Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500 index, is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, strong second-quarter earnings, and robust economic performance, despite warnings of underlying risks from Morgan Stanley [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has achieved its 17th closing high of the year, reflecting a strong market performance [1]. - As of the latest close, the Dow Jones increased by 463.66 points (1.04%), the Nasdaq rose by 31.24 points (0.14%), and the S&P 500 gained 20.82 points (0.32%) [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 index has risen over 8% year-to-date, supported by better-than-expected earnings and ongoing interest in artificial intelligence [3]. - However, concerns are growing regarding the cooling labor market, with only 73,000 new non-farm jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 105,000 [4][5]. Group 3: Earnings Analysis - Despite a strong earnings season, with over 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations, only the technology, communication services, and financial sectors showed double-digit growth [6]. - The report highlights that while the "Magnificent Seven" companies are projected to see a 26% profit growth, the remaining 493 companies have shown almost no growth year-over-year [6]. Group 4: Inflation and Economic Risks - Morgan Stanley warns of potential "stagflation" risks, with rising inflation concerns due to ongoing trade tensions and increased tariffs, which could impact economic stability [6][7]. - The effective tariff rate is expected to rise to nearly 18%, almost double the previous level of 10%, raising concerns about future economic conditions [7]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Morgan Stanley advises investors to diversify their portfolios by increasing exposure to tangible assets such as gold, real estate investment trusts, and energy infrastructure [7]. - The firm also recommends investing in medium to long-term investment-grade bonds, international stocks including emerging markets, and alternative investments like hedge funds and private equity to mitigate risks [7].

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - International gold prices have maintained a high level of fluctuation after reaching a historical high, with support around $3200 per ounce [1] - The upward momentum for gold prices is contingent on additional positive factors, while previous drivers such as central bank purchases and investment demand are losing marginal effectiveness [1] - The ongoing de-dollarization process, frequent geopolitical crises, and a declining dollar exchange rate are preventing significant downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. is increasing, with second-quarter economic growth primarily correcting distortions from the first quarter rather than indicating strengthened growth momentum [2] - Private domestic sales growth slowed to 1.2% in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first quarter, marking the slowest growth in domestic demand since Q4 2022 [2] - Employment data shows a significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with July's figures at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, and a downward revision of previous months' data [2] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Prices - The impact of tariffs on U.S. prices has raised inflation concerns, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [3] - The increase in effective tax rates has further escalated inflation rates in import-intensive categories such as furniture and clothing [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Following the release of July's employment data, some Federal Reserve policymakers are leaning towards a dovish stance, with discussions of potential rate cuts [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is at 94.1%, with a 62.4% chance of a 50 basis point cut by October [4] - Increased demand for gold investments has been observed, with holdings in the SPDR Gold ETF rising to 964.2 tons, surpassing previous records [4] Group 5: Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand in Q2 increased by 3% year-on-year to 1248.8 tons, with investment demand remaining stable despite a decline in physical demand due to rising gold prices [5] - Investment demand for gold reached 477.2 tons in Q2, a 78% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in gold bars and coins [5] - In July, there was a further inflow of $3.2 billion into physically-backed gold ETFs [5] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity Risks - The U.S. Treasury has issued approximately $328 billion in short-term debt since raising the debt ceiling, which could drain liquidity from the financial system [6] - The cash balance in the Treasury General Account is expected to rise significantly, potentially impacting bank reserves and increasing the risk of dollar liquidity issues [6] - A decline in the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements may lead to pressure in the financing market [6]

还在被美联储摇摆不定的 "加息降息" 言论绕晕？市场风向已悄然转变！曾经被各种 "口头干预" 搅动的 "政策噪音" 正逐渐退居幕后，取而代之的，是所有投资者都看得见、摸得着的硬核经济数据。随着美 国最新的核心通胀数据再次超预期，一场围绕着 "通胀" 的交易主线正重新夺回主导权！ 改变就在一瞬间！美国发布的关键 CPI、PCE 通胀指标连续超预期，终于让所有人认清现实：通胀比想 象得更顽固！ 一、政策噪音曾让黄金 "晕了头" 回想半年多前，市场焦点都在美联储官员们反复无常的 "通胀即将下降"、"加息周期已结束" 等口头表 态中不停打转。这些言论看似关键，却让市场波动变得难以捉摸： 预期差游戏： 市场不断预判美联储态度变化，稍有风吹草动就引发大起大落。 "狼来了" 效应： 多次 "转向" 暗示最终未兑现，政策信号可信度大打折扣。 短视交易盛行： 投资者被迫追逐 "短平快"，黄金这类长期资产也沦为 "消息刺激" 工具，偏离其固有价 值逻辑。 总结：美联储 "口头预期管理" 成了市场噪音源，黄金波动加剧但难有方向。 二、数据主线归来：通胀数据决定黄金命运 最新事实： 6 月美国核心 CPI 同比增长 3.8%，远超市 ...

亢奋的市场情绪 "市场情绪意外看涨，简直像在说'关税算什么，谁在乎？'"Premier Miton Investors首席投资官尼尔·伯雷 尔（Neil Birrell）表示，"股市对当前经济现实有种脱节感，空气中弥漫着一股乐观或亢奋的情绪。" 周二美国温和的通胀报告消除了市场对滞胀的担忧，也为美联储降息扫除了障碍，此后全球投资者纷纷 涌入风险最高的资产。 股市飙升至历史新高，小盘股、新兴市场和半导体板块延续涨势。尽管特朗普的关税政策可能扰乱全球 贸易，但隐含波动率指标大幅下降。加密货币涨势也在扩大，以太坊过去一个月累计上涨55%。迷因股 也再度走红。 这些走势凸显了过去几个月强劲的乐观情绪。对即将到来的贸易战的担忧曾在4月份引发抛售，但现在 已经让位于对经济能够继续强劲增长的信心。最新一轮涨势的动力来自美联储即将降息的新希望。 这在很大程度上得益于强劲的盈利缓解了市场对这些公司在人工智能上过度支出的担忧。德意志银行策 略师分析显示，大型科技股几乎独力推动了二季度盈利增长，贡献了标普500指数整体利润增幅的 90%。 彭博策略师马克·卡德莫尔（Mark Cudmore）认为，"跟这轮股市涨势作对是愚蠢的，即便 ...

美国劳工部12日发布的最新报告显示，7月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，继续保持6月的涨幅；而剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月核 心CPI同比上涨3.1%，高于6月的2.9%。 在很多媒体和专家看来，自4月起连续反弹的通胀数据表明，美国政府的关税政策对物价的拉升效应正在越来越全面地显现出来。 △《纽约时报》报道截图 关税成本由谁"消化"？ 继对多国加征钢铝和汽车关税以及10%的普遍基准关税后，美国政府最初于4月宣布并在随后几经延期的"对等关税"也于本月7日正式生效。 世界贸易组织（WTO）和国际货币基金组织（IMF）8日公布的数据显示，随着新关税的实施，美国对全球所有产品的贸易加权平均关税税率已达20.1%， 大幅高于年初本届美国政府上台前的2.4%，为110多年来的最高水平。 △新加坡亚洲新闻台报道截图 尽管美国政府一再声称加征关税是为了让那些"占美国便宜"的贸易伙伴买单，但种种分析数据都显示，实际税负已被逐渐转嫁至美国国内。 从供给侧看，美国国家零售联合会（NRF）日前发布报告预计，美国今年全年进口量将比去年下降5.6%。 NRF副总裁戈尔德警告称，受关税影响，未来美国市场上的商品种类将 ...

Group 1: Inflation and Consumer Prices - The latest report from the U.S. Labor Department indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, maintaining the same increase as in June. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.1%, up from 2.9% in June [1] - Analysts suggest that the inflation data, which has been rebounding since April, reflects the increasing impact of the U.S. government's tariff policies on prices [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact on Trade - Following the imposition of tariffs on various countries, the U.S. government's trade-weighted average tariff rate has reached 20.1%, significantly higher than the 2.4% before the current administration took office, marking the highest level in over 110 years [4] - The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a 5.6% decline in U.S. import volumes for the year, indicating a reduction in the variety of goods available in the U.S. market due to tariffs [6] Group 3: Consumer Price Burden - Goldman Sachs reports that consumers have already absorbed about 22% of the tariff costs as of the end of June, with this figure potentially rising to 67% if the tariff policies continue [7] - High inflation levels are expected to persist, with projections indicating that the overall CPI and core CPI will rise to 2.9% and 3.3% year-on-year, respectively, by the end of the year [11] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Employment - The Yale University Budget Lab estimates that the tariffs will lead to a short-term price increase of 1.8%, costing the average American household approximately $2,400 this year. The report highlights significant price hikes in imported goods, particularly footwear and clothing, projected to rise by 39% and 37%, respectively [15] - The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 4.2% in July, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, far below expectations. This trend indicates a cooling labor market, with over half of industries reportedly starting layoffs due to rising costs from tariffs [18][20]

Group 1 - Allianz Investment highlights investment opportunities in local currency bonds in emerging markets, particularly in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, due to attractive spreads and reliable monetary policy trajectories [1] - The firm shows a slight preference for high-yield bonds over investment-grade bonds in Asian credit markets and plans to increase risk investments amid market sentiment-driven sell-offs [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.50% aligns with market expectations, while the European Central Bank's decision to keep rates unchanged also meets market forecasts [1] Group 2 - Economic growth and inflation conditions support a patient policy stance, with increasing dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee and pressure from the Trump administration for rate cuts [2] - The bond market anticipates two rate cuts by the end of the year, especially if inflation does not rise significantly, with potential cuts expected in September or October [2] - Allianz Investment believes the current macro and policy environment favors a steepening of the U.S. yield curve, suggesting an increase in investments in inflation-linked securities due to risks of rising inflation and threats to Federal Reserve independence [2] Group 3 - In the credit spread sector, U.S. and Eurozone corporate credit spreads appear to be narrowing, but strong company fundamentals and favorable default outlooks continue to make this asset class attractive [3] - The primary bond market is active on both sides of the Atlantic, with strong trading demand and several new bond issuances, including a rebound in European commercial mortgage-backed securities [3] - Performance disparities are noted between U.S. and European airlines, with U.S. airlines reporting a rebound in premium passenger volumes while European airlines show weaker data and earnings guidance [3] Group 4 - Allianz Investment emphasizes that bond portfolio allocation should consider various factors beyond just rate cuts, including the interplay of monetary, trade, and fiscal policies [4] - Fiscal imbalances are expected to push up long-term yields, while the complex interactions of monetary and trade policies may affect short-term rates [4] - Trade agreements between the U.S. and various partners could help mitigate stagflation, potentially providing the Federal Reserve with room to restart the rate-cutting cycle, benefiting interest rates and credit markets [4]

Inflation Data Overview - In July, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value and slightly below the expected 2.8%[3] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, consistent with expectations but down from 0.3% in June[3] - Core CPI rose to 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3% and up from 2.9% in June[3] Market Reactions and Expectations - The underwhelming CPI data has led the market to anticipate a rate cut in September, with a positive response in both stock and bond markets[4] - Despite favorable conditions for a rate cut, inflation expectations remain a concern, and the Federal Reserve's stance is expected to be cautious[5] Key Influencing Factors - Energy prices fell significantly, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, down from a 0.9% increase in June, while food prices remained stable at 0%[5] - Core CPI's increase was driven by rising costs in services, particularly in transportation, which saw a month-on-month increase of 0.8%[7] Automotive Market Insights - The automotive sector showed strong performance, with new and used car prices rising significantly, driven by consumer demand ahead of the expiration of tax credits for electric vehicles[6] - Approximately 130,000 new electric vehicles were sold in July, marking a 26.4% month-on-month increase, the second-highest monthly sales on record[7] Service Sector Trends - Housing costs are stabilizing, but other core services are experiencing robust price increases, particularly in transportation services, which surged by 4% month-on-month[7] - The super core CPI, excluding housing, reached its highest level of the year, indicating strong consumer demand in various service sectors[7] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include significant changes in U.S. trade policies and unexpected tariff increases that could lead to a global economic slowdown[8]

北京时间8月12日晚8点，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国7月消费者物价指数(CPI)同比上涨2.7%，前值为2.7%，预期为2.8%；环比上涨0.2%，预 期为0.2%，前值为0.3%。 芝商所的"美联储观察"工具显示，美联储在9月降息25个基点的概率达到90.1%，到10月累计降息50个基点的概率为62.5%。 掉期交易显示，投资者押注美联储在今年年底前将进行两次25个基点的降息。更有一些投资者押注美联储会在9月大幅降息50个基点。而在降息预期的推 动下，美债收益率已降至4月底以来的最低水平。 CPI数据公布后，美国国债收益率短线下挫，2年期国债收益率下行近5个基点；美元指数短线走低，日内跌0.3%。现货黄金短线飙升至3354美元/盎司高点 后大幅回落，现报3349美元/盎司。 富国银行认为，价格调整过程仍处于早期阶段，仍需观察更高的进口税最终将如何在最终客户、国内卖家和外国出口商之间分配。通胀预计将在今年下半 年回升，但不会大幅走高，核心CPI和核心PCE平减指数在第四季度将恢复到3%左右。 目前，交易员加大9月降息押注。 上周，在美国就业市场走弱的迹象出现后，市场对9月降息的预期就开始升温。 美国劳 ...

今晚美国率先公布本周的重磅指引——美国7月CPI，由于零售商逐步提高各种受进口关税上调影响的商品价格，预计物价压力进一步上升，市场预期CPI年 率为2.8%（前值2.7%），CPI月率预计0.3%（前值0.2%），核心CPI年率预计达到3%（前值2.9%），意味着通胀可能录得今年年初以来的最大涨幅，但汽油 价格下跌可能有助于缓和整体物价上涨压力。 值得关注的是，本次的数据是自本月初美国总统因就业报告低迷而下令解雇美国劳工统计局局长埃里卡·麦肯塔弗以来，首次公布的CPI报告，而当前投资者 依然存在政府统计数据可能削弱信心的担忧。 尽管与关税相关的价格上涨越来越明显，但美国消费者6月份仍继续支出，但是这可能受到进一步物价压力的影响。受关税上调影响最大的商品价格在6月份 有所回升，但整体通胀率仍然相对低迷。随着贸易关税的影响开始显现，华尔街策略师发出警告称，美国经济正走向滞胀，这可能会限制美联储降息的能 力。 上周公布的纽约联邦储备银行的月度调查显示，7月份美国消费者通胀预期上升，就业市场看法改善。未来一年的预期通胀率从6月份的3%小幅升至3.1%。 未来三年的预期通胀率稳定在3%，而未来五年的预期通胀率则跃升至2 ...