Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Report author: Mao Lei [8] - Report institution: Guotai Junan Futures [9] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Market performance last week: The overall market declined, reaching a phased high during the week and then oscillating downward. The top three sectors in terms of gains were medicine and biology, communication, and media, while the bottom three were coal, non - ferrous metals, and real estate [3] - Policy impact: The Politburo meeting announced the main economic work direction for the second half of the year. The policy on stabilizing growth weakened marginally due to the improved external environment and good economic data in the first half. In the anti - involution area, the policy on prices was diluted, causing a significant decline in related commodity futures prices and dragging down relevant stock market sectors [3] - Overseas factors: Tariff fluctuations increased. The deadline for the equal - tariff negotiation for non - Chinese countries was approaching on August 1st, and the market's interpretation of the China - related trade negotiation in Sweden was not optimistic, suppressing investors' risk appetite [3] - Market turning points: In a bull market driven by risk preference, market turning points are mainly driven by policy shifts and the fermentation of external risks. Last week's market performance basically conformed to this adjustment logic [4] - Future market outlook: After the policy meeting, the actual future direction is uncertain. There is also uncertainty regarding the Sino - US equal - tariff deadline in the middle of this month. The upward market space may be limited, and the downward space is also restricted as market sentiment remains positive [4] - Factors to watch: The release of China's economic data in July, the Fed's policy direction, and the progress of tariff negotiations [5] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Short - term strategy - Intraday trading frequency can refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [6] Trend strategy - Adopt a long - after - correction approach. The core operating ranges for the IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 contracts are 3909 - 4110 points, 2727 - 2853 points, 6030 - 6434 points, and 6375 - 6804 points respectively [6] Cross - variety strategy - Cautiously participate in the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) [7] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot market review - Global stock indices: Most global stock indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index rose by 0.30%, while others such as the Russian RTS, NASDAQ, and Brazil BOVESPA Index fell [11] - Major domestic indices: All major domestic indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index was an exception with a 0.30% increase. Since 2025, major domestic indices have shown varying degrees of increase [11][12][13] - Industry performance: In the CSI 300 index, the medicine sector rose by 2.17%, while sectors such as industry, materials, and optional consumption declined. In the CSI 500 index, the medicine and telecommunications sectors rose, while others such as finance and real estate declined [15] Futures market review - Futures contract performance: The IF futures contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude last week. The trading volume and open interest of股指期货 declined [15] Index valuation - PE ratios: The PE (TTM) ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 15.57 times, 13.5 times, 11.39 times, 30.79 times, and 41.44 times respectively [18][19] Market funds - Newly - established funds and investors: The data on newly - established equity - biased fund shares and the number of new investors in the two markets are presented [22] - Fund rates and central bank operations: The fund rate declined last week, and the central bank's net investment situation is shown [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Both stock index and treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillating" [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is rated as "Temporarily on the sidelines", iron ore as "Oscillating", and coking coal and coke as "Oscillating" [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is rated as "Range trading or on the sidelines", aluminum as "Buy on dips after a pullback", nickel as "Short on rallies or on the sidelines", tin as "Range trading", gold as "Range trading", and silver as "Range trading" [1][12][14][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are rated as "Oscillating"; polyolefin as "Wide - range oscillating"; soda ash's 09 contract as "Maintain short position" [1][23][25][28][33][34][36] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are rated as "Oscillating adjustment", apple and jujube as "Oscillating weakly" [1][38][39] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Live pigs are rated as "Short on rallies", eggs as "Short on rallies", corn as "Range oscillating", soybean meal as "Limited upside", and oils as "High - level correction risk increasing" [1][40][42][44][46][48] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trading suggestions for various futures products based on market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It also analyzes the influencing factors of each product's price movement, including macro - economic data, policy changes, and industry - specific events [1][6][8][12] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Due to weak US non - farm payroll data, internal strife within the Fed, high domestic margin trading, and the approaching mid - report disclosure period, the stock index is expected to oscillate [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: After a volatile week, the market is tired, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. After the market shock and repair caused by anti - involution expectations and Politburo Meeting uncertainties end, treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price oscillated weakly last Friday. With over - optimistic macro expectations cooling and balanced supply - demand, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8] - **Iron Ore**: In July, the iron ore market first rose and then fell. With increasing overseas supply and expected decline in iron water demand, it is expected to oscillate strongly and can be used as a long - leg configuration when shorting other black varieties [8][9] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal supply has disturbances, and demand has rigid support. Coke supply has limited increase, and demand is strong. Both are expected to oscillate, and short - term key factors need to be closely monitored [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to the Fed's stance divergence, weak US economic data, and domestic industry policies, copper supply has disturbances, but it is in the off - season, and overseas inventory may flow back. Copper is expected to oscillate weakly, with support at 77600 [12] - **Aluminum**: With rising bauxite prices in Guinea and changes in supply and demand of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback [14] - **Nickel**: In the medium - to - long term, the nickel industry has over - supply, and demand growth is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton for the main contract [19] - **Tin**: With improving tin ore supply and weak downstream demand, it is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 250,000 - 272,000 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [20] - **Gold and Silver**: After the weak US non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased. However, considering the Fed's stance and concerns about the US fiscal situation, it is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback [21][22] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high upstream production pressure, uncertain export sustainability, and insufficient fundamental support, it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on 4950 - 5150 [23][24] - **Caustic Soda**: With high supply, rigid but slow - growing demand, and the influence of macro factors, it is expected to oscillate, with the 09 contract focusing on 2500 - 2600 [25][26] - **Styrene**: With limited fundamental positives and a warming macro - environment, it is expected to oscillate, focusing on 7200 - 7500 [28][29] - **Rubber**: With high raw material costs and inventory changes, rubber is expected to oscillate, with pressure at 15000 [30][32] - **Urea**: With a slight decrease in supply, increasing demand from compound fertilizer enterprises, and stable industrial demand, it is expected to first weaken and then strengthen, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1820 - 1850 [33] - **Methanol**: With a slight increase in supply, stable demand from methanol - to - olefins, and weak traditional demand, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [34][35] - **Polyolefin**: Affected by macro factors and cost support, with weak demand in the off - season and slight inventory reduction, it is expected to correct in the short term, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35][36] - **Soda Ash**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the 09 contract is recommended to maintain a short position [36][37] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: With an increase in global cotton production and consumption in the new season, and weak downstream consumption, it is expected to oscillate and adjust [38] - **Apple**: With slow apple shipments and normal new - fruit growth, prices are under pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly [38][39] - **Jujube**: With the growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang and changes in the market supply and demand in the sales area, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the futures are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [40][42] - **Eggs**: With short - term seasonal factors and long - term supply pressure, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract and go long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts [42][44] - **Corn**: With short - term supply - demand games and long - term supply tightening, it is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread arbitrage [44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: With sufficient supply in the short term and potential supply gaps in the long term, it is recommended to be cautious about going long in the short term and go long on dips in the long term [46][47] - **Oils**: With increasing short - term correction risks and limited correction amplitudes, it is recommended to take profits on existing long positions and pay attention to the soybean - palm oil 09 spread rebound strategy [48][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market had a minor correction on August 1, 2025, with reduced trading volume. Futures prices of various commodities showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather [1][2]. - The markets of different commodities are in various situations. For example, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the demand for some commodities is affected by the season and policies. Future trends depend on factors like policy implementation, weather conditions, and market sentiment [4][6]. Summary by Commodity Stock Index Futures - On August 1, the three major A-share indexes declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3559.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.17% to 10991.32 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.24% to 2322.63 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1598.4 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 337.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 1, the coke weighted index was weakly volatile, closing at 1603.8, down 57.2. The coking coal weighted index also remained weak, closing at 1055.2 yuan, down 86.3 [2][3]. - Coke is in the fifth round of price increase with thin profits, and its daily production has slightly increased. The overall inventory continues to decline slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness is good. For coking coal, the total inventory has increased, but the production - end inventory has decreased significantly and is likely to continue to decline in the short term [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the weakening US economy and improved global supply, the US sugar price declined on August 1. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract had a slight decline at night on August 1. In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil increased by 15.07% year - on - year, reaching 3.406 million tons. India's net sugar production in 2025 - 26 is expected to increase to 30 million tons [4]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, the Shanghai rubber futures had a slight decline at night on August 1. As of August 1, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2388 tons to 208426 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4390 tons to 177630 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 2319 tons to 43849 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2318 tons to 39716 tons [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the excellent rate of US soybeans is 70%, and the growing conditions are good. If the weather continues to cooperate, the expected increase in US soybean production will impact the global soybean supply - demand pattern. Brazil's soybean production in 2025/2026 is expected to reach 182.9 million tons, an increase of 9.4 million tons year - on - year. Domestically, on August 1, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated, and the main M2509 contract closed at 3010 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [5]. Live Pigs - On August 1, the live pig futures price continued to be weak, with the main LH2509 contract closing at 14055 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The supply is stable, and the market supply is sufficient. The demand is weak due to high - temperature weather and school holidays. The cost of feed has increased, reducing the expected profit of pig farming [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper price still has a slight downward pressure. The short - term support from the "anti - involution" has weakened, and the price will fluctuate more due to major macro - events next week. After the US tariff is implemented, the non - US supply will increase significantly in the second half of the year, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate between 76,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton [7]. Cotton - On the night of August 1, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13565 yuan/ton. On August 4, the base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 400 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 133 lots compared with the previous day [7]. Iron Ore - On August 1, the main 2509 contract of iron ore closed down 0.19% at 783 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipment increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory decreased. The iron water production declined, but it remained at a relatively high level. The short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [7]. Asphalt - On August 1, the main 2509 contract of asphalt closed down 0.19% at 3658 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, and the shipment volume increased. Although the rainfall still affects the demand, there is an expectation of demand recovery. The low inventory supports the price, and the short - term price will fluctuate [8]. Logs - On August 1, the log futures market showed high - level pressure. The 2509 contract opened at 822, with a low of 813, a high of 825, and closed at 821.5, with a reduction of 2321 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the spot trading is weak [8]. Steel - After the adjustment of the Politburo meeting's statement on "anti - involution", the market's expectation of overall low - price rectification and capacity reduction has cooled. However, the "anti - involution" and "stable growth" expectations still exist, and the steel demand in the off - season is okay. The short - term steel price will follow the market sentiment and fluctuate weakly [10]. Alumina - The raw material supply of alumina may be affected by events in Guinea and the rainy season, and the price is firm. Under the policy of capacity governance, the operating capacity and production growth rate of alumina may slow down. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is stable [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is approaching the upper limit. The production growth rate may slow down, but it will still maintain a high - level operation. The demand is weak due to the off - season and high prices, and the inventory is slightly increasing [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate index decreased by 449 yuan/ton to 71025 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 650 yuan/ton. The market trading activity has improved, but the future of mines in Jiangxi is uncertain [11][12].

8月1日，省委常委会召开会议，传达学习7月30日召开的中央政治局会议精神，认真学习习近平总 书记在党外人士座谈会上的重要讲话精神和向世界青年和平大会的致信精神，听取省委十四届八次全会 筹备工作情况汇报，进一步部署野生鸟类保护和审计整改等工作。省委书记赵一德主持会议。 会议强调，要落实好党中央关于"十五五"时期经济社会发展形势的科学判断和做好经济社会发展工 作的总体要求，对标对表做好我省"十五五"规划编制工作，科学合理谋划目标指标和重点任务。要全力 以赴稳增长，加大项目储备、活动策划、政策配套力度，承接用好更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策，高质量推动"两重"建设，提质增效实施"两新"政策，持续激发有潜能的消费，扩大有效益的投 资。要加力提效增动能，依托西安区域科技创新中心、秦创原、"三项改革"等平台机制促进创新主体培 育和创新产业发展，锚定融入和服务全国统一大市场建设推进要素市场化配置、国资国企等重点改革， 持续扩大对外开放。要坚持就业优先政策导向稳就业，巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，完善公共服务体系，毫 不放松抓好防汛备汛、安全生产、迎峰度夏等工作。 会议强调，要尽职尽责加强生态环境保护，深入开展全面保护鸟类 ...

黑色产业链日报 2025/08/01 螺纹钢期货月差（01-05）季节性. source： Wind 元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 07/01 09/01 11/01 01/01 -200 0 200 400 热卷期货月差（01-05）季节性. source： Wind 元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 07/01 09/01 11/01 01/01 -100 0 100 200 300 | 螺纹、热卷现货价格.. | 螺纹、热卷基差. | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位（元/吨） | 2025-08-01 | 2025-07-31 | 单位（元/吨） | 2025-08-01 | 2025-07-31 | | 螺纹钢汇总价格：中国 | 3402 | 3407 | 01螺纹基差（上海） | 103 | 109 | . 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/06 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z000 ...

Policy Overview - The new growth stabilization plan for key industries is set to be released, focusing on structural optimization and elimination of outdated capacity[1] - The previous plan (2023-2024) successfully achieved industrial added value growth targets across most key industries, with specific targets set for various sectors[3] Industry Performance - The power equipment sector aimed for an average annual growth rate of approximately 9%, while the non-ferrous metals sector had targets of 5.5% for both 2023 and 2024[3] - The automotive industry exceeded its 2023 target of 5% growth, achieving a 13% increase, while the non-ferrous metals sector grew by 7.5% in 2023 and 8.9% in 2024[3] Growth Targets and Achievements - Seven out of ten key industries met or exceeded their industrial added value growth targets, with the light industry achieving a growth rate of 3.4%, slightly below the target of 4%[3] - The construction materials sector fell short of its targets, with a decline of 0.5% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024, against a target of 3.5% and 4% respectively[3] Future Expectations - The new growth stabilization plan is expected to be effective until 2026, likely maintaining industrial added value targets similar to the previous plan[4] - The upcoming policies may emphasize supply-side governance, balancing production efficiency with capacity optimization[7] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery and uncertainties in external markets, which could impact the effectiveness of the growth stabilization policies[6] - The balance between production limits and sustainable profitability remains a critical concern, particularly in high-emission industries like steel[7]

黄莉新代表在评议中表示，今年以来，市政府深入学习贯彻习近平总书记考察上海重要讲话精神， 在市委坚强领导下，统筹抓好稳增长、促转型、惠民生、防风险各项工作，推动经济持续回升向 好、"五个中心"能级持续提升、高水平改革开放持续深化、民生福祉持续改善，实现了"时间过半、完 成任务过半"，取得成绩来之不易。当前外部环境不确定性不稳定性因素较多，要按照中央和市委部 署，聚焦"五个中心"建设重要使命，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，扎实推进稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳 预期各项工作，着力推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合、深化高水平改革开放、推进现代化人民城市建 设，不断提升人民群众的获得感、幸福感、安全感，全力实现全年经济社会发展目标任务。人大代表要 认真学习贯彻新修改的代表法，更好在本职岗位上实干笃行，在依法履职上奋勇争先，在联系服务群众 上用心用情，助力推动经济社会高质量发展，为上海加快建成具有世界影响力的社会主义现代化国际大 都市作出新的更大贡献。 抓早抓快落实惠企政策 "报告彰显求真务实的态度和锐意进取的决心。"代表们认为，在外部环境充满不确定性的情况下， 上海上半年地区生产总值能取得5.1%增速，成绩来之不易。 记者 王海 ...

Group 1: Interest Rate Bonds - During the period from July 18 to July 25, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 23,438.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 21,315.00 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2,123.00 billion yuan[2] - The overall interbank funding prices increased, with DR001 rising by 6.08 basis points to 1.5174% and DR007 increasing by 14.56 basis points to 1.6523%[2] - In the primary market, the issuance of interest rate bonds totaled 9,398.05 billion yuan, with total maturing bonds amounting to 7,306.36 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of 2,091.69 billion yuan[2] - The yields on government bonds for various maturities increased: 1-year up by 3.45 basis points to 1.3835%, 3-year up by 7.34 basis points to 1.4777%, 5-year up by 7.92 basis points to 1.6048%, 7-year up by 7.31 basis points to 1.6926%, and 10-year up by 6.72 basis points to 1.7324%[2] - The 10Y-1Y yield spread widened from 31.62 basis points to 34.89 basis points[2] Group 2: Credit Bonds - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, a total of 956 credit bonds were newly issued (including interbank certificates of deposit), with an issuance scale of 12,074.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,330.33 billion yuan compared to the previous period[3] - The total repayment of credit bonds was 14,553.08 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -2,478.24 billion yuan[3] - Among the newly issued bonds, the AAA-rated bonds accounted for 5,334.28 billion yuan, representing 77.67% of the total issuance[3] - The yields on city investment bonds increased overall, with the 3-year AA-rated bonds experiencing the largest rise of 12.27 basis points[3] - The yields on medium-term notes also increased, with the 10-year AAA-rated bonds rising by 11.99 basis points[3]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Considering the limited spot inventory, it is advisable to operate on the low side during price corrections. Pay attention to 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively; hot - rolled coil spot prices in these regions all dropped by 60 yuan/ton. Futures prices also decreased significantly, with the rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 107 yuan, 108 yuan, and 110 yuan respectively, and the hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 103 yuan, 110 yuan, and 109 yuan respectively [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 80 yuan to 3080 yuan, while the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China increased by 48 yuan, and the profit of rebar in South China increased by 38 yuan [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a rise of 1.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 867.0, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar output increased by 2.9 to 212.0, a rise of 1.4%, with converter output increasing by 5.4 to 188.0 (a 2.9% increase) and electric - furnace output decreasing by 2.5 to 23.9 (a 9.3% decrease). Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 3.6 to 317.5, a decline of 1.1% [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 1336.5, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.6 to 538.6, a decline of 0.9%, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.3 to 345.2, a rise of 0.7% [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a decline of 13.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a decline of 0.2%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.4 to 216.6, a rise of 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.6% [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - In the future, pig iron output in July will remain high, with an average expected to stay around 2.4 million tons per day. Improving steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore. Unilateral trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines increased by 4.4 to 793.4, a rise of 0.6%, while the warehouse receipt cost of PB fines decreased by 2.2 to 818.4, a decline of 0.3%. The 09 - contract basis of various iron ore varieties generally increased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 5.5 to - 43.5, a rise of 11.2%, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.5 to 23.0, a decline of 16.4% [3] - **Supply**: The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5, a decline of 5.5%. The global weekly shipping volume increased by 91.8 to 3200.9, a rise of 3.0%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, a rise of 8.0% [3] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased by 7.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a decline of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a decline of 3.9% [3] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23, a decline of 0.8%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 63.1 to 8885.2, a rise of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a rise of 5.0% [3] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Coke**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coke and short on iron ore, while avoiding exchange intervention risks. - **Coking Coal**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore, also avoiding exchange intervention risks [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1296 yuan/ton, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton. The coke 09 and 01 contracts increased by 44 yuan and 50 yuan respectively. The coking profit calculated by the Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/week [4] - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 4 yuan, and the 01 contract increased by 18 yuan. The sample coal mine profit increased by 27 yuan/week, a rise of 8.3% [4] - **Supply**: The weekly average daily output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6, a rise of 0.6%, and the weekly average daily output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 47.2, a rise of 0.1%. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased, with raw coal output decreasing by 4.3 to 862.3, a decline of 0.5%, and clean coal output decreasing by 1.5 to 441.0, a decline of 0.3% [4] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the relatively high pig iron output, and the demand for coking coal is also supported by the slightly increased coking plant operation rate [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2, a decline of 0.8%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.4 to 80.1, a decline of 8.5%, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 1.0 to 640.0, a rise of 0.2%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 25.5 to 132.6, a decline of 16.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4, a rise of 6.1% [4] - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5, a rise of 10.2% [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from June[1] - The new orders index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, indicating a return to contraction territory[2] - The production index was at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, still in the expansion zone but affected by weak demand[2] Group 2: External and Internal Demand Factors - Weak external demand was reflected in the new export orders index, which dropped by 0.6 percentage points[2] - Domestic consumption growth has slowed, influenced by the real estate market adjustments and reduced effectiveness of previous growth-stimulating policies[2] - The service sector PMI was at 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, with tourism-related sectors performing well but overall service sector affected by real estate cooling[4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The overall economic pressure is increasing, with manufacturing PMI indicating a downturn after two months of recovery[5] - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support in the second half of the year[5] - Potential policy measures may include interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending to boost domestic demand and counteract external demand slowdown[5]