2026年是"十五五"开局之年，不仅事关当下，更牵动未来五年发展走向。中国经济如何在新起点上落子 布局?全国两会即将召开，外界期待从中获取更多答案。 唱好"稳增长"重头戏 开局关乎全局，起步决定后势。回望"十四五"，中国经济巨轮在风高浪急中稳住航向，一个重要原因在 于始终保持政策定力。以"稳中求进"主基调为锚点，因应形势展开的宏观调控，护航中国经济总量五 年"四连跳"，2025年突破140万亿元人民币大关。 "十五五"时期外部环境更趋复杂，中国经济既要解决老问题，也要应对新挑战。主要国际机构普遍认 为，贸易紧张、地缘政治冲突加剧等因素或对全球经济活动形成更大掣肘。 在此背景下，官方如何设定今年GDP(国内生产总值)增速等发展预期目标、打出有力的政策"组合拳"， 人们期望从全国两会上捕捉更清晰信号。 "解锁"内需巨大潜力 如果说"稳增长"是中国宏观政策的主线，那么"解锁"超大国内市场蕴含的潜力，无疑是政策发力重心。 从稳住140万亿大盘，到挖出14亿人的消费潜力，再到抢先布局未来产业——"十五五"开局，每一步都 是"落子"，每一子都关乎全局。 今年开年以来，包括新一轮"国补"在内，一系列"真金白银"的促消费措施 ...

2026年是"十五五"开局之年，不仅事关当下，更牵动未来五年发展走向。中国经济如何在新起点上落子 布局？全国两会即将召开，外界期待从中获取更多答案。 唱好"稳增长"重头戏 开局关乎全局，起步决定后势。回望"十四五"，中国经济巨轮在风高浪急中稳住航向，一个重要原因在 于始终保持政策定力。以"稳中求进"主基调为锚点，因应形势展开的宏观调控，护航中国经济总量五 年"四连跳"，2025年突破140万亿元人民币大关。 "十五五"时期外部环境更趋复杂，中国经济既要解决老问题，也要应对新挑战。主要国际机构普遍认 为，贸易紧张、地缘政治冲突加剧等因素或对全球经济活动形成更大掣肘。 在此背景下，官方如何设定今年GDP（国内生产总值）增速等发展预期目标、打出有力的政策"组合 拳"，人们期望从全国两会上捕捉更清晰信号。 "解锁"内需巨大潜力 如果说"稳增长"是中国宏观政策的主线，那么"解锁"超大国内市场蕴含的潜力，无疑是政策发力重心。 2021年至2024年，内需对中国经济增长平均贡献率达86.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率接近60%。去年 底召开的中央经济工作会议提出"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，继续将扩内需列入年度重点任 ...

Group 1 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is crucial for both current and future economic development in China [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" saw China maintain economic stability through consistent policy direction, achieving a GDP growth of over 140 trillion RMB by 2025 [2] - The external environment is becoming increasingly complex, with trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts posing challenges to global economic activities [2] Group 2 - Domestic demand is identified as a key focus for policy efforts, with an average contribution rate of 86.8% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024, and nearly 60% from final consumption expenditure [3] - The government is implementing various measures to stimulate consumption, including a new round of subsidies and initiatives to enhance service consumption and diversify consumption scenarios [3] - A strategic plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 is being developed to address structural imbalances in supply and demand [3] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau's focus on future industries highlights the importance of strategic planning in the face of global technological and industrial changes [4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote emerging sectors such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communication as new economic growth points [4] - The role of private enterprises is emphasized, with increased policy support to stimulate innovation and development in future industries [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market started the year well with futures contracts rising. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, and increased global trade uncertainty added to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose policy expectations, and short - term focus should be on end - of - month policy signals [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) rose 0.40% month - on - month and fell 1.40% year - on - year [9] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale reached 449.11 trillion yuan, with a 6.99 - trillion - yuan increase and a 1.58% growth rate; M2 year - on - year was 9.00%, up 0.50% and 5.88% respectively; Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, down 0.80% and 1.60% respectively [10] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.89, up 0.15 and 0.15%; The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.8782, down 0.014 and 0.20%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.55, up 0.23 and 17.36%; DR007 was 1.55, up 0.23 and 17.67%; R007 was 1.56, down 0.12 and 6.95%; The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.56, with no change in value and a 0.15% decrease; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with no change in value and a 0.15% decrease [11] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report includes figures on the closing price trends of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price changes of various treasury bond futures varieties, the precipitation of funds in various treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of positions in various treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of net positions (top 20) in various treasury bond futures varieties, and the long - short position ratio (top 20) in various treasury bond futures varieties, but specific data is not detailed here, only the sources are mentioned as Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [13][14][20] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - The report includes figures on the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [27][28][25] IV. Spread Overview - The report includes figures on the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [31][33][37] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [40][42] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [44][54] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [51][53] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [57][60] Strategies - Unilateral: Repurchase rates have declined, and treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline in the basis of the 2603 contract [4] - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Market Overview - The first trading day of the Year of the Horse (February 24) saw A-shares open positively, with the ChiNext index rising by up to 2% and the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.87% [1][14] - Over 4,000 stocks in the market rose, with more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit [1][14] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][14] Sector Performance - The chemical sector continued to rise, with active performances in phosphate chemicals and fertilizers, leading to several stocks, including Hebang Biotechnology, hitting the daily limit [1][14] - The Chemical ETF (516020) surged by 3.42%, attracting 222 million yuan in the previous five trading days [1][14] Precious Metals and Commodities - Following the Spring Festival, the domestic market entered a peak working season, with the "golden March and silver April" period expected to see increased industrial production and infrastructure projects [3][16] - Precious metals prices surged due to rising risk aversion stemming from U.S. tariff policy disputes and geopolitical tensions, with the Precious Metals ETF (159876) rising by 3.18% and attracting a net subscription of 6 million units [3][16] - The outlook for gold demand is optimistic, with expectations of surpassing 5,000 tons globally by 2025, driven by strong investment flows and central bank purchases [7][19] Military and Aerospace Sector - The military sector showed strong performance, with the Military ETF (512810) rising by 1.16% and experiencing a premium at closing [9][21] - The domestic aviation sector is expected to accelerate, with the C919 aircraft averaging nearly 50 flights per day during the Spring Festival, a 52.6% increase year-on-year [11][24] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, are expected to heighten the urgency of national defense construction in China [11][24] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest maintaining a focus on cyclical price increases and the expansion of AI trends as the main market themes [4][17] - The investment strategy emphasizes a dual focus on technology and resource products, with technology centered on AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while resource products focus on precious metals and basic chemicals [4][17]

Group 1 - The chemical industry is entering a phase of new capacity release, with a supply-demand reversal expected by 2026 [1] - The emphasis on "anti-involution" is anticipated to improve industry profitability and promote healthier long-term development [1] - Short-term adjustments in operating methods can help balance supply and demand, leading to price recovery and profit restoration [1] Group 2 - The focus on shutting down inefficient capacity and promoting technological upgrades is crucial for escaping homogeneous competition in the medium to long term [1] - Policies such as "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" are expected to help the economy recover from its low point, increasing the likelihood of confirming the bottom of corporate profits [1] - The restructuring of supply-demand patterns and the upgrading of industrial attributes will jointly drive the revaluation of traditional chemical enterprises [1] Group 3 - The Guotai Chemical ETF (516220) tracks a sub-index of the chemical industry (000813), which selects listed companies involved in chemical raw materials and products to reflect the development status of the Chinese chemical sector [1] - The index includes companies from various sub-industries such as pesticides, fertilizers, and coatings, aiming to capture the performance of growth-oriented and competitive enterprises [1]

Market Dynamics - During the Spring Festival, domestic focus is on stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, while overseas attention is on U.S. tariff changes and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[2] - Silicon iron futures contract 2605 closed at 5492, down 0.90%, with a net capital inflow of 276 million yuan and an increase in positions by 12,966 contracts[2] - The average daily production of silicon iron decreased by 1.20% to 14,005 tons, with a weekly supply of 98,000 tons, down 1.21%[2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Weekly supply-demand mismatch for silicon iron is expanding, with a monthly supply surplus rate expected to decrease[2] - The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 28.35%, a decrease of 0.96% week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction[2] - Steel mill silicon iron inventory increased to 17.52 days, up 13.69% from the previous month, indicating a rise in inventory levels[2] Core Logic - The expectation of lower prices for raw materials like anthracite is weakening, with industry losses ranging from 100 to 600 yuan per ton[4] - The demand reduction is expected to have diminishing negative impacts, suggesting a potential for valuation recovery[4] - Policy support is anticipated to stabilize the market, with a focus on post-holiday inventory adjustments[4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the A-share market is entering a new phase in the Year of the Horse, focusing on stability and risk prevention as key priorities for over 200 million investors [1][2] - The A-share market has evolved through three previous Horse years, reflecting its growth from chaotic beginnings to a more mature and regulated environment, with significant milestones in 1990, 2002, and 2014 [1] - As of 2026, the A-share market has expanded to nearly 5,500 listed companies, with a total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan, highlighting its role as a core vehicle for serving the real economy and managing household wealth [1] Group 2 - The 2026 economic work plan emphasizes maintaining stability while seeking progress, with macroeconomic policies set to support the A-share market's stability [2] - Current positive trends in the Chinese economy provide a solid foundation for the A-share market, with foreign investment enhancing market stability amid favorable external conditions [2] - Regulatory reforms and enhanced market supervision are crucial for ensuring stability, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission focusing on maintaining a positive market momentum and preventing excessive volatility [2] Group 3 - The A-share market is undergoing a fundamental shift towards value investing and long-term holding, moving away from speculative trading behaviors [3] - Improvements in regulatory frameworks, trading rules, and investor protection mechanisms are contributing to a more stable investment environment [3] - For over 200 million investors, stability is the primary expectation, as they seek a reliable platform for wealth preservation and growth [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Factors influencing the market include the stock market rally, the broad - money signal released by the Political Bureau meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts, and increased uncertainty in global trade which adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, while China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.40% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a rate of 0.47%. M2 year - on - year is 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a rate of 6.25%. Manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a rate of - 1.60% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.91, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.01%. The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.8968, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.003 and a rate of - 0.05%. SHIBOR 7 days is 1.52, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.33%. DR007 is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.85%. R007 is 1.56, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.12 and a rate of - 6.95%. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a rate of 0.00%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a rate of 0.00% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the treasury bond issuance [14][17][21][24]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance [28][31]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [30][36][38]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [40][42][47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [48][50][51]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [52][53][54]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [58][61][64]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase interest rate declines, the price of treasury bond futures oscillates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Group 1 - In 2025, Xi'an's total import and export value reached 498.79 billion yuan, a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% [1][3] - Exports amounted to 349.26 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 25.8%, ranking first among sub-provincial cities [1][3] - The city's retail sales of consumer goods reached 572.12 billion yuan, growing by 5.3%, surpassing the national average by 1.6 percentage points [3] Group 2 - The import and export of new business formats like cross-border e-commerce grew by 75.1%, with trade partners increasing to 217 [3] - By the end of 2025, the total assets of state-owned enterprises in Xi'an reached 3,834.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [4] - The total equity of state-owned enterprises was 969.24 billion yuan, up by 5.7%, marking a historical high [4] Group 3 - In 2026, Xi'an's investment cooperation system aims to attract over 110 industrial chain projects, focusing on project implementation and output [6] - The city plans to revitalize idle assets in state-owned industrial parks through tailored strategies [6] - The goal for the first quarter includes achieving actual foreign investment of 160 million USD and signing 100 projects worth over 10 million yuan [6]