Group 1 - The market continues to be pressured by ongoing concerns over supply surplus, impacting prices significantly [1] - ICE raw sugar is facing a critical test at 16 cents, with potential for further declines if it breaks below this level [1]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are experiencing a slight decline due to weak demand, policy impacts, and supply expansion, with a notable decrease in gasoline demand during the summer driving peak season [1][2][3] Group 1: Demand Weakness - The summer driving peak season has seen an unexpected decline in gasoline demand, with daily supply dropping by 670,000 barrels to 8.5 million barrels [2][3] - The increase in distillate oil inventory and rising stocks at the key storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, indicate a fundamental weakness in end-user consumption [1][3] - The trade tensions stemming from President Trump's tariff policies have significantly weakened global energy consumption expectations, leading to a chain reaction of deteriorating demand [3][4] Group 2: Policy Impact - The ongoing tariff war has triggered a complex crisis, impacting both demand prospects and increasing market uncertainty through supply chain disruptions [4] - Trump's denial of plans to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell provided a temporary boost to market sentiment, but the Fed's interest rate decisions continue to exert long-term pressure on oil prices [4] - The geopolitical context, including the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has further diminished risk premiums, stripping away price support [4] Group 3: Supply Expansion - Morgan Stanley warns of a potential return to supply surplus after the summer demand peak, indicating that OPEC's production strategies and U.S. capacity expansions are contributing to this trend [2][4] - The expected increase in OECD inventories could reach levels not seen since 2017, which corresponds to Brent crude prices around $65 per barrel, reflecting a dilution of oil's scarcity value [2][4] - The long-term forecast suggests Brent crude prices may stabilize at $60 per barrel by 2026, indicating a trend of devaluation in oil's soft power [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a strong expectation of oversupply in the alumina market, leading to a continued decline in alumina futures [1] - Short-term analysis suggests that due to industry anti-involution and low warehouse support, the downward space for alumina is limited [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and supply dynamics, with a notable focus on Guinea's aluminum oxide company asset inspections and the overall supply-demand balance in the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On July 16, the main aluminum oxide futures contract closed at 3111.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.58% [1]. - The national average spot price for aluminum oxide was reported at 3191 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 5 CNY/ton, while the discount was 99 CNY/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Guinea's aluminum oxide company (GAC) has initiated a comprehensive asset inventory, with government oversight on strategic mining equipment [2]. - The current supply situation remains generally loose, despite localized tightness providing some support for spot prices [3]. - The production capacity of aluminum oxide is steadily increasing, primarily due to the resumption of operations after maintenance, leading to record-high output levels [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - According to Wenguang Futures, there is a mid-term expectation for a price increase, driven by a strong market sentiment and low registered warehouse receipts for aluminum oxide. However, the overcapacity issue persists, anchoring prices to production costs [3]. - Newhu Futures suggests that while there is some upward pressure on prices due to localized supply tightness, the overall expectation of supply surplus remains unchanged, with new production capacity expected in the third quarter [3].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports a rapid increase in global oil inventories in recent months, primarily concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region, which has helped maintain stable oil prices [1] - As of the end of June, global inventories increased by approximately 235 million barrels, with only 10% of this increase occurring in the OECD region, which is crucial for price formation [1] - Despite expectations of oversupply in the coming quarters, the current futures price structure indicates market supply tightness, with near-term prices higher than long-term prices [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley warns that once the summer demand peak ends, oversupply may re-emerge, but only a "small" surplus is expected to reflect in OECD inventories [1] - The firm anticipates that OECD inventories will increase by no more than 165 million barrels over the next 12 months, returning to levels seen in 2017 when Brent crude prices fluctuated around $65 per barrel [1] - The firm forecasts Brent crude prices to remain at $65 per barrel in Q4 and at $60 per barrel for all four quarters of 2026 [2] Group 3 - In the recent inventory increase, non-OECD countries added approximately 100 million barrels, with China alone accounting for 48 million barrels [2] - The amount of oil in floating storage has also increased, adding 106 million barrels [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, the supply surplus situation remains, and the short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 122,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [1][2]. - For the stainless steel market, the market confidence is still insufficient. The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is also to sell hedging on rallies. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,440 yuan/ton and closed at 119,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.15% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 94,219 lots, and the open interest was 62,803 lots. The contract showed a weak shock, and the trading volume and open interest increased compared with the previous trading day. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, and there was still a need for short - term correction. The 117,000 yuan/ton level was estimated to be a strong support in the medium - and long - term [1]. - In the spot market, the morning quotes of Jinchuan nickel and other mainstream brands decreased. The trading sentiment of refined nickel improved, but the supply surplus pattern remained unchanged. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,555 (259.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 206,580 (0) tons [1]. - **Strategy** - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The trading strategy is mainly range trading for single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 12,700 yuan/ton and closed at 12,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 97,583 lots, and the open interest was 93,471 lots. The contract rose first and then fell, and the trading volume and open interest increased due to the contract switch. The expansion speed of the red column area of the daily MACD slowed down, and there was pressure above the 40 - day moving average. The 12,400 yuan/ton level was estimated to be a strong support in the medium - and long - term [2]. - In the spot market, most quotes in the Foshan market remained the same as the previous trading day, and the trading volume did not improve significantly, with insufficient market confidence. The nickel - iron market quotes decreased, and it was expected that the nickel - iron price would be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,800 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,775 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 170 - 370 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to oversupply, with expectations for the second half of the year to focus on short-selling and selling call options [1][8]. Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices fluctuated widely in the first half of the year, reaching a high of 136,000 yuan/ton in Q1 due to tight supply and favorable macro conditions, but fell back in Q2 due to oversupply [1]. - The price dynamics were influenced by various factors, including Indonesia's RKAB quota adjustments and the Philippines' export bans, which significantly impacted market reactions [1][2]. Policy Impact on Supply - Indonesian and Philippine nickel policies aim to increase industry revenue, categorized into "quantity" and "price" controls, with quantity controls having a more direct but challenging implementation [2]. - The likelihood of significant supply cuts is low, as both countries face resistance to drastic measures that could impact production and employment [2]. Production and Cost Trends - Nickel iron costs have risen due to tight supply of high-grade nickel ore, while demand from stainless steel has weakened, leading to price pressures [3][4]. - The production capacity of MHP and high-nickel products continues to expand, but the pace of new project launches may slow due to declining nickel prices [3][4]. Demand Dynamics - Stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of nickel demand, has seen production growth, but overall demand is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and lackluster real estate market performance [6][8]. - The electric vehicle sector, a significant source of nickel demand, is facing challenges as competition increases and the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries rises [7]. Market Outlook - The overall outlook for nickel prices remains bearish, with expectations for seasonal supply increases in Q3 potentially leading to further price declines [8]. - Despite the downward pressure, there may be temporary price increases due to conflicting interests between resource countries and market dynamics [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina futures are expected to be short - term bullish and oscillatory, targeting the key resistance level of 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, the expected continuous release of supply will cap the price. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [14][135]. - Shanghai Aluminium (SHFE Aluminium) is expected to oscillate within the price range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The current industrial fundamentals mainly support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [15][136]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate, restricted by cost support and weak demand [15][136]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Market Overview - **Macro**: Trump announced on July 9 that a 50% tariff would be imposed on all imported copper starting from August 1. Also, on July 7, he declared tariffs on imported products from 14 countries starting from August 1 and postponed the implementation of the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period to August 1 [8]. - **Spot**: As of July 11, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,142.39 yuan/ton, up 26.64 yuan/ton from July 4. As of July 4, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from June 27 [8]. - **Supply**: As of July 10, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 79.92%, down 0.05% from the previous week. China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [8]. - **Demand**: As of July 3, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.6%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The operating rates of the aluminum plate and strip and aluminum cable sectors decreased, while others remained stable [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 10, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,850 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from July 3. As of July 9, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,514 yuan/ton, up about 44 yuan/ton from July 3, mainly due to the increase in alumina price. The average industry profit has narrowed to about 4,145 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the aluminum ingot inventory was 466,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from July 3. The aluminum rod inventory was 160,000 tons, up 6,500 tons from July 3 [10]. - **Overall Market Performance**: This week, alumina, SHFE Aluminium, and aluminum alloy all showed a bullish and oscillatory trend [13]. 2. Alumina Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Spot - The average domestic alumina spot price as of July 11 was 3,142.39 yuan/ton, up 26.64 yuan/ton from July 4. Tightening spot circulation and spot discount transactions led to the rebound of the average spot price [27]. 2.1 Supply - As of July 10, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 79.92%, down 0.05% from the previous week. There is an expectation of future supply surplus due to capacity restart and new capacity release [31]. 2.1 Import and Export - As of July 10, the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton, up nearly 5 US dollars/ton from July 3. The alumina import and export windows are both closed [33]. 2.1 Cost and Profit - As of July 10, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,850 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from July 3. The average industry profit has expanded to about 284 yuan/ton [36]. 2.1 Inventory - As of July 10, the alumina port inventory was 26,000 tons, down 17,000 tons from the previous week, remaining at a low level in the past four years. In May 2025, China's alumina imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year [40]. 3. Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Cost - As of July 11, the pit - mouth coal price in Ordos decreased slightly, while those in Yulin, Datong, and the FOB coal price at Qinhuangdao Port increased. The single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in July dropped to about 0.38 yuan/kWh. The pre - baked anode price in major production areas remained stable this week [48][52]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - As of July 9, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,514 yuan/ton, up about 44 yuan/ton from July 3. The average industry profit has narrowed to about 4,145 yuan/ton [57]. 2.3 Supply - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. As of the end of June, the operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity was 96%, unchanged from the previous month and 0.32% higher than the same period last year [59]. 2.4 Spot - As of July 11, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 20,790 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from July 4 [62]. 2.6 Demand - As of July 3, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.6%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in June was 40.1%, remaining below the boom - bust line and down 8.8% from May [69]. 2.7 Inventory - As of July 10, the aluminum ingot inventory was 466,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from July 3. The aluminum rod inventory was 160,000 tons, up 6,500 tons from July 3. The low inventory of aluminum ingots still supports the price, but the support may weaken during the off - season [73]. 2.8 Futures Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,485 tons, up 4,095 tons from July 4. From July 4 to July 10, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 38,750 tons to 395,725 tons [77]. 2.9 Import and Export - The import profit window for aluminum ingots is closed. In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year, while imports increased year - on - year [79][84]. 2.11 Terminal - The real estate market is slowly recovering. From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 238,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1% compared with the same period in July last year. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market were 135,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21% [88][90]. 4. Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis 4.1 Raw Materials - The price of scrap aluminum has been high. The aluminum scrap - refined aluminum price difference shows certain characteristics [96][98]. 4.2 ADC12 Cost and Profit - The cost of ADC12 aluminum alloy has increased, and the profit situation is affected [100][101]. 4.3 ADC12 Spot Price - The average price of ADC12 shows certain trends, and there are differences in prices in different regions [103][106]. 4.4 Overseas ADC12 Price and Import Profit - The overseas ADC12 price and import profit situation have changed [108][111]. 4.5 Supply - The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy have certain characteristics [113][115]. 4.6 Demand - The demand for cast aluminum alloy has obvious seasonality, and the automotive industry is the main demand end [117][120]. 4.7 Inventory - The inventory of aluminum alloy shows certain trends [128]. 4.8 Supply - Demand Balance - The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy shows certain characteristics [130][131]. 3. Future Outlook - **Alumina**: In the short term, alumina futures are expected to be bullish and oscillatory, targeting 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, the expected increase in supply will cap the price. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [135]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE Aluminium is expected to oscillate within the range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The current industrial fundamentals mainly support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [136]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate, restricted by cost support and weak demand [136].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for fuel oil is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 2948.00 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.23% observed [1] - South China Futures indicates that June's fuel oil exports remain tight, with increased import demand from China and reduced imports from India and the US, leading to stronger overall demand [1] - The market sentiment for fuel oil is generally bearish, with downstream demand releasing slowly and limited support from cost direction [2] Group 2 - OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years in its 2025 outlook report, raising concerns about potential supply surplus [2] - The shipping market is experiencing weak transactions, with just-in-time purchasing and limited support from low prices offered by refineries [2] - Technically, the main contract for fuel oil (FU) is facing resistance around 2980 CNY, while the LU main contract has support near 3600 CNY, indicating a weak oscillation in the short term [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][3][5][6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. OPEC lowered its oil demand growth forecast. OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases from October, which may signal an oversupply risk after the peak demand period. Currently, oil prices are mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to US tariff policies and OPEC+'s actual production increase. The weekly oil price center has slightly risen [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, fuel oil futures prices fell. Singapore and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while high - sulfur fuel oil is under supply pressure. The short - term single - side drivers are not obvious, and it mainly follows the cost - side crude oil to fluctuate within a range [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, asphalt futures prices rose. This week, domestic asphalt shipments increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. The impact of the consumption tax deduction policy adjustment is not obvious, with supply remaining stable and increasing, and demand slowly recovering in the south but hindered by rainfall in the north. The short - term single - side drivers are not obvious, and it mainly follows the cost - side crude oil to fluctuate within a range [3] - **Polyester**: On Thursday, polyester futures prices rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. Some polyester, PTA, and PX devices have restarted or are in the process of restarting. TA spot basis has loosened, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future. There is a strong expectation of ethylene glycol inventory accumulation in the third quarter, and its price is expected to be under pressure [3][5] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, rubber futures prices rose. Indonesia's natural rubber exports increased, while Malaysia's decreased. Domestic tire enterprise start - up loads have recovered, but semi - steel high inventory suppresses start - up. Rubber raw material prices have loosened, and inventory has slightly increased. The fundamentals' contradictions are weak, and rubber prices are expected to be volatile [5] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol prices showed different trends in different regions. Iranian device production is gradually recovering, and although the short - term arrival volume is not large, the long - term arrival volume will increase. The short - term supply shortage situation has eased, the basis has declined, and the price has returned to a volatile trend [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. The upstream is still in the maintenance season, with little change in overall supply. Demand has declined with the arrival of the off - season, and enterprises purchase on demand. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, but the overall contradictions are not large, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with cost changes. With the current low volatility of crude oil, polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC market prices in East, North, and South China increased. Recently, chlor - alkali profits have declined, and enterprise start - up has decreased. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated. As the basis and monthly spread structure change slowly, the arbitrage and hedging space is gradually narrowing. Before the market provides obvious opportunities, short - selling is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on July 10th and 9th, as well as the latest basis rate's quantile in historical data [9] 3.2 Market News - The US will impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods starting from August 1st, and Brazil will negotiate with the US and may take counter - measures if necessary [13] - OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases from October, which may be interpreted as a signal that the market cannot absorb more supply, and there may be an oversupply risk after the peak demand period [13] 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and p - xylene [15][17][19][21][23][25] 3.3.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][30][34][35][36][39][40] 3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [42][44][47][50][53][54][57] 3.3.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, including crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [59][63][64][66] 3.3.5 Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [67][68][70] 3.4 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and related product analyst Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [73][74][75][76]