黄金周四（8月21日）早盘在3352附近受阻后开始震荡下跌，欧盘最低跌至3325附近，随后又快速上涨起来，美盘最高上涨3348附近后回落震荡，日线收出 一根带有下影线的阴线。 一、基本面 1、美联储政策：分歧加剧+降息预期降温 鹰派/谨慎派：亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克（预计今年仅降息1次，强调政策公信力）、堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（无急于降息必要，通胀接近3%）、芝加 哥联储主席古尔斯比（警惕服务业通胀上升）、克利夫兰联储主席哈马克（现在非降息时机）。 温和派：波士顿联储主席柯林斯（对9月降息持开放态度，预计通胀2026年回落）。 市场预期调整：9月降息概率从一周前92%降至74%，年底累计降息幅度预期从54个基点下调至49个基点，主因近期通胀"偏热"及官员谨慎表态。 2、美国经济数据：好坏参半，黄金陷入两难 上周初请失业金人数大幅增加（近三个月最大增幅）、费城联储8月制造业调查显示中大西洋地区活动疲软、续请失业金人数升至近四年高位，强化劳动力 市场下行风险，提振黄金避险需求。 7月成屋销售意外上升、8月企业活动加速、制造业订单创18个月新高，支撑美元和美债收益率上涨，压制金价。 总体来看，美国经济处于"过渡期" ...

根据PrimeMarketTerminal数据,交易员认为9月降息25个基点的概率高达85%。然而,美元指数小幅反弹至 98.27,美国10年期国债收益率回落至4.30%,显示投资者在降息预期与经济不确定性之间摇摆,美元的阶段 性走强,成为压制金价上行的重要因素。 关税摩擦叠加通胀隐忧 临时停火难掩深层矛盾 在国际调解推动下,哈马斯近日宣布接受一项为期60天的临时停火协议,以释放10名人质换取以色列有限 让步,该协议被视为美国特使威特科夫方案的修改版,旨在短期内缓解加沙的人道主义压力。尽管市场因 此情绪稍有缓和,金价短线出现回调,但分析人士普遍认为,这更像是"喘息"而非"和解",以色列方面依旧坚 持"一揽子解决方案",即归还全部人质、哈马斯解除武装并放弃对加沙的控制权,否则战事难以结束,随着 以色列推进接管加沙城的计划,冲突随时可能再度升级,长期风险依然高企。 国内压力与国际博弈交织 据民调显示,约八成以色列民众支持以换取人质释放为条件结束战争,大规模示威活动呼吁政府尽快停战, 使内塔尼亚胡在强硬与妥协之间左右为难,同时,美国总统特朗普在Truth Social发文强调"必须彻底击溃哈 马斯",进一步加大以色 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年08月21日16时49分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收涨0.30%，沪银主力收涨0.63%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，俄乌会谈开启，避险需 求回落；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，美俄领导人时隔六年首次会晤，特朗 普称"富有成效"，承诺为乌克兰安全提供保障。白宫官员称特朗普已签署行政令，美中关税休战期再延90天。③货币属性方 面，美联储会议记录显示，只有两位决策者支持在7月会议上降息。美国7月零售销售强劲增长，美国7月批发价格跳涨，美联储降 息路线图增添变数。美国7月PPI环比上涨0.9%，创三年来最大环比涨幅。美国7月CPI通胀温和，CPI符合预期但核心CPI同比上涨 3.1%，高于前值2.9%。目前市场预期美联储9月降息概率从非农前40%左右快速飙升至80%以上，且年内降息次数预期从1次涨至 2到3次。美元指数和美债收益率遇阻反弹；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短 期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东兴证券发布研报称，美国石油产品供应量增加，原油出口量有所减少。截至8月8 日，Brent、WTI、ESPO原油现货价下降。7月，OPEC、国内原油现货价上涨。截至8月8日，美国，炼 油厂可运营产能利用率上涨；成品车用汽油及石油产品的供应量环比上升；成品车用汽油库存量月环比 下降。7月，美国原油进口数量月环比上升；出口数量环比下降；中国原油进口数量环比下降。 东兴证券主要观点如下： 原油价格下降 截至8月8日，Brent原油期货结算价和现货价分别为66.59美元/桶和6.43美元/桶，环比下降2.99%和 5.36%；WTI原油期货结算价和现货价格分别为63.88美元/桶、63.88美元/桶，环比分别降4.04%、 6.58%；ESPO原油现货价格为62.49美元/桶，环比下降4.23%。7月，OPEC原油现货价格为70.97美元/ 桶，环比上涨1.78%；中国原油现货月度均价(大庆)为65.59美元/桶，环比下降0.80%，中国原油现货月 度均价(南海)为61.50美元/桶，环比上涨0.15%，中国原油现货月度均价(胜利)为67.67美元/桶，环比上涨 0.51%。 美国石油产品供应量增 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the oil and petrochemical sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - As of August 8, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices have decreased, while OPEC and domestic crude oil prices have increased in July [3][14]. - U.S. refinery utilization rates have risen, and the supply of finished gasoline and petroleum products has increased, while gasoline inventories have decreased month-over-month [2][3]. - U.S. crude oil imports have increased month-over-month, while exports have decreased; in contrast, China's crude oil imports have declined significantly, but exports have surged [2][44][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Crude Oil Prices - Brent crude futures settled at $66.59 per barrel, down 2.99% month-over-month; WTI crude futures settled at $63.88 per barrel, down 4.04% [8][9]. - OPEC crude prices increased to $70.97 per barrel in July, up 1.78% month-over-month [14]. 2. Supply and Demand - OPEC crude oil production increased to 27,543 thousand barrels per day in July, up 1.13% month-over-month [21]. - U.S. refinery crude oil production decreased slightly to 17.24 million barrels per day, down 0.06% month-over-month but up 1.71% year-over-year [24]. 3. Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories rose to 1,670,549 thousand barrels, up 0.72% month-over-month [32]. - U.S. gasoline inventories decreased to 226,290 thousand barrels, down 2.82% month-over-month [32]. 4. Imports and Exports - U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6,214.25 thousand barrels per day in July, up 1.61% month-over-month [44]. - China's crude oil imports fell to 4,720,000 tons, down 5.39% month-over-month, while exports increased significantly [44][48].

Group 1: Financial Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestically, although the current economic growth shows a marginal slowdown, there's no need for excessive worry. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and if economic data continues to decline, relevant policies may be further strengthened. Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and policy signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within 7.15 - 7.23 in the short - term, with the area below 7.20 likely to be the main operating range. The US dollar index may remain volatile in the short - term, awaiting further guidance from the Jackson Hole Meeting [4]. - For stock indices, short - term market sentiment is still fluctuating, and it is expected to hover near the pressure line for some time. It is advisable to hold positions and use options for hedging [7]. - For treasury bonds, the bond market is still moving in tandem with the stock market, and the trading sentiment is weak. Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can make small - scale purchases [8]. - For container shipping, the EC is likely to continue its oscillating trend, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [11]. Summary by Directory Macro - China's August LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. The Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals, and Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1793 on the previous trading day, up 27 basis points. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials thought inflation risk was higher than employment risk [3]. Stock Indices - Yesterday, stock indices rose with reduced volume, and small and medium - cap stocks were relatively strong. Overnight, US stocks continued to fall, and the US dollar index declined. Foreign capital may continue to flow into A - shares, but risk appetite may decline [7]. Treasury Bonds - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher and then fluctuated, and weakened in the afternoon due to the stock market hitting a new high. The central bank announced an additional 100 billion yuan in re - loans for agriculture and small businesses [8]. Container Shipping - Yesterday, the container shipping index (European line) futures prices first oscillated slightly downward and then rebounded. Some new sailings of MSK had slightly higher spot cabin quotes [9]. Group 2: Commodities Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish. Technically, the short - term sentiment has improved, and it is advisable to buy on dips [14]. - For copper, it may continue to oscillate in the short - term, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [17]. - For aluminum, it is expected to oscillate; for alumina, it may oscillate weakly; for cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to oscillate. The price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum can be considered for arbitrage [19]. - For zinc, it is mainly expected to oscillate in the short - term [22]. - For nickel and stainless steel, they declined due to the impact of the broader market. They are affected by macro factors and the fundamentals of the industry [23]. - For tin, it is mainly expected to oscillate [25]. - For lithium carbonate, the price may rebound temporarily and then enter a weakening channel. In the long - term, it is advisable to short far - month futures contracts on rallies [26]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the demand for industrial silicon is expected to increase, and both are expected to oscillate strongly in the future [28]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to high overseas inventory [30]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - On Wednesday, the precious metals market stopped falling and rebounded. The CME "FedWatch" data showed the probabilities of Fed interest rate decisions in September, October, and December. It is advisable to buy on dips for gold and silver [12][13][14]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index declined slightly on Wednesday. First Quantum's Kansanshi copper mine expansion project is expected to significantly increase copper production [16]. Aluminum Industry Chain - The US expanded the scope of tariffs on aluminum imports. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate between 20300 - 20800. Alumina is in a state of oversupply, and cast aluminum alloy has cost support [18][19]. Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is advisable to consider an internal - external reverse arbitrage [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The main contracts of nickel and stainless steel declined. Spot prices and inventory data are provided, and the market is affected by the broader market and industry fundamentals [23]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index declined slightly on Wednesday. In July, China's refined tin imports increased and exports decreased. The delay in Myanmar's tin mine resumption has supported tin prices [24]. Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, the lithium carbonate futures main contract limit - downed. The lithium ore market sentiment slowed down, and the lithium salt market shipments increased. The price may rebound temporarily and then weaken [25][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. The government held a photovoltaic industry symposium. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to increase, and both are expected to oscillate strongly [27][28]. Lead - The previous trading day, lead prices were weak due to a significant increase in LME inventory. The supply and demand of lead are in a stalemate, and it is expected to oscillate [30]. Group 3: Black Metals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For steel products, the short - term market has stopped falling and stabilized, but the fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [34]. - For iron ore, it is expected to oscillate with reduced volatility, and its price may be stronger than that of steel products in the short - term [37]. - For coking coal and coke, the market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and investors should pay attention to risk prevention [40]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply pressure is increasing, and there is a possibility of a shift from inventory reduction to inventory accumulation [42]. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Yesterday, steel product prices stopped falling and rebounded. Coal mines are resuming production, and Tangshan's production restriction intensity has increased. The supply of steel products is increasing while the demand is decreasing [32][33]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market was generally weak, but rebounded in the afternoon. Steel production has been suppressed, and the iron ore price may oscillate [35][37]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal's static supply - demand is in a tight balance, and coke's supply has perturbation factors. The market may fluctuate with sentiment, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventories [38][40]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is increasing, and the demand has no obvious improvement. The market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality [41]. Group 4: Energy and Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the overnight market rose slightly, but it will continue to adjust weakly in the short - term. The medium - term risk of a downward break is increasing [44]. - For LPG, the fundamentals remain loose, and the market is affected by news. It is in a state of oscillation [46]. - For PX - PTA, it is advisable to buy on dips to expand the processing margin. In the medium - term, PTA's low processing margin will drive changes [48]. - For MEG, it is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and it is advisable to buy on dips near the cost. In the long - term, the performance of the polyester peak season needs to be observed [51]. - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near future, and future attention should be paid to demand and cost changes [53]. - For PE, the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [55]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene may oscillate in the short - term, and for styrene, it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [56][58]. - For fuel oil, the short - term driving force of domestic FU is downward [60]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [61]. - For asphalt, the unilateral price is weakly retracting, and the peak season shows no excessive performance. Future attention should be paid to specific measures for the asphalt industry chain [62]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, RU2601 is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see for the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage and buy on dips to expand the price difference between light and dark rubber [67]. - For urea, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [69]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [70]. - For glass, the market is in a weak balance, and future attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [71]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, crude oil futures prices rose. The EIA report showed a significant decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory. Geopolitical factors are weakening the support for crude oil [43][44]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose. The domestic supply is loose, and the demand has slightly improved. The market is affected by news [45][46]. PX - PTA - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. PX supply may increase, and PTA's processing margin is at a low level. The downstream demand is expected to improve [47][48]. MEG - MEG prices rose. The supply - demand is in a fragile balance, and it is expected to remain strong in the short - term [49][51]. PP - PP prices rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to oscillate [52][53]. PE - PE prices rose. The supply may decrease in September, and the demand is in the process of recovery from the off - season to the peak season [54][55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's supply and demand are both increasing, and it may oscillate in the short - term. Styrene's supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand surplus is decreasing [56][58]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is weak. The export has eased, the feed demand is strengthening, and the power generation demand is weakening [60]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil supply was low in July, and the demand was weak. The short - term cracking spread has stabilized, and it is advisable to wait and see [61]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are weakening. The supply is stable, but the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and capital shortage. The cost pressure is expected to ease [62]. Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - Rubber prices rebounded. The import is increasing steadily, and the inventory pressure is high. The demand is facing challenges, and the cost support is strong [64][67]. Urea - Urea prices rose. The export may boost the price, but the agricultural demand is weakening. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate [68][69]. Soda Ash - Soda ash prices fell. The supply remains high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a historical high. Attention should be paid to cost factors [70]. Glass - Glass prices fell. The supply is stable, the demand is in a weak balance, and the market sentiment is fluctuating. Attention should be paid to policy and sentiment changes [71].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies, a strong US dollar, and easing geopolitical tensions, leading to a cautious market sentiment [3][4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market sentiment is heavily influenced by the upcoming speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, with expectations of a potential rate cut in September [3]. - Concerns arise from Powell possibly signaling a "neutral hawkish" stance, emphasizing inflation resilience and policy flexibility, which could dampen overly optimistic easing expectations [3]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the rate cut path further exacerbate market uncertainty, impacting gold's attractiveness [3][4]. Group 2: Strength of the US Dollar - The US dollar index closed at 98.2, reflecting a strong dollar that inversely affects gold prices, as a stronger dollar increases the cost of gold for holders of other currencies [4]. - Positive economic indicators, such as a 0.5% month-on-month increase in US retail sales for July, contribute to the dollar's strength and subsequently suppress gold's rebound potential [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risk Easing - A recent summit between US and Russian leaders has alleviated some concerns regarding escalating geopolitical conflicts, reducing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Decreased attention to Middle Eastern tensions and a decline in oil prices due to OPEC+ production expectations further diminish gold's appeal as a crisis hedge [5]. Group 4: Economic Data Contradictions - Mixed economic data, including a weak non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 in July and a core CPI rise of 3.1%, creates a divided market sentiment regarding Federal Reserve policy [6]. - The youth unemployment rate rising to 17.8% raises concerns about consumer demand, although inflation resilience partially offsets these worries [6]. Group 5: Long-term Structural Factors - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with UBS raising its 2026 gold price target to $3,600 due to ongoing macroeconomic risks and strong investment demand [7]. - The recent price drop is viewed as a result of short-term sentiment fluctuations, with market participants opting to take profits or hedge against potential downturns [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risk premium is weakening due to the expected "Putin-Zelensky meeting", and there are still strong differences in the market regarding the Fed's interest rate cut path. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will mainly fluctuate in the near future and wait for Powell's guidance at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. The oscillation range of the Au2510 contract may be between 750 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8][9]. - The trading logic of silver prices is still synchronized with that of gold, mainly based on the Fed's interest rate cut path on the macro - level, and its pricing weight is higher than the supply - demand fundamentals of silver. With the weakening of geopolitical risk premium and differences in the Fed's interest rate cut path, the silver price is also expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2510 contract may be between 8900 yuan/kilogram and 9400 yuan/kilogram [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate, covering various products such as wind turbines and furniture [1]. - The White House is planning a possible meeting among the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest, and geopolitical risks are expected to cool significantly [1]. - Fed's Bowman suggested allowing Fed staff to hold a small amount of crypto - products, reflecting the US government's friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 19, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 776.98 yuan/gram, closed at 775.06 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 772.60 yuan/gram, down 0.32% from the afternoon close [2]. - On August 19, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9263.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9187.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.77% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 272,701 lots, and the open interest was 342,500 lots. The night - session closed at 9061 yuan/kilogram, down 1.37% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 19, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.31%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.56%, down 0.8 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract on August 19, 2025, the long - position and short - position changes were 0 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 163,718 lots, up 0.28% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract on August 19, 2025, the long - position changed by 2 lots, and the short - position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 411,181 lots, down 10.67% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 962.21 tons, down 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 3.15 tons, down 16.95 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On August 19, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 2.34 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 710.76 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 84.36, up 0.44% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 87.91, up 1.19% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On August 19, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 21,362 kilograms, down 3.88% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 333,308 kilograms, up 22.46% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 6506 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 10,140 kilograms [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the precious metals market is currently experiencing fluctuations due to various factors, including U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2][3][4] - Galaxy Futures indicates that the unexpected rise in U.S. PPI and resilient retail data have dampened market expectations for interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, leading to cautious trading sentiment [1] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the U.S. involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to increased expectations for a resolution, which has also pressured precious metals [1][2] Group 2 - National Investment Futures notes that the recent clarity in U.S. tariff policies and ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks have reduced market risk aversion, resulting in continued adjustments in precious metals [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policies and tariffs is expected to have a lasting impact on inflation and global markets, with precious metals serving as a strategic asset to hedge against risks [2] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that gold is behaving more like a "luxury" rather than a commodity, driven by ownership changes rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics, which supports the case for increased investment in gold [4] Group 3 - Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank highlights that the market is awaiting the next catalyst, with recent U.S. economic data showing unexpected downward trends, which may affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] - The potential for geopolitical risks to rise could also trigger an increase in precious metals prices, as seen in past instances [3] - The strong demand for gold from ETFs and central banks is becoming a new pillar of support for gold prices, as noted by Goldman Sachs [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].