Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen has introduced significant real estate policy changes aimed at optimizing housing purchase restrictions, corporate purchasing policies, and personal housing credit policies, reflecting a combination of urban governance and public welfare [1][6] Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy allows eligible residents, including both local and non-local families who have paid social insurance or income tax in Shenzhen for over a year, to purchase an unlimited number of homes in specific districts [2][3] - Non-local families without the required proof can still buy up to two homes in the same districts, which include Luohu, Baoan, Longgang, Longhua, Pingshan, and Guangming [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new policy, there was a noticeable increase in property viewings and consultations, with some real estate agents reporting a significant rise in client inquiries [2][3] - The number of consultations for second-hand homes reached the highest level in nearly 90 days, with a 15% increase in viewing volume compared to the previous eight weeks, particularly in Luohu where the viewing volume surged by 38% [3][4] Group 3: Future Expectations - The release of new demand may be more evident during the upcoming National Day holiday, with expectations that the policy will stimulate market activity without causing drastic fluctuations [5][6] - The policy is expected to enhance market confidence and stabilize expectations, particularly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, which is traditionally a peak season for real estate transactions [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is likely to support copper prices, with recent price changes showing a slight increase in copper prices [4][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision and the demand during the peak season of September and October [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report notes that the U.S. manufacturing PMI for August was below expectations, indicating potential economic weakness [10] - The U.S. non-farm employment data for August was significantly lower than expected, which may influence market sentiment [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 2.12% compared to a decline of 1.18% in the index [12] - Key stocks that performed well include Western Mining and Coldray Cobalt, while others like Shenghe Resources and Beikong Technology lagged [12] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is reported at 24.04, with a slight decrease of 0.31 [21] - The PB for the sector stands at 2.88, also showing a minor decrease [21] 4. Copper - Copper prices saw an increase of 0.73% in London and 0.92% in Shanghai, while New York copper prices fell by 0.91% [26] - The report indicates a decrease in London copper inventory by 0.60% and an increase in Shanghai copper inventory by 2.64% [26] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices decreased slightly, with London aluminum down by 0.11% and Shanghai aluminum down by 0.29% [38] - The report notes a rise in aluminum production costs and a slight increase in profit margins for aluminum producers [38] 6. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell by 6.15% to 74,750 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide prices decreased by 1.76% [74] - The report suggests that the demand for lithium may rebound as inventory levels decrease during the peak season [74] 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with MB cobalt rising by 1.27% to $15.95 per pound, and domestic cobalt prices also showing an upward trend [85] - The report highlights the impact of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo on cobalt supply and pricing [85]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen has introduced significant policy adjustments to its real estate market, aimed at optimizing housing purchase regulations and personal housing credit policies, which are expected to stimulate market activity and meet diverse housing needs [2][3][4]. Policy Adjustments - The new policy reduces the scope of housing purchase restrictions, allowing eligible households in specified districts to purchase an unlimited number of homes, while non-residents with less than one year of social insurance or tax payments can buy up to two homes [2][4]. - The policy will take effect on September 6, 2025, and applies to various districts, with specific rules for different areas [2][4]. Market Response - Following the announcement, there was an increase in inquiries and viewings in the Luohu district, although the growth was not explosive, and some sellers in the secondary market were adjusting their prices [3][4]. - The policy aims to better meet the rigid and diverse housing demands of residents and promote stable development in the real estate market [3][4]. Financial Institutions - Banks are instructed to set mortgage rates without differentiating between first and second homes, allowing for more flexible pricing based on market conditions and client risk profiles [5][6]. Broader Market Context - The real estate market is entering a traditional peak sales season, with expectations of increased activity due to the new policies and upcoming market dynamics [7][9]. - In August, the market showed signs of resilience, with new home sales declining but still maintaining a significant volume, indicating potential for recovery in the following months [8][9].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The demand peak season is approaching, and the outlook for viscose staple fiber is expected to improve. The viscose staple fiber sector is subject to policy restrictions on new product construction. Recently, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber has been at a high level, with rapid inventory decline and improved profit margins. The traditional demand peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to boost demand for viscose staple fiber [6][12]. Industry Overview - From September 1 to September 5, 2025, the basic chemical industry experienced a weekly decline of 1.36%, ranking 20th among all Shenwan first-level industries in terms of weekly performance. The top five stocks in terms of weekly gains in the basic chemical industry were: Dazhongnan, Lushan New Materials, Taihe Technology, Lingpai Technology, and Jianbang Co., Ltd. The top five stocks in terms of weekly losses were: Tongyi Zhong, Meilian New Materials, Jianye Co., Ltd., *ST Yatai, and Akoli [5][10]. Investment Recommendations - With the traditional demand peak season approaching, the outlook for viscose staple fiber is expected to improve. Mid-term investment focus in the basic chemical industry includes: 1. Refrigerant industry constrained by quotas (Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., Yonghe Co., Ltd., Dongyue Group); 2. Industries benefiting from "anti-involution," such as titanium dioxide (Longbai Group); 3. Industries driven by domestic demand to hedge against tariff impacts, such as phosphate fertilizer (Yuntianhua) and civil explosives (Guangdong Hongda) [8][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with seasonal demand in September and October, is likely to drive up industrial metal prices. The demand for copper is expected to remain strong despite a slight decline in production [2][3]. - For energy metals, the report anticipates a significant increase in cobalt prices due to reduced supply and strong demand, while lithium prices are expected to remain robust during the traditional peak season [3]. - In the precious metals sector, the report is optimistic about gold prices rising due to strong central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties, with silver also expected to perform well due to its industrial applications [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that the SMM imported copper concentrate index increased by $0.63 per ton, indicating a positive trend in copper demand. The electrolytic copper production is expected to decline, which may support prices in the upcoming months [2]. - Aluminum production has slightly increased, and the demand side shows signs of support as downstream buyers are starting to stock up [2][19]. - The report recommends companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining as key investment opportunities in the industrial metals sector [2]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise significantly due to supply shortages and increased purchasing activity from the market. Lithium demand is also projected to grow, leading to a tighter supply situation [3]. - The report suggests that companies like Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium are worth watching due to their potential in the energy metals market [3]. Precious Metals - The report emphasizes a strong outlook for gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing central bank purchases. Silver is also expected to see price increases due to its industrial demand [4]. - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Western Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining [4].

Core Insights - The recent "8·8" policy in Beijing has significantly boosted market confidence, leading to increased customer visits and transactions in both new and second-hand housing markets [1][6]. Group 1: New Housing Market - Customer visits to new housing developments outside the Fifth Ring Road increased by 40% following the policy implementation, with sales representatives reporting high levels of activity [2][3]. - A specific new project in the Changping District saw a 40% increase in customer visits and improved conversion rates, with one sale for every 14 groups of visitors [3]. - In the Fifth Ring Road area, new housing projects also experienced a 30% increase in visitor numbers and over a 10% rise in contract signings [3]. Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Market - The new policy has led to a 30% increase in inquiries and viewings in the second-hand housing market, with many new customers entering the market [4]. - The policy adjustments have allowed some families to qualify for purchasing properties within the Fifth Ring Road, leading to a resurgence of previous clients [4]. - The changes in public housing fund policies have also enabled buyers to increase their loan limits, thereby reducing financial pressure [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Expectations - In August, Beijing recorded 2,824 new residential contracts, a 2.3% increase from the previous month, while second-hand residential contracts rose by 4.1% to 13,119 [6]. - The combination of policy adjustments is expected to stimulate demand for both first-time and upgrading homebuyers, creating favorable conditions for the upcoming "golden September" [6][8]. - Real estate companies are optimistic about the market's performance in September, with many planning to launch promotional campaigns to capitalize on the policy benefits [8].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen has introduced significant policy adjustments to its real estate market, aimed at optimizing housing purchase regulations and personal housing credit policies, which are expected to stimulate market activity and improve housing demand [1][4]. Policy Adjustments - The new policy reduces the scope of housing purchase restrictions, allowing eligible households in specified districts to purchase an unlimited number of homes, while non-residents with less than one year of social insurance or tax payments can buy up to two homes [2][3]. - The policy is set to take effect on September 6, 2025, and applies to various districts, with specific rules for each area [2][3]. Impact on Market Demand - Following the announcement, there was an increase in inquiries and viewings in the Luohu district, although the overall transaction data has not yet shown a significant uptick [2]. - The policy aims to meet the rigid and diverse housing needs of residents, promoting a stable and healthy development of the real estate market [2][4]. Corporate Housing Purchases - Enterprises are now allowed to purchase residential properties in Shenzhen to address employee housing needs, with specific conditions for purchases in certain districts [3]. - This move is intended to encourage investment in Shenzhen and retain financially capable companies, thereby injecting new momentum into the housing market [3][4]. Financial Policy Adjustments - Banks are no longer differentiating between first and second home loans in their interest rate pricing, allowing for more flexible loan conditions based on market rates and individual risk assessments [3][4]. - The Shenzhen government is also revising its housing fund management policies to support housing consumption and improve rental extraction policies [3]. Market Trends - The real estate market is entering a traditional peak sales season, with expectations of increased activity in September and October due to the new policies and heightened developer enthusiasm [5]. - In August, new home sales in Shenzhen saw a decline, with a total of 1,352 units sold, reflecting a 13.4% month-on-month decrease and a 52.8% year-on-year decrease [5]. - The second-hand housing market recorded 5,267 transactions in August, showing a 7.1% month-on-month decline but a 12.8% year-on-year increase, indicating some resilience in the market [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in gold and silver prices due to lower-than-expected non-farm payroll data, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][34] - The outlook for gold and silver prices remains strong, with expectations of rising inflation and declining employment in the U.S. economy [1][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming economic data releases, particularly the CPI data on September 11 and the FOMC meeting on September 17 [1] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a historical high, while silver prices hit a yearly high due to increased interest rate cut expectations following disappointing U.S. employment data [1][34] - The U.S. non-farm payroll for August was reported at 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.3% [1][34] - The market's expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut rose to 86% after the employment data release [1][34] - Key companies to watch include: Xinyi Silver Tin, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand in September and October [2] - Global copper inventories increased by 43,800 tons, with notable increases in China and LME [2] - Chile's copper exports for August were reported at 176,430 tons, with significant exports to China [2] - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to domestic and international policies, with a theoretical operating capacity of 44.085 million tons in China [2] - Companies to focus on include: Luoyang Molybdenum, Nanshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao [2] Energy Metals - Lithium prices are experiencing a downward trend, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 73,000 yuan/ton, down 6.3% [3] - Lithium production increased by 2% to 19,400 tons, with a utilization rate of 48% [3] - The demand for electric vehicles is expected to rise, with August sales of 1.1 million electric vehicles [3] - Companies to monitor include: Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Xizang Mining [3] Key Companies - The report lists several companies with investment ratings, including: - Shanjin International (Buy) [7] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (Buy) [7] - Luoyang Molybdenum (Buy) [7] - China Hongqiao (Buy) [7] - Zhongtung High-tech (Buy) [7]

Core Insights - Shenzhen has implemented significant policy changes regarding housing purchase restrictions, narrowing the limited purchase areas to specific districts, which exceeded market expectations [1][5][6] - The new policy has led to an immediate increase in market activity, with a notable rise in both new and second-hand property inquiries and transactions [2][3][4] Policy Changes - The limited purchase areas have been significantly reduced, with only Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an's Xin'an Street remaining under restrictions, while other districts have been fully opened for purchases [6][7] - Local residents can purchase an unlimited number of properties, while non-residents can buy up to two properties after meeting certain criteria [6] Market Response - Following the announcement, there was a reported increase of over 10% in visitor numbers to property sites, indicating a boost in buyer confidence [1][2] - Some projects experienced a doubling of inquiries compared to previous weeks, with immediate sales reported shortly after the policy announcement [2][3] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the new policies will stimulate market activity, particularly in the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period, with expectations of a significant increase in transaction volumes, potentially exceeding 50% [8] - The easing of mortgage rates for second homes is expected to further enhance demand, particularly for improved housing products [8]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's recent policy adjustments, particularly the relaxation of purchase restrictions, have exceeded market expectations and are expected to significantly boost market confidence and transaction volumes [1][7][9]. Policy Changes - The new policy has narrowed the purchase restriction areas, with only Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an's Xin'an Street remaining under restrictions, while areas like Luohu and Bao'an's Xixiang Street are no longer restricted [7][8]. - In other districts, local residents can purchase unlimited properties, while non-residents can buy up to two properties, and certain areas have completely lifted purchase qualification reviews [8]. Market Response - Following the announcement, there was an immediate increase in buyer inquiries and visits to properties, with some projects reporting visitor numbers doubling compared to previous weeks [3][4]. - Specific projects noted a significant uptick in sales, with some reporting multiple transactions within a single morning after the policy announcement [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Industry experts believe that the new policy will enhance market sentiment, encouraging developers to increase supply and buyers to enter the market, thus stimulating demand [9][10]. - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period is anticipated to further amplify market activity, with expectations of a transaction volume increase of over 50% in September [11]. Long-term Implications - The policy is seen as a strategic move to attract buyers from surrounding regions and to stabilize prices in non-core areas, while still maintaining some restrictions in core districts to prevent speculation [9][10]. - The reduction in mortgage rates for second homes is also expected to support demand, particularly from buyers looking for improved living conditions [10].