先下后上。 节后第二天，市场期待已久的降准降息同时落地。5月7日上午，国新办举行的新闻发布会上，央行行长 潘功胜宣布了一揽子共10项货币政策措施，成为继去年"924"新政后又一政策"大礼包"。 从当天市场表现来看，早盘股市受相关消息提振集体大涨，多个板块掀起涨停潮，之后三大股指纷纷回 落，尾盘则再度拉升全部收涨。相比之下，债市短端利率有所下行，长债利率却是不降反升，反应略 显"平淡"。 一揽子金融政策对债市影响几何？受访人士认为，降准降息同时落地超出市场预期，但降幅低于预期， 市场看多者众，但做多情绪不足。随着利好落地，后续进入政策效果观察阶段，市场目光将进一步聚焦 经济数据表现、关税谈判进展及影响，以及资金面变化。 7日上午出台的一揽子货币政策举措中，关于降准，潘功胜宣布降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将 向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；完善存款准备金制度，阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存 款准备金率，从目前的5%调降至0%。 关于降息，潘功胜宣布下调政策利率0.1个百分点，即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降 至1.4%，预计将带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）同步下行约0.1个百分点 ...

简评 5 月 7 日三部委新闻发布会 证券研究报告/宏观定期报告 2025 年 05 月 07 日 | 分析师：张德礼 | 报告摘要 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740523040001 |  2025 年 5 月 7 日，三部委召开新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" | | Email：zhangdl01@zts.com.cn | 有关情况，对此有以下学习体会： | | |  第一，会议超预期。首先是召开时间，昨天下午才提前公告的。其次是均为一把手出 | | 相关报告 | 席，市场之前对出席的"负责人"级别有诸多讨论。最后是政策超预期，货币政策降 | | | 准降息，三部委多措并举稳楼市稳股市。除了落实 月 日政治局会议外，可能也 4 25 | | | 和 4 月官方制造业 PMI 弱于季节性有关。 | | | 股波动不大，在岸人民币兑美  第二，市场反应相对平稳。预告一揽子金融政策后，A | | | 元汇率窄幅震荡，长端利率上行。对比 924 新闻发布会看，本次新闻发布会期间市场 | | | 表现相对平稳，一方面是因美国对等关税政策落地后，中国各类稳市场政策取 ...

据不完全统计，上海、长沙、西安、合肥、郑州、海南等地的住房公积金管理中心相继发布通知。梳理 各地公告来看，针对存量个人住房公积金贷款利率，2025年5月8日(不含)前已经发放的个人住房公积金 贷款，本年度内执行原利率，自2026年1月1日起执行调整后的利率。此外，针对5月8日前个人住房公积 金贷款申请已被受理但未发放的贷款，发放时执行调整后的利率标准。 中指研究院政策研究总监陈文静则表示，此次降准降息如期落地有望明显提振市场信心，居民住房商 贷、公积金贷款利率均将下调，居民购房压力有望进一步减弱，对于促进购房需求释放将产生实质性利 好。同时，企业融资成本也将继续回落，对于企业资金面的改善也将产生积极影响。 5月7日，中国人民银行发布关于下调个人住房公积金贷款利率的通知称，中国人民银行决定，自2025年 5月8日起，下调个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点。据悉，此次住房公积金贷款利率调整范围既包 括新发放的住房公积金贷款，也包括存量住房公积金贷款。随后，多地发布通知，从8日起下调个人住 房公积金贷款利率。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉表示，此次住房公积金贷款利率调整范围既包括新发放的住 房公积金贷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a series of monetary policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The PBOC's package includes ten key measures, such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio, adjusting interest rates for various financial products, and increasing loan quotas for specific sectors like technology and agriculture [2][4]. - The reduction in the reserve requirement ratio is expected to lower financial institutions' funding costs, thereby enhancing their ability to serve the real economy [2][5]. - The policy aims to guide the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) downwards, which will subsequently reduce the overall financing costs for society [2][5]. Group 2: Structural Policy Tools - The PBOC has introduced structural monetary policy tools, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rates of these tools, aimed at supporting key sectors such as technology innovation, consumer services, and small enterprises [5][6]. - The increase in the quota for technology innovation and technical transformation loans to 800 billion yuan is designed to bolster support for emerging industries [5][6]. - The establishment of a 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension re-loan is intended to enhance financial support for sectors like hospitality and education [5][6]. Group 3: Impact on Real Estate Market - The reduction of the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points is expected to save residents over 20 billion yuan annually in interest payments, thereby supporting housing demand and stabilizing the real estate market [6][7]. - The adjustment in the housing provident fund loan rates aims to resolve the previous discrepancies between these rates and commercial loan rates, ensuring better effectiveness of the provident fund policy [6][8]. - The overall reduction in housing loan costs is projected to enhance consumer willingness and ability to spend, potentially increasing market activity in the real estate sector [7][8].

5月7日，在国务院新闻办公室举行的新闻发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布了降准降息。其中， 降准0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，并降低政策利率0.1个百分点。 浦银国际认为，政策将继续发力，以抵消关税战给经济带来的负面影响。在货币政策方面，该行相信今 年接下来或还有一次50个基点的降准，以及20-30个基点的降息。在财政政策方面，短期重点或仍在两 会制定刺激政策的加快落实上，尤其是地方政府专项债和特别国债的加快发行上。在两会公布的政府债 券发行额度使用完毕后，认为下半年政府或额外拿出 1%~1.5%GDP的财政资金支持，以对冲关税影 响。短期内潜在的全国性生育补贴政策的发布亦仍值得期待。 在房地产政策方面，浦银国际指出，预期的调降公积金房贷利率已经兑现。接下来如果房产销售动能仍 未有明显好转，那么政府还可以考虑提供契税优惠或/和配合生育政策推出购房优惠等。从供给端来 看，去年年底已预告政策的落实依然是短期焦点所在，包括专项债支持收地收储、央行收地专项再贷款 的设立和100万套货币化安置城中村和危旧房改造等。 景顺亚太区（日本除外）环球市场策略师赵耀庭则表示，对中国市场而言，今日的政策利率下调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the article revolves around the recent monetary policy adjustments by the central bank, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates, aimed at boosting market liquidity and investor confidence in the A-share market [1][5]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank announced a 50 basis point reduction in the RRR effective from May 15, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds. Additionally, the interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, with the 5-year and above first home loan rate decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6% [5][3]. - The announcement also included the optimization of two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, combining 500 billion yuan for securities fund insurance company swaps and 300 billion yuan for stock repurchase loans, totaling 800 billion yuan [5]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, A-shares initially surged but later experienced a pullback, attributed to short-term profit-taking and insufficient market momentum despite the positive news [4][1]. - Historical data indicates that the last time a similar RRR cut occurred, the Shanghai Composite Index rose over 8% the following day, raising questions about whether a similar pattern will repeat [6][8]. Sector Impacts - The financial and brokerage sectors are expected to benefit directly from the RRR and interest rate cuts, as increased market activity enhances brokerage revenues and expands bank credit [9]. - The real estate and infrastructure sectors may see relief from financial pressures on property companies, coupled with lower mortgage rates, potentially revitalizing the real estate market and related industries [9]. - The technology and consumer sectors are likely to gain from new financing tools aimed at supporting innovation and stimulating consumer demand, with specific focus on semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and home appliances [9]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests a balanced investment approach to navigate market volatility, emphasizing the importance of diversification across asset classes and sectors, as well as maintaining a long-term perspective through systematic investment [12][14]. - It also highlights the need for flexible adjustments and risk control measures to manage emotional trading and optimize returns in a fluctuating market environment [15].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a comprehensive set of monetary policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The PBOC is implementing timely adjustments to the RRR and interest rates in response to domestic and international economic conditions, particularly due to external shocks such as increased tariffs from the U.S. [2][3]. - The reduction in the RRR is expected to release more liquidity, which will help stabilize market expectations and support key sectors such as infrastructure, small and medium-sized enterprises, and the real estate market [3][4]. Group 2: Future Expectations - There is potential for further RRR cuts within the year, with estimates suggesting a total reduction of 0.75-1.0 percentage points by 2025, indicating that an additional 0.25-0.5 percentage points may be possible in the third quarter [5][6]. - The current average RRR for commercial banks will decrease from 6.6% to 6.2% following the recent cut, suggesting that there is still room for further reductions in the future [6]. Group 3: Policy Tools and Structure - The announced monetary policies include a mix of quantity-based, price-based, and structural tools, with a focus on addressing both short-term and long-term economic needs [8][9]. - Specific measures include a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates and a 0.25 percentage point cut in personal housing provident fund loan rates, alongside the establishment of new structural monetary policy tools [7][8]. - The structural policies are designed to address various challenges in the economy and finance, with six out of ten policies focusing on structural adjustments, which are expected to have a significant cumulative effect [9].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, expected to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by the same margin [3][4] - The central bank's actions are seen as a clear signal of "appropriate easing" aimed at stabilizing growth and the market, especially in light of ongoing external tariff disputes affecting exports and the economy [3][4] - The current economic growth rate is reported at 5.4% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend following policy interventions in the previous year [3] Group 2: Stock Market Support - The central bank and the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. are set to support the stock market by enhancing liquidity and providing backing for index fund purchases [5][6] - A total of 800 billion yuan has been allocated for two financial tools aimed at stabilizing the capital market, which will be utilized when the market is significantly undervalued [5][6] - The A-share market showed stability with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index rising by 0.8% and 0.51%, respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment following the announcement [6] Group 3: Real Estate Market Policies - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the new rate for first-time homebuyers set at 2.6% for loans over five years [8][9] - The new policies are expected to alleviate repayment pressures for homebuyers and stimulate housing consumption, contributing positively to market confidence [8][9] - The government is also working on optimizing financing systems related to real estate development, which is anticipated to improve funding conditions for enterprises [9][10] Group 4: Consumer Spending Initiatives - A new 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension re-loan program has been established to stimulate domestic demand, particularly in durable goods and service consumption [11] - The policy aims to create a positive cycle of stabilizing the real estate market, boosting consumption, and enhancing investment [11] - The central bank has also reduced reserve requirements for auto finance and leasing companies by 5 percentage points to further support consumer spending [11] Group 5: Support for Technological Innovation - An additional 300 billion yuan has been allocated for loans aimed at technological innovation and upgrades, bringing the total to 800 billion yuan [12][13] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds is being supported through various measures to enhance funding for innovative enterprises [13][14] - Multiple securities firms and tech companies are preparing to issue innovation bonds, indicating a proactive approach to funding in the sector [14]

证券研究报告 | 固收点评报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 07 日 降准降息落地，债市利好或出尽 ——5 月 7 日金融监管国新办新闻发布会点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 图表 2：2025 年初以来同业存单利率走势 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页/ 共 4页 图表 1：2025 年初以来，DR001 及 DR007 利率走势（%） 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 图表 3：各期限国债收益率走势（%） 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 事件：5 月 7 日国新办新闻发布会上监管推出一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。 联系人 降准降息落地。为落实 4 月下旬政治局会议部署，应对高关税对经济的潜在冲击，5 月 7 日金融监管层在国新办新闻发布会上推出了一揽子金融政策，将助力经济稳增 ...

Domestic News - The Chinese government is set to hold high-level economic talks with the U.S. at the request of the U.S. side, with a firm stance against the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and introduced ten measures to stabilize the market and expectations [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released a comprehensive action plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, including 25 specific measures to optimize fund management and align interests with investors [2] Financial Policies - Starting from May 8, 2025, the personal housing provident fund loan rates will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the new rates set at 2.1% for first-time homebuyers on loans of five years or less [2] - The People's Bank of China will lower the re-lending rates by 0.25 percentage points, with new rates set at 1.2%, 1.4%, and 1.5% for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year loans respectively [2] - The central bank has adjusted the 7-day reverse repurchase operation rate from 1.50% to 1.40% effective May 8, 2025 [3] Market Developments - As of the end of April, China's gold reserves increased to 73.77 million ounces, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [4] - China's foreign exchange reserves rose to $328.17 billion by the end of April, an increase of $41 billion, reflecting a 1.27% rise [4] - Geely Automobile announced plans to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr, aiming for a complete merger [4] International News - The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision is expected to be announced soon, with predictions of potential rate cuts in the coming months [5] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Federal Reserve may cut rates three times, totaling 75 basis points, to address inflation and employment risks [5] - The Bank of Korea's recent meeting minutes indicate a growing consensus for potential rate cuts due to economic slowdown [5]