1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each commodity. Overall, the market conditions are complex and diverse, with different commodities facing different supply - demand situations and price trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market price continued to weaken significantly yesterday. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the downstream demand needs to be boosted. The recommended strategy is to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.62% compared to the previous trading day. The smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.68% compared to the previous trading day. Affected by pollution warnings, some northern plants stopped production. The market is expected to be in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract increased by 0.44% compared to the previous trading day. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased significantly, but the import ore loss expanded. The consumption is in the off - season, and the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies [1]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract remained unchanged compared to the previous trading day. The supply side is marginally loose, and the demand side has mixed factors. The lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the recommended strategy is to operate within a range [1][2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract price decreased by 2.79%. The supply side is gradually reducing production, and the demand side is relatively balanced. The price is expected to operate in the range of 8600 - 9400, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2601 contract price decreased by 4.52%. The supply is expected to decrease slightly in November, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to have short - term correction pressure but is supported by demand, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract price decreased by 4.19%. The supply is expected to decline in November, and the downstream demand is weak. The recommended strategy is to try to buy on dips or consider selling put options [2]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the domestic demand needs to be boosted. The recommended strategy is to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [2][3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract price decreased. The building material inventory decreased, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited. The recommended strategy is to wait and see, with the RB01 reference range of 2980 - 3050 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract price decreased. The supply - demand situation is neutral and deteriorating. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions, with the I01 reference range of 750 - 780 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract price decreased. The steel mill profit has deteriorated, and the supply - side inventory is differentiated. The recommended strategy is to wait and see, with the JM01 reference range of 1230 - 1280 [4]. Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. The supply side has a slight reduction in US soybeans and an expected increase in South American soybeans. The demand side has improved export expectations. The US soybeans may enter an oscillation phase, and the domestic market is also expected to be volatile [5][6]. - **Corn**: The futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price mostly rose. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the price is expected to be weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded slightly. The supply in Malaysia is higher than expected, and the export is expected to increase. The oils and fats market is weak and differentiated, and the recommended strategy is to focus on reverse spreads [6]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract price decreased. The international market is expected to increase in production, and the domestic market has a short - term rebound. The recommended strategy is to sell short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fell. The international and domestic cotton markets have different situations. The recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies, with the strategy range of 13400 - 13700 [6]. - **Eggs**: The futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is seasonally increasing. The egg price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pigs**: The futures price was weak, and the spot price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is seasonally increasing. The price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is also expected to be weak [6][7]. - **Apples**: The main contract price decreased. The cold - storage situation in Gansu is not optimistic, and the apple disease in Shaanxi affects the market. The trading in Shandong is active. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemical - **LLDPE**: The main contract price continued to decline slightly. The supply pressure is increasing but at a slower pace, and the demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the medium - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies or do reverse spreads [8]. - **PTA**: The PX price is at a high level, and the PTA supply pressure is large in the long - term. The recommended strategy is to take profit on long PX positions and sell short the PTA processing fee on rallies in the far - month contracts [8]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract price decreased. The rainy season in Thailand is about to end, and the inventory is expected to increase. The price is under short - term pressure [8][9]. - **PP**: The main contract price continued to decline slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the medium - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies or do reverse spreads [9]. - **MEG**: The supply pressure is large in the long - term, and the inventory is accumulating. The recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies for the 01 contract [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price is oscillating. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weakening. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and if the Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day, it can be sold short on rallies [9]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price continued to decline slightly. The supply - demand contradiction is large, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term. The medium - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies or do reverse spreads [9][10].

Report Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention the industry investment ratings. Core Views - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft suggests focusing on key areas for future investment. The recent Sino-US trade talks have reached a phased consensus, which will reduce the impact of tariff policies on the market and increase market risk appetite [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to trade between 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger trend. Enterprises are advised to manage exchange rate risks [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue its short - term correction, especially for small and medium - cap stocks, but there is support below [6]. - Treasury bonds are recommended to be bought on dips [7]. - The container shipping futures for European routes are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. Traders are advised to be cautious [12]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and mid - term buying opportunities on dips can be considered [17]. - Copper prices may test the support around 85000; downstream enterprises can use a combination strategy to reduce procurement costs [19]. - Aluminum is expected to be in a high - level shock; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be in a high - level shock [20]. - Zinc is expected to be in a high - level shock [21]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak position with significant downward pressure, and macro factors need to be closely monitored [22]. - Tin is expected to be in a high - level shock, and long - term bullish sentiment remains [23]. - Carbonate lithium presents an opportunity for inventory replenishment [25]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillatory adjustment phase [27]. - Lead is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term due to supply shortages [28]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils may test the previous low support [29]. - Iron ore prices have limited upside potential, and short - selling opportunities after valuation repair can be considered [31]. - Coking coal and coke have seen the third round of price increases. They are suitable for long - positions in the black market [33]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand [34]. - Crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 65 dollars this week [37]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [39]. - PTA - PX is expected to be relatively strong and oscillate with the cost side [43]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate widely, and short - selling strategies can be considered [47]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline [49]. - PP is expected to remain weak due to the supply - demand imbalance [51]. - PE is expected to be weak and oscillate due to high supply and limited demand [54]. - Pure benzene and styrene are likely to be weak and lack upward drivers [57]. - Fuel oil is expected to continue its downward trend [58]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil's valuation has increased [59]. - Asphalt is expected to continue its downward trend, and short - term waiting or short - selling can be considered [62]. - Rubber and 20 - numbered rubber are expected to continue their weak trend and search for a bottom [67]. - Urea is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory pattern [69]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, attention should be paid to the realization of supply expectations [70]. - Pulp and offset paper are expected to be relatively oscillatory in the short term [74]. - Logs are recommended to be short - sold, and attention should be paid to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity [77]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: Focus on US employment data. The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft provides investment directions. The Sino - US trade talks have reached a phased consensus, but long - term trade frictions still need attention. The US government shutdown and the Fed's interest rate cut are also key factors [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The USD/CNY spot rate is expected to trade between 7.09 - 7.14 this week. Enterprises are advised to manage exchange rate risks [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to continue its short - term correction, especially for small and medium - cap stocks, but there is support below [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds are recommended to be bought on dips. The central bank's bond - buying in October was lower than expected [7]. - **Container Shipping for European Routes**: The futures are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. Traders are advised to be cautious [12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. Mid - term buying opportunities on dips can be considered [17]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may test the support around 85000. Downstream enterprises can use a combination strategy to reduce procurement costs [19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be in a high - level shock; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be in a high - level shock [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to be in a high - level shock [21]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are in a weak position with significant downward pressure. Macro factors need to be closely monitored [22]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to be in a high - level shock, and long - term bullish sentiment remains [23]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It presents an opportunity for inventory replenishment [25]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in an oscillatory adjustment phase [27]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term due to supply shortages [28]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coils**: They may test the previous low support. The market is affected by production restrictions, raw material prices, and macro factors [29]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices have limited upside potential. Short - selling opportunities after valuation repair can be considered [31]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The third round of price increases has been implemented. They are suitable for long - positions in the black market [33]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand [34]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 65 dollars this week [37]. - **LPG**: LPG is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [39]. - **PTA - PX**: They are expected to be relatively strong and oscillate with the cost side [43]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is expected to oscillate widely, and short - selling strategies can be considered [47]. - **Methanol**: Methanol 01 may continue to decline [49]. - **PP**: PP is expected to remain weak due to the supply - demand imbalance [51]. - **PE**: PE is expected to be weak and oscillate due to high supply and limited demand [54]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: They are likely to be weak and lack upward drivers [57]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is expected to continue its downward trend [58]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its valuation has increased [59]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to continue its downward trend. Short - term waiting or short - selling can be considered [62]. - **Rubber & 20 - numbered Rubber**: They are expected to continue their weak trend and search for a bottom [67]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory pattern [69]. - **Glass, Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to the realization of supply expectations [70]. - **Pulp & Offset Paper**: They are expected to be relatively oscillatory in the short term [74]. - **Logs**: Logs are recommended to be short - sold, and attention should be paid to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity [77].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the fixed income market and macroeconomic conditions in China, particularly in relation to U.S.-China trade tensions and monetary policy adjustments by the central bank [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S.-China Trade Tensions**: Ongoing trade disputes are highlighted, with the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods and software exports. Despite some temporary agreements, the potential for long-term trade friction remains a concern [1][3][14]. 2. **Monetary Policy Signals**: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed open market operations for government bonds, signaling a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy. This has led to a decrease in long-term bond yields by 4-6 basis points [1][4]. 3. **Economic Indicators**: The October PMI data fell below the growth line, influenced by seasonal factors. However, there is optimism for a rebound in manufacturing due to easing external demand constraints [1][7]. 4. **Government Debt Supply**: The net supply of government bonds in November is expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan, doubling from the previous month, which may temporarily affect interbank liquidity [1][12]. 5. **Market Reactions**: The anticipated easing of monetary policy is expected to benefit both the stock and bond markets, enhancing growth expectations and risk appetite [1][13]. Additional Important Content 1. **CPI and PPI Trends**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show limited recovery in October, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a narrowing of declines but is unlikely to turn positive in the short term [5]. 2. **Institutional Behavior**: In October, institutional trading behavior showed a decrease in allocation size while trading volumes slightly increased. The impact of new regulations on public fund sales is a key focus for November [5][15]. 3. **Export Trends**: The trade friction is likely to have a short-term impact on exports, with positive growth expected to continue but facing potential future pressures [6]. 4. **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market has seen a decline in sales, with a need to monitor recovery signs post-extreme weather conditions [8]. 5. **Social Financing Structure**: There is a noted weakening in government bond support within the social financing structure, with corporate and household credit improvements remaining subdued [9][10]. 6. **GDP Growth Expectations**: GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to improve, with a target of 5% for the year remaining achievable, although high base effects from the previous year may pose challenges [11]. 7. **Banking Sector Dynamics**: Large banks have shown a trend of reduced net purchases of short-term government bonds following the resumption of bond trading operations by the PBOC [18]. 8. **Future Funding and Policy Outlook**: The funding environment is expected to stabilize under a loose monetary policy, with recommendations for investors to seize opportunities when yields reach 1.8% to 1.85% [19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the fixed income market and broader economic conditions in China.

Core Insights - The article highlights a potential reduction of 10% in U.S. tariffs on Chinese fentanyl, indicating a possible compromise in U.S.-China trade relations [1] - Concurrently, China has resumed purchasing U.S. soybeans, with three orders totaling nearly 180,000 tons, suggesting a thaw in trade tensions [1] - These developments are linked to the outcomes of the fifth round of U.S.-China economic talks in Kuala Lumpur, signaling a significant easing of long-standing trade frictions [1] U.S. Perspective - The U.S. decision to lower tariffs is driven by domestic pressures, particularly from American soybean farmers facing a surplus due to lack of Chinese purchases [3] - The U.S. agricultural sector has been vocal in urging the government to engage constructively with China, as the absence of the Chinese market poses a risk for the upcoming midterm elections [3] - Internal contradictions within the U.S. government are evident, with conflicting statements from officials regarding trade agreements, reflecting a struggle among various interest groups [3] China’s Strategy - The soybean orders from China, while significant, represent only a small fraction of its overall imports, indicating a strategic approach to diversify supply sources [5] - China has developed a multi-source supply chain for soybeans, reducing reliance on U.S. imports, which serves as a buffer against U.S. trade policy fluctuations [5] - The decision to engage in soybean purchases is seen as a pragmatic move to test U.S. intentions while maintaining leverage in negotiations [5] Global Trade Implications - The U.S.-China soybean and tariff negotiations reflect broader shifts in global trade dynamics, with China moving away from dependence on U.S. agricultural products [8] - The article suggests that the U.S. has lost trust among its largest buyers due to its trade policies, which could have long-term repercussions for American farmers [8] - The interactions between the two largest economies highlight the necessity for cooperation, but also underscore the challenges posed by internal divisions within the U.S. government and the need for genuine commitment from both sides to rebuild trust [8]

金融期货早评 宏观：关注美国就业数据 【市场资讯】1）中国财政部长蓝佛安：将不新增隐性债务作为"铁的纪律"。2）美国就业 市场降温信号显现：今年企业裁员人数创 2020 年以来新高。3）美国 10 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 不升反降至 48.7%，连续八个月萎缩，需求和就业疲软，通胀降温；欧元区 10 月制造 业 PMI 终值 50，德、法持续萎缩，新订单疲软拖累复苏进程。4）美联储理事米兰：美联 储政策过于紧缩，应通过一系列 50 基点降息实现中性利率；美联储理事库克被特朗普起 诉以来首次公开讲话：还没就 12 月降息做决定。5）美国财政部将本季借款预期规模下调 210 亿美元至 5690 亿，因手头现金余额超预期充裕。6）美国政府停摆影响航空安全，美 国交通部长：如有必要将关闭全国领空。 【核心逻辑】"十五五" 规划建议稿正式发布，可依据规划建议稿明确的重点领域，锁定未 来核心关注方向。同时，中美经贸团队于吉隆坡磋商达成阶段性共识，将在未来一年内减 弱关税政策对市场的扰动，边际提升市场风险偏好，推动相关资产逐步回归基本面定价。 中美贸易摩擦本质上是一场持久战，矛盾的缓和需要时间积累，难以通过单次磋商实现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, highlighting China's strategic responses to U.S. tariff increases and its ability to leverage various advantages in the trade conflict [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Actions - In April 2025, the U.S. unilaterally imposed a 34% "reciprocal tariff," which was quickly raised to 145%, aiming to replicate its previous negotiation tactics with other countries [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed surprise at China's willingness to confront the U.S. directly, indicating a shift in the expected dynamics of trade negotiations [3] Group 2: China's Strategic Advantages - China has diversified its trade network, reducing reliance on the U.S. market, with imports and exports to Belt and Road Initiative countries growing by 6.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 51.7% of total trade [5] - The resilience of China's domestic market, supported by a population of 1.4 billion and a growing middle class, serves as a stabilizing factor against external shocks [5] - China's policy adaptability and efficient institutional advantages allow for quick responses to U.S. tariffs, such as initiating domestic shipbuilding upgrades after U.S. tariffs on the industry [5][11] Group 3: Control Over Critical Resources - China holds a dominant position in the rare earth industry, controlling 69% of global refining capacity and over 90% of advanced processing capacity, which is crucial for U.S. high-tech and military applications [7] - The recent inclusion of synthetic diamonds in China's export control list has raised concerns in the global semiconductor industry, as China produces 95% of industrial-grade diamonds essential for precision manufacturing [9][11] Group 4: U.S. Strategic Miscalculations - The U.S. has historically used tariffs as a tool to pressure other nations, but the backlash from American manufacturers indicates that such strategies may be self-defeating, leading to increased costs and job losses domestically [15] - The U.S. is perceived as unreliable in trade negotiations, often reversing commitments, which undermines its credibility and complicates future discussions [16][18] - China's understanding of U.S. strategic anxieties and its own response strategies—avoiding provocation while standing firm—demonstrates a shift in the balance of power in trade relations [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - After the macro events such as the China-US summit and the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market's positive factors have been fully realized. However, the Fed has released a hawkish guidance, which exerts downward pressure on risk assets in Q4. The domestic economy still faces significant pressure, with the manufacturing PMI hitting a new low, indicating insufficient demand. But the incremental fiscal funds are expected to support the economy [4]. - The domestic economic data continues to be weak, especially in the consumption and real estate sectors. The high-frequency real estate sales data has declined significantly without incremental positive policies. The export orders shown by the PMI have dropped sharply, related to the end of the rush to export. The anti-involution policy is being promoted, resulting in a weak supply and demand in the real economy [4]. - The domestic liquidity is generally loose, with the government debt financing rising continuously and the marginal increase in open market money supply. The short-term liquidity is neutral, but the credit impulse in Q4 is marginally tightening. Passive ETF funds continue to be subscribed, and margin trading funds continue to flow in stably. The reduction intensity of industrial capital has slowed down. Overseas liquidity is marginally tightening under the Fed's hawkish guidance, and foreign capital has a marginal outflow tendency. The overall supply and demand of market funds are relatively optimistic, but there are also some differences, so beware of the risk of high-level style switching [4]. - After a sharp short-term rise, the valuations of various indices have reached relatively high levels in history. The stock-bond risk premiums at home and abroad are low, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - Currently, the broad-based index market has high valuations, especially the growth style. The risk premium indices at home and abroad have dropped to low levels, and the attractiveness of the stock market has decreased marginally. With the large market scale, the limited liquidity is difficult to drive continuous growth. After the short-term macro positive factors are fully realized, the market enters a policy vacuum period. With the marginal support of fiscal funds for the economy in Q4, the overall macro fluctuations are expected to be small. The market may maintain a high-level range-bound trend, similar to that in Q4 last year. Focus on structural opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a high-sell and low-buy strategy for stock indices in November. Consider shorting IF, IC, and IM stock indices in the high-rebound area and going long on IF and IH stock indices in the sharp-drop low area. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on the cyclical style and shorting the growth style [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In the past month, among global stock markets, the Nikkei 225 led the rise, while the Hang Seng Tech Index led the decline. Among domestic stock markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.85%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 4.05% [8][9]. - In the past month, among industries, coal led the rise, while media led the decline [12]. - In the past month, the basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.19%, 0.14%, -0.35%, and 0.65% respectively. The discounts of IC and IM widened, while the discounts of IF and IH narrowed slightly. The changes in the inter - period spreads of the four major stock index futures were generally small, but the long - term discounts of IC and IM widened significantly [18]. Fund Flow - In October, margin trading funds flowed in 104.93 billion yuan to reach 2.5 trillion yuan, and the proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 0.08% to 2.58%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3.73373 trillion yuan, an increase of 125.81 billion yuan from the previous month. The share was 211.724 billion shares, with a subscription of 76.25 billion shares from the previous month, and a subscription of 5.89 billion shares in the latest week, with the scale increasing by 15.36 billion yuan [21]. - In October, equity financing was 49.44 billion yuan, with 6 companies. IPO financing was 12.16 billion yuan, private placement was 37.27 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 5.48 billion yuan. The equity financing scale decreased significantly, mainly due to the reduction in private placement. The market value of restricted - share lifting in October was 246.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.14 billion yuan from the previous month, mainly due to the one - week less trading time during the National Day holiday. The reduction scale in the recent week decreased marginally, with the monthly - annualized scale dropping to 211.28 billion yuan [24]. Liquidity - In October, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 5.8572 trillion yuan, with a reverse repurchase issuance of 5.2761 trillion yuan, resulting in a net money withdrawal of 58.11 billion yuan. The liquidity in the open - market business tightened. The MLF issued 900 billion yuan and expired 700 billion yuan in October, with a net issuance of 20 billion yuan. The MLF has had a net issuance for 8 consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply is neutral to loose [26]. - In October, the DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 1.7bp, - 12.6bp, and - 5.8bp respectively to 1.46%, 1.41%, and 1.32%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 8.5bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 2.1bp to 1.64%. The capital supply tended to be loose, and the debt financing demand was strong. The capital price generally fluctuated at a low level [32]. - In October, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond changed by - 8.1bp, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield changed by - 5.6bp, and the 2 - year Treasury bond yield changed by - 10.9bp. The 10 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 11.1bp, the 5 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 7.3bp, and the 2 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 6.8bp. Overall, the yield term structure steepened slightly in October, and both long - and short - term interest rates decreased significantly, mainly due to the weak economic data and the decline in financing demand. The credit spread between Treasury bonds and CDB bonds narrowed significantly at the long end, indicating a cooling of the broad - credit expectation [36]. - As of October 31, the 10 - year US Treasury bond rate changed by - 5.0bp to 4.11%, the inflation expectation changed by - 6.0bp to 2.30%, and the real interest rate changed by 1.00bp to 1.81%. The risk asset prices were first boosted and then suppressed by the financial conditions. The 10 - 2Y spread of US Treasury bonds changed by - 5.00bp to 51.00bp. The inversion of the China - US interest rate spread widened slightly by 1.12bp to - 231.42bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.11%. The US dollar against the RMB fluctuated at a level below the mid - point of the three - year range [39]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - As of October 30, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.074 million square meters, a slight decrease from the previous week's 2.101 million square meters, returning to a relatively low level in the same period. Compared with the same period in 2019 before the pandemic, it decreased by 45.4%. The second - hand housing sales decreased seasonally and significantly from the previous month, returning to a relatively low level in the past seven years. The real estate market sales showed a weak performance overall, with the sales center oscillating at a low level, and there were signs of marginal acceleration of weakening in the short term [43]. - As of October 31, the weekly average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities in China remained at a high level, reaching 83.8 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a 32% increase compared with the same period in 2021. The economic activity in the service industry heated up marginally. The traffic congestion delay index in 100 cities rebounded from the previous week, remaining at a neutral level in the past three years. Overall, the economic activity in the service industry tended to a natural and stable growth level, with insignificant monthly changes [46]. - In October, the overall capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry decreased. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by - 2.25%, the asphalt capacity utilization rate changed by - 8.6%, the cement clinker enterprise capacity utilization rate changed by 5%, the coking enterprise capacity utilization rate changed by - 1.99%, and the average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by - 0.5% from the previous month. On the one hand, the implementation of the anti - involution policy led to a decrease in capacity utilization; on the other hand, the weakening of domestic and foreign demand in the manufacturing industry led to a reduction in enterprise operating rates [50]. - In terms of exports, after the tariff policies of the US on major countries have been finalized and the China - US summit postponed the tariff policy exemption for one year, the risk of a full - scale escalation of trade frictions has dropped sharply. After the previous export impulse effect, there is a risk of a pulse decline in Q4. China's manufacturing export competitiveness is strong, and after the decline in trade friction risks, it is expected to maintain its potential growth rate for a long time, supporting the economic center [58]. - In September, the US CPI inflation continued to rebound, while the core CPI inflation unexpectedly decreased, with a month - on - month decline of 0.1% to 3%. In terms of structure, energy prices contributed the main increase, the growth of food and beverages related to commodity inflation did not expand, and the housing and medical sub - items related to core inflation declined significantly, especially the housing sub - item, which decreased by 0.2% in a single month, indicating that the policy of expelling illegal immigrants began to affect core inflation again. Assuming that the month - on - month growth rate in October remains at 0.3% and drops to 0.2% from November to December, the annualized month - on - month rate at the end of the year will drop to 2.84%, and the Fed has limited room for further interest rate cuts this year [59]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October as expected by the market, but Powell released a hawkish guidance in the press conference, expressing concerns about the lag effect of tariffs on inflation and stating that the overall economic pressure was not large, and the preventive interest rate cuts were expected to end. The financial market significantly revised the overly optimistic market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of another interest rate cut in December 2025 dropped significantly to 63%, and the market will maintain a wait - and - see attitude until next April. The expected terminal interest rate for this year's interest rate cuts is between 3.5% - 3.75% [63]. Other Analyses - In the past month, the stock - bond risk premium was 2.56%, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous month, at the 44.1% quantile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 3.39%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month, at the 16.7% quantile. The attractiveness of foreign capital was at a relatively low level [66]. - The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 86.4%, 86.6%, 95.7%, and 85.3% quantiles respectively in the past five years, with relatively high valuation levels. The quantiles changed by 0.3%, - 1.6%, - 4%, and - 0.3% respectively from the previous month, and the attractiveness of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices increased marginally [70]. - According to the seasonal pattern analysis, the stock market in November is in a period of seasonal oscillation and structural differentiation. In terms of style, the growth style takes the lead first, followed by the cyclical style, with an overall high - level oscillation. The profit - making effect of the stock market in November is generally poor, and the style switches frequently. Considering the high valuation of the current growth style, the weak real - economy situation, and the full realization of positive factors, it is prone to high - level adjustments. Since the IF, IH, and IC are highly related to AI technology, all styles have adjustment risks. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the cyclical style's supplementary increase and the switch from the growth style to AI applications. Go long on IF and IH in case of a sharp drop, and conduct high - sell and low - buy operations on IC and IM [74].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 宏观利好落地，有色板块先扬后抑 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-11-03 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 有色金属价格监测 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 02 PART TWO 铜（CU） 逻辑及策略 | | | | 铜产业链逻辑及策略 标题行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | 宏观因素 | 偏空 | （1）中美领导人于韩国会晤，双方确认吉隆坡磋商成果，当前来看，双方近期谈判取得的成效较为显著，短期中美贸易摩擦风 | | | | | 险有望进一步降温。（2）美联储如期降息25bp ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft provides future focus directions, and the Sino-US economic and trade consultation has reached a phased consensus, but the long - term game remains. The manufacturing PMI has declined marginally, and the economy needs policy support. Overseas, the Fed has cut interest rates with internal differences, and the market's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is in a tug - of - war around 7.10. Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal, and it is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week [3][4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly due to a dull news environment. Treasury bonds suggest holding medium - term long positions. The container shipping European line is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [7][8][13]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and copper's 12 - month contract has reached its high. Aluminum is expected to be in high - level fluctuations, and alumina may be in weak fluctuations [18][21][23]. - Zinc is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations, and nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. Tin is in high - level fluctuations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state [26][29][30]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. Lead is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Steel products are expected to be in an oscillating adjustment. Iron ore has limited upward space, and coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [37][40][41]. - Ferroalloys are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand. Crude oil is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range this week [42][46]. - LPG is affected by cost. PX - PTA is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, and MEG is expected to be in wide - range fluctuations and maintain a short - position allocation [48][52][55]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and PP and PE are in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in low - level fluctuations [57][61][64]. - Fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening. Asphalt's basis is weakening [68][69][72]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - China's October official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates with internal differences, and Powell's hawkish speech reduced the probability of a December interest - rate cut [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal. It is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week, and the key technical point around 7.10 is the focus of the battle between bulls and bears [3][4]. Stock Index - Last Friday, most stock indexes fell except for the CSI 1000. Short - term news is dull, and it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [5][7]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bonds rose significantly. The central bank's stance on supporting monetary policy and resuming secondary - market bond purchases improved market expectations. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [7][8]. Container Shipping European Line - There are both positive and negative factors. The contract price is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the 1800 - 1900 point range. Trend traders can wait, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread between EC2512 and EC2602 [10][11][13]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals continued to adjust. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term is in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15][16][18]. Copper - The 12 - month contract of copper has reached its high. In November, the market focuses on the 1 - month contract. If the December interest - rate cut expectation increases, there may be an upward impulse [19][21]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is affected by macro - policies and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations. Alumina is in a supply - surplus state and may be in weak fluctuations. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations [23][24][25]. Zinc - Zinc prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. There is an upward drive in November, and it is recommended to wait and see exports and the macro - situation [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. The 12 - month interest - rate cut expectation is uncertain, and the Sino - US tariff situation is changeable [27][29]. Tin - Tin prices are in high - level fluctuations, mainly affected by the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [30]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state in the 74000 - 85000 yuan/ton range, affected by supply and demand factors [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to be cautious when investing in polycrystalline silicon [33][34][35]. Lead - Lead prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. It is recommended to use option double - selling strategies to earn option premiums [36]. Steel Products - Steel products are in an oscillating adjustment. The follow - up apparent demand needs to be improved, and it is affected by raw material costs and the macro - environment [37]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a situation of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". It is recommended to short at high levels after valuation repair [38][39][40]. Coking Coal and Coke - Downstream coking plants and steel mills are actively replenishing inventory. Coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [41]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys are facing the contradiction of high inventory and weak demand. After the macro - sentiment fades, they are expected to oscillate [42]. Crude Oil - Last week, crude oil was in a sideways adjustment. This week, it is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range, and it is difficult to break through [44][46]. LPG - LPG is affected by cost. The domestic fundamental support is relatively limited, and it is mainly affected by the cost side [47][48]. PX - PTA - PTA's price has rebounded due to the "anti - involution" rumor and improved fundamentals. It is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, but the surplus expectation remains [49][50][52]. MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol's demand has improved marginally, but the valuation is under pressure due to the inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to short at high levels [53][54][55]. Methanol - Methanol 01 may continue to decline due to the delay of the Iranian gas - restriction expectation [56][57]. PP - PP is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally relieve, and it is expected to be weak [59][61]. PE - PE is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes [63][64]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to be weak due to the expected inventory accumulation. Styrene has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. It is recommended to short after a rebound [66][67]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening due to improved fundamentals [68][69]. Asphalt - Asphalt's basis is weakening. The short - term is affected by external disturbances, and the long - term demand in the south may be boosted [70][72].

Group 1: Economic Growth and Trade - China's economic growth target for 2025 is set at around 5% [2] - GDP growth rates for the first three quarters were 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8%, with an average of 5.2% [2] - Domestic fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to September [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year during the same period, indicating steady domestic demand [2] - Exports rose by 6.1% year-on-year from January to September, aided by the easing of US-China trade tensions [2][3] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - A meeting between the US and Chinese leaders on October 30 resulted in the cancellation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a one-year suspension of a 24% tariff [3] - The easing of trade tensions has alleviated market concerns and increased risk appetite, contributing to a rise in the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations - The necessity for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut has decreased, with the current RRR at 9% [4] - The likelihood of further RRR cuts this year is low due to the current economic conditions and the easing of trade tensions [4] - The central bank has resumed trading in government bonds, which serves as an alternative to RRR cuts for liquidity management [4] - Increased operations in reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) indicate a compensatory measure for the market [4] - Overall, the expectation of monetary easing is diminishing, leading to a potential decline in government bond futures prices in the fourth quarter [4]