Core Viewpoint - The performance of financial products is showing divergence, with "fixed income +" products gaining advantages in a volatile bond market, while pure fixed income products are experiencing a decline in yields [1][2][5] Asset Performance Divergence - Since late July, the bond market has seen adjustments, leading to a decline in yields for pure fixed income financial products, which primarily consist of bonds. The average annualized yield for open-ended fixed income products was 2.81%, down 0.23 percentage points from the previous month [1][2] Market Dynamics - Financial companies are reducing long-duration bonds to lower volatility, which further exacerbates the decline in yields. The bond market's adjustment is influenced by expectations of "anti-involution" policies and a stronger equity market, prompting a shift of funds from bonds to equities [2][3] Diversified Allocation Strategies - "Fixed income +" products are designed to balance risk and return by incorporating a mix of fixed income and equity assets. Strategies include investments in high-dividend stocks, gold, and various equity indices, aiming to enhance yields through diversified asset allocation [3][4] Future Outlook - The financial market is expected to face structural contradictions between ample funds and a scarcity of quality assets. "Fixed income +" products are anticipated to become important tools for balancing returns and volatility, with a potential increase in the scale of rights-inclusive financial products [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and human behavior in investment, warning against the assumption that past patterns will repeat for profit [1]. Market Overview - The stock market continues to show strength, with most commodities rising and major banks reportedly purchasing bonds, leading to fluctuations in bond market rates [2][3]. - The central bank conducted a 1,385 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 3,090 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,705 billion yuan [1]. Interest Rates and Trading Data - The weighted rates for various repurchase agreements are as follows: R001 at 1.35%, R007 at 1.47%, R014 at 1.50%, and R1M at 1.55% [2]. - The trading volume for R001 was 75,317.49 million yuan, showing an increase of 3,625.51 million yuan, while R007 saw a decrease in trading volume to 7,292.82 million yuan, down by 409.52 million yuan [2]. Bond Market Sentiment - The sentiment in the bond market remains stable, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.703% and slightly decreasing to 1.697% [3]. - The bond futures market has been trading within a narrow range between the 5-day and 20-day moving averages for six consecutive trading days, indicating uncertainty among traders [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market lacks its own driving factors this year, with its fluctuations mainly influenced by external factors. The "endogenous" fluctuations of the bond market are converging, and it's difficult to change the "meager fluctuations" of this year's bond market. In the second half of the year, the bond market is expected to have narrow - range oscillations each month, and neither excessive short - nor long - positions are advisable [5][10][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 6 - month Bond Market's Expected "Old Script" - Since June, interest rates have been consolidating and oscillating, and fund durations have gradually increased, anticipating a downward trend in interest rates in July. The market was skeptical about the economic outlook despite good Q2 GDP data, expecting a neutral tone from the July Politburo meeting. As a result, in early July, the overall fund duration increased, and there was an expansion of credit - bond ETFs. In June, the net inflow of market - making credit - bond ETFs was 6.3314 billion yuan, a 146% increase from May. In mid - July, the Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF took over the market, with an average duration of about 4.3 years and 3.9 years for the tracked indices [13] 2. New Developments in the Equity and Commodity Markets - Starting from June, the commodity and equity markets showed a completely opposite trend to the bond market, entering a trading mode with rapidly increasing risk appetite. Commodity prices rebounded from lows and then rose across the board, fully recovering the gap caused by the April tariff shock by July 22. The equity market reached new highs and continued to rise, spreading from bank dividends to low - valuation sectors in the technology sector and then to the cyclical sector. The bond market's expected scenario did not occur, and it started to adjust rapidly on July 21 [4] 3. Bond Market's Rise and Fall Driven by External Factors - The bond market has been in a narrow - range technical oscillation, with interest rates fluctuating around the central level by about 10 BP. Two major factors causing significant adjustments in the bond market are external: the unexpected escalation of trade frictions in April led to a sharp decline in bond interest rates, with the 10Y Treasury bond rate dropping from over 1.8% to 1.61% on April 7; the resonance of the equity and commodity markets in late July led to an accelerated upward movement of the 10Y interest rate, breaking through 1.70% [5][21] 4. The "Positive and Negative" Sides of the Convergence of Bond Market's Endogenous Fluctuations - On one hand, the yields of bond - based funds have declined, and the expected returns of bond - related assets need adjustment. As of August 1, the performance of pure - bond funds this year has been weaker than in 2024. On the other hand, the market's attention to bonds has significantly decreased. The trading volume of Treasury bond futures has not changed significantly, while the trading volume of coking coal contracts has increased. The "asset shortage" narrative in the bond market is also weakening, as insurance premium growth has slowed, rural commercial banks' trading volume has decreased, and the buying power of wealth management products for long - term bonds has weakened [24][25][26] 5. Main Themes in the Second Half of the Year - The market needs to find factors beyond the "stock - bond seesaw" effect. When the equity market stabilizes above 3500 points, it's necessary to consider the factors jointly influencing the stock and bond markets. The expectations, verifications, and adjustments of "anti - involution" will continue, and the market's understanding will change. The underestimated overseas and tariff factors may resurface. The most important factor for the bond market may be its own asset - liability changes. If the average annualized returns of bond funds and wealth management products are less than 1.5% by the end of the year, there may be a shift of deposits to riskier assets [8][30][33]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities, including predictions on price trends and trading suggestions [1][3][4]. Summaries by Commodity 1. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national heavy - quality soda ash mainstream price is 1353 yuan/ton, with recent weak oscillations. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 1370 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [1]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol starts at a high level and continues to rise. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 2485 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **PX**: PX supply and demand turns marginally weaker. It is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by increased domestic supply and decreased demand [12]. 2. Metals - **Gold**: The US economic downward pressure increases, but the global economy recovers. The dollar index has weak rebound momentum, which is bullish for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will remain in a high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish mid - term trend [1]. - **Silver**: Trump criticizes the Fed again, increasing market risk appetite. The dollar index has weak rebound momentum, and silver oscillates bullishly [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume rebounds. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate following the sector [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is fair, but the supply - demand relationship may become looser in the long - term. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4]. - **Rebar**: High cost and low demand compete, and the steel price may oscillate in a narrow range in the short - term [4]. 3. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on OPEC+ production cuts and US sanctions on Russia. The international crude oil price is under pressure and is expected to be weak in the short - term [11]. 4. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: The short - term market maintains a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short - term or long - term layout of LH2511 long positions [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic spot fundamentals are weak, but there is limited downward space in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see if it can break through the previous high of 9106 yuan/ton [8]. 5. Others - **Plastic**: LLDPE production enterprises' inventory decreases, and the price decline slows down. The L2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 7390 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic downward pressure increases, and liquidity eases, which is bullish for the short - end bond market. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic [9]. - **Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The policy is positive, but the stock market recovers, and the bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw [10]. - **Rubber**: The overall supply - demand of rubber is expected to be tight throughout the year. The rubber price is expected to continue to rebound in the short - term [13].

Group 1: Market Overview - The economic data for July showed a stable performance, with policy stimulus expectations driving market trends, particularly following the announcement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station project, which has an investment scale of over 1 trillion yuan, leading to significant increases in equity and commodity markets [3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index recorded increases of 3.74% and 5.32% respectively, reflecting improved market risk appetite [3][4] - The bond market underperformed due to negative factors such as the "stock-bond seesaw" effect and unexpected tightening of liquidity around tax periods, resulting in rising yields across different maturities [4][11] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains mixed, with GDP growth around 5.35% year-on-year, but nominal growth remains weak at 3.9% [5][35] - Manufacturing PMI for June was recorded at 49.7%, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold, suggesting potential economic slowdown in the third quarter [5][35] - The central bank's monetary policy appears hawkish, reducing expectations for further rate cuts in the near term [5][35] Group 3: Bond Market Strategy - Looking ahead to the third quarter, demand remains weak, and short-term policy stimulus expectations are retracting, but the cooling of commodity and stock markets may provide support for the bond market [6][35] - There is potential for a 10-12 basis point downward adjustment in the yields of 10-year and 30-year government bonds, indicating attractive returns for investors [3][6] - The strategy suggests early positioning in varieties that can absorb incremental funds as a favorable approach [6][35] Group 4: Government Bond Issuance - In July, government bond issuance pressure was higher than in June, with local government bonds net issuance reaching 1.2135 trillion yuan, marking it as the second-highest month of net issuance this year [21][22] - The net issuance of treasury bonds in July was 593.3 billion yuan, with expectations for increased supply in August and September [21][22] - The anticipated net issuance scale for government bonds in August and September is projected to be 1.47 trillion and 1.14 trillion yuan respectively, indicating a heavier supply pressure in August [21][22] Group 5: Funding Conditions - The central bank's liquidity injections have led to a decrease in funding costs, with the average rates for DR001 and R001 falling to 1.45% and 1.39% respectively [26][27] - The funding environment for August is expected to remain stable, with historical data suggesting limited changes in funding rates compared to July [27][34] - The net cash flow from the central bank in July was 300 billion yuan, indicating continued support for liquidity in the market [26][27]

Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping) [3] 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On August 4, the Wind All A index opened lower and then fluctuated upward, closing up 0.76%, with more than 3,500 stocks falling. [6] - In terms of index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed up 0.39%, 0.55%, 0.78%, and 1.04% respectively, with small and medium - cap stocks performing better. [6] - Index futures performed stronger than spot. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM closed up 0.58%, 0.58%, 1.06%, and 1.53% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price). [6] 1.2 Future Outlook - In the external market, the US non - farm payrolls in July were 73,000, significantly lower than expected, and the data for May - June was revised down by a total of 258,000, indicating a weakening US labor market, which may boost the Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut process. [8] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly announced on August 1 that starting from August 8, value - added tax will be restored on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds after this date. Under the stock - bond seesaw, it is more beneficial to the equity market, especially the dividend sector. [8] - In terms of funds, the trading volume of A - shares shrank today. After the Shanghai Composite Index pulled back, it attacked the 3,600 - point mark again. Long - position holders can consider adding positions on dips. [8] - In terms of market style, the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged. The SSE 50 with stable earnings and the CSI 1000 with higher earnings recovery elasticity may perform relatively better. [8] 2. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including domestic main index performance, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of Wind All A, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, share statistics of major ETF funds, and turnover statistics of major ETFs, all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [9][14][16][18][21] 3. Industry News - No industry news is provided in the report. [31]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Views - Due to weak US employment data and strong Fed rate - cut signals, market risk appetite increases, the dollar index drops, and precious metals oscillate and stabilize. Silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - The US - India tariff negotiation continues, the dollar index weakens, which is positive for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will be in a mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. - The coke market is still in a state of tight supply and demand after five rounds of price hikes. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - The steel market returns to fundamentals. Due to high - temperature and rainy weather, demand is weak. Steel mills have good profits, and inventory reduction is under pressure. Steel prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. - Iron ore supply and demand are stable, which strongly supports the price. It is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - The pig market has a strong supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - The palm oil market has a weak fundamental, but there is little room for a sharp downward movement in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The rapeseed meal price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. - The short - fiber market has a weak fundamental, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - OPEC+ maintains a production - increase stance, but the production increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. - The overall supply and demand of rubber are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - The LLDPE market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: US employment data is weak, Fed officials signal rate cuts, the dollar index drops, and silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - **Gold**: US - India tariff negotiation affects the dollar index, and gold is in mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production increase, but the actual increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. Industrial Metals - **Coke**: After five rounds of price hikes, the market is in tight supply - demand, and it will oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are stable, and it is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - **Steel**: The market returns to fundamentals, demand is weak, and prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: Supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental is weak, and there is little short - term downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - **LLDPE**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - **Rubber**: The overall supply and demand are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - **Short - fiber**: The fundamental is weak, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw remains the main logic for the bond market recently. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market's rebound. The economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened. The keynote for the second half of the year is an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the incremental policies exceeding market expectations may be limited [2][4][30] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The China - US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on the extension of tariffs. The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed in June, and multiple departments planned key work for the second half of the year [14][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic data showed certain resilience in the second quarter, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. However, the economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be strengthened [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - In June 2025, the social financing scale stock increased year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, indicating that real - sector enterprises are more optimistic about the economic outlook [19] 3.3 Capital Aspect - The bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly, and the capital is already relatively loose. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is low [21] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of local bonds and special bonds has accelerated recently. The issuance of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The themes for the second half of the year are anti - involution and maintaining stable economic recovery. The start of infrastructure projects increases the market's expectation of further fiscal and infrastructure efforts. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market, and investors should pay attention to the subsequent trend of the stock market [30]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to a 6% value-added tax (VAT), while interest income from bonds issued before this date will remain exempt from VAT until maturity [2][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Financial Implications - The restoration of VAT on bond interest income is expected to generate additional fiscal revenue, potentially exceeding 100 billion yuan, as the bond market has seen significant capital gains in recent years [5][6]. - The current stock of interest rate bonds is approximately 118 trillion yuan, while credit bonds stand at 51 trillion yuan, indicating a need for consistent tax policies across different bond types to avoid market distortions [5][6]. - The estimated short-term revenue from the new VAT policy could reach 337 million yuan, with long-term projections suggesting that revenue could approach 1 trillion yuan as the stock of government and financial bonds continues to grow [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Pricing Dynamics - The new tax policy may lead to a dual pricing mechanism for old and new bonds, with older bonds benefiting from tax exemptions, potentially driving their yields lower [7][8]. - In a buyer's market, newly issued bonds may need to offer higher coupon rates to attract investors, while in a seller's market, the tax burden may fall on investors, affecting the coupon rates of new issues [7]. - The tax rate for proprietary institutions is set at 6%, while asset management products will be taxed at 3%, which may pressure the interest income from bond assets, necessitating more cautious investment decisions [7]. Group 3: Impact on Individual Investors - The policy change will have minimal impact on individual investors, as small-scale taxpayers with monthly sales below 100,000 yuan will remain exempt from VAT until December 31, 2027 [9].

2025 年 8 月 4 日 行业研究 如何看待股债跷跷板和 8 月流动性？ ——流动性观察第 114 期 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 6 月金融数据前瞻——流动性观察第 113 期 7 月流动性：自发宽松——流动性观察第 112 期 5 月金融数据前瞻——流动性观察第 111 期 6 月流动性展望——流动性观察第 110 期 4 月金融数据前瞻及 5 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 109 期 3 月金融数据前瞻及 4 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 108 期 2 月金融数据前瞻及 3 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 107 期 1 月金融数据前瞻及 2 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 106 期 12 月金融数据前瞻及 1 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 105 期 11 月金融数据前瞻及 12 ...