维埃拉表示，与鲁比奥的会晤以技术性议题为主，富有成效。据与会者称，会议期间并未深入讨论具体议题，但双方确定两国顾问团队将提出各自关切事 项，以供谈判时讨论。（总台记者 马天静 冯丽） 责编：卢思宇、姚凯红 △美国总统特朗普（左）巴西总统卢拉（右） 当地时间10月16日，巴西外交部长维埃拉在美国首都华盛顿特区与美国国务卿鲁比奥进行会晤，双方会晤时间持续1小时15分钟。巴西外长维埃拉在会后表 示，此次会谈富有成效。 维埃拉表示，已向美方强调巴西在关税问题立场。他还表示目前双方正在积极促成两国总统尽早会晤。此前有媒体报道称，两国总统的会晤可能于东盟峰会 期间进行，对此维埃拉表示时间地点目前尚未确定。 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储米兰：美联储官员必须平等对待所有政府政策，而不是只强调关税问题。 ...

来源：智昇财论 报告指出，原油市场自今年年初以来一直处于供应过剩状态。随着OPEC+国家的增产，中东地区的原 油产量上升，使原油过剩的产量进一步扩大。今年以来油价承压下行。 短期来看，油价略显悲观。但是油价降至55美元甚至更低，非欧佩克国家的原油将会受到生产成本的抑 制，产量将逐步下降，在没有更多产量增长的情况下，欧佩克可能会重新掌控原油市场。 技术面：日线收小阴线，日线级别，价格在相对低位运行。1小时级别，市场小幅整理，但仍是下降趋 势，价格仍在120日均线下方运行。今日下方关注57.20美元的支撑，上方关注59.50美元的压力。 美元指数：美国方面，昨晚美国财长贝森特表示，当前的美国经济增长，类似于19世纪末或20世纪90年 代，未来的经济具有韧性和可持续性。同时美国贸易逆差收窄支撑了近期美元小幅升值，今年美元的贬 值可能触底，与前期通过的税改法案相吻合。 欧元方面，法国持续的政治动荡加剧了财政不确定性，给欧元区的经济增长蒙上了一层阴影。同时欧央 行官员表示，法国不能只关注短期财政问题，必须找到切实可行的缩减赤字方案。 黄金方面：10月16日凌晨，特朗普表示，他认为美国已经陷入贸易战之中。在记者问到，如果 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD exchange rate is currently hovering just below the 1.1650 level, having moved away from recent lows of 1.1540, amidst a moderately bullish market environment [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Despite the escalation of the US-China trade war and ongoing volatility, the Euro/USD remains "heavy" and lacks a clear directional trend [3] - The possibility of the Euro breaking strongly above 1.20 still exists, but the current conditions do not support this [3] - The stock market continues to reach new highs, creating a significant paradox as investors remain cautious and avoid making large bets in the forex market [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark interest rate again is high, but the next steps remain unclear due to inflation concerns and potential escalation of tariff issues [3] - The US labor market continues to face challenges, which is one of the main issues currently [3] Group 3: Currency Trends - The dollar has regained dominance and tested the 1.15 level, confirming previous analyses that favored the dollar [3] - However, a significant rebound for the dollar may not be feasible at this time, as breaking below the 1.10 level seems unlikely [3] - The exchange rate is expected to continue consolidating around current levels in the coming weeks [3] Group 4: Upcoming Events - Notable speeches from Federal Reserve officials are on today's agenda, as there are no significant macroeconomic data releases [3] - The preference is to maintain current levels without significant changes [3]

Gold Market - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the U.S. labor market is weakening and signs of recession are emerging, with the asset balance sheet reduction process likely to end in October [1] - Following Powell's remarks, the probability of an interest rate cut in October rose from 92% to 97%, with market expectations largely priced in [1] - The implied volatility (fear index) approached 33, indicating significant market anxiety, but remains below the April level of 38; gold continues to be a favored safe-haven asset with potential for further price increases [1] - Technical analysis shows a bullish trend for gold, with support at $4150 and resistance at $4240 [1] Oil Market - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a potential surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in the global oil market by 2026, a significant increase from previous forecasts [2] - OPEC+ and its competitors are increasing production while global demand recovery remains weak, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Ukraine, may influence oil prices, with ongoing support expected from NATO and the EU [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for oil, with support at $57.50 and resistance at $59.30 [2] Dollar Index - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a temporary funding bill, resulting in a government shutdown, which may impact the dollar's strength [3] - Market expectations for a European Central Bank rate cut are rising, potentially leading to a weaker euro [3] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend for the dollar index, with support at 98.50 and resistance at 99.50 [4] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index closed positively, currently consolidating within the 24000-25200 range, with a focus on potential new highs [5] - Technical analysis indicates support at 24550 and resistance at 24950 [5] Copper Market - The copper market closed negatively, facing resistance at $5.12, with current prices forming a symmetrical triangle pattern [6] - Technical analysis shows support at $4.90 and resistance at $5.05 [6] Market Overview - On October 15, gold prices reached a new high of $4199 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Each shipping company has issued price adjustment notices, but there are no short - term conditions to support price increases. The futures market may fluctuate at a low level, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Instead, stop - loss should be set [2] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [5] - The main contract remains weak in the short term, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - loss should be set [6] - In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [6] - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach a high level, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 862.48 points, down 1.6% from the previous period [3] - On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 818.97 points, up 11.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 844.43 points, down 0.34% from the previous period [3] - On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1160.42 points, up 45.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76% from the previous period [3] - On October 10, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1014.78 points, down 6.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, down 8.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 777.77 points, down 5.7% from the previous period [3] Economic Indicators - In the eurozone, the preliminary September manufacturing PMI was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3] - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [4] - In the US, the preliminary September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary services PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4] Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The current spot price has slightly decreased [5] - On October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [5] - The situation in the Middle East is improving, but although the SCFI index has rebounded, the overall atmosphere is still bearish and the market is under pressure to decline [5] Geopolitical Situation - On October 10, according to Israel Army Radio, the Israeli Defense Forces will soon withdraw to the "preliminary withdrawal line" area as planned by President Trump. However, according to some media reports, the Israeli military's attacks on multiple areas in Gaza are still ongoing [7] - On October 9, Hamas senior official and chief negotiator Khalil al - Hayya announced the achievement of a cease - fire agreement, but he did not mention issues such as Hamas disarmament and the transfer of Gaza's management rights in Trump's "20 - point plan" [7] Contract Rules Adjustment - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lack of conditions to support price increases, with the futures market likely to fluctuate at a low level. Do not recommend further adding positions and set stop - losses [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, suggesting light - position participation or observation [5]. - In the short - term, the main contract remains weak while the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. In the long - term, each contract is advised to take profits when the price rises, and then wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before judging the subsequent direction [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 SCFIS, NCFI and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1031.8 points, a 1.4% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 862.48 points, a 1.6% decrease from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 818.97 points, an 11.50% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, an 11.39% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 844.43 points, a 0.34% decrease from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1160.42 points, a 45.90 - point increase from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1068 USD/TEU, a 9.9% increase from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1468 USD/FEU, a 10.76% increase from the previous period [3]. - On October 10, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1014.78 points, a 6.7% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, an 8.2% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 777.77 points, a 5.7% decrease from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities has accelerated [4]. - In September, the preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service industry PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in September was - 9.2, with an expected value of - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In September, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4]. 3.3 Market and Policy - related Information - The extension of Sino - US tariffs continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has decreased slightly [5]. - On October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, a 3.04% decline, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [5]. - The situation in the Middle East continues to improve. Although the SCFI index has rebounded, the overall atmosphere remains bearish, and the market is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [5]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. 3.4 Geopolitical Information - According to Israeli Army Radio on October 10, the Israeli Defense Forces will soon withdraw to the "preliminary withdrawal line" area as per US President Trump's plan. This withdrawal line is roughly the same as the control line of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip before the large - scale offensive on Gaza City in September. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas has come into effect, and the Israeli army has stopped military operations in the Gaza Strip. However, according to reports from Al - Jazeera and the Palestinian Holy City News Network, the Israeli army's attacks on multiple areas such as Gaza City and Khan Younis are still ongoing [7]. - According to CCTV News on the evening of October 9, Khalil al - Hayya, a senior Hamas official and chief negotiator, issued a statement announcing the achievement of a cease - fire agreement. This is the first public statement by the Hamas negotiation delegation since the first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza was reached. Khalil al - Hayya said that Hamas has received guarantees from mediators including the US. "The war in Gaza is over." Khalil al - Hayya mentioned the cease - fire, the withdrawal of the Israeli army, the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, the opening of border ports, and the exchange of Israeli detainees and Palestinian prisoners in the statement, but did not mention issues such as Hamas' disarmament and the transfer of Gaza's management rights in US President Trump's "20 - point plan" [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced its most severe sell-off in six months on October 10, with significant declines across major indices, particularly the Nasdaq and S&P 500, which recorded their largest single-day drops since April [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 878.82 points (1.9%), the Nasdaq down 820.20 points (3.56%), and the S&P 500 down 182.60 points (2.71%) [1] - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices marked their largest single-day declines since April [1] Group 2: Impact on Technology Stocks - Major technology stocks saw widespread declines, with Tesla falling over 5%, Amazon nearly 5%, and Apple and Meta dropping over 3% [1] - Microsoft and Google experienced declines of over 2%, while Nvidia fell by 4.89% [1] Group 3: Regulatory Issues - Qualcomm's stock dropped by 7.3% following news of an investigation by China's market regulator for allegedly failing to report its acquisition of Autotalks, which may violate antitrust laws [1] Group 4: Economic Commentary - Economist Dan Greenhaus noted that the recent tariff issues have forced the market to reassess its previous acceptance of the status quo, particularly regarding tariffs on major import sources [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced its most severe sell-off in six months on October 10, with all three major indices closing down significantly [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 878.82 points, a decline of 1.9%; the Nasdaq dropped by 820.20 points, down 3.56%; and the S&P 500 decreased by 182.60 points, a drop of 2.71% [1] - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 recorded their largest single-day declines since April [1] Group 2 - Major technology stocks saw widespread declines, with Tesla down over 5%, Amazon nearly 5%, and Apple and Meta down over 3% [1] - Microsoft and Google fell by more than 2%, while Nvidia dropped by 4.89% [1] - Qualcomm's stock price decreased by 7.3% following an announcement from the market regulatory authority regarding an investigation into its acquisition of Autotalks for failing to report the transaction as required by antitrust laws [1] Group 3 - Economist Dan Greenhaus commented that the recent tariff issues have forced the market to reassess its previous acceptance of the status quo, particularly in relation to tariffs imposed on major import sources [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining, and there may be a full - scale cease - fire. The far - month contracts have significantly declined, meeting the daily report's expectations. It is not recommended to add positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [5]. - The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are relatively strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Content Shipping Index Data - On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, down 6.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 876.82 points, down 4.8% from the previous period. On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period [3]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing boom level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities has accelerated [4]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's September composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's September Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4]. Market and Policy - Sino - US tariffs are extended, and the negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - On October 9, the main contract 2512 closed at 1688.0, down 1.81%, with a trading volume of 41,500 lots and an open interest of 24,200 lots, an increase of 3451 lots from the previous day [5]. - During the holiday, the SCFIS index continued to decline, and the situation in the India - Pakistan - Israel region signaled a relaxation. The market was affected, with strong bearish sentiment and wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract is advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to pull back and stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. Geopolitical News - On October 9, Palestinian President Abbas welcomed the efforts to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip, which includes cease - fire, Israeli troop withdrawal, and access to humanitarian aid. He hopes it will pave the way for a permanent political solution and end the illegal Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory [7]. - On the early morning of October 9, the Israeli Defense Forces stated that they had evaluated the latest situation overnight. The IDF Chief of Staff instructed the troops to prepare for various situations, welcomed the agreement on the return of the detained persons, and said that the army's deployment would be implemented according to political - level instructions and the requirements of relevant stages of the agreement [7].