今年以来，在更加积极有为的宏观政策推动下，我国经济展现出强大活力和韧性。上半年，国内生产总 值同比增长5.3%，内需对经济增长贡献率达68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%，成为增长的主动 力和稳定锚。经济结构持续优化，高技术产业增加值同比增长9.5%。 从经济理论和实践经验看，宏观政策的传导是需要时间的，已实施措施的效果还会进一步显现。与此同 时，中共中央政治局会议强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性"，这意味着未来政策效应将 进一步释放，从而更好巩固宏观经济的回升向好势头。 其一，更加积极的财政政策将进一步增强经济韧性。 今年以来，财政政策综合运用超长期特别国债、政府债券、财政补贴、贷款贴息等工具，通过与其他宏 观政策协同发力，在支持全方位扩大国内需求、畅通经济循环、推进现代化产业体系建设、保障和改善 民生、防范化解地方政府债务风险等领域发挥了十分重要的作用。 此次中共中央政治局会议强调，"加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层'三保'底线"。 未来，随着超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等工具的加快发行和使用，财政政策将在促消费扩内 需、支持传统产业改造提升、促进新兴产业和未来产业发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for sustained and appropriately intensified macroeconomic policies to enhance economic resilience and vitality, with a focus on proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy - The implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy will further enhance economic resilience, utilizing tools such as long-term special government bonds, government bonds, fiscal subsidies, and loan interest subsidies to support domestic demand and economic circulation [2] - The meeting highlighted the need to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve fund efficiency and ensure the basic livelihood of local governments [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy will further enhance economic vitality, with measures taken to ensure ample liquidity and lower financing costs for the economy [3] - The meeting emphasized the continued use of structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade [3] Group 3: Capital Market - The trend of stabilization and improvement in the capital market is expected to continue, supported by strong policy signals and measures to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market [4] - The ongoing macroeconomic policies will create a solid foundation for the stable operation of the capital market, reinforcing the upward momentum of the economy [4]

今年以来，我国货币政策根据形势变化相机抉择，节奏和力度适时适度，在推动扩大国内需求、稳定社 会预期、激发市场活力，支持实现全年经济社会发展目标和任务方面发挥了巨大作用。 今年以来，在更加积极有为的宏观政策推动下，我国经济展现出强大活力和韧性。上半年，国内生产总 值同比增长5.3%，内需对经济增长贡献率达68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%，成为增长的主动 力和稳定锚。经济结构持续优化，高技术产业增加值同比增长9.5%。 从经济理论和实践经验看，宏观政策的传导是需要时间的，已实施措施的效果还会进一步显现。与此同 时，中共中央政治局会议强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性"，这意味着未来政策效应将 进一步释放，从而更好巩固宏观经济的回升向好势头。 其一，更加积极的财政政策将进一步增强经济韧性。 今年以来，财政政策综合运用超长期特别国债、政府债券、财政补贴、贷款贴息等工具，通过与其他宏 观政策协同发力，在支持全方位扩大国内需求、畅通经济循环、推进现代化产业体系建设、保障和改善 民生、防范化解地方政府债务风险等领域发挥了十分重要的作用。 此次中共中央政治局会议强调，"加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuation of a stable yet progressive macroeconomic policy, focusing on maintaining policy stability while enhancing flexibility and timely adjustments to stimulate economic recovery [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy aims for detailed implementation, emphasizing structural optimization, with a focus on enhancing social welfare and targeted spending for specific groups [4]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of long-term special bonds, with net financing reaching 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4]. Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential interest rate cuts to lower overall financing costs for society [5]. - The central bank has already implemented a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio reduction, with further easing expected [5]. Industry Policy - The industry policy focuses on fostering technological innovation and promoting healthy competition, with an emphasis on emerging industries and strategic sectors [6][8]. - Key areas for support include quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology, with a push for collaboration between research institutions and enterprises [6]. Real Estate Policy - The real estate policy highlights the importance of high-quality urban renewal and managing local government debt risks, with a focus on stabilizing the housing market [9]. - Recent data shows a decline in property sales, with June's sales area and revenue down by 5.5% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively [9]. Domestic Demand Expansion - The strategy for expanding domestic demand involves enhancing both consumption scenarios and consumer capacity, with potential policies to optimize social security contributions and tax structures [11][12]. - Recent retail sales data indicates a 4.8% year-on-year growth, but a decline in consumer confidence remains a concern [11]. Employment and Social Welfare - The employment policy prioritizes job creation for key demographics, including recent graduates and migrant workers, while ensuring social safety nets are in place [13]. - The approach combines development with safety nets to stabilize society and rebuild consumer confidence [13]. Capital Market - The capital market is encouraged to enhance its attractiveness and inclusivity, with recent positive performance in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [14]. - The government has introduced various supportive measures to stabilize and invigorate the capital market, including optimizing monetary policy tools [14]. High-Level Opening Up - The policy aims to maintain a stable foundation for foreign trade and investment, with measures to support foreign trade enterprises and promote integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [15]. - The focus is on enhancing the resilience of enterprises and the support capabilities of open platforms in a complex external environment [15].

政策连续，兼顾长短 [Table_Authors] 黄汝南(分析师) ——2025 年 7 月政治局会议点评 本报告导读： 政策依旧留有后手，密切关注外部风险可能的反复和国内基本面的变化，以及"十五 五"规划中确定性的产业线索。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定 2025 年 10 月召开中共 四中全会，研究制定"十五五"规划的建议，并分析研究当前经济形 势和部署下半年经济工作。总的来看有三个特征：一是对内外部形 势的判断相较 4 月政治局会议更加积极；二是强调政策连续性，下 半年有望迎来"适时加力"的窗口期；三是适逢"十五五"规划起草在 即，政策兼顾短期稳增长和长期促改革。与 2020 年 7 月政治局会 议对"十四五"的相关表述相比，亮点是增加了"推动人的全面发展、 全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐"的表述，这与此前强调的"投资于 人"一脉相承。 从对下半年工作的具体部署来看，有以下几个亮点： huangrunan@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880523080001 证 券 研 究 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.30 20 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that China's economy is showing steady progress with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, surpassing the annual target [4][5] - The meeting emphasized the need for continuous and stable macro policies, focusing on the effective implementation of existing policies to support economic development [4][5] - There is a strong emphasis on expanding domestic demand, with initiatives to boost consumption and high-quality investment in key projects [4][5] Group 2 - The report indicates a commitment to technological innovation as a driver for new productive forces, aiming to enhance the core position of China's industries in the global supply chain [4][5] - The governance of market competition is highlighted, with a focus on regulating disorderly competition and managing capacity in key industries [5] - The report suggests that the capital market will maintain a positive trend, with reforms aimed at enhancing its attractiveness and inclusivity [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the positive evaluation of the current economic situation by the Political Bureau meeting, highlighting the need for continuous macroeconomic policy support and the importance of balancing economic recovery with structural adjustments [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Political Bureau meeting assessed the economy as stable with positive indicators, while acknowledging ongoing risks and challenges, particularly from external environments and domestic structural issues [1][2][3]. - The meeting set the tone for the second half of the year, indicating a likely "timely increase" in policy support, with a focus on both short-term growth and long-term reforms [2][4]. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting stressed the need for continuity, stability, flexibility, and foresight in macroeconomic policies, with an emphasis on "sustained efforts and timely increases" in fiscal and monetary policies [4][7][8]. - There is a shift in focus from "using well" to "implementing and refining" existing policies, indicating a more cautious approach to new stimulus measures [8][17]. Capital Market - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in the market [6][12][19]. - The capital market is expected to benefit from the overall economic stability and supportive policies, with a positive outlook for equity markets [10][14]. Structural Reforms - The meeting called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and improving market competition order, while also addressing issues of excessive competition and local government debt risks [5][11][20]. - There is a focus on promoting high-quality development and technological innovation, with an emphasis on nurturing new growth drivers [7][21]. Consumer and Investment Policies - The meeting underscored the need to expand consumption and stabilize investment, with a particular focus on service consumption as a new growth point [12][24]. - Policies will continue to support small and micro enterprises, stabilize foreign trade, and enhance the overall economic environment [22][24].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.3%, slightly down but still above the critical point; medium enterprises have a PMI of 49.5%, up by 0.9 percentage points but below the critical point; small enterprises have a PMI of 46.4%, down by 0.9 percentage points and below the critical point [1] - The production index is at 50.5%, down by 0.5 percentage points but still indicates expansion; the new orders index is at 40.4%, down by 0.8 percentage points, showing a slowdown in market demand [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for July is 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points but still above the critical point; the construction index is at 50.6%, down by 2.2 percentage points, while the service index is at 50.0%, down by 0.1 percentage points [2] - The CD index is at 45.7%, down by 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing market demand [2] - The comprehensive PMI output is at 50.2%, down by 0.5 percentage points but still indicates overall expansion in business activities [2] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to address internal and external shocks [3][4] - The meeting highlighted the need for proactive measures to stimulate domestic demand, with final consumption contributing 52% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [4] - The meeting also pointed out the importance of deepening reforms and fostering technological innovation to develop new competitive industries [5] Group 4: Capital Market - The meeting stressed enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, with a focus on improving the quality of listed companies to attract investments [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown positive momentum, surpassing key levels of 3500 and 3600 points since April [6] - There is an expectation for a long-term bullish trend in the capital market, driven by increased investment from institutional investors and the inclusion of innovative companies in the market [6]

每日市场观察 2025 年 7 月 31 日 【今日关注】 周三沪指早盘走高午后回落；深成指和创业板指数开盘后就显露颓势， 午后一度加速回落。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.17%，深成指跌 0.77%，创业 板指数跌 1.62%。板块方面，采掘、船舶制造、旅游酒店、食品饮料、 商业百货、文化传媒、医药商业、石油、钢铁、农业等涨幅居前；电池、 多元金融、小金属、工程机械、电源设备、软件开发、电机、光伏设备 等板块调整明显。两市涨少跌多，其中上涨股票 1662 只，下跌股票数 量 3412 只；沪深两市总成交金额超 1.84 万亿，环比有所放大。 市场自 6 月 24 日以来持续震荡上扬，尤其是创业板个股短线涨幅较大， 累积了不小获利盘。越向上行，资金就越恐高，叠加日线及小时级别指 标持续高位钝化，获利为安的心态使得盘面稍显疲弱就会导致有资金流 出。然而从盘面来看，权重板块依然力挺股指，股指长期趋势保持良好， 强势调整是为了后面更好更持续的上攻。当下的调整仅仅是修正日线级 别指标，空间较为有限。投资者没有必要单纯因为短线涨幅就恐慌离场， 须知强势行情中最可惜的就是降低仓位。 的优质标的可待充分调整后再度关注，这样既降低了 ...

来源：国泰海通证券研究 导读 政策依旧留有后手，密切关注外部风险可能的反复和国内基本面的变化，以及"十五五"规划中确定性的产业线索。 投资要点 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定2025年10月召开中共四中全会，研究制定"十五五"规划的建议，并分析研究当前经济形势和部署下半年经济工 作。总的来看有三个特征：一是对内外部形势的判断相较4月政治局会议更加积极；二是强调政策连续性，下半年有望迎来"适时加力"的窗口期；三是适 逢"十五五"规划起草在即，政策兼顾短期稳增长和长期促改革。与2020年7月政治局会议对"十四五"的相关表述相比，亮点是增加了"推动人的全面发展、 全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐"的表述，这与此前强调的"投资于人"一脉相承。 从对下半年工作的具体部署来看，有以下几个亮点： 第一，对财政和货币政策的要求从"用好用足"转变为"落实落细"，"充分释放政策效应"。财政政策方面，会议要求"提高资金使用效率"；货币政策方面， 则要求"用好各项结构性货币政策工具"。在二季度各项宏观政策已经在加速落实的背景下，下半年将更加关注政策效果。 第二，"反内卷"淡化"低价"，置于全国统一大市场建设的总体布局之中。与中央 ...