Core Viewpoint - The recent "double reduction" policy by the central bank is expected to positively impact the short-end bond market, particularly benefiting the 0-4 year local government bond ETF, which has shown strong performance and liquidity [3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of May 8, 2025, the 0-4 year local government bond ETF (159816) has increased by 0.03%, marking its seventh consecutive rise, with the latest price at 113.45 yuan [1]. - The ETF has achieved a record high in scale, reaching 1.842 billion yuan, the highest in nearly a year [2]. - The ETF has demonstrated active trading, with an intraday turnover of 134.69% and a transaction volume of 2.481 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Insights - The "double reduction" policy is anticipated to release medium to long-term liquidity, which is favorable for short-end bonds and certificates of deposit [3]. - The sensitivity of short-end interest rates to liquidity conditions suggests that the recent monetary easing will create downward space for short-end rates, contingent on the pace of funding rate declines [3]. - The 0-4 year local government bond ETF closely tracks the CSI 0-4 Year Local Government Bond Index, which includes bonds with a remaining maturity of 4 years or less, reflecting the overall performance of this segment [3][4].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Short - term bullish on Treasury bonds [3] - The stock index is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [1] Group 2: Core Views Stock Index - The EU plans to expand counter - measures; if negotiations fail, it will impose tariffs on $100 billion worth of US goods. Meetings between US and Canadian leaders have different stances. High - level China - US economic and trade talks and the 10th China - France High - level Economic and Financial Dialogue will be held. The spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce answered questions about the China - US economic and trade talks. Relevant departments will introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations". With multiple positive factors, the stock index may oscillate with a slight upward trend [1] Treasury Bonds - The impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market is not significant. The core factor restricting the decline of yields is the capital price. Although the overall capital situation is balanced, the central bank's actions in April and after the holiday show the restraint of the capital market. The "relatively high" capital interest rate is the biggest obstacle to the decline of current yields [2] Group 3: Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.13%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.67%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.99%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 2.39% [4] Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.11%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.06% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market will oscillate with a slight upward trend [5] Treasury Bonds - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract will oscillate with a slight upward trend [7] Group 5: Strategy Suggestions Stock Index - Oscillatory operation [2] Treasury Bonds - Short - term bullish [3] Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3766.20 | 1.13 | 47831 | 138953 | | 2025/05/06 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2629.60 | 0.67 | 25377 | 44285 | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5622.00 | 1.99 | 43200 | 97319 | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5953.20 | 2.39 | 107389 | 160100 | | 2025/05/06 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.04 | - 0.01 | 49555 | 189565 | | 2025/05/06 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.06 | - 0.04 | 46541 | 155595 | | 2025/05/06 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.97 | 0.11 | 61695 | 102169 | | 2025/05/06 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.31 | - 0.06 | 28361 | 93460 | [9]

Group 1: Report Core Views - Market anticipates the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the May meeting, with focus on Powell's policy tone and tariff policy interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. - Kepler lowers the forecast of US crude supply growth for the rest of 2025 and 2026 by 120,000 barrels per day to 170,000 barrels per day. Crude has short - term inventory pressure, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision, expecting rates to remain unchanged. Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver should be considered with a medium - term wide - range oscillation view [4]. - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. The bond market has an unclear internal logic, and the stock - bond seesaw is the main logic. A medium - term oscillation view is appropriate for bonds [4]. - Coke supply is slightly increasing, and demand is stable, but the expected future demand is under pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - For rebar, supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. - The national hog price is expected to be stable. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended for operation [6]. - Iron ore's short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand sustainability, crude steel reduction policies, and domestic macro - policies [7]. - Palm oil production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. - Domestic soybean supply will improve significantly. Holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. - Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. - PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. - Methanol's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [10]. - Soda ash's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [11]. - Caustic soda's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see is recommended [12]. Group 2: Specific Variety Analysis Gold - Before the Fed's meeting, "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos implies a possible rate - cut suspension. Market awaits Fed's policy tone and tariff interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. Crude Oil - Kepler lowers US crude supply growth forecast. China's positive macro - policy and tariff news boost market confidence. Short - term inventory pressure is low, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading [2]. Silver - Before the Fed's decision, risk - aversion dominates Wall Street. Market expects rates to remain unchanged, and Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver has a medium - term wide - range oscillation view, and Fed's rate - cut expectations should be monitored [4]. Treasury Bonds - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. A - shares rose, which is bad for bonds. The bond market's internal logic is unclear, and a medium - term oscillation view is appropriate [4]. Coke - Coke total inventory is 10.123 million tons (-25,000 tons). Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is stable, but future demand is under pressure. Short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. Rebar - Some steel mills adjust prices. Supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. Hogs - The national hog price is stable. Supply and demand change little in the short - term. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. Iron Ore - Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increases. Supply is expected to rise, and demand may weaken in mid - to - late May. Short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited [7]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's April palm oil production increases by 24.62% to 1.73 million tons. Production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. Soybeans - China's imported Brazilian soybeans will enter factories in May and June. Supply will improve, and holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices rise, and Thailand delays the rubber tapping season. Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. PTA - PX and PTA are under concentrated maintenance, and downstream开工率 decreases. Supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. Methanol - Methanol price drops, and开工率 decreases. Cost is stable, and demand declines. Port inventory may increase. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [10]. Soda Ash - Soda ash price is slowly falling, and开工率 decreases. Supply is expected to decline, and demand is average. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [11]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda price rises, and企业库存 decreases. Some downstream production capacity is expected to resume. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [12].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant volatility in 2025, contrasting sharply with the favorable conditions of 2024, leading to disappointing returns for investors in pure bond funds [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - In 2024, the bond market thrived under a loose monetary policy, with some pure bond funds achieving annualized returns exceeding 15%, such as Huatai Baoxing Anyue, which reached 17.96% [1][3]. - However, in the first quarter of 2025, the bond market faced tightening liquidity, resulting in a slowdown in net value growth for pure bond funds, with some even showing negative returns [3][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a notable increase of approximately 30 basis points at the beginning of 2025, impacting the asset values of pure bond funds [3][4]. Group 2: "Fixed Income +" Products - In contrast to the bond market, the A-share market showed strong performance in early 2025, driven by sectors like humanoid robots and AI, benefiting "fixed income +" products that combine equity investments with bonds [4][5]. - "Fixed income +" products, which include a mix of stable bond assets and more aggressive equity investments, outperformed pure bond funds, with average returns of 0.42% compared to 0.37% for pure bond funds by April 30, 2025 [7][8]. - The total scale of "fixed income +" products saw significant growth, with several fund managers reporting increases exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2025 [8][9]. Group 3: Fund Management Strategies - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on diversified strategies to mitigate risks associated with market volatility, emphasizing the importance of a systematic approach to investment [10]. - The performance of "fixed income +" products is heavily influenced by the underlying equity assets, which can lead to greater net value fluctuations compared to pure fixed income products [11][13]. - Investors are advised to carefully select "fixed income +" products that align with their risk preferences to avoid significant deviations from expected outcomes [13].

Core Insights - The Chinese banking wealth management market experienced a significant contraction in the first quarter of 2025, with a decrease of approximately 810 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total number of wealth management products in the market was 40,600, an increase of 300 products from the end of 2024 [2]. - The total market size for wealth management products stood at 29.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of about 810 billion yuan [2]. - The decline in market size was attributed to seasonal factors, adjustments in the bond market, and weakened returns on wealth management products [2][3]. Group 2: Product Composition - Fixed income products accounted for 28.33 trillion yuan, representing 97.22% of the total market size, which is an increase of 0.57% year-on-year [4]. - Mixed-asset products had a size of 720 billion yuan, with a market share of 2.47%, down 0.44 percentage points from the previous year [4]. - Equity products and financial derivatives had minimal market sizes of 80 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan, respectively, with shares of only 0.27% and 0.03% [4]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The allocation of wealth management funds was primarily towards bonds (13.68 trillion yuan), cash and bank deposits (7.27 trillion yuan), and interbank certificates of deposit (4.20 trillion yuan), making up 43.9%, 23.3%, and 13.5% of total investment assets, respectively [5]. - Investments in equity assets, public funds, and financial derivatives accounted for smaller proportions of 2.6%, 3.0%, and 0.05% [5]. - The current low-interest-rate environment is expected to drive diversification in wealth management fund allocations to enhance returns in the long term [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry analysts remain optimistic about the recovery of the wealth management market, with expectations of an increase of approximately 800 billion to 1.2 trillion yuan in April 2025 [7]. - The market has shown signs of recovery, with rising yields on wealth management products and a trend of deposit rate cuts by several banks, leading to potential shifts of funds from deposits to wealth management [7]. - Citic Securities predicts that the market size could exceed 32.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with "fixed income plus" products expected to be a focus for wealth management subsidiaries [8].

"存款搬家"带来增量资金。 2025年第一季度，中国银行理财市场经历了规模的显著调整。 据银行业理财登记托管中心发布的《中国银行业理财市场季度报告》（下称《报告》），截至3月末， 理财市场规模整体缩水，存续规模较2024年末减少约8100亿元。 然而，进入4月以来，市场出现回暖迹象，理财规模重新恢复增长态势。与此同时，随着商业银行存款 利率的下调以及理财产品收益率的回升，投资者"存款搬家"现象越发明显，为理财市场带来了新的增量 资金。 今年一季度，债券市场呈现出较为明显的波动态势。作为理财产品的重要基础资产，其市场表现直接拖 累理财产品的收益表现。根据普益标准的统计数据，截至一季度末，理财公司存续开放式固收类理财产 品（不含现金管理类产品）的近1个月年化收益率的平均水平为2.24%，环比再度下跌1.15个百分点。 一季度规模回落超8000亿元 《报告》显示，2025年第一季度，理财市场规模整体呈现缩水态势。 数据显示，截至2025年一季度末，全市场存续的理财产品数量为4.06万只，相较于2024年末增长了300 只；存续规模为29.14万亿元，整体规模却减少了约8100亿元。 "主要原因是受到季末回表因素的影 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, the bond market was volatile, with the short - end adjusting first under tight funding and then the long - end, resulting in a bear - flattening curve at the end of the quarter. Bond funds reduced duration and leverage. Looking ahead to Q2 2025, the fund liability side may enter a recovery phase, and scale is expected to rebound. There may be opportunities in short - term bonds if liquidity is abundant, and potential trading opportunities in the adjustment of ultra - long - term bonds. 5 - 10 - year varieties may have long - position opportunities [1][3][4][5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025Q1 Bond - type Fund Overview - **Market Trends**: In Q1 2025, the bond market was mainly traded around expectations of loose money, tight - balanced funding, the "stock - bond seesaw", and institutional behavior. In January, bond yields first declined and then rose; in February, there was an adjustment; in March, it first adjusted and then recovered [9][10]. - **Fund Market Performance**: The number of bond funds increased slightly, while the asset net value returned to the level before Q2 2024. The number of passive index - type funds increased by 4.14%. Short - term bond funds' scale decreased significantly, while mixed - type bond funds turned to positive growth [12]. - **Asset Net Value Growth Rate**: The quarter - on - quarter growth rates of medium - and long - term pure bonds, short - term pure bonds, mixed (primary), mixed (secondary), passive index, enhanced index, and convertible bond funds were - 4.9%, - 20%, + 4%, + 13%, - 7%, + 8%, + 4% respectively [14]. - **Scale Distribution**: 60% of bond funds had an asset net value of less than 2 billion yuan. The number of bond funds with a scale of less than 1 billion yuan increased, mainly medium - and long - term bond funds. The number of funds with a scale of over 5 billion yuan decreased significantly, especially those over 10 billion yuan [16]. - **Holding Situation**: Medium - and long - term pure bond funds mainly held policy - financial bonds, followed by non - policy - financial bonds and medium - term notes. Short - term bond funds held more medium - term notes and short - term financing bills. Different types of funds had different trends in holding various bonds [20][21]. - **Duration and Leverage**: Due to the tight - balanced funding and policy concerns about long - term bond risks, medium - and long - term and short - term bond funds reduced their average duration by 0.15 and 0.13 years respectively. Funds continued to reduce leverage due to the inverted repo rate and bond market rate [22] 3.2 2025Q1 Pure Bond Fund Holding Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Bond Fund Holding Overview - **Medium - and Long - Term Pure Bond Funds**: The holding structure changed little. The market value of medium - term notes, treasury bonds, and corporate bonds increased slightly, while the proportion of policy - financial bonds and certificates of deposit decreased. The current main holdings of policy - financial bonds, non - policy - financial bonds, and medium - term notes accounted for 30.9%, 15.4%, and 10.3% respectively [27]. - **Short - Term Pure Bond Funds**: The proportion of holding credit bonds increased slightly. The proportion of short - term financing bills increased significantly, while the proportion of financial bonds, medium - term notes, and certificates of deposit decreased [27]. - **Scale and Holding Relationship**: Larger medium - and long - term bond funds held a lower proportion of credit bonds and a higher proportion of policy - financial bonds. Short - term bond funds with an asset net value of over 300 million yuan held a higher proportion of policy - financial bonds and a lower proportion of credit bonds [29] 3.2.2 Top Five Holdings Analysis - **Coupon Distribution**: In medium - and long - term bond funds, the market value proportion of heavy - holding bonds with a coupon of 1 - 2% continued to increase, while the proportion of those with a coupon of over 3% decreased. In short - term bond funds, the proportion of heavy - holding bonds with a coupon of 1 - 2% was relatively high and increased significantly in the past two quarters [35]. - **Bond Type and Market Value**: Medium - and long - term bond funds still mainly held policy - financial bonds, with a slight decline in holding scale but a significant increase in the market value of non - policy - financial bonds, credit bonds, and local government bonds. Short - term bond funds also mainly held policy - financial bonds, with a decline in holding scale but a significant increase in the market value of credit bonds to a two - year high [40][42]. - **Sub - categories of Bonds** - **Financial Bonds (Excluding Policy - Financial Bonds)**: Medium - and long - term bond funds mainly held commercial bank ordinary bonds, with a slight increase in the market value of ordinary and perpetual bonds. Short - term bond funds mainly held commercial bank perpetual and ordinary bonds, with a significant decline in holding scale [45]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: Both medium - and long - term and short - term bond funds increased their holdings of Zhejiang urban investment bonds, showing a credit - sinking trend, mainly increasing their holdings of AA+ and below urban investment bonds [54][57]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The industry holdings of medium - and long - term and short - term bond funds were differentiated. Medium - and long - term bond funds continued to hold a large amount of non - bank finance but with a slight decline in scale. Short - term bond funds' heavy - holding industries changed greatly, with a decline in the market value of non - bank finance [61]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The overall fundamental contradictions of iron ore are not significant. With the easing of overseas trade frictions and market expectations for stimulus policies, iron ore is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to take short - term long positions with a light position [2]. - Economic downward pressure still supports gold. The downside space of gold is limited, and it is advisable to maintain a slightly bullish view on gold's medium - term high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - The supply of coking coal remains relatively stable, and demand is high. The market expects coke prices to continue rising, but terminal inventories are low. Short - term coking coal prices are expected to fluctuate [4]. - The cost of steel provides some support, but the lack of sustained demand restricts the rebound of steel prices. With external uncertainties, steel prices may fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - The supply and demand of live pigs are in a continuous game. Short - term prices are adjusted, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips. In the medium - to - long term, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - The decline of the external market has stopped and rebounded, and the increase in purchases supports the palm oil market. However, the downstream demand is weak, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. High - selling and low - buying strategies are recommended [5]. - The auction of soybeans by protein factories is active, and the reduction of market surplus grains boosts market confidence. However, auctions may curb rapid price increases in the short term. Soybean prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [6]. - The marginal loosening of the capital side is beneficial to the bond market, but the market still has a wait - and - see attitude towards the fundamentals. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [8]. - Trump's remarks on reducing tariffs on Chinese goods boost risk assets, but the fundamentals of silver are bearish. Before the Fed cuts interest rates, silver is unlikely to have a trending market [8]. - Concerns about the implementation of compensatory production cuts by OPEC + have led to a decline in crude oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [9]. - The demand for PTA is under pressure, and it follows the fluctuations of crude oil. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - The international raw material prices of natural rubber have fallen, and the tire start - up rate has declined. The market support is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak consolidation trend [10]. - The cost of methanol is stable, and the domestic methanol start - up is expected to remain high. The downstream demand is decreasing, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11][12]. - The downstream demand for soda ash is tepid, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - The supply of caustic soda is abundant, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13]. Summaries by Variety Iron Ore - From April 14 - 20, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,218.8 million tons, a decrease of 26.3 million tons from the previous period. The inventory is slightly lower than the average level since the beginning of the year [2]. Gold - On April 23, local time, the Fed's "Beige Book" showed that economic activity has hardly changed, but there is widespread uncertainty in international trade policies, and the prospects in multiple regions have significantly deteriorated [2]. Coking Coal - This week, the operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants in the country was 63.01%, an increase of 1.11% from the previous period; the daily average output was 53.44 million tons, a decrease of 1.34 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 271.33 million tons, a decrease of 2.58 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 181.68 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons [4]. Rebar - On April 23, the domestic steel market fluctuated strongly. The ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 50 to 2,990 yuan/ton. One steel mill raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3,323 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. Live Pigs - On April 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.47, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 119.43. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.99 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4% from the previous day; the price of eggs was 8.34 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1% from the previous day [5]. Palm Oil - From July 1, 2024, to April 20, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 period were 2.3 million tons, compared with 2.87 million tons in the same period of the previous year. China and India's demand for palm oil may increase due to its continuous discount compared with soybean oil [5]. Soybeans - As of the end of the 16th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 4.251 million tons, an increase of 625,000 tons from the previous week. The coastal inventory was 3.768 million tons, an increase of 584,000 tons from the previous week [6]. Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties declined collectively. The overnight variety declined by 8.3 BP to 1.626%; the 7 - day variety declined by 2.6 BP to 1.644%; the 14 - day variety declined by 2.8 BP to 1.772%; the 1 - month variety declined by 0.5 BP to 1.749% [7][8]. Silver - Trump said that the current tariffs on Chinese goods in the US are too high and are expected to be significantly reduced. He also said that he has no intention of firing the Fed Chairman [8]. Crude Oil - The EIA report showed that in the week ending April 18, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US was 244,000 barrels, the gasoline inventory was - 4.476 million barrels, the domestic crude oil production decreased by 200 barrels to 23.46 million barrels per day, and the EIA crude oil production implied demand data was 19.01 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan will prioritize national interests in determining oil production levels [9]. PTA - In the week of April 22, the PTA load decreased to 75.4%; the polyester load increased slightly to 93.8%, and the increase in the bottle - chip load made up for the reduction in the production of filament and staple fiber [9]. Rubber - Thailand is gradually transitioning to the tapping season, and production is expected to increase significantly in mid - May. Vietnam's production areas are waiting for precipitation and may start tapping at the end of April. In Hainan, raw material prices have fallen, and private factories have resumed purchasing rubber, with an increase in glue output. In March, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.56, a slight decrease of 3.1% from the previous month, basically the same as the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative output of rubber tires in China was 283 million, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.4%. The total export volume of Chinese rubber tires was 2.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2,418 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton. The methanol operating rate was 83.37%, a weekly decrease of 0.49%. A 250,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Yankuang Guojiao was under maintenance for about a week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate was 72.26%, a weekly decrease of 2.25%. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 463,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 122,400 tons; the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 309,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 260 tons; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 302,700 tons, a weekly increase of 28,300 tons [11]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in the country was 1,413 yuan/ton, showing a slow downward trend. The soda ash operating rate was 88.9%, an increase of 1%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.7113 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The operating rate of float glass was 75.42%, unchanged from the previous week. The average price of float glass in the country was 1,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in the country was 65.078 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19% [12]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices of liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong both decreased, and the chlor - alkali profit was 302 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 82.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The chlor - alkali plant of Anhui Huasu is expected to resume production on April 26. The weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 420,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10.83%. The weekly operating rate of downstream alumina was 80%, a decrease of 2%; the weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 78.2%, a decrease of 5.39% [13].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评—黄金】IMF首席经济学家古睿斯，美元的走软具 有相当广泛的基础。评：近期美元的持续下行，使得市场对黄 金的看涨动能增加，但是黄金在美国关税政策带来的经济下行 及通胀上升的预期已经交易的较为充分，滞胀逻辑交易较为充 分，不可过分看多，黄金短期上方空间有限，美联储降息前注 意把控节奏，关注俄乌冲突等地缘因素。 投资咨询中心 2025年04月23日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 2020 年 11月18 【短评-原油】IMF将2025年全 ...