O 2025 年上半年财政数据公布,整体来看总量和结构基本延续持续改善趋势, 在政府债发行前置下,广义财政支出力度持续加大,对经济增长起到了重要 支撑。目前来看,上半年财政收支缺口规模有限,今年的财政环境更像 2022 年,年内再度增发国债的必要性不强,可以通过投放新型政策性金融工具和 盘活地方专项债限额的方式过渡。不过,如果下半年预算内收入走弱和土地 收入持续下行同时发生的话,不排除出现 2023 年四季度增发国债的可能 性。 0 一、广义财政延续扩张,收支差创年内新高 2025 年上半年,财政一、二本账合计收入增速-0.6%,（前值-1.3%）,合计 O 支出增速 8.9%(前值 6.6%),收入增速降幅小幅收窄,支出增速回升上 行,带动广义财政支出与收入增速差再度上行,创 2023 年以来新高,展现 出上半年财政积极靠前发力。一本账收入依然较弱但结构显著优化,支出增 速小幅回落,二本账收入边际改善,专项债发行节奏加快支撑广义支出增速 大幅上行。 二、收入结构显著优化,土地收入大幅回升 ● 宏观研究报告 收入结构显著优化,广义支出回升上行 — 2025 年上半年财政数据解读 2025 年 7月 25 日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the bond ETF market, particularly the newly launched Sci-Tech Bond ETFs, reflects a strong institutional demand for transparent, low-cost, and highly liquid investment tools, marking a golden period for bond index investing [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Bond ETFs launched on July 10, 2023, and by July 24, their total scale reached 1010.86 billion yuan, with significant trading activity observed [2][3]. - From July 17 to July 24, the trading volume of these ETFs totaled 722.78 billion yuan, indicating high investor interest [2]. Group 2: Product Characteristics - The Sci-Tech Bond ETFs track various indices, including the China Securities AAA Sci-Tech Innovation Corporate Bond Index, which focuses on high-credit-rated corporate bonds with a technology innovation label [3]. - The ETFs utilize a T+0 trading mechanism and a physical redemption model, enhancing trading flexibility and arbitrage opportunities [4]. Group 3: Institutional Demand - The surge in investment in Sci-Tech Bond ETFs is attributed to the ongoing "asset shortage" in the bond market, where these ETFs offer attractive coupon rates and meet current allocation needs [4][5]. - Institutional investors, including banks, trusts, and insurance companies, are the primary participants in this market, driven by the ETFs' high liquidity and the ability to pledge them for financing [10]. Group 4: Market Expansion - Prior to the launch of the Sci-Tech Bond ETFs, the first batch of 8 benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs had already gained significant traction, with a total scale of 1317.6 billion yuan by July 24 [7][8]. - The overall bond ETF market has expanded to 39 products, with a total scale of 5075.30 billion yuan, nearly doubling since the end of 2024 [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The continuous support from regulatory bodies for the development of the Sci-Tech bond market is expected to inject certainty into the market, enhancing the attractiveness of passive investment tools [5][6]. - The broad coverage of the underlying indices, which span the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, provides ample liquidity support for investors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company Jinlang Technology Co., Ltd. has responded to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding its application for issuing convertible bonds, detailing its main business operations, financial indicators over the past three years, and risks associated with overseas operations [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jinlang Technology, established in 2005 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in March 2019, specializes in the research, production, sales, and service of string inverters for photovoltaic power generation systems [1]. - The company is the first publicly listed firm focusing on string inverters, with products sold in various countries including the UK, USA, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India, and Mexico [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be 58.9 billion, 61 billion, and 65.4 billion respectively, indicating a growth trend; however, net profit is expected to decline from 10.6 billion in 2022 to 6.91 billion in 2024 [4]. - In Q1 of this year, the company reported a revenue of 15.18 billion, an increase of 8.65% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.95 billion, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 859% [4]. Group 3: Business Segments - The main business segments include photovoltaic inverters and distributed photovoltaic power generation, with the inverter segment focusing on grid-connected and storage inverters [3]. - In 2023, revenue from grid-connected inverters reached 40.6 billion (66.6% of total revenue), while in 2024, it is expected to decrease to 37.9 billion (57.9% of total revenue) [4]. - Revenue from storage inverters is projected to grow from 4.3 billion in 2023 to 5.7 billion in 2024, increasing its share from 7% to 16.5% [4]. - The distributed photovoltaic power generation segment is also expected to grow, with revenue increasing from 14.8 billion in 2023 to 20.8 billion in 2024, raising its share from 24% to 31.8% [4]. Group 4: Market Environment - The company maintains a global strategy of parallel development in domestic and international markets, with domestic demand for inverters continuing to grow despite competitive pressures affecting product and sales profit margins [5]. - The overseas market is identified as a key growth area, although there have been declines in inverter exports to Italy (down 9.7%), the UK (down 31.6%), and Poland (down 17.4%) compared to 2022 [5]. Group 5: Profitability and Challenges - The company's gross profit margin has shown a downward trend, with 2024 expected to see a record high in gross profit but a decline in net profit due to increased expenses [7]. - The average gross margin has decreased across all business segments, with the core grid-connected inverter segment experiencing the most significant decline [7]. - To address market competition and declining margins, the company is implementing strategies such as optimizing product and customer structures, cost reduction, and strengthening technological research and development [8].

·上半年全国一般公共预算超14万亿元全国财政支出持续增长 ·证监会：统筹化解处置房企债券违约风险和支持构建房地产发展新模式 ·广期所：正在推进光伏组件期货研发 【国内要闻】 ·财政部7月25日发布数据显示，2025年上半年，全国一般公共预算支出141271亿元，同比增长3.4%。各 级财政部门持续加强对重点领域的支出保障。其中，社会保障和就业支出同比增长9.2%；科学技术支 出同比增长9.1%；教育支出同比增长5.9%；卫生健康支出同比增长4.3%。收入方面，今年上半年，全 国一般公共预算收入115566亿元，同比下降0.3%。部分行业税收表现良好。 ·财政部经济建设司副司长吴盖7月25日在财政部新闻发布会上表示，今年1月和4月，财政部分两批累计 预拨超长期特别国债资金1620亿元。近期财政部配合国家发展改革委测算确定了各地区2025年资金规模 并下达第三批超长期特别国债资金670亿元，剩余资金将在10月份下达。 ·中国证监会7月24日召开证监会系统党的建设暨2025年年中工作会议，其中提到，精准防控资本市场重 点领域风险。统筹化解处置房企债券违约风险和支持构建房地产发展新模式，稳步推动融资平台债务风 险化解 ...

在近期的金融市场上，美债收益率呈现短线攀升的走势，引发了投资者和经济学家的广泛关注。美债收益率是全球金融市场的重要风向标之一，它不仅反映 了美国国债的利息回报，也在一定程度上揭示了市场对美国经济未来走势的预期。美债收益率的变化，尤其是短期内的攀升，常常被视为市场对美联储货币 政策变化的反应，甚至可能意味着紧缩政策的提前布局。 美债收益率的上升，尤其是在短期债券市场上的表现，往往会直接影响到资本市场的风险偏好。长期以来，美联储一直采取宽松的货币政策，通过低利率和 量化宽松等手段刺激经济复苏。随着美国经济逐渐走出疫情阴影，通胀压力不断加大，市场对美联储是否会加快紧缩的节奏充满了讨论。近期美债收益率的 快速攀升，恰恰反映了市场对美联储货币政策转向的预期。 济数据来判断市场的反应。 美债收益率的短期攀升，确实反映了市场对紧缩预期的反应。虽然美联储的货币政策调整尚未完全明确，但市场已经提前对这一变化做出了反应。这种提前 反应既是市场对未来经济形势的预测，也是资本市场对于利率变化的敏感表现。在这种背景下，投资者在做出决策时，需要更加谨慎，密切关注美联储和全 球经济的变化，以便及时调整投资策略，迎接可能到来的市场波动。 当 ...

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道7月25日，财政部召开2025年上半年财政收支情况新闻发布会。 上半年，全国一般公共预算收入约11.56万亿元，同比下降0.3%，降幅较一季度收窄0.8个百分点。其 中，全国税收收入9.29万亿元，下降1.2%；非税收入2.27万亿元，增长3.7%。分中央和地方看，上半年 中央一般公共预算收入4.86万亿元，下降2.8%；地方一般公共预算本级收入6.7万亿元，增长1.6%。 上半年，全国一般公共预算支出14.13万亿元，同比增长3.4%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算本 级支出1.99万亿元，增长9%；地方一般公共预算支出12.14万亿元，增长2.6%。 （财政部2025年上半年财政收支情况发布会现场图，21记者现场拍摄） 从主要税种收入状况来看，上半年国内增值税3.64万亿元，增长2.8%；企业所得税2.49万亿元，下降 1.9%；国内消费税8980亿元，增长1.7%；进口货物增值税、消费税8729亿元，下降6.1%；个人所得税 7945亿元，增长8%。另外，上半年出口退税1.27万亿元，增长11.6%。 今年上半年我国GDP增长5.3%，受物价低迷、出口退税增长较快等 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, A - shares and Hong Kong stocks showed different performances, with the overall market - value style in A - shares being dominant, and the bond market slightly recovered in June after fluctuations from April to May. REITs and convertible bond funds led the performance, and "fixed - income +" funds performed well driven by the equity market [4]. - Most fund managers expect the economy to continue a weak recovery in Q3 2025, with monetary policy remaining loose but limited room for interest - rate decline. Strategies focus on coupon income from medium - short - duration, medium - high - grade urban investment bonds and financial bonds, and the overall tone is prudent and flexible [40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 固收型公募基金2025Q2季报数据解读 Performance - In Q2 2025, in the context of weak economic recovery, gradually restored equity sentiment, and intensified long - short game and fluctuations in the bond market, REITs and convertible bond funds led the performance, and "fixed - income +" funds performed well driven by the equity market. Pure - bond fund net values generally recovered [4]. - The top - performing funds in terms of Q2 2025 compounded unit net - value growth rate (%) were REITs funds (8.07%), convertible bond funds (3.49%), and QDII bond - type funds (1.38) [5]. Scale - By the end of Q2 2025, passive index - type bond funds received significant capital inflows and had the fastest scale growth [8]. Leverage - As of June 30, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the overall fund leverage showed an upward trend [11]. Duration - As of June 30, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the fitted durations of pure - bond funds all showed an upward trend [14]. Weighted Position Changes of Fixed - Income + Funds - By the end of Q2 2025, the convertible - bond positions of different types of fixed - income + funds were basically the same as in the previous quarter, while the stock positions all showed a downward trend [17]. - The top five industries for stock increase were non - bank finance, banking, communications, electronics, and medicine; the top five industries for stock reduction were food and beverage, automobiles, coal, basic chemicals, and home appliances [28]. Individual Stock Positions of Fixed - Income + Funds - The top ten stocks with the highest market value of holdings in Q2 2025 were Zijin Mining, Tencent Holdings, Yangtze Power, Contemporary Amperex Technology, China Merchants Bank, Midea Group, Kweichow Moutai, Alibaba - W, SF Holdings, and Haier Smart Home [30]. - The top ten stocks with the largest increase in market value of holdings in Q2 2025 were New H3C Technologies, Inphi Corporation, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, Bank of Hangzhou, China Minsheng Bank, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., Zhaojin Mining Industry, China Merchants Bank, Zhongjin Gold, and SF Holdings [32]. - The top ten stocks with the largest decrease in market value of holdings in Q2 2025 were Wuliangye, Midea Group, Kweichow Moutai, Wanhua Chemical, Zijin Mining, Honglu Steel Structure, Hunan Gold, BYD, Shunxin Agriculture, and Luzhou Laojiao [34]. 3.2 固收型重点基金2025Q2后市展望观点汇总 Key Short - Term Bond Fund Managers' Views - Most short - term bond fund managers expect the bond market to continue the volatile market with high winning probability but low odds, and the bond - market trend is mainly determined by the liability side and policy orientation [39]. - Strategies focus on coupon income from medium - short - duration, medium - high - grade urban investment bonds and financial bonds, and the overall tone is prudent and flexible [40]. Key Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Managers' Views - Most medium - and long - term bond fund managers expect the bond market to continue the volatile pattern, with loose monetary policy continuing to support the bond market, while domestic demand is weak and the real - estate market is weakening marginally [41]. - Some managers suggest actively participating in interest - rate bond band trading, while others believe that the space for credit - spread compression is limited. Most still focus on medium - high - grade credit bonds [41]. Equity - Linked Fixed - Income Fund Managers' Views - For stock assets, most managers are relatively optimistic about the medium - term market outlook. Low - equity - position fixed - income + fund managers are relatively conservative, while some medium - and high - equity - position managers will increase the exploration and allocation in industries with relatively guaranteed short - and medium - term supply - demand environments and reasonable valuations [42]. - For convertible - bond assets, the supply - demand balance in the convertible - bond market remains tight, with overall high valuations and potential increased volatility, but there are still structural opportunities. Some managers will maintain a neutral - to - low position and shift to equity - oriented and balanced varieties [42]. - For pure - bond assets, managers generally maintain a neutral view, expecting the central - bank policy to remain consistent, the capital market to remain loose, and limited upward space for interest rates [42]. Key High - Position Convertible - Bond Enhanced Fund Managers' Views - Managers will maintain a relatively positive position, seize structural opportunities, and pay attention to the layout opportunities in technology self - controllability and the allocation opportunities after the sentiment of new consumption and innovative drugs cools down [45]. - They believe that the convertible - bond market has a relatively high valuation, with short - term cost - effectiveness and fault - tolerance rate reduced, but there are still structural opportunities, especially in equity - oriented convertible bonds [45]. QDII Bond - Fund Managers' Views - The global market in Q2 2025 was still dominated by policy. The impact of Trump's tariff policy continued to push up inflation expectations, and there were differences in the market's pricing of the Fed's interest - rate cut [46]. - In the future, although the probability of a US recession is relatively low, attention should be paid to the recurrence of tariff policies, and the US bond market may fluctuate bidirectionally in the short term [46][47]. REITs Fund Managers' Views - In Q2 2025, the performance of different types of REITs varied. The performance of rental - protection REITs was stable, the industrial - park REITs were under pressure, the consumer - infrastructure REITs performed steadily, the transportation REITs showed growth driven by traffic flow, the warehousing - logistics REITs were under pressure in terms of revenue, and the energy and environmental - protection REITs showed different performances [50][51][52].

三菱日联：政局不稳及美债收益率支撑美元，日元承压 金十数据7月25日讯，三菱日联的Derek Halpenny在报告中表示，在日本执政联盟在参议院选举中失去 多数席位后，日元可能难以实现反弹，因国内政治不确定性仍居高不下。他指出，日本可能将出现领导 层更替，并可能引发大选。此外，美国短端收益率仍将对美元构成支撑。美国周四公布的初请数据表 明，尽管劳动力市场略显疲软，但整体依然稳定，这与美联储主席鲍威尔抵御降息的政治压力的立场相 一致。 ...

上半年财政运行总体平稳，财政支出更加给力，推动经济平稳运行。 "真金白银"的财政收支数据揭晓。 税收被称为"经济晴雨表"，不过受工业品出厂价格指数(PPI）下行、经济下行、减税等多重因素影响， 今年以来全国税收收入出现下滑。 财政部数据显示，今年上半年，全国税收收入约9.29万亿元，同比下降1.2%。这低于按不变价格计算的 上半年经济增速（5.3%）。 以现价计算的税收收入增速低于经济增速并不鲜见。在PPI下行期，工业品价格下跌直接影响增值税等 税收收入增长。而近年支持稳楼市、小微企业、科技创新系列减税政策落地，也带来税收减收。而产业 结构转型升级，传统产业税收增长乏力乃至下滑，而新兴产业税收尚在培育期。这些因素使得近年税收 增速低于经济增速。 不过从趋势来看，今年以来税收降幅持续缩窄，这也反映经济向稳向好。 唐龙生表示，从4月份起，月度税收收入连续3个月同比保持增长，其中，4月份增长1.9%，5月份增长 0.6%，6月份增长1%。上半年，主要税种增长平稳，国内增值税、国内消费税、个人所得税分别增长 2.8%、1.7%、8%；出口退税1.27万亿元，比去年同期多退1322亿元，有力支持外贸出口。 全国一般公共 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share index has a clear bottom line, and the trading volume in the two markets has increased, driving the index to fluctuate upwards. The "anti-involution" policy has led to a full recovery of theme stocks. The 1.2 trillion hydropower project in the Yarlung Zangbo River has directly promoted the entire infrastructure industry chain such as water conservancy and building materials to strengthen. The market shows the characteristic of "blue-chip stocks setting the stage, and theme stocks performing". Futures index should be intervened after a pullback [3]. - Although the international situation is complex, the current market expectations are sufficient, and the disturbances caused by Sino-US and Iran-Israel issues are limited. The US has lifted the restrictions on H20 chips. The external influence is mainly the Fed's interest rate decision. A rate cut is beneficial for the appreciation of the RMB, the return of foreign capital, and the inflow of new incremental funds, which may start as early as September. Currently, policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, the bottom line of the stock index is clear, and new technologies and new consumption are promoting the economic expectation to stabilize and recover. After the risk-free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium and long-term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle. A breakthrough must be accompanied by an increase in trading volume. This week, the trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.5 trillion (MA5), and the index still has upward momentum [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices continued to strengthen. As of July 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3605.73, up 2.02% for the week and 7.58% year-to-date; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11193.06, up 2.56% for the week and 7.47% year-to-date; the ChiNext Index closed at 2345.37, up 3.00% for the week and 9.51% year-to-date; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index closed at 1032.84, up 2.51% for the week and 9.51% year-to-date; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2812.44, up 1.73% for the week and 4.76% year-to-date; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4149.04, up 2.23% for the week and 5.44% year-to-date; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6293.60, up 3.18% for the week and 9.92% year-to-date; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6701.12, up 2.27% for the week and 12.48% year-to-date [13]. - Among the global indices, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.78%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.00%, and the Biotechnology Index rose 3.68%. In terms of industries, most of the 31 first-level Shenwan industry indices rose this week. Sectors such as building materials, coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals rose significantly, while a few sectors such as banks and communications fell [16]. Liquidity - In June, the total social financing exceeded expectations, and the growth rate reached a new high, rising to 4.6% (a month-on-month increase of 2.3 pct), the highest growth rate since 2023, indicating a significant improvement in corporate liquidity [14][15]. - The capital interest rate (the 7-day reverse repurchase rate of deposit-taking financial institutions in the interbank market, DR007) remained at a low level. In May, the net MLF injection was 37.5 billion yuan. The yield of the 10-year treasury bond was around 1.65%. In June, the total social financing rebounded strongly, mainly driven by policies, and the endogenous driving force still needs to be consolidated. The new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, and the stock growth rate rose to 8.9% (a month-on-month increase of 0.2 pct), reaching a new high this year. Government bonds increased by 507.2 billion yuan year-on-year (contributing 58% of the social financing increment), reflecting an accelerated pace of fiscal efforts, with special bonds and special-purpose bonds advancing simultaneously. New RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, and short-term corporate loans became the main driving force. The growth rate of M2 rebounded, and M1 improved significantly. In June, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.3% (a month-on-month increase of 0.4 pct), mainly driven by the low-base effect (deposit diversion caused by manual interest compensation supervision in the same period in 2024) and an increase in corporate deposits [17]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume increased, and the stock index continued to fluctuate strongly. The number of new accounts opened in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, in April dropped to 1.92 million, in May continued to drop to 1.555 million, and in June slightly increased to 1.6464 million. On July 23, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3600 points during intraday trading, the second-highest point since October 2024. The trading volume in the two markets (MA5) exceeded 1.5 trillion, and the index showed strong momentum, with prominent structural market conditions [26]. Index Valuation - As of July 24, 2025, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 15.64, with a percentile of 73.34; the latest PE of the entire market was 20.81, with a percentile of 78.73. Among the major stock indices, the valuation percentiles were in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > CSI 300 > SSE 50. Note: The starting time of the valuation percentile is January 1, 2009 [34]. Index Industry Weights (as of June 30, 2025) - In the SSE 50 Index, the weights of banks, non-bank finance, and food and beverage were relatively high, at 21.34%, 11.18%, and 8.31% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth-largest weighted industry [43]. - In the CSI 300 Index, the weights were relatively dispersed, and the top three weighted industries were banks, non-bank finance, and electronics [43]. - In the CSI 500 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non-bank finance [48]. - In the CSI 1000 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computers [48].