Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily of November 26, 2024, focusing on the cotton and cotton yarn markets [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13625 with a decrease of 20, and its trading volume was 172,621 with a decrease of 65278 [2] Spot Market - Spot prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided, such as the CCIndex3128B at 14882 yuan/ton with an increase of 89, and the CY IndexC32S at 20660 yuan/ton with no change [2] Spread Market - Different spreads, including cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - product spreads, are given. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton is 40 with a decrease of 25, and the CY01 - CF01 spread is 6445 with an increase of 25 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - The average temperature and rainfall in the main US cotton - producing areas have increased. As of November 23, the cotton harvest rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states is 79%, slower than last year and the five - year average. The 2025/26 cotton prices and transaction basis in Xinjiang are also reported [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be lower than previously thought. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate within a limited range [5] Trading Strategies - For the single - side trading, it is expected that US cotton will fluctuate within a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will also show a fluctuating trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The night - session of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a fluctuating trend. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders. The inventory of pure cotton yarn continued to rise. The price of pure cotton yarn was stable with a weakening trend. The demand for all - cotton clothing grey cloth was weak [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - The data of several cotton options contracts, including the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other indicators, are provided. For example, the CF601C13400.CZC contract closed at 183.00 with a 71.0% increase, and its implied volatility was 6.7% [11] Volatility and Strategy - The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly. The implied volatilities of different options contracts are reported. The PCR values of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for options trading [11][12][13] Group 5: Related Attachments - There are multiple charts showing the spreads between domestic and foreign cotton markets, cotton basis at different months, spreads between cotton and cotton yarn, and spreads between different cotton futures contracts [14][18][23][25]

Core Viewpoint - Traders are increasingly adopting safer strategies in response to anticipated oversupply in the oil market, shifting towards spread trading and options trading to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical uncertainties and potential supply disruptions [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The oil market is experiencing a tug-of-war between supply risks from oil-rich countries like Russia and Venezuela and the growing supply from OPEC+ and beyond, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicting record oversupply by 2026 [4]. - Over 1 billion barrels of oil are currently in transit globally, awaiting final destinations, indicating significant market activity and uncertainty [4]. - The market sentiment is described as "confused," with traders caught between bullish and bearish positions, as evidenced by the balanced open interest in call and put options for Brent and WTI crude [5]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - Traders are increasingly betting on short-term price declines through calendar spread options, reflecting a growing expectation of falling oil prices amid ongoing negotiations between Ukraine and Russia [4][5]. - The increase in positions betting on WTI crude's near-month contract being lower than the far-month contract indicates a cautious approach, while significant open interest also exists for positions anticipating a rise in price spreads [5]. - The latest sanctions against Russian oil companies are altering trade flows, with Russian oil prices hitting a two-and-a-half-year low, yet these discounts have not attracted Asian buyers [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts at JPMorgan expect oil prices to gradually decline, suggesting strategies such as Brent crude put spreads and ratio put spreads to navigate the market [8].

Core Insights - Kohl's Corp (NYSE: KSS) stock surged 29% to $20.20 following a surprise third-quarter profit, reporting earnings per share of 10 cents on revenue of $3.58 billion, significantly exceeding estimates of -19 cents per share [1] - The company has raised its full-year guidance, indicating positive future expectations [1] Stock Performance - Prior to the recent increase, KSS struggled to surpass the $17.50 resistance level but is now 50% higher for 2025 [2] - The stock has found support at the $15 floor, and the recent boost marks its best performance since July [2] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts exhibit skepticism with eight "holds," one "sell," and four "strong sells," reflecting a bearish sentiment towards the stock [2] - There is potential for upgrades if the stock continues to outperform [2] Short Interest - Currently, 29.29 million shares are sold short, representing 27% of the stock's total available float [3] - Short interest has decreased by 15% in the latest reporting period, indicating it would take shorts nearly five days to cover their positions [3] Options Activity - The 10-day put/call volume ratio for KSS stands at 1.75, suggesting that traders have purchased nearly two puts for every call in the past two weeks [4] - This ratio is in the 100th percentile of its annual range, indicating a heightened appetite for bearish bets recently [4]

Group 1 - Concerns are rising among traders that the recent rally in U.S. stocks may be coming to an end, prompting them to seek hedging protection despite the S&P 500 index being up over 12% year-to-date [1] - The options prices for the Nasdaq 100 ETF are nearing their highest levels since August 2024, indicating increased demand for hedging against potential declines [1] - The S&P 500 index recently experienced its largest weekly volatility since June, highlighting market uncertainty despite strong earnings from companies like Nvidia [1] Group 2 - Market panic was evident last Thursday, with significant fluctuations in stock prices following Nvidia's earnings report, leading to the highest volatility index (VIX) levels since April [4] - Vuk Vukovic, CIO of Oraclum Capital, noted that the market pressure is beneficial for volatility buyers, as increased volatility can lead to maximum returns [4] - The volatility risk premium remains high, with a notable gap between implied and actual volatility, suggesting ongoing market apprehension [4] Group 3 - Barclays strategists described the recent market decline as "manageable," attributing it to concerns over an AI bubble and weakened retail investor confidence [7] - The decline in tech stocks coincided with a significant drop in Bitcoin prices, which has become increasingly correlated with the Nasdaq 100 index [7] - Vukovic emphasized that Bitcoin is now viewed as a pure risk asset by Wall Street options traders, rather than a hedge against market volatility [7] Group 4 - The put-call spread for the iShares Bitcoin ETF has increased, indicating investor concerns about further price declines, despite the fund receiving over $27.6 billion in inflows this year [9] - An investor executed a risk reversal strategy in the Bitcoin ETF to protect against a potential drop in Bitcoin prices, reflecting a cautious approach to market movements [11] Group 5 - Some traders began to cash in on bets for higher volatility following significant price swings, with a notable volume of VIX options being sold [14] - Fishman, a former Goldman Sachs strategist, suggested that while some investors are liquidating hedging strategies, many others are simultaneously increasing their risk protection measures [14]

Core Viewpoint - T-Mobile US Inc (NASDAQ:TMUS) is experiencing a decline in stock price following a downgrade by Oppenheimer, which cited slowing industry subscriber growth as a concern for the company's ability to meet subscriber and free cash flow estimates [1]. Stock Performance - T-Mobile's stock has been volatile, reaching a one-year low of $199.41 on November 6 after peaking at $276.49 in March. The stock is down approximately 5% year-to-date [2]. Options Trading Activity - Options traders are showing bullish sentiment, with a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.94, indicating significant buying activity. This ratio is the highest compared to all readings from the past year. Additionally, T-Mobile's put/call open interest ratio of 0.45 is in the lowest percentile of its annual range, further reflecting a positive outlook [3]. Volatility Expectations - T-Mobile's stock has historically exceeded options traders' volatility expectations, as indicated by a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) rating of 91 out of 100 [4].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Views - Short - term, after a rapid price drop, the spot and futures are stabilizing near integer levels. The overall supply of asphalt has increased due to the resumption of production at some refineries this week. Demand has improved as prices declined, mainly consuming social inventory, with no significant end - of - peak - season performance. The inventory structure has improved, with a slight increase in refinery inventory and a decline in social inventory. The cost of crude oil has been fluctuating weakly recently, and the spot basis has been weakening. In the long - term, demand in the north will end as the temperature drops, while in the south, post - rainfall catch - up demand may boost consumption. The peak season of asphalt has no unexpected performance. Short - term, attention should be paid to winter storage, and the adjustment of refinery prices may be the valuation anchor for BU01. Due to geopolitical disturbances in crude oil, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Asphalt Price and Risk Management Price Information - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.33% [2]. - On November 21, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3030 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3240 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 90 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot price was 3020 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the South China spot price was 3150 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [2][6][9]. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, for a long spot position: - Short 25% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - Sell 20% of call options (bu2512C3500) at 30 - 40 yuan to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and hoping to purchase according to orders, for a short spot position: - Buy 50% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. - Sell 20% of put options (bu2512C3500) at 25 - 35 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Group 5: Other Information - There are various seasonal charts including asphalt 12 - contract basis seasonality in different regions (Shandong, North China, Yangtze River Delta, Northeast), asphalt futures month - spread seasonality (03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12), domestic asphalt refinery inventory rate seasonality, domestic asphalt social inventory rate seasonality, and asphalt warehouse and refinery warehouse receipt quantity seasonality [10][11][13][15][17][18][20][22][23].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol market continues to show a weak trend. The international device operating rate has increased, the supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable. Although the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, the arrival volume is expected to rise further, and the MTO start - up has slightly declined. The domestic supply is loose, but the inland price is relatively firm due to factors such as stable MTO start - up and large - scale device shutdown. With the upcoming gas - limiting season in Iran and the weakening impact of external factors, methanol will mainly maintain a weak trend [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: The futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 2004, down 7 or 0.35% [2]. - Spot market: Different regions have different price quotations. For example, in production areas, the price in Inner Mongolia's southern line is 1920 yuan/ton, and in consumption areas, the price in southern Shandong is 2070 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information In the current cycle (20251115 - 20251121), the international (ex - China) methanol production is 1068585 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate is 73.25%, remaining flat compared to last week [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply side: The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 320 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously abundant with a high and stable operating rate [4]. - Import side: The US dollar price has been falling, imports are in a positive spread situation, the external market operating rate is rising, and there is a large amount of non - Iranian supply [4]. - Demand side: The MTO device operating rate has rebounded, and some MTO devices are operating stably or with insufficient loads [4]. - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, the basis is strong, and the inland enterprise inventory fluctuates slightly [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Stop profit on short positions [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell call options [6].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Pioneer Futures Options Daily Report - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [1] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various options, including their implied volatility, historical volatility, and real - time volatility. It also offers trading suggestions for volatility trading and presents potential returns from risk - free arbitrage for different options [3][6][25] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Shanghai Stock Exchange Options 4.1.1 SSE 50 ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main SSE 50 ETF options was 908,595 lots, the open interest was 701,421 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options was 1.1, and the weighted average implied volatility was 18.16% [22] - **Volatility Trading**: Suggestions include selling options in months with higher implied volatility curves and buying those in lower - curve months; selling options with higher points on the curve and buying those with lower points in the same month [25] - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity was 46.1% at the settlement price and 12.2% at the counter - price [28][30] 4.1.2 Huatai - Berry SSE 300 ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main 300ETF options was 1,203,063 lots, the open interest was 620,275 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options was 0.97, and the weighted average implied volatility was 21.04% [33] - **Volatility Trading**: Similar trading suggestions as for SSE 50 ETF [37] - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity was 27.1% at the settlement price and 6.71% at the counter - price [40][41] 4.1.3 Southern CSI 500 ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main 500ETF options was 1,702,591 lots, the open interest was 637,658 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options was 0.83, and the weighted average implied volatility was 22.91% [44] - **Volatility Trading**: Similar trading suggestions as above [45] - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity was 43.5% at the settlement price and 8.53% at the counter - price [49][51] 4.1.4 Huaxia SSE STAR Market 50 ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main STAR Market 50 ETF options was 1,306,790 lots, the open interest was 1,082,160 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options was 1.09, and the weighted average implied volatility was 35.43% [53] - **Volatility Trading**: Similar trading suggestions as before [58] - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity was 70.3% at the settlement price and 4.82% at the counter - price [60][61] 4.1.5 E Fund SSE STAR Market 50 ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main STAR Market 50 ETF options was 259,342 lots, the open interest was 279,151 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options was 1.23, and the weighted average implied volatility was 36.91% [64] - **Volatility Trading**: Similar trading suggestions as other ETFs [67] - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity was 39.3% at the settlement price and 7.89% at the counter - price [71][73] 4.2 Shenzhen Stock Exchange Options 4.2.1 Harvest SSE 300 ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main Shenzhen 300ETF options was 232,702 lots, the open interest was 169,070 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options was 0.94, and the weighted average implied volatility was 25.18% [76] - **Volatility Trading**: Similar trading suggestions as other ETFs [81] - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity was 93.5% at the settlement price and 17.4% at the counter - price [84][86] 4.2.2 E Fund ChiNext ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main ChiNext ETF options was 2,476,097 lots, the open interest was 1,141,324 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options was 1.04, and the weighted average implied volatility was 34.8% [89] - **Volatility Trading**: Similar trading suggestions as other ETFs [93] - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: Not fully presented in a clear form in the report 4.3 Options Volatility Ranking - The report ranks various options based on their at - the - money implied volatility, 30 - day historical volatility, and real - time volatility. For example, lc2601 ranked first in at - the - money implied volatility, 30 - day historical volatility, and real - time volatility [3]

Group 1 - Options provide flexibility and diversity, allowing investors to choose different contracts and strategies based on their risk preferences and market expectations [3] - Options assist in risk management, as the maximum loss for the buyer is limited to the premium paid, enabling hedging without significant losses [3][8] - Options enhance capital efficiency, requiring less capital compared to directly purchasing underlying assets, thus offering opportunities for high returns with lower investment [3][6] Group 2 - Options have high leverage without the risk of margin calls, allowing investors to achieve high returns with minimal investment while controlling maximum losses [7] - Options serve as a "regret remedy," enabling investors to hedge against market downturns while still participating in potential upswings [8] - The characteristics of options, such as limited risk, leverage, flexible strategies, hedging capabilities, and low costs, make them attractive to investors [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces the Short Collar strategy as a balanced approach for investors who have short positions in stocks, allowing them to earn income during sideways market conditions while hedging against potential price spikes [2]. Strategy Composition - The Short Collar strategy consists of shorting the underlying stock, selling out-of-the-money (OTM) put options, and buying OTM call options, all with the same expiration date [2]. - This strategy aims to generate income through the premium received from selling puts while providing downside protection through the purchased calls [2]. Investment Significance - The strategy is particularly useful when the stock price is expected to remain stable or decline slightly, allowing investors to earn "interest" while hedging against significant upward movements [2][8]. - The initial income from the strategy is derived from the net premium received from selling puts minus the premium paid for calls [5]. Profit and Loss Analysis - The maximum loss is capped when the stock price exceeds the call strike price, calculated as the difference between the call strike price and the initial stock price, adjusted for net premium income [6][10]. - The maximum profit is limited to the difference between the initial stock price and the put strike price, plus net premium income, occurring when the stock price falls below the put strike price [6][10]. Strategy Characteristics - The strategy has low cost and risk, often resulting in a net income at the outset, and the call option limits potential losses from significant price increases [6][8]. - It is a neutral or slightly bearish strategy, suitable for stocks expected to trade sideways or decline slightly without breaching the put strike price [8]. Practical Application Example - An example is provided where a stock priced at $196.5 is shorted, with puts sold at a strike price of $185 and calls bought at a strike price of $215, resulting in an initial net income of $720 [8][10]. - The breakeven point for profitability is calculated as $197.2, meaning the stock price must remain below this level for the strategy to yield a profit [10]. Recommendations for Different Risk Preferences - Investors should choose put and call strike prices based on their risk tolerance, balancing premium income against potential future gains from stock price movements [13]. - It is advised that new investors do not sell puts exceeding their short stock positions to avoid excessive risk exposure [14].