投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 6 月 3 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 地缘政治和贸易政策升温，金价上行 核心观点 端午节前，金价震荡下行。端午节期间，地缘政治风险升级，美 国贸易政策再度升温，进而推升金价。 贸易政策方面：5 月 30 日特朗普表示，6 月 4 日起，将把钢铁和 铝的进口关税从 25%提高至 50%。此前，还威胁于 7 月 9 日对欧盟加征 50%关税，引发全球贸易战担忧。。 地缘政治方面：俄乌冲突加剧，乌克兰在第二轮和平谈判前夕， 对俄罗斯五个地区的军事机场发动大规模无人机袭击，目标包括西伯 利亚的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Gold 2508 is expected to show short - term strength due to the escalation of geopolitical and trade policies, with a short - term upward trend, a medium - term oscillation, and an upward trend for the day. Nickel 2507 is recommended for a wait - and - see approach as it has an upstream - strong and downstream - weak situation, with a short - term and medium - term oscillation and a day - long slightly weak oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Trend**: Short - term is upward, medium - term is oscillating, and for the day is upward, with a short - term strong view [1][3]. - **Driving Logic**: During the Dragon Boat Festival, US trade policies and global geopolitical risks escalated. Trump planned to raise steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, and threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU on July 9. The White House was firm on maintaining tariffs. Geopolitical risks included the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the tense situation in the Middle East, which increased the safe - haven sentiment and pushed up the gold price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 3400 - dollar mark for New York gold and the 785 - 790 mark for Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Trend**: Short - term and medium - term are oscillating, and for the day is slightly weak, with a wait - and - see view [1][5]. - **Driving Logic**: During the Dragon Boat Festival, LME nickel rose slightly, and SHFE nickel is expected to open slightly higher after the holiday, with attention on the pressure at the 122,000 level. Before the holiday, the nickel price dropped significantly due to the rumor of an increase in Indonesian nickel ore quotas, but the rumor did not impact the Indonesian nickel ore price. Technically, the short - term futures price rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the technical support at the 120,000 mark is still valid. It is expected that the liquidation of previous short positions will cause the price to continue to rebound [5].

Macro and Policy Level - The US ISM Manufacturing Index for May is expected to rise from 48.7 to 49.2, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold [1] - The second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled to take place in Istanbul, which may impact global geopolitical dynamics, particularly in energy and commodity markets [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI for May increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.3, indicating continued expansion overall [2] - The US trade deficit for April is projected to narrow from $140.5 billion to $117.3 billion, reflecting a potential easing of the "export rush" effect [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to continue lowering interest rates in June, with market focus on future rate guidance amid economic growth concerns in the Eurozone [4] Financial Data - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for May are set to be released [5] - The US will release various economic indicators, including the May non-farm payroll report, with expectations of a decrease in job additions from 177,000 to 130,000 [7] Industry Level - CATL is set to launch monthly options for its H-shares, with the first contracts available on June 2, 2025 [6] - Nintendo will globally launch the Switch 2, featuring significant upgrades in hardware performance and gaming experience compared to its predecessor [8] Company Level - Xiaomi Group held its 2025 Investor Day, where management shared strategic directions and business developments, including a visit to its automotive factory [9] - Broadcom reported Q2 fiscal year 2025 earnings, projecting revenue of $14.9 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, and AI semiconductor revenue of $4.4 billion, indicating strong growth potential [10]

Group 1: Real Estate Market Outlook - A recent poll of real estate experts indicates that the outlook for UK house prices has remained stable over the past three months due to expectations of declining borrowing costs [1] - Nationwide, house prices are expected to rise by 3.5% this year, consistent with predictions made in February [1] - In London, house prices are projected to increase by 3.0% this year, 4.0% next year, and 3.8% by 2027 [1] Group 2: Rental Market Dynamics - Urban rental prices are rising faster than house prices, making it more difficult for new buyers to save for necessary mortgages [3] - Nationwide, urban rents are expected to increase by 4.3% this year, while London rents are projected to rise by 3.7% [3] - The upcoming "Renters' Rights Bill" will impose additional conditions and tax changes on landlords, potentially driving some out of the market and contributing to a supply shortage in the rental sector [3] Group 3: Currency and Trade Implications - The British pound has strengthened against the US dollar, rising by 0.12% to 1.347, although it remains slightly below the peak of 1.359 reached earlier [5] - The pound's recent performance is attributed to investor reactions to uncertain US trade policies and expectations that the Bank of England will reduce the pace of interest rate cuts [8] - A recent court ruling has blocked certain tariffs imposed by former President Trump, which has positively impacted market sentiment and may alleviate ongoing tariff volatility [12] Group 4: Pension Fund Reforms - The UK government aims to merge multiple pension plans into a "super fund" with assets of at least £250 billion ($340 billion) by 2030, as part of a broader initiative to boost domestic investment [10] - The consolidation of pension plans is expected to facilitate investments in a wider range of assets, including private markets such as infrastructure and real estate [10] - The government is also implementing reforms to ensure that pension plans meet established allocation targets for non-liquid assets, similar to pension systems in Australia and Canada [10]

德国政府发言人5月31日发表声明称，德国总理默茨将于下周四(6月5日)访问华盛顿，与美国总统特朗 普举行"首次"会晤。声明表示，此次会晤议题将包括俄乌冲突、中东局势及贸易政策。据一名高级官员 透露，当天午餐会后，两位领导人计划在默茨启程返回柏林前在白宫进行新闻发布会。报道提到，鉴于 乌克兰总统泽连斯基与南非总统拉马福萨此前在白宫会晤期间均遭特朗普公开抨击，德国官员担忧，默 茨也会可能遭遇类似对待。为缩小双方分歧，默茨已表明愿意满足特朗普提出的部分要求，其中包括承 诺在未来几年内将德国的防务开支提高至国内生产总值5%。此前，特朗普2月28日与到访白宫的泽连斯 基在媒体前爆发激烈争吵，泽连斯基提前离开白宫。5月21日，特朗普在白宫会见到访的拉马福萨时突 然展示一些视频和剪报，指责南非正出现"针对白人的种族屠杀"。拉马福萨当场否认，并指出特朗普所 谓南非白人正逃离暴力和"种族主义"法律的说法站不住脚。(环球网) ...

截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨0.13%，报42270.07点；纳斯达克指数跌0.32%，报19113.77点；标普500指数跌0.01%，报5911.69点。本周，道琼斯工 业指数涨1.6%，标普500指数涨1.88%，纳斯达克指数涨2.01%。5月份，道琼斯工业指数涨3.94%，标普500指数涨6.15%，纳斯达克指数涨9.56%。 当地时间周五（5月30日），由于贸易不确定性持续存在，美股盘中持续震荡走低，但随后收复了部分失地。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 42270.07 | 54.34 | 0.13% | -0.64% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 19113.77 | -62.10 | -0.32% | -1.02% | | SPX | 标普500 | 5911.69 | -0.48 | -0.01% | 0.51% | 欧洲主要股指收盘涨跌互现，德国DAX指数涨0.27%，报23997.48点；法国CAC40指数跌0.36%，报7751. ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着美股财报季落幕，对于投资者来说，有一件事是肯定的：企业高管和华尔街分 析师对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普激进的贸易政策引发的"不确定性"深感担忧。 企业高管频繁提及"不确定性" 百思买(BBY.US)首席执行官Corie Barry在周四的财报电话会议上表示："展望今年余下的时间，除了业 内其他公司可能采取的行动以及美国消费者的潜在反应之外，关税水平、时机和涉及的国家仍存在不确 定性。" 其他企业高管也频繁提及"不确定性"。Deckers Outdoor(DECK.US)首席财务官上周表示，由于"全球贸 易政策相关的宏观经济不确定性"，公司无法提供全年业绩指引。AT&T(T.US)首席执行官John Stankey 表示，公司正在为资产负债表保留灵活性，以便能够应对"竞争环境或宏观环境中出现的任何不确定因 素" 。 根据Bloomberg对会议记录的分析，自4月初以来，"不确定"和"不确定性"等词汇在各公司财报电话会议 和其他活动中被提及了约3100次。根据20多年来的记录，这是出现次数最多的一个季度，甚至超过了 2008年全球金融危机最严重时期和2020年新冠疫情暴发之初。 在贸易战期间， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market may face pressure due to stable supply and weak demand. The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand, while the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of relatively stable supply and slightly reduced demand [6]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions at high prices for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum and light - position oscillating transactions for the main contract of alumina, and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Considering the expected oscillating and pressured operation of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [59]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum showed an oscillating trend, with a weekly change of - 0.42%, closing at 20,070 yuan/ton. Alumina trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 6.53%, closing at 2,962 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, there is uncertainty about the Fed's policy. Domestically, the economy is showing positive signs. Fundamentally, there may be a slight reduction in bauxite supply. Alumina supply may slightly decrease, while demand remains stable. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is relatively sufficient, and demand is in a transition from peak to off - season, with a controllable decline [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of May 30, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 20,175 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from May 23. As of May 29, 2025, the closing price of LME aluminum was 2,450.5 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars/ton (- 1.01%) from May 22 [10]. - **Position Volume**: As of May 30, 2025, the position volume of Shanghai aluminum was 514,908 lots, down 3,005 lots (- 0.58%) from May 23. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 7,950 lots from May 23 [13]. - **Futures Spreads**: As of May 30, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 2,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton from May 23. The copper - aluminum futures spread was 57,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton from May 23 [19]. - **Spot Prices**: As of May 30, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 20,240 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton (- 0.78%) from May 23. The spot premium was 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [22]. - **Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 375,075 tons, down 13,825 tons (- 3.55%) from May 21. As of May 30, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 124,433 tons, down 16,856 tons (- 11.93%) from the previous week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 482,000 tons, down 37,000 tons (- 7.13%) from May 22 [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Bauxite**: In April 2025, the monthly import volume of bauxite was 20.684 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.67% and a year - on - year increase of 45.44%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 67.7011 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.2% [29]. - **Alumina**: As of May 30, 2025, the alumina futures price was 3,081 yuan/ton, down 141 yuan/ton (- 4.38%) from May 23. In April 2025, the alumina output was 7.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 29.919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. The import volume was 107,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 90.12%. The export volume was 260,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.33% and a year - on - year increase of 100% [33][36]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In April 2025, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum was 250,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 833,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.32%. The export volume was 13,700 tons. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 34,200 tons. In April 2025, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 375,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 1.4793 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [41][44]. - **Aluminum Products**: In April 2025, the output of aluminum products was 576,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 2.1117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The import volume was 370,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The export volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 1.32 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.4%, and the export volume was 1.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7% [47]. - **Aluminum Alloys**: In April 2025, the output of aluminum alloys was 152,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 576,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. The import volume was 86,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.66%. The export volume was 16,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 367,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.22%, and the export volume was 70,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.02% [50]. - **Real Estate**: In April 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.86, a decrease of 0.09 from the previous month and an increase of 2.06 from the same period last year. From January to April 2024, the new housing construction area was 178.3584 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.13%. The housing completion area was 156.4785 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.37% [53]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to April 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 10.85% year - on - year. In April 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,589,610 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.78%. The automobile production volume was 2,618,769 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% [56]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillating and pressured operation of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be in a state where supply is sufficient and demand is relatively stable. The Fed's decision - making is affected by uncertainties, while China's economic indicators are improving. The copper concentrate processing fee is falling, and the international supply is tight, but China has sufficient port inventories and more raw material substitutes. The supply is likely to increase steadily, and the demand is stable due to the offset of seasonal consumption decline by domestic policies and trade recovery [4]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell, with a weekly change of - 0.24% and an amplitude of 1.41%. The closing price of the main contract was 77,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **International and Domestic Situations**: Abroad, the Fed's policy decision - making is uncertain; in China, economic indicators are improving, and debt sustainability is enhanced [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The copper concentrate processing fee is falling, and the international supply is tight, but China has sufficient port inventories and more raw material substitutes. The supply is expected to increase steadily, and the demand is relatively stable [4]. - **Strategy**: Light - position oscillating trading with attention to risk control [5] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Market**: As of May 30, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 365 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 430 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 77,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 190 yuan/ton, and the position was 172,994 lots, a week - on - week increase of 20,589 lots [10]. - **Spot Market**: As of May 30, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,235 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 280 yuan/ton. The premium of Shanghai copper bills of lading decreased, and the long - position held an advantage. The average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 101 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 US dollars/ton. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 8,386 lots, an increase of 304 lots from last week [14][21]. - **Option Market**: As of May 30, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai copper main contract fell to around the 50th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of the Shanghai copper option position was 1.1701, a decrease of 0.0943 from last week [26] 3.3. Upstream Situation - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of copper concentrates in the main domestic mining areas weakened, and the processing fee for blister copper strengthened. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 310 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern blister copper was 800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [29]. - **Imports and Price Differences**: As of April 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 2.9244 million tons, an increase of 531,300 tons from March, a growth of 22.2% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. The price difference between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 1,493.41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [34]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of March 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.969 million tons, an increase of 202,000 tons from February, a growth of 11.43%. The global capacity utilization rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3% from February. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven domestic ports was 740,000 tons, a decrease of 147,000 tons from the previous period [39] 3.4. Industry Situation - **Supply - Refined Copper Production**: As of April 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.254 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from March, a growth of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 10.39%. As of March 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.426 million tons, an increase of 234,000 tons from February, a growth of 10.68%. The capacity utilization rate was 82.2%, a decrease of 0.6% from February [42]. - **Supply - Imports**: As of April 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 300,181.941 tons, a decrease of 54,093.53 tons from March, a decline of 15.27% and a year - on - year decline of 1.83%. The import profit and loss amount was - 606.91 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 657.24 yuan/ton [49][50]. - **Supply - Inventory**: As of the latest data, the total LME inventory decreased by 12,350 tons from last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 4,870 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 722 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 139,300 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from last week [55] 3.5. Downstream and Application - **Demand - Copper Products Production and Imports**: As of April 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.081 million tons, a decrease of 44,200 tons from March, a decline of 2.08%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from March, a decline of 6.38% and a year - on - year decline of 0% [61]. - **Application - Power Grid and Appliance Production**: As of April 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid construction increased by 1.6% and 14.6% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 2.6%, 1.6%, - 10.7%, - 15.3%, and - 9.8% year - on - year respectively [65]. - **Application - Real Estate and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of April 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 277.2957 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month increase of 39.32%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 15.089 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 37.84% [71] 3.6. Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: As of March 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 17,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 20,500 tons [75]

Core Viewpoint - Many countries are eager to reach agreements with the United States, indicating a positive shift in trade policy [1] Group 1 - U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, highlighted the interest from various nations in forming trade agreements with the U.S. [1] - The trade policy is advancing, suggesting potential improvements in international trade relations [1] - Elon Musk and Donald Trump maintain a good friendship, which may influence business and trade dynamics [1]