| | 1、央行公告称，11月17日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2830亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2830 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量2830亿元。Wind数据显示，当日1199亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1631亿元。 | | | 2、外交部发言人毛宁在例行记者会上强调，针对日本首相高市早苗涉台错误言论，中方已经并将继续向日方提出严正 交涉和强烈抗议，严肃要求日方立即反思纠错，收回错误言论，停止在涉华问题上制造事端。另外，在二十国集团领 | | | 导人峰会期间，李强总理没有会见日方领导人的安排。 | | | 3、国务院副总理何立峰与德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔共同主持第四次中德高级别财金对话。联合声明显示，双方 欢迎符合条件的沪深交易所上市公司在法兰克福证交所发行全球存托凭证（GDR），欢迎符合条件的法兰克福证交所上 | | | 市公司在沪深交易所发行中国存托凭证（CDR）。双方同意推动中德金融基础设施互联互通。 | | | 4、财政部公布数据显示，今年1-10月，全国财政收入18.65万亿元，同比增长0.8%。10月单月，全国财政收入2.26万 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Economic and Market Outlook for 2026-2027 Industry or Company Involved - The conference call focuses on the global economic and market outlook for 2026 and 2027, with a particular emphasis on the U.S. and Chinese economies. Core Points and Arguments Economic Outlook for the U.S. 1. The U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026 and 2027, driven by investments in AI and productivity improvements [6][7][8] 2. The first half of 2026 may experience slight economic weakness due to policy lags, but recovery is anticipated in the second half [7][12] 3. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates to a neutral level of 3% to 3.25%, adopting a more dovish stance [8][9] 4. The U.S. government aims to manage its growing debt through economic growth and moderate inflation, similar to post-World War II strategies [9][10][12] 5. The dollar may stabilize despite lower interest rates, with potential slight appreciation of the yuan against the dollar [13] Economic Outlook for China 1. China is in a transitional phase from deflation to low inflation, with 2026 seen as the final year of a three-year battle against deflation [4][14] 2. The projected GDP growth for China in 2026 is 4.8%, with nominal GDP growth around 4.1% [14][15] 3. Fiscal policies are expected to remain conservative initially, with potential for increased spending in the second half of 2026, particularly in real estate [15][16] 4. Monetary policy may see symbolic interest rate cuts of 10 to 20 basis points, depending on economic data [16] 5. The focus will be on social welfare and real estate policies to stimulate consumption and stabilize the economy [17][19] Investment Strategies 1. The call recommends a bullish stance on equities, particularly U.S. stocks, with a target for the S&P 500 to reach 7,800 by the end of 2026 [27][28] 2. The U.S. stock market is expected to see broad-based gains rather than being driven solely by a few high-performing companies [27] 3. Earnings growth for the S&P 500 is projected at 15% annually from 2025 to 2027, the strongest among global markets [28] 4. Japan's market is also viewed positively due to favorable fiscal policies and a stable inflation narrative [32] 5. Emerging markets are seen as less favorable for investment, with a focus on specific countries like India and Singapore [34] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The call emphasizes the need for structural reforms in China, including reducing local government competition and improving the business environment [18] 2. The potential for fiscal measures to support the real estate market, including direct purchases of unsold properties, is discussed but faces execution challenges [20][22] 3. The impact of consumer sentiment and wealth distribution on spending is highlighted, noting that stock market gains have not significantly improved overall consumer confidence due to high real estate investment [47][48] 4. The importance of monitoring the ongoing U.S.-China trade relationship and its implications for economic stability is stressed [39][52] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated economic landscape for the U.S. and China in the coming years.

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In October, public fiscal revenue was CNY 22,614.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with tax revenue at CNY 20,700.0 billion, up 8.6%[6] - Non-tax revenue fell to CNY 1,914.0 billion, down 33.0% year-on-year, a significant decline of 21.5 percentage points compared to the previous month[6] - Public fiscal expenditure in October was CNY 17,761.0 billion, down 9.8% year-on-year, marking a negative growth shift from September[16] Tax Contributions - Domestic value-added tax increased by 7.2% in October, contributing 3.0 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[8] - Corporate income tax rose by 7.3%, contributing 0.7 percentage points to the tax revenue growth, while personal income tax surged by 27.3%, contributing 2.9 percentage points[8] - Consumption tax revenue grew by 4.4%, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[8] Government Fund Performance - From January to October, government fund budget revenue totaled CNY 34,473.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%[19] - Land use rights transfer revenue was CNY 24,982.0 billion, down 7.4% year-on-year, indicating a worsening decline trend[19] - Government fund expenditure for the same period reached CNY 80,892.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%[22] Economic Outlook - The fiscal expenditure and financing pace in 2025 supported a GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters[25] - Incremental policies are anticipated at the end of this year and early next year to bolster economic growth, with a focus on the upcoming central economic work conference and the "Two Sessions" for fiscal and policy financial tools[25] - Risks include increasing overseas recession risks and heightened geopolitical uncertainties[26]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 17, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a total amount of 283 billion [1] - On the same day, 119.9 billion in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 163.1 billion [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank continued net injections in the open market, with overnight repurchase rates rising approximately 14 basis points to around 1.51% due to tax periods and year-end bank liabilities [3][5] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.00% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was stable at 1.64% [8] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed increases: 30-year contracts rose by 0.33%, 10-year by 0.09%, 5-year by 0.05%, and 2-year by 0.03% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Revenue - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.649 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with tax revenue at 15.3364 trillion, up 1.7%, and non-tax revenue at 3.3126 trillion, down 3.1% [14] - The central government’s budget revenue was 8.1856 trillion, down 0.8%, while local government revenue was 10.4634 trillion, up 2.1% [14] Group 6: Foreign Holdings in Bond Market - As of October 2025, foreign institutions held 3.73 trillion in the interbank bond market, accounting for 2.2% of the total custody amount [15] - Foreign institutions held 2.04 trillion in government bonds, 0.78 trillion in interbank certificates of deposit, and 0.75 trillion in policy financial bonds [15] Group 7: Global Macro - Japan's Q3 GDP showed a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.4%, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [17] - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a loose monetary policy stance to achieve a stable inflation target of 2% [17]

Core Viewpoint - Local government fiscal revenues have shown slight growth in the first three quarters of the year, with expenditures also increasing, indicating a focus on stabilizing the economy and ensuring public welfare [3][4][6]. Fiscal Revenue Summary - Among 28 provinces, 24 reported growth in general public budget revenues, with Tibet and Jilin achieving double-digit growth rates of 14.2% and 11.4% respectively [8]. - Nationally, local general public budget revenue reached 93,039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while expenditures totaled 177,056 billion yuan, up 2.4% [6]. - Provinces like Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai experienced declines in revenue, attributed to falling prices of major commodities like coal [9]. Fiscal Expenditure Summary - Most provinces reported slight increases in fiscal expenditures, with Tibet showing the highest growth rate at 13% [14]. - Expenditures in key areas such as health, social security, and education have been prioritized, with Hunan province allocating over 70% of its budget to these sectors [14]. - The government is focusing on balancing fiscal resources and ensuring that expenditures support essential public services and economic stability [14][15]. Revenue Quality and Trends - The overall quality of fiscal revenue has improved slightly, with tax revenue growth outpacing non-tax revenue [12]. - In some regions, significant disparities in revenue growth rates were observed, with certain counties experiencing high growth due to specific industry developments [11]. - The low growth in fiscal revenues is influenced by broader economic conditions, including a sluggish real estate market and challenges faced by various industries [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage where supply slightly converges and demand remains generally stable, and the current situation of oversupply may improve with production control [2] - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability, with a slight accumulation of social inventory, and the options market sentiment is slightly bullish [2] - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage where supply converges and demand slightly decreases [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum was 21,725 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 2,817 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quote was 2,858.50 US dollars/ton, down 18.50 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory was 552,375 tons, down 825 tons [2] - The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 140 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread of alumina was - 82 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,630 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 21,890 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 560 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 95 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum premium was - 28.05 US dollars/ton, down 1.62 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production was 799.90 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons [2] - The import volume of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 155,414.40 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons [2] - The national alumina开工率 was 85.28%, down 0.70 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of alumina was 86.96%, down 1.31 percentage points [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons [2] - The production of aluminum products was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.30 million tons, down 1.70 million tons [2] - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 56.60 million tons, down 0.30 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum total capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2] - The national real estate prosperity index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2] - The automobile production was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum in 20 days was 10.76%, up 0.31 percentage points; the historical volatility in 40 days was 9.81%, down 0.13 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum's main contract was 11.67%, down 0.0054; the option call - put ratio was 1.24, down 0.0132 [2] 3.7 Industry News - There are different views within the Fed on interest rate cuts; the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for October, showing a slowdown in growth rates of multiple indicators [2] - The country aims to develop new productive forces, focusing on emerging and future industries; the State Council promotes "two - heavy" construction and consumer policies [2] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for sufficient and precise fiscal policies to promote economic balance [2]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1210.00 | +18.00↑ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1710.00 | +40.50↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 912812.00 | -22920.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 47574.00 | -2075.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -100998.00 | +1324.00↑ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -3608.00 | +450.00↑ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 67.00 | +9.00↑ J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 137.50 | -5.00↓ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 100.00 | 0.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Insufficient demand is a significant challenge faced by countries with advanced production capacity and income levels, leading to various economic issues such as declining corporate revenues, reduced employment opportunities, and worsening social wealth [5][10][12]. Summary by Sections Demand Insufficiency - Demand insufficiency is described as a "disease of wealth," primarily affecting countries with high production capacity and income levels, while lower-income countries typically face supply shortages and inflation [5][28]. - The dangers of demand insufficiency are severe, potentially leading to acute economic collapse and long-term resource wastage if not addressed [5][12][19]. Understanding Demand Insufficiency - Understanding demand insufficiency requires analyzing four levels: economic development stage, triggers, market failures, and inadequate policy responses [26][28]. - Market failure is emphasized as a critical aspect in understanding demand insufficiency, influencing the choice of appropriate policy responses [5][10][19]. Policy Responses - Effective policy responses to demand insufficiency must meet three criteria: they must be external to market logic, target fast variables, and facilitate broad credit growth [40][41]. - Counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies are recognized as standard and effective remedies for demand insufficiency, although they often face public skepticism [6][41]. Historical Context - Historical examples of prolonged demand insufficiency include the Great Depression in the 1920s and Japan's "lost two decades" from 1992 to 2012, both characterized by persistent economic challenges due to insufficient demand [10][11][12]. Economic Impact - The impact of demand insufficiency includes significant declines in corporate income and profitability, leading to increased bankruptcies and reduced investment [13][14]. - The overall wealth of society diminishes, with falling corporate profits resulting in lower asset valuations and real estate prices [14][15]. Broader Consequences - Demand insufficiency also leads to a deteriorating business environment, increased external trade disputes, worsening income distribution, and heightened financial risks [18][19]. - The phenomenon can create a self-reinforcing negative cycle, where reduced spending leads to lower incomes and further decreases in demand [32][33]. Conclusion - Addressing demand insufficiency requires a comprehensive understanding of its complexities and the implementation of targeted, effective policies that can break the cycle of decline [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The book "Trade Policy Disaster" by Douglas A. Irwin examines the historical recurrence of trade protectionism, particularly during the Great Depression of the 1930s, and its implications for modern economic policy [2][8]. Group 1: Trade Protectionism - Trade protectionism is characterized by self-sufficiency and beggar-thy-neighbor policies, often implemented through high tariffs, import quotas, and foreign exchange controls, leading to the collapse of the international trade system [3][4]. - Once trade barriers are established, they can trigger retaliatory measures from other countries, resulting in a downward spiral that severely hampers global trade and economic recovery [3][8]. Group 2: Causes of Trade Protectionism - The author critiques the notion that trade protectionism arises solely from "special interest politics," arguing that during the Great Depression, the rapid decline in trade outpaced production, reducing external competitive pressures on domestic producers [4][5]. - The limited policy toolbox during the 1930s, particularly the adherence to the gold standard, restricted countries' ability to implement monetary policy, forcing governments to resort to trade restrictions [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Evidence - The book provides empirical evidence from 1930s Europe, where countries faced international balance of payments issues and divided into two models: those maintaining the gold standard and implementing trade protectionism, and those allowing currency devaluation for trade openness [7][8]. - Countries that abandoned the gold standard and adopted flexible monetary policies experienced less trade restriction and better economic recovery during the Great Depression, while those that maintained fixed exchange rates saw a dramatic 25% decline in global trade from 1929 to 1932 [8][9]. Group 4: Contemporary Relevance - The study highlights a persistent policy dilemma: during economic crises, countries must carefully balance their exchange rate and trade policies, recognizing the inherent conflicts between the two [9]. - The historical context of the gold standard's "trilemma" continues to resonate today, as developed economies face similar challenges in managing trade barriers and currency devaluation amidst economic pressures [9].

宏观：香港路演见闻 20251116 摘要 市场预期 2026 年货币政策延续宽松，尽管美联储近期释放鹰派信号， 但多数投资者仍预计 12 月降息，主要基于政府停摆导致的经济下行压 力。 市场对特朗普贸易政策存在分歧，关税政策不确定性大，中期选举前可 能采取增量宽财政措施以拉拢选票。 2025 年和 2026 年净财政宽松力度基本为零，需增量财政政策才能实 现真正宽松，如每个贫困家庭发放 2000 美元，但实施存在不确定性。 2026 年美国经济总体乐观，但依赖财政和货币双宽松，若缺乏进一步 宽松措施，居民部门信贷压力将增加，主要体现在车贷、银行卡和信贷 等方面。 市场继续看好黄金和 AI，尽管存在泡沫化担忧，但仍有上涨潜力。同时， 由于对双宽松状态的预期，对铜等大宗商品也持乐观态度。 近期市场对美联储降息预期出现变化，12 月降息预期从 70%降至 43%，但 2026 年 12 月的隐含降息预期仍维持在 3.3 附近，宽松货币 政策趋势未变。 AI 技术的应用带来 K 型影响，主要由富人消费驱动，高收入群体受益， 低收入群体面临就业压力，服务业外包经济体贸易账可能受冲击。 Q&A 近期权益市场风格切换的原 ...