流动性日报 | 2025-12-19 市场流动性概况 2025-12-18，股指板块成交7791.36亿元，较上一交易日变动-21.56%；持仓金额13588.05亿元，较上一交易日变动 -4.22%；成交持仓比为57.18%。 国债板块成交3634.69亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.04%；持仓金额7495.56亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.86%；成交持 仓比为48.60%。 基本金属板块成交6590.57亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.35%；持仓金额6869.83亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.46%；成 交持仓比为98.83%。 贵金属板块成交9463.92亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.42%；持仓金额5248.86亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.22%；成交 持仓比为269.59%。 能源化工板块成交4392.21亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.11%；持仓金额4373.34亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.41%；成 交持仓比为91.72%。 农产品板块成交2781.95亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.87%；持仓金额5866.48亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.59%；成交 持仓比为44.71%。 黑色建材板块成交3076.17 ...

广发期货EDP 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月18日 欢迎关注微信公众号 | | | | 【每日精选观点】 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 合約 | 观点 | | | | 锡 甲醇 | SN2601 MA2605 | 震荡偏强 短期偏强 | | | | 焦煤 | JM2605 | 底部反弹 | | | | 棕榈洲 | P2605 | 逢高空 | | | | 铂、锂 | PT2606/PD | 逢低多 | | | | | 2606 | 【全品种日评】 | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | | | IF2512 | | 美联储本次会后公布决定继续降息25bp,其发言 态度对通胀乐观,并将启动短债买入,超预期鸽 | | | 股指 | IH2512 | 顺周期领衔反弹,A股明显回暖 | 派,短期全球流动性预期改善,但日央行加息预期 | | | | IC2512 | | 影响叠加下,市场缺乏上涨合力,下方空间亦有限 | | | | IM2512 | | 。当前主线未明,谨慎观望为主。 | ...

流动性日报 | 2025-12-18 市场流动性概况 2025-12-17，股指板块成交9932.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+16.94%；持仓金额14186.88亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.84%；成交持仓比为70.51%。 国债板块成交3460.27亿元，较上一交易日变动-16.87%；持仓金额7431.97亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.16%；成交 持仓比为47.72%。 基本金属板块成交6315.92亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.43%；持仓金额6838.65亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.48%；成 交持仓比为99.61%。 贵金属板块成交9901.75亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.31%；持仓金额5185.53亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.18%；成交 持仓比为281.68%。 能源化工板块成交4344.09亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.36%；持仓金额4435.95亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.29%；成 交持仓比为86.51%。 农产品板块成交2924.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.45%；持仓金额5901.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.57%；成交 持仓比为44.22%。 黑色建材板块成交1733. ...

风险提示： 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 报告来源 报告导读： 美联储如期降息，贵金属及基本金属价格震荡走高。 贵金属：美联储降息催化，贵金属震荡上行。 美联储确认降息 25 个基点，且将根据需要启动短期美国国债购买操作，市场流动性预期良好，推动贵金属价 格稳步上行。由于库存扰动，伦敦现货白银价格突破 60 美元 / 盎司，并继续上行。预期圣诞节前，市场的流动性将保持宽松，贵金属价格将持续偏强。 铜：宏观扰动加大，铜价或震荡运行。 美联储如期并开始扩表，流动性趋宽，周内铜价创新高，但周五晚随着美 AI 担忧再起，叠加部分美联储官员放鹰，铜 价承压调整。近期美国 11 月非农就业人数， CPI 以及 PCE 等数据将公布，且日本议息会议将至，宏观影响加剧，铜价预计震荡为主。 铝：宏观提振下铝 价偏强运行，氧化铝价格持续承压。 宏观面上，美联储如期降息，铝价呈现震荡偏强走势。成本端，氧化铝供应过剩格局延续价格承压，叠加铝土矿绝对库 存量高位下，预计铝土矿价仍有下行空间。需求端，铝价高位与环保限产共塑淡季格局，铝加工开工率下滑至 61.8% 。 能源金属：需求强势，库存去化。 锂：上 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Neutral | Initial Rating [2] Core Insights - Brokerage business revenue is showing elasticity, with high trading volumes in stock funds directly boosting commission income, particularly benefiting brokers with a higher proportion of retail clients such as Dongfang Caifu, Huatai, and Guotai Junan [5] - Margin financing business is expected to restart expansion, with market activity and stabilized indices boosting financing demand; the current CSI 300 index has stabilized above 4,500 points, enhancing collateral value [5] - The current sector PE has not risen rapidly, indicating that funds are entering the market in a "trading" rather than "chasing high" manner, which is favorable for market sustainability and reduces the risk of brokers chasing high prices [5] - The fundamentals of the brokerage sector are stable and improving, with brokerage stocks exhibiting high beta characteristics; it is recommended to actively position in comprehensive leading brokers in the short term [5] Industry Fundamentals Tracking - SHIBOR 3M rate remained stable at 1.58%, reflecting a continued loose liquidity environment in the interbank market, consistent with the central bank's policy to smooth funding through open market operations [6][14] - The margin financing balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 25,014.04 billion, showing a slight decrease of 0.26% but remaining stable overall; this balance accounts for 2.54% of the A-share circulating market value, indicating neutral participation of leveraged funds [18] - Recent bond market indices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the China Bond New Comprehensive Index rising from 247.92 in early October to 248.83 by December 12, reflecting a liquidity-rich environment [19] - As of December 12, daily bond trading in the Shenzhen market reached 3,212.8 billion, while the Shanghai market reached 25.17 trillion, with repos dominating trading volume [19] Market Review - Last week, the A-share Shenwan Securities II industry index rose by 0.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.08%, with a relative outperformance of 0.39 percentage points [25] - In terms of industry ranking, the A-share Securities II ranked 8th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries, underperforming the non-bank financial sector [26] - The Hong Kong securities and brokerage sector rose by 2.254%, exceeding the overall financial sector's growth [26]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasury bonds have both rebounded, with inflation expectations remaining unchanged [1][14]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced and relatively loose. The yield spread between 10Y and 1Y bonds continues to widen [1][19]. Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with trading heat in sectors such as light industry, retail, military, textiles, communications, and real estate all above the 80th percentile [2][25]. - The volatility of major indices has generally increased, with the volatility of sectors like communications, electric power, and electronics remaining above the 80th historical percentile [2][31]. Institutional Research - Research activity is concentrated in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric power, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, with an upward trend in research heat for non-ferrous metals, computers, and textiles [3][42]. Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with increases in forecasts for sectors including pharmaceuticals, coal, automobiles, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemicals [4][21]. - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has increased across the A-share market [4][17]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, continuing to net sell A-shares. The ratio of buy/sell amounts in sectors like communications, electronics, and finance has increased, while it has decreased in electric power, chemicals, and automobiles [5][31]. - Northbound trading primarily net bought sectors such as communications, machinery, and home appliances, while net selling occurred in pharmaceuticals, computers, and electronics [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - The activity of margin financing has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level since late July 2025. The main net purchases were in sectors like electronics, communications, and military [6][39]. - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, retail, and electronics has increased [6][38]. Hot Stocks Trading - The trading volume on the "Dragon and Tiger List" has increased, with sectors like retail, light industry, and electric power showing relatively high and rising trading volumes [7][41]. Active Equity Fund Positioning - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, with significant increases in positions in sectors like pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and retail [8][45]. - The correlation of actively managed equity funds with mid/small-cap growth and mid-cap value has increased, while the correlation with large-cap growth and large/small-cap value has decreased [8][48]. - The scale of newly established equity funds has continued to decline, with both active and passive fund sizes decreasing [8][50].

以下文章来源于广发期货研究 ，作者广发期货研究所 广发期货研究 . 推送广发期货研究所的最新报告和观点 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 行情导读： 隔夜，美联储降息叠加启动RMP债券购买的偏鸽派行动对市场影响持续发酵叠加COMEX白银交割月行 情 的 演 绎 ， 海 外 市 场 情 绪 高 涨 的 带 动 内 外 盘 白 银 价 格 继 续 摸 高 。 12 月 12 日 ， 日 盘 ， 沪 银 主 力 合 约 AG2602涨幅接近4%，收盘报14892元/千克，价格持续上涨带来波动率的走强，白银VIX波动率指数维 持在40%的高位。 数据来源：文华财经 驱动分析一：美国储宽松预期持续升温，流动性改善支持资金流向贵金属 美联储周四凌晨如期宣布降息25个基点将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5%-3.75%，年内累计降息达75 个基点。值得注意的是决议上宣布当月启动400亿美元的短期国债购买用于准备金管理，在关键时间保障市 场流动性。 从市场反应来看，本次降息叠加启动 RMP债券购买的偏鸽派行动具有重要意义，尽管区别于购买长债的QE 扩表，但美联储的 RMP短债购买措施将持续到明年二季度，购债规模可能维持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report presents the market liquidity situation of various sectors on December 11, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day for multiple sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials [1][2] 2. Stock Index Plate - On December 11, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 621.504 billion yuan, a - 1.77% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1318.4 billion yuan, a - 2.30% change; the trading - holding ratio was 46.68% [1] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - On December 11, 2025, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 364.789 billion yuan, a + 1.02% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 750.457 billion yuan, a + 1.44% change; the trading - holding ratio was 48.53% [1] 4. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - On December 11, 2025, the trading volume of the basic metal plate was 534.275 billion yuan, a - 0.17% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 680.854 billion yuan, a + 1.09% change; the trading - holding ratio was 78.67%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 848.69 billion yuan, a - 2.04% change; the holding amount was 487.153 billion yuan, a + 0.59% change; the trading - holding ratio was 257.46% [1] 5. Energy Chemical Plate - On December 11, 2025, the trading volume of the energy chemical plate was 493.718 billion yuan, a + 9.61% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 459.957 billion yuan, a + 0.73% change; the trading - holding ratio was 96.67% [1] 6. Agricultural Product Plate - On December 11, 2025, the trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 357.572 billion yuan, a - 4.11% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 600.746 billion yuan, a + 1.03% change; the trading - holding ratio was 54.09% [1] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - On December 11, 2025, the trading volume of the black building materials plate was 257.89 billion yuan, a - 7.85% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 333.578 billion yuan, a - 0.63% change; the trading - holding ratio was 71.79% [2]

今日周四(12月11日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于62.32一线上方，今日开盘于61.80美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报62.68美元/盎司，上涨1.45%，最高触及62.87美元/盎司，最低下探61.61美元/盎 司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 其中，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德主张维持利率不变，而美联储理事米伦则希 望更大幅度降息50个基点。这种分歧凸显了美联储内部对经济前景的不同看法。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 同时，美联储还启动了技术性购债操作，以维护市场流动性。这些决策不仅反映出美联储对就业市场和 通胀的密切关注，也引发了市场广泛反应，包括股市上涨、美元走软以及国债收益率下跌。 美联储在会议结束后发布的政策声明中，将基准政策利率下调了25个基点，至3.50%-3.75%的区间。这 一决定并非全票通过，而是引发了三位决策者的异议。 从三个月的时间维度(对数坐标)来看，白银价格一举突破了自上世纪80年代形成的、长达45年的阻力区 间，成功站稳55美元关口。这一突破若能得到有效确认，将为国际白银后续上行奠定重要基础。 具体来看，若后续涨势动能减弱，55 ...

Group 1: Copper - Copper prices showed a weak fluctuation overnight, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and initiate short-term U.S. Treasury purchases [3][10] - The LME copper inventory decreased by 700 tons to 164,975 tons, while COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,922 tons to 403,852 tons [10] - The overall outlook for copper prices is cautiously optimistic, supported by fundamentals (inventory) and macroeconomic conditions [10] Group 2: Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel prices fell by 0.51% to $14,675 per ton, while SHFE nickel prices dropped by 0.72% to 116,100 yuan per ton [4][11] - LME nickel inventory increased by 564 tons to 253,092 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 126 tons to 34,235 tons [11] - The nickel-iron and stainless steel supply chain shows a slight increase in nickel-iron prices, but the price ceiling remains limited [11] Group 3: Aluminum & Alumina - Alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at 2,509 yuan per ton, up 0.2% [6][12] - SHFE aluminum prices increased to 21,960 yuan per ton, with a 0.18% rise, while aluminum alloy prices rose by 0.64% to 20,981 yuan per ton [6][12] - The supply of alumina remains high, leading to continuous inventory pressure, while aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and copper price movements [6][13] Group 4: Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a weak fluctuation, with the main contract closing at 8,250 yuan per ton, down 2.19% [7][14] - Polysilicon prices increased slightly, with the main contract closing at 55,915 yuan per ton, up 1.62% [14] - The photovoltaic industry continues to experience high inventory levels and a downward price trend, with industrial silicon production reductions not meeting the decline in downstream demand [14] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures increased by 2.56% to 95,980 yuan per ton, while the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 50 yuan to 92,700 yuan per ton [8][15] - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 120 tons [15] - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,336 tons to 113,602 tons, but demand is showing signs of weakening, which may affect the pace of inventory reduction [15]