Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, there is capital game in the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, and are disturbed by news about Indonesian nickel mines [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 128,000, and the closing price of stainless - steel main contract is 13,075. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 1,095,331, and that of stainless - steel main contract is 365,097 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 127,200, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 893, and the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,050 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesian Nickel Mine News**: Due to violation of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month. The Indonesian energy and mineral resources department imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The government plans to revise the benchmark price formula of nickel ore products in early 2026 and may lower the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [2][3][4][5][6]. - **International Trade News**: China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imported from Russia. The US President Trump may impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software". China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products from January 1st, 2026 [3][4][5]. - **Monetary Policy News**: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and that of stainless steel is +1, indicating a moderately positive outlook for both [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The report focuses on the pig industry, presenting fundamental data, market information, and trend strength, indicating that the speculative demand for pigs has been realized [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 11,780 yuan/ton, up 50 year - on - year; Sichuan spot price is 11,900 yuan/ton, up 100; Guangdong spot price is 11,960 yuan/ton, unchanged. Futures prices for pig 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,300 yuan/ton (up 55), 11,480 yuan/ton (up 65), and 11,985 yuan/ton (up 50) respectively [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Pig 2601 trading volume is 4,890 lots, down 792 from the previous day, with an open interest of 21,478 lots, down 1,773. Pig 2603 trading volume is 64,490 lots, up 8,060, with an open interest of 161,915 lots, up 62. Pig 2605 trading volume is 13,800 lots, up 4,573, with an open interest of 82,431 lots, up 420 [3] - **Price Spreads**: Pig 2601 basis is 480 yuan/ton, down 5 year - on - year; pig 2603 basis is 300 yuan/ton, down 15; pig 2605 basis is - 205 yuan/ton, unchanged. Pig 1 - 3 spread is - 180 yuan/ton, down 10; pig 3 - 5 spread is - 505 yuan/ton, up 15 [3] 3.2 Market Information - Multiple companies registered warehouse receipts in December 2025, including Yunnan Shennong (85 lots on Dec 4), Guizhou Fuyuan (23 lots on Dec 5), Dekang (225 lots on Dec 10, 150 lots on Dec 11), Yangxiang (40 lots on Dec 10), COFCO (300 lots on Dec 15), and Muyuan (40 lots on Dec 23) [4] - The Ministry of Commerce determined that imported related pork and by - products from the EU are being dumped [5] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish. PTA and PX 5 - 9 calendar spread is recommended for long position in the 5 - month contract and short position in the 9 - month contract [6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, prices have risen rapidly due to capital concentration, and there is a risk of price retracement when capital reduces positions. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester load and capital trends [6] - In the medium - long term, as the period of concentrated PTA capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [4][6] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Data - With the strong rise of PTA, filament factories' losses have intensified. Three mainstream filament manufacturers will implement an additional 10% production cut for POY this Wednesday, and continue the previous 15% production cut for FDY, with supervision and inspection arrangements [2] Market Analysis Cost Side - Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, crude oil has rebounded. Venezuela has become the short - term market focus. However, in Q1 next year, there is still significant downward pressure on oil prices. Recently, due to overseas holidays and commodity index fund rebalancing at the beginning of the year, liquidity may disrupt the phased market [3] PX - The PXN was $352/ton two trading days ago (a month - on - month increase of $17/ton). PX units are operating smoothly. With good expectations for the first half of next year, PXN has risen significantly. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, PX operating rates can be effectively maintained even if some refineries' reforming units have operating fluctuations. Recently, the PX calendar spread has strengthened significantly supported by the delivery logic. There will be many PX maintenance plans in the second quarter of next year, and the long - term outlook is good. Meanwhile, with the strong polyester operating rate, PXN has support. In terms of blending for gasoline, the gasoline crack spread has not improved significantly, but the US has started to stockpile aromatics. Attention should be paid to capital trends and changes in downstream polyester load [3] TA - The spot basis of the TA主力 contract is -17 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 146 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the processing fee of the主力 contract on the futures market is 305 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton). Recently, downstream raw material inventories have dropped to a low level, and the replenishment demand of polyester factories at low prices has increased significantly, driving the spot market basis to gradually strengthen. There are many near - term maintenance plans, and India's cancellation of BIS regulations has boosted PTA export demand. Supported by polyester load, the balance sheet will show inventory reduction in December, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January, which is better than previously expected. In the long run, as the period of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [4] Demand - The polyester operating rate is 91.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%). Recently, the weaving load has declined rapidly. Since the end of November, domestic orders have weakened rapidly, and grey fabric inventories have started to accumulate rapidly. Although samples for spring - summer orders next year or foreign trade orders have been made one after another, large - scale orders have not been placed yet. It is expected that the operating rate will decline more rapidly from late December. Attention should be paid to the placement of subsequent foreign trade orders. In terms of polyester, the polyester load remains strong, the profit pressure of filament is increasing, but the inventory pressure is acceptable. After the inventory of bottle - chip factories has decreased, the load has rebounded. In the short term, the risk of a significant decline in the polyester load is not large, and it is expected to remain around 91%. The decline in the polyester load is expected to occur around January [4] PF - The spot production profit is 142 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 32 yuan/ton). There are no significant changes in the fundamentals of direct - spun polyester staple fiber, and the inventory is at a low level. As raw material prices rise rapidly, the processing margin is under pressure. On the demand side, the sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn are average, the load has decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly [5] PR - The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - chips is 423 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 9 yuan/ton). Polyester bottle - chip factories have raised prices following the increase in raw material prices, and the overall processing range has been compressed to below 500 yuan. In terms of fundamentals, the bottle - chip load remains unchanged, but as the inventory of bottle - chip factories has declined, the load has rebounded. In addition, a new 300,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip plant of Shandong Fuhai has started production. In the future, there is a possibility of an increase in bottle - chip supply. In the short term, the processing range of polyester bottle - chips is expected to be limited, and the market price will fluctuate with raw materials [5] Strategy Unilateral Strategy - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish. In the short term, prices have risen rapidly due to capital concentration, and there is a risk of price retracement when capital reduces positions. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester load [6] Cross - Variety Strategy - None [7] Calendar Spread Strategy - Go long on the 5 - month contract and short on the 9 - month contract for PTA and PX [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautionary Outlook**: LPG, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, natural gas [1][3][6] - **Bearish Rebound**: Crude oil, PVC, asphalt [1][25][47] - **Continued Bearish**: L, PP [1] - **Cautious Buying on Dips**: PTA [28] - **Bearish Consolidation**: Glass, soda ash [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term price rebound due to South American geopolitical uncertainties, but long - term pressure from supply glut in the off - season [1][8] - **LPG**: Weakening due to pressure on the cost side and a large increase in warehouse receipts [12] - **L**: Returning to a weak trend after the new device is put into production, with supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure [16] - **PP**: Weak and volatile with cost support weakening and high inventory removal pressure [20] - **PVC**: High inventory restricts the rebound space, and attention should be paid to future maintenance efforts [24] - **PTA**: Good supply - demand pattern, with opportunities to buy on dips [28] - **MEG**: Weak supply - demand and inventory build - up expectations, with opportunities to short on rebounds [31] - **Methanol**: Caution when chasing long positions, with supply pressure and slightly weakened demand [34] - **Urea**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, with a weak and volatile trend [39] - **LNG**: Abundant supply leads to downward pressure on gas prices [43] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating strongly due to increased South American geopolitical uncertainties [47] - **Glass**: Low - level oscillation with high inventory restricting the rebound space [51] - **Soda Ash**: Weak and volatile with supply increasing and demand decreasing [54] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.64%, Brent up 0.47%, and SC up 2.10% [7] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term boost from South American geopolitical uncertainties; long - term downward pressure from supply glut in the off - season and inventory build - up [8] - **Fundamentals**: Supply side, the US intercepted oil tankers in Venezuelan waters; demand side, IEA expects an increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026; inventory side, US crude oil and product inventories showed mixed changes [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, and pay attention to the range of SC [435 - 445] [10] 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 23, the PG main contract closed at 4055 yuan/ton, down 1.10% [13] - **Basic Logic**: Anchored to the cost - side crude oil, with supply increasing and inventory decreasing; warehouse receipts increased [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions, and pay attention to the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [15] 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: L05 basis was - 216 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 11265 lots [18] - **Basic Logic**: New device put into production, with supply - demand imbalance, low profit, and high inventory removal pressure [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop losses on short positions in the short - term; wait to short on rebounds in the long - term; hold short positions on the LP05 spread [19] 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 basis was - 46 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 10772 lots [22] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support weakened, with high inventory removal pressure and low PDH profit [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop losses on short positions in the short - term; wait to short on rebounds in the long - term; short the MTO05 [23] 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 basis was - 318 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 108044 lots [26] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory restricts the rebound space, with supply - demand in the off - season and some devices reducing loads [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop profits on long positions; wait to buy on pull - backs in the long - term; industrial customers hedge at high prices [27] 3.6 PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 price was 4674 yuan/ton [28] - **Basic Logic**: Processing fees improved, with supply decreasing due to device maintenance and demand expected to weaken; inventory pressure is not large in the short - term but there is a build - up expectation in January [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to opportunities to buy TA05 on dips, and focus on the range of TA [5040 - 5150] [30] 3.7 MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 price was 3619 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic production load increased, overseas devices expected to reduce loads, demand expected to weaken, and inventory build - up expected in December [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds, and focus on the range of EG05 [3590 - 3680] [33] 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: Taicang spot price weakened slightly, with negative basis strengthening [36] - **Basic Logic**: Port inventory decreased, social inventory increased; supply pressure remained, and demand weakened slightly [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase long positions, and pay attention to opportunities to buy methanol 05 on dips [38] 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: U05 price was 1697 yuan/ton [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure expected to increase, demand expected to weaken, inventory at a relatively high level, and cost support weak [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Expected to be weak and volatile, pay attention to opportunities to buy U05 on dips, and focus on the range of UR05 [1680 - 1710] [42] 3.10 LNG - **Market Performance**: On December 22, the NG main contract closed at 3.965 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.48% [45] - **Basic Logic**: Demand support decreased due to mild weather, supply was abundant, and gas prices were under pressure [46] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [3.748 - 4.134] [46] 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 23, the BU main contract closed at 2909 yuan/ton, up 2.96% [48] - **Basic Logic**: Anchored to the cost - side crude oil, with supply - demand imbalance and price rebound due to South American geopolitical uncertainties [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop losses on short positions, and pay attention to the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [50] 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: FG05 basis was - 11 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 244 lots [52] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory restricts the rebound space, with weak demand and negative profit for three processes [53] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop losses on short positions in the short - term; wait to short on rebounds in the long - term, and focus on the range of FG [1000 - 1050] [53] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA05 basis was - 35 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 4523 lots [56] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increased and demand decreased, with high inventory and weak demand support [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop losses on short positions; wait to short on rebounds in the long - term, and focus on the range of SA [1140 - 1190] [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including basic metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each commodity, suggesting different trading approaches based on supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and other factors [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market hit a new high. Supply is tight, and it's recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Price is expected to oscillate. Supply is increasing, while demand is weak [1]. - **Alumina**: Price is likely to be weak and oscillating. Supply is stable, and cost support is limited [1]. - **Zinc**: It's advised to sell on rallies. Supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [1]. - **Lead**: Interval trading with a focus on buying at lows is suggested. Supply is mixed, and demand is differentiated [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply and demand are balanced, and it's recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: If downstream destocking is strong, the price may rise in the short - term; otherwise, there is a risk of correction [2]. - **Polysilicon**: It's advisable to try buying on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range. Supply decline is less than demand decline, and inventory is expected to increase [2]. - **Tin**: Wait for opportunities to buy on dips. Macro sentiment is positive, but inventory is rising [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Trade the expectation of South American bumper harvest and weak exports. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose [4]. - **Corn**: Futures price will oscillate. Spot price is expected to be weak due to reduced purchasing enthusiasm [4]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market may oscillate, and varieties will be differentiated. Pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [4]. - **Sugar**: Short - sell in the futures market and sell call options. International and domestic prices are under pressure [4]. - **Eggs**: Futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is sufficient, and demand is affected by price [4]. - **Pigs**: Futures price will oscillate. Supply is abundant, and demand is seasonally increasing [5]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term: oscillate weakly; long - term: buy far - month contracts on dips. Supply pressure eases, and demand is in the off - season [6]. - **PVC**: Use reverse arbitrage. Supply increases, and demand decreases seasonally [6]. - **PTA**: PX has a strong outlook, and PTA may see inventory accumulation in the off - season. Consider buying processing margins in the 05 contract [6]. - **Glass**: Use reverse arbitrage. Supply and demand are weak, and inventory is high [7]. - **PP**: Short - term: oscillate weakly; long - term: buy far - month contracts on dips. Supply increases, and demand weakens [7]. - **MEG**: Take profit in the short - term and watch for mid - term destocking opportunities. Supply is high, and inventory is accumulating [7]. - **Crude Oil**: Short - sell on rallies. Supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [7]. - **Styrene**: Short - term: oscillate weakly; mid - term: buy styrene on dips or use reverse arbitrage. Supply and demand are weak [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Short - sell or use reverse arbitrage. Supply increases, and demand is weak [8].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 24 日 工业硅：逢高做空 多晶硅：加大开仓限制，关注情绪面波动 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,780 | 185 | 415 | -180 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 351,425 | 44,483 | 131,753 | 21,749 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 213,776 | -7,830 | 11,513 | -47,228 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 59,225 | 380 | 625 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 153,313 | -59,967 | -123,635 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 131,603 | ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 PVC：短期反弹空间或有限 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 1-5月差 | | 4450 | 4420 | -30 | -288 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 现货一口价成交为主，盘中价格受政策性气氛推动明显上涨，然市场刚需表现谨慎，采购积 极性欠佳，短期供需基本面双弱，成交信心不足，华东地区电石法五型现汇库提报价在 4400-4550 元/吨， 乙烯法僵持在 4450-4600 元/吨。 商 品 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【市场状况分析】 PVC 估值低位，虽然市场交易反内卷、政策端强调着力稳定房地产市场以及近月空头大规模止盈能带动 PVC 阶段性反弹，但这种反弹空间有限，主要因 PVC 市场高产量、高库存结构短期难改变。冬季仍是氯碱 企业检修淡季，即 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年12月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽度震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽度震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 24 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 778. 5 | -3.0 | -0. 38% | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 554.034 | 2, 081 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The two-olefin futures main contracts fluctuated widely during the day and operated weakly overall. The supply of plastics and polypropylene is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak, with the bear market pattern continuing [2]. - The benzene futures price fell after reaching 5,500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand pressure may ease. The styrene futures main contract rose, but the supply increase may be greater than the demand increase [3]. - PX prices rose due to strong expectations, but the cost transmission resistance may gradually appear. Ethylene glycol is under long-term pressure, and the new supply concerns have limited impact on the current market [4]. - The raw materials are strong, squeezing the profits of downstream polyester products. Short fibers have a relatively good long-term supply and demand pattern, and bottle chips are driven by cost with overcapacity pressure [5]. - Methanol may operate weakly in the short term and has upward driving force in the medium and long term. The urea market continues to have a pattern of oversupply [6]. - PVC may operate at a low level, and caustic soda will continue to compress profits [7]. - Soda ash faces long-term oversupply pressure, and glass needs to continue to reduce production capacity to reach balance [8]. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The two-olefin futures main contracts fluctuated widely and operated weakly. The supply of plastics and polypropylene is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak, with the bear market pattern continuing [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The benzene futures price fell after reaching 5,500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand pressure may ease. The styrene futures main contract rose, but the supply increase may be greater than the demand increase [3]. Polyester - PX prices rose due to strong expectations, but the cost transmission resistance may gradually appear. Ethylene glycol is under long-term pressure, and the new supply concerns have limited impact on the current market [4]. - The raw materials are strong, squeezing the profits of downstream polyester products. Short fibers have a relatively good long-term supply and demand pattern, and bottle chips are driven by cost with overcapacity pressure [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol may operate weakly in the short term and has upward driving force in the medium and long term. The urea market continues to have a pattern of oversupply [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC may operate at a low level, and caustic soda will continue to compress profits [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash faces long-term oversupply pressure, and glass needs to continue to reduce production capacity to reach balance [8].

【纯苯-苯乙烯】 日内统苯期价触及5500元/吨后回落,华东现货价格小幅调整,山东地炼出货良好。周度开工小幅下降，港口库 存继续回升。后市有统苯装置检修及下游提负预期,供需压力或有所缓解,但甲苯歧化效益好转,供应有增长 预期，供需面驱动有限。明年上半年去库预期下，中线考虑逢低介入月差正套。 两烯期货主力合约日内宽幅震荡，整体偏弱运行。基本面上，部分一体化企业丙烯外放情况仍存，加之局部前 朗复工企业丙烯商品量计划外放,市场整体供应相对充裕。生产企业库存压力可控,稳市意愿或相对明显。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内窄幅波动,熊市格局延续。聚乙烯方面,供应端高负荷运行,库存去化缓慢。 下游开工不足，采购以刚需为主,新增订单寥寥,需求端持续乏力。市场多持观望态度,成交谨慎,供需矛盾 短期难有改善。聚丙烯方面,近期聚丙烯栓修装置部分重启,现货货源供应仍较为充裕,且随着天气降温,下 游部分行业进入淡季,预期需求转弱,市场情绪仍偏谨慎。 | 11/11/2 | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月23日 | | ...