岁末年初，政策窗口期至关重要。 中央经济工作会议部署落定，国家发展改革委已率先行动，抢抓时间窗口，主动靠前发力。 消费、投资、产业、民生等领域政策密集落地，一套稳增长、促发展的政策组合拳，已全面打出。 其中，三大核心抓手，直接瞄准经济增长关键引擎。 "两新"政策，迎来优化。 扩内需是2026年经济排在首位的重点任务，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新("两新"政策)则是撬动内 需的关键一招。 2025年12月10日，上海，市民体验"以旧换新"手机。 其中，"两重"建设方面共安排约2200亿元，支持城市地下管网、高标准农田、三北工程、有效降低全社 会物流成本等领域的281个项目。 国家发展改革委近日牵头印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》。2026 年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划已提前下达。 自2024年启动起来，"两新"政策红包连续三年送达。新的一年，消费者买车、买手机、买家电可继续享 受"国补"，不过，政策有新变化。 比如，智能眼镜首次纳入"国补"，汽车以旧换新补贴改为与车价挂钩，家电以旧换新只补贴1级能效或 水效标准产品，大规模设备更新将新增老旧小区加 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with traditional materials weakening while high-demand electronic yarns support the resilience of fiberglass [1][3] - The industry is expected to see a recovery in 2025, driven by urban renewal strategies and a shift towards high-quality green materials [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The building materials sector is crucial for infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, with China leading in the production of various materials [6][7] - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-end, green, and digital solutions, supported by government initiatives [6][8] 2. Traditional Materials and Electronic Yarn - Cement demand remains weak, with high kiln shutdown rates and stable prices in December; a rebound is expected post-Spring Festival [10][14] - Fiberglass shows a mixed demand; traditional yarns face price stabilization while high-end electronic yarns continue to see price increases due to supply constraints [40][42] - Consumer building materials show slight improvement in retail sales, driven by year-end demand, but overall demand remains below previous years [38] 3. Market Dynamics - The building materials industry maintained a stable operation in December, with a business climate index of 102.9, indicating steady demand and production [9] - The industry is witnessing a gradual recovery in confidence, with a 3.66% increase in December, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [48][49] 4. Investment Recommendations - Cement companies like Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement are recommended due to expected improvements in supply-demand dynamics and profitability [4] - For fiberglass, companies like China Jushi and China National Materials are highlighted for their strong positioning in high-demand segments [4] - Consumer building materials firms such as Oriental Yuhong and Beixin Building Materials are expected to benefit from urban renewal and quality upgrades [4]

Group 1: PMI Performance - December manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, marking an 8-month high and exceeding Bloomberg and Reuters' consensus estimate of 49.2%[2] - The PMI increase is characterized by strong structural certainty, although total economic uncertainty remains[2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI surged by 2.4 percentage points to 52.5%, indicating positive growth trends in the sector[7] Group 2: Demand and Production - New orders contributed 53% to the PMI increase, while production contributed 47%[7] - New orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%, and new export orders increased by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, reaching a new high since April[7] - Production index significantly improved by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, indicating strong expansion momentum[7] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - Main raw material purchase price index slightly decreased to 53.1%, while the factory price index rose to 48.9%[7] - Raw material inventory index increased to 47.8%, and finished goods inventory index rose to 48.2%, reflecting synchronized supply and demand improvements[7] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - Non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2%, returning to expansion territory, primarily driven by a 3.2 percentage point rise in construction PMI to 52.8%[7] - The construction sector's improvement is attributed to favorable weather conditions and accelerated project progress, although funding and project availability remain concerns[7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the manufacturing PMI increase is uncertain, with potential risks in demand and external economic conditions[6] - The need for stable growth remains significant as 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," indicating potential policy support to stabilize the economy[2]

Core Viewpoint - As of December 30, 21 regions have disclosed their local bond issuance plans for January 2026, totaling 771.2 billion yuan, compared to 284.6 billion yuan planned for January 2025 [1] Group 1: Local Bond Issuance - The current fiscal revenue and expenditure face certain pressures, making growth stabilization urgent [1] - The project timelines are gradually extending, indicating that local governments are unlikely to delay bond issuance or shorten issuance periods due to fluctuations in secondary market interest rates [1] - A rough comparison shows that the issuance period for local bonds in the first quarter of 2026 has decreased, but due to limited samples and the typical discrepancies between planned and actual issuance, it cannot be simply concluded that the issuance period will significantly shorten [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The central bank's interest rate stance is focused on stability, and past experiences indicate that phases of market concern over supply are often good opportunities for left-side trading [1]

央视网消息：近日，国家发展改革委、财政部联合印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，对2026年"两新"工作作出系 统部署。与2025年相比，优化方案呈现出"精准发力，提质增效"的特征。 2026版"两新"优化方案出台 消费品以旧换新"得补率"将更高 2026版"两新"优化方案出台 设备更新领域支持范畴更广 在设备更新领域，《通知》在保持总体延续的基础上，进一步将民生关切、公共安全及线下消费领域关键设备纳入支持范畴。包括老旧小区加装电梯， 养老机构设备更新；消防救援设施、检验检测设备更新，支持商业综合体、购物中心、大型超市等线下消费商业设施设备更新。《通知》加大对中小企业设 备更新的支持力度，大幅降低申报相关领域设备更新项目的投资额门槛，实现政策红利"应享尽享"。 2026年，优化后的"两新"政策将更加注重提质增效， 扩内需，稳增长，促转型，惠民生。 在消费品以旧换新领域，《通知》明确，2026年汽车以旧换新将此前定额补贴优化调整为按车价比例补贴，报废更新补贴最高2万元，置换更新补贴最 高1.5万元。2026年家电以旧换新支持冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等六大类产品，通过 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-12-31 债市超跌修复，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号; 10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题; 二是美方 将暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规 则一年; 三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布 在一年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率; 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加 积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀：11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压 力不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上 更加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖 ...

龚正指出，要坚决守牢城市安全底线，切实绷紧安全这根弦，以"时时放心不下"的责任感，深入开 展安全隐患排查整治，强化节日期间应急值守和应急准备，确保不发生重特大安全事故，保障城市安全 有序运行。要确保市场供应平稳有序，主副食品供应充足、价格稳定，水电气等正常供应、服务便捷。 要扩大优质商品和服务供给，结合节日消费特点和群众需求，创新多元消费场景，营造浓厚节日氛围， 激发假期消费潜力。 龚正指出，要有效保障困难群众基本生活，做好帮困送温暖，确保广覆盖、不遗漏。特别是要聚焦 困难老人、困难残疾人、因病致贫家庭等特殊群体，多做雪中送炭的事。要做好重点行业企业工资支付 情况督促检查，着力化解矛盾纠纷。同时，各委办局要主动服务和参加好市"两会"。龚正强调，越是年 节期间，越是不能放松纪律这根弦。要巩固深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育成果，严守财经纪律， 坚决落实党政机关过紧日子的要求，切实做到厉行节约、勤俭办事。 市领导吴伟、陈杰、张小宏、解冬、陈宇剑、舒庆、彭沉雷出席。市政府秘书长马春雷作《政府工 作报告》起草情况说明，市发展改革委汇报"十五五"规划《纲要（草案）》编制情况，与会相关部门作 交流发言。 记者 孟群舒 上 ...

Economic Outlook - The actual GDP growth rate for China in 2026 is projected to be around 4.8%, maintaining a medium-high growth level[2] - Global GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025[4] - China's fixed asset investment growth is forecasted to turn positive at 2.5% in 2026, recovering from a negative growth of -3.0% in 2025[4] Trade and Export Impact - China's export growth is anticipated to decline significantly from approximately 5.0% in 2025 to around 1.0% in 2026 due to increased U.S. tariffs[15] - The average U.S. import tariff rate is projected to rise to 19.5% in 2026, impacting global trade dynamics[8] Policy Measures - The target fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is set to remain at 4.0%, with an increase in new special bond issuance expected to reach 5.0 trillion yuan[41] - A reduction in interest rates by 0.3 percentage points is anticipated in 2026, with a focus on maintaining liquidity in the market[52] Consumer and Investment Trends - Consumer retail sales growth is expected to accelerate to 5.0%-6.0% in 2026, up from 3.9% in 2025, driven by enhanced consumption policies[65] - Infrastructure investment growth is projected to increase to 5.0% in 2026, significantly higher than the previous year's performance[71] Inflation and Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise to 0.4% in 2026, indicating a slight improvement in the low inflation environment[76] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is forecasted to decline by -1.8% in 2026, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the economy[76]

12月26日，由广东省商务厅、阳江市人民政府联合主办的2025广东冬季促消费暨年货节活动在阳江市启 动。 启动仪式上，省商务厅发布了广东优品购促消费活动。据介绍，2026年1月1日，"广东优品购"活动第二 阶段将启动，包括汽车购新消费券、家电产品购新消费券、电子产品购新消费券、地市特色优品消费券 等四大品类，通过真金白银的补贴，助力消费者轻松开启升级之旅。活动持续至2026年2月28日，横跨 元旦、春节两大消费旺季。 省商务厅启动本次年货节活动，是落实全省消费季活动安排、抓好2026年元旦、春节消费攻坚战的重要 环节，不仅是为了让利百姓、惠及民生，更是为了向全社会释放广东提振消费、稳增长的强烈信号，力 争为新一年的经济发展赢得"开门红"。本次活动将聚焦"年货主题""惠民利企""业态融合"方面，推出各 类广东特色优品，让消费者一站式购齐年货，感受地道的广东年文化。 当天，阳江市启动了"漠阳品 幸福购""粤享暖冬 阳货购潮"系列活动。现场发布了阳江购物地图、阳江 美食地图、阳江旅游地图，三张地图精准覆盖核心体验，分别囊括阳江62个特色消费场景、15味地道特 色美食，以及7条串联山海风光、历史文化、康养研学的精品旅 ...

2025广东冬季促消费暨年货节活动以"粤味年货乐购岭南"为主题，推出"惠享粤购""匠心粤品""飘香粤 味""精彩粤享""品质粤游"五大主题促消费活动，全省各市将发挥优势特色，深入推动商旅文体健资源 联动、业态融合，因地制宜举办系列特色促消费活动，如深圳跨年消费季暨深圳暖冬消费季、珠海"过 新年，买点好的"主题年货节、汕头家居博览会、江门咖啡文化周、中山暖冬美食文化嘉年华等，营造 热烈的消费市场氛围，进一步激发全省消费热情。 广东省商务厅党组成员、副厅长何军表示，省商务厅启动"年货节"活动，是落实全省消费季活动安排、 抓好2026年元旦春节消费攻坚战的重要环节，不仅是为了让利百姓、惠及民生，更是为了向全社会释放 广东提振消费、稳增长的强烈信号，力争为新一年的经济发展赢得"开门红"。本次活动将聚焦"年货主 题""惠民利企""业态融合"方面，推出各类广东特色优品，让消费者一站式购齐年货，感受地道的广东 年文化。 启动仪式上，广东省商务厅发布广东优品购促消费活动。2026年1月1日，"广东优品购"活动第二阶段即 将启动，包括汽车购新消费券、家电产品购新消费券、电子产品购新消费券、地市特色优品消费券等四 大品类，通过真 ...