德国4月制造业PMI初值48，预期47.6，前值48.3。德国4月服务业PMI初值48.8，预期50.2，前值50.9。 德国4月综合PMI初值49.7，预期50.5，前值51.3。 ...

欧元区4月制造业PMI初值48.7，预期47.5，前值48.6。 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - Trump's high tariff policy is causing turmoil in the international economy and financial markets, with the IMF predicting a slowdown in global economic output as a result [1] - Finance ministers from multiple countries are negotiating with the Trump administration to lower tariffs, with 18 countries already proposing solutions and discussions planned with officials from 34 countries [1] - Morgan Stanley's Bessent believes that while trade tensions among major powers may ease, negotiations with Asian countries will be challenging [1] - The U.S. stock market surged following the announcement that the tariff deadlock is unsustainable, leading to a stronger dollar and reduced demand for gold, which has seen a 29% increase this year [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices could exceed $4000 next year due to recession risks, tariff hikes, and trade tensions [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring Federal Reserve officials' speeches for monetary policy clues, as well as the April manufacturing PMI preliminary values from the Eurozone and the U.S. [1] - The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine remains uncertain, with Putin proposing a ceasefire and the UK Foreign Secretary advocating for peace [1] Gold Market Analysis - On Tuesday, gold prices experienced a decline, reaching a high of 3499.91 and a low of 3366.71, closing at 3380.85 [2] - The price initially continued to rise but faced pressure during the European trading session and weakened further in the U.S. session, breaking through key support levels [2] - Monthly analysis indicates that after three months of increases, a correction occurred, and a similar pattern is observed with four months of increases followed by a correction in April [2] - The weekly analysis shows that gold prices are supported at the 3006 level, while the daily analysis indicates support at 3206 [2] - Short-term analysis reveals that the price has broken through the four-hour support level, which has now turned into resistance, with the new resistance range identified at 3414-3415 [2] Key Economic Data and Events - Upcoming events include the G20 finance and central bank ministers' meeting, various manufacturing PMI preliminary values from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials [4]

日本4月制造业PMI初值 48.5，前值48.4。 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 4 月 EPMI （战略新兴行业 PMI ）环比下行 10.2 个点至 49.4 。从季节性特征看，本月环比降幅为 2014 年有这一数据以来同期最大；绝对景气 水平亦降至同期次低，仅高于 2022 年 4 月。中观景气面同步收缩， 7 大细分行业中 3 个位于景气扩张区间，较 3 月减少 4 个。 第二， 分项指标看，产需均有所下行，出口订单下滑幅度较大。（ 1 ）生产、产品订货、出口订货指标环比分别下行 16.1 、 15.4 和 17.6 个点，出口 订货指标绝对水平降至 40 以下；（ 2 ）生产跟随订单主动收缩，显示企业对需求变化有充分预期。供需关系相对稳定，产需比例为 2.6 ，好于 2023 年 和 2024 年的平均水平；（ 3 ）两大价格指标转降，购进价格和销售价格环比分别下行 4.8 和 4.4 个点；（ 4 ）就业指标环比下行 5.9 个点，单月环比 降幅为 2023 年以来最大，我们此前在报告《风险计提之后：偶发冲回与积极对冲》中指出，目前我国外贸直接和间接带动就业人员数估计在 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The April EPMI (Emerging Industry PMI) decreased by 10.2 points to 49.4, marking the largest decline for this month since 2014, with the absolute level being the second lowest for the same period, only higher than April 2022 [1][6][5]. Summary by Sections EPMI Overview - The April EPMI stands at 49.4, down 10.2 points, indicating a significant contraction in emerging industries [6][5]. - Among seven major sub-industries, only three are in the expansion zone, a decrease of four from March [1][7]. Sub-Indicators Analysis - Production, product orders, and export orders fell by 16.1, 15.4, and 17.6 points respectively, with export orders dropping below 40 [2][7]. - The production-to-demand ratio is at 2.6, better than the averages for 2023 and 2024 [2][7]. - Price indicators have also declined, with purchase prices and sales prices down by 4.8 and 4.4 points respectively [2][8]. - Employment indicators fell by 5.9 points, the largest monthly decline in 2023, with foreign trade estimated to support around 170 million jobs, accounting for 24% of total employment [2][7]. - Loan difficulty decreased by 3.3 points, indicating a more relaxed monetary policy environment [2][9]. Manufacturing PMI Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is likely to slow down in April, typically a peak season for industry, but historically shows a slight decline compared to March [3][9]. - High-frequency data indicates a slowdown in industries related to external demand, while domestic demand sectors like steel and coke show stronger operating rates [3][10]. Sector Performance - The energy-saving and environmental protection, as well as the biotechnology sectors, experienced relatively smaller declines, indicating their lower correlation with external demand [3][10]. - The new generation information technology, new energy vehicles, and new energy sectors are leading with a prosperity index above 50, driven by trends in artificial intelligence and supportive policies [3][11]. Policy Response - The EPMI data reflects external demand impacts, prompting policy attention, with the State Council emphasizing the need for counter-cyclical adjustments [4][12]. - A special long-term bond issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan is set to accelerate fiscal progress, with expectations for policy measures to stabilize growth in the upcoming months [4][12].

铝类产业日报 2025/4/2 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 20,435.00 25.00 185,377.00 | -90.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +10.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) -8397.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 2,890.00 -10.00 210,173.00 | -61.00↓ +1.00↑ +17142.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 231,225.00 | -8550.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 323,790.00 | +8837 ...

| 品 种 | 点评 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落，下跌 0.03%至 9692.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.1%至 79820 | | --- | --- | | | 元/吨；现货进口亏损 500 元/吨左右。宏观方面，美国 3 月 ISM 制造业指数 49，不及 预期 49.5 和前值 50.3，该数据今年首次出现萎缩，价格指数飙升，创 2022 年 6 月以来 | | 铜 | 的新高，工厂订单和就业表现低迷，凸显美新政府关税政策对经济的影响。美对等关税 | | | 细节即将落地，白宫宣城 4 月 2 日关税宣布后即生效，多国表示将采取反制措施。国内 | | | 方面，中国 3 月财新制造业 PMI 为 51.2，高于前值 50.8，创 2024 年 12 月来新高，显 | | | 示制造业生产经营活动继续加快扩张。库存方面，LME 铜下增加 1900 吨至 213275 | | | 吨；Comex 铜增加 1223.8 吨至 88473.19 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 1457 吨至 136003 吨； | | | BC 铜仓单维系 15017 吨。COMEX 铜库存连续增仓，或意味着前期套利头 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump may announce tariff details on the evening of April 1st or April 2nd, and Morgan Stanley suggests focusing on whether the announcement can clarify tariff policies and whether the tariff increase is large enough to further deteriorate the economic outlook. "April 2nd" is not the "end of bad news" for US stocks [7]. - For US soybeans, the planting area is in line with expectations but the quarterly inventory is higher than expected. In the medium - short term, the supply pressure is high, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, there is strong support. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US main producing areas and Trump's tariff policies [8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals - **Gold**: Reached a new high. Media reported that the White House is considering "comprehensive high tariffs" again, and Citi said it is a "once - in - 40 - year" opportunity for gold mines [15][17]. - **Silver**: Fell due to the influence of non - ferrous metals [15]. - **Copper**: Due to the expectation of US tariff hikes, the market is cautious. Trump will announce tariff details on April 2nd, and there are also some micro - level events such as changes in China's copper imports and problems at a Chilean smelter [20][22]. - **Aluminum**: In a wide - range shock. The electrolytic aluminum and alumina markets have various data changes, and there are also news about a Vietnamese electrolytic aluminum project and the extraction of Russian aluminum from LME - certified warehouses [23][26]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. China's March official manufacturing PMI was 50.5, with the fastest manufacturing expansion speed in a year [27][28]. - **Lead**: There may be pressure above. China's March official manufacturing PMI was 50.5 [30]. - **Nickel**: Nickel ore supports the cost of the pyrometallurgical process, and the accumulation of refined nickel inventory has not materialized. The Indonesian nickel iron project is gradually resuming production, and there are also policy adjustment signals for nickel resources [32][34]. - **Stainless steel**: In the short - term, the cost logic dominates, and there is still pressure on supply and demand in the medium - term [33]. - **Tin**: Stabilized and rebounded [37]. - **Industrial silicon**: The disk is still in a weak pattern. The market has various data changes such as price, inventory, and profit [41]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the number of warehouse receipts today [41]. - **Carbonate lithium**: The proportion of second - registration without inspection is relatively high, and the disk may be under pressure. There are also news about lithium resource imports and the development of solid - state battery materials [44][47]. 3.2 Energy and Minerals - **Iron ore**: Weakly oscillating. China's March manufacturing PMI was 50.5% [49]. - **Rebar**: Oscillating repeatedly. There are changes in production, inventory, and demand data [50][52]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Oscillating repeatedly. Similar to rebar, there are changes in production, inventory, and demand data [51][52]. - **Silicon iron**: Weakly oscillating due to the weakening of raw material prices [12]. - **Manganese silicon**: In a wide - range shock as the main producing areas are gradually reducing production [12][56]. - **Coke**: The disk is oscillating weakly [12][59]. - **Coking coal**: The disk is oscillating weakly [12][60]. - **Steam coal**: The inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure [64]. 3.3 Chemicals and Others - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures market has price and trading volume changes, and the spot market has a general trading atmosphere [68]. - **Para - xylene**: Supported by cost, with the maintenance of CNOOC Huizhou, a strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA is recommended [71]. - **PTA**: With the reduction of short - fiber and filament FDY production, a strategy of going long on PF and short on PTA is recommended [71]. - **MEG**: In a range - bound market, attention should be paid to the pressure at 4600 [71]. - **Rubber**: Oscillating weakly [12]. - **Synthetic rubber**: Narrowly oscillating in the short - term [12]. - **Asphalt**: Following the rise of crude oil, with a steady reduction in factory inventory [12]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillating in the short - term, and there is still pressure in the later period [12]. - **PP**: The price increased slightly, and the trading volume was average [12]. - **Caustic soda**: Mainly oscillating weakly, attention should be paid to export demand [12]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating weakly [12]. - **Log**: Weakly oscillating [12]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating under pressure [12]. - **Urea**: Oscillating, and the intraday trend depends on spot trading [12]. - **Styrene**: Close short positions [12]. - **Soda ash**: There is little change in the spot market [12]. - **LPG**: Following the rise of crude oil, but the 04 contract is still weak [14]. - **PVC**: Oscillating at a low level [14]. - **Fuel oil**: Rose at night, and may turn significantly stronger in the short - term [14]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Rebounded following crude oil, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external market is temporarily stable [14]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Soybean meal**: The report is neutral, there are still concerns about tariffs, and the US soybeans closed down, so the Dalian soybean meal may follow the decline [14][66]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Fluctuating with the surrounding market and adjusting and oscillating [14][66]. - **Corn**: Oscillating [14][68]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the internal - external price difference [14][69]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - events [14][70]. - **Egg**: The weakness of the spot market exceeded expectations [14][72]. - **Live pig**: The expectation of secondary inventory accumulation is gradually forming [14][73]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the supply [14][74]. 3.5 Crude Oil - Trump is using sanctions and tariff threats to potentially hit the oil revenues of Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. The secondary tariff threats may have a large impact, and the US unilateral policy may subvert the G7 price - cap policy. On March 31st, crude oil futures closed higher [73][74].

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing PMI index for February 2025 shows a slight recovery to 50.6, indicating a phase of resilience in the global economy, but it remains fragile, characterized by "China's stability, emerging markets warming, Europe bottoming out, the US declining, and Canada and Mexico contracting" [1][2]. Regional Analysis - **Asia**: Economic performance remains mixed, with China's manufacturing PMI rising to 50.2 due to accelerated resumption of work and production. Japan and South Korea's PMIs are near the threshold, at 49.0 and 49.9 respectively, while Southeast Asia shows marginal improvement [3]. - **Europe**: Most countries show marginal improvements in manufacturing PMI but remain in contraction territory. Germany's PMI is at 46.5, slightly above previous values, indicating a need for cautious optimism as the Eurozone's GDP growth remains around zero [3]. - **Americas**: Canada and Mexico's manufacturing PMIs have declined, with Canada's PMI dropping significantly from 51.6 to 47.8, indicating a return to contraction [3]. US Manufacturing Insights - The US manufacturing PMI for February is recorded at 50.3, down from 50.9, failing to maintain the earlier signs of resilience. Key indicators show a decline in supply and demand, rising inflation, and a cooling labor market [4]. - The inventory cycle is still in a bottoming phase, and trade issues may continue to impact US foreign trade performance in the second quarter. The expectation is for the US manufacturing PMI to fluctuate around 50 in the first half of the year [4]. Export Trends - South Korea's export growth improved from -10.2% to 1%, influenced by "export rush" and temporary recovery in US manufacturing demand. China's export growth increased by 4.0 percentage points to 10.7% in December 2024 [5]. - Geopolitical factors and the pace of overseas tariff increases will be crucial variables affecting China's export growth in 2025, with potential short-term benefits from "export rush" before tariffs take effect [5].