Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by investors in uncertain market conditions, particularly highlighting the historical context of inflation and market downturns, and introduces the concept of a "Permanent Portfolio" as a strategy for risk management and steady returns [2][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Analysis - In 2025, the U.S. stock market experienced significant declines due to uncertain tariff policies, with economic growth forecasts being downgraded and rising unemployment and inflation expectations, raising concerns about stagflation risks [2]. - Historical parallels are drawn to 1981, where high inflation and declining asset values led to a challenging investment environment, with the S&P 500 index falling by 5% and long-term government bonds dropping by 9% [2]. - The article notes that in 2022, aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve led to severe market volatility, with the Nasdaq index plummeting by 33% and bond markets experiencing rare declines [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The "Permanent Portfolio" strategy proposed by Harry Browne involves dividing investments equally among stocks, long-term government bonds, cash, and gold, aiming to balance risk and returns [3][4]. - The core logic of the Permanent Portfolio is to diversify risk, balance assets, and maintain long-term holdings, acknowledging the limitations of market predictions [4]. - Historical data indicates that the Permanent Portfolio strategy has achieved an annualized return of approximately 7% over the past 30 years, with volatility controlled below 9% and maximum drawdowns typically under 15% [5]. Group 3: Practical Implementation - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" is introduced as a practical tool to replicate the Permanent Portfolio, helping investors diversify risk across three dimensions [6]. - The investment allocation includes stocks to capture economic growth, bonds for stability during downturns, gold for inflation hedging, and cash for flexibility [9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of asset diversification beyond just stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, suggesting the use of funds and international markets to enhance portfolio resilience [10]. Group 4: Performance Comparison - The article presents a performance comparison of the Permanent Portfolio against traditional 60/40 portfolios and single market investments, highlighting its lower volatility and drawdown during market downturns [22][24]. - Over the past five years, the Permanent Portfolio achieved an annualized return of 7.8% with a volatility of 7.3%, significantly lower than that of the A-share and U.S. stock markets [25][26]. - The Permanent Portfolio's maximum drawdown was limited to -9.2% during the market crash of 2022, showcasing its strong risk management capabilities [26].

以下文章来源于府库 ，作者府库 府库 . 规划投资理财，温暖幸福生活 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 府库 来源：雪球 在上周，看到兴证全球投顾做的一个调研报告，是与资产配置有关的，为了调研投资者对于多元资产配置的 认知和需求发起了，一共收到了5000多份问卷，针对调研结果，发布了这个报告。 看看这份"免费的午餐"，大家觉得味道如何？ 01 对资产配置的认可 从调研结果来看，大家觉得自己对于资产配置并不是一个非常了解的状态，但接近一半的人对于多元资产配 置的理念非常认可。同时在另外一张数据表中，有73.97%的人对于多元资产配置可以分散和降低风险的意义 是非常认同的。 认同分散和降低风险的价值，并认可多元资产配置，且基于当前的了解下，形成的投资组合是怎样的呢？ 02 多元资产的投资占比 从大家投资的海外金融资产占比中，能看到接近60%的投资者海外金融资产占比小于10%，只有10.48%的投 资者在海外金融资产的占比超过10%，从另外一个数据中，也有不少投资者在组合中没有配置黄金。 这个和我自己过往的感受很类似，我在很多年前就知道资产配 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of various asset classes in 2023, highlighting significant gains in certain sectors while noting declines in others, particularly in the US stock market. Group 1: Asset Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index has increased by 23.24% year-to-date, while gold prices have risen by 17.11% [2][3] - The A-share market has seen declines in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300, with the latter down by 0.50% [2][3] - The US stock market has experienced notable declines, with the S&P 500 down by 5.11% and the Nasdaq 100 down by 8.24% [4] Group 2: Valuation Data - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the CSI 300 is 20.17, with historical maximum and minimum values of 59.01 and 13.03 respectively [6] - The PE ratio for the ChiNext Index stands at 36.58, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages [6] Group 3: Market Strength Indicators - Market strength indicators have shown significant pullbacks, approaching oversold territory, suggesting potential for further declines if negative trends continue [9] Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategy - Effective asset allocation involves diversifying investments across different asset classes to mitigate risk and enhance returns [10] - It is recommended to maintain an emergency fund covering 3 to 6 months of living expenses, while excess funds can be allocated to higher-risk investments like stocks and funds [10][11] - Regular reviews of asset allocation are advised to adjust for significant gains or losses in specific assets [11]

长按即可参与 A股三大指数今日集体下跌，截至收盘，沪指跌0.46%，深成指跌0.97%，创业板指跌1.15%，沪深 两市全天成交额1.22万亿，较上个交易日放量1026亿，个股跌多涨少，全市场超4000只个股下跌。 盘面上热点较为杂乱，黄金板块逆势走强，资金午后回流算力板块，杭钢股份涨停，一起来看今天 热点。 01 百亿上市公司暴雷！ 今天互联网金融概念股汇金科技一字20cm跌停，也一度冲上雪球热股榜第一！ | | | 雪矿拽股 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股票 | | ETF | | | 热搜榜▼ | 飙升榜 | 热评榜 | 自选榜 | 组合热股榜 | | 发现热门股票 | | | | 1小时 24小时 | | 1 汇金科技 | | | -20.00% | 加自选 | | SZ300561 1.11万热度 | | | | | | 2 建设银行 | | | +1.06% | 已添加 | | SH601939 9912热度 | | | | | | | | 雪球热点 #四大行定增,财政部出资约5000亿# | | × | | 3 美的集团 | | | +3. ...

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：逸修1 来源：雪球 资本配置很考验CEO和CFO的能力，我很早以前对这块也没有过多思考，近些年的经历逐步意识 到重要性和理清楚里面的逻辑 该不该做回购分红应该是没有统一答案的，要看公司的经营状况和估值，但怎么去决策应该是有 一些客观标准的 一、资本配置 有四个方向： 1、经营业务 第一优先级，分深耕老业务、拓展新业务，前者是优先中的优先 2、投资（看企业类型和地位） 当核心业务不需再做过多投入就可状况，新业务又没啥机会时，可以考虑投资 但真投外部公司的前提还是自身能对有一些协同或赋能，不然可能不如把钱分给股东，股东自己 去投资 所以适合走这条路的企业是流量或生态型的平台，或处于产业链的链主环节的制造企业 回购分红的性价比和估值、机会成本、股息税有关： 比如一个公司在20倍的时候全年利润拿来回 购，相当于一年减少5%股本，相当于eps增长5.26%；如全年利润拿来分红，股息税为零，相当于 5%收益 但 是 你 拿 到 钱 后 可 去 投 其 它 收 益 更 高 的 机 会 ， 比 如 你 能 找 到 10% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2025 will be a pivotal year for the A-share ETF market, particularly focusing on "free cash flow" ETFs, which are expected to gain significant traction and popularity among investors [3][4]. Group 1: Free Cash Flow ETFs - The launch of the E Fund's free cash flow ETF (code: 159222) on March 24, 2025, marks the beginning of a new investment trend, with management fees set at a competitive 0.15% plus 0.05% for custody [3]. - Historical performance of free cash flow ETFs shows a remarkable annualized return of over 20% from 2022 to 2024, significantly outperforming the broader market, which had returns of less than 8% [7]. - The National Index of Free Cash Flow (code: 980092) has unique compilation rules that exclude financial and real estate sectors, focusing on companies with sustainable operational capabilities [9]. Group 2: Index Compilation Rules - The index requires companies to have positive operating cash flow for the past three years, ensuring financial sustainability and avoiding companies with inflated profits [11]. - A stability assessment is conducted based on the past 12 quarters of ROE, eliminating the most volatile 10% of companies to enhance long-term stability [11]. - The final index is composed of the top 100 companies ranked by free cash flow rate, combining both quantity and quality of cash flow [11]. Group 3: Market Context and Comparisons - The article draws parallels between the A-share market and the U.S. market, noting that free cash flow is a relatively new concept in both, with the first cash flow ETF in the U.S. launched in 2016 [15]. - The free cash flow factor is positioned as a valuable selection criterion, supported by academic research indicating its ability to generate excess returns, especially during market downturns [18]. - The industry distribution of the National Index of Free Cash Flow shows significant overweights in sectors like automotive, non-ferrous metals, and household appliances compared to other indices [20][22]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Outlook - The article suggests that while the National Index of Free Cash Flow may perform well in the long term, it could underperform the overall A-share market in the short term, requiring a mindset geared towards gradual wealth accumulation [27][31]. - The index is viewed as a stabilizing component in a diversified investment portfolio, akin to high-dividend indices, providing lower volatility and superior long-term returns [31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of gold, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $3100 per ounce, reaching a new historical high [3][5] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to trade tensions exacerbated by President Trump's tariff announcements [8][10] - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Bank of America increasing its 18-month target from $3000 to $3500 per ounce, and Goldman Sachs adjusting its 2025 target from $3100 to $3300 per ounce [10] Group 2 - The article notes a collective adjustment in the Asia-Pacific markets, with significant declines in major indices such as the Hang Seng Index and the Nikkei 225, influenced by the trade tensions [11][12] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.67%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.79%, indicating a broader market downturn [13][15] Group 3 - NIO's stock price experienced a drop of over 7%, with a market capitalization of HKD 627 billion, following a successful fundraising of HKD 40.3 billion through a "lightning" placement [16][18] - The funds raised by NIO are intended for advancing core technologies and new product development in the smart electric vehicle sector [19] - Other companies like Xiaomi and BYD have also engaged in similar fundraising activities, indicating a trend of capital raising in the Hong Kong market, which has seen over HKD 110 billion in refinancing this year [23]

Core Concept - The article discusses Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy," which aims to achieve stable returns in various market conditions, likening it to being well-equipped for unpredictable weather during a hike [1][3]. Group 1: All Weather Strategy Principles - The core idea of the All Weather Strategy is to maintain a balanced asset allocation to perform well in different economic scenarios, influenced by the interplay of economic growth, recession, inflation, and deflation [4][5]. - Dalio's strategy does not focus on predicting economic cycles but rather on diversifying asset allocation to mitigate market volatility and ensure consistent performance across different environments [5]. Group 2: Classic Asset Allocation - The classic All Weather portfolio consists of 30% stocks, which are seen as a long-term growth engine but are subject to significant short-term volatility [8]. - In different economic scenarios, the performance of various assets is as follows: - Economic growth + rising inflation: Stocks and commodities perform best - Economic growth + falling inflation: Both stocks and bonds perform well - Economic recession + rising inflation (stagflation): Gold and commodities excel - Economic recession + falling inflation: Bonds perform exceptionally well, with gold also benefiting [9][10]. Group 3: Simplified Strategy for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors may find it challenging to replicate Dalio's strategy due to high asset thresholds, complex configurations, and global diversification difficulties [11]. - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" is proposed as a simplified version, focusing on asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification to optimize returns and reduce risks [11][15]. - The recommended allocation for the Snowball Three-Part Method includes 40% stocks, 40% bonds, and 20% cash or money market funds, allowing for a balanced approach to investment [13][14].

在基金投资中，最重要的是什么？很多人的答案无非是择基和择时。但现实很残酷——那些精心 挑选的基金、反复测算的买卖点，反而容易让人在市场高点被套牢。 你发现了吗？每次市场热潮退去后，总有人站在山顶亏损，明明看过数据、听过分析，为什么结 局还是不如意？ 其实关键不在基金本身，而在于我们总用线性思维理解波动市场：看到短期涨跌就想精准抄底逃 顶，盯着热门基金就默认能持续上涨。 今天我们就来聊聊，普通投资者如何在市场中赚到钱。 答案或许比想象中的简单——"躺平"，让好的资产配置带你走过牛熊起伏。 2. 分散风险，避免单一资产的系统性风险 资产轮动永不停歇，从过去10年全球主要资产的历年收益中，可以明显看出：不管是股市、债 市、商品、外汇、比特币或者房价，都是起起落落，有阶段性成为黑马的时候，也有垫底的时 候。霍华德·马克斯曾对这种轮动做过很好的总结：像这样好资产变成坏资产，坏资产又变成好资 产的过程，就是周期循环。只不过，什么时间点会发生转变，没人有确切答案。 为何需要资产配置 "择基"和"择时"是大部分人亏损的根源，其对长期收益的贡献远远比不上资产配置。 加里·布林森的研究表明，大约90%的投资收益来源于资产配置，而 ...