来源：期货日报 消息面上，美国商务部周五公布的一份关键通胀指标显示，美国9月PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，符合 市场预期；9月核心PCE物价指数环比上涨0.2%，略低于市场预期。有分析师认为，这份因政府"停 摆"而延迟的报告为美联储降息进一步开启"绿灯"。 此外，被视作美联储主席候选人领跑者的美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，现在是美联储"谨 慎降息"的好时机，预计其将在下周采取行动。 截至发稿，现货白银价格涨逾2%，报58.21美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货价格收涨2.28%，报58.8美元/ 盎司。 何立峰与美国财政部长贝森特、贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话 据新华社消息，12月5日晚，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长 贝森特和贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话，双方围绕落实好中美两国元首釜山会晤和11月24日通话重要共 识，就下一步开展务实合作和妥善解决经贸领域彼此关切，进行了深入、建设性的交流。双方积极评价 中美吉隆坡经贸磋商成果执行情况，表示要在两国元首战略引领下，继续发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作 用，不断拉长合作清单、压缩问题清单，推动中美经贸关系持续稳定向好。 中国证监会公 ...

铜价本周行情火热，周三刷新历史新高后仍一路上涨，花旗公司发布的看涨价格展望也为市场注入了新 的动力，交易员们预期美国囤积库存将导致供应短缺。 这一工业金属突破了本周早些时候创下的前高点，随后接连上涨，截至发稿，伦敦金属交易所铜价上涨 2.12%，至每吨11,685.70美元。花旗分析师在周五的一份报告中指出，按照其基本假设情景，铜库存正 在美国积累，非美地区则形成短缺，铜价在第二季度均价将达到13,000美元。 花旗分析师Max Layton等人表示："我们确信铜价在2026年前将继续上涨，这受到多重看涨催化剂的支 撑，包括逐渐向好的基本面和宏观背景。"他们预测，受低利率环境和美国财政扩张推动经济增长，以 及欧洲重整军备和能源转型的带动，明年全球终端消费将增长2.5%。 其他金属亦走高，铝价迈向2022年以来的最高收盘价。锌价上涨0.9%。 作为管道、电缆和电动汽车关键组成部分的铜，今年在伦敦金属交易所的价格已上涨超过30%。近几周 涨势加速，主要是因为市场日益担忧，为规避明年潜在的进口关税，铜将大量流向美国，进而抽空其他 关键地区的库存。据知情人士透露，或许正是在为这种紧缺局面做准备，Mercuria能源集 ...

来源：第一财经 知情人士称，因预期供应短缺导致铜价上涨，总部位于瑞士的大宗商品交易商摩科瑞（Mercuria）已发 出通知，计划从伦敦金属交易所（LME）的亚洲仓库提取逾4万吨铜。按当前价格计算，其价值将达到 4.6亿美元。摩科瑞此举有助于提高现货铜合约相对于三个月期铜期货价格的溢价。预期明年铜将出现 短缺的部分原因是印尼和智利的铜矿供应中断，以及需求增长加速，推动LME铜价周三升至每吨11540 美元的纪录高位。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - The commodity price surge is expected to end, with a supply surplus storm projected to impact most industrial metals by 2026 [1][11]. Group 1: Copper - Goldman Sachs predicts a short-term oversupply of copper, with a forecasted surplus of 500,000 tons in 2025, leading to price difficulties in maintaining above $11,000 per ton [4][5]. - The long-term outlook for copper remains positive, with structural supply constraints and strong demand from sectors like energy transition and AI, supporting a price floor at $10,000 per ton [5][6]. - The average LME copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 has been raised from $10,415 to $10,710, with expectations of a slight price correction in the second half post-tariff implementation [5][6]. Group 2: Aluminum - Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish outlook on aluminum, predicting LME aluminum prices will drop to $2,350 per ton by Q4 2026 due to a significant supply surplus of 1.1 million tons [7][8]. - The anticipated supply surge is driven by new capacities from Indonesia and India, alongside increased production from Chinese overseas investments [7][8]. Group 3: Lithium - Despite a recent rebound in lithium prices, Goldman Sachs views this as a temporary phenomenon, forecasting a 23% decline to around $9,500 per ton by the end of 2026 due to increased supply from Africa and Australia [9][10]. - The short-term tightness in lithium supply is attributed to higher-than-expected demand for energy storage systems and operational pauses in some Chinese lithium mines [9]. Group 4: Iron Ore - The outlook for iron ore is bleak, with a projected increase in Chinese port inventories by 51 million tons in 2026, alongside a 1% decline in global seaborne demand [10]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that iron ore prices will fall to $88 per ton by the end of 2026, driven by the need to eliminate high-cost supply from the market [10]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the current rise in industrial metal prices is based on macroeconomic sentiment rather than solid fundamentals, indicating a potential market correction in 2026 [11][12]. - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a period of market differentiation, where only metals like copper, with genuine supply-demand tension, will remain resilient [12].

Group 1 - Copper prices have reached a record high, driven by a significant increase in delivery requests at the London Metal Exchange, the largest since 2013, primarily fueled by applications from Asia [1] - Following a surge in copper orders from Taiwan and South Korea, copper prices rose by 2.4%, exceeding $11,400 per ton, surpassing the peak set on Monday [1] - The recent price increase is attributed to market expectations of supply shortages, with traders moving large quantities of copper to the U.S. ahead of potential import tariffs [1][3] Group 2 - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by approximately 30%, with the latest trading at $11,400.50 per ton on the London Metal Exchange [3] - Other metals have also seen price increases, with aluminum rising by 0.9% and zinc by 0.8% [3] - Supply issues have been a dominant factor in the copper market, with unexpected production halts reported from mines in Indonesia to Chile [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices continue to rise, reaching a new historical high, driven by significant increases in delivery orders from Taiwan and South Korea, and structural supply-side factors [1] Group 1: Price Movement - LME copper prices increased by 2.4%, surpassing $11,400 per ton, breaking the previous day's peak [1] - The cumulative increase in copper prices for the year is approaching 30% [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The largest single-day increase in delivery orders since 2013 was recorded, indicating heightened demand [1] - A significant transfer of copper inventories to the U.S. is occurring to avoid potential import tariffs, leading to shortages in other regions [1] - Multiple production disruptions in mines this year have resulted in decreased global supply elasticity [1] Group 3: Industry Impact - Rising copper prices are creating cost pressures for downstream manufacturing and construction industries [1] - Upstream mining companies are experiencing significant profit margins due to the price surge [1] Group 4: Market Focus - Market attention is shifting to upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including ADP employment, import prices, and industrial production metrics, which may influence future monetary policy expectations and copper price trends [1]

周一，白银价格一度触及每盎司58.84美元的历史新高，延续了上周五近6%的涨幅，并已连续六个交易日上涨。今年以来，白新价值几乎翻了一 番，其涨幅远超黄金约60%的强劲表现。 这一轮凌厉涨势的背后，是交易员对全球供应持续紧张的投机性押注。当比特币及加密货币市场整体下挫时，实体白银的逼空格局正在上演。继 数月前伦敦市场出现历史性挤兑后，如今压力已转移至其他中心。 市场参与者正密切关注这一轮由中国库存告急、强劲工业需求、投机热潮以及潜在贸易政策风险共同导演的"完美风暴"。在全球主要库存中心难 以提供有效缓冲的背景下，白银市场的脆弱性正被放大，任何新的冲击都可能引发更剧烈的价格波动。 上海库存告急，全球短缺"多米诺骨牌"倒下 一场由实体供应短缺引发的风暴正席卷全球白银市场。在上海期货交易所（SHFE）库存骤降至近十年低点之际，白银价格接力黄金的涨势，飙升 至历史新高。 Wind数据显示，11月24日当周上海黄金交易所白银库存下降58.83吨，降至715.875吨，创下2016年7月3日以来新低。11月25日，该库库存虽勉强 累库21.3吨，但仍然处于近十年低位。 金瑞期货分析师Zijie Wu指出，"紧张源于对伦敦的 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated December 2, 2025, covering gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, and stainless steel [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Gold:降息预期回升, indicating that the expectation of interest rate cuts is rising [2]. - Silver:加速冲刺，再创新高, meaning it is accelerating and hitting new highs [2]. - Copper:紧张预期，价格上涨, suggesting a tight supply expectation leading to price increases [2]. - Zinc:供应减产，震荡偏强, showing supply cuts and a tendency to be strong with fluctuations [2]. - Lead:库存减少，支撑价格, indicating that inventory reduction supports the price [2]. - Tin:供应再出扰动, meaning there are further disruptions in supply [2]. - Aluminum:偏强运行, suggesting a relatively strong performance [2]. - Alumina:震荡磨底, indicating a process of bottom - grinding with fluctuations [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:跟随电解铝, meaning it follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum:震荡上行, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [2]. - Palladium:横盘整理, indicating a sideways consolidation [2]. - Nickel:基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行, suggesting that fundamentals limit the upside potential and it fluctuates at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel:库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力, meaning high inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limiting the downside [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Gold**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 959.64 with a daily increase of 1.05%, and the night - session closing price was 964.72 with a night - session increase of 0.66%. The trend strength is 1 [4]. - **Silver**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 13282 with a daily increase of 4.46%, and the night - session closing price was 13766.00 with a night - session increase of 5.08%. The trend strength is 1 [4]. Copper - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 89,280 with a daily increase of 2.12%, and the night - session closing price was 89380 with a night - session increase of 0.11%. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. The trend strength is 1 [9]. Zinc - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22590 with a 0.74% increase. The trend strength is 1 [12]. Lead - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17075 with a - 0.09% change. The trend strength is 0 [15]. Tin - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 306,580 with a 0.50% increase. The trend strength is 0 [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21865. The trend strength is 1 [22]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2677. The trend strength is 0 [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21055. The trend strength is 1 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum**: The trend strength is 1, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [28]. - **Palladium**: The trend strength is 0, indicating a sideways consolidation [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 117,850. The trend strength is 0 [30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,445. The trend strength is 0 [30].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of silver and copper have surged to historical highs due to tightening global supply and expectations of monetary policy easing, reflecting a strong optimistic sentiment in the precious metals market and highlighting specific supply-demand imbalances for silver and copper [1][3][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver prices reached an all-time high of over $57 per ounce on December 1, with a daily increase of approximately 1%, while silver futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit $57.81 [1][3]. - Concerns over supply shortages and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have driven the rapid price increase [3][10]. - China's silver inventory has fallen to a seven-year low, directly linked to record export volumes in October, with over 660 tons exported, marking a historical peak [8][9]. - The significant inventory depletion in China is attributed to cross-border tariff arbitrage activities, exacerbating global supply tightness [3][8]. Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The copper price also reached a record high of $11,210.5 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, with a 13% increase since late August, driven by similar supply constraints and arbitrage activities [4][7]. - The interconnected rise of silver and copper prices illustrates the core narrative of the current commodity market, emphasizing supply shortages as a key price driver [7][9]. - Analysts predict that the ongoing supply tightness could lead to further depletion of copper inventories in regions outside the U.S. [7][8]. Monetary Policy Impact - Expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve have provided solid support for the precious metals market, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [10][11]. - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced market expectations for a potential rate cut in December, further boosting confidence in a low-interest-rate environment [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising prices of silver and copper driven by global supply constraints and expectations of monetary policy easing, marking a significant shift in the commodities market [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The strong momentum in silver and copper prices reflects a general optimism in the precious metals market and specific supply-demand imbalances for these metals [2]. - On December 1, 2023, spot silver prices surpassed $57 per ounce for the first time in history, with silver futures reaching $57.81 per ounce [3]. - China's silver inventory has dropped to a seven-year low, directly linked to record export volumes in October, indicating a significant consumption of inventory due to cross-border tariff arbitrage activities [5][11]. Price Trends and Market Reactions - Copper prices also surged, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) reaching a historical high of $11,210.5 per ton, and Comex copper prices rising to $532.55 per pound [5][7]. - Since the end of August, LME copper prices have increased by approximately 13%, driven by supply tightness and traders moving inventory to the U.S. to lock in premiums [7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current situation is characterized by a supply shortage that is becoming a core driver of prices, as indicated by the movement of large inventories to the U.S. market [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the supply tightness is evident in commercial negotiations, with Chilean copper producer Codelco seeking to significantly increase its annual contract premiums [12]. Monetary Policy Influence - Expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve are providing solid support for silver and the broader precious metals market, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [14]. - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced market expectations for a potential rate cut in December, further boosting confidence in a low-interest-rate environment [14].