Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the market experienced a significant increase in indices, but a subsequent decline in bank stocks suggests potential risks due to rapid price increases [1] - The rare simultaneous inflow of institutional and main funds into aggressive sectors indicates a possible bullish trend for small-cap stocks next week [1] - The performance of the securities sector is crucial, as it remained stable during the market downturn, supporting small-cap stocks [1] Group 2 - The rare occurrence of a strong performance in the rare earth sector, driven by positive news and price increases, suggests it may continue to perform well next week [1] - The technology sector, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 index, has lagged but shows signs of recovery, potentially leading to a rebound in tech stocks [1] - The market sentiment may shift towards small-cap stocks if banks continue to decline, indicating a possible resurgence for mid and small-cap stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple favorable factors are driving risk assets higher, with Goldman Sachs traders predicting a "melt-up" market this summer, driven by strong momentum in AI, bank stocks, Nvidia, Chinese equities, Bitcoin, and copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Environment - The current market is not in a position for a significant downturn unless an external shock occurs, suggesting a strong forward-looking market that should follow price trends rather than overanalyze macro signals [2] - The U.S. economy is in the mid-to-late stage of the business cycle with no signs of recession and strong earnings growth, while interest rate cuts are still anticipated [3] - Market sentiment is shifting positively but has not yet reached a euphoric state, indicating further room for growth [4] - Structural cycles show low macro volatility combined with a digital productivity boom, reminiscent of the 1990s environment [5] Group 2: Risk Appetite and Stock Performance - Goldman Sachs' risk appetite indicator shows one of the most rapid recoveries in history, similar to the performance seen in 2020 [6] - Cyclical stocks are expected to outperform defensive stocks, with bank stocks showing particularly strong performance, indicating that they are a key indicator of economic health [8] Group 3: Inflation and Growth Dynamics - Real inflation is broadly cooling, and the market has moved past growth concerns, with inflation still being a primary risk for most clients [9] - The combination of slowing inflation and accelerating earnings is expected to lead to an expansion in valuation multiples, creating a favorable environment for the stock market, especially in a low volatility context [9] - Current volatility conditions resemble those of the late 2018 to early 2019 bull market setup, with low policy rates suppressing volatility and maintaining ample liquidity [9] Group 4: Emerging Markets and Global Trends - Signs of recovery are observed in China and emerging markets, with the current environment likened to the emerging market rebound from 2009 to 2015, albeit with different leading sectors focused on technology, AI, and local themes [10] - Breakthrough signals in the Chinese stock market and Bitcoin indicate rising risk appetite and the formation of a re-inflation theme in emerging markets, benefiting countries like Poland and Greece from cyclical and reform-driven tailwinds [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose with a weekly increase of about 0.76%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. The international cotton market is affected by factors such as the US cotton export sales report and weather, while the domestic textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with weak demand and cautious raw material procurement by enterprises. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang supports the price to fluctuate strongly. Overall, the market shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. In the international market, the US cotton export sales report was not as expected, and the favorable weather led to an increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton, suppressing the price of US cotton. In the domestic market, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. As of July 10, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and there is a high risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang, which supports the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the weak demand drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger oscillatory. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in the price of foreign cotton, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.04%. As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 5.61% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position decreased by 1.86% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 14.91% month - on - month [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 3, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 75,100 bales, a 217% increase compared to the previous four weeks and a 55% increase compared to the four - week average. The cotton export volume was 240,900 bales, a 6% decrease compared to the previous week and a 9% increase compared to the four - week average. As of July 8, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.75 cents per pound, a 0.51% month - on - month decrease [14]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 15,063, and that in cotton yarn futures was 29 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,850, and that of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 91 [19][24][31]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contract was 65 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,224 yuan per ton [32]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,266 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,490 yuan per ton. As of July 10, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,560 yuan per ton [37][46]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 9, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index):M was 13,545 yuan per ton, a 0.64% month - on - month decrease; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,324 yuan per ton, a 0.37% month - on - month decrease. The port pick - up price of the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):C32S was 21,061 yuan per ton, a 0.08% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of C21S was 20,086 yuan per ton, a 0.10% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of JC32S was 22,990 yuan per ton, a 0.09% month - on - month increase [52]. - **Imported Cotton Cost and Profit**: As of July 9, 2025, the cost profit of the imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 816 yuan per ton, and the cost profit of the imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,561 yuan per ton [55]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 693,900 tons or - 16.71%, and a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons or - 8.36%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [59]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 86.3%. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 20,000 tons or 14.5%, and a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons or about 16.67%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.8% [63]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [67]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, the export of textiles was 420.14 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase, and the export of clothing was 418.19 billion yuan, a 0.6% increase. In May, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% year - on - year increase and an 8.9% month - on - month increase. Among them, the export of textiles was 91 billion yuan, a 2.3% decrease and a 0.9% month - on - month increase, and the export of clothing was 97.84 billion yuan, a 2.6% increase and a 17.6% month - on - month increase [71]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [76]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [80].

瑞达期货研究院 「 周度要点小结」 「2025.07.11」 白糖市场周报 内强外内格局凸显， 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 行情分析： 3 本周郑糖2509合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约0.4%。 国际方面，季风雨季来临，亚洲主要产糖国供应前景良好，加上巴西出口量 同比增加，供应偏松预期抑制原糖价格，不过巴基斯坦计划进口50万吨以及 以及机构调查数据显示6月下半月巴西中南部地区糖产量同比减少，为原糖带 来短期支撑。巴西船运机构Williams数据显示，截至7月9日当周，巴西港口 等待装运食糖的船只数量为90艘，此前一周为80艘。港口等待装运的食糖数 量为368.55万吨，此前一周为320.59万吨。国内方面，内外价格走势分化， 配额外利润窗口打开，进口压力将释放，压制糖价。需求端，夏季消费旺季， 食品饮料行业存有备货需求，冷饮等季节性消费回暖，为价格带来一定支撑。 总体来说，近期国内白糖走势跟随原糖反复波动，不过国内需求回升， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs increased slightly, with the main contract rising 0.28% weekly. In the short - term, the supply is still tight as the mid - month increase in large - scale farm slaughter is slow, and smallholders are reluctant to sell, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing. However, there is supply pressure in the medium - term as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. [6][10] - On the demand side, high temperatures suppress pork purchasing, and with schools on holiday, the terminal sales are slow, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has declined continuously but is higher than last year. Overall, it's the off - season for consumption, and demand is weakening steadily. The slaughter rhythm of farmers and the entry of second - fattening are key factors affecting short - term market conditions. [6] - Currently, tight supply supports a strong price oscillation, but the increase may slow down as the mid - month slaughter volume may recover. In the medium - term, the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure will limit the price upside. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price increased slightly, with the main contract rising 0.28% weekly. [6][10] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term supply is tight, medium - term has supply pressure; demand is in the off - season and weakening. The slaughter rhythm and second - fattening entry are key short - term factors. [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Interval trading or 9 - 1 positive spread trading. [6] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The futures price increased slightly this week, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. As of July 11, the net short position was 16,877 lots, an increase of 6,313 lots from last week, and there were 447 futures warrants, a decrease of 3 from last week. [10][12][16] 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average live pig price was 14.92 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.37 yuan/kg from last week but an increase of 4.48% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week but a decrease of 0.32% from last month. [27] - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national average pork price was 25.35 yuan/kg in the week of July 3, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. [31] - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of July 2, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.21, an increase of 0.08 from the previous week, but still below the break - even point. [36] 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows increased. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data showed that the inventory was 40.42 million heads at the end of May, a 0.1% month - on - month increase and a 1.15% year - on - year increase, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. Mysteel data also showed an increase in both large - scale farms and small - scale farms. [41] - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a decrease of 10.12 million heads from the end of the previous quarter but an increase of 8.81 million heads year - on - year. In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small - scale farms increased month - on - month according to Mysteel data. [44] - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight decreased. The average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid live pigs this week was 123.50 kg, a slight decrease of 0.02 kg from last week. [49] 3.3.2. Industry Profit - **Livestock Farming Profit**: As of July 11, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 31.6 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan/head week - on - week. [54] - **Poultry Farming Profit**: As of July 11, the profit of laying hens was - 0.69 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 0.11 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was - 0.92 yuan/head. [54] 3.3.3. Domestic Market - In the first five months of 2025, China imported a total of 450,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a 4.65% year - on - year increase, and it was at a historically low level during the same period. [55][59] 3.3.4. Substitute Products - As of the week of July 11, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of July 10, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from last week. [62] 3.3.5. Feed - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of July 11, the spot price of soybean meal was 2,914.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2,421.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.7 yuan/ton from the previous week. [68] - **Feed Index and Price**: As of July 11, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 935.32, a 1.63% decrease from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. [71] - **Feed Production**: In May 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.621 million tons, an increase of 0.981 million tons month - on - month. [76] 3.3.6. CPI - As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year. [80] 3.3.7. Downstream - **Slaughter Enterprises**: In the 28th week, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 25.22%, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points from last week but 5.48 percentage points higher year - on - year. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.46%, an increase of 3% from last week. [83] - **Slaughter Volume and Catering**: In May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, a 4.52% increase from the previous month. The national catering revenue in May was 457.82 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. [88] 3.3.8. Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided. [89][91]

Group 1 - The market has not shown any signals indicating the end of the upward trend, and the recent fluctuations are seen as a consolidation behavior, suggesting that the market can continue to rise next week [1][2] - Despite the pullback in the major indices, there has been no significant outflow of capital from the market, indicating that buying pressure remains strong [1] - The market is still above the 5-day moving average and key breakout levels, which supports the continuation of the upward trend [1] Group 2 - The recent pullback is primarily observed in the banking sector, which has experienced significant gains recently, while other sectors such as metals, brokerage, rare earths, and pharmaceuticals continue to show upward momentum [2] - The presence of strong buying interest in various sectors suggests that the overall market trend is not ending, but rather experiencing a temporary correction [2] - The current market behavior is characterized as a short-term consolidation, with expectations for further upward movement in the coming week [2]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in A-shares has experienced significant growth, with major banks reaching historical highs and outperforming key market indices, driven by improvements in asset quality and stable earnings [2][3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for the Surge in Bank Stocks - The recent strong performance of A-share bank stocks is attributed to both fundamental and liquidity factors [2]. - Fundamental factors include improved asset quality and stable profitability, with core earnings showing signs of recovery [2]. - Liquidity factors highlight significant increases in insurance fund investments in bank stocks, driven by a search for stable returns amid low bond yields [3]. - Public funds have also increased their allocation to bank stocks, with a rise in the proportion of active funds holding bank shares from 3.72% to 4% [4]. Group 2: Performance Metrics of Bank Stocks - The average return of the top 20 performing bank stocks in A-shares has reached 28.54%, with eight stocks gaining over 30% year-to-date [7]. - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio of these top-performing bank stocks is 0.70, indicating they are generally undervalued [8]. - Notable stocks include Qingdao Bank, which has seen a year-to-date increase of 38.02% and a dividend yield of 3.08% [7][8]. Group 3: Fund Holdings in Bank Stocks - Several bank stocks have garnered significant interest from public funds, with four banks having fund ownership ratios exceeding 6% [9]. - Chengdu Bank leads with a fund holding ratio of 8.94%, followed by China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank, which also have substantial fund backing [10]. Group 4: Earnings Performance of Bank Stocks - Among A-share listed banks, several have reported impressive earnings growth, with Hangzhou Bank achieving a net profit growth of 17.30% year-on-year [11]. - The analysis indicates that banks with double-digit profit growth include Changshu Bank, which also saw revenue growth exceeding 10% [11][12].

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/11 棉花：棉花库存数据下降过快，以此计算的表需较高，若这样下去，季末去库不可避免，带动近期棉价上行，不过上方仍有套保盘压制，同时 下游订单、利润和开机均较弱，对高棉价接受度也有限，建议对本轮上涨持谨慎态度。若需求进一步恶化或出现宏观风险，棉价或进一步下 行，若均没有，将持续在目前位置震荡。 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/04 | - | 2330 | 2450 | 2460 | -23 | 0 | 423 | 2850 | 2950 | 128 | -66 | | 2025/07/07 | - | 2320 | 2420 | 2460 | -6 | 10 | 423 | 2850 | 2950 | 165 | -6 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant upward trend in gold prices during the day, indicating a strong market movement [1] - It mentions the acceleration of US-EU tariff negotiations, which could impact market dynamics and investor sentiment [1] - The article suggests that the trend during the European trading session is being closely monitored, with live updates provided by a team member [1]

美元反弹未破阻力，黄金反弹再回落，未站上心理关口？现在看涨风险是否过高？点击查看详细分析！ 相关链接 黄金支撑减弱，避险行情再启？ ...