Group 1: Economic Policies and Measures - Relevant departments are accelerating the introduction of measures to stabilize employment and the economy, with most policies expected to be implemented by the end of June [1] - The plan includes the issuance of a project list for the "two重" construction and central budget investment by the end of June 2025, along with the establishment of new policy financial tools to address capital shortages for project construction [1] - The new policy financial tools are seen as an innovative upgrade to traditional policy financial instruments, aimed at providing capital support for "two重" projects through market-oriented financing [1] Group 2: Employment Support and Trade Stability - A combination of policies will be introduced to support employment, including increased support for job expansion, employment subsidies for individuals, and higher unemployment insurance for affected enterprises [2] - To stabilize foreign trade, there will be increased financial support to lower domestic sales costs for foreign trade enterprises, and efforts will be made to include more sectors in the "trade-in" support program [2] - Continuous policy research and preparation will be conducted to ensure timely implementation of necessary measures for stabilizing employment and the economy [2] Group 3: Macro Policy and Economic Outlook - The implementation of more proactive macro policies indicates a significant push for domestic demand expansion, focusing on boosting consumption, accelerating infrastructure investment, and stabilizing the real estate market [3] - Domestic macro policies are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing economic operations, countering the slowdown in external demand [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the reallocation of macro policies is expected to enhance the demand for rebar in August, leading to a potential upward trend in prices [1] - The demand side is supported by accelerated implementation of macro policies and faster issuance of local special bonds, which boosts infrastructure investment and rebar demand [1] - The real estate sector shows signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in new construction area, reducing the negative impact on rebar demand [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, improved profits for both long and short process steel mills are expected to increase production willingness, leading to a slight recovery in rebar output [1] - However, due to "anti-involution" policies and calls for industry self-discipline, production levels are anticipated to remain stable and operate at low levels [1] - Inventory levels are currently low, with downstream demand in the off-season, but the supply is also at a low level, resulting in a basic balance between supply and demand and a gradual reduction in inventory [1]

Economic Overview - China's economy maintained a stable operation in the first half of the year, achieving a growth rate of 5.3% [1] - The macroeconomic outlook for the second half of the year is under close scrutiny, with expectations for continued support from macro policies [1] Industrial Growth - The average forecast for July's industrial added value year-on-year growth is 6.0%, despite expected slowdowns due to seasonal factors and external pressures [2] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1% [2] - Despite challenges, external demand remains resilient, supporting production activities [2] Consumer Spending - The average forecast for July's retail sales year-on-year growth is 4.9%, slightly above the previous month's figure [3] - The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 3 trillion yuan in sales generated since its implementation [3] - High-frequency data indicates a strong performance in certain sectors, such as passenger vehicle retail and major home appliances [3] Automotive Industry - In July, China's automotive production and sales reached 2.591 million units and 2.593 million units, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 14.7% [4] - The automotive market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown, but the "trade-in" policy continues to have a positive impact [4] Infrastructure Investment - The average forecast for July's fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is 2.8%, remaining stable compared to the previous month [5] - Infrastructure investment is supported by government policies and ongoing projects, despite some slowdowns due to adverse weather conditions [5] - Sales of excavators in July increased by 25.2% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the engineering machinery sector [5][6] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market is facing challenges, with significant declines in new housing transaction volumes in major cities [6] - The construction sector is expected to see a continued slowdown, influenced by falling cement prices and adverse weather [6]

Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend in the second half of the year, following a 5.3% growth in the first half [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release July macroeconomic data on August 15, with expectations of a slowdown in industrial production growth due to seasonal factors and external disturbances [1] Industrial Growth - The average forecast for July industrial added value year-on-year growth is 6.0%, despite a decline in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to 49.3% [2] - External demand remains resilient, with key indicators such as coal consumption and railway freight volume showing active production [2] Consumer Spending - The average forecast for July retail sales year-on-year growth is 4.9%, slightly higher than the previous month's 4.8% [3] - The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 3 trillion yuan in related sales since its implementation [4] Fixed Asset Investment - The average forecast for July fixed asset investment growth is 2.8%, consistent with the previous month [5] - Infrastructure investment remains supported by government policies, despite external pressures and a decline in corporate profits [5] Real Estate Investment - High-frequency data indicates a significant decline in new home transaction volumes in major cities, with expectations of an expanded decline in real estate development investment growth [6] - The land transaction area in major cities has also shown a negative trend, indicating a weakening market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Export Surpasses Expectations, Prices Linger at Low Levels, Treasury Bond Futures May Continue to Fluctuate" - Report Date: August 9, 2025 - Researcher: Liu Yang - Contact Information: liuyang18036@greendh.com - Futures Qualification Certificate Number: F3063825 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0016580 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The central government emphasizes continuous and timely efforts in macro - policies, with more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The 7 - month export growth is better than expected, but likely to slow down. July's CPI is flat and PPI is down, with overall prices at a low level. Residents tend to save more. The stock market's changes will affect the bond market, and treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short - term, with a suggestion to consider buying on dips [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose slightly. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 0.19%, the 10 - year rose 0.18%, the 5 - year rose 0.10%, and the 2 - year rose 0.03% [5]. - As of August 8, compared with August 1, the 2 - year and 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 3BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively, while the 30 - year yield increased by 1BP [7]. 3.2 Foreign Trade Data - In July, China's exports in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, better than the expected 5.8%, and imports increased by 4.1%, better than the expected 0.3%. The trade surplus was $98.24 billion. From January to July, exports increased by 6.1% year - on - year [10]. - In July, exports to ASEAN increased by 16.6%, to the EU by 9.2%, and to the US decreased by 21.7%. Exports to countries and regions outside the top five continued to grow at a high rate [12][15]. 3.3 Price Data - In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, better than the expected - 0.1%, and rose 0.4% month - on - month. Food prices decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while non - food prices increased [18][20]. - In July, PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.4%, and decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. Production and living material prices both decreased [26][28]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index continued to decline slightly this week after reaching a high on July 25 [31]. 3.4 Economic Survey Data - In the second - quarter urban depositor survey, the future income confidence index and employment expectation index both declined compared with the first quarter [33]. - In the second - quarter survey, the proportion of residents inclined to "more savings" increased, while those inclined to "more consumption" decreased [35]. 3.5 Capital Market Data - After the month - end, this week's capital interest rates remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was between 1.31% - 1.32%, DR007 was 1.45%, and the one - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate was 1.63%, lower than last week [38]. 3.6 Market Logic and Trading Strategy - **Market Logic**: The central government emphasizes policy efforts, the 7 - month export is better than expected but likely to slow, prices are low, and residents tend to save more. The stock market affects the bond market, and treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations [41].

Group 1 - In July, China's consumer price index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating marginal improvement in price trends [1][4] - The average CPI for January to July decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year, while the producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the first narrowing of the decline since March [1][4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, continuing to expand for three consecutive months, reaching the highest level since March 2024 [4][10] Group 2 - The improvement in price trends is attributed to rising prices in the service and industrial consumer goods sectors, alongside a narrowing decline in PPI due to enhanced market competition and regulatory measures against disorderly competition [4][6] - The government has emphasized the need to address low-price competition and improve product quality, with various departments implementing measures to support this initiative [6][7] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to reshape supply-demand structures, particularly in overcapacity industries, potentially leading to a more reasonable price recovery [10][11] Group 3 - The effectiveness of the "anti-involution" measures in sustaining price recovery remains uncertain, as it depends on the execution of policies and the ability to stimulate domestic demand [11][12] - Long-term price trends will be influenced by supply-demand relationships, with a focus on avoiding mere supply reduction without addressing demand expansion [14] - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies is anticipated to accelerate domestic demand recovery, which could counteract external deflationary pressures and support a slight rebound in domestic prices [15]

国家统计局副局长盛来运答记者问时表示，上半年经济稳中有进的发展态势和成效，为完成全年目标打 下了较好基础。上半年，中国经济顶住压力、稳定增长，保持稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势，充分展 示了中国经济的抗压能力和强大韧性，这种发展态势会得以保持。 上半年经济平稳向好 对于上半年我国经济走势，北京市社会科学院副研究员王鹏在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时表示，今 年上半年，我国经济平稳向好，结构优化且新动能涌现。消费成拉动经济关键，投资助力产业升级与稳 定，净出口展现韧性。 从上半年消费、投资、出口"三驾马车"来看：消费需求较快增长，二季度最终消费支出对经济增长贡献 率为52.3%，拉动GDP增长2.7个百分点。 中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 上半年我国经济表现好于市场预期。国家统计局近日发布的数据显示，上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，较 2024年全年加快0.3个百分点，为完成全年预期目标打下了扎实基础。 不仅如此，各地因地制宜发展新质生产力，加大技术创新和产业创新融合发展力度，新产业、新技术、 新业态继续保持较快发展。上半年，高技术产业增加值同比增长9.5%。 受访业界专家认为，上半年面对国际形势急剧变化、外部压力明显 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The industry is still in adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Production Data**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union, the output of rebar increased by 101200 tons to 2.2118 million tons, the output of hot-rolled coil decreased by 79000 tons to 3.1489 million tons, and the total output of the five major steel products increased by 17900 tons to 8.6921 million tons [3] - **Inventory Data**: The total inventory of rebar increased by 103900 tons to 5.5668 million tons, the total inventory of hot-rolled coil increased by 86800 tons to 3.5663 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 234700 tons to 13.7536 million tons [3] - **Apparent Demand Data**: The apparent demand for rebar increased by 73800 tons to 2.1079 million tons, the apparent demand for hot-rolled coil decreased by 137900 tons to 3.0621 million tons, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 62900 tons to 8.4574 million tons [3] - **Market Performance**: The finished steel rose first and then fell yesterday The increase in raw material prices supports steel prices from the cost side, and the anti-involution at the macro level still disturbs the black series The fundamentals are bearish mainly due to weak downstream demand that is difficult to reverse in the short term [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies, supply-side production cuts, and downstream demand [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The market has returned to the fundamental verification stage. China's July import and export data exceeded expectations, but the export is still under pressure due to the upcoming "reciprocal tariff 2.0", and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations needs to be continuously monitored. The US has imposed a series of new tariffs, and Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, which will have a certain impact on the market. The UK central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there are internal differences due to the increasing inflation risk. Putin said that he may meet with Trump in the UAE [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting on July 30 deployed the economic work for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for continuous and timely strengthening of macro policies and more moderate "anti-involution" policies. China's official manufacturing PMI in July fell to 49.3, and the new order index fell to 49.4, while the non-manufacturing sector remained in expansion. China's foreign exchange reserves in July decreased by 0.76% month-on-month, and the central bank increased its gold holdings for the ninth consecutive month. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year in US dollars, mainly supported by the low base last year and the "rush to export" effect under tariff uncertainty. Imports increased by 4.1%, with significant growth in the imports of integrated circuits, copper ore concentrates, and high-tech products [1] Impact of "Reciprocal Tariffs" - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset the "reciprocal tariff" rate standards for some countries. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7. Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and the EU's chip exports to the US are subject to a 15% tariff cap. The US economic data in July was not as expected, and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy continued to drag down business activities. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year [2] Commodity Segments - Domestically, the black and new energy metal sectors are the most sensitive to the supply side. Overseas, the energy and non-ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies should be closely monitored. The supply constraints in the non-ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and the impact of tariff implementation on demand expectations needs to be followed. In the short term, the geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, and the medium-term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ accelerated production increase, agreeing to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" potential of methanol, PVC, caustic soda, urea and other products is also worthy of attention. There is no short-term weather disturbance in agricultural products, and the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [3] Key News - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased by $25.2 billion to $3.2922 trillion compared with the end of June, a decrease of 0.76%. China's gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces to 73.96 million ounces in July, the ninth consecutive month of increase. China's exports in July increased by 8% year-on-year in RMB and 7.2% in US dollars, while imports increased by 4.8% in RMB and 4.1% in US dollars. Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and will sign an executive order to allow 401K accounts to invest in alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies and private equity funds. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Putin said he may meet with Trump in the UAE [5]