Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%[9] - There is increasing internal disagreement within the Fed regarding inflation and employment risks, with 3 out of 12 officials voting against the rate cut[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January 2026 is 24.4% according to CME FedWatch[11] Economic Data - The U.S. JOLTS job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, the highest in five months, while initial jobless claims increased by 44,000, marking the largest rise since 2020[17] - The U.S. fiscal deficit decreased, with November fiscal revenue up 23.75% year-on-year, while spending decreased by 23.82%[17] - Japan's Q3 GDP was revised down from -1.8% to -2.3%, indicating a more significant economic contraction than previously expected[25] Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5 basis points to 4.19%[27] - European bond markets saw overall declines, with the 10-year UK bond yield increasing by 3.9 basis points to 4.52% and the German yield rising by 7 basis points to 2.85%[27] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 0.68% year-to-date, reflecting a 27.43% annual growth[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, short - end bonds may be more stable due to relatively stable funds and loose expectations, while long - end and ultra - long - end bonds may have larger fluctuations. The pattern of bonds having a ceiling and a floor is hard to break, and the yield of 10 - year bonds may stay within 1.75% - 1.85%. For allocation funds, focus on medium - short - term bonds and high - grade credit bonds; for trading funds, watch for trading opportunities of ultra - long - term bonds after adjustments [8]. - In the medium - to long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. Deflation is likely to continue, and the fundamentals are favorable for bond futures. With the synergy of monetary and fiscal policies, bond yields are unlikely to rise significantly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Last week, Treasury bond futures first rose and then fell. The rebound in the first half of the week was due to technical gap - filling and abundant liquidity, while the adjustment in the second half was related to the Central Economic Work Conference. The conference showed more active responses to the situation, emphasizing promoting economic growth and price recovery in monetary policy, and expanding domestic demand [4]. - The closing prices, weekly price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various Treasury bond futures contracts are presented in a table, showing different performance among different contracts [5]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data on open - market operations (both quantity and price), medium - term lending facilities (quantity and price), reverse repurchase rates, MLF rates, and various fund prices, including deposit - type pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, and other interest rates [10][14][16]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report shows data on Treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures [44][52][59][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the likelihood of a bullish or bearish outlook for various varieties, but it emphasizes that these are only possibilities, not definite judgments [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The social finance growth rate remains at a high level. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale in the first 11 months of 2025 exceeded the full - year figure of the previous year. The growth rates of inclusive small and micro loans, medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and technology loans continue to be higher than the overall loan growth rate [1]. - For precious metals, short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases provide solid support [2][18]. - The copper market is expected to shift to a supply - demand gap due to disruptions in ore supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2][19]. - The aluminum price has short - term weakening upward momentum, but a long - term optimistic outlook is still recommended, considering macro - level support and the situation of supply and demand [3][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Main News Concerns 3.1.1. International News - The Bank of Japan may maintain its commitment to continue raising interest rates next week, emphasizing that the subsequent pace of rate hikes will depend on the economy's response to each increase. The market has almost fully priced in the rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% at the December 18 - 19 meeting [6]. 3.1.2. Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy next year to support the expansion of domestic demand, optimize supply, and promote high - quality economic development [7]. 3.1.3. Industry News - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., jointly invested by several leading silicon material enterprises, was established, regarded as an important step in the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry. The planned annual silicon material production capacity of relevant enterprises in the future will not exceed 1.5 million tons [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on December 11 and 12, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 Futures, ICE Brent Crude Oil Continuous, etc. [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The long - term slow - bull pattern of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's interest rate cut in December and positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Loose policies are expected to increase, providing support for short - term treasury bond futures prices. The market funds are relatively loose [10][11]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend is hard to change. The IEA has adjusted the forecast of world oil demand, and OPEC+ production has increased [12]. - **Methanol**: It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. The start - up rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants has decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory has declined [13]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weakening, and demand supports the stable start of all - steel tires [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Pay attention to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling and the digestion rhythm of upstream supply and demand. The downstream demand is steadily releasing [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both domestic glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The inventory of glass is decreasing faster, while soda ash still needs time for supply - demand digestion [16][17]. 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion by the Fed support prices [18]. - **Copper**: The price dropped by more than 2% over the weekend. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a gap [19]. - **Zinc**: The price dropped by more than 1% over the weekend. The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals [20]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward momentum is weakening, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The macro - level supports the price, and the supply and demand situation needs further attention [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be cautious about the upward height in the short term. The weekly social inventory is decreasing, but potential supply increments have not been released [22][23]. 3.3.4. Black Products - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. The rigid demand is weakening, but strong policy expectations in December provide upward momentum [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price has the power to rebound in the short term, but the upward space is limited. The medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The price is expected to be weak. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slightly behind, US soybean exports are slow, and domestic long - term supply is sufficient [26]. - **Edible Oils**: Palm oil has significant inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term due to positive news [27]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. International factors and domestic supply and cost factors need to be considered [28][29]. - **Cotton**: The price trend is strong, supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The 02 contract may face adjustment pressure, and the 04 contract is expected to have further downward space due to supply surplus and potential Red Sea route resumption [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The central government continues a relatively positive policy tone, with fiscal policy maintaining the scale of deficits and debt, and monetary policy remaining moderately loose with potential use of reserve - requirement cuts and interest - rate cuts. In the short term, there may be a "sell - the - news" adjustment after the policy implementation, but the market correction since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year, suggesting investors gradually build long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate and Bond Market - DROO1 closed at 1.27, down 0.21bp; DR007 closed at 1.47, up 1.75bp; GC001 closed at 1.58, up 32.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.54, up 3.50bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.59, up 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.39, up 0.02bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.62, up 0.83bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.84, up 0.26bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.19, up 5.00bp [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 668.5 billion yuan in reverse - repurchase operations. With 663.8 billion yuan in reverse - repurchase maturities, the net injection was 4.7 billion yuan. This week, 668.5 billion yuan in reverse - repurchases will mature, along with 40 billion yuan in 182 - day outright reverse - repurchases and 8 billion yuan in treasury - cash fixed - deposits maturing on Monday [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - The closing prices and percentage changes of major stock indices and their corresponding stock - index futures contracts are presented. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4581, up 0.63%; IF for the current month closed at 4574, up 0.8%. The trading volumes and open interests of stock - index futures also showed varying degrees of increase [5] - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.08% to 4581; the SSE 50 fell 0.25% to 2994.6; the CSI 500 rose 1.01% to 7169.8; the CSI 1000 rose 0.39% to 7370.9. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, communication (6.3%), national defense and military industry (2.8%), electronics (2.6%), machinery (1.4%), and power equipment (1.2%) led the gains, while steel (-2.9%), real estate (-2.6%), textile and apparel (-2.6%), basic chemicals (-2.2%), and household appliances (-2%) led the losses. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 214.27 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5] 3.3 Stock - Index Futures Basis - The basis of IF for different contracts: current - month contract 11.08%, next - month contract 6.12%, current - quarter contract 4.15%, next - quarter contract 3.92%; IH: current - month contract 19.12%, next - month contract 5.41%, current - quarter contract 1.88%, next - quarter contract 1.84%; IC: current - month contract - 4.29%, next - month contract 8.45%, current - quarter contract 9.07%, next - quarter contract 10.19%; IM: current - month contract 9.05%, next - month contract 12.72%, current - quarter contract 12.95%, next - quarter contract 13.00% [7]

研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号：F3053225 投资咨询证号：Z0015885 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 国债期货周报：重要会议落地，盘面波动加大 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 第二部分 相关数据追踪 12 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 内容摘要 ◼【综合分析】 逻辑梳理：本周部分月度宏观数据密集公布，整体有喜有忧。其中金融数据方面，新型政策性金融工具带动企业部门融资需求上升是 最大亮点，但基数抬升等因素共同作用下，M1增速则继续放缓。相较于基本面数据而言，市场关注点更多集中在重要会议的内容上 。周四公布的中央经济工作会议通稿内容未超预期。财政政策方面，"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"的表述降低了明 年财政在"量"上大幅加码的概率。而货币政策适度宽松的基调不变，且将"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，明年政策利率调 降仍然可期。不过，周五上 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日收盘价 | TS2603 102.464 | TS2606 102.482 | TF2603 105.820 | TF2606 105.810 | T2603 107.985 | T2606 108.000 | TL2603 112.47 | TL2606 112.66 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.474 | 102.492 | 105.885 | 105.885 | 108.100 | 108.115 | 113.19 | 113.34 | | | 涨跌 | -0.010 | -0.010 | -0.065 | -0.075 | -0.115 | -0.115 | -0.720 | -0.680 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.06% ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market and monetary policy in China, focusing on the implications of recent economic meetings and market dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The monetary policy remains accommodative, emphasizing cost reduction and interest rate cuts, but short-term market reactions are muted due to insufficient allocation power, leading to a weak cross-year market outlook. A potential turning point is expected after January 2026 with a high probability of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to alleviate bank liabilities [1][2][3] 2. **Fiscal Policy Stance** - Fiscal policy is expected to remain stable with limited incremental changes, focusing on effectively utilizing existing policies. The broad deficit is projected to remain consistent with 2025 levels, lacking strong fiscal stimulus signals, which contributes to muted market reactions [1][4] 3. **Long-term Bond Market Dynamics** - Increased issuance and extended maturities of special government bonds and local government bonds will lead to higher supply in the long-term and ultra-long-term bond markets, exerting upward pressure on yields despite stable fiscal policies [1][5] 4. **Economic Growth Targets** - The economic growth target for 2026 is not expected to decline due to stable fiscal policies. There is a strong domestic demand for economic growth, and if mid-year performance is below expectations, policy adjustments will likely be made rather than lowering growth targets [1][6] 5. **Impact of Interest Rate Caps** - The setting of domestic interest rate caps serves as a stabilizing measure for the government bond market, allowing for controlled upward movement in rates during the current expansion phase, contrasting with rapid fiscal expansions seen in other economies [1][7] 6. **Challenges in Domestic vs. Overseas Markets** - Domestic markets face fewer pressures compared to overseas markets during fiscal expansions, with only 1.5 layers of pressure compared to four for overseas markets. This includes managing public bond yields and some price increases [1][8] 7. **Central Economic Work Conference Insights** - The conference indicated that future monetary policy will focus on supporting livelihoods and real economic development rather than merely inflating asset prices. The central bank may buy government bonds to maintain national leverage costs if rapid interest rate increases occur [1][9][10] 8. **Banking Sector Dynamics** - The banking sector's allocation power is expected to be weak at the end of the year and early 2026, influenced by discussions on next year's KPIs and the performance of insurance institutions in the equity bull market [1][11] 9. **Short-term Trading Strategies** - The TL contract is expected to fluctuate between 110 and 113.5, with potential strategies focusing on tax rate differences between old and new bonds, contingent on a stable market environment [1][12] 10. **Credit Bond Market Impact** - Recent policies, particularly regarding local government debt resolution by 2028, will significantly influence the credit bond market, with a focus on addressing hidden and financial debts through local fiscal measures and financial institution support [1][13][14] 11. **Investment Value of Credit Strategies** - Credit strategies are expected to retain investment value in 2026, with a focus on short-duration credit bonds becoming mainstream due to weaker performance in trading assets and overall bond market outlook [1][15] 12. **Trends in Convertible Bond Market** - The convertible bond market is currently experiencing volatility but may benefit from catalysts in the equity market. A balanced approach in selecting convertible bonds, particularly in the technology growth sector, is recommended [1][16][17] 13. **Investment Layout Recommendations** - A balanced investment strategy is advised, focusing on technology growth sectors while also maintaining a base in high-dividend stocks and exploring new bonds with low credit risk to mitigate uncertainties [1][18]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **debt market** and **financial conditions** in China, focusing on the impact of economic policies and market behaviors on credit demand and supply. Core Insights and Arguments - **Deleveraging by Residents**: There is a significant trend of residents actively deleveraging, with a sharp decline in personal medium to long-term loans in October. The growth of housing loans has stagnated, and in some cases, turned negative, influenced by falling property prices in Beijing and the inversion of mortgage rates against bank deposit rates, making early repayment a rational choice [1][2]. - **Weak Corporate Credit Demand**: Corporate credit demand remains weak, with an increase in short-term loans but a decrease in medium to long-term loans year-on-year. The rise in bill discounting indicates insufficient financing demand, exacerbated by overcapacity in many industries and central bank interest rate controls [4]. - **Social Financing Trends**: The social financing scale remains stable but is on a downward trend, primarily driven by off-balance-sheet financing and corporate bonds. A decline in social financing growth is expected in December, with projections for 2026 indicating a decrease in social financing increment [5]. - **M1 Growth Rate Decline**: The M1 growth rate has decreased, reflecting low economic activity. The low base effect in the fourth quarter is expected to diminish, leading to further declines in M1 growth, indicating a potential continuation of weak credit demand [5]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure Loan Contributions**: Contributions from real estate and infrastructure-related loans have significantly decreased, with real estate loans nearing zero. The era of large-scale infrastructure projects may be ending, limiting credit demand from local government financing vehicles [7]. - **Impact of Central Economic Work Conference**: The recent Central Economic Work Conference was expected to positively influence the market, but significant profit-taking by institutions led to market volatility. The bond market's performance has decoupled from economic fundamentals, becoming more influenced by institutional behaviors [8]. - **Brokerage Firms' Influence on Debt Market**: Brokerage firms have significantly impacted the debt market, with net selling of long-term bonds indicating a systematic reduction in duration and holding size. This behavior reflects a lack of clear market trends and reliance on short-term trading strategies [9]. - **Future Credit and Economic Outlook**: Credit demand is likely to remain weak, with monthly new loans potentially showing year-on-year declines becoming the norm. The contribution of real estate to total loans has dropped significantly, indicating a shift in the credit landscape [6][7]. - **Government Bond Issuance and Social Financing Structure Changes**: In 2026, government net issuance is projected to reach a historic scale, with government bonds expected to surpass loans in social financing increment, marking a significant shift in financing dynamics [14]. - **Market Sentiment on Stock and Real Estate**: The Central Economic Work Conference did not emphasize stabilizing the stock or real estate markets, suggesting a more cautious outlook on rapid market increases, which could pose financial risks [15]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Long-term Economic Growth and Population Policy**: The conference's statements on population growth were not optimistic, indicating limited policy strength to significantly boost birth rates, which could have long-term implications for economic growth expectations [19]. - **Interest Rate Predictions**: A forecast for a 20 basis point reduction in policy rates in 2026 suggests a continued accommodative monetary policy environment, with expectations for better-than-expected performance in the debt market, particularly for 30-year bonds [20]. - **Leverage Strategies**: Current low costs of leveraging present a favorable strategy, with recommendations to focus on short-duration, high-coupon bonds to maximize returns [21]. - **Insurance Industry Outlook**: The insurance sector is expected to see better-than-expected premium growth, which could enhance overall market confidence [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, it's difficult to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing. Policy expectations, asset price - to - value ratios, and institutional behavior may still be the dominant factors. However, in the long run, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase in 2026, with price signals being the key [25]. - After the clarification of the Central Economic Work Conference content, the bond market within the year will revolve around the equity market and institutional behavior, and is expected to be mainly volatile. The direction of the volatility is affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect. If the sentiment in the equity market warms up, the yield curve may steepen and rise. It's not advisable to overly expect a front - running market [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Event点评 - **Import and Export Data**: In November 2025, in US dollars, China's exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a trade surplus of $111.676 billion. The year - on - year export growth rebounded, and the influence of non - US regions continued to expand. Looking ahead, trade uncertainty has further eased, but the year - on - year export growth in December may decline slightly due to the higher base [9]. - **Inflation Data**: In November 2025, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. The month - on - month decline in CPI was mainly affected by the seasonal cooling of the travel chain and the decline in energy prices; PPI continued to rise slightly month - on - month, mainly driven by the increased winter demand in industries such as coal and gas. It's expected that the month - on - month CPI growth rate in December will be around 0%, and PPI will continue to rise slightly month - on - month [10][11]. 3.2 Funding Price - Overnight funding rates dropped to 1.28%. During the statistical period, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 137.5 billion yuan. DR001 and DR007 remained at low levels, and certificate of deposit yields were basically flat. Since December, certificate of deposit yields have increased significantly due to the large maturity scale and high roll - over pressure on banks [12]. 3.3 Primary Market - The 2025 national debt issuance plan is about to be completed. During the statistical period, 96 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 454.2 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 68 billion yuan. On December 12, the last two national debts in the 2025 issuance plan will be issued, indicating that the supply of government bonds in 2025 is approaching the end [15]. 3.4 Secondary Market - The yield curve flattened and repaired. During the statistical period, the bond market showed a repair market, with ultra - long bonds rebounding from oversold conditions, mainly driven by news of relaxed ΔEVE restrictions and sentiment. After the release of the content of the two important meetings, bond yields accelerated their decline at the end of the trading day, but the interest rates turned upward the next day. The key to the subsequent impact on the bond market lies in the intensity and scale of policy implementation [16][17]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: Currently, it's hard to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing, but in 2026, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase [25]. - **Policy**: The Central Economic Work Conference continued to set the tone of a "more proactive" fiscal policy, emphasizing the need to "maintain the necessary fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure." The tone of monetary policy remained "moderately loose," with a greater emphasis on its role in stabilizing prices. It's expected that the timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026 may be earlier [25]. - **Funding**: Positive factors include the central bank's open - market operation support, increased fiscal spending, and decreased government bond supply. Risk factors are the high roll - over pressure on bank inter - bank certificates of deposit. It's expected that DR007 will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and inter - bank certificate of deposit yields will remain flat or rise slightly [25]. - **Investment Suggestion**: One can moderately grasp the spreads between China Development Bank bonds and national debts with maturities of 7 years and below, the spreads between Export - Import Bank of China bonds and national debts with a 3 - year maturity, and the term spreads of national debts (5Y - 3Y) [26].

Group 1 - The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local economic development, which is expected to inject new momentum into the economy and help achieve this year's socio-economic development goals [1] - The total scale of government bonds this year has reached 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy [1] - The issuance of 8 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds will support 1,459 "hard investment" projects across various sectors, including new urbanization and social welfare [1] Group 2 - The implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy is expected to continue next year, with a focus on maintaining necessary spending intensity through various fiscal tools, including government bonds [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests establishing a long-term mechanism for government debt management that aligns with high-quality development, emphasizing the need for effective management of government debt [2] - Optimizing the structure of government debt is crucial for enhancing fiscal sustainability, requiring a comprehensive assessment of debt repayment capacity and risk [2] Group 3 - Strengthening the management of bond issuance and usage is essential to improve the effectiveness of government bonds, with a focus on preventing inefficient investments [3] - There is a need to enhance the repayment mechanism for special bonds to ensure timely repayment and mitigate repayment risks [3] - Ongoing efforts to address hidden debts and prevent systemic risks are critical, with a call for improved monitoring and regulation of local government debt [3] Group 4 - A scientific management mechanism for government bonds will be established to better support national strategies and improve public welfare, contributing to stable economic growth [4]