Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in the index by over 10% compared to the CSI 300 index [35]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of resilience in the US service sector, but concerns about "stagflation" are resurfacing due to significant declines in consumer spending and persistent inflation pressures [1]. - In Europe, while service inflation has eased, overall CPI growth has exceeded expectations, leading to a recovery in risk appetite within the Eurozone [1]. - Domestic manufacturing and service PMI have shown seasonal recovery post-holiday, but sustainability of this recovery remains a concern [3]. - The government has indicated a proactive stance on economic policies, emphasizing the importance of consumption, technological innovation, and stability in real estate and stock markets [3]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - The US economy is facing challenges with consumer spending showing the largest decline in four years, while inflation remains difficult to control [1]. - European economic indicators are stabilizing, supported by expectations of loose fiscal policies in Germany [1]. Domestic Economic Environment - Domestic PMI for manufacturing and services has rebounded, but future sustainability needs monitoring [3]. - The government has set clear economic growth and inflation targets, with a focus on flexible policies to support consumption and innovation [3]. High-Frequency Data - Real estate transactions are recovering, while prices for various commodities show mixed trends, with steel prices declining and non-ferrous metals generally rising [3].

文 ｜ 明明 余经纬 我们认为特朗普政府正在摆脱"民粹"，与硅谷资本、产业资本和"富豪阶层"联系更紧密，并且其内 部矛盾仍存；加征关税及减税更多是"民粹式口号"。各国与美国关税谈判的空间可能更大，预计美 国财政赤字仍将温和增长。但通过降低能源价格推动通胀走低的实操方式及效果有待观察。美元汇 率的重估可能才是推动美国贸易再平衡的最有效方式，但实施的困难较大，落地可能较晚。考虑到 特朗普政府的影响，2 0 2 5年，黄金价格上涨的确定性仍较高，做多美债的确定性好于做多美股。 ▍ 特朗普任命的财经官员背景复杂，且人事任命过程中，展现出复杂的博弈和内部的矛盾。 特朗普的财经官员提名普遍较晚，且在商务部长、财政部长等重要职位上，来自特朗普不同关系 的竞选伙伴竞争激烈。 ▍ 尽管特朗普提名的重要官员都与其关系密切或有利益往来，但其内部矛盾仍然明显，后续政策 推进仍然可能不顺。 除了商务部长、财政部长任命中候选人之间的激烈竞争，近期特朗普在推进关税政策时反复无常 可能与政府内部矛盾相关。 ▍ 本届特朗普政府"民粹"色彩大幅减淡，建制派的话语权更低，"富豪阶级"优势更加明显。 建制派失去了副总统等关键位置，莱特希泽这样的民粹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong government is implementing a salary freeze for all civil servants and political appointees in the 2025/2026 fiscal year to control government operating expenses amid a projected budget deficit of HKD 87.2 billion [1][5][6]. Economic Outlook - Hong Kong's economy is expected to grow by 2% to 3% in 2025, supported by stable employment, moderate inflation, and increased tourism [3][4]. - The government acknowledges challenges such as international geopolitical tensions affecting trade and investment sentiment, as well as high-interest rates impacting local asset prices [4]. Fiscal Measures - The government plans to reduce recurrent government expenditure by 7% by the 2027/2028 fiscal year, addressing the ongoing budget deficit [6][7]. - The total expenditure on civil servant salaries reached HKD 156.2 billion in the last fiscal year, marking a year-on-year increase of HKD 7.1 billion [7]. Housing Supply - The government aims to supply 190,000 public housing units over the next five years, with a long-term goal of 308,000 units in the next decade [10][9]. - The government will not sell commercial land in the upcoming year due to high vacancy rates and will consider converting some commercial land for residential use [11]. Technological Development - A budget of HKD 1 billion has been allocated to establish the Hong Kong Artificial Intelligence Research Institute, aimed at promoting AI research and application [12][13]. - The Northern Metropolis, including the Hong Kong section of the He Tao Cooperation Zone, is set to begin operations this year, with HKD 3.7 billion reserved for infrastructure development [15][16].

据南方日报消息，2月26日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波在立法会发表2025至2026年度财政预算案（以下 简称"财政预算案"）时公布，预计香港2024/2025年度综合赤字为872亿港元，财政储备在2025年3月31日预计 为6473亿港元。 为控制政府经营开支，2025/2026年度所有行政、立法、司法机关及区议会全体人员将一致冻薪，包括行政长 官李家超。 陈茂波提到，2024/2025年度特区政府的整体收入修订预算约为5596亿港元，较原来预算低11.6%。其中，利得 税与薪俸税收入依然保持平稳，分别为1777亿港元和880亿港元，与原来预算相若，反映香港经济韧性强劲。 然而，资产市场受压，政府从土地和印花税的收入均有所减少。 2024/2025年度政府开支与预算相若，整体开支的修订预算为7548亿港元，较原来预算低221亿港元。其中，经 常开支为5625亿港元，较原来预算低177亿港元。特区政府发行1300亿港元政府债券及偿还221亿港元到期款项 后，预计2024／2025年度综合赤字为872亿港元。财政储备在2025年3月31日预计为6473亿港元。 展望2025/2026年度，陈茂波表示特区政府会 ...

高关税和美国经济、外交利益存在矛盾。 在经济方面，高关税难以弥补减税带来的财政缺口，财政赤 字仍可能大幅扩张。短期内，进口需求难以迅速减少，关税成本大概率会被转嫁给消费者，推高国内价 格水平。中长期来看，即使企业回流，美国制造业并不具备竞争优势，反而可能引发成本推动型通胀上 升，进而对联储政策空间形成制约。在外交方面，高关税可能引发美国与他国、特别是盟国间的利益冲 突。一旦引发国与国之间竞相加征关税，则可能导致全球需求萎缩。 要点 特朗普的竞选策略延续了其第一任期的风格，尤以贸易保护和大规模减税引人关注。这一"增关税、减 税收"的组合，意在财政上取得平衡，更重要的是通过对外筑起贸易壁垒、对内减税放松，来吸引制造 业回流，推动美国再工业化。然而，特朗普的政策主张可能存在多个矛盾。 "再工业化"与市场规律间存在矛盾。 战后，美国逐渐从"工业强国"转向"金融强国"，从"生产者"转型为 "财务投资者"。这一转变主要由市场力量推动，本质上是美国对外投资的收益率显著高于本土投资。当 前，美国生产成本高企，美国制造业回流并不符合资本利益，换句话说，单凭市场力量实现难度较大。 而如果美国逆市场力量推动制造业回流，可能需要投入 ...