——5 月 7 日"一揽子金融政策"点评 证券研究报告|策略点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 8 日 [Table_Title] "一行一局一会"再出组合拳，稳预期稳市场 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 事件：5 月 7 日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证 券监督管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，宣布了一揽子逆周期调 节政策。 · "一行一局一会"再出政策组合拳。本次会议是继去年 924 一揽子金融政策之后，"一行一局一会" 第二次联合召开会议，措施密集且针对性强，央行方面推出"数量+价格+结构"组合,"降准降息"释 放流动性、再贷款工具定向发力提质增效；金融监管总局推出推出稳楼市、稳股市、稳外贸等八项增量 政策；证监会围绕稳定和活跃资本市场强调了三方面的工作重点。我们理解，在一季度经济数据符合预 期的情况下，这些举措是为防范经贸摩擦的潜在冲击做出的前瞻性安排，此次三部门部署的一揽子政策 仅是序幕，政策空间仍有余力，若后续贸易冲击进一步显性化，货币、财政、稳市场等增量政策将以 "择机 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for comprehensive financial support measures to stabilize the market and expectations, particularly focusing on export enterprises, small and micro businesses, and employment groups affected by external demand shocks [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Policies - A total of ten incremental monetary policies and eight incremental financial policies were announced, along with three capital market initiatives [3]. - Two new monetary policy tools were introduced: a 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension re-loan, and a technology innovation bond risk-sharing tool, aimed at mitigating external demand disturbances [3]. - The technology innovation bond risk-sharing tool is designed to enhance the attractiveness and trading activity of technology innovation bonds, addressing the financing difficulties faced by tech enterprises [3]. Group 2: Economic Stability Measures - The article suggests establishing no less than 500 billion yuan in stable foreign trade and export re-loans, specifically targeting labor-intensive export enterprises transitioning to domestic sales or relocating production capacity [1][5]. - The need for coordinated economic cycles is highlighted, as any lag in one sector can negatively impact the overall economic structure, necessitating a "package" approach to policy implementation [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current external environment has led to a significant drop in new export orders, with the PMI reflecting this downturn, indicating a need for timely policy adjustments such as interest rate cuts [2]. - The article notes that the comprehensive tax rate imposed by the U.S. on Chinese exports exceeds 100%, which has a direct impact on China's trade surplus and domestic manufacturing investment [5]. - The relationship between stock market stability and consumer spending is emphasized, as wealth effects from a stable stock market can help boost consumption and mitigate declines in real estate investment [3].

5月7日，"一行一局一会"集体发声，就"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况进行介绍，并发布了一系列金融政策。 这些政策将如何影响资本市场，普通投资者该如何投资？在新京报贝壳财经"'一行一局一会'打出政策组合拳"直播中，中泰证券首席策略分析师徐驰、中国 银河证券首席策略分析师杨超对相关政策进行了解读。 在徐驰看来，此次政策在金融政策领域具有较高规格，延续了2024年9月政治局会议以来"预期管理"思路，政策层对资本市场以及稳定楼市、股市的关注度 再度上升。 杨超则认为，当前"稳市场"最重要的两个问题——房地产和消费内需，这次一揽子政策恰恰抓住了，并将政策向这两方面倾斜，对稳市场形成很强的助力。 谈组合拳 货币政策灵活性和力度增强，降准降息稳市场 当前，受海外关税等问题影响，我国经济增长依然存在压力。今年4月份制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）低于荣枯线，这表明我国制造业的活动有所收缩， 政策上有必要进行支持。同时，外部环境的变化和不确定性增加导致外需疲软，我国需要通过内需动力进行补充。提振内外部需求，降准降息均有必要。 从影响来看，降准降息将利好资本市场。央行的货币政策可为市场提供更多流动性，稳定市场预期，这有 ...

21世纪经济报道 实习生 张长荣 记者 崔文静 北京报道 5月7日上午，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证监会 负责人介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。其中，央行推出包含数量型、价格型政策 及结构性货币政策工具三大类共十项货币政策措施；国家金融监管总局近期将推出八项增量政策；证监 会亦将出台多项资本市场政策。这些政策在稳楼市股市、支持科技创新、促进消费等多个关键领域均作 出相关部署。 多家机构指出，当前政策出台恰逢其时。 开源证券宏观经济首席分析师何宁表示，随着关税扰动初显，政策落地的窗口期已至。在政策效果方 面，据中信建投首席政策分析师胡玉玮测算，本次增量资金释放规模基本可以对冲关税带来的负面冲 击。 万联证券研究所负责人、宏观首席分析师徐飞表示，此次发布会是对中央经济工作会议精神和政治局会 议精神的贯彻落实，强调加大宏观调控强度，推出一揽子货币政策措施，服务实体经济高质量发展，为 推动经济持续回升向好、维护资本市场稳健发展营造良好的货币金融环境。 展望未来政策走向，多位分析师预计将有更多增量政策推出，重点集中在财政发力、扩大内需、稳定外 贸等领域。何 ...

专题：国新办举行新闻发布会 潘功胜、李云泽、吴清重磅发声 对于长端资产来说，目前长端利率的估值偏贵，期限利差处于历史极低水平，已隐含了较多降息预期， 后续长端收益率的进一步下行或面临掣肘：（1）外部经贸环境有所缓和，中美高层开始接触并启动会 谈，贸易局势逐步度过对等关税出台之初预期最差的阶段；（2）政策层对稳市场稳预期的支持强度较 大，有助于提振市场信心和风险偏好；（3）调降政策利率和房贷利率、增设结构性再贷款等宽货币举 措有望对信用扩张构成支撑，促进经济平稳回升。综合而言，在估值偏贵、基本面预期改善和风险偏好 回升的影响下，长端利率的下行空间可能相对有限，或将延续震荡格局。 此外，中国债券市场"科技板"准备工作已基本就绪。央行会同证监会将创设科技创新债券风险分担工 具，提供低成本的再贷款资金购买科技创新债券，促进更多民间资本、政府基金等社会投资进入科技创 新领域，对科创债市场活跃度提升带来的相关投资机会需保持关注。 风险提示：本材料由工银瑞信基金管理有限公司提供，为客户服务资料，并非基金宣传推介资料，观点 仅供参考，具有时效性，不构成投资建议或收益承诺，投资者不应以该等信息取代其独立判断或仅依据 该等信息做 ...

研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2506） | 最新 3816.0 | 环比 数据指标 +37.8↑ IF次主力合约（2505） | 最新 3845.8 | 环比 +34.0↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2506） | 2664.8 | +21.8↑ IH次主力合约（2505） | 2679.0 | +18.4↑ | | | IC主力合约（2506） | 566 ...

Monetary Policy - The recent financial policy package is a response to the April Politburo meeting's directive for a more proactive macroeconomic policy, emphasizing timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to maintain ample liquidity[3] - Starting May 15, the reserve requirement ratio will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately CNY 1 trillion in long-term liquidity, bringing the average reserve requirement ratio to 6.2%[4] - The interest rate for the 7-day reverse repurchase operation will be reduced by 0.1 percentage points, expected to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points[4] Support for Key Sectors - An additional CNY 300 billion will be allocated for technology innovation and technical transformation loans, alongside the establishment of risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds[5] - A CNY 500 billion service consumption and elderly care loan facility will be set up to enhance service consumption supply[5] - The total quota for capital market support tools will be merged to CNY 800 billion, with CNY 3 trillion in stock repurchase loans announced[6] Real Estate Market Stability - The LPR will be lowered by 10 basis points, reducing the 5-year LPR from 4.2% to 3.6%, with a further expected drop to 3.5%[8] - The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate will decrease by 25 basis points, bringing the rate for first-time homebuyers down from 2.85% to 2.6%[8] - The total amount of loans approved for real estate development has reached CNY 6.7 trillion, supporting the construction and delivery of over 16 million residential units[9] Corporate Support Measures - The People's Bank of China has set a total quota of CNY 3 trillion for loans supporting agriculture and small enterprises, enhancing financing for small and medium-sized private enterprises[11] - Regulatory adjustments will be made to improve financing convenience for companies impacted by U.S. tariff policies, including support for direct financing through various instruments[11] - A comprehensive policy package will be introduced to further support financing for small and private enterprises, focusing on increasing supply, reducing costs, improving efficiency, and optimizing the environment[11]

Group 1 - The central bank announced a significant reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points, expected to release 1 trillion yuan in medium to long-term funds, injecting substantial liquidity into the market [3][4] - The interest rate cut will lower the financial burden on businesses and individuals, supporting investment demand and consumption levels [3][4] - The financial regulatory authority introduced eight new policies in the real estate sector, including a reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates, which can save nearly 50,000 yuan in interest for a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years, boosting consumer demand and housing needs [3][4] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is implementing multiple measures to stabilize the capital market, supported by the central bank's optimized monetary policy tools [4] - The new financing coordination mechanism aims to support foreign trade-related enterprises and stabilize supply chains, enhancing competitiveness and risk resilience [4] - The combination of these financial policies is expected to inject new vitality into the economy, focusing on stabilizing the market and expectations through various measures [4]

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 专题：国新办举行新闻发布会 潘功胜、李云泽、吴清重磅发声 国证监会主要负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，回应市场关切，并明确了增量 政策安排。其中，中国人民银行推出三大类共十项的一揽子货币政策措施，金融监管总局将推出八项增 量政策，证监会从三方面入手持续稳定和活跃资本市场。对此，万家基金表示，本次会议凸显了中央稳 市场、稳预期的明确信号，打响政治局会议落实的第一枪。 具体来看，本次降准50BP，和924幅度一样，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；降低OMO利率 10BP（将带动LPR降息10BP），幅度略低于924（当时降了20BP），但本次结构性降息25BP，幅度较 大，包括公积金贷款利率、PSL利率、支农支小再贷款利率等，此外，本次推出结构性贷款1.1万亿，规 模较大，包括新设立5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款，增加6000亿的科技和支农支小贷款。央行表示， 未来还可以扩大工具的规模，坚定支持汇金公司在必要时实施对股票市场指数基金的增持。本次会议在 中美关系和增量政策两方面均有超预期举措，中美开启接触谈判，降准降 ...

银行 2025 年 05 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《春潮涌动，韧性彰显—理财 2025Q1 季报解读》-2025.4.25 《破解利润调节器，从拨备论证大行 盈利确定性价值—行业深度报告》 -2025.4.19 一揽子政策的效能—由政策端至银行股的投资线索 ——行业点评报告 《大行资金融出恢复，非银转向一般 性存款—3 月央行信贷收支表要点解 读》-2025.4.15 liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 刘呈祥（分析师） 丁黄石（分析师） dinghuangshi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040004 5 月 7 日，央行等三部门于国新办发布会介绍了新增一揽子金融支持政策情况。 其中央行从数量、价格、结构三大方向进行调控，共推出十余项措施，总体可 概括为降准（普降 50bp 以及汽车金融、金租公司阶段降至 0%），降息（政策 利率 0.1pct +结构性工具、公积金贷款利率 0.25pct）和扩容扩量（新设服务 ...