Core Viewpoint - The silver price is experiencing short-term pressure due to strong U.S. economic data supporting the Federal Reserve's decision to delay interest rate cuts, but long-term inflationary pressures from tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support silver prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The latest paper silver price is trading at 8.793 yuan per gram, with a slight increase of 0.27% [1]. - Tariff policy uncertainties are bolstering silver's safe-haven appeal, despite short-term pressure from rising dollar and yields [2]. - The escalating trade tensions may heighten market risk aversion, potentially leading to a rebound in paper silver prices [2]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The EU is urged to act swiftly and firmly in U.S. tariff negotiations, with a deadline set for August 1, after which a 30% tariff on EU goods may be imposed [2]. - Japan is in urgent talks with the U.S. to avoid a 25% tariff, which will take effect if no agreement is reached by August 1 [2]. - Recent data shows that June import prices rose only 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%, indicating that foreign exporters have not fully absorbed tariff costs [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Paper silver opened at 8.719, reached a high of 8.782, and closed at 8.769, forming a long lower shadow hammer pattern [3]. - Resistance levels for paper silver are noted at 8.82-8.83, while support is seen at 8.60-8.70 [3].

7月17日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价整体持稳，老庙、老凤祥、周生生这3家金店金价继续波动中。其中，周生 生黄金上涨6元/克，报价1009元/克，为今日最高价金店。今日的最低价金店还是报价969元/克的上海中国黄金。今日最高与 最低金店间价差扩大至40元/克。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年7月17日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1002 | 元/克 | 3 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | म | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | 47 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 988 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1005 | 元/克 | 1 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | দ | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1009 | 元/克 | 6 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Amid the approaching end of the tariff negotiation period, the Trump administration's tariff announcements have reignited market risk aversion, and dovish remarks from Fed officials have raised expectations of a September rate cut, supporting precious metals. Despite short - term market sentiment fluctuations, the substantial increase in US tariffs, along with potential deepening of debt and deficit issues, suggest that precious metals will maintain a high - level oscillatory trend [3][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - During the week, the US dollar index rebounded slightly from the bottom, while precious metals showed strong resilience. London gold traded between $3280 - $3370 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 0.53%. London silver broke through the previous high set in mid - June, reaching a new high since 2012 at $38.53, trading between $36 - $38.5, with a weekly gain of 4%. Affected by external markets and exchange rates, Shanghai gold traded between 765 - 777 yuan, with a weekly loss of 0.45%, and Shanghai silver traded between 8840 - 9120 yuan, with a weekly gain of 1.36% [3]. - The main trading theme this week was US - centric tariff policies. The 3 - month reciprocal tariff negotiation period is almost over, and the Trump administration has announced a 50% tariff on copper and a 30% tariff on Mexico, the EU, etc. The signing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill is likely to deepen US debt and deficit problems, reigniting market risk aversion. Additionally, dovish remarks from Fed officials have slightly increased market expectations of a September rate cut, allowing silver prices to break through [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Buy gold on dips and hold long silver positions based on the 5 - day moving average. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [9]. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking US Economy - GDP Slowdown and Deteriorating Consumption Expectations - In 2024, the annual GDP reached 2.8%, better than expected. The consumption sector, accounting for two - thirds of the economy, continuously drove GDP growth, with the service industry making the most significant positive contribution, and the investment sector also supporting the economy [20]. - In Q1 2025, the economy slowed down due to tariff factors, recording - 0.3%, worse than the expected - 0.2%, mainly reflecting increased imports and reduced government spending (an 8% decline in defense spending) [21]. - Recent data shows that US residents are more pessimistic about the future economy. The US retail sales month - on - month rate in May was - 0.9%, worse than the expected - 0.1%. The preliminary one - year inflation rate expectation in June was 5.1%, lower than the expected 6.4%, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in June was 60.5, better than the expected 53.5 [22][23]. US Economy - Divergence of Two PMI Indicators in a Turbulent Background - The final Markit manufacturing PMI in the US in June was 52, slightly lower than the expected 52.2. The S&P Global services PMI was 53.7, better than the expected 53.1. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8, better than the expected 50.5, and the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49 [25]. US Economy - Employment - The seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in June were 147,000, better than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The average hourly wage annual rate was 3.7%, slightly lower than the expected 3.9%. Employment data has shown that the US job market is temporarily stable, and the unexpected decline in the unemployment rate has slightly adjusted market expectations of a Fed rate cut [33]. Macroeconomic Factors - Inflation - The US unadjusted CPI annual rate in May was 2.4%, slightly lower than the expected 2.5%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.8%, slightly lower than the expected 2.9%. The seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%, and the seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%. This set of CPI data showed a moderate decline, approaching the Fed's target, but the market still worried about the impact of tariff frictions, and expectations of a Fed rate cut remained stable after the data release [39]. Chapter 3: Precious Metal Fundamental Data Tracking ETF and CFTC Positions No specific analysis of the data in the text, only the presentation of relevant charts. Gold - Supply and Demand - In 2024, the total global gold supply increased slightly by 1% year - on - year to 4974 tons, with mine production at 3661 tons (basically flat year - on - year) and recycled gold at 1370 tons (up 11% year - on - year). The total gold demand was 4554 tons, up 1% year - on - year, with investment demand growing by 25% to 1180 tons, a four - year high. Gold consumption in technology increased by 21 tons (+7%), while gold jewelry consumption hit a record low at 1877 tons, down 9% year - on - year. Global central banks bought 1044.6 tons of gold in 2024, exceeding 1000 tons for the third consecutive year [45]. - For 2025, the World Gold Council predicts that gold supply will increase again. Investment in gold ETFs, over - the - counter trading, and futures will be favored. Central banks may buy over 1000 tons of gold again. Gold jewelry demand may be pressured, while technology - related gold demand should remain stable [45]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Since 2022, global central banks have been on a gold - buying spree, with purchases reaching 1082 tons in 2022, 1037 tons in 2023, and 1045 tons in 2024. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India have been active buyers [54]. - In Q3 2024, central bank gold - buying activities slowed down to 186 tons, but in Q4, global central banks bought 333 tons of gold, a 54% year - on - year and 79% quarter - on - quarter increase. China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for five consecutive months since November 2024 [57]. Silver - Global Supply and Demand Balance - In 2024, the global silver supply was 31573 tons, up 2% year - on - year, and the global demand was 36208 tons, down 3% from the previous year. The demand mainly included 21166 tons of industrial silver (6146 tons of photovoltaic silver), 6491 tons of silver jewelry, 1686 tons of silverware, and 5938 tons of investment. The supply - demand gap was 4634 tons [59]. - For 2025, the World Silver Association expects the supply to continue growing by 2% to 32055 tons. Industrial silver demand is expected to change little, with photovoltaic silver remaining at around 6000 tons. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow to 3658 tons [59]. Silver Inventory - The total visible silver inventory of major global exchanges, including LBMA, Comex, SHFE, and SGE, has rebounded from the historical low. Traders are moving silver from London due to concerns about US tariffs on silver [65].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The data reflects China's economic resilience, the market risk - aversion sentiment eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; the market interest rate consolidates, the Treasury bond rebounds slightly, and it is recommended to hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2] - Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished steel may shrink, and attention should be paid to the implementation of specific policy documents; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has spurred long - position funds, and the price increase of coke by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, leading to a sharp rise in the black sector [3] - Trump's latest tariff measures have escalated the trade war, the market risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded to boost the gold price; the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has decreased, and attention should be paid to this week's CPI data; it is expected that gold will maintain a high - level shock [4] - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply center will move down, the supply pressure will ease, the average daily outbound volume will remain above 60,000 cubic meters, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on log prices [5] - The production of natural rubber in domestic and foreign producing areas is steadily increasing, and there is still room for the raw material price to decline; the port inventory remains at a high level, and the weak fundamentals cannot support the continuous rise of rubber prices [6] - The USDA monthly report on US soybeans has a negative impact, the growth of US soybeans is good, and South American soybeans have a bumper harvest and continuous exports; about 10 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in July, the oil mill operating rate remains high, the oil mill pick - up volume has declined, the soybean meal inventory has continued to rise, and soybean meal will fluctuate weakly [7] - The possibility of new US sanctions supports oil prices, PX continues to destock and fluctuates with oil prices; the supply - demand expectation of PTA weakens and it will follow cost fluctuations in the short term; the raw materials have recovered, but the supply - demand of MEG weakens, and the upside space of the market is restricted [8] - The market supply - demand stalemate is obvious. Farmers in northern regions cut prices for promotion due to the pressure of selling livestock, while southern regions stabilize the market by adjusting the supply rhythm; the weak consumer demand restricts price increases, and the regional price difference gradually widens; it is expected that domestic hog prices will maintain small - scale fluctuations [9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock and Bond - Data shows China's economic resilience, market risk - aversion sentiment eases, hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rate consolidates, Treasury bond rebounds slightly, hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2] Black - "Anti - involution" may shrink finished steel supply, pay attention to policy implementation; old - city renovation expectation spurs long - position funds, coke price increase by coking plants will be implemented this week, leading to a sharp rise in the black sector [3] Gold - Trump's tariff measures escalate trade war, market risk - aversion boosts gold price; Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation decreases, pay attention to CPI data, gold to maintain high - level shock [4] Logs - Spot log price is stable, expected arrival volume to decrease, supply pressure eases, average daily outbound volume above 60,000 cubic meters, pay attention to futures delivery impact [5] Natural Rubber - Production in domestic and foreign areas increases, raw material price may decline, port inventory is high, weak fundamentals can't support price rise [6] Soybeans and Soybean Meal - USDA report on US soybeans is negative, US soybeans grow well, South American soybeans export continuously; about 10 million tons of imported soybeans in July, oil mill operating rate high, pick - up volume down, soybean meal inventory up, soybean meal to fluctuate weakly [7] Oil - Related Chemicals - US sanctions may support oil prices, PX destocks with oil price fluctuations; PTA supply - demand weakens, follows cost in short term; MEG supply - demand weakens, upside space restricted [8] Hogs - Market supply - demand stalemate, northern farmers cut prices, southern regions adjust supply, weak consumer demand restricts price, hog prices to fluctuate slightly [9]

Group 1 - The market's risk aversion has increased due to Trump's new tariff policies and expectations of interest rate cuts from Federal Reserve officials, which has positively impacted gold prices [2] - Gold prices broke through the resistance level around 3330 and reached a high of 3373, with a focus on the pressure levels around 3390/95 and support around 3345/50 [2] - Caution is advised as any successful negotiations before the August 1 deadline could lead to a rapid decline in gold prices [2] Group 2 - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to new sanctions from the U.S. against Russia, creating short-term trading opportunities in the oil market [4] - After a drop to 66.3, oil prices rebounded but have not yet broken through the strong resistance at 69, indicating uncertainty in price continuation [4] - High U.S. oil inventories and stable global supply are expected to lead to a continued imbalance in supply and demand, suggesting a bearish outlook for oil prices [4] Group 3 - For gold, a buying strategy is suggested around 3349 with a stop loss at 3342 and a target of 3365/70, while a selling strategy is recommended around 3388 with a stop loss at 3396 [5] - For oil, a selling strategy is advised around 68.8 with a stop loss at 69.6 and a target of 67/66 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the EU by President Trump has led to increased market pressure and heightened risk aversion, resulting in declines in U.S. stock futures and slight increases in gold, the dollar, and Bitcoin [1][11]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures opened lower, with the S&P 500 futures down by 0.4% [1]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 200.50 points, or 0.45%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also experienced declines of 0.47% and 0.46%, respectively [2]. - Asian markets reacted with the Nikkei 225 index down 0.3% and the South Korean KOSPI remaining flat [3]. Commodity and Currency Movements - Gold prices increased by 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains, although the increase has moderated [3]. - The U.S. dollar and Japanese yen saw slight increases against major currencies [6]. - Bitcoin experienced a temporary rise of about 1% before retreating from its recent highs [9]. Economic Context - Analysts warn that the 30% tariff is punitive and may have a more significant impact on the EU than on the U.S. itself [11]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including China's Q2 GDP and U.S. June CPI, are expected to be focal points for the market [12]. - The recent tariff announcement disrupts the previously optimistic sentiment surrounding trade negotiations [14]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market's resilience is being tested as Trump's trade threats complicate accurate pricing in financial markets [13]. - Some analysts believe that the market may overlook the trade conflict until tariffs are fully implemented, drawing lessons from past experiences [14]. - Discussions around potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership due to Trump's criticisms of Powell add further uncertainty to the market [15].

Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a rise followed by a decline, primarily influenced by policy changes and the low probability of interest rate cuts in July, alongside the announcement of high tariffs on copper by the U.S., leading to increased market risk aversion [1] - The short-term forecast for copper prices indicates a weak trend, with spot prices expected to fluctuate between 77,500-79,500 CNY/ton and LME copper between 9,450-9,850 USD/ton [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - Domestic aluminum prices initially fell before rebounding, with an average price of 20,696 CNY, reflecting a decrease of 0.61% [1] - The market is influenced by macroeconomic disturbances, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and adjustments in tariff policies, leading to fluctuations in demand and inventory levels [1] - The outlook for aluminum prices suggests continued high-range fluctuations, with an average price expected around 20,650 CNY [1] Group 3: Lead Market - Lead prices showed a stable range-bound movement with an average price of 16,950 CNY, slightly down by 0.06% [1] - The market lacks upward momentum for lead prices, although cost support limits downward movement, indicating a continuation of range-bound trading [1] - The short-term forecast for lead prices suggests a focus on the range of 16,800-17,100 CNY for spot prices [1] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc market sentiment is pessimistic due to tariffs and seasonal factors, with expectations of a slight decline in prices [2] - Despite a relaxed supply outlook due to global zinc mine production increases, relatively low inventory levels provide some price support [2] - The anticipated range for next week's zinc prices is between 21,800-22,500 CNY [2] Group 5: Tin Market - Tin prices are experiencing a downward trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and ongoing tariff disturbances, leading to increased market risk aversion [2] - Supply remains tight, but recent price declines have prompted downstream purchasing activity, indicating a potential for recovery in transactions [2] - The expected price range for tin next week is between 258,000-270,000 CNY, with a focus on macroeconomic developments and consumption trends [2] Group 6: Nickel Market - Nickel prices are on a downward trend, with an average price of 121,775 CNY, down by 710 CNY or 0.58% [3] - The market sentiment is bearish, influenced by falling nickel-iron prices and a lack of significant demand improvement [3] - The forecast for nickel prices suggests a potential rebound, with a trading range expected between 118,000-123,000 CNY [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold continues to rise due to heightened market risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Concerns over President Trump's recent tariff announcements have increased market uncertainty, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Trump's proposals include new tariffs on imports from Canada, Brazil, and copper, which have contributed to the rising demand for gold [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Market expectations for a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve are supporting investor demand for gold [1] - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting indicate that only a few officials expect no interest rate cuts this year, further bolstering gold's appeal [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of tariffs by Trump has reignited market risk aversion, leading to a surge in gold prices approaching key resistance levels, raising questions about potential short-term reversals [1] Group 1 - Trump's tariff statement has triggered renewed risk aversion in the market [1] - Gold prices are nearing critical resistance levels, indicating potential volatility [1] - There is speculation about whether the market will experience another short-term reversal [1]

Macro News - The main gold futures price in Shanghai reported at 774.36 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.41%. The opening price was 774.6 CNY per gram, with a high of 775.46 CNY and a low of 770.46 CNY [1] - Recent developments indicate that tariff negotiations between the US and Europe are accelerating, with the automotive sector being a key focus for the EU. Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro may request Trump to lift tariffs on Brazil, while current President Lula has stated that if negotiations with the US fail, reciprocal tariffs will be implemented. Chile is seeking exemption from US copper tariffs, and Vietnam has not agreed to Trump's proposed tariff increase from 11% to 20% [1] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a consideration for interest rate cuts in the fall, with expectations of two cuts this year. There is no evidence of sustained tariff impacts on prices. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July is 92.8%, with a 7.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 29.7%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 65.4% [1] Institutional Views - As the deadline for tariff negotiations approaches, market risk aversion has slightly returned, allowing gold to demonstrate resilience. Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, providing support for precious metals. Overall, despite short-term market fluctuations, the substantial increase in US tariffs is expected to lead to a rebound in inflation and economic slowdown, with the "Big and Beautiful" act likely exacerbating US debt and deficit issues. Therefore, support for precious metals is expected to remain resilient, continuing a high-level oscillation trend [1]