周一，美国股市在开盘时表现平稳，投资者们正密切关注即将于本周发布的一系列经济数据，这些数据或 将为美联储未来降息的节奏提供重要线索。目前，道琼斯工业平均指数、纳斯达克综合指数以及标准普尔 500指数均轻微上扬，涨幅约为0.1%，而CBOE波动率指数则维持在略低于16的相对低位，显示出市场情绪 相对平稳。 值得注意的是，周二将成为本周数据发布的关键节点，其中最为引人瞩目的莫过于7月的消费者物价指数 （CPI）。鉴于近期劳动力市场出现降温迹象，此次CPI数据的发布将为市场提供一个观察关税政策对通胀 水平影响的重要窗口。分析人士指出，通胀数据的表现将对美联储在9月份的货币政策决策中是否继续降 息起到至关重要的作用。 多位经济学家及市场分析人士强调，本周即将揭晓的一系列数据不仅将揭示美国经济的最新动向，更将直 接影响投资者对未来经济走势的预期。特别是在当前全球经济环境充满不确定性的背景下，美联储的货币 政策走向成为了市场关注的焦点。因此，投资者们正屏息以待，希望通过即将发布的数据捕捉到更多关于 未来经济走向的线索。 值得注意的是，尽管当前市场情绪相对平稳，但投资者们仍需保持警惕。毕竟，经济数据的变化往往具有 不确定性 ...

Group 1 - The international spot gold price declined on August 11, 2025, primarily due to weakened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a stronger dollar, and a rebound in global risk appetite [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule for 2025 has led to a stronger dollar index, reducing the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [2] - If core inflation in the U.S. remains sticky, a prolonged high interest rate environment may continue to suppress gold prices [2] Group 3 - A rebound in global risk appetite, driven by strong performance in equity markets (such as U.S. and A-shares) or easing geopolitical tensions, may lead to a shift of funds from gold to risk assets [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is approaching its historical high, driven by factors such as Trump's approval for U.S. pension plans to invest in cryptocurrencies and potential tariffs on gold bars [3][4]. Group 1: Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Movements - Bitcoin has seen a 24-hour increase of 3.33%, surpassing $121,000, while Ethereum has risen to $4,350, marking a 78% increase since July [3]. - Institutional interest in cryptocurrencies is growing, with Bitcoin reserves valued at $113 billion and Ethereum-related investment tools accumulating approximately $13 billion [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Positive macroeconomic outlook continues to support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, with expectations that Bitcoin will break its historical high this month [4]. - The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has strengthened, indicating that Bitcoin's recent price movements are influenced by trends in risk assets [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Inflation Expectations - Optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is driving the U.S. stock market, with focus on the upcoming consumer price index report [6]. - Any weaker-than-expected inflation data could enhance the likelihood of rate cuts as early as September [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Projections - The current bullish trend in cryptocurrencies is expected to continue, with projections suggesting Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of the year [6]. - However, some investors are adopting defensive strategies in anticipation of higher-than-expected inflation data, which could lead to market volatility [7][8].

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total silver futures warehouse receipts reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 11 amounted to 1,151,962 kilograms, with a decrease of 6,425 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][4] - The main silver futures contract opened at 9,260 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 9,293 yuan, a low of 9,192 yuan, and closed at 9,210 yuan, reflecting a decline of 0.72% [1] Group 2: U.S. Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Following the Federal Reserve's July meeting, the labor market has shown significant changes, with July non-farm employment increasing by only 73,000, well below the market expectation of 104,000 [2] - The downward revision of the previous two months' employment data by a total of 258,000 marks the largest adjustment since 1979, leading to a three-month moving average employment increase of only 35,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, which remains low and aligns with expectations [2] - The upcoming Jackson Hole conference (August 21-23) is anticipated to be a critical window for Fed Chair Powell to adjust forward guidance based on the labor market data [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yield Movements - Following the non-farm data release, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell by over 20 basis points and 10 basis points, respectively, indicating a market re-evaluation of policy expectations after the recent hawkish FOMC meeting [3] - The ability of U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, to maintain an upward trend will depend on the upcoming CPI data on August 12 [3]

Report Title - "Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report: Rising Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts Provide Support for Prices" [1] Report Date - August 11, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The continuous weakening of US economic data has led to an increase in expectations of an interest rate cut in September, causing precious metal prices to fluctuate strongly. The implementation of the new round of US tariffs, the poor performance of July's non - farm payroll data, and the downward revision of May and June data have reversed the market's expectations of employment market resilience. Although the Fed's interest rate - setting meeting was hawkish, market concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical outlook are expected to support precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data released on Tuesday [4][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Gold: US economic data weakened continuously, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased. As of last Friday, the price of US gold was reported at $3458 per ounce, up 1.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3510, and the lower support level is $3390 [4] - Silver: US economic data weakened continuously, the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased, and silver inventories decreased during the week. As of last Friday, the price of US silver rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.8%, reported at $38.51 per ounce. The lower support level is $37, and the upper resistance level is $39.7 [7] 2. Weekly View - New US tariffs took effect, July's non - farm payroll data was far below expectations, and data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, reversing the market's expectations of employment market resilience and increasing the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries were announced, and the tariff increase was generally lower than market expectations, increasing the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the US and Europe. Although the market expects an interest rate cut in September, Powell said at the interest - rate meeting that the conditions for a rate cut had not been met, and the meeting result was hawkish. Trump nominated a Fed governor. With the US tariff policy basically in place, the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, and precious metal prices are expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data [8] 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Not summarized in text form, mainly presented in charts including the US dollar index, real interest rates, currency exchange rates, US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices [12][14][16] 4. Important Economic Data of the Week - US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 50.8 - The revised monthly rate of US durable goods orders in June was - 9.4% [19] 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to the highest level in a month. As of the week ending August 2, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 7000 to 226,000, higher than the economist's forecast of 221,000. The number of continued jobless claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 - Trump said he would nominate White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Milan to temporarily serve as a Fed governor to fill the vacancy left by Kugler's unexpected resignation [21] 6. Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 4062.44 kg to 1,200,128.17 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 300 kg to 36,045 kg - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 5260.36 kg to 15,753,687.21 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 25,570 kg to 1,158,387 kg [10] 7. Fund Holdings - As of August 5, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 230,217 contracts, an increase of 13,029 contracts from last week - As of August 5, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 48,500 contracts, a decrease of 8719 contracts from last week [10] 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - August 12 (Tuesday), 20:30: US July CPI annual rate unadjusted - August 14 (Thursday), 20:30: US July PPI annual rate - August 15 (Thursday), 20:30: US July retail sales annual rate; 22:00: US August preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence index [32]

Inflation Data Summary - July CPI year-on-year growth is 0%, exceeding the expected -0.1% and matching the previous month's 0.1%[1] - July CPI month-on-month growth is 0.4%, up from -0.1% in the previous month and down from 0.5% year-on-year[1] - Core CPI year-on-year growth is 0.8%, slightly above the previous value of 0.7%[1] PPI Analysis - July PPI year-on-year decline is -3.6%, worse than the expected -3.4% and unchanged from the previous month[1] - PPI month-on-month change is -0.2%, an improvement from -0.4% in the previous month[1] - The decline in PPI is primarily driven by weak demand, with upstream industry price declines narrowing more significantly[2] Sector Contributions - Service and industrial consumer goods support CPI growth, contributing over 60% to the total CPI increase[2] - Food prices decreased by 0.2%, underperforming compared to the seasonal average decline of 0.7%[2] - Upstream industries like coal mining and black metal smelting show reduced price declines, indicating some recovery in these sectors[3] Future Outlook - To achieve a positive year-on-year PPI by year-end, the average month-on-month growth over the next five months needs to reach at least 0.42%[3] - The "anti-involution" policy effects are beginning to show, but full transmission may take time[3] - The current inflation data suggests a moderate environment, supporting a loose monetary policy stance[3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts within the year, emphasizing the need for action due to recent weak labor market data [1][3] - Bowman advocates for initiating rate cuts at the September meeting to prevent further deterioration in the labor market and to reduce the likelihood of needing larger policy adjustments later [3][4] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also noted the proximity of rate cuts, suggesting two 25 basis point cuts this year, with a focus on whether to cut in September and December [3][4] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin three consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting in September, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [3][4] - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with Bowman and another governor voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3][4] - Recent labor market data shows a significant underperformance, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the expected 100,000, and previous months' data being revised downwards [4][5] Group 3 - Inflation data indicates stability, with the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, slightly higher than May [5] - The core PCE price index also rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, aligning with market expectations [5] - Upcoming key economic data releases, including July CPI and PPI, are anticipated to provide important insights for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and remained flat year-on-year at 0.0% due to significant pressure from food prices[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.8%, the highest in 17 months, indicating effective domestic demand policies[2] - Vegetable prices saw a significant decline due to high base effects from the previous year, while pork prices continued to drop due to weak terminal demand[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and by 0.2% month-on-month, marking a continued decline in the mining and raw material processing industries[2] - The coal mining and oil extraction sectors were the largest contributors to the PPI decline, with mining industries showing a year-on-year drop of 14.0%[2] - The report anticipates a slight recovery in PPI in August, projecting a year-on-year rate around -3%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report suggests that while CPI may rise above 0 in August, energy prices remain a significant constraint on overall inflation recovery[2] - The ongoing weak demand in the mid and downstream sectors is expected to limit the positive impact of anti-involution policies on PPI[2] - The effectiveness of domestic policies in stimulating demand will be crucial for any significant recovery in PPI throughout the year[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The inflation data in July showed that CPI was weakly recovering, while PPI was oscillating at the bottom. The positive changes in price operation were mainly due to the continuous manifestation of the effects of policies to expand domestic demand. In the future, prices may continue to rise moderately at a low level [1][2][3]. - In the short - term, the bond market may maintain a pattern of "oscillation + recovery". The overall stable macro - policy, fundamental logic, loose orientation of monetary policy, and reasonable and sufficient liquidity still support the bond market, but attention should be paid to the possible disturbances of changes in the stock and commodity markets to the bond market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 7 - month Inflation Data: CPI Weakly Recovering, PPI Oscillating at the Bottom - In July, CPI was flat year - on - year (previous value was 0.1%), with a month - on - month increase of 0.4% (previous value was - 0.1%); PPI was - 3.6% year - on - year (unchanged from the previous value), and - 0.2% month - on - month (with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous value) [1]. - The data in July confirmed "inflation at the bottom and structural differentiation". On one hand, policies to expand domestic demand promoted the recovery of service consumption and industrial consumer goods prices, and the increase in core CPI confirmed the marginal repair of internal driving force. On the other hand, seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment affected the price decline of some industries, and PPI was still oscillating at the bottom year - on - year [2]. - The rise in bulk prices in July deviated from the weak PPI. The reasons were that the price increase in the upstream could not be effectively transmitted to the downstream, and the insufficient terminal demand weakened the price transmission power. If there was no obvious repair of demand, the pulling effect of upstream price increases on PPI would be limited [3]. 3.2 CPI: Month - on - Month Change from Decline to Increase, Core CPI Reached a New High in the Year - In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, and the month - on - month change turned from decline to an increase of 0.4%, stronger than the seasonal level, mainly supported by service and industrial consumer goods prices. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since March 2024 [9]. - Service prices increased by 0.6% month - on - month, contributing about 0.26 percentage points to the month - on - month increase of CPI. Affected by the peak summer travel season, prices of air tickets, tourism, hotel accommodation, and vehicle rental increased by 17.9%, 9.1%, 6.9%, and 4.4% respectively month - on - month [10]. - Industrial consumer goods prices increased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing about 0.17 percentage points to the month - on - month increase of CPI. Energy prices increased by 1.6% month - on - month, and industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy increased by 0.2% [11]. - Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, reaching a high point since March 2024, mainly due to the increase in the prices of gold and platinum jewelry. The year - on - year decline in automobile prices converged. Food prices decreased year - on - year, becoming the main drag on CPI [11]. 3.3 PPI: Month - on - Month Decline Narrowed, Year - on - Year Continued to Bottom - In July, PPI was - 3.6% year - on - year, remaining the same as the previous month, showing signs of bottoming out, indicating weak demand in the industrial sector. The month - on - month decline was 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, the first narrowing of the month - on - month decline since March [18]. - The drag on the month - on - month PPI was mainly affected by seasonal disturbances and trade uncertainties. Eight industries in total affected the month - on - month decline of PPI by about 0.24 percentage points. Seasonal factors affected the PPI of some industries, and uncertainties in the international trade environment put pressure on the prices of export - related industries [19][20]. - Positive factors were that the effects of capacity governance and "anti - involution" policies were gradually emerging, and the month - on - month decline in the prices of coal, steel, photovoltaic, and lithium batteries narrowed, weakening the downward pull on PPI [20].

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 8月9日，国家统计局公布7月通胀数据，CPI同比0%、前值0.1%、预期-0.1%、环比0.4%；PPI同 比-3.6%、前值-3.6%、预期-3.4%、环比-0.2%。 核心观点：统计时点及中下游产能利用率偏低是PPI表现偏弱的两条"暗线"。 7月PPI继续磨底，大宗价格对PPI环比拉动虽转正，但统计上未囊括下旬的涨价情况，因而中上游PPI表 现不及高频数据。 PPI为每月5日、20日调查单价的简单平均值，而反内卷带动的涨价集中于下旬，因此 本月PPI（环比-0.2%）不及预期。高频数据也与PPI走势分化，7月煤、钢价格回升，而煤炭采选 （-1.5%）、黑色压延（-0.3%）环比仍为负。相比之下，油价、铜价对本月PPI贡献为正， 测算大宗商品 价格拉动PPI环比0.1%。 同时中下游价格对PPI拖累仍较大，也令7月PPI表现低于市场预期。 与2016年上游涨价向下游传导不同 的是，本轮供给过剩更多在中下游，导致上游涨价向下游传导受阻。如石化链下游PPI跌幅大于上游价格 理论传导幅度；机械设备、消费下游亦有类似特征， 测算7月中下游拖累PPI环比-0 ...