Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PG main contract is running strongly. The domestic chemical industry is firm, and there are expectations for the civilian sector to strengthen during the peak season, but the market valuation is high. The international propane market pattern is loose. Attention should be paid to the weather and the situation of cold snaps in the United States [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - On Wednesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4325 (-10), in Shandong was 4370 (-10), and in South China was 4345 (+0). The price of etherified C4 was 4590 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of -60 (-62), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 81 (+20). FEI was 502 (-10) and CP was 486 (+14) dollars per ton [4] Weekly Views - The PG main contract showed a strong trend. The basis was 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 93 (+21). The cheapest delivery products were civil gas in East China at 4364 (-10), in Shandong at 4440 (+60), and in South China at 4460 (+10); etherified C4 was 4630 (+130). The overseas paper goods prices rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly, the month spread strengthened, the domestic - foreign price difference weakened, PG - CP reached 128 (-9), and PG - FEI reached 111 (-2). The discount strengthened. The arrival discount of propane in East China was 78 (+8), and the FOB discounts of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were -2.75 dollars (+3.75), 22 dollars (+13), and 39 dollars (+13) respectively. The freight weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -66 (+7). The naphtha crack spread changed little and remained at a relatively high level this year. The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong improved slightly, the profit of alkylation units deteriorated, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. Domestic production decreased slightly, the arrival volume was limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71), Donghua Zhangjiagang restarted, and Juzhengyuan and Haiwei stopped for maintenance [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore oscillated, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, and the basis weakened. The HSFO crack in Europe declined, and the EW strengthened this week. The 0.5% crack in Singapore rebounded, the monthly spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil decreased slightly, ARA's residual oil increased, Fujairah's residual oil increased, and EIA's residual oil inventory remained flat. The spread between high - and low - sulfur in the outer market rebounded. Singapore's high - sulfur is supported by EW and refinery purchases, but the spot basis is weakening rapidly. It is in a short - term oscillatory pattern, and the short - term downward space for low - sulfur is limited. [6][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from 367.09 to 353.50, a change of - 6.29; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased from 406.14 to 403.35, a change of - 7.88; the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased from - 4.95 to - 7.45, a change of - 0.48; the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 687.85 to 734.17, a change of 1.75; the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 281.71 to - 330.82, a change of - 9.63; the LGO - Brent M1 increased from 30.65 to 34.17, a change of 0.50; the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased from 39.05 to 49.85, a change of - 1.59. [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - **Swap Data**: From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from 359.55 to 348.42, a change of - 6.90; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 decreased from 366.12 to 354.42, a change of - 6.15; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased from 439.87 to 448.06, a change of - 0.93; the price of Singapore Gasoil M1 increased from 90.65 to 96.80, a change of 3.51; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased from - 5.70 to - 8.25, a change of - 0.80; the Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 230.94 to - 268.26, a change of - 26.90. [4] - **Spot Data**: From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the FOB 380cst price in Singapore decreased from 351.45 to 348.03, a change of - 0.09; the FOB VLSFO price decreased from 438.13 to 446.12, a change of - 2.87; the 380 basis increased from - 6.03 to - 5.80, a change of 0.75; the high - sulfur internal - external spread decreased from 3.7 to 3.2, a change of - 2.7; the low - sulfur internal - external spread decreased from 7.5 to 7.2, a change of - 1.2. [5] Domestic FU Data - From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased from 2595 to 2560, a change of 2; the price of FU 05 increased from 2618 to 2609, a change of 3; the price of FU 09 decreased from 2586 to 2578, a change of - 1; the FU 01 - 05 decreased from - 23 to - 49, a change of - 1; the FU 05 - 09 increased from 32 to 31, a change of 4; the FU 09 - 01 decreased from - 9 to 18, a change of - 3. [5] Domestic LU Data - From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased from 3164 to 3266, a change of 19; the price of LU 05 increased from 3154 to 3240, a change of 17; the price of LU 09 increased from 3170 to 3246, a change of 14; the LU 01 - 05 increased from 10 to 26, a change of 2; the LU 05 - 09 increased from - 16 to - 6, a change of 3; the LU 09 - 01 decreased from 6 to - 20, a change of - 5. [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] Key Data Summary BR (Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the BR main contract (12) on November 19 was 10,705, up 200 from the previous day and 225 from the previous week. The open interest was 71,378, down 643 from the previous day and 4,987 from the previous week. The trading volume was 120,480, down 20,666 from the previous day but up 20,847 from the previous week. The warrant quantity was 12,030, down 220 from the previous day and 480 from the previous week. The long - short ratio was 29.67, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1. [4] - **Basis/Spread Data**: The cis - polybutadiene basis was - 100 on November 19 compared to the previous day and - 75 compared to the previous week. The styrene - butadiene basis was - 200 on November 19 compared to the previous day and - 75 compared to the previous week. The 12 - 01 spread was - 40 on November 19, down 45 from the previous day and 40 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was 15 on November 19, down 5 from the previous day but up 10 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4,735 on November 19, down 55 from the previous day and 175 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1,775 on November 19, down 65 from the previous day and 145 from the previous week. [4] - **Spot Data**: The Shandong market price was 10,650 on November 19, up 100 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10,450 on November 19, up 50 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10,500 on November 19, with no daily change but up 200 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,350 on November 19, with no daily change but down 50 from the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,640 on November 19, with no daily change but down 45 from the previous week. [4] - **Profit Data**: The spot processing profit was 800 on November 19, down 104 from the previous day and 207 from the previous week. The import profit was - 699 on November 19, up 102 from the previous day and 532 from the previous week. The export profit was 1,744 on November 19, down 89 from the previous day and 431 from the previous week. [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Data**: The Shandong market price was 7,500 on November 19, up 200 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 7,225 on November 19, up 175 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7,200 on November 19, up 200 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 770 on November 19, with no daily change but down 20 from the previous week. [4] - **Profit Data**: The ethylene cracking profit was N/A on November 19. The carbon - four extraction profit was N/A on November 19. The butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1,589 on November 19, up 175 from the previous day and 135 from the previous week. The import profit was 890 on November 19, up 176 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week. The export profit was - 1,460 on November 19, down 295 from the previous day. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,400 on November 19, down 50 from the previous day but up 200 from the previous week. The ABS production profit was N/A on November 19. The SBS production profit was - 360 on November 19, down 140 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. [4] Data Sources - The data in the report is sourced from Mysteel and Wind [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the daily data tracking of stock index futures on November 18, 2025, including the index trends, the impact of sector fluctuations on the indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the points differences in contract roll - overs and their annualized costs. 3. Summary by Sections Index Trends - On November 18, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.81% to close at 3939.81 points, with a trading volume of 790.949 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.92% to 13080.49 points, with a trading volume of 1135.119 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index declined 1.0%, with a trading volume of 418.065 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index decreased 1.17%, with a trading volume of 306.54 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index dropped 0.3%, with a trading volume of 106.201 billion yuan; and the SSE 300 Index fell 0.65%, with a trading volume of 420.15 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Fluctuations on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 74.98 points from the previous close, and sectors such as non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment significantly pulled the index down [3]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased 84.33 points from the previous close, and sectors like basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment had a significant downward pull on the index [3]. - The SSE 300 Index fell 29.86 points from the previous close, with the electronics sector pulling the index up and sectors such as non - ferrous metals and power equipment pulling it down [3]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped 9.05 points from the previous close, with the electronics and food and beverage sectors pulling the index up and sectors like non - bank finance, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals pulling it down [3]. Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - For IM contracts, the average daily basis of IM00 was - 19.03, IM01 was - 118.81, IM02 was - 351.44, and IM03 was - 580.18 [14]. - For IC contracts, the average daily basis of IC00 was - 16.54, IC01 was - 92.61, IC02 was - 272.32, and IC03 was - 476.66 [14]. - For IF contracts, the average daily basis of IF00 was - 4.59, IF01 was - 21.49, IF02 was - 50.75, and IF03 was - 94.98 [14]. - For IH contracts, the average daily basis of IH00 was - 1.11, IH01 was - 6.98, IH02 was - 9.76, and IH03 was - 17.64 [14]. Points Differences in Contract Roll - Overs and Their Annualized Costs - Data on the points differences in contract roll - overs and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts are presented in the report, including the 15 - minute average points differences and the corresponding annualized costs at different time points [23][24][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PG main contract shows a relatively strong performance. The domestic chemical market remains firm, and there are expectations of a peak - season uptick in the civil gas sector, but the market valuation is on the high side. The international propane market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to weather conditions and the situation of cold snaps in the US [4] 3. Summary According to the Report Content 3.1 Daily Changes - In terms of civil gas on Tuesday, prices in East China were 4335 (-29), in Shandong 4380 (-20), and in South China 4345 (-45). The price of ether - post - carbon - four was 4590 (-80). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of -60 (-14) and a 12 - 01 month - spread of 81 (-8). FEI was 510.26 (+7.26) and CP was 492.18 (+9.18) dollars per ton [4] 3.2 Weekly Views - The PG main contract was on a strong trend. The basis was 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month - spread was 93 (+21). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4364 (-10), Shandong at 4440 (+60), South China at 4460 (+10), and ether - post - carbon - four at 4630 (+130). The overseas paper - based futures rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly, the month - spread strengthened, and the domestic - overseas price difference weakened. The PG - CP reached 128 (-9), and the PG - FEI reached 111 (-2). The discount strengthened. The East China propane arrival discount was 78 (+8), and the FOB discounts for AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were -2.75 dollars (+3.75), 22 dollars (+13), and 39 dollars (+13) respectively. The freight rate weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -66 (+7). The naphtha crack spread changed little and remained at a relatively high level for the year. The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong improved slightly, the profit of alkylation units deteriorated, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. Domestic production decreased slightly, the arrival of goods was limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71), with Donghua Zhangjiagang restarting and Juzhengyuan and Haiwei shutting down for maintenance [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No related content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - supporting willingness [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas production remains high, and with high coal prices squeezing profit margins, corporate production has slightly declined. Demand is weak, so prices may fall further, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large domestic - foreign price differentials and low domestic prices. Domestic demand is weak, and supply is high. New export policies may improve the situation, and prices are expected to bottom out with limited downside [6]. - For rubber, a short - term long - biased trading strategy is recommended, and partial hedging positions can be established by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with high supply and weak demand. Export expectations are weakening, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on price rallies in the medium term [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, although the price may have bottomed out, high warehouse receipt volumes suppress the market. With seasonal demand picking up, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [21]. - For polypropylene, there is high supply pressure and weak demand. High inventory levels persist, and the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand. There may be opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [25]. - For PTA, supply is increasing, and demand is facing challenges. However, there may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply is high, imports are rising, and inventories are building up. It's recommended to short - sell on price rallies [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Data**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.00 yuan/barrel, a 0.43% decline, at 458.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 42.00 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline, to 2558.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 10.00 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase, to 3247.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 6.31 million barrels, a 14.96% decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 2.85 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.25 million barrels to 10.65 million barrels, a 2.33% decline; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.35 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 6.37% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The Taicang price was down 10, Lunan was down 5, and Inner Mongolia was up 7.5. The 01 contract on the futures market was up 1 yuan, at 2030 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 28. The 1 - 5 spread was - 7, at - 123 [2]. Urea - **Market Data**: Shandong's spot price was up 10, Henan was up 10, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market was unchanged at 1662 yuan, with a basis of - 62. The 1 - 5 spread was up 1, at - 74 [5]. Rubber - **Market Data**: Rubber prices rebounded. Typhoons affected rainfall in Thailand. The expiration of November warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Exchange led to positive market expectations. As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.70%, down 0.84 percentage points from the previous week but up 5.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.37%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.38 percentage points from the same period last year. New export orders were not expected to be high. As of November 9, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.63 tons, up 0.03 tons, a 0.03% increase. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.43 tons, a 0.97% increase, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.21 tons, a 1.52% decrease. The total inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.24 tons to 43.87 tons [9]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC01 contract fell 81 yuan to 4520 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 319 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.5%, down 2.2%; the calcium - carbide method was 80.8%, down 0.4%; the ethylene method was 73.3%, down 6.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.5%, down 0.1%. Factory inventories were 32.2 tons, down 1.2 tons, and social inventories were 102.8 tons, down 1.3 tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5467 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6465 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton, with a basis of 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 110.75 yuan/ton, up 10.13 yuan/ton. The profit of the non - integrated styrene plant was - 471.8 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The 1 - 2 spread of styrene was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventories decreased by 2.65 tons to 14.83 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 41.00%, up 0.21%. The PS operating rate was 55.40%, up 1.90%; the EPS operating rate was 51.63%, down 2.32%; the ABS operating rate was 71.80%, up 0.20% [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 115 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.24%, down 0.10%. Production enterprise inventories were 52.92 tons, up 3.90 tons, and trader inventories were 5.00 tons, down 0.01 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 44.49%, down 0.36%. The 1 - 5 spread of LLDPE was - 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6392 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6500 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.59%, up 0.33%. Production enterprise inventories were 62 tons, up 2.01 tons, trader inventories were 21.73 tons, down 1.13 tons, and port inventories were 6.69 tons, up 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 53.28%, up 0.14%. The LLDPE - PP spread was 393 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton [22][23]. PX - **Market Data**: The PX01 contract fell 28 yuan to 6768 yuan. The PX CFR price fell 4 dollars to 827 dollars. The basis was - 14 yuan, down 1 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 14 yuan, up 10 yuan. China's PX operating rate was 86.8%, down 3%; Asian operating rate was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some plants had maintenance or planned to reduce production. PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. In early November, South Korea exported 14.5 tons of PX to China, an increase of 1.8 tons year - on - year. At the end of September, inventories were 402.6 tons, up 10.8 tons month - on - month. PXN was 260 dollars, up 5 dollars; South Korea's PX - MX was 100 dollars, up 1 dollar; the naphtha crack spread was 102 dollars, down 4 dollars [24]. PTA - **Market Data**: The PTA01 contract fell 22 yuan to 4670 yuan. The East China spot price was down 5 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan. The basis was - 72 yuan, up 1 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 56 yuan, up 8 yuan. The PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. Some plants had maintenance or increased production. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. As of November 7, social inventories (excluding credit warehouse receipts) were 222.7 tons, up 2 tons. The spot processing fee was up 15 yuan to 180 yuan, and the futures processing fee was down 4 yuan to 230 yuan [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 contract fell 31 yuan to 3907 yuan. The East China spot price was down 28 yuan to 3952 yuan. The basis was 30 yuan, down 12 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan, down 5 yuan. The supply - side operating rate was 71.6%, down 0.9%. Some plants had production adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. The expected import volume was 11.1 tons, and the export volume from East China on November 17 was 0.4 tons. Port inventories were 73.2 tons, up 7.1 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 785 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production was - 614 yuan, and coal - based production was 150 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 735 dollars, and the price of steam coal in Yulin decreased to 650 yuan [29].

双胶纸期货上市的影响、机遇和风险 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 高琳琳 国 泰 君 安 期 货 首 席 分 析 师 投 资 咨 询 从 业 证 书 号 ： Z 0 0 0 2 3 3 2 石 忆 宁 国 泰 君 安 期 货 分 析 师 投 资 咨 询 从 业 证 书 号 ： Z 0 0 2 2 5 3 3 日期： 2025 年 1 1 月 01 双胶纸期货介绍 | 期货基本概念 | | | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | | | 期货的基本概念 | | | 期货的英文为"Futures"，即"未来"的意思。 | | | 期货，通常指的是期货合约，是由期货交易所统一制 | | | 定的、在将来某一特定时间和地点交割一定数量标的 | | | 物的标准化合约。 | | | 举例：上海期货交易所上市的双胶纸期货合约op2601，该合 | | | 约在2026年1月到期，上期所的合约表和规则规定了双胶纸 | | | 的指定交割库、质量要求、交割单位、交割方式。该合约的 | | | 价格代表市场交易者对26年1月双 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures lies in whether the 53 bushels per acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decline, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases claimed by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will fluctuate around the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal will lack a unilateral driving force. The near - term contracts will strengthen due to seasonal de - stocking, while the far - term contracts will be weak due to Brazilian supply pressure, continuing the positive spread logic [1]. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There are additional negotiation expectations between China and Canada, and with the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. Therefore, the inventory of rapeseed meal at coastal and oil mills remains high, and it is considered weak. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on supply - side yield adjustments and demand - side Chinese purchases. The domestic market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Near - term contracts are affected by seasonal de - stocking, and far - term contracts are pressured by Brazilian supply [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will have a weak supply - demand situation in Q4. There are negotiation expectations between China and Canada, and Australian rapeseed arrivals will limit demand growth and increase supply expectations [2]. - **Proximal Trading Logic**: Currently, the supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills is high, and the oil mill crushing volume has slightly increased. The demand is limited, and the warehouse receipt pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal is about to decline, making the near - term narrative dominant [6]. - **Distal Trading Expectations**: The cost of far - month soybeans is high, and import profits are falling, indicating limited far - month purchases. Sino - US trade relations are easing, and the supply gap is expected to narrow. Rapeseed meal supply may improve, and demand is expected to weaken. Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting is progressing well, and future harvest pressure will affect domestic meal prices [17]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: The market will be in a range - bound state. The M2601 contract will fluctuate between 2800 - 3200 [25]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced; consider a covered call strategy with options; hold the previously sold call options for rapeseed meal 2601; for non - holders, avoid excessive short - chasing after a Monday low - opening, and consider high - selling and low - buying or positive spread strategies [25]. - **Basis, Spread and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: For basis strategies, use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk. For spread strategies, reduce positions in M3 - 5 and M1 - 3 spreads. For hedging arbitrage strategies, narrow the spread of soybean and rapeseed meal 2601 at high levels [26]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, and that of rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750 [28]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures; feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures; oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures [28]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB are provided [29]. - **Spreads**: Information on the spreads between different contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal, as well as the basis and spot spreads, is presented [30]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs and pressing profits of US, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are given [31]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The USDA's November report shows a lower US soybean yield and production than previous forecasts. Argentina's soybean planting progress is behind schedule, and the NOPA's October report shows an increase in soybean meal production [33][34]. - **Negative Information**: Brazil's soybean planting progress is fast, and its October exports are higher than last year. The USDA has not resumed the weekly crop growth report due to the government shutdown [35]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream customers continue to purchase on a need - to - use basis [35]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data; Tuesday: Brazil's Secex weekly report; Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position report [42] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures followed the external market, first falling, then rising, and then falling again. The rapeseed meal futures continued to decline due to previous China - Canada negotiations. Key profitable seats in soybean and rapeseed meal reduced short positions and increased long positions, and the market sentiment for soybean meal turned bullish. The 1 - 5 spreads of both soybean and rapeseed meal weakened. The basis of both soybean and rapeseed meal declined, and the spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal narrowed [39][40][44]. - **External Market**: After the USDA report, the prices of both domestic and external markets declined. Then, with the news of Sino - US soybean purchases, US soybeans rebounded, and the domestic market followed. The net long positions of CBOT soybeans returned above the zero - axis [56][60]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The pressing profits in US soybean production areas are weakening due to rising costs, while the monthly pressing volume remains high. The pressing profits in Brazilian and Argentine production areas are also weakening, and the pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed are rising due to falling prices [62]. 4.2 Import - Export Pressing Profit Tracking - After Argentina opened the export window in September, the domestic soybean meal price declined, but the decline was limited due to the lack of negative feedback from domestic purchases. Recently, although the market has rebounded, the pressing profits have not improved. The near - term domestic supply pressure and profit support limit the downward space, while the far - term market may decline after the collapse of Brazilian premium prices. The import of rapeseed has shown pressing profits, but subsequent purchases are expected to be cautious due to margin factors [67]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - For the September new - crop balance sheet, the US soybean production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. The demand for crushing will continue to grow, while the export will be weak. If Sino - US trade resumes, exports may recover. The ending inventory is expected to be moderately tight. The October balance sheet was not released due to the government shutdown, and attention should be paid to the November balance sheet [71]. - Globally, in the 2025/26 soybean balance sheet, the beginning inventory and production are expected to decline, the crushing volume will decrease, the export volume will slightly increase, and the ending inventory will decline [75]. 5.2 Domestic Supply - Side and Deduction - The import of soybeans will gradually decrease in the fourth quarter, and the supply will enter a seasonal de - stocking phase. The import of rapeseed will remain low [77]. 5.3 Domestic Demand - Side and Deduction - The domestic soybean crushing volume will remain high, and the consumption of soybean meal will have limited growth [79]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory - Side and Deduction - The domestic soybean inventory will decline in the fourth quarter and is expected to stabilize and rebound in the first quarter of next year. The soybean meal inventory will also decline and remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to trade in a range, with rebar between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption, and the risk lies in the possible negative feedback from the decline in the profitability of steel enterprises [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, but a structural shortage of deliverable products. The price lacks a strong trend driver. In the short - term, the shipment of iron ore is increasing again, and the output of non - mainstream mines remains high. The iron ore price may be affected by the change in coking coal valuation [20]. - In the short - term, the coal - coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure due to factors such as high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. In the long - term, the coal - coke price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - Ferroalloys are facing high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may shift down due to the impact of energy supply guarantee on coking coal prices, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the upper - middle stream inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - The glass market has weak sales recently, and the high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price and Spread Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and hot - rolled coil 01, 05 contracts changed compared to the previous day. The rebar 01 - 05 and hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions on November 18, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day. The basis of different contracts also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts on November 18, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, 09 contracts increased compared to the previous day, and the basis of different contracts decreased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of November 14, 2025, the daily average iron - water output increased week - on - week, the global and Australian - Brazilian shipments increased, and the 45 - port inventory increased [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Analysis**: The short - term price adjustment is due to high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. The long - term price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the coal - coke futures and spot prices, basis, month - spreads, and other data showed different changes compared to the previous day [32][33][34]. Ferroalloys - **Market Outlook**: Facing high inventory and weak demand, the cost center may shift down, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - **Data of Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: On November 18, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon showed different changes compared to the previous day [43][45]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Priced by cost, without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the soda ash futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day [52]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: Weak sales recently, high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. - **Price and Sales Data**: On November 18, 2025, the glass futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day. The sales in different regions showed different trends in the recent period [76].

本周燃料油合约整体呈现震荡下跌态势,整体跟随国际原油波 动节奏。主要影响因素为成本端下行和基本面支撑两种力量的博弈。 国际原油价格下行对燃料油单边价格形成压制，但国内燃料油市场 供应偏紧、库存偏低的基本面格局仍为市场提供了一定支撑。 1期货市场 1.1 合约行情 本周燃料油主力合约 FU2601 收于 2622 元/吨,较前一交易周 结算价下跌 73 元/吨，跌幅为 2.71%。本周最高价为 2712 元/吨, 最低价为 2579 元/吨，成交量为 2257056 手，持仓量为 217297 手，增加 14374 手。 图 1：FU 燃油主力合约分时图 数据来源:国金期货博易云 研究品种:燃料油 成文日期：20251117 报告周期:周报 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 然料油期货周报 核心观点： 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 1.2 品种价格 燃料油期货合约价格呈现近高远低的反向市场格局,整体 为近强远弱。FU2601 作为主力 ...