Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government firmly opposes the U.S. plan to impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products starting in 2027, arguing that such actions disrupt global supply chains and hinder the development of the semiconductor industry worldwide [1]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Plans - The U.S. intends to impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products beginning in 2027 [1]. - The Chinese government views these tariffs as an unreasonable suppression of its industry [1]. Group 2: Chinese Government's Response - The Chinese government urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous actions and to resolve concerns through dialogue based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit [1]. - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of maintaining stable, healthy, and sustainable development in U.S.-China relations [1]. Group 3: Potential Consequences - If the U.S. continues with its unilateral actions, the Chinese government will take corresponding measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests [1].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce suspended exports of products and technology to COMAC, specifically targeting the Leap-1C engine for the C919 aircraft, as a response to China's rare earth export controls [1][3] - The suspension has caused delays in new orders for the C919, although COMAC has sufficient inventory to maintain production temporarily [1][3] - The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese rare earth materials, with over 80% dependency, leading to immediate concerns in defense and semiconductor sectors following China's export controls [3][5] Group 2 - The CJ-1000 engine, a domestic alternative to the Leap-1C, has shown promising results in testing and is expected to be integrated into the C919 by the end of the year, with a thrust comparable to the Leap-1C [7][13] - Following the suspension, COMAC prioritized the assembly of already delivered components while increasing domestic production capabilities, aiming for an 80% localization rate [9][13] - The first successful test flight of the C919 equipped with the CJ-1000 engine occurred in October, indicating a significant advancement in China's aviation engine technology [13][15] Group 3 - The U.S. has proposed to relax rare earth export controls in exchange for increased quotas from China, leading to the resumption of GE's component shipments for the C919 [9][15] - The ongoing trade tensions have prompted U.S. companies to seek alternative supply chains, but quality concerns remain, particularly in the context of defense and electric vehicle sectors [15] - The C919 project is positioned to deliver over a hundred aircraft next year, reflecting a strategic shift in the global aviation market amid U.S.-China competition [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government firmly opposes the U.S. plan to impose tariffs on the semiconductor industry starting in 2027, arguing that such actions disrupt global supply chains and hinder the development of the semiconductor industry worldwide, ultimately harming the U.S. itself [1] Group 1 - The Chinese government urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous actions and to resolve concerns through dialogue based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit [1] - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of maintaining stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations, guided by the consensus reached by the leaders of both countries [1] - The Chinese government warns that if the U.S. continues its unilateral actions, it will take necessary measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Chinese yuan has recently reached a 14-month high, with expectations of breaking the "7" mark against the US dollar due to strong economic fundamentals and a weakening dollar [1][2]. - The strong performance of exports, with a current account surplus of $600 billion, supports the positive outlook for the yuan's appreciation [2]. - The People's Bank of China is managing market expectations through the yuan's midpoint rate and adjusting the foreign exchange market to control the pace of capital inflows [2][3]. Group 2 - The article discusses the potential for the yuan to appreciate further, with predictions of reaching 6.7 by the end of 2026 and possibly 6.0 in the next decade [2]. - It highlights the impact of yuan appreciation on the capital market, suggesting that a 0.1% increase in the exchange rate could lead to a 3%-5% rise in stock valuations [3]. - The article also notes that yuan appreciation may increase the cost of currency exchange for cross-border investments, potentially affecting returns on investments in Hong Kong stocks and other cross-border financial products [3].

12月24日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。 法新社记者提问，美国贸易代表调查结果称"中国实行了不公平的措施，企图主导半导体产业"，美国拟自2027 年起对中国半导体产业加征关税。中方对此有何评论？ 林剑表示，中方坚决反对美方滥施关税、无理打压中国产业。美方的做法扰乱全球产供链稳定，阻碍各国半导 体产业的发展，损人害己。 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 券中社 × 券商中国 券 中 社 扫码下载券中社APP 扫码关注券商中国公众号 quanshangcn qzs.stcn.com 舞中 券中社APP 券 商 中 国 是 证 券 市 场 权 威 媒 体 《 证 券 时 报 》 旗 下 新 媒 体 , 券 商 中 国 对 该 平 台 所 刊 载 的 原 创 内 容 享 有 著 作 权 , 未 经 授 权 禁 止 转 载 ， 否 则 将 追 究 相 应 法 律 责 任 。 看券商中国 知天下财经 F "我们敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首达成的重要共识为引领，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上，通过 对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美关系稳定健康可持续发展。如 ...

（原标题：美国拟对中国半导体产业征收关税，外交部回应） "我们敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首达成的重要共识为引领，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础 上，通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美关系稳定健康可持续发展。如果美方一意孤行， 中方必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。"林剑说。 来源：北京日报客户端 连续大举加仓！ 12月24日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。 法新社记者提问，美国贸易代表调查结果称"中国实行了不公平的措施，企图主导半导体产业"，美国拟 自2027年起对中国半导体产业加征关税。中方对此有何评论？ 林剑表示，中方坚决反对美方滥施关税、无理打压中国产业。美方的做法扰乱全球产供链稳定，阻碍各 国半导体产业的发展，损人害己。 ...

来源：北京日报客户端 连续大举加仓！ "我们敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首达成的重要共识为引领，在平等、尊重、互惠 的基础上，通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美关系稳定健康可持续发展。 如 果美方一意孤行，中方必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益 。"林剑说。 12月24日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。 法新社记者提问，美国贸易代表调查结果称"中国实行了不公平的措施，企图主导半导体产 业"，美国拟自2027年起对中国半导体产业加征关税。中方对此有何评论？ 林剑表示， 中方坚决反对美方滥施关税、无理打压中国产业。美方的做法扰乱全球产供链稳 定，阻碍各国半导体产业的发展，损人害己。 ...

法新社记者提问，美国贸易代表调查结果称"中国实行了不公平的措施，企图主导半导体产业"，美国 拟自2027年起对中国半导体产业加征关税。中方对此有何评论？ 12月24日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。 "我们敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首达成的重要共识为引领，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础 上，通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美关系稳定健康可持续发展。如果美方一意孤行， 中方必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。"林剑说。 来源｜北京日报 林剑表示，中方坚决反对美方滥施关税、无理打压中国产业。美方的做法扰乱全球产供链稳定，阻碍各 国半导体产业的发展，损人害己。 编辑 ｜ 钉钉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market shows strength with the Fed's expected rate - cut, suggesting a long - position for gold and a wait - and - see approach for silver [1]. - For base metals, different strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market performance, fundamentals, such as buying copper on dips, expecting aluminum to oscillate in the short - term, and predicting alumina to decline with oscillations [2]. - In the black industry, a wait - and - see approach is generally recommended, with attempts to short certain contracts like螺纹2605 and焦煤09 [5]. - In the agricultural products market, various trading strategies are proposed according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as trading South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports for soybeans, and shorting sugar futures [6]. - For energy and chemical products, different trading strategies are given based on the supply - demand balance, including short - term oscillations and long - term improvement for some products, and short - selling for others [7][8]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices broke through and strengthened, standing above $4400 per ounce, and domestic gold prices exceeded 1000 yuan. Silver inventories showed different trends in different markets [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Fed officials' statements, geopolitical events, and inventory changes in gold and silver affected the market. For example, the Fed may not cut rates until next spring, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long gold and wait - and - see for silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The implementation time of US refined copper tariffs may be postponed, and the supply of copper mines remained tight [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect aluminum prices to oscillate in the short - term within the current high - level range [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to decline with oscillations [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪锌2601 contract increased by 0.09% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: LME zinc inventories increased significantly, and the consumption off - season deepened [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪铅2601 contract increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of primary lead recovered after maintenance, while the supply of recycled lead decreased significantly. The lead battery start - up rate decreased slightly [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range, with a focus on long - positions at low prices [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 1.09% compared to the previous trading day, and the position increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased, and social inventories decreased. The demand from related industries remained stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly in the range of 8000 - 9000, and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 2.7% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, and demand decreased in some sectors. December saw inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect short - term price increase with oscillations [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 2.32% compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained stable, demand decreased, and inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider long - positions on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range [4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The螺纹2605 contract increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills continued to make losses, production might decline marginally, and the futures were at a large discount [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short螺纹2605 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The铁矿2605 contract decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore supply and demand were weak, and the port inventory increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The焦煤2605 contract increased by 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short焦煤09 [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rebounded overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Global soybean supply - demand is expected to be loose, with strong US soybean crushing and slow exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports, and the domestic market is driven down by cost in the short - term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are weak, and spot prices slightly declined [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress slowed down, and downstream demand decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose in the short - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is in seasonal decline but with year - on - year growth, and demand shows an increase in exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats may enter an oscillation phase with product differentiation [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The郑糖05 contract increased by 0.41% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices rebounded slightly, and the domestic market followed with a smaller increase. The long - term global sugar production is expected to increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short sugar futures and sell call options [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of laying hens decreased, and demand is affected by price changes [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillate, and spot prices show a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases, and demand weakens in the agricultural film sector [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 decreased by 1.7% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and inventory is at a high level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or use reverse spreads [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices are at certain levels with a specific basis [7]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is high, and PTA has short - term supply decline and medium - term inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - position PX in the medium - term and look for opportunities to long PTA processing margins in 05 [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 1.5% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices decline, and inventory accumulates. Supply and demand are both weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract continued to decline slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and the export window opens [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG has a certain spot price and basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, inventory accumulates, and demand weakens in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit in the short - term and look for inventory reduction opportunities in the medium - term for 05 [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose due to short - term supply reduction [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is large, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell crude oil on rallies [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is weak in the short - term, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for styrene and related spreads in the second quarter [8]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases with new device production, and demand from photovoltaic glass is weak with high inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [9].

Economic Growth Outlook - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.2% year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [1] - Economists predict that in 2026, China's GDP growth will continue to recover, with an expected growth rate of approximately 5.0% [2][4] Key Economic Drivers - The main drivers for economic growth in 2026 include stable export growth and a rebound in investment, particularly in infrastructure, supported by government policies [4][5] - The real estate market is expected to continue its bottoming process, with overall market risks considered manageable [4][8] Export and Trade Dynamics - Despite challenges from US-China trade tensions, China's exports are anticipated to maintain resilience, supported by new demands from emerging markets and global investments in AI [7] - Economists express cautious optimism regarding export stability, influenced by the global economic environment and potential easing of trade conflicts [7][6] Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate sector is projected to remain in a deep adjustment phase, with investment in real estate expected to decline by 15.9% year-on-year in 2025 [8] - Economists believe that while the real estate market will continue to face downward pressure, the rate of decline may gradually narrow due to previous policy measures [9][8] Price Level Expectations - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.5% year-on-year in 2026, while Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 0.9% [10] - The overall price levels are anticipated to remain low, with potential for gradual recovery influenced by supply and demand dynamics [12][10] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain at 4%, consistent with 2025, with slight increases in special bonds and local government debt [14] - Economists forecast 1-2 interest rate cuts in 2026, with a reduction of 0.1-0.2 percentage points, and a potential decrease in the reserve requirement ratio [14][15] Policy Focus Areas - The policy focus for 2026 will include expanding domestic demand, strengthening industries, and promoting consumption through various subsidies and support measures [16] - Key areas of investment will include infrastructure, technology advancement, and stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies [16][5]