·银河期货：贵金属暂时缺乏进一步上行的动能 ·西南期货：贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续 ·光大期货：若美国通胀低于预期或提振降息预期从而拉动金价反弹 ·Bloomberg Intelligence：美股高位回落压力和地缘因素可能构成金价冲击4000美元的驱动 ·Heraeus：关税因素扰动上周金价作为对政策失误的保险金价会有更多上涨空间 【机构分析】 ·银河期货表示，近期美国对瑞士黄金征收关税的事件被证明是一场"乌龙"，关于黄金关税问题的不确 定性几乎消失，令金价回落，纽约和伦敦金价差也收敛至正常水平。另外，和7月非农数据公布之后相 比，由于美国企业二季度财报在上周密集出炉、且总体表现良好，市场风险情绪持续回升，美股走高， 美元和美债收益率反弹，贵金属暂时缺乏进一步上行的动能。叠加美国继续在俄乌间进行斡旋，地缘冲 突缓和的可能性再起，多方面因素令贵金属暂时遇阻回调。但由于未来美国经济在关税冲击下出现通胀 反弹和经济走弱仍是基准情景，因此对贵金属不必悲观，可暂时观望等待入场机会。 ·西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，关税存在巨大不确定性。"逆全球化"和"去美元 化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For treasury bonds, it's expected that there will be no trend - driven market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - Regarding stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and going long on stock index futures is under consideration [8][9]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is recommended [9]. - In the case of steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil), investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [10]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions [12]. - Concerning coking coal and coke, they may continue to show strong performance, and investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [14]. - For ferroalloys, there may be a short - term supply surplus, and long positions can be considered when the spot falls into the loss - making range again [16][18]. - Regarding crude oil, it may run weakly, and the main contract can be put on hold for now [19][20][21]. - For fuel oil, the main contract can be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [23][24]. - In the case of synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [25][26]. - For natural rubber, pay attention to going long opportunities after pullbacks [27][28]. - Regarding PVC, it will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [29][30]. - For urea, it will fluctuate in the short - term and be bullish in the medium - term [32]. - In the case of PX, it may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [33]. - For PTA, it can be traded within an interval, considering the current situation [34][35]. - Regarding ethylene glycol, interval trading is recommended, focusing on port inventory and import changes [36]. - For short - fiber, it may fluctuate following costs, and risk control is needed [37][38]. - In the case of bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [39]. - For soda ash, supply may remain high, and it is supported by double - coking costs in the short - term [40][41]. - Regarding glass, pay attention to spot trade and regional de - stocking; in the long - term, focus on capacity clearance of old production lines [42]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to be weakly stable, and the market will gradually return to fundamental logic [43][44][45]. - In the case of pulp, it is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short - term [46][47]. - For lithium carbonate, it is better for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [48]. - Regarding copper, the price may rebound, and the main contract of SHFE copper can be put on hold for now [50][51]. - For tin, the price is expected to oscillate [52]. - Regarding nickel, the price is expected to oscillate [53]. - In the case of soybean oil and soybean meal, consider long positions in soybean meal after adjustment, and exit long positions in soybean oil at high levels [54][55][56]. - For palm oil, consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [56][57]. - Regarding rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider long positions in rapeseed - related products [58][59][60]. - For cotton, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go short on rebounds [61][62][63]. - Regarding sugar, it is recommended to wait and see [63][65]. - For apples, it is recommended to wait and see [66][67][68]. - Regarding live pigs, consider reverse arbitrage strategies [68][69][70]. - For eggs, consider holding 9 - 10 reverse arbitrage [71][72]. - Regarding corn and starch, consider virtual call options for old - crop contracts, and corn starch follows the corn market [73][74][75]. - For logs, short - term bullish sentiment may be supported [77][78][79]. 3. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 112 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - driven market [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. Domestic economic growth is stable but lacks momentum. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures is considered [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw a decline in gold and silver futures. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and central banks' gold - buying and the expected Fed rate - cut are favorable for gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue [9]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. Policy changes dominate the market, and the medium - term trend will return to supply - demand logic. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and the steel industry's stability policy may be a positive factor [10]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in iron ore futures. Policy changes dominate the market, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium - term [12]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw a significant increase in coking coal and coke futures. Policy - induced production cuts in some mines are the main reason for the price increase, and they may continue to be strong [14]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw an increase in manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures. The short - term demand has a slight recovery, but supply is still high. There may be a supply surplus in the short - term, and long positions can be considered at low levels [16][17][18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw a sharp decline in INE crude oil. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the market focus is on the US - Russia talks. Crude oil may run weakly [19][20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw a sharp decline in fuel oil, hitting a multi - day low. Singapore's fuel oil inventory has increased, and the market is bearish on fuel oil prices [23]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw an increase in synthetic rubber futures. The raw material price has rebounded, and the market is waiting for a rebound after stabilization [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw an increase in natural rubber futures. The supply is affected by rainfall, and there is support for going long after pullbacks [27]. PVC - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in PVC futures. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and it will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [29]. Urea - The previous trading day saw a decline in urea futures. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and it is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [32]. PX - The previous trading day saw an increase in PX futures. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, and it may fluctuate and adjust [33]. PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in PTA futures. The short - term supply is stable, demand may weaken, and it can be traded within an interval [34][35]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw an increase in ethylene glycol futures. The port inventory has increased slightly, and it can be traded within an interval, focusing on inventory and imports [36]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day saw an increase in short - fiber futures. The short - term supply is high, demand has improved, and it may fluctuate following costs [37][38]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in bottle - chip futures. The device maintenance has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [39]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw an increase in soda ash futures. Supply is expected to increase, demand is average, and the price may be supported by double - coking costs in the short - term [40][41]. Glass - The previous trading day saw an increase in glass futures. The production line is stable, inventory de - stocking has slowed down, and attention should be paid to spot trade and de - stocking [42]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw an increase in caustic soda futures. Supply has increased, and the price is expected to be weakly stable. The market will return to fundamental logic [43][44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw an increase in pulp futures. Supply has a marginal decrease, inventory is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw an 8% increase in lithium carbonate futures. The mining suspension in Yichun has raised cost concerns, but the supply - demand surplus remains. It is recommended to operate with a light position [48]. Copper - The previous trading day saw a sharp increase in SHFE copper. The Fed's rate - cut expectation supports the copper price, and the main contract can be put on hold [50][51]. Tin - The previous trading day saw an oscillating increase in SHFE tin. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [52]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw an increase in SHFE nickel. The supply is in surplus, and the price is expected to oscillate [53]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw a decline in soybean meal and an increase in soybean oil. The soybean crushing volume has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased. Consider long positions in soybean meal after adjustment and exit long positions in soybean oil at high levels [54][55][56]. Palm Oil - The market has mixed factors, and consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [56][57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market is affected by rainfall. In China, inventory changes vary, and consider long positions in rapeseed - related products [58][59][60]. Cotton - The domestic and international cotton markets have different trends. The global supply - demand is loose, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go short on rebounds [61][62][63]. Sugar - The domestic and international sugar markets have different situations. Abroad, production is expected to be high. Domestically, inventory is low but imports will be high before October. It is recommended to wait and see [63][65]. Apples - The apple market has a slight increase in production, and it is recommended to wait and see [66][67][68]. Live Pigs - The pig price has declined slightly. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and consider reverse arbitrage strategies [68][69][70]. Eggs - The egg price has increased. Supply is expected to increase in August, and consider holding 9 - 10 reverse arbitrage [71][72]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day saw an increase in corn and a decline in corn starch. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and consider virtual call options for old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [73][74][75]. Logs - The previous trading day saw an increase in log futures. The arrival volume has decreased, and short - term bullish sentiment may be supported [77][78][79].

有色金属行业周报（2025.08.04-2025.08.10） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：美联储部分官员释放鸽派信号，特朗普提名新理事 8 月 6 日，美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席、2026 年 FOMC 票委卡什卡利媒体 采访时表示，"经济正在放缓"，因此"在短期内开始调整联邦基金利率可 能变得合适"。他重申，他个人仍预计到今年年底会有两次降息。此外旧金 山联储主席戴利也发出了类似鸽派呼声，称美联储可能需要在未来几个月降 低利率。8 月 8 日清晨，特朗普在 Truth Social 社交平台上宣布，提名现任 白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）出任美联储理事。 本周核心关注二：中国收紧锂矿审查，加速供应重构，宁德时代枧下窝矿区 确认(8 月 9 日)24 时停产，短期无复产计划 行业周报 | 有色金属 宁德时代枧下窝矿区确认停产，或引发碳酸锂价格上涨 据期货日报，据市场多方交叉证实，宁德时代旗下机下窝矿区采矿端将于 (8 月 9 日)24 时正式停产。自 8 月 10 日起，该矿区采矿作业全面暂停，且短 期内无复产安排。后续影响仍待观察。 本周核心关注三：美国 7 月服务业 PMI ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market. Be cautious about the stock index futures, but optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets. Consider going long on gold, and be cautious about other commodities with specific trading strategies for each [6][10][12] Group 3: Summaries by Categories Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed up. The current macro data is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The yield is low, and the economy is steadily recovering. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, so stay cautious [5][6][7] Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, the asset valuation is low, and the economy has resilience. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and consider going long on stock index futures [8][10][11] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to precious metals. The central banks' gold - buying and the Fed's possible rate - cut provide upward impetus. The long - term bull market is expected to continue, and consider going long on gold futures [12][13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. Policy changes are currently the dominant factor, and the prices follow the trend of coking coal. In the medium - term, the prices will return to the supply - demand logic. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and the possible steel industry policy is a potential positive factor. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. Policy is the dominant factor, and the price follows coking coal. The high iron - water production supports the price, but the supply has increased, and the inventory is lower than last year. The short - term supply - demand is strong, but may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. After the previous sharp fluctuations, the prices are back to the supply - demand logic. The coal production verification policy has affected the supply and pushed up the prices. The futures may continue to be strong. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [18][19] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures declined. The manganese ore supply has fluctuations, and the inventory is low. The demand for ferroalloys has a slight rebound, but the supply is still high. The cost has limited downward space. Consider going long on the spot when it falls into the loss - making range [20][21][22] Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil declined significantly. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the market focus shifted to the US - Russia talks. The geopolitical risk eased, leading to the decline. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the main crude oil contract [23][24][25] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil declined significantly. The ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil price difference turned to a discount, and the high - sulfur fuel oil discount narrowed. The market expects a large amount of arbitrage fuel oil in Singapore, which is negative for the price. Consider shorting the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [26][27] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose slightly. The raw material price has rebounded, but the production is still slightly in loss. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28][29] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment cooled, and the supply - side disturbance slowed down. The price has limited downward space. Consider going long after the price pull - back [30][31] PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited. The market will continue to oscillate at the bottom [32][33] Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures declined. The overall commodity sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand of urea has weakened recently. It will fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to rise in the medium - term [34][35] PX - The previous trading day, PX futures declined. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in the short - term, and the cost support from crude oil has weakened. The downward space is limited. Consider range - bound trading and pay attention to cost and policies [36] PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The supply change is small, the demand is expected to weaken, and the cost support from crude oil has weakened. The processing fee is under pressure, and the large - scale producers are reducing production. Consider range - bound trading and control risks [37][38] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The domestic coal - based production has high capacity utilization, but the overseas production has more maintenance, and the inventory is decreasing. Consider range - bound trading and focus on inventory and imports [39] Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has improved. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction. The price will fluctuate with the cost. Pay attention to cost and policies [40][41] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The recent device maintenance has increased, and the inventory is stable. The price is mainly supported by the cost. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost. Control risks [42] Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda - ash futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. The spot price has limited upward momentum. The supply is expected to remain high, but there is cost support from coking coal in the short - term [43][44] Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures declined. The production line is stable, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The downstream demand is weak. The price will be stable. Pay attention to the trading and inventory reduction in the spot market [45] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic - soda futures rose slightly. The supply has increased after the previous device maintenance. The demand from non - aluminum industries is weak, and the price will be weakly stable. The market may shift from tight to loose. Pay attention to production and demand [46][47] Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures declined. The supply has a marginal change, and the inventory is high. The downstream demand is weak. The market is in a multi - dimensional contradiction. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [48][49] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium - carbonate futures rose significantly. The mining suspension of Ningde Times has raised the cost and supported the price, but the supply - demand surplus has not been reversed. The trading logic has shifted. It is difficult for one - sided trading. Light - position operation is recommended [50] Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures fluctuated slightly. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the smelting cost has no further downward space. The Chinese stimulus policy is not effective, but the Fed's possible rate - cut will support the price. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [52][53] Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures fluctuated. The ore supply is tight, but the expectation of production resumption in the fourth quarter has increased. The overall supply is still short, and the consumption is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [54] Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures declined slightly. The ore price has weakened, and the port inventory is increasing. The stainless - steel market is under pressure, and the consumption is weak. The refined nickel is in surplus. The price is expected to oscillate [55] Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures declined. The US soybean production is expected to be good, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the import cost has increased. Consider going long on soybean meal after the price adjustment and exiting long positions on soybean oil at high prices [56][57][58] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the demand is expected to be strong in August. Consider going long on palm oil [59][60] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices declined. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports have changed, and the inventory is at different levels. Consider going long on rapeseed - related products [61][63] Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The global cotton supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the domestic terminal demand is weak. The new - season production is expected to increase. Wait and see in the short - term and consider shorting on price rebounds [64][66][67] Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures declined. The Brazilian sugar production is accelerating, and India and Thailand are expected to have a good harvest. The domestic inventory is low, but the import volume will be high before October. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [68][69][70] Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures rose slightly. The expected apple production reduction has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly. Consider shorting on price rebounds [70][71][72] Live Pigs - The previous trading day, live - pig futures rose. The northern pig price may weaken, and the southern pig price may be stable with narrow fluctuations. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. Consider a reverse - spread strategy [73][74][75] Eggs - The previous trading day, egg futures declined. The egg supply is expected to increase in August, and the consumption is less than expected. Consider a 9 - 10 reverse - spread strategy [76][77][78] Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The US corn supply is abundant, and the domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance. The consumption is recovering, and the inventory pressure has reduced. Consider buying out - of - money call options on old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [79][80][81] Logs - The previous trading day, log futures declined. The import cost is stable, and the supply is expected to increase. The downstream demand has increased, and the futures market sentiment is strong. The short - term bullish sentiment is expected to be strong [82][83]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. has implemented a comprehensive industrial blockade against China since 2018, which is part of a historical pattern where leading nations impose restrictions on developing countries [1][2][3] - The U.S. blockade is not solely aimed at China but is a response to any rapidly developing nation that threatens the U.S. industrial dominance, following historical precedents like the U.S. blockade against the Soviet Union [2][3] - The blockade has intensified as China's development has accelerated, indicating that the U.S. perceives a significant threat to its technological and industrial leadership [3][10] Group 2 - The U.S. believes that by restricting advanced technologies, it can hinder China's overall industrial development, but this perspective is flawed as industries do not always require the most advanced technologies to thrive [6][10] - China's industrial strength lies in its comprehensive manufacturing system, which allows it to produce a wide range of products, from basic components to advanced technologies [9][11] - The U.S. blockade primarily targets high-end technologies, but China's extensive manufacturing capabilities ensure that it can still produce and innovate across various sectors [10][11] Group 3 - The U.S. GDP figures may appear strong, but a significant portion is derived from the service sector, which is dependent on a robust manufacturing base [12][14] - The manufacturing sector is considered the foundation of a nation's wealth and strength, and as China continues to develop its manufacturing capabilities, it is expected to challenge the U.S. service sector's dominance [12][14] - China's approach to development emphasizes sharing its technological advancements and infrastructure experiences with other countries, contrasting with the historical exploitative practices of Western nations [19][20] Group 4 - The current geopolitical landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for China, as the U.S. policies of decoupling and protectionism force China to develop a self-sufficient innovation system [20][21] - There is a growing consensus within China that core technologies cannot be acquired through external means, necessitating the establishment of a robust domestic technological and industrial framework [21] - China's strategy moving forward will focus on creating a larger, more stable market for innovation while promoting shared technological advancements with developing nations [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of renewed recession concerns in the US and tariff disruptions on global risk assets, leading to a decline in industrial metals and equities, while safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries have risen [3][4] - The article discusses the "global barbell strategy" as the optimal response for asset allocation in a fragile era, emphasizing the need for a diversified approach that includes Chinese government bonds, US short-term Treasuries, and high-dividend stocks in China, among others [4][11] - It notes that the Chinese risk assets have outperformed those in the US, with the Shanghai Composite Index continuing its upward trend supported by liquidity easing [3][4] Group 2 - The article outlines key economic data and events scheduled from August 10 to August 24, including important indicators such as the US CPI and Eurozone GDP [12][15] - It provides a detailed tracking of global asset dynamics, indicating a widening SOFR-OIS spread and a decline in the US financial conditions index, reflecting a tightening of overall financial conditions in the US [18][20] - The article mentions that the US consumer confidence index has shown fluctuations, which typically correlates with increased volatility in US equities [28][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of China's capital goods exports amid global geopolitical risks and the potential impact of the 232 tariffs and ASEAN export restrictions on future export performance [1][2][3]. Export Performance - In July, China's export growth was slightly better than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% in dollar terms, up from 5.9% in the previous month [9]. - The export growth to ASEAN and Latin America showed significant improvement, recording increases of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, likely due to preemptive shipments ahead of the August tariff implementation [9]. - Exports to the U.S. saw a decline of 21.7%, while exports to the EU and other regions rebounded, with growth rates of 9.2% and 19.3% respectively [9]. Risks and Future Outlook - The article highlights that exports are expected to moderate, primarily due to the impact of the 232 tariffs and regulatory scrutiny on transshipments [2]. - The key risks include the potential for additional tariffs on exempt products and the enforcement of stricter transshipment regulations by Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries [2]. - The article suggests that the export of capital goods may exhibit medium-term resilience, driven by global trends of industrial backup and capacity transfer to emerging markets due to geopolitical tensions [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, and provides investment suggestions based on market trends and fundamental analysis [5][7][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts rising, and the 2 - year contract unchanged [5]. - The central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 122.5 billion yuan on the day [5]. - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating and outlook. China's macro - policies will continue to support the economy [5]. - China's exports and imports in July increased year - on - year. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend and require caution [6]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and long positions in stock index futures are considered [7]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. China's gold reserves increased for the 9th consecutive month in July. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the possible Fed rate cut, the long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue, and long positions in gold futures are considered [9]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. Policy changes currently dominate the market, and prices may return to the industrial supply - demand logic in the medium term. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses rebar prices, while potential steel industry policies may be positive. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [11]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. Policy affects the market, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but may weaken in the medium term. Technically, it is supported, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [13]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose. After previous fluctuations, they are returning to the industrial supply - demand logic. A coal production inspection policy has affected supply, and they may continue to be strong. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [15]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. Manganese ore supply has fluctuations, and ferroalloy production is rising while demand is weak, with high inventory. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels [17]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil declined due to the progress of US - Russia negotiations. OPEC+ increased production, and the market is waiting for the September meeting. The US non - farm data was poor, and geopolitical risks decreased. The main contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [20][21]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil declined, blocked by the 5 - day moving average. Singapore's high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is high, and Asian supply is abundant. The market expects more fuel oil arrivals, and the main contract is recommended to short the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [23]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber rose. Raw material prices recovered, and the industry's capacity utilization increased. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [25]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber rose. Supply disturbances slowed down, and the market corrected. The decline space is limited, and long positions can be considered on dips [27]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC rose. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited, and it will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [30]. Urea - Last trading day, urea fell. In the short term, it will fluctuate with the spot, and in the medium term, it is considered bullish [34]. PX - Last trading day, PX fluctuated. The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, and the cost support from crude oil weakens. It may fluctuate, and interval trading is considered [37]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA fell. Supply changes little, demand may weaken, and the cost support from crude oil weakens. However, due to the pressure on processing fees and increased production cuts by large manufacturers, the downside is supported, and interval trading is considered [38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol fell. The overall supply is high, but overseas maintenance may reduce imports, and inventory is decreasing. Interval trading is considered, focusing on port inventory and imports [40]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber fell. Supply is high, demand has improved, and it may follow cost fluctuations [41]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips fell. Raw material prices fluctuate, device maintenance increases, and inventory is stable. The market is expected to follow cost fluctuations [44]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash fell. Production increased this week, and inventory rose. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to be stable in the short term [45]. Glass - Last trading day, glass fell. The number of production lines is stable, and inventory is increasing. The destocking speed slows down, and the downstream demand is weak [46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda fell. Production increased after previous maintenance, and inventory rose. The demand for aluminum products provides some support, and the market is returning to the fundamental logic [47]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp rose. High port inventory and international shipping suppress the market. The demand for household paper is weak, and the supply - demand balance is weak [49]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply is uncertain due to mining license issues. The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with high production and consumption improving, but high inventory. It is recommended to observe and control risks [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the domestic smelting cost has no room to decline. The Chinese stimulus policy is not satisfactory, but the Fed rate - cut expectation supports the price. The main contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [53]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production may increase in the fourth quarter. The overall supply is still short, and the price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The price of nickel ore is weakening, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The price is expected to fluctuate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The low price stimulates demand, and the soybean crushing volume is high. The inventory of soybean meal and soybean oil is rising. Consider long positions in soybean meal after adjustment and exiting long positions in soybean oil at high levels [58]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell due to concerns about inventory and production increases and weak export demand. Consider long positions in palm oil [60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rebounded. China's imports of rapeseed decreased in June, while imports of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased. Consider long positions in rapeseed products [62]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton fluctuated, and overseas cotton fell. The global and domestic cotton supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. Short positions are recommended after a rebound [64]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar fluctuated weakly, and overseas sugar fell due to crude oil. The sugar production in India and Brazil is expected to increase. China's sugar imports increased in June. It is recommended to observe [67]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The expected apple production in the new season will increase slightly. Short positions are recommended after a rebound [69]. Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the summer. Consider reverse - spread strategies [72]. Eggs - Last trading day, the egg price was stable in the main production areas and fell in the main sales areas. The production cost is high, and the profit is low. The egg supply is expected to increase in August. Consider reverse - spread strategies [75]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is recovering. The new - season corn is expected to be abundant, and the price has pressure. Consider call options for old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows corn [77]. Logs - Last trading day, logs rose. The import of New Zealand logs is expected to increase, and the price is rising. The demand from downstream factories is increasing, and the short - term market sentiment is bullish [80].

【机构分析】 ·光大期货表示，市场关注点聚焦在美国与其他关税方面的谈判，一方面对来自印度的商品确认加征 25%的额外关税，另一方面对瑞典、日本等国的谈判并不顺畅。另外，特朗普将在本周决定美联储新理 事，将借理事空缺挑选美联储下届主席。地缘政治方面，特朗普对普京的最后通牒将在8月8日到期，特 朗普计划最早下周与普京和泽连斯基会面，白宫当天表示，俄罗斯表达了希望与特朗普会面的意愿。黄 金当前处于"降息预期升温"与"地缘不确定性"双支撑窗口，有望维系偏强走势，关注金价能否突破4月 以来的震荡区间。对于白银而言，金银比回归预期渐成市场共识，因此低吸持有仍是比较好的策略。 ·西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，关税存在巨大不确定性。"逆全球化"和"去美元 化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。美国7月 非农数据大幅不及预期，劳动力市场进一步放缓，美联储有望开启降息，为黄金提供新的上涨驱动力。 因此，贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续，考虑做多黄金期货。 ·铜冠金源期货：预计短期金银可能陷入震荡走势 ·StoneX：虽然面临贸易局势和季节性疲软但黄金和白银积极前景仍受支撑 ...

2025 年 8 月 7 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 日 水 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | 4 | | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | | ת > | | 螺纹、热卷: | | 6 | | 铁矿石: | | 6 | | 焦煤 焦炭 : . | | 7 | | 铁合金: | | 7 | | 原油: | | 8 | | 燃料油: | | C | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | .. | | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | 11 | | | 对二甲苯 PX: | .. 11 | | | PTA: 11 | | | | 乙二醇: 12 | | | | 短纤: . | | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂: | .. | ...