贵金属日报 | 2026-01-13 地缘事件持续发酵 贵金属延续强势 市场分析 地缘方面，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文称，任何与伊朗进行商业往来的国家，其与美国的所有商业往来都将 面临25%的关税。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐表示，伊朗做好了应对一切可能的准备，希望美国作出"智慧的选择"。如 果美国选择军事手段，伊朗也做好了准备。此外，英国和德国正牵头多个欧洲国家，商讨在格陵兰岛部署军队， 以回应美国总统特朗普对北极地区的"安全关切"。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-12，沪金主力合约开于1004.48元/克，收于1026.28元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.97%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1026.86元/克，收于1030.26元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.39%。 2026-01-12，沪银主力合约开于18800.00元/千克，收于20945.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动11.82%。当日成交 量为1207195手，持仓量为325729手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于20900元/千克，收于21268元/千克，较昨日午后 收盘上涨1.54%。 美债收益 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent trends indicate a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold surpassing $4600 per ounce, driven by liquidity easing and increased demand for safe-haven assets, suggesting a potential continuation of the bull market in the metals sector [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - As of January 12, COMEX gold reached a historic high of over $4600 per ounce, supported by macroeconomic factors such as the deepening Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and rising geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - The ongoing demand for gold from global central banks remains robust, contributing to the upward pressure on prices [3]. Group 2: Supply Constraints in Base Metals - Key base metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel are facing supply challenges, which are expected to support price increases. Recent strikes and production halts in major mining operations have exacerbated supply issues [3][4]. - Specific incidents include a strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and indefinite shutdowns at the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique, indicating significant supply disruptions [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Mining ETFs - The mining ETF (561330) has shown a remarkable performance, with a net inflow of nearly 600 million yuan over ten consecutive days, reflecting strong investor interest [1][4]. - The mining ETF is positioned to outperform due to a higher concentration of leading stocks, with the top ten holdings accounting for 55.82% of the index, compared to 47.93% in the broader base metals index [4][7]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The copper market is expected to benefit from supply-demand imbalances and the favorable conditions of a rate cut cycle, which historically leads to price increases [12]. - The aluminum sector is constrained by production limits and strong demand from new energy sectors, suggesting sustained high prices [12]. - Lithium demand is projected to rise due to energy storage needs, with a potential supply-demand balance expected by 2026 [13]. - The rare earth sector may see profit elasticity and valuation improvements as China eases export restrictions, highlighting its strategic importance in global markets [14].

周一黄金价格迎来爆发式上涨，一举突破4600美元关口创下历史新高，截至发稿时报4606美元，涨幅超2%。 市场对美联储降息的预期出现微妙调整。美国交易时段开启前，投资者对年内降息幅度的预期从55个基点下调至48个基点，但这并未阻碍黄金上涨。即便美 国10年期国债收益率同步上升近1.5个基点至4.179%，黄金依然走出独立强势行情，这足以说明当前市场的核心矛盾是避险需求，而非利率预期的短期波 动。 联邦基金利率概率 近期美国经济数据呈现分化态势，也为市场情绪增添了复杂性。12月非农就业新增5万个，低于预期和前值，但失业率降至4.4%的低位，缓解了市场对劳动 力市场恶化的担忧；密歇根大学1月消费者信心指数超预期回升，五年期通胀预期从3.2%升至3.4%。这种分化背景下，投资者已提前将2026年美联储降息50 个基点的预期计入市场定价。 从技术面来看，黄金的上涨趋势并未改变，相对强弱指数（RSI）虽进入超买区间，但尚未触及80的极端水平，意味着仍有继续上涨的可能。 若能站稳4600美元关口，后续阻力位将看向4630美元和4650美元，突破后有望向4700美元迈进；反之，若日线收盘价回落至4600美元以下，短期可能面 ...

纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价12日上涨90.4美元，收于每盎司4608.8美 元，涨幅为2%。 本周伊始市场避险情绪显著升温。地缘紧张局势升温和美联储独立性遭疑，令避险需求涌入贵金属市 场，推动黄金、白银价格当天大幅上涨，均再创历史新高。 针对伊朗局势，特朗普表示，"我们正在非常认真地研究这个问题。军方也在研究，我们正在考虑一些 非常有力的方案。我们会做出决定。" 当天3月交割的白银期货价格上涨536.5美分，收于每盎司85.155美元，涨幅为6.72%。 不过，13日亚洲交易时段开盘后，受芝商所调整贵金属合约保证金方式和美联储威廉姆斯有关发言影 响，贵金属价格温和回落。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent gold prices have surged, with COMEX gold breaking through $4600 per ounce, reaching a historical high as of January 12. This increase is driven by both "liquidity easing" and "safe-haven demand" [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The current rise in gold prices is primarily supported by the deepening interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold [1] - Increased geopolitical uncertainties across regions such as Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and South America have contributed to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Global central bank demand for gold remains strong, indicating a sustained interest in gold as a reserve asset [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The combination of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, escalating overseas uncertainties, and the trend of de-dollarization globally continues to support gold prices in the medium to long term [1] - Gold stocks exhibit a "Davis Double Play" effect, where mining companies benefit not only from inventory appreciation but also from nonlinear profit margin expansion during bull markets, making them more elastic than gold prices themselves [1] - Gold stock ETFs, such as the one with code 517400, include leading companies in the gold sector, providing a convenient way for investors to gain exposure to high-quality assets in the gold industry [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider gradual investment strategies or dollar-cost averaging to participate in the gold market [1]

Core Dynamics and Data - Historical Breakthrough: On December 23, 2025, COMEX gold futures first broke $4500/oz, reaching a peak of $4555.1; London spot gold also surged to $4525.83/oz, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 70%, marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [2] - Consumer Transmission: Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang saw a daily increase of 36 yuan in gold jewelry prices, with a reported price of 1411 yuan/gram on December 24, totaling a two-day increase of 44 yuan. The cost of 60 grams of wedding "three golds" skyrocketed from under 40,000 yuan at the beginning of the year to over 80,000 yuan, leading some couples to consider rentals or "gold-plated silver" alternatives [2] Driving Forces Behind the Surge - Monetary Easing Expectations: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 75 basis points cumulatively in 2025, with the market betting on further cuts in 2026. The decline in U.S. Treasury yields diminishes the dollar's attractiveness, while lower real interest rates reduce the cost of holding gold [3] - Surge in Safe-Haven Demand: - Geopolitical Risks: U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and tensions in the Middle East have heightened risk aversion [4] - De-dollarization: Central banks globally purchased a net 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters, with China increasing its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, leading to a decrease in the dollar's share of foreign exchange reserves to 56.32% [4] - Technical Buying Pressure: The gold price broke through the resistance level of $4380 set in October, triggering algorithmic trading, with gold ETFs experiencing net inflows for five consecutive weeks [4] Market Divergence and Risk Alerts - Bullish Camp: Central bank gold purchases and an ongoing rate-cut cycle support a bullish outlook, with Goldman Sachs predicting $4900 and JPMorgan forecasting $5055 [5] - Cautious Camp: Concerns over short-term overbought conditions and policy fluctuations, with Citigroup warning of a pullback to $4280-$4300 and economist Guan Qingyou cautioning that rapid price increases may not be beneficial [5] - Historical Lessons: In October, gold prices twice touched $4380 before experiencing a single-day drop of nearly $200 (a 6.3% decline), with the current RSI indicating overbought conditions in the 74-80 range [5] Practical Advice for Ordinary Users - Consumer Pitfalls: - Wedding essentials should prioritize gold jewelry priced by weight in markets like Shenzhen's Shui Bei, avoiding brand premiums of around 30% [6] - Consider refurbishing old gold or opting for "gold-plated silver" alternatives, which are priced at only one-fifth of solid gold [6] - Investment Allocation: - Tools: Gold ETFs (with fees <0.5%) and bank gold savings should be preferred, avoiding high-leverage futures due to frequent liquidations at 80x leverage in October [7] - Strategy: Maintain positions at ≤10% of liquid assets, employing dollar-cost averaging to mitigate high-price risks and avoid chasing prices [7] Future Trend Core Contradictions - Upward Momentum: The erosion of the dollar's credit system is transforming gold from an "anti-inflation tool" to the "ultimate asset against sovereign credit risk," with Morgan Stanley predicting gold prices could challenge $7000-$8000 by 2030 [8] - Downward Risks: If the Federal Reserve's independence is restored or if global economic recovery exceeds expectations, a prolonged bear market for gold similar to the 1980-2000 period could re-emerge [8]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historic high of nearly $4600 per ounce, with a significant annual increase of approximately 70% in 2025, marking the largest annual rise since the 1979 oil crisis [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The current surge in international gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with an 18% increase that year. From 2020 to 2023, gold prices frequently surpassed $2000 per ounce, and in 2024, they exceeded $2800 per ounce with a 27% annual increase. By March 2025, prices crossed $3000 per ounce, and by October, they surpassed $4000 per ounce, culminating in a record high near $4600 per ounce by year-end [1] - Domestic gold prices in China have also risen significantly, with gold jewelry prices increasing from around 800 yuan per gram to approximately 1360 yuan per gram within the year [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased global demand for safe-haven assets and a decline in the credibility of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle and the weakening dollar have reduced the holding costs of gold [1] - Geopolitical risks and rising global economic uncertainties have intensified market demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset, leading to a surge in prices [2] - Central banks worldwide are diversifying their reserves and significantly increasing gold holdings, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [2] Group 3: Related Precious Metals - The increase in international gold prices has also led to substantial rises in other precious metals, with silver and platinum prices rising over 140% and palladium over 100% last year. The strong performance of gold has activated sector rotation, boosting the overall valuation of precious metals [2] - Industrial demand for certain precious metals, such as silver, has also supported price increases, driven by rapid developments in industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The gold market is expected to enter a new phase of dynamic balance and multiple forces at play by 2026, according to industry experts [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach, recognize market risks, and follow diversification principles in their gold investments, employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging to smooth returns [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in international gold prices, which reached a historical high of nearly $4600 per ounce in January 2025, marking a 70% increase for the year, the largest annual gain since the 1979 oil crisis [1] - The upward trend in international gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with an 18% increase that year, and continued with multiple breaches of the $2000 per ounce mark from 2020 to 2023, culminating in a 27% increase in 2024 [1] - Factors driving the strong performance of gold include rising global risk aversion and a decline in the credibility of the US dollar, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle and the US government debt surpasses $38 trillion, leading investors to seek gold as a safe haven [1][2] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties are significant contributors to the rising gold prices, with increased demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [2] - Central banks worldwide are diversifying their reserves and significantly increasing gold holdings, which has become a crucial factor in driving up gold prices [2] - Domestic gold prices are closely correlated with international prices over the long term, but short-term fluctuations are influenced by exchange rates and unique supply-demand dynamics in the domestic market [2] Group 3 - The rise in international gold prices has also led to substantial increases in the prices of other precious metals, with silver and platinum prices rising over 140% and palladium over 100% last year [2] - The strong performance of gold has activated a rotation in the precious metals sector, leading to increased valuations and capital inflows into related metals like silver and platinum group metals [2] - Industrial demand for certain precious metals, such as silver, is supported by the rapid growth of industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and the expansion of data centers and artificial intelligence [2]

Market Performance - On January 12, US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.17% and the S&P 500 up 0.16%, both reaching historical highs. The Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.26% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly saw gains, with Google A rising by 1% and surpassing a market capitalization of $4 trillion. Apple increased by 0.34% as it plans to collaborate with Google on AI features for Siri [3] - Walmart's stock rose by 3%, achieving a historical high with a market cap exceeding $940 billion [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 4.26%, with significant gains in popular Chinese stocks such as Kingsoft Cloud (up over 21%) and Alibaba (up over 10%) [3] Bond and Currency Market - US Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 1 basis point. The dollar index ended its consecutive rise, dropping nearly 0.6% from its daily high [5] - The offshore yuan reached its highest point since May 2023 [5] Commodity Market - Gold prices surged, with spot gold rising by 1.84% to $4,592.13 per ounce, hitting a record high of $4,630.21 during the session. COMEX gold futures increased by 2.28% [6] - Silver also saw significant gains, with spot silver up 6.30% and COMEX silver futures up 6.95% [6] - Crude oil prices rose, with WTI crude up 1.22% to $59.84 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.41% to $64.23 per barrel [7] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that gold is benefiting from increased demand for safe-haven assets, a depreciating dollar, and rising inflation expectations in the US. Political uncertainty is enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [9] - The focus is shifting towards the upcoming US Q4 earnings season, with major banks like JPMorgan set to report soon. Investors are also awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could influence expectations regarding future Federal Reserve rate cuts [9]

Market Overview - On January 12, U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.17%, the S&P 500 up 0.16%, both reaching historical highs, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.26% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly increased, with Google A rising 1% to surpass a market cap of $4 trillion, and Apple up 0.34% as it partners with Google for AI support [3] - Walmart's stock rose 3%, reaching a historical high with a market cap exceeding $940 billion [3] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 4.26%, with significant gains in popular Chinese stocks: Kingsoft Cloud up over 21%, Zhihu up 17%, Alibaba up over 10%, and others like Bilibili and Xpeng Motors also seeing substantial increases [3][5] Bond and Currency Market - U.S. Treasury yields increased but remained below earlier panic levels, with the 10-year yield slightly up by 1 basis point [6] - The U.S. dollar index ended its consecutive rise, dropping nearly 0.6% from its daily high, while the offshore RMB reached its highest point since May 2023 [6] Precious Metals - Gold prices surged, with spot gold rising 1.84% to $4,592.13 per ounce, hitting a record high of $4,630.21 during the session [7] - Silver also saw significant gains, with spot silver up 6.30% and COMEX silver futures up 6.95% [7] Oil Market - Crude oil prices increased, with the main WTI contract up 1.22% to $59.84 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.41% to $64.23 per barrel [8][9] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that gold is benefiting from increased demand for safe-haven assets, a depreciating dollar, and rising inflation expectations in the U.S. [10] - The focus is shifting to the upcoming U.S. Q4 earnings season, with major banks like JPMorgan set to report [10]