1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict increases market risk - aversion demand, but the sharp strengthening of the US dollar index exerts pressure. Weak US retail sales and industrial output data in May strengthen the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The global central banks' gold - buying trend remains unchanged, supporting the gold price center in the long - term. With a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, short - term focus is on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and signals of monetary policy shift [3]. - **Copper**: The most important macro event in the short - term is the Fed's interest - rate decision. Although the interest rate is mostly priced in, the statement after the decision may affect copper prices. High prices above 78,000 yuan per ton may lead to a negative feedback and a situation of high prices but low trading volume. The position of Shanghai copper has declined from a high of 580,000 lots to below 550,000 lots. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - **Zinc**: The supply side shows a slow - paced relaxation, as indicated by the rising TC and the month - on - month increase in zinc ingot production. However, the transfer from ore to ingot takes time, and the relaxation at the ore end has not fully translated to the ingot end. The demand side remains stable but weak in the traditional off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment, as well as inventory data [32]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry's upper limit with little change. The demand from end - user factories is significantly declining in the off - season, but the processing sector's start - up rate has only slightly decreased, with some inventory accumulation. The low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, with prices likely to be volatile and bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term [46]. - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea has not resumed production, and there is a possibility of short - term (1 - 3 months) production suspension. Although the overall impact on annual alumina supply is limited, there may be monthly shortages, pushing up ore prices. Alumina has shifted to inventory accumulation, and prices are under pressure [47]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material market for scrap aluminum is tight, leading to high costs. The supply capacity is relatively excessive, and the demand growth may slow down in the second half of the year. The futures contract shows a BACK structure [48]. - **Nickel**: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore remains firm, squeezing the profits of downstream products. The price of nickel iron has been further reduced, and the demand from some steel mills has weakened, leading to inventory accumulation. The stainless - steel market is sluggish, and the price of nickel sulfate has also decreased. The spread between nickel sulfate and pure nickel is widening [74]. - **Tin**: Tin prices have remained stable recently and are expected to continue so in the next week under the assumption of no major changes in the macro and fundamental aspects. Due to falling inventory, slower - than - expected recovery of Burmese tin mines, and decent short - term demand, tin prices may be slightly bullish with limited upside space [90]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market for the lithium - battery industry is weak. The supply side sees stable lithium ore prices but a downward shift in the lithium carbonate market price. The demand side shows no significant improvement, and the terminal market has mixed performance [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The market supply of the silicon industry chain is generally loose, and the furnace - opening expectations are gradually being realized. The supply side is slightly relaxed, and the demand side is stable. The polysilicon market has an increased production plan in July, while the downstream silicon wafer and battery - cell markets have reduced production and mainly make rigid purchases [118]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price and gold - silver ratio are presented [4]. - **Correlation Analysis**: Relationships between gold and the US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real interest rates are shown [9][10]. - **Inventory and Fund Position**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories, as well as long - term gold and silver fund positions are provided [13][14]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper 3M are given [16]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different copper brands in various regions are presented [21]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper scrap - refined copper price difference are provided [25][28]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper and international copper warehouse receipts, and LME copper inventory data are shown [29][30]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [33]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different zinc products in various regions are presented [38]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc warehouse receipts and inventory data are shown [42]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and aluminum - related futures contracts are provided [50]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of aluminum in different regions, as well as LME aluminum spot and spreads are presented [57][62]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum warehouse receipts and inventory data, as well as alumina warehouse receipt data are shown [68]. Nickel - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures, as well as stainless - steel futures, are provided [75]. - **Spot and Inventory Data**: Nickel spot prices, warehouse receipt inventories, and nickel ore prices and inventories are presented [80][82]. - **Profit Data**: Profit margins of nickel - related products such as MHP - produced electrolytic nickel, sulfuric - nickel production, and stainless - steel production are shown [84][87]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of tin products are presented [97]. - **Inventory Data**: Warehouse receipt inventories of tin and LME tin inventory are shown [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are provided [105]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide are presented [108]. - **Inventory Data**: Exchange inventories, including Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and different types of lithium carbonate inventories, are shown [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and grades are provided [119]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures contracts are provided [123]. - **Product Price Data**: Prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and silicone products are presented [131][134]. - **Output and Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon production in Xinjiang and Yunnan, as well as inventories of polysilicon and industrial silicon are shown [137][145][149].

智通财经APP获悉，土耳其政策制定者正采取行动遏制所谓的"热钱"流入里拉市场，对全球最赚钱的货 币套利交易之一展开反击。 尽管央行持续严格管控里拉市场并允许货币渐进贬值，但交易员称近期市场波动变得更难预测。彭博计 算显示，尤其在最近几个周五，里拉贬值速度比其他交易日平均快三到四倍。 尽管里拉对美元仍在持续贬值，但土耳其政府正推行"实际升值"政策，即让货币跌幅低于消费者通胀 率。随着月度通胀预期放缓，政策制定者正让实际升值的节奏变得更难预判。不过，套利交易仍有利可 图。 彭博基于滚动一月远期合约的衡量显示，5月里拉套利交易回报率达2021年以来最高，足以弥补3月的损 失。独立土耳其经济学家哈卢克·布鲁姆切克计算表明，自4月18日至上周，套利交易流入资金约34亿美 元。 交易员透露，该交易已连续五个季度盈利，上一次如此长的连胜纪录还要追溯至2012年，且当前主要由 短期资本流入(即热钱)和超短期头寸推动——持仓时间通常不超过一周。 摩根士丹利、德意志银行和荷兰国际集团近期重申对里拉套利交易的做多建议，汇丰则主张买入长期本 币债券。 这种周五加速贬值的现象，直接打击了一种流行的短期交易策略——投资者在周四晚间通过隔 ...

新华财经北京6月9日电欧洲交易时段，风险偏好上升推动澳元和新西兰元等货币上涨，日元表现分化。自年初以 来，美元已下跌约10%，但近期显示出一定的企稳迹象。美国非农就业数据高于预期，以及央行决策不如预期鸽 派，导致市场对利率预期重新定价。整体偏向鹰派。外汇市场整体较为平静，利率因素的重要性进一步凸显。尽 管日本央行通过购买债券来维持市场稳定，但日元仍是进行套利交易的首选融资货币。 美元 | 中央银行 | 维持利率不变的概率 | 预期利率调整空 间(基点) | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美联储 | 99% | 46 | 市场预期下次会议维持利率不变 | | 欧洲央行 | 87% | 25 | 下次会议维持利率不变 | | 英国央行 | 94% | 40 | 下次会议维持利率不变 | | 加拿大央行 | 78% | 27 | 下次会议维持利率不变 | | 澳洲联储 | 23% (降息 77%) | 71 | 下次会议降息的可能性较大 | | 新西兰联储 | 69% | 29 | 下次会议维持利率不变 | | 瑞士央行 | 27% (降息 73%) | 46(或降息 50个 基 ...

但美国经济数据疲软和供需面走弱可能限制铜价上涨空间 关税预期摇摆，铜价重拾涨势。 本周铜价持续冲高，截至6月6日收盘，沪铜期货收于78930元/吨，日内涨810元。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜期货本周录得四连涨，并触及9809美元/吨，创近两个月新高，纽约商品交易所 （COMEX）铜期货五连涨，价格更是一度飙升至5.06美元/磅，距离今年3月创下的5.37美元/磅历史高位仅一步 之遥。 交易人士分析称，这轮涨势和3月份铜价狂飙的行情有相似之处，是美国关税预期引发的全球库存"大转移"、矿 端供应紧张与需求复苏的复杂博弈。但在经历过3月行情后，市场可能对此敏感性会有所下降。 今年3月份，LME铜价突破1万美元/吨，五矿期货有色研究员吴坤金分析称，海外贸易局势相对反复，尽管美国 提高钢铁关税对美铜形成向上的脉冲刺激，但总体情绪面持续性待观察。产业上看铜原料供应较为紧张，但加 工费边际企稳和精废价差扩大使得供应紧张情绪边际缓和，叠加消费端韧性有所减弱，预计铜价上涨仍面临阻 力。 价差走阔，铜市套利交易再起 尽管关税政策尚未正式落地，但市场已提前反应。 "交易商预期美国将对铜征收关税，希望从美国铜价上涨中获利，大量铜库 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns that excessive government spending and aggressive quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve have set the stage for a potential collapse of the bond market, indicating that the timing of this crisis is uncertain [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Concerns - Dimon believes that the U.S. government's previous large-scale spending and the Federal Reserve's extensive QE policies have created a "ticking time bomb" for the bond market, leading to an inevitable collapse [2]. - He expresses uncertainty about when this crisis will occur, suggesting it could be in six months or six years, and emphasizes the need for a change in the debt trajectory and market-making capabilities [2]. - Dimon acknowledges the return of "bond vigilantes," indicating a growing concern among investors regarding government debt levels [2]. Group 2: Internal Threats to the U.S. - Dimon identifies "internal enemies" as the greatest threat to the U.S., rather than foreign adversaries, highlighting issues such as mismanagement and the need for reform in various sectors including government regulation, immigration, and healthcare [3]. - He calls for improvements in governance and management to enhance the U.S. economy's growth potential, suggesting that addressing these issues could lead to an annual growth rate of 3% [3][4]. Group 3: Tax Policy Recommendations - Dimon supports taxing profits from arbitrage trading, aligning with recent efforts by the Trump administration to close tax loopholes in this area [6][7]. - He proposes using the revenue from this tax to increase income tax credits, potentially benefiting individuals without children, estimating an additional cost of $60 billion for this initiative [7]. - Dimon argues against allowing significant state and local tax (SALT) deductions and urges Congress to pass tax legislation before focusing on other growth issues [8].

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：美国绝对应当对套利交易征税。 ...

这家华尔街银行的报告表明，投资者仍在试图预测土耳其央行将如何调整其政策，以应对自三月份以来 土耳其国内政治危机所带来的影响。土耳其逮捕了伊斯坦布尔市长埃克雷姆·伊马姆奥卢(一位颇受民众 支持的总统竞选人)，这一举动损害了土耳其里拉的币值，并加剧了通胀的形势，促使货币管理部门终 止了去年 12 月开始的降息周期。 即便如此，里拉当前的贬值速度与政策制定者的预期目标相悖。该目标是将月度通胀率从上个月的约 38%降至今年年底的 24%，并在 2026 年降至 12%。 高盛表示："我们认为，土耳其央行最迟会在 7 月的会议上重启降息周期时放弃当前的外汇政策。我们 认为当前的外汇政策是央行提前实施贬值举措，以避免出现明显的实际升值。" 5 月份里拉兑美元的汇率下跌了约 1.6%，而上个月则下跌了 1.4%。在过去两年中，高利率以及经消费 者通胀调整后的里拉表现强劲，导致了以套利交易形式的大量资金流入。这是一种投资策略，即交易商 借入低收益货币以投资于其他领域。 但这使得土耳其央行的流动性管理变得复杂起来，因为它利用这些资金来增加储备，同时又将数十亿里 拉注入金融系统。土耳其央行一度面临着超过 1 万亿里拉的供过于求的 ...

高盛集团表示，随着土耳其央行允许里拉贬值，全球最成功的套利交易面临风险。当前里拉的贬值速 度，与政策制定者希望将通胀率从上月约38%降至今年底24%、2026年降至12%的目标相矛盾。高盛预 计，土耳其央行很可能会在7月的会议上重启降息周期时，放弃当前的外汇政策，并认为目前的汇率政 策是在提前完成必要的贬值，以避免实际汇率出现大幅升值。 ...

Group 1 - The influx of hot money into Hong Kong has led to a rise in the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) exchange rate to 7.75, but it has recently dropped to a low of 7.84, marking the weakest level since September 2023 [1][2] - Factors such as increased IPO activity, southbound capital inflows, low deposit rates in mainland China, and capital returning from the US are driving liquidity into Hong Kong [1][2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) may intervene further in the market due to the negative interest rate differential between the US dollar and the HKD [2] Group 2 - The HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) is expected to rise in the coming months due to dividend distributions, quarter-end funding demands, and the absorption of liquidity from bond and stock issuances [1][2] - The current loan-to-deposit ratio in Hong Kong is 20 percentage points lower than in 2019, indicating low credit demand despite a liquidity-rich environment [2] - The HKMA's currency peg system has remained intact since 1983, despite historical foreign exchange crises [2]

Core Insights - Interest rates are a core component of monetary policy adjustments by central banks, directly impacting the foreign exchange market through currency supply and demand, market expectations, capital flows, and policy differentiation [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Effects - Rate hikes attract capital inflows, reduce currency circulation, and strengthen the domestic currency, with the Federal Reserve's rate hikes typically leading to a stronger US dollar [2] - Rate cuts decrease the attractiveness of domestic assets, leading to capital outflows and currency depreciation [3] Group 2: Market Expectations - Market expectations often preemptively incorporate interest rate decisions, and discrepancies between actual decisions and expectations can lead to significant currency fluctuations [4] - Forward guidance from central banks directly influences market expectations, as indicated by Powell's comments in May 2025, which suggested a higher threshold for rate cuts, resulting in a short-term strengthening of the dollar [4] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation - Tariff policies, such as those from the Trump administration, may increase inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates to control prices, indirectly supporting the dollar [5] - Differentiation in central bank rate decisions can lead to currency fluctuations, exemplified by the significant drop in the GBP against the NOK when the Bank of England cut rates while the Norwegian central bank held rates steady in May 2025 [5] Group 4: Arbitrage and Capital Flows - Interest rate differentials drive arbitrage, where investors borrow in low-rate currencies to invest in high-rate currency assets, increasing demand for high-rate currencies [6] - Changes in liquidity due to central bank balance sheet adjustments can indirectly alter exchange rates, as seen when the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction decreases dollar supply, potentially supporting its value [6] Group 5: Short-term vs Long-term Impacts - Short-term volatility in the foreign exchange market often occurs following interest rate announcements due to emotional market reactions [7] - Long-term currency trends are determined by the overarching direction of monetary policy [8] Group 6: Market Outlook - The current global monetary policy divergence, coupled with uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies, has led to increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [9] - Key areas for investor focus include the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, potential adjustments in response to inflation or economic data, geopolitical risks from escalating trade tensions, and emerging market currency crises [9] - Arbitrage opportunities driven by interest rate differentials and capital flows will remain central to short-term trading strategies [9]