美国天然气市场遭遇极端波动已逾一周，交易员们仍对一场技术故障怒火中烧，称其在这一核心大宗商 品市场引发了全面混乱。 1 月 27 日，天然气期货价格创纪录飙升，纽约商品交易所却在收盘阶段罕见触发了两分钟的交易停 盘。这一操作扭曲了结算价格，也让本就因寒潮颠覆需求前景而倍感焦虑的交易员们陷入困惑。此次市 场停盘本应仅持续 5 秒，却是该交易所单日触发的第 9 次熔断。 美国银行全球大宗商品交易主管乔治・库特拉罗在接受采访时表示："那天显然有环节出现了严重的操 作故障，这一问题极有可能影响了当日的市场交易结果。" 本报采访了 10 位交易员，据他们透露，这一事件让部分投资者蒙受了损失，也让另一些人对市场的公 正性产生了质疑。 纽约商品交易所的运营方芝商所集团已告知交易员，此次熔断超时是由 "技术错误" 导致的，但对于故 障具体原因及其对投资者造成的影响，芝商所集团拒绝置评。美国商品期货交易委员会则表示，此次市 场波动及相应的熔断触发，均与近期的供需变化基本相符，并补充称正持续评估相关交易活动。 成空的 "彩票式" 押注 这场故障引发的混乱，不仅波及天然气期货市场，还蔓延至期权市场。在 1 月 27 日之前，大量交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China, established in July 2021, has made significant progress but faces challenges such as insufficient market liquidity and pronounced tidal phenomena. The weak financial attributes of the market are identified as a key reason for this liquidity issue. The article suggests measures to enhance market liquidity and price discovery, including the introduction of financial institutions and carbon financial derivatives, drawing lessons from the EU carbon market experience [1][4][10]. Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - China has built the largest carbon market globally, covering approximately 4.5 billion tons of CO2 emissions from 2,162 key emission units in the power generation sector [3][4]. - The first administrative regulation in the carbon trading sector, the "Interim Regulations on Carbon Emission Trading," will take effect in May 2024, establishing the legal attributes and trading rules for carbon emissions [4]. - By March 2025, the national carbon market will include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, increasing the number of key emission units to about 3,700 and covering over 8 billion tons of CO2 emissions, accounting for more than 60% of China's total emissions [4]. Group 2: Market Liquidity Issues - The national carbon market's trading volume in 2023 was 2.12 million tons, with a turnover rate of approximately 3%, significantly lower than the EU carbon market's 93 billion tons and 417% turnover rate [4][5]. - The market exhibits tidal phenomena, with trading volumes concentrated in the fourth quarter, particularly near compliance deadlines, leading to low activity during non-compliance periods [4][8]. - The lack of financial attributes and the limited participation of financial institutions contribute to the market's low liquidity and price discovery issues [8][9]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - Establish a collaborative regulatory mechanism between environmental and financial authorities to enhance the financial attributes of the carbon market, which could improve liquidity and price discovery [15]. - Gradually introduce financial institutions into the carbon market, starting with a few qualified entities to provide market-making services, followed by expanding the range of eligible investors as the market matures [16]. - Accelerate the development of standardized carbon financial derivatives, such as carbon futures, to improve market liquidity and reduce price volatility [17].

Core Viewpoint - The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) plans to collect and publicly disclose all trading data for London-listed stocks across various trading venues to address concerns over perceived "severe underreporting" of market liquidity, which has led some companies to shift their listings to the US [1] Group 1 - The FCA's unconventional plan involves gathering and publishing comprehensive trading data from exchanges and dark pools, reflecting the regulator's frustration with misleading and overly negative portrayals of UK market liquidity [1] - FCA's interim market supervisor, Simon Wals, stated that the actual liquidity in the UK market is significantly higher than commonly reported, calling the misinterpretation "absurd" [1]

流动性日报 | 2026-02-09 市场流动性概况 2026-02-06，股指板块成交9254.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.21%；持仓金额16736.61亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.38%；成交持仓比为54.57%。 国债板块成交4263.23亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.29%；持仓金额9155.88亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.90%；成交持 仓比为46.67%。 基本金属板块成交8776.26亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.64%；持仓金额6380.01亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.07%；成 交持仓比为146.35%。 贵金属板块成交14631.34亿元，较上一交易日变动-28.56%；持仓金额4877.74亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.50%；成 交持仓比为378.51%。 能源化工板块成交5435.72亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.90%；持仓金额4862.82亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.27%；成 交持仓比为99.16%。 农产品板块成交2096.30亿元，较上一交易日变动-31.97%；持仓金额6117.56亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.09%；成交 持仓比为32.33%。 黑色建材板块成交1753 ...

ATFX：周四的美股和贵金属市场共同经历震荡下跌，尽管美国1月份的职位空缺数量创下2020年以来的 最低水平，加上各公司宣布1月份裁员人数创下2009年以来的最高纪录，失业救济申请人数也随之上 升，悲观情绪进一步加剧。但是美元的加速反弹以及乌克兰与俄罗斯结束了第二轮由美国斡旋的会谈， 加上芝商所进一步上调黄金白银保证金，贵金属价格遭到了拖累。 据彭博社数据，由于市场规模较小且流动性相对不足，白银的价格波动一直比黄金更为剧烈。但近期白 银价格的波动幅度之大、速度之快，堪称1980年以来之最，而投机热潮和场外交易量减少更是加剧了这 一现象。机构指出，当市场波动加剧时，做市商自然会扩大买卖价差并减少资产负债表的使用，导致流 动性在最需要的时候反而最为疲弱。 1月份，投资者大量买入贵金属，涌入杠杆型交易所交易产品和看涨期权。然而，这波涨势在上周末戛 然而止，白银在1月30日创下有史以来最大单日跌幅，黄金也遭遇了自2013年以来的最大跌幅。此后， 市场波动剧烈。流动性更强的黄金市场表现优于白银市场。本周，许多银行和资产管理公司重申了对黄 金长期前景的乐观预期。 在经过了剧烈震荡后，黄金周线已经提前锁定了两连跌，为去年1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are experiencing extreme volatility, with a significant drop of nearly 10% followed by a rapid rebound, indicating a lack of bottom support in the market [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - During the Asian trading session on Friday, spot silver prices rose by 6.2% after previously falling to around $64 per ounce; the day before, silver had plummeted by 20%, erasing all gains from the previous month [1][6]. - The volatility in silver prices is exacerbated by the market's smaller size and relatively low liquidity, making silver's price fluctuations more severe than those of gold [1][6]. - Recent silver price movements are among the most extreme since 1980, with speculative momentum and reduced off-exchange liquidity amplifying the volatility [1][8]. - Since reaching a historical high on January 29, silver prices have declined by over one-third [1][8]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors have been increasing large positions in precious metals, particularly in leveraged exchange-traded products and call options throughout January, but this trend abruptly halted with a record single-day drop in silver on January 30 [3][8]. - A significant reduction in Chinese buying has left silver without support, with domestic silver prices shifting from a premium to a discount relative to international benchmarks [3][8]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver holdings have fallen to their lowest level in over four years, indicating ongoing position liquidations [3][8]. - Analysts note that long positions are being liquidated while short positions are being closed for profit, especially as the Chinese New Year approaches [3][8]. Group 3: Comparison with Gold - The gold market, which has better liquidity, is performing better than silver, with several banks and asset management firms reaffirming a long-term bullish outlook on gold [5][10]. - A fund manager from Fidelity, who sold gold before the recent drop, is preparing to buy again, while the head of commodity investment at Pacific Investment Management Company believes the upward trend in gold remains intact [5][10]. - However, the extreme volatility in precious metals raises concerns about their effectiveness as a risk hedge, with some strategists suggesting that Bitcoin may have greater long-term appeal than gold [5][10]. - As of 2:25 PM Singapore time, spot silver rose by 4.5% to $74.09 per ounce, while spot gold increased by 1.7% to $4,860.27 per ounce [5][10].

现货黄金一度向下跌破4700美元，日内下跌近2%。 截止发稿，现货白银、现货黄金的跌幅均有所收窄。 近期，现货白银跌势持续超过黄金，金银比回升至70关口，为两个月以来新高。 贵金属市场历史性抛售重演。 继前一交易日暴跌近20%后，现货白银今日继续暴跌。 今早，现货白银一度失守67美元/盎司，日内跌幅近8%，较1月29日创下的历史高点回落逾40%。 目前，白银年内涨幅已被完全抹平，市场陷入自1980年以来未见的剧烈动荡。 华侨银行策略师表示，括地区股市和金属在内，多数资产类别的市场情绪均显低迷，在市场流动性不足的背景下，形成了负向反馈循环。 崩盘背后 由于中东等地缘局势有所降温，美国经济数据展现韧性削弱了避险需求。 一方面，美伊核问题谈判在即，白宫表示外交手段仍是首选。 当地时间2月5日，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特回应有关原定于土耳其举行、后改至阿曼的美伊核问题会谈安排时表示，特朗普始终将外交作为处理国际事务 的"首要选项"。 莱维特称，特朗普对伊朗的核心立场非常明确——伊朗必须实现"零核能力"。 同时警告表示，在外交努力推进的同时，伊朗方面不应忽视特朗普作为美国三军统帅所掌握的"多种选项"。 另外，美联储降息预期 ...

流动性日报 | 2026-02-06 市场流动性概况 2026-02-05，股指板块成交9055.31亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.23%；持仓金额16801.04亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.20%；成交持仓比为53.17%。 国债板块成交4318.79亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.52%；持仓金额8984.81亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.92%；成交 持仓比为47.84%。 基本金属板块成交9107.79亿元，较上一交易日变动+16.13%；持仓金额6650.98亿元，较上一交易日变动-5.77%； 成交持仓比为131.83%。 贵金属板块成交20479.55亿元，较上一交易日变动+54.85%；持仓金额5330.78亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.83%；成 交持仓比为470.08%。 能源化工板块成交5715.84亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.51%；持仓金额4925.13亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.09%；成 交持仓比为101.73%。 农产品板块成交3081.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+31.46%；持仓金额6184.76亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.12%；成 交持仓比为48.20%。 黑色建材板块成交2 ...

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、成交量下降，杠杆资金流出，市场起了新变化 2、避开炒作，寻找"正主" 今天国内市场整体出现了小幅回落，而且有一个迹象是：市场整体流动性的"兴奋程度"也在下降。具体 指标是，成交量回落至2.18万亿元，为最近一段时间的低位。从行业赛道的表现也能感受到，投资者的 参与热情有所降温——前期涨幅较大的一些明星赛道纷纷回调。 从这些迹象是否可以认为，2月份当前的行情仍处于非常谨慎甚至悲观的状态？我们一起来梳理今天的 内容，为大家提供一些新的线索。 首先，我们先说结论：目前2月份整体市场仍然偏向稳定向上，这一趋势大概率尚未被打断。尤其是 在"国家队"资金的减持已接近完成并进入收尾阶段后，市场上的抛压明显减弱。当然，市场需要一定时 间来适应这种节奏的转换，但确实已发生了一些变化——这些变化可能意味着不同行业、不同赛道正在 发生切换：资金正从前期被炒作的板块中退出，转向那些更具业绩支撑、或在2026年具备更稳健增长前 景的赛道。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the decline in three-month copper prices due to a stronger dollar and increased metal supply in exchange inventories, with copper closing at $13,044.50 per ton, down $433.50 or 3.22% [1][2] - The copper market has seen a cumulative decline of 10% since reaching a historical high of $14,527.50 per ton, driven by speculation from precious metals markets and concerns over weak demand and rising inventories [3] - The LME copper inventory has increased to its highest level since March 2025, reaching 155,725 tons, further intensifying pressure on copper prices [6] Group 2 - Other base metals also experienced fluctuations, with three-month nickel down 0.39% to $17,379 per ton, while Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 nickel price forecast due to a decrease in Indonesian nickel supply [7][8] - Three-month aluminum fell by 1.19% to $3,069.50 per ton, and three-month zinc decreased by 0.88% to $3,309.00 per ton, indicating a general downward trend in base metal prices [8] - Three-month lead saw a slight increase of 0.15%, closing at $1,966.50 per ton, while three-month tin dropped by 3.9% to $48,160 per ton [9][10]