Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a steady increase in value and trading activity, reflecting a shift in policy focus from monetary to fiscal measures, particularly in the real estate sector [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 1, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera rose by 0.01%, with a latest price of 108.51 yuan [3]. - The ETF has accumulated a 0.28% increase over the past week as of August 29, 2025 [3]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 19.308 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [4]. - The ETF's shares reached 1.78 million, also a one-year high [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Fund Flows - The ETF experienced an active trading environment with a turnover rate of 11.55% and a transaction volume of 2.23 billion yuan [3]. - Over the past ten days, the ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.504 billion yuan, totaling 3.689 billion yuan in net inflows [4]. - The latest margin buying amount for the ETF reached 280 million yuan, with a margin balance of 202 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Historical Performance and Returns - The ETF has achieved a net value increase of 6.74% over the past year, ranking 12th out of 422 index bond funds, placing it in the top 2.84% [5]. - The highest single-month return since inception was 5.35%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being four months and a maximum gain of 10.58% [5]. - The average monthly return during up months was 2.09%, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [5]. Group 4: Risk and Management Fees - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5]. - The tracking error over the past three months was 0.055%, indicating a close alignment with the underlying index [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current lack of demand remains a core issue for the economy, with expectations for fiscal policy to strengthen in the second half of the year, potentially leading to revenue recovery in various sectors from a low base [1] Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, the overall revenue of listed construction companies decreased by 5.7%, with Q1 and Q2 showing declines of 6.1% and 5.3% respectively, primarily due to local fiscal constraints and a sluggish real estate market [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in the construction industry fell by 6.2% in H1, with Q1 and Q2 declines of 8.7% and 3.5% respectively, although the rate of decline has narrowed [1] Profitability - The gross profit margin for the sector decreased by 0.2 percentage points, influenced by a reduction in high-margin investment projects and challenges in the real estate sector [2] - The impairment scale decreased significantly by 17% compared to the first half of 2024, contributing to a more stable net profit margin of 2.34% in H1, which remained relatively unchanged year-on-year [2] Asset and Operational Quality - The asset-liability ratio increased both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, attributed to tighter local government funding and a relatively loose financing environment [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities showed a net outflow of 496.9 billion yuan in H1, which was a reduction in outflow by 22.5 billion yuan year-on-year [3] Contract Signing - In H1 2025, the nine major central enterprises signed new contracts worth 7.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, outperforming the overall construction industry which saw a 6% decline [4] - The overseas contract signing maintained robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 16% in H1, while domestic contracts faced a decline of 2% [4]

Group 1 - Liz Truss criticizes the independence of central banks, suggesting they should be accountable to politicians, indicating a shift in the traditional view of central bank autonomy [1][3] - Truss supports Donald Trump's interventionist stance on the Federal Reserve, claiming that a "clearing moment" for global central banks is approaching [1][2] - The Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, is considering reclaiming some of the Bank of England's powers, reflecting a growing sentiment against central bank independence in the UK [3][4] Group 2 - Trump's potential legal battle over the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could lead to a more dovish majority in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), impacting U.S. monetary policy [2] - Market reactions to Trump's influence on the Fed include a decline in the U.S. dollar and a drop in short-term Treasury yields, indicating increased uncertainty regarding monetary policy [2] - The criticism of central banks is linked to rising concerns over economic management, with Truss highlighting the negative impact of bureaucratic decisions on housing affordability for young people in the UK [3][5]

Global Economic Overview - The US economy is in a recovery phase, with the S&P 500 index reaching new highs, while US Treasury yields remain stable[1] - The US has implemented a new round of tariffs, with a trade agreement framework reached with multiple countries, though key terms are yet to be executed[1] - Inflation risks coexist with a cooling labor market, leaving the Federal Reserve in a difficult position regarding monetary policy[1] Domestic Economic Conditions - The real estate sector in China continues to face contraction pressures, with the effectiveness of policies like "trade-in for new" diminishing[1] - Government policies in August leaned more towards fiscal measures rather than monetary easing, maintaining high real interest rates that suppress economic vitality[1] - The demand remains weak, with low price levels persisting in the domestic market[1] Asset Allocation Insights - International stock markets are the primary source of profit, benefiting from a weaker dollar and improved international trade conditions[1] - The report suggests a bullish outlook on copper prices and a hedging strategy with oil, while being bearish on international bond markets[1] - The global asset allocation index indicates a shift towards equities, particularly in non-US markets, as the dollar weakens[1] Risks and Challenges - Risks include domestic macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations, potential overseas economic recession, commodity price volatility, and unexpected shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy[2]

Group 1 - The new regulations for existing PPP projects are expected to accelerate construction progress and alleviate operational debts for construction companies [1] - The cumulative growth rate of funds in place for fixed asset investment from January to July is 1.0%, showing improvement compared to previous months [1] - The growth rate of budgetary funds increased by 9.4% in the same period, indicating a positive trend in fiscal revenue [1] Group 2 - New signed orders in the construction industry are under pressure, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% in the first half of 2025 [2] - The cumulative investment in projects that have commenced construction from January to July reached 24.2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.8% [2] Group 3 - The physical workload in key sectors such as energy, transportation, and water conservancy is showing marginal weakness, with production declines in cement, steel, glass, and asphalt [3] - The price of steel increased by 2.1% month-on-month, while cement and asphalt prices decreased [3] Group 4 - The growth rate of broad infrastructure investment from January to July is 7.3%, slightly slowing down compared to previous months [4] - Fixed asset investment completion reached 28.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [4] - Specific sectors like electricity and water supply are seeing significant investment growth, while transportation and water management are maintaining lower growth rates [4] Group 5 - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises with strong fundamentals and low valuations under a more proactive fiscal policy [5] - It highlights three paths for industry maturation: competition among existing players, regional investment opportunities, and the development of new productive forces [5] - Recommended companies for investment include China State Construction, China Railway, and China Communications Construction [5]

股债调整，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期。（2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年7月金融数据显示，M1、M2同比增速分别回升至5.6%和8.8%，剪刀差收窄至3.2%，表 明流动性充裕、企业活期资金活跃度提升，但信贷派生效率偏弱，居民与企业中长期贷款持续收缩，投资和消费 需求不足。社融存量同比仅9%，结构上主要依赖政府债券发行加杠杆托底，企业中长期融资需求依然低迷，大量 资金流向非银机构。利率品市场呈现政府债供给显著增加、机构被动增配的格局，后续走势取决于实体融资需求 修复及财政发行节奏。（4）央行：2025-08-27，央行以固定利率1.4%、数量招标方式开展了379 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the acceleration of government bond issuance and utilization as part of a proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth [1][2][6] - As of August 26, 2023, the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds reached 996 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 76.6% [2][6] - Local government special bonds have been issued at a scale of 31,497.6 billion yuan, representing a 40% increase compared to the same period last year [6][7] Group 2 - The plan for 2025 includes issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long special government bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan from 2024, focusing on key areas [2] - The funds from ultra-long special government bonds are expected to support significant investments, including 1 trillion yuan in total investment driven by 188 billion yuan allocated for equipment updates [2][9] - The use of local government special bonds has expanded, with 28.2% allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18.8% to transportation infrastructure, and 12.9% to land reserves [7][8] Group 3 - The issuance of local government special bonds is expected to stabilize and improve the real estate market by funding land reserves and the acquisition of existing properties [8][9] - The government is actively expanding the scope of special bond usage, including investments in government investment guidance funds [8][9] - Experts predict that the combined efforts of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds will significantly stimulate investment and support domestic demand [9][10]

Report Summary 1) Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - Domestic bond market faces short - term pressure from supply and capital disturbances. The central bank maintains a loose stance but with limited policy support, causing the rebound of Treasury bond futures to be weak due to rising capital interest rates. - The Fed's stance in the US has turned dovish, leading to improved short - term risk appetite and increased pressure on the steepening of the interest rate curve. - The differences in the capital and policy stances between the Chinese and US bond markets are widening, with China being moderately tight and the US moving towards easing [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a - 0.20% month - on - month decrease and - 3.60% year - on - year decrease. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.24%); M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, up 0.50% (+6.02%); Manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, down 0.40% (-0.80%). - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.23, down 0.19 (-0.19%); USD/CNH (offshore) is 7.1541, down 0.014 (-0.19%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47, down 0.02 (-1.15%); DR007 is 1.49, down 0.03 (-1.85%); R007 is 1.67, down 0.26 (-13.67%); AAA - rated 3 - month interbank certificates of deposit yield is 1.55, with no change (+0.00, - 0.11%); AA - AAA 1 - year credit spread is 0.09, up 0.01 (-0.11%) [9][10]. b. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report presents multiple charts related to the market, including the closing price trend of Treasury bond futures' main continuous contracts, the price change rate of each Treasury bond futures variety, the trend of the funds settled in each Treasury bond futures variety, the proportion of open interest in each Treasury bond futures variety, the net open - interest proportion of the top 20 in each Treasury bond futures variety, the long - short open - interest ratio of the top 20 in each Treasury bond futures variety, the spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [14][15][22]. c. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation The report shows charts about the bank - to - bank pledged repo transaction statistics and local government bond issuance [25]. d. Spread Overview The report provides charts on the inter - period spread trend of each Treasury bond futures variety and various spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [28][36][38]. e. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [48][51]. f. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][59]. g. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report has charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [60][64][61]. h. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [67][72]. 4) Strategies - Unilateral strategy: As the repo interest rate falls and the Treasury bond futures price fluctuates, it is recommended to short the 2512 contract at high prices [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the TF2512 basis [5]. - Hedging strategy: Since there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - position holders can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [5].

Core Viewpoint - UBS indicates that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole displayed a "classic Powell style," signaling an increased probability of a rate cut in September to counteract the drag from trade tariffs, but lacking a mid-term policy framework for an economy facing structural changes [1] Group 1 - The market welcomed the hints of a rate cut, but UBS believes the core message is essentially "data-dependent rhetoric wrapped in fancy language" [1] - UBS pointed out that Powell did not provide a stronger defense of the Federal Reserve's independence, which may lead to potential political influences from Trump on the Fed [1] Group 2 - Potential consequences of a politicized Federal Reserve include: 1) Reignition of inflation uncertainty 2) An increase in actual borrowing costs by an entire percentage point 3) Ripple effects on fiscal policy, corporate investment, housing affordability, household savings, and speculative activities [1]

Revenue Insights - In July 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, improving from a decline of -0.3% in June[1] - Tax revenue grew by 5.0% in July, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 1.0%, while non-tax revenue fell by 12.9%[5] - The cumulative general public budget revenue from January to July showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of -0.3% previously[7] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in July rose by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from May[8] - Cumulative expenditure from January to July grew by 3.4%, slightly below the average progress of 54.4% over the past five years, completing 54.1% of the annual budget[9] Government Fund Performance - In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year-on-year, although this was a decrease of 11.9 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Government fund expenditure in July surged by 42.4% year-on-year, despite a slowdown of 36.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - From January to July, government fund expenditure grew by 31.7%, significantly outpacing the revenue growth due to accelerated issuance of local government special bonds, totaling 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[11]