Core Viewpoint - The seminar "Investment for Good" focused on ESG and charitable asset management, highlighting the importance of understanding macroeconomic variables in equity investment [1][3]. Group 1: Asset Classification and Principles - Major asset classes include foreign exchange, government bonds, stocks, and commodities, with the principle that all returns are compensation for risk taken [4]. - Investment goals dictate the types and levels of risk exposure, with conservative goals favoring government bonds and aggressive goals allowing for more stocks and derivatives [4]. - The optimization of returns within specific risk-return requirements is essential, aiming to select the best-performing assets under given risk conditions [5]. Group 2: Stock Investment Insights - Two approaches were identified for how major asset classes can aid stock investment: understanding non-fundamental stock fluctuations through macro variables and analyzing investment cycles using the Merrill Lynch Clock [8][9]. - Economic cycles can be assessed through indicators like the gold-to-copper ratio, which helps define the current economic phase [8]. - The relationship between different asset classes, such as the inverse correlation between stocks and bonds, is crucial for understanding market dynamics [12]. Group 3: Current Challenges in Asset Management - The global economy is undergoing a new cycle characterized by de-globalization, leading to misaligned economic cycles across different regions [16]. - Long-term risk-return profiles are declining due to prolonged monetary easing in the U.S. and demographic shifts in China, complicating investment strategies [17]. - The correlation between stocks and bonds has shifted, necessitating a greater allocation to counter-cyclical assets like gold [18]. Group 4: Asset Outlook - Short-term prospects for U.S. dollar assets appear positive due to potential economic soft landing, but long-term risks remain due to increasing debt levels [19]. - Commodity prices, particularly oil and gold, are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges, with copper benefiting from demand driven by new energy technologies [20].

专题："投资·向善"——复旦管院·兴动ESG大讲堂暨高校基金会慈善资产管理研讨会 9月22日，"投资·向善"复旦管院·兴动ESG大讲堂暨高校基金会慈善资产管理研讨会举行，兴证全球基金 党委书记、副总经理陈锦泉出席会议并致辞。 当前投资环境日趋复杂，因此除权益资产外，会议还探讨了大类资产配置与多资产策略。除了市场展 望，与会嘉宾也深入交流了高校基金会资产管理在新形势下的发展路径。兴证全球基金期待通过本次研 讨会，进一步促进高校基金会与资产管理机构之间的理解与合作，携手成为价值共创、共同成长、长期 陪伴的同行者。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 陈锦泉表示，长期以来，兴证全球基金与多家高校基金会保持了深入合作。公司始终坚持风险控制、长 期投资与价值投资的基本理念，不断拓展主动管理的深度与广度，致力于通过构建多资产、多策略的投 资体系，为高校基金会提供稳健、可持续的投资回报。 在产品机制方面，兴证全球基金也积极推进创新。2016年，公司发起设立了系列社会责任专户产品，依 托专业能力助力慈善资产实现保值增值。该类产品在合同中明确约定，将部分投资收益纳入专项资金， 用于重新投入高校 ...

9月22日，"投资·向善"复旦管院·兴动ESG大讲堂暨高校基金会慈善资产管理研讨会举行，兴证全球基金 党委书记、副总经理陈锦泉出席会议并致辞。 陈锦泉指出，良好的投资离不开有活力的经济和有利的市场环境。今年以来，面对贸易摩擦等挑战，政 府陆续推出刺激消费、反"内卷"、推动雅砻江水电建设、探索建设海南自由贸易港等举措，体现出中国 经济的强大韧性。在多重压力测试之下，一批具有持续盈利能力和核心竞争力的优质企业逐渐脱颖而 出。他认为，在低利率环境中，权益资产仍具备持续吸引力；面对"资产荒"和流动性充裕的市场环境， 聚焦真正具备核心竞争力的企业，仍是获取超额回报的有效途径。 当前投资环境日趋复杂，因此除权益资产外，会议还探讨了大类资产配置与多资产策略。除了市场展 望，与会嘉宾也深入交流了高校基金会资产管理在新形势下的发展路径。兴证全球基金期待通过本次研 讨会，进一步促进高校基金会与资产管理机构之间的理解与合作，携手成为价值共创、共同成长、长期 陪伴的同行者。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 陈锦泉表示，长期以来，兴证全球基金与多家高校基金会保持了深入合作。公司始终坚持风险控制、长 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 9 月 21 日 穿越波动周期的投资罗盘 ——招商证券大类资产配置系列指数投资价值分析 风险提示：本报告基于对历史数据的分析，当市场环境变化时，存在失效风险。 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 梁雨辰 S1090523070008 liangyuchen2@cmschina.com.cn 江雨航 S1090525070014 jiangyuhang1@cmschina.com.cn 专题报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 招商证券全球大类资产配置策略指数（GARRI）、招商证券境内大类资产配置 策略指数 2.0（CARRI2）是由招商证券开发设计的量化策略指数，通过动量趋 势跟踪方法对在全球范围或中国境内的权益、债券和商品类的资产进行轮动配 置，通过风险平价、波动率控制以及逐日盯市进行止盈止损的方法来控制投资组 合整体的波动水平，提供长期稳健的资产配置方案。 指数资产池：涵盖股票指数、国债期货及现货、贵金属期货和商品期货四类资 产。全球配置 GARRI 指数包括沪深 300、中证 500、纳斯达克 100、标普 500 ...

倪伟表示，今年"固收+"产品业绩增长，主要受益于权益市场的上涨。"固收+"产品一般含权类仓位在 10%至30%，这部分资产波动对组合影响会远高于固收类资产。 此外，今年"固收+"产品规模的增长。倪伟认为，主要原因是无风险利率不再快速下行，同时权益市场 的风险偏好和走势抬升。今年利率走势是比较震荡的格局，没有出现系统性的利率下行，同时绝对利率 水平不高，今年纯债类产品收益率普遍在年化2%以内。所以纯债类产品的资金会流出，寻找新的资产 和策略，"固收+"产品就是投资者比较容易做出的投资决策。同时，在权益市场启动初期，就算资金看 好权益市场，还是会相对谨慎一些，选择"固收+"产品进行小仓位的权益暴露。 中证报中证网讯(记者王雪青)9月16日晚间，汇百川基金公募投资部联席总经理倪伟在"中证点金汇"直 播间表示，未来"固收+"产品的配置价值是较高的。因为传统的纯债类产品已经无法满足投资者的收益 要求，同时，股票市场的风险偏好已经明显提升，结构性机会层出不穷，策略增强机会也比较多。 在倪伟看来，"固收+"产品是长期资产配置趋势。"固收+"产品是通过大类资产配置，确定合适的股债配 比，然后在股债各类资产中寻找超额收益。股债 ...

中美宏观经济与大类资产配置 2025年9月 核心观点 美国 经济短期滞胀：房地产滞胀，消费增速 放缓，通胀反弹，企业盈利增速下降。 政策宽松：美联储9-12月降息两次，明 年降息两次，政策利率最终降至3.25%- 3.5%；白宫对美联储控制可能加剧通胀 预期不稳，削弱美元低位；财政赤字率 小幅下降。 大类资产配置：超配大宗商品，标配股 票与现金，低配债券，看空美元，看多 欧元、英镑与新兴市场货币。股市进入 牛市后期，短期看好医疗、必选消费、 通讯服务、材料、工业等板块。美国股 指牛长熊短，不断创新高，适合长期定 投。 中国 经济弱复苏：房地产筑底，家庭消费改 善，通缩见底，企业盈利止跌。 政策宽松：货币流动性延续宽松，4Q再 次降息10个基点，利率降至低位；财政 政策保持扩张；反内卷与去产能政策启 动。 大类资产配置：超配股票，标配大宗商 品和债券，低配现金，人民币温和升值。 股市进入牛市第二阶段，板块轮动。短 期看好AI硬件与应用、互联网、医疗、 化工、机械设备、必选消费等。中国股 指牛短熊长，仅少部分股票牛长熊短， 长期投资重选股，短期投资重择时。 来源: 招银国际环球市场 1 美国 • 因汽油、进口占比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai - Shenzhen REITs market has taken shape with broad market space. Policy support has accelerated the issuance rhythm. With interest rates declining, financial institutions such as securities firms are increasing their positions in REITs. If the number and average market value of China's public REITs reach certain levels, the market value could increase significantly [2][3]. - REITs have unique asset attributes, being both debt - like and equity - like, with a very long duration and diverse underlying assets. Different asset types have different market performances, completion rates of distributable amounts, and valuation methods [5]. - Based on valuation comparisons and fundamentals, some REITs are attractive, but liquidity may limit secondary - market trading strategies. Currently, subscribing to newly issued REITs through offline channels is recommended, with an expected annualized return of 5.1 - 6.4% [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Issuance Rhythm Accelerates, and the REITs Market Takes Shape - **China's REITs Market Has Taken Shape**: As of June 30, 2025, there were 68 listed REITs with a total market value of 205.5 billion yuan and a trading volume of 623 million yuan per day in H1 2025 [16]. - **Policy Support May Accelerate the Issuance Rhythm**: China's public REITs issuance process includes project screening, provincial development and reform commission application, national development and reform commission review, exchange review and registration, and issuance and listing. Since 2024, policies have simplified the process and expanded the asset scope. REITs expansion has also been normalized [18][21][23]. - **Interest Rate Decline Leads Financial Institutions to Increase REITs Positions**: In a low - interest - rate environment, financial institutions such as securities firms and trusts have been increasing their holdings of REITs since 2022 [25][29]. - **China's REITs Market Has Broad Space**: Although China's listed REITs number has exceeded that of Japan and Singapore, the average market value per REIT is much lower. If reaching the US number and Asian average market value, the market value could increase 10.99 times [32][35]. 3.2 Asset Characteristics of REITs - **Both Debt - like and Equity - like with Good Risk - Return Ratio**: REITs' debt attributes are reflected in mandatory and high - proportion dividends and stable cash flows. Their equity attributes are shown in the high dependence on underlying asset operations, the importance of underlying asset value for valuation, and high volatility. From the experience of mature markets, REITs have a good risk - return ratio [41][50][55]. - **Extremely Long Duration Forms Unique Asset Attributes**: China's REITs are mainly contract - type closed - end funds with a long fixed term (10 - 99 years). Longer remaining terms mean more prominent equity attributes, while shorter ones may highlight debt attributes [61]. - **Diverse Underlying Asset Types**: China's REITs underlying assets include eight major categories. Different asset types have different market performances, completion rates of distributable amount forecasts, and regular report data. Some traffic - facility REITs release monthly operation data [67][71][101]. 3.3 REITs Valuation Method Discussion - **Overview of REITs Valuation Methods**: REITs valuation methods are divided into absolute and relative valuation methods. The absolute valuation method often uses the DCF method, and common relative valuation indicators include PNAV, PFFO, IRR, and cash distribution rate [108]. - **PNAV Applies to All Types of REITs**: PNAV reflects investors' comprehensive expectations and market sentiment. Currently, the median PNAV of the Shanghai - Shenzhen REITs market is at a historical high, and different asset types have different reasonable PNAV levels [112][115]. - **Different Types of REITs Use Different Valuation Methods**: PFFO is suitable for equity - type REITs, while cash distribution rate or IRR is more applicable to franchise - type REITs. Equity - type REITs have high - dividend - stock characteristics [118][124][127]. - **Importance of IRR for REITs Valuation**: IRR is an important tool for measuring the long - term investment value of REITs. The initial IRR of listed REITs has remained stable, but the actual IRR may deviate from the initial value [128][130][131]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **Liquidity Shortage Limits Secondary - Market Trading**: Some REITs are attractive, but the market has poor liquidity, with most individual bonds having low daily trading volumes. The current high - valuation market is not a good time for large - scale allocation [135][136]. - **Currently, Subscribing to Newly Issued Funds Can Be the Main Strategy**: In 2025, newly issued REITs have high first - day price increases. The REITs new - issue strategy has a capacity of 1.5 - 2.0 billion yuan, and with 20 - 25 new issues expected this year and stable allocation ratios, the annual return could be 5.1 - 6.4% [140][148].

Core Insights - The online seminar "Gold Price Fluctuations: Market Volatility and Outlook for the Second Half of the Year" was successfully held, featuring discussions from various experts on the current state and future trends of the financial market [1] Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Analysis - Gold has seen a rapid increase since the beginning of 2024, with silver showing a similar upward trend, indicating potential for further gains [2] - Central banks, particularly in China and India, are increasing their gold reserves to hedge against currency risks, reflecting a shift in global liquidity dynamics [2] - Despite a significant rise in gold prices over the past two years, the overall trend remains upward, with expectations of increased volatility in the future [2] Group 2: Market Volatility and Asset Allocation - The current global market is characterized by high uncertainty and volatility, driven by factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and doubts about global economic growth [3] - Investors are advised to maintain diversified portfolios, focusing on high-quality assets while being cautious of risks in U.S. equities and exploring opportunities in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3] - The bond market is expected to remain uncertain until monetary policy becomes clearer [3] Group 3: Structural Economic Challenges - The global economy is entering a phase of "high volatility, low growth," with structural challenges such as aging populations and high national debts limiting growth potential [4] - There is a notable "K-shaped" divergence in asset performance, with U.S. stock indices being driven by a few tech stocks while many others lag behind [4] - Long-term investment in gold is recommended for its hedging properties, alongside opportunities in bonds and sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals [4] Group 4: Global Economic Dynamics and Financial Innovation - The restructuring of international order is enhancing the strategic value of gold, as central banks increase their gold purchases to mitigate dollar risks [5] - The advent of artificial intelligence is expected to revolutionize traditional economic analysis, necessitating new growth theories [5] - Developments in Web3 and Real World Assets (RWA) are anticipated to reshape financial infrastructure, with potential implications for gold and digital currencies [5] Group 5: U.S. Policy Impacts and Market Reactions - The economic impact of the Trump administration's policies has led to structural changes in the market, with concerns about long-term social inequality and growth potential [6] - The simultaneous decline of U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar reflects investor apprehension regarding U.S. policy uncertainties [6] - Investors are advised to monitor central bank asset diversification trends to prepare for potential risks associated with escalating trade tensions [6]

证券时报见习记者 沈述红 "市场正在经历一场创新驱动的牛市。"近日，民生加银基金权益投资部总监助理、投资决策委员会成 员、基金经理尹涛接受证券时报记者采访时表示，当前AI、创新药、新消费等领域正在爆发"中国式创 新"的化学反应。 这位兼具10年财经媒体观察视角与17年跨市场投资经验的管理人，通过构建"宏观周期研判+行业轮动 配置+个股深度挖掘"的三维模型，在近年结构性市场中形成差异化投资策略。尹涛提出，"要学会在牛 市打'持久战'，在平衡市和熊市打'游击战'，让'基本面'与'活下去'同频"。 2008年全球金融危机期间，市场在恐惧与贪婪中剧烈波动。尹涛判断国内通胀将快速回落，果断加大债 券仓位，低配权益资产，使投资组合在股票市场暴跌中保持稳健，并获得了较好收益。这次实战让他认 识到，大类资产配置并非锦上添花，而是财富管理的生存刚需。 尹涛2011年底加入从容投资，2017年转投民生加银基金后，历任专户投资经理、专户理财二部总监助 理，现任权益投资部总监助理、投委会成员及基金经理，管理5只公募基金，规模超14亿元。 2025年半年报数据显示，尹涛执掌的民生加银内核驱动过去半年净值增长率达19.18%，过去一年净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing an innovation-driven bull market, with sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption witnessing significant growth in "Chinese-style innovation" [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is based on a three-dimensional model combining macroeconomic cycle assessment, industry rotation allocation, and in-depth stock analysis [1][4]. - The approach emphasizes a dynamic balance in asset allocation, avoiding extreme positions typical of either growth or value investing [4][5]. - The investment framework is characterized by a focus on economic cycles and industry trends, selecting 3 to 5 high-prospect industries for targeted investment each year [4][6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The net value growth rate of the fund managed by the company reached 19.18% in the past six months and 18.70% over the past year [3]. - The fund's performance ranked in the top 5% of its peers over the past two years, indicating strong relative performance [3]. Group 3: Market Adaptation - The company adjusts its stock positions flexibly, reducing equity exposure from 91% in Q2 2023 to 67% by the end of Q4 2023, effectively managing drawdowns during uncertain market conditions [6]. - In 2024, the company increased stock positions again, successfully capturing market opportunities [6]. Group 4: Key Investment Themes - The company identifies three key investment themes with contemporary relevance: AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, which are seen as driving forces of the current market [5][6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is highlighted as undergoing significant transformation, approaching the standards of developed countries [6].