Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a significant rebound due to multiple favorable factors, including weak non-farm employment data and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][5] - The U.S. non-farm employment data for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, with prior months' figures revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs [2][5] - Following the employment data release, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September surged to 84.8%, with a projected total of two cuts within the year, each by 50 basis points [2][5] Group 2 - Internal policy disagreements within the Federal Reserve have intensified, as two members voted against maintaining the current interest rate, indicating a split in the committee regarding future monetary policy [3] - The resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Adriana Kugler creates a vacancy that President Trump may fill with a potential future chair, further influencing the Fed's direction [3] - The imposition of new tariffs by the Trump administration has increased global trade uncertainty, which is expected to drive up demand for safe-haven assets like gold [4][5] Group 3 - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza have further heightened short-term demand for safe-haven assets [5] - The market is currently pricing in a significant likelihood of a rate cut in October, with expectations that inflation data will influence the Fed's decisions moving forward [5] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by persistent trade tensions, inflation risks, and the potential for a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy by the Fed [5] Group 4 - The performance of gold-related ETFs has been strong, with the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) rising by 0.35% and attracting 427 million in investments over the past week [1][7] - Gold stocks are expected to perform well, with the SSH Gold Stock Index showing a 38.01% increase, outperforming the 28.51% rise in London gold prices during the same period [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade agreement dispute has resurfaced, increasing the demand for hedging, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with the weakening employment leading to a rebound in the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in steps in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreement disputes increase hedging demand; the risk of US economic stagflation rises, and the weak employment situation leads to a rebound in interest - rate cut expectations. The new round of tariffs by Trump has caused a global stock market crash, and many countries are seeking renegotiation. The weak US employment growth in July and the significant downward revision of non - farm payrolls in the previous two months have increased the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut probability in September has soared from about 40% to about 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 3. The US dollar index and US bond yields have fallen under pressure. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold have increased, and domestic prices like Shanghai gold and gold T + D have also risen. There are changes in positions, inventories, and other aspects. For example, the position of Comex gold has decreased by 0.73% compared with the previous week, and the inventory of Comex gold has decreased by 1.08% [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai gold of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total increased by 7,617, and the net short positions decreased by 133 [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There are slight reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight increase in recent visible inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex silver and London silver have changed, and domestic prices like Shanghai silver and silver T + D have also adjusted. There are also changes in positions, inventories, etc. For example, the position of Comex silver has decreased by 1.93% compared with the previous week, and the visible inventory has increased by 0.46% [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai silver of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total decreased by 2,778, and the net short positions increased by 5,610 [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets have decreased by 0.00%. There are also changes in indicators such as M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and US dollar index [8]. - **Inflation in the US**: Indicators such as CPI, core CPI, and PCE price index have changed. For example, the year - on - year CPI has increased by 0.30% [10]. - **US Economic Growth**: GDP has changed both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate has increased by 0.10%, and other labor - market indicators have also adjusted [10]. - **US Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index has increased by 3.13%, while new home sales have decreased by 19.64% [10]. - **US Consumption**: Retail sales, personal consumption expenditures, and other indicators have changed. For example, the year - on - year retail sales have decreased by 1.84% [10]. - **US Industry**: The industrial production index has increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate has increased by 0.16% [10]. - **US Trade**: Exports and imports have changed both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the trade balance has decreased by 18.69% [10]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The Michigan consumer confidence index has increased by 9.50%, while the small - and - medium - sized enterprise optimism index has decreased by 0.20% [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: The gold reserves of China, the US, and the world have their own changes, and the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has also adjusted. For example, the global proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has increased by 4.11% [12]. - **Hedging Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index has increased by 51.84%, and the VIX index has decreased by 5.54% [12]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index has decreased by 2.70%, and the offshore RMB has increased by 0.65% [12]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in different periods from September 2025 to December 2026 is presented in the table, showing the changing trends of market expectations for interest - rate cuts [13].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, rising 2.23% on August 1, reaching a one-week high of $3363.37 per ounce, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm employment data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to new tariff policies from the Trump administration [1][3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.39% to 98.68 on August 1, marking the largest single-day drop since April, which reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold and further supported its price increase [1][3] - The U.S. labor market showed signs of deterioration, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% [3][4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged from 38% to 90% following the disappointing employment report, with projections indicating two rate cuts by the end of the year [3][4] Political and Economic Context - President Trump imposed high tariffs on products from Canada, Brazil, and India, with rates reaching up to 50%, which led to a global stock market decline and increased market volatility [4][5] - The political fallout from the employment data included Trump's dismissal of a labor department official, raising concerns about the integrity of U.S. economic statistics [4][5] - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler added to the uncertainty, as it opened a potential opportunity for Trump to reshape the Fed's leadership [5][6] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.6%, marking its largest drop in two months, while the yield curve inverted, indicating investor skepticism about traditional economic indicators [5][6] - The combination of weak employment data and political instability has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, providing new buying support in the market [6]

周一（08月04日）金价早盘压力位震荡盘整，市场追多短期布局方案。（8月1日）现货黄金价格飙升 2.23%，盘中触及一周新高3363.37美元/盎司，收盘报3363.16美元/盎司。这一波涨势不仅受到美国非农 就业数据意外疲软的推动，还受到特朗普政府最新关税政策引发的避险需求刺激。全球经济的不确定 性、美元的疲软以及美联储降息预期的升温，共同为黄金的上涨提供了强劲动能。周一（8月4日）亚市 早盘，现货黄金高位震荡，目前交投于3358.66美元/盎司附近。 从技术分析的角度看，黄金的上涨动能正在增强。金价已突破3330和3350美元的阻力位，周线收盘价若 能维持在这一水平上方，将为进一步上涨至3400美元打开空间。当前价格距离3400美元仅差约2%，显 示出多头强劲的进攻态势，鉴于降息预期的激进转变，黄金有望在短期内冲击3400美元/盎司。潜在回 调风险尽管看涨动能强劲，但市场也存在一定的回调风险，若金价跌破3330美元，可能触发进一步下 行，目标指向3300美元以及100日移动平均线。投资者需密切关注未来几周的关键经济数据，尤其是8月 就业报告，因为其结果将直接影响美联储9月会议的决策，从而对金价走势产生重要 ...

上周五（8月1日），现货黄金价格单日飙升2.23%，盘中触及一周新高3363.37美元/盎司，最终收报 3363.16美元/盎司。这一强势表现源于多重因素共振：美国非农就业数据意外疲软、特朗普政府关税政 策引发的避险需求，以及全球经济不确定性加剧。周一（8月4日）亚市早盘，金价维持高位震荡，现交 投于3358.66美元/盎司附近。 非农数据疲软，美联储降息预期骤升 劳动力市场恶化，降息概率飙至90% 美国劳工部数据显示，7月非农就业岗位仅增加7.3万个，远低于市场预期的11万个，且前两个月数据被 大幅下修25.8万个。失业率从4.1%升至4.2%，进一步印证经济动能减弱。芝加哥商品交易所（CME） FedWatch工具显示，市场对美联储9月降息的预期从38%激增至90%，年内降息两次的预期升温。哈里 斯金融集团执行合伙人Jamie Cox甚至预测，美联储可能在9月一次性降息50个基点以应对经济放缓。 美元与美债收益率承压，黄金吸引力增强 疲软数据直接冲击美元。8月1日，美元指数大跌1.39%至98.68，创四月来最大单日跌幅。美元走弱降低 了持有黄金的机会成本，推动金价上行。同时，两年期美债收益率跌24.1个 ...

Group 1 - Gold concept stocks showed strong performance in early trading, with Zhaojin Mining and Shandong Gold rising over 6%, Chifeng Jilong Gold up over 4%, and Shandong Gold International and Zijin Mining increasing over 3% [1] - The ETF tracking the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index rose over 2% due to market influences [1] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index selects 50 large-cap listed companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales from A-shares and Hong Kong stocks to reflect the overall performance of gold industry listed companies [2] Group 2 - Analysis suggests that weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data has boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, while new tariff announcements have stimulated demand for safe-haven assets [2]

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data was weak, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor market. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged from 38% to 90%, with predictions of two cuts by year-end, and some institutions forecasting a 50 basis point cut in September [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply by 1.39% on August 1, closing at 98.68, marking the largest single-day drop since April. This decline reduced the cost of holding gold. U.S. Treasury yields also dropped significantly, with the 2-year yield falling to 3.710% (the lowest in five weeks) and the 10-year yield dropping to 4.223% (the largest single-day drop since early April), creating a favorable low-interest environment for gold [3] - Tariff policies have heightened demand for safe-haven assets. President Trump imposed high tariffs (25%-50%) on countries like Canada, Brazil, and India, leading to a global stock market crash and increased market risk aversion. This situation has driven demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset. The tariffs raised import costs, causing the U.S. manufacturing PMI to drop to 48.0 (indicating contraction for the fifth consecutive month) and factory employment to hit a five-year low, further supporting gold prices amid rising global economic uncertainty [4] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding its policy direction. Chairman Powell previously stated that no decision had been made regarding a September rate cut, but the weak employment data has weakened the hawkish stance. There are internal divisions among officials, with some concerned about the labor market slowdown while others advocate for maintaining interest rates. The upcoming employment data in August (to be released on September 5) will be a critical reference point, and continued weakness may further solidify rate cut expectations [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant rise last Friday, breaking through multiple moving average resistances, indicating strong momentum. The 5-day moving average has turned upward, suggesting short-term upward momentum, while the 10-day moving average remains slightly downward, indicating some divergence in short- to medium-term trends. The 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages are flat, suggesting that short-term moving averages may not provide clear guidance for precise short-term direction. Since mid-May, gold has been in a high-level wide-ranging oscillation pattern, and the overall approach should remain cautious regarding premature judgments of a one-sided trend [7] - On the four-hour chart, gold is in the C-wave of a larger correction that began from 3500. The C-wave is further divided, with the C-1 wave dropping to 3247 and the C-2 wave rising to 3438/3439. Currently, gold is experiencing a decline in the C-3 wave after encountering resistance at 3438/3439. The analysis suggests that the recent low of 3268 may mark the end of the C-3-1 wave decline, with a potential upward movement in the C-3-2 wave expected. The focus for the beginning of this week should be on the continuation of the C-3-2 wave upward movement, while monitoring for potential resistance at previous highs [9] - Resistance levels to watch are 3373/3374 and 3402/3403, which correspond to Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent decline. Support levels to monitor are in the range of 3340-3335, with additional support at 3325 and 3315 if the market experiences significant pullbacks [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by weak economic data, expectations of policy easing, and geopolitical risks, with a focus on the upcoming tariff negotiations and Federal Reserve actions [11]. Direct Trigger Factors - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed only a 73,000 increase, significantly below the expected 104,000 and the previous value of 147,000, indicating a weak labor market. This led to a spike in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut from 45% to 75%, causing the dollar index to drop approximately 100 points to 99.23 and the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 4.395%, enhancing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [1]. Political Pressure and Policy Expectations - Former President Trump publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling for immediate rate cuts and suggesting a change in decision-makers if Powell does not act [2]. Internal Disagreements within the Federal Reserve - Two Federal Reserve governors voted against the majority in support of rate cuts, marking the first such occurrence since 1993, signaling a potential shift towards looser monetary policy [3]. Underlying Support Logic - Geopolitical risks and demand for safe-haven assets are rising, with the deadline for U.S.-EU tariff negotiations approaching and tensions in the Middle East (Iran-Israel conflict) driving funds into gold [4]. Market Sentiment Indicators - The "fear index" VIX rose to 21.21, the highest since June, indicating heightened market tension [5]. Central Bank Gold Purchases and Structural Demand - Global central banks have been increasing gold reserves, with the People's Bank of China purchasing gold for eight consecutive months (total reserves of 2,298 tons), and 95% of central banks planning to continue increasing holdings in the next 12 months. Investment demand surged, with global gold ETF inflows of 170 tons in Q2, particularly driven by Asian funds (70 tons), and Chinese demand for gold bars and coins increasing by 44% year-on-year to 115 tons [6]. Technical Breakthroughs and Capital Dynamics - Gold prices broke through the key resistance level of $3,300, triggering algorithmic trading, with New York gold futures premiums reaching $62 per ounce, leading to accelerated speculative capital inflows [7]. Market Impact and Differentiated Performance - Investment behavior is showing a trend of cashing out, with investors in Hangzhou selling 6 kg of gold for 4.7 million yuan, while retail investors face increased risks from chasing prices (brand gold jewelry buyback prices are 80-100 yuan per gram lower than selling prices) [8]. - Related assets like silver and platinum are experiencing gains, with silver up 36% year-to-date (the highest in 14 years) and platinum up 60%, attracting capital due to their industrial properties and undervaluation [8]. Consumer Demand Trends - Gold jewelry consumption in China fell by 20% year-on-year in Q2, with consumers shifting towards lighter gold jewelry or rental models (e.g., wedding "three golds" rental at 3,000 yuan) [9]. Future Outlook and Institutional Divergence - Bullish camp: Central bank gold purchases, weakened dollar credibility, and geopolitical risks could push gold prices above $4,000 by 2026 (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan) [9]. - Bearish camp: Delayed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve or better-than-expected economic recovery could see prices retreat to $2,500-$2,700 by 2026 (Citigroup) [9]. Long-term Allocation Strategy - Physical gold is recommended, with a preference for bank gold bars/coins (asset proportion should be controlled at 5%-10% of total family assets), and dollar-cost averaging in gold ETFs to spread costs [11].

【黄金期货行情表现】 在高利率环境和全球化重构的大背景下，黄金的定价机制正在由传统的以实际利率为核心向以央行购金 为核心，央行购金的行为是关键，背后是"去中心化"、避险需求的集中体现。货币属性方面，特朗普的 大而美法案顺利通过，美国债务问题有望加重，导致美元的货币信用出现裂痕，在去美元化进程中黄金 的去法币化属性凸显。金融属性方面，在全球高利率环境下，黄金作为零息债对债券的替代效应减弱， 对美债实际利率的敏感度下降。避险属性方面，地缘政治风险边际减弱，特朗普的关税政策加剧全球贸 易紧张，市场避险需求仍在，成为阶段性推升黄金价格的重要因素。商品属性方面，中国实物金需求明 显上升，央行从去年11月重启增持黄金，已连续增持八个月。目前来看，推升本轮金价上涨的逻辑没有 完全逆转，美联储的利率政策和关税政策可能是短期扰动因素，预计今年的利率政策会更加谨慎，关税 政策和地缘政治冲突的演变主导着市场避险情绪变化。根据美国最新数据，非农数据显示劳动力市场韧 性较强，非农就业人口超过市场预期，失业率下降至4.1%。6月PCE数据显示通胀数据放缓，核心PCE 同比上涨2.8%，超过市场预期，PCE同比上涨2.6%，超过市场预期， ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE levels increase volatility, and in Q3, the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing should be noted. [5] - It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions. For those with a short - term view, they can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity after the silver's upward momentum fades. [4][5] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The potential harm of the US - EU trade agreement to the European economy led to a more than 1% drop in the euro against the US dollar, pushing the US dollar index to around 99. The easing of international trade and the cease - fire on the Thai - Cambodian border reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold fell to around $3300 per ounce, while silver with strong industrial attributes was strong due to Sino - US trade negotiation expectations. [4] - Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold is expected to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise. [4] - This week, attention should be paid to Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade talks, central bank meetings, and important economic data. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill reduced the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but Trump's policies and geopolitical risks supported the price. [5] - In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. [5] - It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, waiting for the next upward breakthrough. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7][9][11] 3. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Sino - US senior economic officials held over five - hour talks in Stockholm to extend the trade truce by three months. [17] - A cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia took effect at midnight on Monday, ending a deadly conflict. [17] - Trump set a new deadline for Russia to make progress in ending the Ukraine war. [17] - Trump expects to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements with the US and will send notice letters to about 200 countries. The US is considering changing its Myanmar policy regarding rare - earth resources. The EU and the US will establish a metal alliance as part of the trade agreement. [18]