导 语： 在托举茅台 1935 两年走上百亿神坛后，经销商压货承受力达到了极限，但根本还在于终端动销不畅。某大区茅台经销商透露，在他 的片区，终端真实动销率在 20%-30% 的水平。 中国白酒行业图谱中，茅台 1935 是一个颇具研究价值的样本。 作为贵州茅台酒厂 ( 集团 ) 有限责任公司（下称茅台集团）的战略补位产品，茅台 1935 应"十四五"重任而生，目标直指 200 亿。短短两年内，茅台 1935 便创造了从零到百亿销售额的"飞升"神话，却在第三年陷入价格倒挂的困局。 无论是注入品牌势能，还是渠道捆绑销售，以及对于时下宴席热点追踪，茅台集团始终将茅台 1935 放在系列酒的核心位置。 但由于定价失焦造成的错位，茅台 1935 的渠道库存与终端动销之间出现了显著断层。渠道驱动型增长模式的先天缺陷，也由此显露。 通过茅台 1935 浮沉史样本更能看到，脱离终端消费而催生品牌"神话"，已是旧时代的故事。 在高端白酒市场，"认知护城河 > 产品定价 > 渠道推力 " 仍是颠补不破的真理。即便 贴着茅台金字招牌，也不得不让位于消费规律与常识的铁律。 原地起飞 茅台 1935 的由来，要从 茅台集团 "十四五 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent revision of the "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste by Party and Government Agencies" has significantly impacted the white liquor industry, particularly in reducing government-related consumption, which now accounts for less than 5% of the market [2][3]. Industry Impact - The initial market reaction to the new policy saw a short-term decline in liquor stocks, but the actual impact on sales is limited due to the high marketization of the industry and a stable brand landscape [3][4]. - The white liquor market is primarily driven by business and civilian consumption, with the industry facing challenges such as overcapacity and inventory issues rather than direct policy impacts [3][4]. Strategic Adjustments - Companies are advised to focus on civilian consumption scenarios, targeting markets such as weddings and other celebrations, while also enhancing their e-commerce strategies to reach consumers effectively [5][6]. - The shift towards e-commerce should involve breaking traditional distribution models and viewing e-commerce as a core channel rather than a supplementary one [6][7]. Consumer Trends - The industry is experiencing a trend towards younger consumers who are gravitating towards lower-alcohol beverages and new drink options, necessitating a cultural approach to engage this demographic [6][11]. - Companies should innovate in product offerings, emphasizing taste and health attributes, and consider developing smaller, more accessible products to attract younger audiences [11][12]. Internationalization Challenges - The internationalization of white liquor remains primarily within the Chinese community abroad, with future growth requiring a dual approach: leveraging national influence and adapting products to local tastes [12]. - The industry must learn from successful international beverage models, such as Japanese sake, to effectively penetrate non-Chinese markets [12]. Future Outlook - The white liquor industry is at a crossroads, with expectations for a recovery in the premium liquor segment by the end of 2025, driven by brand resilience and evolving consumer preferences [10]. - A focus on quality and innovation will be essential for the industry to navigate the current adjustment phase and achieve sustainable growth [12].

初夏的莫干山，翠竹摇曳，清风送爽。5月9日，2025世界品牌莫干山大会"草坪故事会"在浙江德清隆重举行。 在这场聚焦"故事见匠心，品牌恒久远"的高端品牌对话中，达古拉内蒙古酒业有限公司董事长吴海辉作为特邀嘉宾，与国内外众多知名 品牌共同探讨中国品牌的文化传承与创新发展之路。这不仅是对达古拉品牌实力的认可，更是对内蒙古白酒文化的肯定。 与茅台共话品牌匠心，草原美酒绽放异彩 在茅台1935"东方有礼·共酿华章"迎宾品鉴会上，源自赤水河畔的茅台1935与来自内蒙古大草原的蒙鹅窖藏交相辉映，共同演绎中国白酒 的多元魅力。"中国白酒的文化底蕴是品牌最宝贵的财富。"达古拉酒业董事长吴海辉表示，"达古拉始终坚守草原传统酿酒技艺，将游牧 民族的智慧与现代工艺完美融合。" 蒙鹅窖藏：草原匠心的时代诠释 品鉴会上，达古拉酒业重点推介的新品"蒙鹅窖藏"酱香型白酒成为焦点。这款采用红金色礼盒包装的高端产品，不仅在外观设计上致敬 茅台经典，更在酿造工艺上融入了草原特色。 品鉴会现场，达古拉酒业董事长吴海辉表示："达古拉酒业不仅致力于酿造高品质的美酒，更希望通过酒这一载体，传递草原文化的深厚 底蕴与开放包容的精神。"这一理念，正是达古拉 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu aims to maintain steady growth in revenue amidst a low-growth environment in the liquor industry, with a focus on internationalization as a key future direction [2][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2023, Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 36.01 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.24 billion yuan, marking a historical high and ranking third in the liquor industry [2]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved revenues of 16.52 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 7.72% and 6.15%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Growth Strategy - The company plans to continue its steady growth trajectory, emphasizing the importance of high-end product sales as a key driver [3]. - In 2023, revenue from mid-to-high-priced liquor reached 26.532 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.35%, primarily due to the increased share of the Qinghua Fenjiu series [3]. Group 3: Product Development - Shanxi Fenjiu's product strategy for 2024 focuses on four key product lines: Qinghua 30 and its combinations, Qinghua 20, Bolifen, and Laobai Fen, with a strategy of controlled volume for Bolifen and increased sales for Laobai Fen [3][4]. - The company introduced a new product, Qinghua Fenjiu 26·Revival, to fill the price gap between 600 and 800 yuan, enhancing its product matrix [4]. Group 4: Internationalization Efforts - The management highlighted that international markets will be a significant breakthrough for the liquor industry, with a focus on high-quality overseas expansion [5]. - The company has successfully filled market gaps in 11 countries, with liquor export revenue increasing by over 50% year-on-year, and organized over 700 promotional events internationally [5].

Group 1 - The domestic beer industry is experiencing a downturn in 2024, with major companies like Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, and Yanjing Beer reducing their workforce by over a thousand employees each, with Budweiser APAC seeing the largest reduction from 21,181 to 18,401 employees [1] - In contrast, the white liquor industry is expanding, with only 7 out of 22 listed companies reducing their workforce, and major players like Kweichow Moutai and Yanghe Brewery increasing their employee count by over a thousand [1] - The overall number of employees in the 44 listed liquor companies has decreased by over 3,800, bringing the total below 300,000 [1] Group 2 - Despite the lack of widespread layoffs in the white liquor sector, executive compensation has tightened, with 11 A-share white liquor companies reporting a decrease in total remuneration for their directors and supervisors [3] - Specific examples include the chairman and general manager of Kuozi Jiao, Xu Jin, whose pre-tax salary dropped from 3.644 million to 2.644 million, and Shede Liquor's chairman, Pu Jizhou, whose salary decreased from over 3.5 million to 2.7 million [3] - In contrast to executives, the average salary for regular employees in liquor companies remained relatively stable, with Kweichow Moutai increasing its workforce by over 1,400 and maintaining a leading position in average employee compensation [3] Group 3 - Industry analysts suggest that the white liquor sector is approaching a turning point, indicated by three signals: a reshuffling of distribution channels, companies controlling inventory to stabilize prices, and the absence of long-term price stagnation for Moutai [3] - Currently, inventory control and price stabilization have become normalized practices among liquor companies, while channel reshuffling is ongoing, and signals of price stagnation have yet to emerge [3]

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 今世缘（603369）2024 年股东大会调研反馈 强推（维持） 稳健进取，持续破局 目标价：75 元 事项： ❖ 公司于 5 月 21 日召开 2024 年度股东大会以及分析师和投资者交流会，会上 公司领导积极坦诚交流，就行业发展阶段、公司战略考量、具体执行落地等投 资者关切的问题，进行深刻透彻地解答。我们前往参会，核心反馈及分析如下： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 11,546 | 12,578 | 13,641 | 14,695 | | 同比增速(%) | 14.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,412 | 3,647 | 3,930 | 4,235 | | 同比增速(%) | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.74 | 2.93 | 3.15 | 3.40 | | 市盈率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent "ban on alcohol" has limited short-term impact on the liquor industry, but it may significantly influence the strategic layout of liquor companies and alter the industry landscape [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Impact of the New Ban - The new ban is issued by the central government, marking a shift from previous local regulations, and it imposes stricter standards on alcohol consumption in government settings [1][2]. - The 2025 revised regulations explicitly prohibit all alcoholic beverages in work meals, affecting state-owned enterprises and financial institutions [2][3]. Market Reaction and Consumption Trends - The proportion of government consumption in liquor sales has decreased from 40% in 2011 to around 5% currently, suggesting that the direct revenue impact of the new ban will be minimal [2][5]. - The new regulations are linked to recent incidents involving officials and alcohol, which may lead to temporary market volatility but are not expected to fundamentally alter investment logic in the liquor sector [2][3]. Brand and Market Dynamics - The new ban is unlikely to replicate the severe market downturn seen after the 2012 "Eight Regulations," as high-end brands like Moutai remain essential in business settings [3][5]. - Moutai's sales from government channels are estimated to be around 2% of total sales, indicating limited exposure to the new regulations [5][6]. - The ban may disproportionately affect mid-tier brands that rely on government consumption for brand prestige, while high-end brands maintain their market position [5][6]. Long-term Industry Evolution - The series of alcohol bans over the years has gradually shifted the liquor industry from policy dependence to market-driven dynamics, leading to significant changes in industry structure [7][8]. - Current consumption scenarios show that family gatherings, social events, and business dinners are the top three contexts for liquor consumption, highlighting the need for brands to adapt to changing consumer preferences [8][11]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to continue evolving, with companies like Moutai and Wuliangye exploring new consumption scenarios and lifestyle branding to maintain relevance [11][12]. - Investors are advised to monitor the sector for potential recovery signals, with expectations for a market turnaround possibly extending to late 2025 or 2026 [12].

证 券 研 究 报 告 今世缘（603369）2024 年股东大会调研反馈 强推（维持） 稳健进取，持续破局 目标价：75 元 事项： ❖ 公司于 5 月 21 日召开 2024 年度股东大会以及分析师和投资者交流会，会上 公司领导积极坦诚交流，就行业发展阶段、公司战略考量、具体执行落地等投 资者关切的问题，进行深刻透彻地解答。我们前往参会，核心反馈及分析如下： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 公司研究 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 11,546 | 12,578 | 13,641 | 14,695 | | 同比增速(%) | 14.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,412 | 3,647 | 3,930 | 4,235 | | 同比增速(%) | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently undergoing a period of adjustment, influenced by changes in consumer behavior and economic conditions, leading to a focus on inventory reduction and product innovation among major liquor companies [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The liquor industry is in a "three-period overlap" phase, experiencing deep adjustments due to macroeconomic cycles, industry cycles, and individual company/product cycles [2]. - Major liquor companies are facing slowed or declining performance growth, with Wuliangye's 2024 revenue reaching 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [2]. - Luzhou Laojiao's 2024 revenue and net profit grew by 3.19% and 1.71% respectively, while other companies like Shede Liquor reported significant declines in performance [2]. Group 2: Inventory Management - Major liquor companies have improved inventory levels after implementing strict supply control measures, with Wuliangye reporting low social inventory levels for its eighth-generation product [1][4]. - Wuliangye's sales performance has remained stable, with online sales increasing by 30% year-on-year, and overall market prices continuing to rise [4]. - Yanghe Co. emphasized the importance of inventory reduction as a key focus moving forward, while Luzhou Laojiao reported that its channel inventory is currently manageable [5]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - Guizhou Moutai has set a revenue growth target of 9% for 2025, reflecting a more cautious approach compared to previous years [3]. - Wuliangye aims to align its revenue growth with macroeconomic indicators for 2025, moving away from previous aggressive growth targets [3]. - Luzhou Laojiao's 2025 operational plan focuses on steady progress rather than aggressive growth, indicating a shift in strategy [3]. Group 4: Consumer Trends - The industry is witnessing a shift towards younger consumers and lower-alcohol products, with Luzhou Laojiao noting that nearly 50% of its revenue now comes from lower-alcohol products [6]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to enhance the quality of its lower-alcohol products and target the "Z generation" through innovative marketing strategies [6]. - Wuliangye is also focusing on the younger consumer market, planning to accelerate the development and promotion of its lower-alcohol products [7].

Core Viewpoint - Both Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu are focusing on national expansion while maintaining strong positions in their respective home markets, with an emphasis on penetrating lower-tier markets and enhancing brand appeal among younger consumers [2][4]. Group 1: National Expansion Strategies - Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue from markets outside Shanxi is projected to exceed 62% in 2024, with a faster growth rate compared to its home province, adding 598 new distributors outside Shanxi [2][5]. - Fenjiu is targeting the southern markets, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, by refining channel strategies and focusing on core distributors [3]. - Gujing Gongjiu has achieved a national coverage rate of over 70%, with a 6:4 revenue structure between domestic and provincial markets, aiming to create scale in provincial markets [3]. Group 2: Youth Engagement and Product Strategy - Fenjiu is launching a "Young Fenjiu" initiative starting in 2025, focusing on seven aspects of youth engagement, including product aesthetics and cultural expression [4]. - Gujing Gongjiu is implementing a "White Liquor+" strategy, enhancing consumer experiences and developing innovative products to cater to younger demographics [4]. - Gujing Gongjiu continues to focus on a mid-to-high-end strategy, expanding its product range to meet diverse consumer price preferences [4]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - Both companies have refrained from setting specific growth targets for the upcoming year, citing a shift from rapid growth to structural growth in the industry [5]. - The white liquor industry is facing challenges such as oversupply, high inventory, and intense competition, leading to a consensus on slower growth [5]. - Fenjiu holds approximately one-third market share in the clear aroma segment but currently has no plans for major asset restructuring or acquisitions [5].