以下文章来源于巴顿比格斯 ，作者巴顿比格斯 巴顿比格斯 . 历史不会重复，但是它自然成韵。 文 | 巴顿比格斯 来源 | 巴顿比格斯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期沪银期货价格创上市以来新高，国际白银ETF连续增仓的情况下，欧美降息预期抬升、叠加宏观市场情绪转暖预期提振白银工业 属性，沪银表现强于黄金、金银比小幅修复。 此前黄金屡创新高，白银被低估，金银比一度逼近105（历史均值60-80），随着避险情绪升温，白银成为"价值洼地"，资金涌入推动 其补涨，金银比回落至90。全球最大白银ETF持仓量持续增加，CFTC（美国商品期货交易委员会）净多头持仓攀升，显示出资金对 白银强烈的看涨情绪。 2025年全球货币体系发生深刻变化，美元霸权遭遇挑战。特朗普政府的一系列政策，如强推制造业回流、关税壁垒等，导致全球美元 回流美国，美元流动性减少，且面临 "特里芬难题" 升级版，即美联储在加息抑制通胀与降息刺激经济维持贸易逆差之间两难抉择， 这削弱了美元信用。 投资者对美元信心下降，转而寻求其他避险资产，白银作为传统的避险资产之一，受到投资者青睐。全球政治经济不确定性增加，如 地缘政治冲突、贸易政策不稳定等， ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the internal chaos in the U.S., particularly in Los Angeles and New York, as a result of the current administration's actions, which are turning communities into "war zones" and prompting military intervention [1][22][26] - The U.S. is facing a decline in its global dominance due to the current administration's policies, which are undermining the strength of the dollar and the military, leading to a loss of credibility and trust among allies [3][10][11] - The imposition of tariffs by the current administration has not only harmed international trade but has also negatively impacted the U.S. economy, with allies distancing themselves and the credibility of the U.S. being severely affected [5][9][10] Group 2 - The article highlights the ongoing conflict between state and federal authorities, exemplified by the protests in Los Angeles against immigration enforcement, which reflect deeper societal fractures in the U.S. [22][26][29] - The current administration's attacks on prestigious institutions like Harvard are seen as detrimental to the U.S.'s global competitiveness, as these institutions are crucial for innovation and talent acquisition [15][20] - The article suggests that the current administration's actions are leading to increased political division, particularly between the Democratic and Republican parties, exacerbating tensions within the country [28][29][31]

Group 1 - The rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by over 6 basis points and the 30-year yield surpassing 5% signals a looming economic crisis in the U.S. with a staggering $36 trillion in debt at risk of collapse [1] - Major credit rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. credit rating, with Moody's lowering it from "Aaa" to "Aa1" in May 2024, citing excessive government debt and interest burdens [3] - The U.S. federal debt reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 124% of GDP, with projections indicating it could rise to 134% by 2035, alongside a fiscal deficit of $2.1 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year [3] Group 2 - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating triggered significant market reactions, with major stock indices falling, including a 1.49% drop in Nasdaq futures and a 4% pre-market decline for Tesla [4] - Investors reacted by selling off U.S. Treasuries, leading to a spike in the 30-year Treasury yield above 5% and the 10-year yield exceeding 4.5% [4] - The dollar index fell by 0.8%, while gold prices surged, with COMEX gold futures rising over 2% [4] Group 3 - Financial leaders, including JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon, warned that extreme fiscal policies could lead to a crisis in the U.S. debt market, labeling the rising government debt as the "biggest risk" to the macroeconomy [6][7] - The potential collapse of U.S. Treasuries could create a dilemma for the government, as increasing taxes or cutting fiscal support would be challenging [7] - Trump's urgent desire to communicate with China is seen as an attempt to alleviate U.S. financial pressures, as China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. debt, now down to $765.4 billion [7][9] Group 4 - Despite some progress in U.S.-China negotiations, significant differences remain, with the U.S. imposing restrictions on China, complicating the potential for dialogue [9] - The crisis surrounding the $36 trillion U.S. debt is not only a domestic issue but poses a significant challenge to the global economy, indicating a potential shift in the global economic landscape [9]

Core Viewpoint - The current international monetary system is undergoing profound changes due to the long-term disorderly expansion of U.S. public debt, the "weaponization" of the dollar during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and various policy proposals during the Trump 2.0 era, which erode the credibility of the dollar as the world's reserve currency [2]. Group 1: Triffin Dilemma Misinterpretations - The "Triffin Dilemma" has evolved into two versions post-Bretton Woods: one concerning the current account and the other regarding "safe assets," both of which contain significant misunderstandings [4][13]. - Misconceptions include confusing net capital with total capital inflows, mixing "earned" and "borrowed" foreign exchange reserves, and conflating bilateral with multilateral capital flows [17][19][20]. - The supply of dollar liquidity is not necessarily linked to the U.S. current account deficit, as the U.S. maintained a current account surplus for about 30 years after becoming the primary reserve currency [14][21]. Group 2: U.S. Stocks as Safe Assets - Overseas funds have shifted from U.S. Treasury bonds to U.S. stocks, leading to the disappearance of the equity risk premium in the S&P 500, indicating that investors now view U.S. stocks as safe assets [5][23]. - This shift is driven by declining safety perceptions of U.S. debt and the stable long-term growth of U.S. stocks, with significant capital inflows into the U.S. stock market [26][30]. Group 3: U.S. Reserve Currency Status - The U.S. is unlikely to relinquish its status as the world's reserve currency due to the substantial benefits it provides, including the international seigniorage revenue [6][32]. - The unique asset-liability structure of the U.S. allows it to benefit from dollar depreciation, effectively transferring payment burdens globally [36][39]. Group 4: Declining Economic Share vs. Rising Financial Dominance - While the U.S. share of the real economy is declining, its share in international finance is increasing, primarily due to the offshore dollar being the most important financing currency and onshore dollars being viewed as safe assets [7][40][44]. - The expansion of cross-border capital flows has outpaced trade growth, reinforcing the dollar's financial position [46]. Group 5: Dollar Cycles - The dollar exhibits cyclical characteristics influenced by fundamentals, policies, and capital flows, with positive feedback mechanisms amplifying these cycles [8][48][52]. - The dollar's appreciation impacts global economies asymmetrically, benefiting the U.S. while constraining other economies [53]. Group 6: The Dollar's Global Impact - The U.S. often emerges unscathed from global crises, with the adverse effects disproportionately affecting non-U.S. economies due to the asymmetrical impact of U.S. monetary policy [56][58]. - The dollar's status as a reserve currency provides the U.S. with unique advantages, including lower financing costs and the ability to conduct fiscal stimulus without immediate repayment pressures [57]. Group 7: Need for an International Monetary System - The current trend towards a multi-polar world raises questions about the necessity of an international monetary system, with the dollar still playing a central role in global trade and finance [62][63]. - A multi-currency system may be preferable to a non-system, as it allows for currency competition and provides space for emerging currencies like the renminbi [64]. Group 8: Transitioning to a Multi-Currency System - Transitioning from a dollar-centric system to a multi-currency system requires policy coordination among major currency issuers and flexible exchange rate arrangements [11][65].

Core Points - The U.S. is pressuring India to distance itself from BRICS in exchange for a trade agreement, highlighting a shift in diplomatic tactics [1][3] - The U.S. sees India as a crucial player in its Indo-Pacific strategy, aiming to weaken China's influence by leveraging India's position [3][5] - India's reliance on Chinese manufacturing is significant, with a projected 37% increase in imports of Chinese machinery and electrical products in 2024 [5] - The U.S. demands include opening India's agricultural market to American soybeans and threatening military supply chains, particularly for F-21 fighter jet parts [7] - India is strategically delaying its response to U.S. demands while strengthening ties with Russia and exploring alternative currency agreements with the Middle East [9] - China's response to the situation has been measured, with support for India through infrastructure loans, contrasting with U.S. tactics [10] - Internal divisions in India are evident, with public sentiment largely against U.S. economic pressure and protests against American agricultural imports [12] - Global reactions to U.S. pressure include support for BRICS from other nations, indicating a broader resistance to U.S. hegemony [14] Summary by Sections U.S.-India Relations - The U.S. Commerce Secretary's visit to India was marked by a stark warning to sever ties with BRICS for a trade deal [1] - The U.S. initially expected compliance from 75 countries regarding tariffs but faced resistance, particularly from India [3] Economic Implications - The U.S. is pushing for India to open its agricultural market, which could significantly impact local farmers [7] - India's imports from China are expected to rise sharply, indicating a complex economic interdependence [5] Strategic Maneuvering - India is employing a strategy of delay while seeking to strengthen its energy ties with Russia and explore alternative economic frameworks [9] - China's support for India through financial means contrasts with U.S. pressure tactics, showcasing a different diplomatic approach [10] Domestic Sentiment - There is significant public backlash in India against U.S. economic policies, with protests emerging against American agricultural imports [12] - The internal political landscape in India is divided, with strong opposition to U.S. influence and calls for maintaining BRICS membership [12] Global Context - Other BRICS nations are rallying against U.S. pressure, indicating a potential shift in global power dynamics [14]

当"借债成瘾"的邻居再次敲门时，中国这次选择了锁紧钱袋。这个将国债钟摆调至38万亿美元的庞然大物，正用美元霸权的手术刀划破全球信用体系。从 2008年金融危机到2025年债务上限谈判，华盛顿政客们在国会山上演全武行，两党为军费福利撕扯体面，最终以"给气球打气"的方式将债务上限提升至38万 亿美元。这种饮鸩止渴的玩法，让国际投资者用脚投票——美债收益率从3%飙升至4.5%，日元英镑连续12个月抛售美债，华尔街的债务游戏正在演变为全 球金融体系的慢性中毒。 面对这场精心编排的"狼来了"戏码，中国早已备好三道防火墙。第一道是黄金铸就的诺亚方舟：两年间日均增持3吨黄金，总储备突破7377万盎司，足以铺 满三个鸟巢体育场的金色盾牌，将外汇储备中黄金占比从3.19%提升至5.36%。第二道防线是人民币国际化闪电战：东南亚菜市场扫码支付、俄罗斯石油管 回望2008年的救援往事，中国曾以4万亿外汇储备换来的是贸易战清单和技术封锁黑名单。今天北京金融街上的决策者们深谙：国际金融体系从不庇护"善意 债权人"，只有铸币权与黄金储备构筑的护城河才能赢得对等对话。当美联储印钞机轰鸣着收割全球铸币税，当华盛顿政客把国债当作政治筹码，中国 ...

北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）6月6日，在"2025中银全球走进昌平——融通世界·智启未来"活动上，中银证券首席 经济学家徐高阐述了其对于当前中国经济形势的观点及未来展望。 近期中美经贸高层互动释放积极信号，但贸易战的深层矛盾与影响仍在持续发酵。徐高指出，特朗普政府发起贸易战的 根本目标在于压缩美国巨额贸易逆差，其逻辑是将制造业岗位流失归咎于贸易伙伴。然而，历史数据揭示了一个关键矛 盾：美国的贸易赤字问题早在20世纪80年代就已凸显，远早于中国深度融入全球贸易体系，将赤字主因归于中国缺乏充 分依据。 值得注意的是，中国拥有显著的内部缓冲空间。徐高表示，近年来经济下行压力主要源于国内周期性因素，特别是房地 产市场的调整。目前，一系列稳地产政策已开始显现效果。只要房地产市场逐步企稳，国内巨大的内需潜力足以缓冲外 需走弱的影响。中国作为内需潜力远未充分释放的大型经济体，在政策刺激方面拥有广阔的回旋余地。 面对这场由美方挑起的贸易摩擦，中国需做好"持久战"的心理与战略准备。"中美之间正在进行'懦夫博弈'，狭路相逢勇 者胜，'下策'绝不可能被接受。"徐高强调，基于过往交锋经验，对特朗普政府的极限施压策略采取退让姿态 ...

先说个扎心的事实：美国现在每天光利息就得烧掉27亿美元，这还不算本金。你没听错，光是利息钱就能压垮华盛顿那帮人。去年日本还攥着1.1万亿美元 美债，结果上个月直接甩卖了500亿，搞得美债利率一晚上窜高20个点。连日本都开始跑路了，你觉得中国会傻到去接盘？这不是"农夫与蛇"的故事，是"东 郭先生救狼"的翻版。 美债曾经是全球金融市场的"定海神针"，但现在呢？越来越多国家开始用自己的货币结算，东盟搞了本币结算圈，巴西卖大豆直接收人民币，俄罗斯更是把 存在美国的黄金全拉回国。美元的国际地位正在一步步被蚕食，这不是危言耸听，而是肉眼可见的趋势。 美债这事儿，最近又成了全球金融圈的头号瓜。6月份到期的6.5万亿美元美债，像一颗定时炸弹，正悬在华盛顿的头顶。而大家最关心的问题是：中国会不 会接盘？我的答案很简单——别开玩笑了，接盘就是给自己挖坑！ 还有人提到比特币，说美国可能用比特币来化债。这更是个笑话。比特币是什么？它是个虚拟品，网络崩溃了它就归零。美国拿虚拟货币换中国的真金白 银，这不是明抢是什么？拿中国人当傻子吗？ 美国的债务问题已经不是靠"化债"能解决的了，它的问题是系统性的。贪腐严重、贫富差距拉大、财政赤字失控 ...

没有人会想到，美国作为世界第一大经济体，如今美国政府的债务却超过了36万亿美元。 现在每年光给国债持有人（包括外国政府和投资者）的利息，就得付8810亿美元！这就相当于每天睁开眼就要还24亿利息。债务到期了怎么办？美国政府的 办法是：绝大多数（99.5%）通过发行新国债来还旧债！ 以前，靠着美元是世界头号硬通货（尤其是1974年和沙特等国协议保证石油用美元结算），全球赚了美元的国家（比如中国、日本）都乐意买美国国债保值 （石油美元→买美债），形成循环。 美国政府觉得欠债不怕：一来能印美元还钱（虽然会贬值），二来一直有人买新债接盘。 但风水轮流转！现在这模式不行了：2025年4月的一次美债拍卖（30年期国债），认购情况创四年最差，买家数量大幅减少。 最近网上疯传"美国6月有6.5万亿美元国债到期还不起"，搞得人心惶惶。其实这数字大错特错！真实情况是这样的： 1. 实际到期没那么多：1.2万亿~1.45万亿美元。 中国有句老话说的好，冰冻三尺非一日之寒！美国政府之所以能欠下如此高的债务，也是通过经年累积而成。 美国政府开支如此巨大，很大一部分都用于了军费上。就说伊拉克和阿富汗那两场仗（2001-2021年），直接 ...

信息源：本文陈述所有内容皆为可靠信息来源赘述在文章结尾 就在大家盯着中国、日本抛售美债的时候，美国财政部竟凭空冒出个"超级接盘侠"，一年狂扫1.5万亿 美债，比日本全年军费都多！ 可这土豪既不是传统盟友英国，也不是中东金主，但背后牵扯着美国掏空全球钱包的新套路…… 美债困局 2025年4月特朗普宣布"对等关税"政策后，美国国债遭遇了自2001年以来最猛烈的抛售潮，长期国债收 益率连日飙升。 2025年5月，美国财政部资本流动报告显示，中国单月减持189亿美元美债，持仓降至7654亿美元——这 是二十年来首次被英国反超，滑落至美债海外持有国的第三位。 日本虽在2025年2月增持466亿美元，但其国内债务压力制约了持续接盘能力。 此刻，美国国债总额高悬于37万亿美元之巅，而年复一年"借新还旧"的戏码也导致各国央行对美债态度 发生了转变，石油国家转向黄金，欧洲基金缩紧钱袋，美联储自身深陷量化紧缩。 对于美国来说，急需解决的2025年到期债务规模如滚雪球般膨胀，但是特朗普却丝毫不慌，因为一个隐 形巨头已悄然崛起。 2024年全球稳定币转账量高达27.6万亿美元，比Visa和万事达交易量总和还多。进入2025年，其总市 ...