Core Insights - The launch of pension fund Y shares in November 2022 has led to a steady increase in both product quantity and management scale, with over 300 products and a total scale exceeding 15 billion yuan as of Q3 this year [1][2] - The recovery of the equity market in the second half of this year has significantly boosted the performance of several pension fund Y shares, particularly FOF products, which have achieved over 20% returns [2][4] Product and Scale Growth - As of the end of Q3, the total scale of pension fund Y shares has surpassed 15 billion yuan, representing a growth of over 65% since the beginning of the year [2] - FOF and index funds account for 13 billion yuan and over 2 billion yuan of the total scale, respectively [2] - Seven public fund institutions have pension fund Y shares with management scales exceeding 1 billion yuan, with three new additions since the beginning of the year [2] Performance Highlights - The ETF linked to the "Double Innovation" theme index has reported returns between 30% and 65% as of November 7, while other broad-based indices have seen returns exceeding 20% [2] - Specific funds like Guotai Min'an Pension 2040 Y have achieved returns over 28% in the second half of the year, primarily through heavy allocations in precious metals and battery sectors [3] - E Fund Huiyu Active Pension Y has also reported returns above 25%, focusing on both growth and value styles [3] Portfolio Adjustments - FOF fund managers have adjusted their portfolios based on asset cost-effectiveness, increasing allocations to U.S. Treasury and money market funds [4] - The fund managed by Lin Guohai has seen its scale exceed 1.2 billion yuan, with a focus on growth assets and a reduction in volatile growth sectors [4][5] - The fund managed by Xu Liming has maintained a neutral to slightly high equity position while increasing exposure to dollar-denominated bonds [5] Market Outlook - The current market is characterized by a large-cap value style, with key sectors including finance, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, innovative pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [5] - Short-term adjustments in the technology sector are expected due to profit-taking by institutional investors and a lack of incremental funds [5] - Long-term investment opportunities in the technology sector remain, particularly during market corrections [5]

Core Insights - The Y-share pension funds have seen significant growth in both product numbers and management scale since their launch in November 2022, with over 300 products and a total scale exceeding 15 billion yuan as of Q3 this year [1] - The recovery of the equity market in the second half of the year has led to substantial performance increases for several Y-share pension funds, particularly FOF products, which have adjusted their asset allocations effectively [1][2] Fund Performance and Management - As of Q3, the total scale of Y-share pension funds surpassed 15 billion yuan, marking a growth of over 65% since the beginning of the year, with FOF and index funds accounting for 13 billion yuan and over 2 billion yuan respectively [1] - Notably, seven public fund institutions have pension funds with management scales exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Huaxia Fund leading at over 2 billion yuan [1] - The "Double Innovation" theme index ETFs have shown impressive returns between 30% to 65%, while broader indices like CSI 500 have also exceeded 20% returns [2] Asset Allocation Strategies - FOF fund managers have adjusted their equity holdings based on cost-effectiveness, increasing allocations to U.S. Treasury and money market funds [3] - The Guotai Min'an Pension 2040 fund achieved over 28% returns in the second half of the year, primarily through heavy investments in precious metals and battery sectors [2] - The E Fund Huaiyu Active Pension fund has also reported returns exceeding 25%, focusing on popular index products and actively managed funds [3] Market Outlook - The current market is characterized by a large-cap value style, with sectors such as finance, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, innovative pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods being favored [4] - The technology sector is expected to face short-term adjustments due to profit-taking by institutional investors and a lack of incremental capital, although it remains a long-term investment focus [4][5]

畅力资产宝晓辉： 中国权益资产仍是配置"必选项" ◎胡尧 记者 马嘉悦 进入四季度，A股市场有所调整，黄金价格也出现了短线回落。接下来，大类资产何处去？权益资产性 价比将如何演变？投资组合应聚焦还是均衡？针对市场关切的问题，上海证券报记者近日专访了宏观策 略私募——畅力资产董事长宝晓辉。在她看来，外部不确定性以及美元走弱趋势或将延续，黄金配置价 值依旧显著。另外，伴随着无风险收益率下行，全球资金正经历重新配置的过程，中国权益资产是组合 中的"必选项"，尤其是成长空间广阔的科技、受益于经济复苏的资源股值得关注。 浸淫资本市场十余年，宝晓辉始终坚持平衡投资体系。谈及四季度，她称，在黄金、权益等资产前期涨 幅显著的背景下，一方面可结合业绩进行股票组合的"高低切换"，另一方面可以固收为底，做好波动的 控制。 黄金与权益机会丰富 "拨开迷雾，明月在望。"在接受记者采访时，宝晓辉如是概括当前大类资产配置的方向。 "四季度以来，市场扰动因素有所增加，尤其是经过前期的强势上涨，权益资产和黄金资产估值都显著 拔高。不管是地缘政治的变化还是资金获利了结的诉求，都让当下的大类资产配置'迷雾重重'。"宝晓 辉坦言。 不过，她认为，短 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[3][5][7] - The content primarily focuses on market performance, fund statistics, and asset class trends without discussing quantitative models or factors[8][9][46] - No formulas, construction processes, or evaluations of quantitative models or factors are provided in the report[10][55][57]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities anticipates a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, with an emphasis on optimizing industrial structure and enhancing technological innovation [1] Economic Outlook - GDP growth target is set at approximately 5% [1] - Average consumption growth rate is expected to be around 5% [1] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to return to positive territory, while Producer Price Index (PPI) remains in negative territory [1] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize after hitting a bottom [1] - Fiscal deficit rate is projected to maintain an expansionary trend at around 4%, with the broad fiscal deficit rate increasing to approximately 8.3% [1] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Anticipation of rising gold prices and slight increases in oil prices [1] - Suggestion to overweight A-shares while maintaining a cautiously optimistic stance on the bond market [1] - Caution advised for U.S. stocks, with expectations of a bull market for U.S. Treasuries [1] - Potential upward movement for the Renminbi is anticipated [1] Investment Opportunities - Recommended focus on four main investment themes: technological innovation, cyclical infrastructure, service consumption, and public utility dividends [1]

Inflation Data - October CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of -0.1% and prior forecasts of 0.1%[1] - October PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -2.1%, an improvement from -2.3% in the previous month, also above market expectations of -2.3%[7] Price Movements - Food prices decreased by 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, impacting CPI by approximately -0.54 percentage points[3] - Core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with service prices increasing by 0.8%[3] Sector Analysis - Significant price increases were observed in gold jewelry, with prices rising by 50.3% for gold and 46.1% for platinum, driven by sustained demand and new tax policies[4] - The manufacturing sector showed signs of slowing, with the production index at 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month[8] Market Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see a shift in asset performance, with a transition from technology growth stocks to low-volatility dividend stocks as risk appetite declines[1] - Bond yields are anticipated to decrease in Q4 due to weakening fundamentals and potential monetary easing as risk preferences shift[1]

- The artificial intelligence global asset allocation model applies machine learning to asset allocation problems, using factor investment ideas to score and rank assets, ultimately constructing a monthly quantitative equal-weighted strategy for global asset allocation[38][39][40] - The dynamic macroeconomic event factor-based stock-bond rotation strategy includes three risk preference models (conservative, balanced, and aggressive), utilizing macro timing modules and risk budgeting frameworks to determine stock and bond weights[43][44][45] - The dividend style timing model uses 10 indicators from economic growth and monetary liquidity dimensions, constructing a timing strategy for the dividend index, which shows significant stability improvement compared to the CSI Dividend Total Return Index[51][54][55] Model Backtesting Results - Artificial intelligence global asset allocation model: annualized return 38.76%, Sharpe ratio 1.07, maximum drawdown -6.56%, year-to-date return 6.81%[39][40][42] - Dynamic macroeconomic event factor-based stock-bond rotation strategy: aggressive model annualized return 20.14%, Sharpe ratio 1.30, maximum drawdown -13.72%, year-to-date return 14.42%; balanced model annualized return 10.92%, Sharpe ratio 1.19, maximum drawdown -6.77%, year-to-date return 4.13%; conservative model annualized return 5.94%, Sharpe ratio 1.50, maximum drawdown -3.55%, year-to-date return 0.97%[43][49][50] - Dividend style timing model: annualized return 16.52%, Sharpe ratio 1.07, maximum drawdown -13.77%, year-to-date return 0%[51][54][55]

Core Insights - China Galaxy's executives attended the Q3 2025 earnings conference, highlighting their unique strategies in international business, wealth management, and institutional services [1] - The low-interest environment has become a focal point for investors regarding asset allocation strategies [2] Group 1: International Business - The company maintains a functional-first approach in its investment banking operations, focusing on enhancing service quality aligned with national strategies and key industries outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - China Galaxy's international business network spans regions including Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, making it one of the most widely networked Chinese brokers in Asia [3] - Future plans include strengthening overseas subsidiaries' management and enhancing integrated operations to solidify its position in Southeast Asia [3] Group 2: Wealth Management - The wealth management division aims to resonate with national goals, collaborate with partners, and align closely with client needs, continuously upgrading its trading systems to create a diverse and stable service ecosystem [3] Group 3: Institutional Services - The institutional business is focused on becoming a reliable full-service provider, integrating technology deeply into operations, and offering a comprehensive range of services including research, derivatives, asset management, and brokerage [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - In the current low-interest environment, traditional fixed-income investments face challenges such as low spreads and high volatility, prompting a shift towards quantitative, neutral, and structured investment strategies to enhance returns [3] - The company is also leveraging its own funds and responding to new financial policies to maintain stable investment scales in OCI accounts while exploring opportunities in the convertible bond market [4] Group 5: Strategic Planning - The company is engaged in thorough discussions and rigorous evaluations for its new strategic plan, which is crucial for its development over the next five years and beyond, ensuring that the strategy is clear, feasible, and capable of creating long-term value for shareholders [4]

Economic Growth Trends - East Asian economies are experiencing a slowdown in growth, with GDP growth expected to be slightly below 5% over the next five years[13] - After surpassing a per capita GDP of $12,000 (in 2015 USD), East Asian economies see a decline in growth rates from over 9% to a range of 3%-7%[13] - China's GDP growth rate during the transition period (2021-2024) is projected to average 5.53%[13] GDP Projections - To achieve the 2035 economic goals, China's GDP growth must average around 4.5% annually over the next decade[15] - By 2035, the aim is for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries, enhancing overall living standards[15] Industry and Innovation - Emphasis on maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing while fostering emerging industries and high-quality service sector growth[15] - The focus on technological innovation is crucial for enhancing productivity and capturing opportunities in the new technological revolution[15] Monetary Policy and Investment - The central bank's monetary policy is gradually normalizing but will remain accommodative for an extended period[39] - The narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the US is expected to support the appreciation of the Renminbi[39] Market Outlook - A-shares are expected to experience a slight upward trend, with recommendations to overweight A-shares throughout the year[39] - Hong Kong stocks are also projected to trend upwards, driven by strong earnings expectations in the AI sector and improved liquidity conditions[59]

Macro and Technical Perspectives on Asset Allocation - The macro perspective indicates a bearish outlook on equity assets, while the technical perspective shows an upward trend with moderate valuation and a state of capital outflow [1][5][20] - For bonds, the macro perspective is bullish, but the technical perspective indicates a downward trend [1][5][20] - Industrial products are viewed negatively from a macro perspective, with a downward price trend also noted technically [1][5][20] - Gold assets are favored in the macro view, with a technical upward price trend [1][5][20] Asset Performance Tracking - The fixed ratio + macro indicators + technical indicators combination yielded a return of 10.51% in 2025, with an annualized return of 12.05% since April 2006 [2][21] - The volatility-controlled + macro indicators + technical indicators combination achieved a return of 15.69%, while the risk parity + macro indicators + technical indicators combination returned 6.99% [2][30] Asset Class Analysis - Equity assets are currently under pressure from macro indicators, while technical indicators suggest an upward trend but with capital outflow [20][21] - Bond assets are supported by macro indicators, but technical indicators show a downward trend [20][21] - Industrial products face macro headwinds and technical downward trends [20][21] - Gold assets benefit from favorable macro indicators and an upward technical trend [20][21] Valuation and Capital Flow Indicators - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 800 index is at 53.94%, indicating a moderate valuation level [13][14] - The latest capital flow indicator for equity assets shows a net outflow of 316 billion, reflecting a capital outflow state [16][17] Summary of Asset Class Scores - The overall scores for asset classes based on macro and technical indicators show equities at 1, bonds at 3, industrial products at -2, and gold at 2 [19][20] - The combined analysis suggests a bearish outlook for equities and industrial products, while bonds and gold are viewed positively [20][21]