1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The allocation value of stock indices continues to increase, with a clear upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. - The intention to protect liquidity in the bond market is clear, and the expectation of the bond market has slightly improved, but it is difficult to form a trend - based market [1]. - For precious metals, the short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the - money put options. Silver has a high probability of upward valuation repair [4]. - For base metals, copper, aluminum, and nickel prices are expected to be range - bound, while alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility; methanol and polyolefin prices are expected to decline [10]. - For building materials, the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [8]. - For steel and coal, the prices of steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to be volatile, with a weakening trend [5][8]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices are expected to be range - bound, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market was strong, with communication and non - ferrous metals leading the gains, and home appliances and automobiles leading the losses. The trading volume on Friday decreased slightly to 1.18 trillion yuan. - In June, the A - share market started well, with technology stocks driving market sentiment and slightly boosting trading volume. - Overseas macro uncertainties have reduced global economic growth expectations, but Chinese assets have attracted the attention of foreign institutions. - The upward trend of stock indices is clear, but short - term breakthroughs require an increase in trading volume. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. Bonds - The central bank's intention to protect the market is clear, and the early announcement of repurchase operations has boosted market confidence. - Last Friday, bond futures closed higher. After the China - US call, China - US economic and trade consultations will be held in London. - The macro situation is uncertain, and the bond market is difficult to form a trend - based market. Short - term market conditions are mainly affected by liquidity [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the money put options. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is high, and the valuation of silver is low. If the gold price remains strong, the probability of upward valuation repair of silver increases. It is advisable to hold short out - of - the money put options [4]. Base Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. Macro uncertainties remain high, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. - The demand is affected by macro uncertainties and the domestic consumption off - season. - LME inventories are decreasing, while COMEX and SHFE inventories are increasing. Copper prices are expected to remain range - bound [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The supply is uncertain, but the short - term impact is weakening. The resumption of production is expected to increase supply pressure, and prices may continue to run close to the cost line. - Aluminum: The supply is constrained, with support at the bottom, but the demand policy is uncertain, and the directional driving force is limited [4]. Nickel - The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the supply of refined nickel is in excess. The demand from the stainless steel and new energy sectors is weak. - The price of nickel is expected to remain range - bound, and it is advisable to hold short call options [4]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and geopolitical disturbances continue. The number of US oil rigs has decreased significantly. - The demand for gasoline and diesel in the US is lower than expected. Oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility [10]. Methanol - Overseas methanol plant operating rates have increased, and the price of thermal coal is stable. - Affected by positive factors such as the recovery of olefin plant demand and China - US talks, methanol futures prices have rebounded, but further upside is limited [10]. Polyolefins - The production of polyolefins has increased slightly, and more production capacity is expected to resume this week. - Downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the operating rate is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long the L - PP spread [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - The production of soda ash is expected to increase in June, while demand is weak. The supply is relatively loose, and inventory is high. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the SA509 contract and go short on rebounds near the cash cost line [2][8]. Glass - The glass market has entered the off - season, with weak demand and high inventory. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the FG509 contract and consider long - short spread strategies [8]. Steel and Coal Steel Products - The spot prices of steel products are weak, and demand has entered the off - season. - The results of the China - US trade negotiations will affect market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short call options for rebar and short positions for hot - rolled coils [5][8]. Iron Ore - The static supply - demand structure of imported iron ore is healthy, but the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand may decline. - It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination or short the I2601 contract with a stop - loss [5][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coking coal is in excess, and the price rebound is not sustainable. - The demand for coke is weak, and the price is under pressure [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The weather in the Xinjiang cotton - producing area is normal, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. - It is advisable to hold positions patiently and wait for a breakthrough in the price range [10]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is increasing, while demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [10].

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 2025/6/9 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 0.00% 16,500.00 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,780.00 0.51% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -280.00 -85.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 - -15.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -26.98 -3.90 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -64.60 -2.20 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -45.00 -30.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 5.00 5.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 10.00 -10.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 30,853.00 -0.20% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 49,975.00 -1.01% 成交持仓比 / 0.62 0.82% LME库存 吨 0.00% 281,275.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 41,799.00 0.24% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 1,974.00 -0.35% 沪伦铅价比值 / 8.50 0.87% SMM1#锌锭平均价格 元 ...

虽表声说：我球别货有机公司是经中国近监会做难该立政的货经营机构。已具备期货交易咨询业务员招、本报告外侨及建议所获据的信息均来源于公开资料、本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任例 保证、也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任例变化。我们己力求税告内容的客观、公正、但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成在何投资建议、我贷者获据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资质准 成的一切局景，本公司都不负责、本报告摘视仪的本公司所有，未经书面中可，在何的何个人不得以往何提武器赋、复制政策示。如引用、税、薪法出处处理策划数，且不得才本报告进行信用信息 的引用、删节和修改。数据来源:SHM和VIND。风险提示:明市有风险,投资满谨慎: 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | 变量名称 | 2025-06-06 | 2025-06-05 | 2025-05-30 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 20070 | 20010 | 20070 | 60.00 | | | 沪铝期货活跃 ...

联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.6.3-6.6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 每周观点 上周纯碱期货低位震荡，主力合约SA2509收盘较前一周上涨1.08%报1212元/吨。现货方 面，河北沙河重碱低端价1252元/吨，较前一周上涨1.38%。 供给方面，近期有检修企业即将恢复，6 月份纯碱检修企业较少，供应端呈现小幅增加 趋势，预计周度产量接近73万吨，开工率回升至83%左右。需求端，下游浮法和光伏玻璃需 求一般，周内浮法日熔量15.68万吨，环比下降900吨，光伏日熔量9.88万吨，环比稳定。采 购多延续刚需补库，整体消费量波动不大，下游企业对原材料的储备意向不高。截止6月6日， 全国纯碱厂内库存162.7万吨，较前一周增加0.17%，库存仍处于历史同期高位。综合来看， 纯碱供给小幅 ...

每日观点 螺纹： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-6-9） 1、基本面：需求季节性回升，库存低位小幅减少，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，下游地产行业继续处下行周期； 偏空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3120，基差145；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存385.62万吨，环比减少，同比减少；偏多 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，后市需求降温，国内政策或发力，震荡偏空思路对待 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 利多： 产量库存维持低位，消费环比增长。 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 每日观点 热卷： 1、基本面：供需都有所走弱，库存继续减少，出口受阻，国内政策或发力；中性 2、 ...

玻璃：盘面底部抬升 短线谨慎做空 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/6/9 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 01 投资策略：谨慎做空 主要逻辑 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货探底回升，上涨原因，一是焦煤期货大幅上涨造成成本逻辑联动；二是盘面创新低，空方资金止 盈和多方抄底；三是沙河大幅限产谣言。供给方面，月末两条产线冷修，上周两条产线点火复产，日熔量基本持平。全国厂家 库存小幅回升，假期后企业出货仍显疲弱。华北华中厂商库存回升，其中华中累库明显。主产地普遍下调价格，华东华南部分 厂小幅让利降库，但效果一般。煤炭成本企稳，但全国现货普遍降价，三种工艺利润均有下滑。需求方面，深加工开工偏低， 订单增量较差，整体提货积极性偏淡，刚需采购节奏有所放缓。纯碱方面，同样受焦煤市场情绪影响，盘面回升，但高位库存 对盘面压力仍在，现货需求动力不足，纯碱依旧偏弱看待。 后市展望：上周盘面触底反弹更多还是受价格相对低位的市场情绪影响。但是，玻璃供给库存等基本面因素并未出现 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短期反弹 | 供应扰动增加，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短期反弹 | 多空交织，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短期反弹 核心逻辑：5 月下旬以来，产地部分煤矿因完成月度生产目标，产量有所回落 ...

期 货 研 究 【趋势强度】 锌趋势强度：-1 2025 年 06 月 09 日 锌：上方偏承压 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22385 | 0.20% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2662.5 | -0.95% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 173548 | 26673 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10645 | -762 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 119647 | -4939 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 216963 | -851 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 345 | -110 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -35.6 | -0.09 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# ...

2025 年 6 月 9 日 商 品 研 究 沥青：油价延续震荡 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,509 | 0.34% | 3,561 | 1.48% | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,499 | 0.43% | 3,549 | 1.43% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2507 | 手 | 106,560 | (26,677) | 81,277 | (3,913) | | | BU2508 | 手 | 10,726 | (1,293) | 25,579 | 1,114 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 91510 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 ...

2025 年 6 月 9 日 商 品 研 究 焦炭：三轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 焦煤：事故扰动，宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 漆跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 778.5 | 21.5 | 2. 84% | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1350. 5 | 8.5 | 0. 63% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1558449 | 556894 | -22924 | | | | J2509 | 33479 | 53370 | -90 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1180 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1180 | 漆跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | | | | | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 893 | 893 | 0 0 | | | | 吕梁低 ...