分析师：美国债务成本仍令人担忧 金十数据6月27日讯，BlueBay首席信息官Mark Dowding在报告中说，随着美国预算案料在国会休会前 未来一个月内敲定，对长期债券收益率的担忧将持续存在。在未来几周内，达成协议的压力意味着共和 党内部会做出妥协。即使计入2500-3000亿美元关税收入，财政赤字率仍将维持在GDP的7%左右。"对 美国债务水平不断上升的担忧不太可能在短期内减轻。"BlueBay认为特朗普政府不会推行增税或实质性 支出削减，降低赤字的唯一可能性在于借贷成本显著下降。 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | 2 | | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 国际花生情况及行情回顾 3 | | 第三部分 | 国内花生基本面情况 4 | | | 4 | | | 4 | | | 5 | | | 8 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | | 免责声明 10 | 2025 年 6 月 27 日 花生种植面积增加，种植成本下降 第一部分 前言概要 花生研发报告 花生半年报 银河期货 第 2 页 共 10 页 花生半年报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 花生研发报告 第二部分 国际花生情况及行情回顾 第 3 页 共 10 页 图 1：2011-2024 年主要花生生产国产量（千吨） 图 2：2024 年主要花生生产国（万吨） 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 2011-2024年主要花生生产国产量 中国 美国 塞内加尔 苏丹 印度 尼日利亚 坦桑利亚 1900, 37% 710, 14% 430, 8% 308, 6% 200, 4% 170, 3% 175, 4% 110, 2% 1149, 22% 2024年主要 ...

Core Insights - The China Business Conditions Index (BCI) for June recorded at 49.3, a slight decline from May's 50.3, indicating a contraction in business conditions [1] Group 1: Business Indices - The BCI is composed of four sub-indices, with two declining, one rising, and one remaining unchanged this month [1] - The Business Sales Expectations Index decreased from 57.3 in the previous month to 54.6 this month [1] - The Business Profit Expectations Index also saw a decline, dropping from 46.6 last month to 43.8 this month [1] - The Business Financing Environment Index remained stable at 49.1 [1] - The Business Inventory Expectations Index increased slightly from 48.3 last month to 49.8 this month [1] Group 2: Cost and Price Expectations - The Labor Cost Expectations Index experienced a minor decline from 60.7 last month to 59.9 this month [1] - The Total Cost Expectations Index also saw a small decrease, from 62.7 last month to 59.2 this month [1] - The Consumer Goods Price Expectations Index fell from 45.2 last month to 43.8 this month [1] - The Intermediate Goods Price Expectations Index increased slightly from 33.6 last month to 36.6 this month [1]

Core Viewpoint - Burberry's proactive price reduction strategy has led to a significant recovery in its stock price, increasing over 70% since mid-April 2023, despite facing severe challenges in the luxury goods sector [2][6]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Burberry reported revenues of £2.461 billion, a 17% decrease year-on-year, with adjusted operating profit down 94% to £26 million [2][5]. - Comparable store sales fell by 12% for the fiscal year, with the Asia-Pacific market experiencing a 16% decline [3][5]. - The fourth quarter showed a narrowing decline in comparable store sales to 6%, better than the market expectation of 7.78% [5]. Strategic Changes - New CEO Joshua Schulman has implemented a strategic shift focusing on classic products and reducing prices, moving away from previous high-end strategies [6][7]. - The company plans to cut approximately 1,700 jobs, which is nearly 20% of its global workforce, aiming to save £60 million by fiscal year 2027 [6][8]. Market Dynamics - Japan was the only market to show growth for Burberry, with a slight increase of 1%, primarily driven by spending from Chinese tourists [4]. - The outlet channel has become increasingly important, with Burberry being referred to as the "Outlet Queen," as it has performed well despite challenges in high-end retail locations [8][10]. Inventory and Pricing Strategy - Burberry has faced significant inventory issues, leading to a 7% decrease in total inventory at constant exchange rates [11]. - The company's gross margin fell to 62.5%, down 470 basis points at constant exchange rates, primarily due to discounting actions to manage excess inventory [11].

"中国的造船企业技术水平不断提高，质量也在改善，如果维持当前的建造量，差距只会越来越大"，今 治造船相关人士表现出危机感。如果成功将JMU收为子公司，则二者的总建造量将跃居全球第4…… 日本联盟将跃居世界第四 如果今治造船成功把JMU纳为子公司，那么今治的年建造量将提高至约500万总吨，达到可竞争全球第 二的规模。此次举措旨在通过在材料采购上发挥规模优势，在成本层面对抗中韩企业。造船在日美关税 谈判中成为重要筹码，在国家安全保障领域的重要性越来越高，今治造船将把建造的船型扩大至舰艇， 以此来满足市场需求。 根据日本国土交通省海事局的数据，2024年今治造船的建造量为328万总吨，位居世界第6位，JMU为 141万总吨，位居世界第12位。如果将今治造船和JMU的数据简单相加，则总量达到469万总吨，将超越 韩国韩华海洋（Hanwha Ocean，370 万总吨），跃居全球第4位。 虽然与总吨位为1333万吨的中国船舶集团（CSSC）相比尚有差距，但规模已接近排名第二的韩国HD现 代（614万吨）和排名第三的韩国三星重工（561万吨）。 由于全球海运景气，日本国内造船业乍看起来表现良好。JMU的2024财年（截至 ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 盘整 油价重回基本面定价，消费旺季 VS 供给增加，油价盘整。本周一周二油 价大幅下跌，地缘风险溢价被挤出，油价重回基本面定价。OPEC+从 4 月 份开始正式增产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消费旺季，油价 下方有一定支撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大。策略：轻 仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【490-520】 LPG 反弹偏空 地缘缓和，成本端下降，液化气承压。近期地缘溢价挤出，成本端原油回 落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端 利好，港口库存连续下降。策略：成本端利空，可轻仓试空。PG【4200-4300】 L 空头反弹 上中游库存显著下滑，库存压力缓解，成本端焦煤反弹。华北基差转负， 淡季继续补库意愿不足，华北基差为 19（环比+71）。本周检修力度增加， 预计产量继续下降，近期装置重启增多，预计下周产量增加。需求淡季， 下游补库力度放缓，关注后续库存去化力度。策略：短多长空。L 【7250-7400】 PP 空头反弹 现货市场成交乏力，短期跟随成本反弹。华东基差为 81（环比-35）。近 期检修力度加剧，预计 ...

Market Review - The main contract for stainless steel closed at 12,635 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.76% (+95 CNY), and a single position of 224,900 lots, which is a decrease of 48,262 lots compared to the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - A stainless steel plant in East China has entered a regular maintenance period until June 30, which is expected to impact the production of 300 series stainless steel by nearly 10,000 tons [2] - As of June 27, the benchmark price for stainless steel plates was 11,764.29 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.63% compared to the beginning of the month (12,207.14 CNY/ton). On June 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had 112,446 tons of stainless steel warehouse receipts, a decrease of 421 tons from the previous trading day [3] Institutional Perspectives - According to Ruida Futures, the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy has increased the cost of nickel resource supply. The Philippines plans to implement a nickel ore export ban starting June 2025, which will exacerbate raw material disruptions. The production capacity of Indonesian nickel iron is increasing, leading to a significant rebound in output, while nickel iron prices have recently dropped, reducing support for raw material costs. Steel mills are maintaining normal production but are reducing the output of the severely loss-making 300 series stainless steel due to cost pressures, although total output remains at historically high levels, indicating ongoing supply pressure. Demand is entering a traditional off-season, with increased macro market uncertainty and export demand pressure, while downstream performance remains cautious. Domestic inventory reduction is not performing well. On the technical side, the reduction in positions has weakened short positions, breaking through the MA10 pressure. The recommendation is to observe for the time being [4] - New Lake Futures reported that a market rumor indicated Qingshan plans to reduce production by about 150,000 tons in July, primarily affecting the 300 series. This news has significantly boosted market sentiment, leading to a strong rebound in stainless steel prices. However, due to overall weak consumption of stainless steel, the rebound is expected to be limited [4]

证券研究报告 煤炭开采 行业深度报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 27 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邹佩轩 SAC：S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 邱达治 SAC：S1350525050001 qiudazhi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 煤炭行业中期策略报告 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——成本倒挂煤价筑底，供需再平衡龙头先启航 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 煤炭成本刚性上涨，煤价跌破完全成本，行业或已至底部。煤炭行业常以北方港口 下水煤价格跟踪煤价涨跌，为直观对比煤炭成本与价格标杆，我们选取中国神华、 陕西煤业、中煤能源三家代表我国晋陕蒙动力煤主产地资源禀赋的龙头上市煤企， 根据其较为一致的成本核算准则及较长期的历史财报数据，结合行业公允的运输成 本，测算出 2014-2024 年行业的完全成本及现金成本。据 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-27 双焦显著去库，期货价格反弹 钢材：淡季表需稳定，成本支撑仍在 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于2973元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3103元/吨。现货方面，根据钢联数据显示，五大材 钢材库存去化暂停，仅螺纹库存去化继续，表需微增。昨日，全国建材成交9.92万吨。 综合来看：螺纹方面，本周产量继续回升，库存小幅去化，淡季需求表现稳定。热卷方面，库存环比回升，产量 维持高位，热卷价格面临出口及国内消费挑战。整体来看，双焦超跌后叠加安全月检查，成本支撑仍在，且临近 国内宏观政策窗口期，钢材价格维持震荡。关注后续成材淡季需求及库存表现。 策略 单边：无 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁水产量微增，矿价小幅回升 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅上涨。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于705.5元/吨，涨幅0.64%。 现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅上涨，贸易商报价积极性一般，交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按 需补库为主。需求端，本期日均铁水产量242.29万吨， ...

库存 成本利润 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 01/01 01/24 02/16 03/11 04/03 04/26 05/19 06/11 07/04 07/27 08/19 09/11 10/04 10/27 11/19 12/12 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：中国（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 12/17 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：宁夏（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 12/17 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：内 ...