FICC日报 | 2025-04-29 股指震荡调整，银行板块再度走强 市场分析 国内政策稳步推进。宏观方面，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况。 央行副行长表示，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕；将发挥好货币政策工具箱总量和结构双重功能，适时推出增 量政策。国家发改委副主任表示，将加力推动既定政策落地见效，包括提振消费专项行动、用好今年国家层面5万 亿元投资资金、加快设立国家创业投资引导基金等，这些政策大部分将在二季度落地。商务部副部长表示，将设 立大型成套设备出口专项信贷等支持工具，让外贸企业更有底气接单。人社部副部长表示，我国就业政策工具箱 充足，将根据形势变化及时推出。海外方面，美国财长贝森特表示，正与18个交易伙伴进行定制化协议，首笔贸 易协议可能最早在本周或下周达成。 策略 总的来看，关税政策仍给市场带来压力，同时市场等待科技股财报，美股三大指数涨跌不一。中国再度否认同美 国进行关税问题磋商，彰显坚定立场。国内政策工具箱储备丰富，各项政策稳步推进，有助于托底经济。A股财报 披露进入尾声，当前仍建议重点关注IH机会。 风险 若国内政策落地不及预期、海外货币政策超预期、地 ...

中原期货研究所 中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（76）期 发布日期：2025-04-29 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 宏观要闻 1、我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措。在支持就业方面，主要包括鼓励 企业积极稳定就业、加大职业技能培训力度、扩大以工代赈等支持、加强就业公共服务等举措； 在稳定外贸发展方面，主要包括"一业一策""一企一策"加大支持力度、帮助出口企业规避 风险、扩大服务产品出海、鼓励外资企业境内再投资等；在促进消费方面，主要包括扩大服务 消费、强化失能老年人照护、推动汽车消费扩容、构建技能导向的薪酬分配制度等；在积极扩 大有效投资方面，主要包括完善消费基础设施、大力提振民间投资积极性、设立新型政策性金 融工具等；在营造稳定发展的良好环境方面，主要包括持续稳定和活跃资本市场、持续巩固房 地产市场稳定态势、加大对实体经济的金融支持等。这些若干举措将成熟一项、出台一项。 2 ...

期货日报网讯（记者 杨美）4月28日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策 措施有关情况。商务部副部长盛秋平在会上表示，面对当前复杂严峻的国际环境，大力提振消费，全方 位扩大国内需求，具有特殊的重要意义。 三是实施服务消费提质惠民行动。近期，商务部会同相关部门陆续出台服务消费提质惠民行动2025年工 作方案、增开银发旅游列车行动计划、促进健康消费专项行动方案、促进家政服务消费扩容升级若干措 施。下一步，将针对服务消费领域的短板弱项，积极回应人民群众期待，会同相关部门制定支持服务消 费的一揽子政策措施。开展"服务消费季"等扩消费活动，打造服务消费热点。 盛秋平介绍，今年以来，商务部坚决贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，大力实施提振消费专项行动， 加力扩围开展消费品以旧换新，推动商品消费提质升级，促进服务消费高质量发展，办好全国精品首发 季等促消费活动，成功举办了第五届消博会，推动消费持续扩大。一季度，社会消费品零售总额同比增 长4.6%，增速比上年全年加快1.1个百分点。特别是3月份增长5.9%，创去年以来月度最快增速。消费贡 献率达到了51.7%，比去年全年提高7.2个百分点。 四是举办"购 ...

4月24日，成都市统计局发布，一季度，全市实现地区生产总值5930.3亿元，按不变价格计算，同比 增长6.0%，这一增速分别高于四川省和全国0.5和0.6个百分点，也比成都去年全年增速高出0.3个百 分点，显示经济持续向好发展的态势。 支柱产业增长提速 从供给端来看，成都工业表现亮眼。一季度，规模以上工业增加值同比增长8.1%，比上年全年加快 3.3个百分点。其中有色金属冶炼和压延加工业、汽车制造业、通用设备制造业、计算机通信和其他 电子设备制造业增加值分别增长83.7%、25.4%、24.7%、22.7%。 汽车和电子信息产业是成都最重要的两大支柱产业，今年一季度这两大产业实现大幅增长，带动工业 增速提升，为经济增长提供了有力支撑。 2月19日，由成都市经信局市新经济委主办的"携手长三角 共享新机遇"2025"成都⇌长三角"电子信息 产业场景发布会在杭州举行。发布会现场，成都分别聚焦智慧装备、AI基础设施、智慧交通、智慧 应急等场景，共发布187条机会信息，涉及金额超2000亿元，将牵引带动形成市场规模超5600亿元。 成都汽车产量曾经跻身全国十强城市，2017年达到133万辆，但在新能源汽车变革大潮中受到 ...

Economic Growth - Chengdu's GDP reached 593.03 billion yuan in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, outperforming both Sichuan province and the national average by 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points respectively [1] - The growth rate also exceeded Chengdu's full-year growth rate from the previous year by 0.3 percentage points, indicating a sustained positive economic trend [1] Industrial Performance - Chengdu's industrial sector showed strong performance, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size growing by 8.1% year-on-year, accelerating by 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Key industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, automotive manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, and computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing saw significant growth rates of 83.7%, 25.4%, 24.7%, and 22.7% respectively [2] - The automotive industry, a major pillar for Chengdu, produced 202,000 vehicles in Q1, marking a 26.8% increase, with new energy vehicle production soaring by 409.1% to 55,000 units [2][4] Automotive Industry Dynamics - The growth in the automotive sector is attributed to product structure adjustments and the successful market reception of several new models, including those from Geely and FAW Toyota [4] - The production capacity of local manufacturers is increasing, with expectations for significant production increases for brands like Lynk & Co, which anticipates doubling its output this year [4] Electronics Sector Recovery - The electronic information industry in Chengdu rebounded significantly, with a 16.8% increase in added value from January to February, leading among advanced manufacturing sectors [5] - The production of smartwatches surged by 90.8%, and the overall growth in the electronics sector returned to double digits after a period of decline due to international political and economic factors [5] Consumer Market Trends - Chengdu's retail sales of consumer goods reached 273.27 billion yuan in Q1, growing by 6.0% year-on-year, which is 2.7 percentage points faster than the previous year [7] - The city is recognized as one of the few in China with retail sales exceeding one trillion yuan, alongside major cities like Shanghai and Beijing [9] - Various government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption have shown positive results, with significant growth in categories such as telecommunications equipment and home appliances [10]

消费是夯实经济高质量发展的基础 消费是最终需求，既是经济增长的起点，也是长期发展的核心动力。提振既是应对外部环境变化、构建新发展格局的必然选择，也是发挥我国大国经济优 势、推动经济长期健康发展、持续满足人民美好生活需求的关键举措。 问题与挑战。近年来，尽管中国经济保持稳中有进的发展态势，但全球经济复苏乏力，外部需求不确定性上升，国内经济结构深度调整，内外部环境的变化 加速了经济增长动力的转换。国际上，全球经济下行压力加大，地缘冲击与博弈加剧，贸易保护主义抬头，逆全球化等趋势冲击全球供需格局。我国作为全 球制造业和出口大国，以外需作为重要驱动的增长模式面临新的挑战。与此同时，国内需求结构正在重塑。在疫情冲击、金融行业调整等多重因素交织影响 下，居民收入预期有所下降，消费信心和支付能力受到抑制，有效需求不足对供给端形成约束，影响经济增长动能。此外，在城镇化深入推进、新兴消费模 式蓬勃发展的背景下，消费需求正加快从生存型、物质型向发展型、服务型升级，内需对经济增长的支撑作用愈发凸显。 文/ 清华大学中国经济社会数据研究中心助理研究员 张航 ，清华大学五道口金 融学院讲席教授 陆毅 消费是经济高质量发展的基础动力，当 ...

文 /高歌、李悦 今年一季度财政发展前置，趋势呈现温和回升态势，直接改善了非政府部门现金流，但CPI、PPI、 GDP平减指数仍处低位，低通胀情况并未改变，国内需求不足局面仍未完全摆脱。 一季度，国内资本市场的表现在类平准基金稳定下得以回稳，但真正的考验在于外部环境的变化对实 体部门的影响。外部冲击下，二季度挑战与隐忧仍存。 4月21日，在CF40 宏观政策季度报告发布会上，多位专家聚焦当前宏观经济形势与扩大消费的政策 选择。面对美"对等关税"冲击以及二季度财政发债退坡压力，短中长期如何有效扩大内需，扩大消 费的政策选择与排序等议题分享最新观点。 根据中国金融四十人研究院的估算，考虑到出口下降及其乘数效应，美国关税政策对中国经济的总体 影响约为2万亿元，占GDP比重约1.5个百分点。 "这种冲击在短期内会比测算结果更大，因为长期来看企业会想各种办法绕过这个问题。总的来说， 关税冲击是二季度经济面临的最大挑战。"4月21日，在CF40宏观政策季度报告发布会上，CF40资 深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌表示。 他进一步提示， 关税的冲击本质上是对需求的冲击 ， 我们要加大扩大内需力度，增加国内 ...

Core Insights - Qingdao Beer has been recognized as one of the first "Chinese Consumer Brands" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, highlighting its commitment to quality and consumer satisfaction [1] - The brand's unique "digital end-to-end quality management model" has allowed it to create products that exceed consumer expectations, reinforcing its strong market presence [1][6] Product Strategy - Qingdao Beer has developed a diverse product matrix consisting of 9 major series and over 70 products, catering to various consumer preferences and age groups [3] - The company has introduced innovative products such as the A6 and A3 from the upgraded Aogute series, as well as unique offerings like Nikashi White Beer and non-alcoholic White Beer, enhancing its product differentiation [5] Quality Management - The company emphasizes a rigorous quality control process, involving over 1,800 quality inspection projects and meticulous selection of ingredients, ensuring high standards in every bottle [7] - Qingdao Beer has integrated traditional craftsmanship with modern technology, digitizing quality management practices to preserve the expertise of its artisans [9] Consumer Engagement - Qingdao Beer has successfully positioned itself as a brand that resonates with younger consumers by creating products that align with their emotional and experiential values [10] - The brand has engaged in various marketing initiatives, including collaborations with sports events and the creation of themed products, to enhance its connection with consumers [12] Market Positioning - Qingdao Beer is seen as a leader in the Chinese beer industry, continuously innovating and adapting to market changes while maintaining a focus on quality [5][6] - The brand's ability to blend tradition with modern consumer trends has solidified its reputation as both a classic and trendy choice in the beverage market [10]

港股方面，雨润食品盘中涨幅一度超过9%，周黑鸭盘中涨幅一度超过8%，中国波顿、华润饮料、卫龙 美味、怡园酒业等多股涨幅居前。 消息面上，多地出台提振消费专项行动实施方案。近日，《河北省提振消费专项行动实施方案》正式印 发，围绕"2025年全省社会消费品零售总额增长5%左右"的核心目标，提出5大行动24条举措。 海南省人民政府办公厅近日印发《海南省提振和扩大消费三年行动方案》。方案包括消费回流能级提升 行动、旅游消费提质扩容行动等多项行动，以及完善支持政策。其中提到，加大财政支持力度。2025— 2027年，统筹各级财政资金100亿元以上，支持海南省提振和扩大消费。 食品饮料板块逆市走强。 今天上午A股市场整体低位震荡，主要指数多数时间下跌。行业板块和赛道方面，食品饮料板块大涨， 多股盘中涨停。 港股市场上午整体窄幅震荡，其中的食品饮料板块也大幅上涨，港股雨润食品盘中涨幅一度超过9%， 周黑鸭盘中涨幅一度超过8%，中国波顿、华润饮料、卫龙美味、怡园酒业等多股涨幅居前。 A股、港股食品饮料板块走强 今天上午A股、港股市场整体低位震荡，主要指数多数时间下跌。 行业板块和赛道方面，食品饮料板块大涨，一致魔芋盘中涨超2 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need for targeted redistribution policies to boost consumption and promote economic growth, especially in the context of increasing external uncertainties [1][2] - It highlights that improving the redistribution mechanism could be key to stimulating internal consumption and economic growth, as the current income distribution structure is inadequate [1][3] - The article points out that the disposable income of residents in China is significantly lower compared to major economies like Japan, Germany, and the United States, indicating a need for better redistribution adjustments [3][4] Group 2 - The article suggests that policies should balance short-term and long-term goals, combining growth stabilization with reform promotion to enhance the social welfare system and shift economic demand towards consumption, particularly in services [2][16] - It recommends increasing transfer payments to households and optimizing government spending structures to improve efficiency and stimulate market supply and investment [2][17] - The article discusses the importance of tax reforms that align with economic structural adjustments to address constraints on high-quality economic development and guide consumption through tax policies [2][18] Group 3 - The article notes that the growth rate of urban residents' disposable income has generally lagged behind GDP growth, particularly in urban areas, indicating a need for policy intervention [4][11] - It highlights that social security spending in China is relatively low, accounting for only 3.1% of GDP, suggesting significant room for improvement in public spending on social welfare [4][20] - The article emphasizes the potential of government investment in social services to stimulate market demand and improve living standards, particularly in areas like elderly care and childcare [17][19] Group 4 - The article discusses the potential for issuing additional government bonds to finance consumption-oriented policies, indicating that there is still room for fiscal expansion [20][22] - It suggests that the government should balance funding between consumption and investment to ensure sustainable economic growth, especially in light of external uncertainties [23] - The article concludes that enhancing domestic consumption is crucial for stabilizing foreign investment and fostering high-quality development in the consumer market [23]