound risk of the 01 contract, and pay attention to the 03 contract. For arbitrage, focus on the reverse - spread opportunities during the downward repair of the far - month premium [1][18] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 3059 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3097.71 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The basis and spreads of different contracts have changed to varying degrees [2] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: As of November 7, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 1033.4 million tons, an increase of 70.5 million tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills is 761.95 million tons, an increase of 7.20%. The soybean meal inventory is 99.86 million tons, a decrease of 13.39%. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises are 7.75 days, a decrease of 3.39% [3] Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 2494 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2588.95 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. The basis and spreads of different contracts have changed [4] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: As of November 7, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 0 million tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 0.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.21 million tons. The international rapeseed production has recovered, and the domestic rapeseed meal is in a de - stocking state, but the demand is in the off - season [6] Palm Oil - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 8744 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day. The national average price is 8755 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. The import cost has increased, and the basis and spreads of different contracts have changed [7] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: As of November 7, 2025, the national key area commercial inventory is 59.73 million tons, an increase of 0.76%. The production in Malaysia in October has increased, and the export data varies. The palm oil is in a state of weakening supply - demand, with a continuous inventory accumulation expectation [8] Cotton - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 13515 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the previous day. The spot price has a slight increase. The basis and spreads of different contracts have changed, and the spinning profit has improved [9] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: The new cotton harvesting in the US, India, Pakistan, and Brazil is in progress. The domestic new cotton harvesting is nearly completed, the cost is basically locked, the inventory has increased, and the demand is showing signs of improvement [10][11] Red Dates - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 9365 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from the previous day. The spot price is relatively stable, the basis has changed, and the profit has decreased [13] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: The Xinjiang main - producing area is in the concentrated harvesting stage, the inventory has increased, and the downstream demand for new products is weak [15] Live Pigs - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 11795 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The spot price has a slight increase, the basis and spreads of different contracts have changed [16] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: The short - term supply pressure is not prominent, the medium - term supply pressure in Q4 is confirmed, and the long - term capacity reduction needs to be further promoted. The demand is gradually stabilizing, and the slaughter and sales volume have increased [17][18]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher on November 12, 2025, with position adjustments by traders ahead of the USDA's supply - demand report, but the price increase was limited due to insufficient Chinese purchases [2][4] - Analysts expect the US soybean yield to be 53.1 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's September 12 estimate of 53.5 bushels per acre [4] - The market is concerned about the change in yield data and China's progress in purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of the year, and China is facing a situation of soybean surplus after months of record - high imports [4] - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day of the report [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2601 had a day - session closing price of 4127 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and a night - session closing price of 4113 yuan/ton; DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - session closing price of 3059 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan, and a night - session closing price of 3052 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; CBOT soybean 01 was at 1134 cents per bushel, up 7.25 cents (+0.64%); CBOT soybean meal 12 was at 322 dollars per short ton, up 5.2 dollars (+1.64%) [2] - **Spot Basis**: In Shandong, the spot basis of soybean meal is M2601 + 10, down 10 to flat compared to the previous day; in East China, it is flat; in South China, the spot basis of Fangchenggang Aojia is M2601 - 30, flat, and that of Hainan Aosika is M2601 + 40, flat [2] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 210,500 tons per day, down from 234,000 tons in the previous period, and the inventory was 963,100 tons per week, down from 1,059,300 tons in the previous period [2] Macro and Industry News - On November 12, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. Traders adjusted positions ahead of the USDA's supply - demand report, but the price increase was limited due to insufficient Chinese purchases [2][4] - Analysts expect the US soybean yield to be 53.1 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's September 12 estimate of 53.5 bushels per acre [4] - The market is concerned about the change in yield data and China's progress in purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of the year. Since the leaders' meeting last month, China has only made small - scale purchases of US agricultural products, and China is facing a situation of soybean surplus [4] Trend Strength - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day of the report [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Sideways at the bottom [4] - Urea: Short on rallies [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [7] Core Views - Crude oil: The oversupply in the off - season remains the core driver, and the upside of oil prices is under pressure. OPEC's latest monthly report predicts an oversupply in 2026, and OPEC+ plans to expand production in December and then pause in early next year. With the start of the consumption off - season and OPEC+ still in the expansion cycle, the pressure of oversupply is rising, and oil prices face significant downward pressure [2]. - LPG: Weak oil prices bring negative impacts to the cost side, and the trend of LPG is weak. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved, the cost - side pressure restricts its upward movement [2]. - L: The decline in oil prices and the restart of devices may cause the market to continue to bottom. The supply is loose, and the demand for replenishing inventory is insufficient, with weak cost support [2]. - PP: The sharp decline in coking coal and the weak cost side lead to a weak fundamental situation. There is high pressure to destock, and oil prices still face the risk of further decline in the medium term [2]. - PVC: The market follows coking coal to find the bottom. Although the inventory is high, the low - valuation support limits the further decline space. The market maintains a high premium, and industries are advised to hedge at high prices [2]. - PX: The supply - side devices have increased their loads, and the demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high, and the crude oil supply - demand pattern is loose. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [2]. - PTA: The processing fee is generally low, and the planned device maintenance may relieve the supply - side pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the rebound height may be limited due to the pressure on crude oil [4]. - Ethylene glycol: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. It has low valuation but lacks upward drivers [4]. - Methanol: High inventory suppresses the rebound of prices. The supply - side pressure is still large, and the demand performance is average. The cost - side support is weak and stable, and the overall fundamentals remain weak [4]. - Urea: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory in factories is accumulating, and under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the market has a ceiling and a floor. It is necessary to be vigilant against the downward risk [4]. - Natural gas: As the temperature drops, the consumption peak season arrives, and the demand has a warming expectation, making gas prices likely to rise and difficult to fall [7]. - Asphalt: The cost - side oil price has回调ed, and the supply - demand fundamentals are loose. The demand has entered the off - season, and the valuation is high. The price center still has room to move down [7]. - Glass: The fundamentals are weak, and the market continues to look for support downward. The supply is unlikely to decline further, and the demand support is insufficient [7]. - Soda ash: The increase in photovoltaic daily melting volume and device maintenance has led to a short - term rebound. However, in the long - term, the supply will remain loose [7]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly. WTI rose 1.43%, Brent rose 1.72%, and SC fell 0.17% [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply in the off - season, and the short - term driver is OPEC's prediction of oversupply in 2026. OPEC predicts an increase of 600,000 barrels per day in non - OPEC production in 2026, and the global demand increments in 2025 and 2026 are 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week ending October 31, US crude oil inventory increased by 5.2 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 4.7 million barrels, distillate inventory decreased by 643,000 barrels, and strategic crude oil reserve increased by 5.924 million barrels per day [10][11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and oil prices are in a low - price range. Technically, although the short - term trend is strong, the upward pressure is increasing. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions. Pay attention to the range of [460 - 475] for SC [12]. LPG - **Market Review**: On November 12, the PG main contract closed at 4,349 yuan/ton, up 0.39% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different changes [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The trend is tied to the cost - side oil price, which is weak. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has shown some resilience. The inventory in ports and factories has declined, and the import profit has increased, with expected higher future imports [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the central price is expected to decline. The current ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, with a low basis and high valuation. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [16]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,788 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The basis and other indicators also had corresponding changes [19]. - **Basic Logic**: The sharp decline in oil prices and the restart of devices may cause the market to continue to bottom. The supply is loose, and the demand for replenishing inventory is insufficient. The oil price still has a downward risk in the medium term, with weak cost support [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the absolute low price, partially reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of [6700 - 6850] for L [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan. The basis and other indicators changed accordingly [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The sharp decline in coking coal leads to a weak fundamental situation. The inventory in the upper and middle reaches is at a high level, and the demand support is insufficient. OPEC+ is still in the production - increasing cycle, and oil prices face the risk of further decline in the medium term [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the absolute low price, short - term decline stops, and short positions can be reduced. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of [6350 - 6500] for PP [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,572 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The basis and other indicators changed [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The market follows coking coal to find the bottom. The basis is strengthening, and the warehouse receipts are decreasing from a high level. In the short - term, during the macro - policy window period, the market returns to weak fundamentals. Although the inventory is high, the low - valuation support limits the further decline space [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintains a high premium. Industries are advised to hedge at high prices. Be cautious when chasing short due to low - valuation support. Pay attention to the range of [4500 - 4650] for V [28]. PX - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices at home and abroad have increased their loads. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are at relatively high levels this year. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The crude oil supply - demand pattern is loose, and PX follows the cost in the short term [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious when chasing up on a single - side trade. For arbitrage, pay attention to expanding the downstream processing margin (i.e., go long on PTA and short on PX). Pay attention to the range of [6680 - 6770] for PX [30]. PTA - **Market Review**: The prices of TA contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, showed corresponding changes [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low, and the planned device maintenance may relieve the supply - side pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability needs to be tracked. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. Although the fundamentals have improved in the short term, the upward space is limited due to the pressure on crude oil [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: On a single - side trade, look for opportunities to go long on dips. For arbitrage, pay attention to expanding the TA processing margin (i.e., go long on PTA and short on PX). Pay attention to the range of [4600 - 4670] for TA [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The prices of EG contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, changed [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but it lacks upward drivers and follows the cost in the short term [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is in a low - level oscillation. Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3835 - 3900] for EG [36]. Methanol - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of prices. The supply - side pressure is still large, and the demand performance is average. The cost - side support is weak and stable, and the overall fundamentals remain weak [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is in a weak sideways trend. Hold short positions cautiously at low valuations. For arbitrage, pay attention to the MA1 - 3 reverse spread [4]. Urea - **Market Review**: The prices of urea contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, changed [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory in factories is accumulating, and under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the market has a ceiling and a floor. There are short - term positive factors, but be vigilant against the downward risk [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Although the export boosts market sentiment, the fundamentals remain weak. Be vigilant against the risk of the market falling back after rising. Pay attention to the range of [1620 - 1650] for UR [44]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 12, the NG main contract closed at $4.764 per million British thermal units, up 4.47% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions also changed [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The decline in global temperature leads to an increase in demand for combustion and heating, and the gas price is likely to rise. The domestic LNG retail profit has increased. The supply - side has some changes, and the demand has shown certain characteristics. The US natural gas inventory has increased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the temperature cools down, the demand for combustion and heating increases, and the price is likely to rise. However, due to sufficient supply and recent sharp increases, the upward momentum has weakened, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to the range of [4.415 - 4.581] for NG [49]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 12, the BU main contract closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, up 0.43% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The trend is mainly tied to the cost - side oil price, which is weak. The cost - side support is decreasing. The supply in November is expected to decline, and the demand has also decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises has decreased [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. [51] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak, and the market continues to look for support downward. The supply is unlikely to decline further, and the demand support is insufficient [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, there is support from cold repairs. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the loose pattern is difficult to change. Go short on rebounds [7]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The increase in photovoltaic daily melting volume and device maintenance has led to a short - term rebound. However, in the long - term, the supply will remain loose [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintains a premium structure. Industries are advised to sell and hedge at high prices. Technically, it is bullish in the short term, but go short on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term [7].

Report Overview - Date: November 13, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Limited rebound height, beware of a second dip [2] - Soybean oil: U.S. soybeans have stabilized, continue to widen the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2] - Soybean meal: U.S. soybeans closed higher, may follow a rebound and fluctuate [2] - Soybean: Spot prices are stable, the market fluctuates [2] - Corn: Short - term bullish [2] - Sugar: Pay attention to the crushing situation in India [2] - Cotton: Lack of upward drivers, futures prices declined slightly [2] - Eggs: Maintain a sideways trend [2] - Live pigs: The spread between fat and standard pigs is weakening, the driving force is emerging [2] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the actions of oil mills [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - closing price was 8,744 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change, and night - closing price was 8,664 yuan/ton with a - 0.91% change. Soybean oil's daily - closing price was 8,288 yuan/ton with a 0.61% change, and night - closing price was 8,260 yuan/ton with a - 0.34% change [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's 2025 palm oil production is expected to exceed 20 million tons, up 3.4% from last year. November production may drop 9% to 1.86 million tons, and December may drop 11% to 1.66 million tons. SGS estimated Malaysia's November 1 - 10 palm oil exports at 190,533 tons, a 49.53% decrease from the previous month [5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil: - 1; Soybean oil: 0 [10] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean No.1 2601's daily - closing price was 4,127 yuan/ton with a - 0.02% change, and night - closing price was 4,113 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change. DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - closing price was 3,059 yuan/ton with a + 0.03% change, and night - closing price was 3,052 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% change [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On November 12, CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher due to position adjustments before the USDA's supply - demand report. Analysts expect U.S. soybean export sales to net increase by 45 - 160 million tons for the week ending November 6 [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal: + 1; Soybean: 0 [13] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The Northeast purchase average price was not available, the Jinzhou closing price was 2,160 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the Guangdong Shekou price was 2,310 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan). C2601's daily - closing price was 2,177 yuan/ton with a 0.05% change, and night - closing price was 2,179 yuan/ton with a 0.09% change [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou prices also increased [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [18] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.57 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,760 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,478 yuan/ton [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The 25/26 Indian sugar export quota is 1.5 million tons. Brazil's October sugar production increased by 1% year - on - year, and exports increased by 13% [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [23] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's daily - closing price was 13,515 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change, and night - closing price was 13,475 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change. ICE cotton 3 was 64.82 cents/pound with a - 0.93% change [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was good, but the cotton yarn market was sluggish. ICE cotton futures continued to fall, affected by crude oil and awaiting the USDA report [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [29] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2512's closing price was 3,063 yuan/500 kg with a - 3.25 change, and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,543 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.92 change [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [31] Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 11,500 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12,560 yuan/ton. Live pig 2601's price was 11,795 yuan/ton [33]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The September national feed production was 30.36 million tons, a 3.4% month - on - month increase and a 5% year - on - year increase [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [35] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The Liaoning 308 general - grade price was 8,900 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan), and the Henan Baisha general - grade price was 7,000 yuan/ton. PK601's closing price was 7,914 yuan/ton with a 0.61% change [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In some peanut - producing areas, the supply was low, and prices were stable or strong. The Kaifeng Yihai Kerry contract price for general - grade peanuts was 8,050 yuan/ton [38][39]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [41]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market's fundamentals have not improved, and the ore price is under pressure. The short - term view of iron ore 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and weakening. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA10 line [1]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Under the influence of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market are not alleviated. The weak demand pattern is difficult to change, which will still suppress the ore price. Although the arrival of ore at domestic ports and the shipments of overseas miners have decreased month - on - month, they are still at relatively high levels within the year, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. The ore supply remains high. Arbitrage funds leaving the market drive the ore price to rise from a low level, but the demand for ore is weakening while the supply remains high, so the ore price is still prone to decline under pressure [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2601, the short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and weakening. The suggestion is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals have not improved and the ore price is under pressure [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of iron ore is deteriorating. Terminal ore consumption is decreasing due to production restrictions, and the steel market's industrial contradictions persist. The weak demand will continue to limit the ore price. Although the arrival of ore at domestic ports and overseas shipments have decreased, they are still at relatively high levels. Domestic ore production is weakly stable, and the supply remains high. The departure of arbitrage funds has led to a low - level rebound in the ore price, but with weakening demand and high supply, the ore price is likely to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The upward movement of SCFIS has boosted the sentiment of long - position holders, and the futures market is in a state of oscillating operation under the game between long and short positions. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and the focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. Tariff issues have a marginal effect, and close attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight prices [1][3]. - With the sharp rise of the spot index driving the far - month contracts, risk - preferring investors are advised to enter the 02 contract in advance and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1]. Content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Freight Index Information - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3]. Futures Market Information - On November 11, the main contract 2512 closed at 1746.1, down 1.87%, with a trading volume of 32,200 lots and an open interest of 25,200 lots, a decrease of 1475 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: As the main contract retreats and the far - month contracts are strong, risk - preferring investors are advised to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4].

1. Core Views - Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper oscillated around 86,700 yuan. The weak US dollar recently is favorable for copper prices. The main contract twice failed to break through the 87,000 yuan mark, showing some pressure. Monitor the multi - short game at this level [7]. - Shanghai Aluminum increased in volume and price, especially in the afternoon. The main contract broke through the November 2024 high and approached 22,000 yuan. Despite the strong price, the spot discounts of both Shanghai and LME Aluminum continued to decline, indicating that although inventory is low, the spot is not in short supply. The short - term rise may be due to low valuation and expected supply reduction and demand increase overseas. Pay attention to the support at the 5 - day moving average [8]. - Shanghai Nickel decreased in volume and price, with the main contract breaking below 119,000 yuan. Amid the strong performance of the non - ferrous sector, the weak nickel price reflects its fundamental weakness. Technically, watch the support at the June low [9]. 2. Industry Dynamics - Citi predicts that the average copper price will reach $12,000 per ton by the second quarter of 2026, with an optimistic estimate of $14,000 per ton [11]. - On November 10, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 616,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [12]. - On November 12, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 118,400 - 122,500 yuan per ton, with an average price of 120,450 yuan per ton, a decrease of 850 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 3,700 yuan per ton, an increase of 100 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The premium range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 to 300 yuan per ton [13]. 3. Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, and month - to - month spread [14][15][16]. Aluminum - The report presents charts of aluminum basis, month - to - month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - The report shows charts of nickel basis, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, month - to - month spread, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][43].