南华外汇（美元兑人民币）周报 中美贸易战反复下，中间价仍是汇率锚 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年4月21日 主要观点 综合通胀、关税政策、美元流动性三个维度的评估，接下来市场的定价逻辑或呈现下述特征：短期交 易窗口或聚焦关税政策的衰退传导效应与持续发酵的美债市场流动性压力；而在中长期维度，投资者或重 新评估美元信用体系稳定性、全球贸易架构及地缘政治格局的潜在重构路径。这种多时间维度的风险定价 机制，折射出全球资本对既有经济秩序可持续性的深层焦虑。因此，在上述时空交叠的定价逻辑演变下， 本质上体现了国际货币体系的结构性隐忧——当短期政策冲击与长期秩序重构形成共振压力，美元体系的 边际承载能力正遭遇系统性拷问。我们认为，接下来的关键点就在于经济，即在当前全球经济的"韧性锦 标赛"中，美元霸权能否维系的核心密钥，或将取决于美国经济能否在这场多维压力测试中保持最后的安 全边际。近期美元兑人民币即期汇率与美元指数的背离走势持续强化，显示人民币汇率形成机制对单一美 元波动的敏感度下降。而随着近期关税事件对汇率形成的压力有所减缓，在稳汇率政策框架（中间 ...

Group 1 - The Fourth Greater Bay Area Youth Entrepreneurs Conference will be held in Shenzhen on April 24-25, focusing on cutting-edge fields such as AI robotics, low-altitude economy, cross-border e-commerce, new media, and new consumption [1][2] - The event aims to create a platform for young entrepreneurs to exchange ideas, stimulate innovation, and promote high-quality development in the Greater Bay Area [1] - A special activity will honor 45 outstanding young entrepreneurs in recognition of the 45th anniversary of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, showcasing leaders from specialized small giant enterprises, unicorn companies, and listed firms [1] Group 2 - The conference will feature industry experts as mentors for young entrepreneurs, providing guidance and support for their growth [2] - Keynote speeches will include topics such as "New Productive Forces and the Mission of Bay Area Youth" and an analysis of the US-China trade war, addressing opportunities and challenges for young entrepreneurs in a complex international economic environment [2] - An innovation and entrepreneurship product showcase will highlight innovative products in AI, smart manufacturing, new energy, biotechnology, and cultural creativity, demonstrating the appeal of Shenzhen's innovative brands [2]

Group 1: Sales and Revenue - In 2024, the company's export business accounted for 53% of total receivables, with a gross profit margin of 39.13% [1][2] - The net profit for 2024 was 442 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.30% [6] - The sales revenue from the U.S. market is uncertain, with expectations for 2025 indicating a potential decline of 15% to an increase of 5% [9] Group 2: Market Strategy and Competition - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [1][5] - There is no plan for overseas production capacity at this time, despite the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs [5][12] - The company emphasizes that its products differ from those of its affiliate, Lingheng Electric, thus avoiding direct competition [2][4] Group 3: Product Development and Innovation - The company has developed a range of new products, including stainless steel pumps and specialized pumps for various applications [5][14] - Continuous training programs are conducted to enhance the technical skills of employees, ensuring ongoing innovation [5] - The company aims to maintain a focus on high-efficiency, energy-saving, and intelligent product development [8][9] Group 4: Financial Management and Shareholder Relations - The company is committed to maximizing shareholder value through a long-term profit distribution policy [2][6] - There are no current plans for share buybacks or significant shareholding increases by major shareholders [9][10] - The company actively manages financial risks and costs to ensure sustainable growth [5][9]

Core Viewpoint - The container shipping volume from China to the U.S. is decreasing significantly due to the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with expectations of further declines as trade tensions escalate [2][7]. Group 1: Container Shipping Volume Trends - In March, container shipping volume from China to the U.S. decreased by 10% compared to the previous month, with a reported 11% decline according to Descartes Data [2][5]. - The shipping volume from China is expected to continue to decline, with a 64% drop in bookings reported in the first week of April compared to the last week of March [7]. - The U.S. retail federation (NRF) predicts that container import volumes will fall below 2024 levels after May, with a projected 20.5% decrease compared to the previous year [7]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The tariff rate on goods from China has been raised to 145%, leading to a sharp increase in order cancellations for shipments from China [7][8]. - The U.S. government has implemented a 10% tariff on all imports from China, which was further increased in March, contributing to a slowdown in shipping activity [5][7]. - There is a growing expectation that the overall cargo transport will significantly slow down due to the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, as China accounts for over 50% of container shipments to the U.S. [8].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of the US-China trade war on the currency exchange rates, particularly the Chinese Yuan (RMB), and the implications for traditional trade enterprises and e-commerce. Core Points and Arguments 1. **RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations**: The RMB has been oscillating between 7.3 and 7.35, with market expectations divided on its future trajectory due to the ongoing US-China trade tensions and central bank policies [1][4][10]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs on Trade**: Traditional trade enterprises are significantly affected by tariffs, leading to a halt in US export orders or a shift to overseas factories. E-commerce sellers are mitigating tariff impacts through low declaration methods [2][25]. 3. **Market Volatility Post-Tariff Announcement**: Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration, global asset markets experienced significant volatility, with the RMB showing relatively small fluctuations compared to the overall depreciation of the USD [3][5]. 4. **Divergent Views on RMB Future**: There are mixed opinions on the RMB's future, with some predicting continued depreciation due to the trade war, while others see potential for appreciation given the overall weakness of the USD [4][10][13]. 5. **Tariff Policy and Dollar Weakness**: The extensive nature of the tariffs has accelerated global trade decoupling, weakening the USD's reserve status and leading to a decline in the dollar index below 100 [5][6]. 6. **Euro Valuation**: The Euro is considered undervalued against the USD, with a reasonable valuation around 1.2, suggesting potential for appreciation if trade tensions escalate further [6][12]. 7. **Current State of US-China Trade Relations**: The trade war is currently at a stalemate, with no significant escalation or comprehensive tariffs being implemented [7][8]. 8. **RMB Pricing and Tariff Risks**: The current RMB exchange rate has already priced in tariff risks, with the depreciation being less severe than during the 2018-2019 trade war period [9][10]. 9. **Potential for RMB Appreciation**: If US-China negotiations lead to a resolution, the additional risk pricing due to tariffs could be eliminated, potentially causing a sharp appreciation of the RMB [12][13]. 10. **Traditional Trade Enterprises' Strategies**: Different types of traditional trade enterprises are responding variably to the tariff situation, with some maintaining operations through local factories in the US, while others are exploring non-US markets [16][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **E-commerce Seller Adaptability**: E-commerce sellers can absorb a certain percentage of tariff increases without raising prices, indicating a resilience in their business model compared to traditional trade [26]. 2. **Logistics and Shipping Adjustments**: The shipping industry is adjusting to reduced trade volumes, with a significant drop in traditional trade leading to a reduction in shipping capacity [29][30]. 3. **Investment Considerations for Enterprises**: Companies looking to expand overseas must consider political stability, tax incentives, and local regulations to mitigate risks associated with international investments [18][19][22]. 4. **Financial Risks in Emerging Markets**: Investing in regions with unstable currencies, such as some African nations, poses significant financial risks due to potential currency fluctuations [24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the intricate dynamics of the US-China trade war and its broader implications for currency valuation and international trade strategies.

食品饮料行业：复盘 2018 年贸易战 对食品饮料行业资产定价的影响 2018 年中美贸易战之后，我们看到食品饮料行业的业绩有所恢复，整个板块 资产定价经历一轮波澜壮阔的行情，我们希望通过分析 2018 年贸易战之后宏 观经济环境和食品饮料行业的变化，来对本轮中美贸易战之后食品饮料行业的 资产定价有所借鉴和指引。 2018 年之后食品饮料板块资产定价的变化，更多的是宏观经济复苏对行业复 苏的整体带动，与流动性充裕带来的资产配置和资产价格重估相关，受产业结 构的变化影响较小。 2025 年 4 月 16 日 看好/维持 食品饮料 行业报告 未来 3-6 个月行业大事： 2025-04-15 金徽酒：一季报披露 2025-04-16 东鹏饮料：一季报披露 2025-04-16 千禾味业：年报及一季报披露 2025-04-18 贝因美：一季报披露 2025-04-19 甘源食品：年报及一季报披露 2025-04-22 三全食品：年报及一季报披露 2025-04-22 燕京啤酒：年报披露 | 资料来源：同花顺 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业基本资料 | | 占比% | | 股票家数 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the RMB is under significant pressure due to the ongoing US-China trade war and Federal Reserve policies, marking the largest strain since the 2008 financial crisis [1][4]. Impact on Import Costs - The depreciation of the RMB against the USD directly increases the import costs of commodities such as oil and iron ore, with a 1% depreciation leading to a cost increase of 0.8-1.2% [4]. - In 2024, China's reliance on foreign oil is projected to reach 73%, resulting in a 15% year-on-year increase in procurement costs for energy companies, which will compress profit margins in sectors like petrochemicals and aviation [4]. - High-tech product imports, including chips and precision instruments, will also see a cost increase, with companies like SMIC facing a 12% rise in procurement costs for technical equipment [4]. Inflationary Pressures - The depreciation of the RMB is expected to cause the food and consumer goods import price index to rise by 6.3%, with essential items like beef and milk powder experiencing price increases of up to 9.8% [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China is projected to rise by 3.5% year-on-year in 2024, exceeding the central bank's 3% warning line, complicating monetary policy balancing between growth and inflation control [6]. Debt Implications - The depreciation of the RMB increases the repayment costs for companies and local governments with foreign debt, with a 5% depreciation translating to an additional $140 billion in debt servicing costs for the $2.8 trillion foreign debt [8][9]. - Real estate companies, such as Country Garden and Vanke, are particularly affected, with the proportion of dollar-denominated debt interest payments rising from 12% to 19%, exacerbating cash flow challenges [9]. Capital Outflow Risks - Continuous RMB depreciation poses risks of capital outflow, as foreign investment may decline and domestic capital may seek higher returns in USD-denominated assets, especially given the current high US Federal Reserve interest rates [10]. Export Dynamics - While RMB depreciation theoretically enhances export competitiveness, it may lead to a reliance on low-end manufacturing, with high-tech product export share declining by 2.3 percentage points to 28.7% in 2024 [11]. - The withdrawal of foreign R&D centers and a shift in investment towards Southeast Asia by companies like BMW and Tesla indicate a potential decline in foreign investment attractiveness due to currency volatility [11]. Structural Changes and Future Outlook - Historical trends suggest that significant currency adjustments often accompany industrial upgrades, and the current low point of the RMB may represent a pivotal moment for China to advance beyond the middle-income trap and into higher value chains [12]. - Short-term challenges are anticipated as the economy adjusts to these changes, necessitating innovation and a robust domestic supply chain to enhance resilience against external shocks [12][13].

Summary of Conference Call on Automotive Chip Industry Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of import tariffs on the automotive chip industry, particularly focusing on the changes in origin certification for imported chips in China [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Changes in Import Tariff Policies - China has adjusted its customs regulations, requiring chips to be certified based on the wafer fabrication location rather than the packaging and testing factory [2]. - This stricter enforcement reduces operational flexibility, particularly affecting analog chips with significant production capacity in the U.S., such as the TABIO series [2][6]. Impact on Automotive Chips - The value of chips in electric vehicles is approximately $2,000, with cockpit and autonomous driving domains accounting for the highest share [2][5]. - About 70% of analog chips can be domestically replaced, while 30% will be challenging to replace in the short term; digital IP chips are about 50% dominated by foreign suppliers [2][5]. Domestic Replacement and Market Dynamics - The implementation of new policies is expected to increase the value for vehicle manufacturers, with a replacement cycle for domestic chips estimated at 6-9 months [2][7]. - Major automotive manufacturers have an average domestic replacement rate of about 20%, with state-owned enterprises demanding higher rates [8]. Competitive Landscape - International suppliers like TI and ADI hold significant market shares, but domestic manufacturers are gaining ground due to policy support and market demand [9]. - TI's analog chip business, primarily produced in the U.S., may face revenue impacts of around 60% if policies are enforced, with potential shifts to overseas production [11]. Geopolitical and Economic Considerations - The escalation of trade tensions could increase the cost per vehicle, affecting about one-third of the chips used [2][13]. - Domestic manufacturers are expected to accelerate the development of local suppliers in response to geopolitical pressures [19]. Future Trends and Projections - The automotive industry is likely to see an increase in domestic supplier cultivation and replacement over the next few years, with a gradual rise in domestic replacement rates [19]. - The shift towards domestic sourcing is driven by the need for supply chain stability and the potential for increased tariffs on U.S. products [24]. Additional Important Insights - The impact of tariffs on specific chip types, particularly those with significant U.S. production, needs close monitoring [6]. - The automotive sector has learned from past chip shortages and is now better prepared to manage supply chain risks [15]. - The potential for exemptions from tariffs exists, depending on reciprocal actions from the U.S. [3][28]. Conclusion - The automotive chip industry is undergoing significant changes due to new tariff policies and geopolitical factors, leading to a push for domestic replacements and a reevaluation of supply chain strategies. The next few years will be critical for the industry's adaptation and growth in domestic capabilities.

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on the constraints faced by Trump rather than speculating on his intentions, suggesting that the U.S. economy and U.S. Treasury rates are key variables for predicting the trajectory of the trade war [1] - It is anticipated that conflicts in the U.S.-China economic and trade sectors will not fully extend into the financial realm before the midterm elections in the U.S. [1] - The article suggests that the A-share market has reached a "chip bottom" in the short term, with a potential focus on technology-themed trading opportunities in April and May [1] Group 1: Trade War and Market Response - The article outlines ten key questions regarding how investors should respond to the escalating U.S.-China trade war, covering its evolution, overseas economies, domestic policies, market trends, and industry allocations [1] - It is expected that domestic policy responses will focus on prevention and pilot programs in April, with a larger scale of policy measures anticipated by mid-year [1] - The article predicts a significant style shift in the market by the third quarter, favoring core assets in consumption, advanced manufacturing, and cyclical sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Themes - The article identifies four major themes for investment focus: AI+ theme, tax-exempt and agricultural themes benefiting from domestic circulation and tariff countermeasures, the North Exchange theme, and the semiconductor self-sufficiency theme [2] - It highlights that external disturbances are beginning to ease, and the peak impact of tariffs has passed, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite [2] - The article suggests that investors should concentrate on sectors with strong performance certainty or order certainty, particularly those with relatively low valuation levels [2] Group 3: Financial Data and Economic Outlook - The article notes a slight recovery in social financing growth in March, driven by accelerated government bond issuance and restored credit demand [6] - It mentions that while short-term corporate loans have increased, medium to long-term loans remain under pressure due to debt replacement effects [6] - The article anticipates continued collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies to support the expansion of social financing [6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The article discusses the potential for the semiconductor sector to benefit from tariff adjustments based on the manufacturing location of chips, particularly for domestic analog chip companies [11] - It emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in the context of the U.S.-China trade war, suggesting a focus on low domestic production rates and local wafer manufacturing [11] - The article also highlights the expected acceleration in the military electronics sector due to order recovery and the push for self-sufficiency amid tariff impacts [9]

撰 文 / 张霖郁 设 计 / 琚 佳 来 源 / New York Times、CNBC 作者：Agnes Chang, Lazaro Gamio and Pablo Robles 惊心动魄的10天。 从美国当地时间4月2日特朗普（Donald J. Trump）对全球贸易伙伴加征关税开始，再到中国政府的 强势回应，目前的结果是美国共新增对华关税145%，其中125%为特朗普定义的对等关税，而之前 分别于2月以及3月两次增加的10%关税，他称是针对中国向美出口芬太尼的处罚性关税。 同时，美国时间4月11日，特朗普政府突然又对来自于中国的手机、电脑等电子产品进行了关税豁 免，对等关税125%不再加收。 中国方面，我们在4月11日作出回应，对美商品加增至125%，并且指出"鉴于在目前关税水平下， 美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性，如果美方后续对中国输美商品继续加征关税，中方将不予理 会。 " 这场贸易战，给依赖中国供应商的美国企业以及依赖对美出口的中国企业带来了巨大的不确定性。 两国近期的报复性措施甚至导致关税成本高于商品本身价格。 但贸易律师、报关行和进口商表示，由于贸易规则不断变化，并非所有产品都会被征收天价 ...