二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 国债期货周报 | | 唐立 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 | Tangli2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | 报告导读： | | | | | ◼ 摘要： 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 ◼ 国债期货长端合约周度回落。 ◼ 周内全球权益市场回调，出现流动性危机信号。 ◼ 维持中期大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 期货研究 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 本周国债期货市场呈现震荡分化格局，短端品种相对稳定，长端品种受政策预期与权益市场扰动波动 加剧。央行重启 8000 亿元 6 个月期买断式逆回购操作，释放流动性呵护信号，但政策协同效应（如专项 债发行）削弱了供给冲击。展望未来，利率债与国债期货的分歧点将在于政策上对于内需激发、反内卷的 期待与宏观基本面相对疲弱下的交织情景。整体看移仓换 ...

《美股史诗级暴跌：英伟达"利好出尽"引爆九重雷，高盛预警市场进入"脆弱临界点"》 一、黑色星期五：2万亿美元市值蒸发背后的连锁反应 2025年11月21日，美股上演了自2024年红海危机以来最惊心动魄的暴跌。标普500指数盘中振幅达2.87%， 纳斯达克100指数单日重挫2.4%，市值蒸发超2万亿美元；英伟达股价从一度上涨5%到收盘暴跌7%，市值 单日缩水4000亿美元，创下年内最大跌幅。比特币同步崩盘，跌破9万美元心理关口，24小时内超24.5万人 爆仓，9.3亿美元本金灰飞烟灭。这场暴跌不仅暴露了市场对AI泡沫的深度焦虑，更揭示了全球资本市场的 结构性脆弱。 导火索：英伟达的"利好悖论" 作为AI赛道领头羊，英伟达交出了一份"完美答卷"：Q3营收570亿美元（同比+62%）、数据中心业务增长 66%、毛利率74.8%，并宣称获得5000亿美元AI芯片订单。然而，市场却以暴跌回应——财报发布后，英 伟达股价从涨超5%急转直下，最终收跌3%，成为"利好出尽"的典型案例。高盛分析师指出："当市场提前 透支所有利好，财报反而成为多头撤退的信号。" 二、高盛预警的"九重雷区"：市场为何不堪一击？ 高盛合伙人John ...

叙利亚近期出现严重现金短缺、银行提款受限、电子支付卡顿的情况。民众日常生活因此陷入困境。专家指出，这是战争、制裁与货币政策失 衡叠加作用下爆发的又一个危机。 总台报道员 兰达：叙利亚经济正遭受多重危机，其中包括严重的现金短缺。这只是一个饱受多年战争和制裁摧残的经济体所面临的众多问题 之一。 在大马士革，自动取款机前排队已成常态。许多市民为了取到少量现金，不得不多次往返城市的不同地点。银行网点间歇性停电、网络不稳， 加剧了提款难的问题。 大马士革市民 马哈茂德·阿里：我们有时不得不从很远的地方来好几次。而且正如你所看到的，自动取款机前排起了长队。这是由于几个原因 造成的，有时网络中断，有时停电。此外，每个公民一天只允许取款三次。 叙利亚经济学者普遍担忧，当前的流动性危机可能会向更广泛的金融与社会系统蔓延，打击本已脆弱的叙利亚经济。 专家指出，现金短缺的直接诱因，是叙利亚中央银行为稳定叙镑汇率大幅收紧流动性，冻结了市场部分现金投放。然而，在支付系统不完善的 情况下，这一政策反而导致经济活动停摆，企业无法发薪、商户无法进货，物价波动也因此更加剧烈。 叙利亚经济分析师 阿马尔·优素福：实际情况是中央银行冻结了流动性， ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant decline in BTC price, breaking below $100,000, raises concerns about global financial market liquidity [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On November 14, both spot gold and BTC prices experienced a drop of over 3%, closing down more than 2% [4] - Investors are increasingly worried about liquidity issues in the global financial market, prompting a discussion on the principles of cyclical liquidity crises [6] Group 2: Safe-Haven Assets - The concept of "safe-haven assets" is critiqued, highlighting that true safe-haven assets are cash, short-term bonds, and money market funds, rather than gold and BTC [7] - The article illustrates a scenario where investors replace cash with safe-haven assets, leading to a distorted pricing framework for risk assets [9][10] Group 3: Historical Context and Evolution - The article references Ray Dalio's strategy of shorting cash, which has evolved into a widespread practice among investors, leading to inflated prices for gold and BTC [16][20] - The historical context of credit default swaps (CDS) during the 2008 financial crisis is compared to the current reliance on gold and BTC as safe-haven assets, indicating a cycle of moral hazard [27][29] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been pressured by the "too big to fail" logic, with financial institutions evolving from needing a single "emperor" to a complex web of interconnected entities [30][31] - Despite the Fed's tight monetary policy, financial institutions have found ways to circumvent these restrictions, leading to the creation of "fake cash" through safe-haven assets [32][34] Group 5: Future Implications - The inevitability of intermittent liquidity crises is emphasized, suggesting that without significant crises, the financial system cannot compel the Fed to convert "fake money" into "real money" [37]

Market Overview - The market has experienced a significant decline, returning to a rating of 4.4 stars [1] - The CSI All Share Index has reverted to its early September levels [2] - All market caps have seen declines, with small-cap stocks experiencing the largest drop [3] - Value style stocks have declined less than growth style stocks, which have shown greater volatility [4] - The ChiNext Index has dropped over 4% [5] - Hong Kong stocks have also shown volatility, with technology stocks down 3% [6][7] Global Market Dynamics - The Nasdaq opened up 2% but closed down 2%, with intraday adjustments of 4-5% [10][11] - The Nasdaq had reached overvalued levels recently, marking the first instance of overvaluation this year, followed by an 8% correction [12][13] - Global market fluctuations have been influenced by the volatility in US stocks, with South Korean stocks down over 3% and Japanese stocks down over 2% [14][15] - A-shares have shown relatively smaller fluctuations compared to global markets [16] Asset Class Performance - Recently, both gold and bonds have also seen declines, with gold down 7.5% from its recent peak [17][18] - The recent downturn in the stock market has not led to a typical safe-haven performance from bonds or gold, indicating a simultaneous decline across asset classes, a rare occurrence [20][21] - This situation is often associated with liquidity crises, similar to events in 2013 and early 2020 [22][23] Federal Reserve Outlook - The company anticipates further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, as the current dollar interest rates remain high [25] - The total scale of US national debt has reached $38 trillion, with annual interest expenses exceeding $1 trillion [26] - The pressure from interest payments necessitates a reduction in rates and refinancing [27] - There may be several months to half a year between rate cuts [29] - If the Fed does not cut rates in December, there may be concerns about liquidity in the following months [32][34] Market Liquidity and Volatility - The current liquidity tightness is unusual, as typically one asset class would rise while others fall [35] - In times of liquidity crises, investors tend to sell long-term risk assets for short-term liquidity, increasing correlations among asset classes [39][40] - Small-cap stocks, growth stocks, and cryptocurrencies are particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions [41] - The ChiNext Index saw a significant rise of over 50% in Q3, followed by a correction of over 15% in Q4 [43][44] - The company has adjusted its portfolio to reduce volatility by taking profits from overvalued growth stocks [45] Future Market Expectations - Investors should not be overly concerned about the current liquidity tightness, as it typically lasts a few weeks to a couple of months [47] - As liquidity conditions improve, different asset classes are expected to rise again [48] - The ongoing rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve suggests potential buying opportunities during market dips [49]

Core Insights - The company relies heavily on a single product for its revenue, with over 90% of its income coming from the Mandi® series, which poses significant dependency risks [1][11] - The online sales channel has grown significantly, accounting for 74% of revenue in the first half of 2025, up from 55.2% in 2022 [2] - Financial performance shows a slowdown in revenue growth, with a net profit margin declining for three consecutive years, indicating increasing pressure on profitability [3][4] Business Overview - The core business focuses on hair loss treatment, with the Mandi® series of minoxidil products holding a 57% market share in China [1] - The primary revenue source is the minoxidil solution, generating 9.91 billion yuan in 2024, which constitutes 68.1% of total revenue [2] - The second-generation minoxidil foam launched in 2024 has seen a sales surge of 338% in the first half of 2025, contributing 38.7% to revenue [2] Financial Performance - Total revenue increased from 982 million yuan in 2022 to 1.455 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.7% [3] - The net profit margin has decreased from 27.8% in 2023 to 23.4% in the first half of 2025, driven by high sales expenses and rising promotional costs [3] - Liquidity ratios have deteriorated significantly, with the current ratio dropping 76.7% to 1.0 in the first half of 2025 [4] Customer and Supplier Concentration - The top five customers account for 62.6% of revenue, with the largest customer contributing 28% [4] - Supplier concentration has increased, with the top five suppliers making up 75.6% of purchases, raising concerns about supply chain stability [6] Research and Development - R&D expenditures have fluctuated dramatically, with a 105% increase in 2024 followed by a 67% decrease in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about the pipeline's progress [7] - The company faces intense competition in its core therapeutic areas, which may hinder its ability to maintain high margins [8] Risk Factors - The company is exposed to significant risks from policy changes, competition, and liquidity issues, particularly with a 52% price drop in a recent procurement [9][10] - The entry of major competitors like Johnson & Johnson in 2026 could further pressure market share and growth potential [10] - The reliance on a single product and high customer concentration could lead to severe revenue impacts if key clients are lost [11]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is currently in a bubble, exacerbated by extreme wealth concentration, which increases the risk of liquidity crises leading to forced asset sales [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bubble will not burst solely due to high valuations; historical crashes are typically triggered by liquidity crises when investors need cash for debt repayment or taxes [4][5]. - The wealthiest 10% of Americans hold nearly 90% of stocks, contributing to a fragile market structure [3][5]. - Current margin debt has reached a record $1.2 trillion, indicating heightened market vulnerability [5]. Group 2: Economic Inequality - The concentration of wealth amplifies market fragility, with high-income households driving nearly all consumer spending while lower-income groups face financial pressures [5][6]. - The K-shaped economic recovery highlights the disparity, where affluent families thrive while others fall behind [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Despite warnings, investors are advised not to abandon the current market rally, as bubbles can persist longer than expected and yield significant returns before bursting [7][8]. - Investors should understand risks, diversify their portfolios, and consider hedging strategies, such as investing in gold, which has reached historical highs [7][8]. Group 4: Policy Implications - Proposed wealth taxes could trigger forced asset sales, further destabilizing the market and potentially leading to a bubble burst [5][39]. - The dynamics of wealth concentration and potential wealth taxes could lead to significant political and social upheaval, as seen in historical contexts [20][43].

（原标题：黄金、比特币大震荡：传统投资逻辑不灵了？｜财经早察） 11月19日黄金和比特币价格在经历暴跌后有所回调，但想必前些天的震荡行情一定让不少人心惊肉跳。 今天咱们来复盘一下最近比特币和黄金的刺激行情，风险资产和避险资产一起下跌，如此"反常"现象， 到底什么原因？ 我们先看比特币。11月18日，比特币一度跌破9万美元，这可是最近7个月内头一回啊！相信大家还有印 象，10月6日，比特币还曾经飙升到12.6万美元之上，刷新历史最高纪录，但仅仅几天之后，美国总统 特朗普出人意料的关税言论，导致全球市场震荡，比特币也开始坐上了过山车。短短一个多月，直接把 今年的涨幅全跌没了。 为什么呢？这是宏观预期、政策效应和市场情绪等因素叠加影响的结果。 第一，美国市场宏观预期变了。这是最关键的原因。最近啊，美联储内部在关于12月要不要降息的问题 上分歧更大了，有官员认为美国通胀还没达到理想水平呢，不能降；还有一派就说了，现在劳动力市场 不行啊，得赶紧继续降息、保持宽松来挽救就业和居民消费呀。市场一看，好家伙，你们美联储内部要 达成共识，短时间内看来是没戏了，那12月的降息也有可能会泡汤。美国金融市场就像一个游泳池，美 元就是 ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below $90,000 for the first time in seven months after reaching a record high of over $126,000 on October 6 [1][2] - The decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to changing macroeconomic expectations, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which have led to increased market uncertainty [2][3] - Institutional investors are reducing leverage and selling off high-risk assets like Bitcoin in response to rising funding costs, creating initial selling pressure [2][3] Group 2 - The anticipated favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies has not materialized, leading to a loss of bullish sentiment in the market [3] - The simultaneous decline of gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, is unusual and indicates a broader liquidity crisis in the market [4] - The strengthening of the US dollar and systemic tightening of liquidity have forced investors to liquidate various assets, including gold, to secure cash [4]

Market Overview - The global market is experiencing a significant downturn, with major asset classes, including stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold, facing substantial declines [4][5][10]. - The U.S. stock market has seen a notable drop, with the Dow Jones down 1.18%, Nasdaq down 0.84%, and S&P 500 down 0.92% on a recent "Black Monday" [5]. U.S. Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's recent shift towards a more hawkish stance has been identified as a primary driver of the market turmoil, with a decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts [11][13]. - The market's expectations for a rate cut in December have significantly reversed, impacting global liquidity and asset prices [11][13]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has seen a drastic decline from $126,000 in October to below $90,000, erasing all gains for 2025 and contributing to a growing sense of panic in the market [5][10]. Asian Markets - The Asia-Pacific stock markets have also suffered, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropping 3.22%, marking its largest single-day decline since April [8][10]. - The Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index have also experienced consecutive declines [8]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold, typically viewed as a safe-haven asset, has not performed as expected during this downturn, with prices falling below $4,000 per ounce [10][29]. - The tightening liquidity in the market has led investors to sell gold to raise cash, causing it to move in tandem with riskier assets [29][31]. Nvidia's Earnings Report - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to be a significant market event, as it represents a key indicator for the AI sector and broader market sentiment [15][20]. - Concerns about Nvidia's ability to meet market expectations have led to increased short-selling activity among major investors [17][18]. Japan's Economic Concerns - Japan's recent political statements regarding Taiwan have raised geopolitical tensions, negatively impacting its stock market and tourism sector [18][19]. - The Japanese government is considering a large-scale stimulus plan, but concerns about national debt and economic stability persist [18][19]. A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is under pressure due to external factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies and the performance of global markets [26][28]. - Analysts suggest that while the A-share market is currently weak, there may be opportunities for recovery as year-end strategies come into play [28]. Conclusion - The current market environment is characterized by volatility driven by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical tensions, and corporate earnings expectations [33]. - Long-term investment strategies should focus on identifying quality assets that can withstand short-term fluctuations [33].