美元走弱与年末季节性因素成为本轮人民币升值的重要助推力。12月以来，随着美联储降息落地，美元 指数再度走弱，一度失守97。"市场预期伴随着美联储继续开展降息，将进一步压制美元长期走势，为 人民币提供长期的外部升值空间。"国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟对记者表示。 新华财经上海12月23日电 人民币近期持续走强，迭创新高。23日，离岸人民币兑美元率先升破7.02关 口，为2024年10月以来首次，距离7整数关口仅"一步之遥"，与此同时，在岸人民币兑美元升破7.03关 口，日内上涨近百点。 截至13时30分，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元分别报7.0283、7.0195。 事实上，此轮人民币强势行情自10月中旬起，便已拉开帷幕。期间，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元分别升值 约1000点、1200点，涨幅分别达1.58%、1.68%。 （文章来源：上海证券报） 年末"结汇潮"也是人民币走势的关键支撑。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对记者表示，临近年底，企业 结汇需求增加，带动人民币季节性走强。在人民币持续走强后，前期累积的结汇需求有可能加速释放。 从各类影响因素上看，预计短期内人民币还会处在偏强运行状态。 历史数据显示，春节前 ...

尤其是这一轮人民币升值，并非单一因素推动，而是内外多重力量共振的结果。搞懂背后的逻辑，才能 更清晰地把握其中的机遇与风险。今天就用通俗的语言，和大家聊聊人民币持续升值的来龙去脉，以及 对我们每个人、 最近打开财经新闻，总能看到"人民币升值""逼近7.0关口"这样的话题。或许你会觉得，汇率波动是高 大上的金融议题，和普通人没多大关系？其实不然——它早已悄悄渗透到我们的消费、就业、投资甚至 海外出行的方方面面。 ...

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 范子萌）人民币近期持续走强，迭创新高。 事实上，此轮人民币强势行情自10月中旬起，便已拉开帷幕。期间，在岸、离岸人民币对美元分别升值 约1000点、1200点，涨幅分别达1.58%、1.68%。 历史数据显示，春节前银行代客结售汇顺差规模往往是全年的最高水平，国内外汇市场供需关系对人民 币升值的支持力度即将达到全年最高水平。 12月23日，离岸人民币对美元率先升破7.02关口，为2024年10月以来首次，距离7整数关口仅"一步之 遥"，与此同时，在岸人民币对美元升破7.03关口，日内上涨近百点。 截至13时30分，在岸、离岸人民币对美元分别报7.0283、7.0195。 美元走弱与年末季节性因素成为本轮人民币升值的重要助推力。12月以来，随着美联储降息落地，美元 指数再度走弱，一度失守97。"市场预期伴随着美联储继续开展降息，将进一步压制美元长期走势，为 人民币提供长期的外部升值空间。"国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟对记者表示。 年末"结汇潮"也是人民币走势的关键支撑。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对记者表示，临近年底，企业 结汇需求增加，带动人民币季节性走强。在人民币持续走强后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The former mayor of Chongqing and economist Huang Qifan predicts that the RMB will gradually appreciate against the USD over the next decade, potentially reaching around 6 from its current level above 7, driven by the natural results of China's high-quality economic development [1]. Group 1: Economic Transition - China's manufacturing is shifting from "quantity" to "quality," with industrial added value accounting for 32% of the global total, establishing a competitive advantage in sectors like automotive, shipbuilding, high-speed rail, and renewable energy [3]. - The structure of exports has changed significantly, with 60% now being high-end equipment and electronic products, indicating a move away from low-cost competition towards value-added products [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Independence - China has achieved significant autonomy in its industrial supply chain, with over 80% of export products having more than 80% domestic added value, reducing reliance on processing trade [5]. - This shift means that China is no longer just a processing hub but is exporting with its own technology and brands, necessitating stronger domestic currency support [5]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Dynamics - Despite external pressures, China's actual foreign investment usage has doubled over the past decade, averaging about $120 billion annually, with a shift from quantity to quality in foreign investments [6]. - Foreign enterprises contribute significantly to China's exports, accounting for 30% of total exports and 50% of high-value-added product exports, which supports the demand for RMB [6]. Group 4: Implications of RMB Appreciation - For consumers, an appreciation of the RMB means cheaper imports, potentially lowering costs for education, luxury goods, and travel [8]. - For businesses, it will necessitate upgrades and discourage low-margin export strategies, promoting only those with technology and brand strength to thrive internationally [8]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Adjustments - Investors holding significant USD assets may face depreciation in value when converted back to RMB, while investments in high-quality Chinese assets could yield benefits from both economic fundamentals and currency appreciation [9]. - Huang Qifan emphasizes a gradual appreciation of the RMB, predicting that by 2035, China's per capita GDP in USD could rise from $13,000 to between $25,000 and $26,000, partly due to currency appreciation effects [9].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous appreciation of the RMB is prompting foreign trade companies to expedite their currency settlement to mitigate losses from exchange rate fluctuations, which poses challenges for small and medium-sized enterprises in maintaining their price competitiveness [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Settlement Practices - Many foreign trade operators are adopting a strategy of settling currency immediately upon receipt of funds to avoid losses due to RMB appreciation [1][3]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises prefer timely currency settlement to maintain cash flow, often avoiding hedging strategies like locking in exchange rates [1][3]. - The recent trend of RMB appreciation has led to immediate currency settlement becoming a common practice among exporters, as they seek to minimize potential losses [1][3]. Group 2: Impact of RMB Appreciation - The RMB has reached a 14-month high, which is negatively impacting export companies by reducing the amount of RMB received from USD settlements [1][3]. - Companies may face immediate exchange losses, and raising product prices to protect profit margins could weaken their competitive pricing in the manufacturing sector [1][3]. - Increased demand for currency settlement at year-end may further drive RMB appreciation, creating additional pressure on exporters [1][3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - Analysts predict that the RMB may enter a "6 era" in the long term, with expectations of continued appreciation driven by seasonal capital flows and increased currency settlement needs as the Chinese New Year approaches [5][6]. - The RMB's recent strength is attributed to a decline in the USD index and increased settlement demand from companies as the year-end approaches [6][10]. - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing the RMB exchange rate to create a favorable trading environment for foreign trade enterprises, rather than allowing rapid appreciation [9][10]. Group 4: Trade and Economic Growth - China's goods trade maintained positive growth, with exports increasing by 6.2% and imports by 0.2% in the first eleven months of the year [7]. - The shift from price competition to brand and technology diversification is expected as companies adapt to exchange rate pressures, aligning with government initiatives to support service exports and digital trade [7][9]. - The overall economic strategy emphasizes boosting domestic consumption and enhancing the supply of quality goods and services, which is supported by a stronger RMB [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous appreciation of the RMB poses challenges for small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises, leading them to adopt more timely settlement practices to mitigate exchange rate losses [3][5][6]. Group 1: Impact of RMB Appreciation - The RMB has reached a 14-month high, causing immediate exchange losses for export companies as the amount of RMB received from USD settlements decreases [3][5]. - Companies are increasingly settling their foreign exchange as soon as payments are received to maintain cash flow, rather than using hedging strategies [3][5][6]. - The appreciation of the RMB may force companies to raise product prices, potentially diminishing their competitive pricing advantage in the manufacturing sector [3][5]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Analysts predict that the RMB may enter the "6 era" in the long term, with expectations of continued appreciation driven by seasonal capital flows and increased foreign exchange inflows [9][12]. - The recent increase in the RMB's value is attributed to the decline in the US dollar index and heightened settlement demands as the year-end approaches [11][12]. - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and trade innovation, which aligns with the ongoing appreciation of the RMB [13]. Group 3: Recommendations for Enterprises - Experts suggest that companies should consider using financial derivatives like forward contracts to lock in favorable exchange rates during the RMB appreciation phase [15]. - The need for timely settlements is underscored by the current market conditions, where companies face pressure to manage their financial costs effectively [15].

金融期货早评 宏观：静待新消息指引 【市场资讯】1）中国 LPR 连续七个月维持不变：12 月 5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5%，1 年期 LPR 为 3%。2）中国央行：单笔逾期金额在 1 万元以下可一次性修复个人信用，明年 1 月 1 日 起正式实施。3）中国商务部：12 月 23 日起对原产欧盟的进口相关乳制品实施临时反补贴 措施。4）特朗普"钦点"理事米兰：美联储明年不继续降息就有衰退风险；美联储明年票委 放鹰：未来几个月内没必要降息，11 月 CPI 被低估。5）特朗普公布建同名军舰在内的"黄 金舰队"计划，首艘舰艇预计 2028 年完工，还将增加航母数量。6）日本高官发出迄今最严 厉警告，财相称针对汇市投机拥有"自由裁量权"，将采取大胆行动；副财相警惕汇率"剧烈 且单边"波动。 【核心逻辑】海外方面，美联储 12 月议息会议如期降息 25 个基点，基调较市场预期的"鹰 派降息"更为温和，不仅宣布短债购买计划，鲍威尔也释放鸽派信号。11 月非农虽小幅回 升，但失业率创四年新高，已进入警戒区，美国就业市场继续降温，而美国 CPI 超预期降 温强化了降息交易，但市场怀疑数据失真，仍需关注后续的 CPI ...

粤电力Ａ回复：投资者您好，公司暂无美元负债，进口燃煤采购主要通过美元结算，现阶段人民币升值 有利于降低燃料采购成本，未来公司将持续关注汇率走势变化。感谢您的关注。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 证券之星消息，粤电力Ａ(000539)12月23日在投资者关系平台上答复投资者关心的问题。 投资者提问：公司近期提到燃煤采购国内国外的比例约为一比一。请问国外采购燃煤是用美元结算吗？ 近期人民币持续升值，人民币兑换美元汇率由年初的7.2升值到7.05，有利于发电企业降低燃料采购成 本。请问公司是否有相应的措施应对汇率变化，实现企业利益最大化？作为煤炭进口量最大的沿海发电 集团，请问公司是否有美元负债？ ...

人民财讯12月23日电，粤电力A(000539)12月23日在互动平台表示，公司暂无美元负债，进口燃煤采购 主要通过美元结算，现阶段人民币升值有利于降低燃料采购成本，未来公司将持续关注汇率走势变化。 ...

Industry Overview - The paper industry is experiencing a simultaneous "shutdown wave" and "price increase wave" from late 2025 to early 2026, with major packaging paper companies like Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng initiating large-scale maintenance and capacity reduction [1] - Major white card and cultural paper manufacturers, including Bohui, APP, and Universal Paper, have collectively announced price increases, highlighting differences in cost structures and supply-demand relationships among various paper types [1] Production and Pricing Dynamics - Nine Dragons Paper is expected to reduce production by approximately 310,000 tons in the first quarter, while Shanying International will halt 12 corrugated paper machines for 5-10 days in January [1] - Lee & Man Paper will conduct maintenance on five paper machines in Guangdong for 15-22 days in February, driven by a decline in waste paper prices, which have dropped by 260-400 RMB/ton since December [1] - Bohui Paper and APP will raise industrial paper prices by 200 RMB/ton starting January 1, 2026, while Universal Paper will increase prices for white and food card paper by the same amount in mid-December, due to high costs of wood pulp and energy [1] Currency Impact - The appreciation of the RMB is seen as an additional benefit for the industry, as it will lower the import costs of pulp, thereby enhancing company profits [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Datong Securities indicates that the paper industry is benefiting from a "price increase bonus, supply contraction, and policy regulation," which strengthens the supply-demand balance [2] - CICC anticipates a moderate recovery in consumer demand by 2026, with the capacity expansion of boxboard and corrugated paper nearing completion, potentially leading to a recovery in capacity utilization and price levels [2] - CITIC Securities notes that the appreciation of the RMB will decrease import costs for raw materials like pulp, improving gross margins in processing and trading sectors [2] Company Developments - Bohui Paper announced a price increase of 200 RMB/ton for industrial paper starting January 1, 2026, and plans to expand its chemical pulp production capacity from 95,000 tons to 320,000 tons with a total investment of 1.70066 billion RMB [3] - Sun Paper, a leading player in the domestic paper industry, is accelerating the construction of several projects, including a 400,000-ton specialty paper project and a 300,000-ton living paper project, expected to enter trial production in Q3-Q4 of 2025 [3]