商 品 研 究 豆粕：USDA 报告偏空&天气良好，或偏弱震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面仍震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 2025 年 07 月 14 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4101 -9 | （-0.22%） | 4110 | +12 （+0.29%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2976 | +33（+1.12%） | 2975 | +4（+0.13%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1007.5 | -6.25（-0.62%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 284 | -1.3（-0.46%） | | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2850～2890， 较昨+20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - For corn, the international corn price has an advantage due to the good initial growth condition in the US. In the domestic market, the cooling of imported corn auction transactions, strong selling intention of grain holders, increasing feed substitution of wheat, and weakening feed demand have led to a decline in corn prices. The corn futures price continued to fall this week, showing overall weakness [8]. - For corn starch, although the production loss of corn starch enterprises has reduced the supply pressure, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and the inventory has increased. Affected by the decline of corn prices, the starch futures price has also shown a weak oscillation recently [12]. - The strategy for both corn and corn starch is to focus on short - term trading [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The corn futures price fluctuated and declined this week. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The excellent rate of US corn is high, and the international corn price has an advantage. In the domestic market, the cooling of auction transactions, increased market supply, and substitution of wheat have led to weakening prices [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - term trading [7]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The Dalian corn starch futures price fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2656 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The production loss has reduced the supply pressure, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. Affected by the decline of corn prices, the starch price has shown a weak oscillation [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - term trading [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The corn futures September contract continued to decline, with a total position of 1030900 lots, an increase of 85554 lots compared with the previous week. The corn starch futures September contract also declined, with a total position of 247864 lots, an increase of 69516 lots compared with the previous week [18]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 30902, and the net short position decreased compared with the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 9506, and the net short position also decreased [24]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn was 196479, and that of corn starch was 21979 [30]. Spot Price and Basis - As of July 10, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2426.86 yuan/ton, and the basis between the September futures price and the spot price was + 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, with a slightly decreasing trend. The basis between the September futures price and the Jilin spot price was 194 yuan/ton [35][39]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 75 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 44 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [45]. Futures Spread - The spread between the September contracts of starch and corn was 350 yuan/ton. In the 28th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [53]. Substitute Spread - As of July 10, 2025, the spread between wheat and corn was 18.64 yuan/ton. In the 28th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 139 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [58]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 88.6 tons, a decrease of 15.5 tons compared with the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 1.3 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared with the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 259.6 tons, a decrease of 12.8 tons compared with the previous week, and the shipping volume was 41.8 tons, an increase of 16.6 tons compared with the previous week [49]. - **Monthly Import**: In May 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 190,000 tons, a decrease of 860,000 tons (81.9%) compared with the same period last year and an increase of 10,000 tons compared with the previous month [67]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 10, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.58 days, a decrease of 0.38 days compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.38% [71]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. At the end of May, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [75]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of July 4, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 119.72 yuan/head, and that of purchased piglets was - 26.26 yuan/head [79]. - **Processing Profit**: As of July 11, 2025, the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 66 yuan/ton. The processing profit of corn alcohol in Henan was - 585 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 399 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 85 yuan/ton [84]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.436 million tons, an increase of 1.88% [88]. - **Starch Production and Inventory**: From July 3 to July 9, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 536,700 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons compared with the previous week; the national corn starch production was 259,400 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared with the previous week; the weekly operation rate was 50.14%, a decrease of 1.06% compared with the previous week. As of July 9, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.337 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared with the previous week, a weekly increase of 1.83%, a monthly increase of 2.14%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.97% [92]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of July 11, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 7.67%, a decrease of 1.05% compared with 8.72% in the previous week. The implied volatility continued to decline this week and was at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95].

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 11 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员 ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250711: 择机做多MTO利润 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 | 单位 | 2025/7/10 | 2025/7/9 | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (絶对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2434.00 | 2463.00 | -29.00 | -1.18% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2360.00 | 2380.00 | -20.00 | -0.84% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2372.00 | 2398.00 | -26.00 | -1.08% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2390.00 | 2380.00 | 10.00 | 0.42% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2255.00 | 2275.00 | -20.00 | -0.88% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2412.50 | 2400.00 | 12.50 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase, while secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and high costs. As the demand gradually shifts from the off - season to the peak season, the drag on lead prices may ease. Overall, raw material shortages and peak - season expectations support lead prices, but high prices may limit the upside [1]. - For zinc, zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate is expected to improve, and smelter production and profits are improving. However, high zinc prices and weak downstream demand lead to limited upside for zinc prices, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the positive factors fade [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Data - **Lead**: On July 11, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract was 17,230 yuan/ton (up 0.32% from the previous day), the basis was - 230 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 6.39% to 30,897 lots, while the open interest increased by 0.52% to 52,534 lots [1]. - **Zinc**: On July 11, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,330 yuan/ton (up 1.09% from the previous day), the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract was 22,385 yuan/ton (up 1.20% from the previous day), the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 5.21% to 146,456 lots, while the open interest decreased by 1.85% to 112,634 lots [1]. Industry News - **Lead**: An East - China secondary lead smelter is expected to increase production by about 3,500 tons compared to last month. A Central - China primary lead smelter resumed normal production after a weekend equipment failure. As of July 10, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 61,100 tons, an increase of 4,200 tons from July 3 and 3,200 tons from July 7 [1]. - **Zinc**: A North - China zinc mine plans to conduct a 10 - day maintenance in August, affecting nearly 1,000 metal tons of zinc concentrate. The recent tender result of a North - China zinc mine was 5,450 yuan/ton (including 20 - 80 sharing). As of July 10, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 90,300 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from July 3 and 1,200 tons from July 7 [1]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 11 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 豆粕：等待 USDA 报告，反弹震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4105 -7（-0.17%） | 4096 -14（-0.34%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2954 +14（+0.48%） | 2972 +29 （+0.99%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1014 +6.75（+0.67%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 285.3 +2.4（+0.85%） | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2800～2880， 较昨-20至持平； 平;10-11月M2601+60/+80/+100/+110， | 8月M2509-30， 持平； 8-9月M25 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游玻璃盘面回升，提振纯碱市场情绪。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1194元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1231元/吨，基差为-37元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.34万吨，较前一周增加2.98%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：纯碱 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX is in a unilateral volatile market, with a trend strength of 0. Suggest a positive spread arbitrage for the monthly spread and short PXN01 at high levels. The supply - demand pattern is tight, but PXN valuation is high and the trend is weak [1][7]. - PTA should focus on the production cut situation of filament factories. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread arbitrage for the monthly spread and go long MEG while shorting PTA. The trend strength is 0. The basis has fallen to single - digits, and the supply will be marginally loose from mid - July, with the possibility of continuous inventory accumulation [1][7]. - MEG is in a low - inventory, unilateral volatile market, with a trend strength of 1. The cost - end coal price is strong, and it is recommended to conduct a positive spread arbitrage for the basis and monthly spread, and not to chase short on the unilateral valuation [1][7]. Summary by Directory Market Overview - **PX**: A 700,000 - ton PX unit in Southeast Asia is gradually resuming its load after a reduction in late June due to an olefin - end fault. Another 530,000 - ton PX unit in Southeast Asia stopped for maintenance in early July, 15 days ahead of schedule, and is expected to restart in mid - August, with a pure benzene production capacity of about 300,000 tons [3]. - **PTA**: In mainland China, the load of Yisheng Hainan and Yisheng Dalian PTA units has returned to normal, and the PTA load has reached 79.7% as of Thursday. The current operating rate is around 85.8%. A 1.5 - million - ton PTA unit in Taiwan, China has restarted after a maintenance that started in early June [3]. - **MEG**: From July 7th to July 13th, the arrival quantities at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, and Ningbo ports are about 31,000 tons, 37,000 tons, and 28,000 tons respectively, with a total planned arrival at major ports of about 96,000 tons. As of July 10th, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 67.57% (a 1.06% increase from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) method is 73.13% (a 3.79% increase from the previous period). Since June 1st, 2025, the ethylene glycol production capacity base in mainland China has been adjusted to 29.175 million tons, and the total production capacity of syngas - to - ethylene glycol is 10.96 million tons [5]. - **Polyester**: The load of polyester is in a fluctuating decline. As of Thursday this week, the polyester load in mainland China is around 88.9%. A 600,000 - ton polyester unit in Huzhou has restarted after a short - term maintenance. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 10th were temporarily weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 50% - 60% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fibers on the 10th improved moderately compared to the 9th, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 63% by 3:00 pm [5][6]. Trend Strength - PX trend strength: 0 [7]. - PTA trend strength: 0 [7]. - MEG trend strength: 1 [7]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures**: The closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, and monthly spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures are provided, along with the price changes compared to the previous day [2]. - **Spot**: The prices and price changes of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent are presented [2]. - **Spot Processing Fees**: The prices and price changes of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread are given [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyolefins (including propylene and polyethylene): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyester (including PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip): ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Chlor - alkali (including PVC and caustic soda): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows a mixed performance with different trends for each product. Some products are affected by supply - demand changes, seasonal factors, and policy expectations, while others are influenced by macro - market sentiment and cost factors [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol futures market rebounds. MTO device operation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions declines, import demand weakens, and port inventory accumulates. Some olefin failures in the northwest lead to inventory build - up of supporting methanol. There are many planned methanol device overhauls, which support the market, but demand is weak in the off - season, so the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] Urea - The urea futures market is strongly oscillating. Rainy weather boosts agricultural fertilizer demand, supply - demand improves marginally, and enterprise inventory decreases. Port inventory accumulates rapidly. The latest Indian tender price boosts market sentiment. In the short - term, the market is strongly oscillating, but later, agricultural demand will enter the off - season, and new policy guidance is awaited [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures rise, but the increase is weaker than other chemicals due to weak fundamentals. The polyethylene market sentiment improves slightly, but there is limited upward momentum. Polypropylene standard products follow the futures price increase, but non - standard product demand is weak [4] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market is strong due to high oil prices and improved spot trading. Port inventory accumulation slows down, and downstream purchasing improves. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage, but pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate based on seasonal supply - demand trends, conduct monthly spread band trading, and consider short - selling at high prices [6] Styrene - Styrene futures rise significantly, driven by the sharp increase in the price of general benzene. The cost increase improves market trading sentiment, and the futures price increase drives factories to raise prices, with good trading volume [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise slightly, and the monthly spread is weak. PX load decreases, PTA load increases, and PTA supply - demand eases. Ethylene glycol inventory decreases, and the price is strong. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices rise slightly with raw material prices. Short - fiber inventory may increase, and bottle - chip enterprises cut production [8] Chlor - alkali - PVC is strong due to real - estate rumors, but downstream orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulates. New production capacity is released, and domestic demand is weak. Caustic soda continues to rise, with reduced enterprise operation and inventory, but long - term supply pressure remains [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures rise significantly due to real - estate rumors and industry inventory reduction. Soda ash is strong in the macro - environment, but inventory pressure is high, and long - term demand is expected to decline [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, raw material tightness and peak - season expectations support the lead price, with short - term prices expected to be range - bound and firm. However, high lead prices may limit downstream purchasing, capping the upside potential [1]. - For zinc, recent macro - positive sentiment and supply - side disruptions have led to a rebound in zinc prices. But the rebound suppresses downstream purchasing, causing inventory accumulation and limited upside. Opportunities to short may emerge after positive factors fade [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Prices and Trading Data**: SMM1 lead ingot average price rose 0.59% to 17,000 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract closing price rose 0.09% to 17,175 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased 7.42% to 33,005 lots, while the open interest increased 1.25% to 52,261 lots. The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) rose 0.71% to 2,058.5 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased 0.62% to 8.34 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, rising scrap lead - acid battery prices, limited supplies, and hoarding by recyclers have led to some refineries reducing or halting production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. Demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, which may reduce the drag on lead prices [1]. - **Industry News**: In June, the silver by - product output of primary lead smelters increased 1.3% month - on - month. In July, it may decline slightly due to regular maintenance. The additional tariff negotiation for the US REDDOG lead ore may end with both parties sharing the cost, and the ore will enter the domestic market by the end of the third quarter. Zhongse Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary plans to expand the production scale of the Baiyinnuoer lead - zinc mine from 990,000 tons/year to 1.65 million tons/year [1]. Zinc - **Prices and Trading Data**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.55% to 22,090 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract closing price rose 0.32% to 22,120 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased 2.53% to 154,513 lots, and the open interest decreased 3.46% to 114,762 lots. The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) rose 0.86% to 2,742.5 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased 0.54% to 8.07 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate has improved, reducing production constraints and cost support. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have increased, with an obvious upward trend in output. Demand is weak, and downstream buyers mainly make purchases based on rigid needs [1]. - **Industry News**: In the second quarter of 2025, the Kipushi zinc mine in Congo (Kinshasa) produced 41,800 metal tons of zinc concentrate. In June, production was affected by capacity - bottleneck upgrades and low - grade ore processing. After the first - stage upgrade, the daily available time of the DMS system increased from 6 to 16 hours. The second - stage upgrade in August is expected to increase the annual processing capacity from 800,000 to 960,000 tons, and the DMS available time to 22 hours/day. The annual zinc production guidance remains at 180,000 - 240,000 tons [1].