Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally began on September 24, 2024, driven by a combination of monetary, real estate, and capital market policies aimed at combating deflation and boosting domestic demand [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The market has experienced a long adjustment period, with investor sentiment at a low point before the rally commenced [1] - The current rally is supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The chief economist of Guosen Securities, Xun Yugen, believes that the stock market rally is far from over [1] - There is an indication of improvement in the fundamentals of the A-share market, although it is still in a fragmented state [1] Group 3: Sector Performance - The technology sector is showing strong performance, while some cyclical and traditional consumer industries are lagging [1] - Future macroeconomic policies are expected to further enhance the gradual improvement in fundamentals across various sectors [1]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【10月22日钢材市场待宏观破局，钢价或弱势震荡】当前钢材市场处于关键节点，钢价深度回调至年内 低位，触及钢厂成本线，形成安全底部边际。 但需求拖累使库存处于高位，持续压制钢价反弹空间。 市场进入宏观窗口期，"弱现实"与"强预期"反复博弈，宏观政策成破局关键。 目前钢价在低位，虽基 本面承压，但关键宏观事件落地前，向下空间有限，大概率弱势震荡。 若有宏观利好，行情或修复反 弹，反弹高度取决于宏观面表现。 ...

Group 1 - China's GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2023 reached 5.2%, marking an acceleration compared to the previous year, which lays a solid foundation for achieving annual goals [1] - The resilience of China's economy is highlighted by a 4% year-on-year increase in goods trade imports and exports, showcasing the country's ability to diversify its markets and products [1] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 53.5%, reinforcing its role as the main engine of growth [2] Group 2 - The integration of technology and industry is driving innovation, with significant growth in renewable energy sectors, including a 29.7% increase in wind power generation and a 46.9% increase in lithium-ion battery production for electric vehicles [3] - China's economic contributions to global growth remain significant, with an average contribution rate of around 30% over the past five years [3] - The focus on high-quality development and the effective implementation of policies are expected to sustain economic momentum and support global economic growth [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the steel products market is operating at a low level and faces short - term downward pressure. It also suggests paying attention to macro - policies and downstream demand in the later stage [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Steel Production Data - In September, key steel enterprises produced 62.86 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%, with a daily output of 2.0953 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. They produced 58.43 million tons of pig iron, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%, with a daily output of 1.9476 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% [3] Overseas Trade Frictions - The European Commission issued an anti - dumping affirmative final ruling on steel crawler tracks originating from China, with an anti - dumping duty of 62.5%. Thailand's anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sub - committee issued an anti - circumvention affirmative final ruling on special iron pipes and steel pipes originating from China [3] Real Estate Transaction Data - From October 13th to 19th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6386 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 63.7%. The total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 2.1837 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 70.5% [3] Market Performance - Steel products fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. During the day session, they rose first and then fell, and both varieties closed with a doji star, with little fluctuation. The macro data showed limited improvement in the real estate market, still putting pressure on building materials. Overseas trade frictions also put pressure on the export of steel plates. Attention should be paid to China - US economic and trade consultations and domestic important meetings [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner [2]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to run at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mine - end news [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production and conduct maintenance from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total building steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month [1]. - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, and the daily impact on output during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - Finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - In September, the import volume of bauxite was 15.88 million tons, a 13.2% decrease from the previous period and a 37.5% increase year - on - year. The delivery volume from Guinea decreased by 14.9% to 10.49 million tons in September due to the impact of the rainy season on mining and shipping in July and August [2]. - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises was stable at 68%, but due to the off - season expectation and Trump's tariff, the procurement was cautious, and the operating rate is expected to decline gradually. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry was 64%, and it may continue to be weak and stable in the short term. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry decreased slightly to 53.5%, and it is expected to be weak and stable in the short term [2]. - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [2]. Market Outlook - The finished products are expected to operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [2]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Repo rates are rising, and Treasury futures prices are fluctuating, with a neutral outlook for the 2512 contract. Attention should be paid to the decline in the basis of the 2512 contract. There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4]. - Affected by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts and increasing global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; China's monthly PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a 3.42 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.79% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a 0.40% decrease and a - 4.55% change rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a 0.40% increase and a 0.81% growth rate [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.94, with a 0.35 increase and a 0.36% growth rate; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1191, with a 0.003 decrease and a - 0.04% change rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.56% growth rate; DR007 is 1.44, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.70% growth rate; R007 is 1.53, with a 0.02 increase and a 1.49% growth rate; The 3 - month yield of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit is 1.60, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.31% growth rate; The 1 - year AA - AAA credit spread is 0.09, with a 0.00 increase and a 0.31% growth rate [9]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On October 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.37 yuan, 105.72 yuan, 108.15 yuan, and 115.59 yuan respectively, with daily changes of 0.04%, 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.16% [2]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL is - 0.018 yuan, - 0.005 yuan, - 0.034 yuan, and - 0.240 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Fiscal data shows "moderate revenue recovery and strong expenditure expansion." In the first three quarters, general public budget revenue increased slightly by 0.5% year - on - year, relying on the recovery of individual income tax, value - added tax, and stamp duty, but its sustainability remains to be seen. Expenditure continued to increase, with high growth rates in social security, education, and debt interest payments, providing stable support for aggregate demand. Government - managed fund budget revenue is still weak, and the decline in land sales has narrowed but the recovery is limited, while fund expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year, indicating that the fiscal side is hedging against economic downward pressure by accelerating the expenditure pace [2]. - On October 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tendering [2]. - The main - term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.317%, 1.426%, 1.504%, and 1.557% respectively, and the repo rates have recently rebounded [2]. 4. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread data through multiple figures, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds, and the cross - variety spread of futures [27][31][32]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract through figures [34][37][45]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract through figures [47][51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract through figures [54][55]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract through figures [61][63][67].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coking coal market is currently in a state of weak supply-demand balance, with prices showing a fluctuating trend influenced by multiple factors including fundamentals, policy disturbances, and macro sentiment [1] Supply Side - The recovery pace of coking coal supply is stable, with domestic coal mines gradually returning to normal production levels after the National Day holiday [2] - Import channels have resumed normal operations, with significant increases in Mongolian coal imports expected due to a trial of full-load transportation mode [2] - The international forward market remains stable, with Australian premium coking coal prices holding at $205.5 per ton, while Russian coal markets are stable with active inquiries but a cautious outlook [2] Demand Side - Overall, there is still support from rigid demand, but the purchasing pace from downstream sectors has slowed [3] - Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel mills remains high at 241.54 million tons, indicating that the rigid demand for coking coal has not completely disappeared [3] - Steel prices are under pressure, which may weaken the overall demand for coking coal [3] Inventory Situation - Upstream coal mine inventories have seen a slight accumulation, but the pressure is not significant, with raw coal inventory at 4.4635 million tons and washed coal inventory at 1.959 million tons [4] - The inventory levels are relatively low compared to the annual average, and the accumulation is attributed to normal purchasing pauses during the holiday rather than weak demand [4] - Downstream sectors are continuing to reduce inventories, which supports coking coal prices [4] External Factors - The macro environment is providing support for the market, with coal and coke prices continuing to show a fluctuating trend without significant volatility [5] - The recovery of domestic coal production to pre-holiday levels is limited in further incremental space, and regulatory policies may constrain supply [5] - The short-term supply pressure is manageable, with high pig iron production levels maintaining some rigid demand for coking coal [5]

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices, indicating steady economic performance and positive outcomes in high-quality development [1] Economic Performance - In the first quarter, GDP grew by 5.4%, in the second quarter by 5.2%, and in the third quarter by 4.8%. Despite a 0.4 percentage point decline in the third quarter compared to the second, this growth rate remains significantly higher than that of most major economies [2] - The fundamentals of the Chinese economy are strong, with stable operational support remaining unchanged [2] Sectoral Contributions - Agricultural value added increased by 3.6%, industrial value added grew by 6.2%, and service sector value added rose by 5.4% in the first three quarters [5] - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 36,587.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, while manufacturing investment increased by 4.0% [5] - The total value of goods imports and exports reached 33,607.8 billion yuan, also reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [5] Investment and Consumption - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 53.5%, indicating a significant impact on overall economic performance [5] - Manufacturing innovation is evident, and policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption are showing positive results [5] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will remain resilient in the fourth quarter, with consumer demand expected to recover steadily [7] - New policy financial tools and fiscal measures are anticipated to support local governments in achieving economic and social development goals [7] - The government aims to implement more proactive macro policies to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, promoting sustained and healthy economic development [7]

成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：铁矿石延续弱势 关注宏观政策增量 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 10 月 21 日 逻辑：昨日碳元素因供给端扰动，价格相对强势，成材价格短期有所企稳但整体价格重心 下移，铁矿石价格相对弱势，创出 7 月份高点以来新低。整体看，黑色系情绪依然偏弱，短期 关注国内宏观政策增量。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：外矿发运环比小幅回升，其中澳洲力拓、FMG 发运回升相对显著，巴西发运相对 平稳。到港量创今年来新高后回归中位水平，整体看，供给端支撑力度仍持续减弱 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidated manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, with inventory slightly decreasing [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - The US government shutdown has lasted 20 days, delaying key economic data release and creating a data vacuum before the Fed's policy meeting [2] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level. Shanxi reduced production by 400,000 tons due to rainy - season supply issues, but there is still an oversupply. Some high - cost enterprises are in the red, but the industry as a whole still has a profit margin. The spot market is in a state of loose supply, and the alumina price is expected to remain weak [3] - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, cable, and profile have different operating rate trends and face various challenges [3] - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [3]