Group 1: Real Estate Tax Revenue - In the first half of 2025, real estate tax revenue reached 261.8 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12% [1] - The overall public budget revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1,155.66 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [1] - The land appreciation tax decreased by 17.6% to 253.5 billion yuan, contrasting with the growth in real estate tax [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Property Market - The Hong Kong government is considering easing restrictions for mainland talents to invest in property, aiming to boost the local economy [2] - McDonald's plans to sell all its properties in Hong Kong, with an estimated market value of nearly 3 billion HKD, while restaurant operations will remain unaffected [3] Group 3: Economic Policies - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stimulate economic growth [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 69 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumer goods replacement programs [5][6] Group 4: Global Business Landscape - The 2025 Fortune Global 500 list revealed that 130 Chinese companies had a total revenue of approximately 10.7 trillion yuan, a decline of about 3% from the previous year [9] - The average profit of Chinese companies on the list was 4.2 billion USD, significantly lower than their American counterparts [9] Group 5: AI and Employment - AI is predicted to create more millionaires in the next five years than the internet did in the past 20 years, highlighting its potential as a technological equalizer [10] - Bill Gates suggested that individuals should embrace AI tools and maintain curiosity to navigate the changing job landscape [11]

Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market continues to show weakness, driven by declining market sentiment and falling coal prices, leading to a significant drop in futures prices [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Glass futures main contract fell by 3.84%, closing at 1102 yuan/ton, with most previous gains being reversed [1] - As of July 31, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises was 59.499 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million weight boxes or 3.87% month-on-month, marking a six-week decline and the lowest level in half a year [2] Group 2: Inventory and Demand - The decline in glass enterprise inventory is primarily due to inventory transfer rather than terminal market consumption, with a reduction in inventory days to 25.5 days, down by 1.1 days [2] - Despite a slight increase in deep processing orders at the end of July, the improvement is limited, and there is a significant amount of glass inventory held by midstream traders [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The core of glass futures price trends in the second half of the year will depend on macroeconomic policies, with expectations of continued active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [2] - Short-term market sentiment is weak, and if social inventory continues to accumulate, glass futures prices may continue to decline [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Chinese government has adopted a more optimistic stance on economic growth and the easing of Sino-U.S. trade tensions, as reflected in the Politburo's recent meeting outcomes [1][2] - The Politburo's attitude towards the economic growth outlook has improved compared to the April meeting, with a notable reduction in concerns regarding the Sino-U.S. trade conflict [2][3] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October will focus on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to shape future economic policies [1] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized the need for detailed implementation of macroeconomic policies, suggesting a shift from introducing new policies to enhancing the effectiveness of existing ones [4] - There is a reduced urgency for large-scale stimulus measures in key sectors, with a focus on developing new growth points in service consumption and supporting goods consumption [5][6] - The government remains cautious regarding local government debt issues, emphasizing the need to prevent the accumulation of new hidden debts while addressing existing debt challenges [6] Group 3 - The tone regarding "anti-involution" actions has softened, with the Politburo opting for a more general approach to addressing disorderly competition rather than specific measures to eliminate outdated capacity [3][4] - The recent trade negotiations between China and the U.S. have led to a more moderate stance on export support, reflecting a decrease in urgency following the potential extension of the tariff truce [6] - The meeting did not mention any plans for additional funding for the vehicle trade-in program, indicating a limited scope for new consumer incentives [5][6]

Group 1: Consumption Policy and Economic Support - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption of old goods, aiming to stimulate consumer potential [1] - As of now, 231 billion yuan has been distributed in three batches, with the remaining funds expected to be released in October [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to accelerate the introduction of policies to boost consumption and improve the consumption environment [1][6] Group 2: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first half of the year, the national general public budget revenue was 1,155.66 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while government fund budget revenue was 194.42 billion yuan, down 2.4% [2] - General public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% to 1,412.71 billion yuan, and government fund budget expenditure surged by 30% to 462.73 billion yuan [2] - Key areas such as social security, education, and environmental protection saw expenditure growth exceeding 5% [2] Group 3: Special Bonds and Debt Management - The issuance of new local government special bonds reached 2.16 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a 45% increase year-on-year [4] - The funds from special bonds are being directed towards project capital, with 191.7 billion yuan allocated, marking a 16% increase [4] - The implementation of debt replacement policies has reduced liquidity pressure and lowered interest expenses for local governments [4] Group 4: Consumer Goods Sales Performance - The "old-for-new" consumption initiative has led to significant sales in various sectors, with total sales reaching 1.6 trillion yuan [5] - Retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment saw year-on-year growth rates of 30.7% and 24.1%, respectively, contributing to a 5% increase in total social retail sales [5] Group 5: Future Consumption Strategies - The Ministry of Finance aims to promote new consumption models in key cities and enhance the consumer experience [6] - The focus is on expanding domestic demand, particularly in consumption, to strengthen the domestic market [6] - The dual-track strategy for consumption stimulation includes fostering new consumption scenarios in potential cities while enhancing global competitiveness through international consumption center city development [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Politburo meeting set a positive tone for the second half of the year, with a clear work stance and a plan to implement an active fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy, continuing to promote policy combinations such as anti - involution and consumption promotion. The Fed maintained interest rates, and Powell's hawkish stance strengthened the US dollar index, pressuring the stock and bond markets. The current market has intensified long - short competition, and the overall adjustment space of stock indices is limited. Investors can choose the right time to layout long positions [1][3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Domestic Policy**: The Politburo meeting in July judged the current economic situation more positively than the April meeting. The steady - growth policy system focuses on releasing consumption potential, standardizing market competition, optimizing industrial structure, and preventing systemic risks, and makes systematic arrangements in areas such as fiscal and monetary policies, real estate, and the capital market [1] - **Overseas Policy**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%, and Powell said it was too early to cut rates in September. The current interest rate level is appropriate considering uncertainties in tariffs and inflation [1] - **Stock Index Trends**: In the spot market, A - share indices diverged, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17% and the ChiNext Index down 1.62%. Industry sectors showed mixed performance. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan. Overseas, US stock indices also had mixed results, with the Dow down 0.38% and the Nasdaq up 0.15% [2] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of IH, IF, and IC declined, and the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - Due to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the Politburo meeting's policy orientation, the market's long - short game is intensifying. The overall adjustment space of stock indices is limited, and investors can choose the right time to layout long positions [3] Macro - economic Charts - Charts show the relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A - share trends and styles [10][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to 3615.72 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.62%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.02%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.21%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.65%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.82% [13] - **Other Indicators**: Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Position and Volume**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the trading volume of IF increased by 40,368 to 138,031, and the open interest increased by 15,183 to 274,703 [15] - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different changes. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 4.24, a change of - 5.02 [41] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM also had various changes. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 10.60, a change of + 0.80 [48]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3615.72, up by 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.77% to 11203.03. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.62% to 2367.68 [2][4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 41.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Steel (+2.05%), Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.84%), Media (+0.99%), Food & Beverage (+0.86%), and Social Services (+0.65%) [3][4] - The sectors that underperformed were Electric Equipment (-2.22%), Computer (-1.59%), Automotive (-1.27%), Defense & Military (-1.06%), and Communication (-0.95%) [3][4] Concept Performance - The leading concept sectors were Combustible Ice (+3.07%), Artemisinin (+2.33%), Dairy (+1.84%), Corn (+1.38%), and Community Group Buying (+1.27%) [3][4] - The lagging concept sectors included Electronic ID (-2.82%), Digital Currency (-2.81%), Mobile Payment (-2.56%), Explosive Concept (-2.27%), and Cross-Border Payment (CIPS) (-2.02%) [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the market is expected to remain supported by positive macroeconomic policies, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [5][6] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. tariff policy changes are highlighted as key factors to watch [6]

Group 1 - The Politburo meeting on July 30 acknowledged the positive economic momentum in the first half of the year while emphasizing the need for bottom-line thinking and proactive fiscal and monetary policies [1][8] - Key areas for risk mitigation identified include real estate, local government debt, and capital markets, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and effective investment [1][3][9] - The meeting highlighted the importance of service consumption and proposed measures to stimulate private investment and expand effective investment in the context of a weak real estate sector [10][11] Group 2 - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October will directly address the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, reflecting the urgency of planning in the current international environment [4][11] - The meeting's content was largely in line with expectations, with limited incremental policies introduced, leading to a muted market reaction [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of utilizing proactive fiscal policies to enhance economic performance and stability, focusing on measures such as issuing long-term special bonds and local government bonds to stimulate growth and improve microeconomic circulation [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The Ministry of Finance plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of ultra-long-term special bonds and local government special bonds to create tangible work volume as soon as possible [1]. - A total of 14.1 trillion yuan was spent from the national general public budget in the first half of the year, ensuring strong support for key areas [1]. - By the end of June, the central government had allocated 9.29 trillion yuan in transfer payments to local governments, with over 90% of central budget investments disbursed [1]. Group 2: Debt Management and Economic Support - The Ministry of Finance has implemented a one-time increase of 6 trillion yuan in the debt limit for 2024, with 3.8 trillion yuan in new replacement bonds issued by the end of June [2]. - The average interest cost of replaced debt has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, significantly alleviating repayment pressure and freeing up more funds for development and public needs [2]. - The focus is on promoting consumption to expand domestic demand, with policies aimed at enhancing service consumption in areas such as elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism [2]. Group 3: Social Spending and Employment Support - In 2025, the budget for education, social security, and employment is set to be nearly 4.5 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 6.1% and 5.9% respectively [3]. - The central government has allocated 1.1 trillion yuan for basic pension insurance subsidies, ensuring timely and full payment of pensions [3]. - Policies to support employment, such as job retention subsidies and tax reductions, are being strengthened to protect key groups in the labor market [3]. Group 4: Fiscal and Tax System Reform - The article discusses the need for a modern budget system and improved budget management practices to enhance local fiscal autonomy [4]. - There are plans to optimize the consumption tax system and improve the value-added tax refund policy to align with new business models [4]. - The Ministry of Finance is promoting zero-based budgeting reforms at the central level to support local governments in similar reforms [4].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need for the Ministry of Finance to align its actions with the central government's analysis of the economic situation, promoting high-quality economic and social development through effective fiscal policies [1][22] - The Ministry plans to implement a childcare subsidy system, gradually promote free preschool education, and provide subsidies for elderly care services for disabled seniors to better meet the service needs of the population [1][23] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance aims to enhance employment stability through policies such as job retention subsidies, tax reductions, and employment support for key groups [1][23] - There is a focus on increasing educational support and improving the quality of educational resources, alongside the implementation of social security, healthcare, and welfare policies to ensure basic living standards for vulnerable groups [1][23] Group 3 - The Ministry is committed to accelerating the issuance and utilization of long-term special bonds and local government bonds to create tangible work output as part of its fiscal policy [1][22] - The article highlights the importance of using fiscal funds to guide and stimulate economic activity, ensuring that various policy effects are continuously released [1][22]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to enhance economic stability and growth through increased fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments [1] - It highlights the importance of issuing and utilizing ultra-long special bonds and local government special bonds to generate tangible work output promptly [1] - The article discusses the role of fiscal funds in guiding and stimulating policy effectiveness, particularly in supporting traditional industry upgrades and the development of emerging industries [1] Group 2 - The article stresses the importance of strengthening social welfare measures to address urgent public concerns, including employment stability and educational support [2] - It advocates for the implementation of a childcare subsidy system and the gradual introduction of free preschool education to better meet the needs of families [2] - The article calls for enhanced social security, healthcare, and assistance policies to ensure basic living standards for vulnerable populations [2] Group 3 - The article outlines the need for continuous reform of the fiscal and tax system to improve governance efficiency and budget management [3] - It suggests optimizing the VAT refund policy and developing tax systems that align with new business models [3] - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing local fiscal autonomy through improved transfer payment systems [3] Group 4 - The article focuses on promoting consumption to expand domestic demand and unlock market potential [4] - It discusses the need to improve policies supporting service consumption in areas such as elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism [4] - The article highlights the importance of coordinating fiscal and financial policies to better meet consumer demand and support the real estate market's sustainable development [4]