几位美联储官员最近表示愿意采取短期宽松政策，这加强了市场对美联储可能在12月会议上再次降息25个基点的预期。 这一前景继续对美元构成结构性压力，有助于限制白银的大幅回调。 与此同时，在对美联储宽松政策信心增强的推动下，全球股市人气改善，在一定程度上减少了对避险资产的需求。然 而，这种影响被持续存在的地缘政治风险部分抵消。这令投资者保持适度谨慎，间接支撑了白银。 美元指数近期下跌后趋于稳定，略高于本周低点。最近美国公布的经济数据，包括喜忧参半的制造业数据、劳动力市场 走软的迹象和消费势头减弱，强化了对美国经济放缓的预期。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为86.9%，维持利率不变的概率为13.1%。美联储到明年1月累计 降息25个基点的概率为67.3%，维持利率不变的概率为9.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为23.1%。 今日周五(11月28日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于53.81一线上方，今日开盘于53.35美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银 暂报54.01美元/盎司，上涨1.07%，最高触及54.22美元/盎司，最低下探53.30美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线 偏向震荡走势。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market shows mixed trends across various commodities, with geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and policy expectations influencing prices. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation and price - influencing factors, and the overall market lacks a unified trend [2][4][21] - For financial products such as stocks and bonds, geopolitical and macro - economic factors also play important roles, and short - term caution is recommended [48][49] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Night - time international oil prices rose slightly. Market expectations for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict are still wavering. OPEC may maintain its production policy, and the increasing expectation of a December Fed rate cut boosts oil prices [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market showed a differentiated performance overnight. High - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly with the cost of crude oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil was weak. In the future, the overall contradiction is limited, with high - sulfur fuel oil affected by geopolitical risks and low - sulfur fuel oil having sufficient supply [22] - **Asphalt**: The commercial inventory of asphalt is decreasing faster. The December production plan is lower year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand will decline seasonally, and the market is expected to be loose at the end of the year, putting pressure on prices [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals showed a volatile performance. The uncertainty of interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects led to high - level oscillations. On the first day of the listing of platinum futures, the price fluctuated sharply, and attention should be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The average copper price this year was strong. Next year, the growth rate gap between supply and demand may narrow, and the price increase will be supported by factors such as liquidity and demand for green carbon and intelligent computing. Short - term, a small amount of chasing up can be attempted [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The industry has limited contradictions, and the price will mainly oscillate [5] - **Zinc**: Overseas funds have a strong influence. The domestic ore supply is tightening, and the bottom support is strong, but the consumption outlook is under pressure. The short - term price will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the decline of the external market has slowed down. The domestic supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price will oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated, and the market sentiment was cold. The cost support of stainless steel continued to decline, and the price is recommended to be shorted on rebounds [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin turned down. Shanghai tin broke through 300,000 yuan and then adjusted. Pay attention to the inventory changes this week. It is recommended to short on rallies and hedge risks with call options [11] - **Ferroalloys**: - **Silicon Manganese**: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The production is at a relatively high level, the inventory is slowly increasing, and the bottom support is expected to move down [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The demand has resilience, the supply is at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea futures price continued to rise, and the spot market rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the supply - demand surplus pattern is expected to continue [24] - **Methanol**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term can consider unilateral long or positive spread trading, but the high inventory in ports may suppress the price increase [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The US gasoline crack spread has weakened. The domestic device load has been slightly adjusted down, and the price will oscillate [26] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The supply - demand structure has been slightly improved, the profit has been repaired, and the price will continue to oscillate [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene in Shandong is slightly tight, and the price has risen, but the cost pressure on downstream products may limit the increase. The supply of polyethylene is stable, and the demand is weakening [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating. The export situation may improve, and the price may stop falling and stabilize. Caustic soda is also oscillating, with high inventory and weak demand [29] - **PX & PTA**: The short - term supply - demand of PX is weakening, but the medium - term is expected to be strong. PTA is driven by cost, and the processing margin is expected to be repaired [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output has decreased, and the supply has improved marginally, but the medium - term is still weak [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - grade chip demand is weakening, and the cost is the main driving factor [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the supply is loose. Pay attention to the signing and implementation of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement and South American weather [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The overseas supply - demand of palm oil is weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. Soybean oil is affected by the price of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the customs clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. The external market has a short - term boost to rapeseed meal, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [38] - **Corn**: The north port corn price is firm, and the supply and transportation of northeast corn are a concern. The downstream inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the northeast [40] - **Livestock & Poultry Products**: - **Hogs**: The number of fertile sows has decreased, and the industry is reducing production capacity. The short - term price is weak, and the long - term may form a double - bottom pattern [41] - **Eggs**: The market is trading on the expectation of a decline in future inventory. The long - term supply pressure is expected to ease, and the fundamentals are expected to improve [42] - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: US cotton has rebounded. The domestic cotton cost provides support, and the sales progress is fast. The cotton yarn market is weak, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient. The expected sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is relatively good, and attention should be paid to the production situation [44] - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term price is strong, but the long - term may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the de - stocking situation [45] - **Wood**: The futures price is oscillating. The low inventory provides support, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price has continued to fall. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, the supply is loose, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) shows a differentiated trend. The far - month contract is under pressure from the resumption of navigation expectations, and the near - month contract is dragged down by the weak spot market. Consider the reverse spread strategy for near - month contracts [21] - **Financial Products**: - **Stock Index**: The stock market closed down, and the futures index also fell. Geopolitical and macro - economic factors have an impact. A wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures closed down, and the market is trading lightly. The price will oscillate weakly in the range, and cautious operation is recommended [49]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations with a strong upward bias, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties [2][4][6]. Fundamental Analysis - Strong expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts: The CME FedWatch tool indicates over 85% probability for a rate cut in December, with continued expectations for cuts through 2026 due to slowing U.S. economic growth and the potential successor to the Fed chair advocating for easing [2]. - Economic uncertainty and mixed consumer and investment demand: Online sales during Thanksgiving increased by 6% year-on-year, but overall holiday season sales growth slowed to 2.1%, reflecting a blend of weak consumer sentiment and economic resilience. This low growth environment may suppress inflation, creating conditions for rate cuts. Additionally, India's gold imports surged by 200% in October, indicating strong investment demand, supported by ongoing central bank purchases globally [2]. - Geopolitical risks add complexity: Progress in Ukraine peace talks faces core disagreements, and the intertwining of geopolitical uncertainty with expectations of over 90 basis points of Fed rate cuts in the next year and a half enhances gold's appeal as a safe haven [2]. Technical Analysis - Daily level: Gold showed a consolidating trend with a small bearish candle. The price broke out of a previous triangular consolidation pattern, with key support at the 5-day moving average around 4140-4145. If this support is breached, attention will shift to the 10-day moving average near 4105, while resistance is focused on the critical level of 4245 [4]. - Four-hour level: The overall trend remains unchanged, with a focus on the potential end of the fifth wave of the C-2-c structure. Recent price action has shown high-level fluctuations, with a trendline breakout. Short-term resistance is at 4173/4174, and if surpassed, the next focus will be on 4192/4193. Key support is identified at 4109, which, if broken, may indicate the completion of the C-2 wave and a potential shift to a C-3 downward phase [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the gold market is influenced by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases, which support the rise in precious metals prices [4]. - As of November 27, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 941.00 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 6.16 yuan per gram compared to the futures main price of 947.16 yuan per gram [3]. - The international gold price increased by 0.79%, closing at 4162.35 USD per ounce, with a peak of 4173 USD [5]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report indicates that economic activity has remained stable, with some regions reporting slight declines and others slight growth, suggesting a risk of economic slowdown in the coming months [3]. - The U.S. job market shows improvement, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest since mid-April, which is below the expected 225,000 [3]. - The medium to long-term bullish trend in gold prices is expected to continue, with potential to rise above 4200 USD after breaking previous resistance levels [6].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has led to a significant price increase, with the market showing a strong upward trend despite potential risks from geopolitical factors and supply chain disruptions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day, palladium futures opened significantly higher, reaching a peak of 409.85 yuan and a low of 368.05 yuan, with a price increase of 2.97% [1]. - The current palladium futures market is characterized by a strong upward trend, indicating robust market performance [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Short-term palladium supply remains tight, with inventories at multi-year lows, and geopolitical risks, particularly from Russia, which accounts for over 40% of global supply, continue to pose challenges [1]. - The demand for palladium is influenced by the automotive sector's shift towards electrification, which may impact palladium's demand compared to platinum [2]. - Despite a general slowdown in demand due to high palladium prices, favorable factors such as low inventory and potential investment inflows are expected to support prices in the short term [2]. Group 3: Price Forecasts - The price of palladium is projected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the performance of other precious metals like gold and silver, which have seen significant price increases this year [2]. - However, the long-term outlook for high palladium prices may be challenged by declining industrial demand and the overall trend of reduced demand for gasoline vehicles [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is rising, which may support precious metal prices. Global central banks are continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks remain unresolved, all of which are factors that could support precious metal prices [1]. - The supply - demand outlook for platinum from 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, and with the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, platinum prices may fluctuate upwards [1]. - The global palladium supply - demand outlook from 2025 - 2026 may shift from tight to loose, but due to the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, palladium prices may be cautiously strong [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Gold and Silver - **Price and Volume Data**: For Shanghai gold futures, the closing price on 2025 - 11 - 26 was 946.72, with a change of 14.16 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 341,225. For spot Shanghai gold T + D, the closing price was 941.17, and the trading volume was 57,208. For international gold, the closing price of COMEX futures active contract was 4126.30, and the closing price of London gold spot was 4072.50. Similar data is provided for silver [1]. - **Important Information**: The Fed's Beige Book shows little economic change during the government - shutdown period, with tariff pressure squeezing corporate profits and AI suppressing some recruitment demand. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax - increase plan, and the official budget watchdog leaked the budget [1]. - **Multi - and Short - Logic**: The negative ADP private - sector weekly new employment in the US and some Fed officials' support for a December rate cut have increased the expectation of a December rate cut. Japan's economic stimulus plan may increase its debt burden, and the UK's fiscal situation has changed, all of which may support precious metal prices [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Investors should mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 870 - 890 and the resistance level around 960 - 1000. Similar levels are provided for silver [1]. Platinum - **Multi - and Short - Logic**: High mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging production equipment affect platinum production, while demand from industries such as hydrogen production and glass fiber is expected to be positive. The supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, and combined with the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, platinum prices may fluctuate upwards [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term, or pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on platinum and short on palladium". For London platinum prices, pay attention to the support level around 1260 - 1460 and the resistance level around 1800 - 2000. For domestic platinum prices, pay attention to the support level around 325 - 377 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1]. Palladium - **Multi - and Short - Logic**: Supply is affected by mining and other issues, but the supply of recycled palladium is expected to increase. Demand from the automotive sector is expected to decline, while demand from industrial and medical fields has low elasticity. The global palladium supply - demand outlook from 2025 - 2026 may shift from tight to loose, but due to the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, palladium prices may be cautiously strong [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term. For London palladium prices, pay attention to the support level around 1080 - 1280 and the resistance level around 1600 - 1800. For domestic palladium prices, pay attention to the support level around 320 - 350 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: With dovish Fed statements and reduced geopolitical risks, along with tight copper raw - material supply and strong downstream demand, copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 86,400 - 88,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10,850 - 11,100 dollars/ton [5]. - **Aluminum**: Supported by low global aluminum ingot inventories and supply disruptions, aluminum prices are likely to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,450 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,820 - 2,890 dollars/ton [8]. - **Lead**: With increasing lead supply and weakening exports of lead - acid batteries, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10]. - **Zinc**: Despite short - term tightness in zinc ore due to winter stockpiling, the zinc industry remains in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [12]. - **Tin**: The short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance. Considering the high - price suppression of consumption and the marginal alleviation of ore shortages, tin prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range for the domestic main contract being 280,000 - 310,000 yuan/ton and for LME tin being 37,000 - 39,000 dollars/ton [14]. - **Nickel**: With strong supply pressure and weak demand, nickel prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish, and the reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to the divergence between improving fundamentals and concerns about off - season demand, along with large price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range for the GFEX lithium carbonate 2605 contract being 93,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton [21]. - **Alumina**: With the recovery of overseas ore shipments and over - capacity in the smelting end, but prices approaching the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [24]. - **Stainless Steel**: Although the spot market has seen a slight price increase and improved trading, due to weak demand in related fields, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [27]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by cost and supply - side policies, but with average demand, its price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [29]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight US stocks rose, the offshore RMB strengthened, and copper prices oscillated upwards. LME copper inventory decreased by 75 tons to 156,500 tons, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 40,000 tons. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed to less than 800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: With dovish Fed statements, reduced geopolitical risks, tight copper raw - material supply, and strong downstream demand, copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Supported by overseas supply disruption news, aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 542,000 tons, and domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline [7]. - **Strategy**: With low global aluminum ingot inventories and supply disruptions, aluminum prices are likely to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.13% to 17,063 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 0.5 to 1,985.5 dollars/ton. Domestic lead ingot inventories rose from a low level, and LME lead inventories increased [9]. - **Strategy**: With increasing lead supply and weakening exports of lead - acid batteries, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index fell 0.03% to 22,362 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 2 to 3,007.5 dollars/ton. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Despite short - term tightness in zinc ore due to winter stockpiling, the zinc industry remains in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 26, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 0.89% to 298,500 yuan/ton. Tin smelter production in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable at a high level, but raw - material supply was tight. Tin demand in emerging fields provided support, and social inventory increased by 311 tons to 8,245 tons [13]. - **Strategy**: The short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance. Considering the high - price suppression of consumption and the marginal alleviation of ore shortages, tin prices are expected to oscillate [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded. The SHFE nickel main contract rose 0.95% to 117,260 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel - iron prices continued to fall [16]. - **Strategy**: With strong supply pressure and weak demand, nickel prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose 2.50% to 94,469 yuan. The LC2605 contract fell 1.03% to 96,340 yuan [20]. - **Strategy**: Due to the divergence between improving fundamentals and concerns about off - season demand, along with large price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On November 26, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.22% to 2,747 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.34 to 257,900 tons [23]. - **Strategy**: With the recovery of overseas ore shipments and over - capacity in the smelting end, but prices approaching the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract rose 0.40% to 12,455 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some markets increased, and social inventory decreased to 1.0717 million tons [26]. - **Strategy**: Although the spot market has seen a slight price increase and improved trading, due to weak demand in related fields, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2601 contract of cast aluminum alloy fell 0.1% to 20,695 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions rebounded, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly [29]. - **Strategy**: Supported by cost and supply - side policies, but with average demand, its price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [29].

Core Insights - The launch of platinum and palladium futures on the domestic market is seen as a significant addition to the new energy metal futures sector, with the first contracts being reasonably priced compared to market expectations [2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The first contracts for platinum and palladium futures were priced slightly above market expectations but aligned with the domestic price structure [2]. - The macroeconomic environment is supportive due to the Federal Reserve's dovish signals, with an 80% probability of a rate cut in December, which may bolster market sentiment [2]. - Geopolitical developments, such as progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, could reduce risk appetite and exert downward pressure on prices [2]. Group 2: Price Expectations - Initial price ranges for platinum futures are expected to be between 385 to 425 CNY per gram, while palladium futures are anticipated to range from 345 to 385 CNY per gram on their first trading day [2]. - Analysts predict that the futures for platinum and palladium may exhibit a contango structure, influenced primarily by market liquidity levels [4]. - The initial trading price range for PT2606 is projected to be 390 to 420 CNY per gram, and for PD2606, it is expected to be 340 to 370 CNY per gram [4]. Group 3: Market Performance - On the opening day of trading, domestic main contracts showed mixed performance, with platinum rising nearly 9% and other commodities like silver and glass also seeing gains [3]. - Conversely, some contracts, including lithium carbonate and paper pulp, experienced declines of nearly 1% [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After recent continuous declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is still the market's main line. The medium - to long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, maintaining an overall volatile trend. Pay attention to the impact of stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased. The overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the further driving force will be released in December. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends of volatility, strength, or weakness. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market News**: Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued a document to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand; the Cyberspace Administration of China strengthened the management of financial "self - media" and MCN accounts; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the listing benchmark prices of platinum and palladium futures; US durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December; the winning yields of the Ministry of Finance's 2 - period treasury bonds were lower than the ChinaBond valuations. The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth rate may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the fourth quarter, and pay attention to stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold rose 0.37%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.73%. COMEX gold and silver prices are also provided. A Fed governor made dovish remarks, and the market expects an 82.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December [8]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overnight, US stocks rose, and the offshore RMB strengthened. LME copper prices increased, and domestic copper inventories and premiums showed certain changes [11]. - **Strategy**: Fed officials' dovish remarks increase the probability of a December interest - rate cut. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and downstream demand is strong. Copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Supported by overseas supply disruption news, aluminum prices rose. LME and domestic aluminum inventories and premiums changed [13]. - **Strategy**: Global aluminum inventories are low, and supply disruptions support prices. Although the downstream is entering the off - season, aluminum prices may strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc index prices decreased slightly. LME and domestic zinc inventories and basis are provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc ore imports decreased in October, and the supply of zinc ore is tight during the winter stockpiling period. However, in the long - term, the zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: On Wednesday, Shanghai lead index prices rose slightly. LME and domestic lead inventories and basis are provided [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is increasing, while the demand for lead - acid batteries is declining. Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: On Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded. Spot prices and cost factors are provided [18]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish. Wait for the nickel - iron price to stabilize [18]. Tin - **Market News**: On November 26, Shanghai tin prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory information are provided [19]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. Considering the high - price suppression of consumption and the marginal improvement of ore shortages, tin prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, while the futures price of LC2605 decreased [21]. - **Strategy**: The improvement of fundamentals boosts bullish sentiment, but there are concerns about off - season demand. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Alumina - **Market News**: On November 26, the alumina index decreased. Information on basis, overseas prices, and inventory is provided [22]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore shipments are expected to increase, and the alumina smelting capacity is over - supplied. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract price rose. Spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory information are provided [24]. - **Strategy**: The spot market price rose slightly, but the demand is affected by the real - estate market. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated. Information on contract prices, inventory, and demand is provided [26]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts decreased. Information on spot prices, registered warrants, and inventory is provided [29]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is in the off - season, and the export is affected by anti - dumping duties. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term but may improve with policy implementation [30]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Yesterday, the iron - ore main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and inventory is provided [31]. - **Strategy**: Overseas iron - ore shipments decreased, and the demand for iron ore is stable. The overall inventory is high, and the price is expected to oscillate [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the glass main contract price rose slightly. Information on spot prices, inventory, and positions is provided [33]. - **Strategy**: The supply of glass may decrease in December, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [34]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the soda - ash main contract price decreased. Information on spot prices, inventory, and positions is provided [35]. - **Strategy**: The supply of soda ash is in excess, and the demand is divided. The price is expected to be weak [35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: On November 26, the prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts decreased. Information on spot prices, basis, and price trends is provided [36]. - **Strategy**: The market risk appetite has weakened, and the prices of ferrous alloys have decreased. However, with the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, there may be a turning point. It is recommended to pay attention to market sentiment [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: Yesterday, the industrial - silicon main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and production is provided [40]. - **Strategy**: The production of industrial silicon is decreasing, and the demand is affected by the polysilicon and organic - silicon industries. The price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: Yesterday, the polysilicon main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and production is provided [43]. - **Strategy**: The production of polysilicon is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to platform company progress and price feedback [44]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices rebounded. Thailand's rubber - producing areas were affected by floods, and the inventory of exchange - traded RU was low. The opinions of bulls and bears are different [46]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take a bullish short - term strategy and partially build positions for hedging [50]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: INE crude - oil futures prices decreased. The inventory of refined oil products in the Fujairah port increased [51]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [52]. Methanol - **Market News**: The prices of methanol in different regions and the main contract increased. Information on basis and spread is provided [53]. - **Strategy**: The positive impact of Iranian device shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory pattern remains. It is recommended to wait and see [53]. Urea - **Market News**: The prices of urea in different regions and the main contract changed. Information on basis and spread is provided [54]. - **Strategy**: The urea price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply is high, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to buy on dips [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price of styrene rose. Information on basis, spread, and supply - demand is provided [56]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the demand is in the seasonal peak. The price may stop falling [57]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC01 contract price decreased. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [58]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PVC is in excess, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The EG01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease in December, but the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA may increase, and the demand is affected by inventory and the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space [64]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The PX01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [65]. - **Strategy**: The load of PX is high, and the downstream PTA is in maintenance. PX may accumulate inventory in November, and the valuation may be adjusted downward [66]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The futures and spot prices of PE decreased. Information on basis, inventory, and supply - demand is provided [67]. - **Strategy**: The price of PE is expected to be volatile at a low level. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the seasonal peak [68]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The futures and spot prices of PP decreased. Information on basis, inventory, and supply - demand is provided [69]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand is in the seasonal low. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [70]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market News**: Yesterday, domestic hog prices mostly decreased. The supply is high, and the demand is weak [72]. - **Strategy**: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [73]. Eggs - **Market News**: Yesterday, the national egg prices were mostly stable. The supply and demand are in a stalemate [74]. - **Strategy**: The spot price of eggs has not followed the futures price increase. The price is expected to be oscillating in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybean prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the meal inventory is large [76]. - **Strategy**: The global soybean supply has decreased, and the import cost has a bottom support. The meal price is expected to oscillate [77]. Oils - **Market News**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production increased. The domestic oil inventory may decrease in the future [78]. - **Strategy**: The high production of palm oil suppresses the price. It is recommended to take an oscillating view and turn bullish if production decreases [79]. Sugar - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated. The production of sugar in Brazil and India is expected to increase [81]. - **Strategy**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in excess, and the international sugar price may be weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [82]. Cotton - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The global cotton production is expected to increase [83]. - **Strategy**: The demand for cotton is not too bad after the peak season, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [84].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in gold prices this year, which has increased by over 60%, and explores the potential for continued growth in gold prices next year, supported by various economic factors and expert opinions [1][11]. Group 1: Expert Opinions on Gold - Lin Qichao, the chief economist at Cathay United Bank, views gold as a long-term asset with upward potential [3]. - He provides three key reasons for a bullish outlook on gold prices [4]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Price Increase - The first factor is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which lower U.S. Treasury yields and weaken the dollar, enhancing gold's appeal as a "zero-yield safe-haven asset" [6]. - The second factor is the increasing global money supply, leading to currency debasement, which drives demand for tangible assets like gold [7]. - The third factor is geopolitical risks, which historically support gold as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties [9]. Group 3: Price Predictions from Investment Banks - Current spot gold prices have reached $4,162 [11]. - Major Wall Street investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts for next year, with Bank of America predicting $5,000, Deutsche Bank adjusting its forecast to a range of $4,450 to $4,950, UBS targeting $4,500, and Goldman Sachs estimating $4,900, while JPMorgan Chase sets a high estimate of $5,062 [12].