| | | | Million | 国语期音 | 敏商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月30日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【棉花&棉纱】 今天郑棉继续下跌,国产棉现货交投清淡;她棉纱市场交投气氛一般,纺企库存够有累积。国内内销数据表现尚可,外需面临 的挑战较大,关税对于纺服出口实质性影响仍未完全落地。目前市场关注的焦点仍在中美贸易战上,目前关于中美之间是否会 进行实质性谈判仍然不确定，再加上特朗普反复元常的政策，预期仍然不明朝。国内即将迎来五一假期 ...

【软商品板块财经动态】4 月 22 日，ICE 原糖主力合约期价承压下行，以 17.83 美分/磅收盘。尽管现 实面偏紧，但市场关注新榨季生产，交易丰产预期。近期巴西 25/26 榨季生产顺利，对巴西糖估产增 加，供应增加令糖价承压，期价在 18 美分以下震荡。外盘糖价走弱及美国关税争端压制郑糖期价。受 外盘走势影响，周二郑糖盘中走弱。当前市场分歧大，进口少、现货紧俏支撑糖价，但新榨季增产压力 及干旱忧虑缓解使上行动能减少。五一假期将至，市场避险情绪升温，短期建议观望，轻仓过节。【纸 浆市场情况】周二期货大幅下跌，因基本面弱势延续。近期白卡纸、铜版纸继续跌，生活用纸暂止跌但 仍弱，纸厂按需采购，成品纸临淡季，需求短期难好转，纸浆供应高位，国内港口库存偏高。4 月 Arauco 宣布辐射松降价 55 美元/吨至 770 美元/吨，预计其他卖家或效仿，虽降价幅度或无法让部分买 家满意，但买家或因补库需求接受，4 月谈判或推迟至 5 月，五一假期结束后开始。Arauco 还决定将南 美漂阔浆报价下调 50 美元/吨至 560 美元/吨。目前纸浆盘面低于加针成本，针叶浆供需矛盾不大，但 关税影响需求预期，阔叶浆高供应 ...

编者按： 离岸市场跑赢在岸市场，互联网 / 科技、消费、医疗保健板块最具优势 如果关税下调，这对中国股市将是重大利好。它可以进一步巩固市场的乐观情绪，缓解投资者对中美紧 张关系进一步升级(可能扩大到非关税措施，如美国存托凭证退市、投资限制和技术出口禁令)的担忧， 改善中国股票的股权风险溢价和估值。 在这种情况下，预计离岸市场将跑赢在岸 A 股市场，大盘互联网 / 科技公司(中国的代表性企业、技术 结构性突破)、消费(通缩风险缓解)和医疗保健(中美紧张关系缓和)板块可能受益最大。 目前的投资策略 —— 耐心、灵活，为曲折发展做好准备 尽管言论令人期待，市场反应积极，但目前尚无证据证实双方正在进行有效的双边谈判对话。 4月23日，摩根士丹利发布研究报告指出，在关税大幅下调的情形下，预计大盘互联网 / 科技、消费和 医疗保健板块表现出色，离岸市场表现将优于在岸市场。然而，鉴于达成协议的难度较高且存在根本利 益冲突，近期建议保持耐心并采取平衡策略。 事件经过 美国总统特朗普隔夜发表声明，称将大幅降低对中国的关税，美国财政部长也表示预计中美关税紧张局 势在未来会有所缓和，市场情绪因此显著改善。隔夜，纳斯达克金龙指数上涨 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a tendency towards a certain direction but with low operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ★☆★, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability and suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Apple: ななな, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] - Log: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability and waiting and seeing [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - 20 -号 Rubber: ななな, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] Core Views - The overall market shows different trends in various commodities. For most commodities, the reports suggest a wait - and - see approach due to factors such as uncertain supply and demand, macro - economic impacts, and trade risks [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures slightly declined today, with sluggish domestic spot trading and poor performance in the textile enterprise market. Domestic retail data is fair, but external demand faces challenges. Due to trade risks, the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton may be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [2] Sugar - The market's focus has shifted to the 25/26 sugar - cane season. There are potential positive factors in supply and demand, leading to a continuous rebound in Zhengzhou sugar. However, with a downward trend in US sugar and sufficient domestic supply, the upside space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price first rose and then fell. The impact of the cold wave on apples is estimated to be small, but the actual output needs further observation. Spot prices are stable, sales are good, and inventory is low. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 -号 Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The market shows different trends for different types of rubber. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is decreasing. Market sentiment is cautious, and it is recommended to wait and see and hold cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - Pulp prices rose slightly today but showed a weak and volatile trend this week. Domestic port inventory is high, demand is average, and the short - term trend is greatly affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Log - The futures price is running weakly. Although inventory has decreased, demand is weak, and it is expected that the futures price will continue to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is implementing sanctions against entities involved in Iranian oil trade, specifically targeting two Chinese companies for purchasing Iranian crude oil valued at approximately $500 million [3][5] - The sanctions aim to cut off Iran's funding and reduce its oil exports to zero, which includes exports to China [3][5] - The U.S. Treasury's actions are part of President Trump's maximum pressure campaign against Iran, emphasizing the importance of halting Iranian oil exports [3][5] Group 2 - U.S. Senator Steve Daines is visiting Beijing, marking the first high-level visit from the Republican Party to China during Trump's second term, aiming to improve U.S.-China trade relations [5][6] - Daines has expressed a desire for a more balanced trade relationship with China, highlighting that increased exports to China could benefit U.S. employment [6] - The visit is seen as a potential pathway for future engagement between U.S. and Chinese leadership, despite ongoing tensions in trade relations [6][8]