Core Viewpoint - The 22nd Nomura Asia Investment Forum highlights the complexities of the current market environment, emphasizing the need for strategic adaptation and collaboration to seize emerging opportunities amidst challenges [2][5]. Group 1: Market Environment - The ongoing trade disputes have caused significant market volatility and disrupted traditional trade flows, leading to a re-evaluation of production layouts and global business strategies by many companies [5]. - Technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and continuous economic policy adjustments present both challenges and opportunities for businesses [5]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Performance - Despite market fluctuations, the global market business of the company has demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability, reflecting strategic initiatives and client trust [6]. - The company aims to leverage its local advantages in Japan to build a robust revenue system across various business segments [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Positive signals from the Chinese economy have prompted the company to raise its GDP growth forecast for China to 4.5% for the year [7]. - India is identified as an attractive market with long-term opportunities, and the company is keen to expand its client base there [6]. Group 4: Forum Insights - The forum brings together experts from various fields, including economics, markets, geopolitics, tariff policies, asset allocation, and technology, to provide multi-dimensional insights [8]. - Approximately 850 investors and 140 companies are participating in the forum, indicating strong interest and engagement in the discussions [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with a focus on the anti-aging agent industry reaching a bottom and the upcoming increase in lubricant additive volume [1][2]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with high-end products accounting for a growing share of sales, leading to an increase in revenue and profit margins [7]. - The second phase of the Kangtai project is gradually releasing capacity, contributing to performance growth, while the lubricant additive business is expected to benefit from global supply chain restructuring [7]. - The life sciences business is being pushed to market, with electronic-grade PI business accelerating integration domestically and internationally, opening new growth avenues [7]. - The profit forecast has been adjusted downwards for 2025-2026 due to trade disruptions and weak terminal demand, with new profit estimates for 2027 introduced [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 6,559 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.3% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 585 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.2% [3]. - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 2.55 yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 22.4% [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.8% in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12 [3]. Market Data - As of May 20, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 29.92 yuan, with a market capitalization of 6,723 million [4]. - The stock has a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.5, indicating a relatively high safety margin compared to its historical average [4][7].

Core Insights - The global political and economic landscape is evolving under Trump's second term, with the U.S. market still holding strategic value for Chinese companies' globalization efforts [1] - Chinese enterprises need to enhance their capabilities in international rule interpretation and establish dynamic response mechanisms in supply chain restructuring and compliance management [1] Group 1: Trade Policy and Tariffs - Trump's trade policy is characterized by five strategic directions, including unilateral trade policies and the weakening of multilateral rules [3][4] - Tariff mechanisms include IEEPA tariffs raising Chinese imports by 20%, 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum products, and a significant increase in counter-tariffs on Chinese goods [4] - The Geneva Joint Statement led to a temporary suspension of tariff increases on certain goods, indicating a phase of balance in tariff negotiations [4] Group 2: Supply Chain Risks and Compliance - Supply chain risk management is crucial for internationalization, with origin rules posing significant risks [5] - Common misconceptions about origin rules can lead to unnecessary tariff burdens and compliance risks, emphasizing the need for a detailed understanding of U.S. customs regulations [5] - ESG compliance has become a global regulatory focus, requiring companies to integrate supply chain compliance with ESG management to navigate complex international regulations [6] Group 3: Economic Sanctions and Legal Risks - Chinese companies engaging in U.S. business must adhere to U.S. economic sanctions to avoid severe penalties and asset freezes [7] - The "long-arm jurisdiction" of U.S. law poses significant challenges for Chinese enterprises, with many facing legal difficulties due to unfamiliarity with U.S. legal systems [8] - Key legal challenges include a lack of understanding of U.S. legal rules, external pressures from trade tensions, and high costs associated with legal compliance [9] Group 4: Supply Chain Restructuring Strategies - Companies are encouraged to adopt strategic supply chain restructuring to mitigate risks and enhance efficiency, with three main approaches suggested: relocating production to third countries, separating overseas and domestic operations, and establishing local production in the U.S. [10][11]

Group 1 - The current demand from foreign trade enterprises is strong, leading to a surge in inquiries and bookings for shipping to the US, with container prices increasing significantly [1][2] - As of May 15, the latest quotes for 40-foot containers are between $3,000 and $3,200 for the West Coast and $4,000 to $4,200 for the East Coast, reflecting a nearly 300% increase in booking volume for shipments from China to the US [2][3] - Shipping companies are adjusting their capacity distribution due to a mismatch between supply and demand, with expectations that the situation will not ease until mid-June [2][3] Group 2 - There is a concern among foreign trade enterprises about uncertainties in the market, prompting them to expedite shipments that were originally scheduled for later [3][5] - The traditional peak season for shipping is in July, but some industry experts believe that the peak may not arrive early and will remain stable [3] - The shipping rates are expected to rise significantly from May to July, with a notable increase in exports from China to the US anticipated [3][4] Group 3 - Companies are advised to focus on internal capabilities and balance short-term gains with risks, as the "rush for shipping" may not guarantee the highest profits [5] - The logistics and shipping industry is encouraged to invest in technology and innovation to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [5] - There is a recognition that China is becoming a manufacturing powerhouse across various sectors, with potential for growth in both high-tech and low-end industries [5]

导语 奥乐齐昆山首店的纪录不仅是品牌本土化的里程碑，更进一步凸显长三角县域市场作为 "消费新蓝海" 的潜力 —— 当品质与价格实现精准平衡，下沉市场 同样能孕育出零售创新的范本。 单日销售110万、客流10万+ 奥乐齐昆山首店创新纪录 5月10日，坐落于昆山金鹰国际购物中心A座的奥乐齐ALDI昆山首店盛大开业！ 首日销售额突破110万元，客流量超10万人次，创下该品牌在中国市场的单日销售新纪录，并超越此前无锡、苏州首店表现。（相关链接：德国"穷鬼超 市"勇闯苏锡！战绩如何？） 而这一成绩的背后，体现了奥乐齐在商品策略、供应链效率和本土化运营上的多重优势。 奥乐齐（ALDI）的"出沪"实验再次告捷，相比于无锡的单日100万，此次昆山单日110万更是爆发出县域消费的「洪荒之力」。 近年来在中国市场的下沉战略，尤其是对江苏苏州、无锡、昆山等地的布局，体现了其以"高质低价"为核心的本土化策略与差异化竞争思路。通过结合区 域消费特点、自有品牌优势及供应链效率，奥乐齐不仅快速渗透长三角市场，还以"9.9元"超值价格敏感型消费者，构建了独特的零售生态。 （1）下沉市场的精准选择：聚焦"强县域经济" 奥乐齐在江苏的"苏锡昆三 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade has shown resilience and growth despite the challenges posed by the US tariff war, with significant increases in both exports and imports in the first four months of the year [1][19]. Group 1: Trade Data Overview - In April, China's total goods trade reached 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports at 2.27 trillion yuan (up 9.3%) and imports at 1.57 trillion yuan (up 0.8%) [1]. - The overall foreign trade growth for the first four months was 2.4%, marking the second-highest level for the same period historically [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - High-tech products have been a significant driver of export growth, with exports of high-tech products reaching 1.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%, accounting for 18.1% of total exports [9][20]. - The diversification of markets has helped mitigate the impact of tariffs, with exports to the US dropping below 15% of total exports, while emerging markets contributed over 60% of the growth [19][20]. Group 3: Industry Innovations and Developments - Companies are leveraging advanced technologies, such as smart home products and automation, to enhance production efficiency and open new markets [3][12]. - The marine engineering and shipbuilding sectors have seen substantial growth, with exports from Shandong province exceeding 16 billion yuan, reflecting a shift towards a more integrated industrial ecosystem [11]. Group 4: Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises have emerged as a crucial force in sustaining foreign trade growth, with their exports accounting for 56.9% of total trade, growing by 6.8% in the first four months [18][20]. - The innovation capabilities of these enterprises have been bolstered by high tariffs, prompting accelerated research and development efforts [20].

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Companies - U.S. companies are facing significant profit erosion due to the Trump administration's comprehensive tariff increases, with some industries undergoing critical supply chain restructuring [1] - General Motors (GM) expects a $5 billion reduction in annual profits due to 25% tariffs on vehicles and parts imported from South Korea, Canada, and Mexico [1][2] - Ford anticipates a $1.5 billion decrease in EBITDA as a result of the tariffs, while Harley-Davidson projects a loss of $175 million [1][2] Group 2: Technology Sector Responses - Apple forecasts an increase in costs by $900 million in the current quarter due to tariffs, while Nvidia has set aside $5.5 billion to address rising import costs [2] - Meta Platforms has raised its annual capital expenditure by $7 billion, citing unexpected global equipment procurement costs [2] - Procter & Gamble estimates that tariffs will increase annual costs by $1 billion to $1.5 billion, planning to pass these costs onto consumers through price hikes [2] Group 3: Broader Industry Trends - The term "uncertainty" was mentioned over 6,000 times in corporate earnings calls, indicating heightened concerns among companies [5] - Companies like Microsoft and Amazon are taking measures such as stockpiling and accelerating procurement to mitigate tariff impacts, with Amazon reporting a $1 billion profit reduction in the first quarter [5] - Many manufacturers, including 3M and Danaher, are relocating production out of China to cope with tariff challenges, while Raytheon Technologies expects an $850 million reduction in operating profit due to tariffs [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook and Additional Concerns - Companies like Boeing are worried about potential EU tariffs, which could increase production costs for their 787 aircraft by $500 million [6] - DuPont anticipates $500 million in tariff costs, with a net loss of $60 million even after implementing cost mitigation strategies [6] - The full extent of tariff impacts may not yet be fully realized, as many companies, including Oracle and Johnson & Johnson, have yet to disclose detailed effects [6]

外 部 环 境 的 剧 烈 变 化 ， 也 让 众 多 外 贸 企 业 更 加 清 醒 地 认 识 到"打铁还需自身硬"的道理。 作者：郑晨烨 封图：图虫创意 深圳乐能创新技术有限公司（下称"乐能创新"）是一家综合性的跨境贸易企业。经过十余年的稳健 发展，乐能创新已成长为集产品设计研发、在线零售、B2B贸易、海外物流仓储四大板块为一体的 跨境贸易企业。 在美国近期滥施关税之后，作为中国外贸重镇的珠三角，这里的众多外向型企业是如何积极应对的 呢？ 就此，经济观察报记者近日走访了多家珠三角的外贸企业，与多位"一线出海人"进行了深入交 流…… 继续下单 东莞市佛爱娃工艺品有限公司董事长雍程翔的一位美国老客户近日照常下了一个订单，采购该公司 一款传统产品。 "他（客户）已经很清楚，他可能会付关税，但他还是下了（订单）。"雍程翔对经济观察报记者表 示，"而且价格还跟以前一样，没有调一分钱。" 佛爱娃是珠三角一家典型的外向型企业，主营各式工艺礼品开发、生产与出口，产品远销欧美等全 球六十余个国家和地区。 雍程翔不仅是佛爱娃工艺品的掌舵人，也是东莞市工贸发展促进会的会长，该会拥有超过1500家 会员企业。他认为，这位美国老 ...

在全球贸易的漫长链条中，有一种资源正悄然决定着未来技术命运的走向。那就是稀土元素，这些神秘的金属正攥在中国的手中，成为国际博弈中一张势 不可挡的王牌。这场关税战的战场似乎不仅仅限于传统的收支平衡，更折射出国家间对尖端科技控制权的争夺。而在这个博弈中，特斯拉的掌舵者马斯克 成了一个意外的焦点。 稀土：这场战役的主角美中关税大战打响后，形势急转直下，中国捏住了美国的"软肋"——稀土资源，成为了反制的利器。稀土，虽然名字里带 个"稀"字，但实际上并不稀少，只是提取它的过程，就像炼金术一般复杂，而中国正是这门技艺的头号玩家，掌握了全球90%的市场份额。 于是，当稀土出口受限，特斯拉的人形机器人"擎天柱"项目便如同被扼住了咽喉。想象一下，马斯克原本信心满满地准备在人形机器人领域大展拳脚，却 因为稀土磁体供应告急，不得不四处奔走。这不仅是特斯拉的困境，也是美国在高科技领域遇到的棘手难题。 马斯克的两难选择在这样的大环境中，马斯克别无选择，只能开始与中方接触，以求得出口的豁免。这里，有一个有趣的场景：马斯克承诺稀土磁体不会 被用于军事用途。他甚至开玩笑地拍着胸脯保证，只为人形机器人服务！但这一保证背后，是一次不容小觑的风险 ...

文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 2021年2月，美国德克萨斯州一场百年一遇的暴风雪，让全球汽车产业陷入瘫痪。当地三家关 键芯片工厂因停电停工，直接导致远在德国的大众汽车生产线被迫按下暂停键，日本丰田减产 40%。 点击按钮▲ 预约直播 这场"蝴蝶效应"的背后，是高度精密却也极度脆弱的全球供应链网络——一颗芯片的缺席，足 以让价值千亿的产业停摆。 而今天，供应链的震荡已超越偶然的天灾。地缘政治博弈、能源危机、AI技术革命、ESG浪 潮……多重变量交织下，供应链从"效率优先"的精密齿轮，演变为"安全与韧性"为核心的战略 棋盘。 麦肯锡数据显示，全球92%的企业正在重构供应链布局，"中国+1""近岸外包""数字孪生"成为 高频关键词。 当"全球化"与"逆全球化"两股力量激烈碰撞，供应链的生死局，实则是国家竞争力与企业生存 权的终极较量。 5月7日19:00将迎来 吴晓波频道十一周年纪念活动系列直播的第二场， "企业出海·供应链生死 局" 专场。 吴老师邀请了 上海交大质量发展研究院客座研究员林雪萍 ，以及 联想集团全球供应链转型 官、联晟智达CEO徐赫 来直播间做客。 林雪萍作为全球产业观察者，20多年专 ...