大家提出，今年是"十五五"开局之年，上海正处于乘势而上、转型升级的关键期。要强化内需主导 作用，在推进"两重"建设、促进居民增收、挖掘文旅产业增长潜力等领域重点发力，增强稳增长各项政 策的主动性、协同性、实效性。要以国家重大战略为牵引，加强创新驱动，更加努力把重大战略机遇和 改革红利转化为提升"五个中心"能级的动力活力。要建强建好现代化产业体系，推动未来产业前瞻布局 和重点支柱产业提质发展，巩固经济稳中向好势头。要认真践行人民城市理念，积极适应城市发展阶段 变化，深化精细治理与精准服务，推动公共服务更普惠、更优质、更多样。 连日来，市人大常委会副主任郑钢淼、周慧琳、宗明、陈靖、张全、徐毅松分别参加了代表团审议 政府工作报告，审查"十五五"规划纲要草案、计划报告和草案、预算报告和草案。大家认为，报告总结 成绩全面客观，蓝图擘画清晰科学，是一个强信心、重实干、有温度的好报告。 大家表示，过去一年，在党中央和市委的坚强领导下，全市上下紧紧围绕深入贯彻落实习近平总书 记考察上海重要讲话精神，顶压前行、埋头苦干，经济持续回升向好，稳增长、促转型、惠民生、防风 险各项工作稳中有进，实现了"十四五"圆满收官。 记者 王闲乐 ...

（来源：东北新闻网） 2月4日，由省工业和信息化厅、中国工商银行辽宁省分行举办的重点行业稳增长实施方案专题解读会在沈阳举行。会议围绕国家出台的稳增长系列政策， 重点解读汽车、机械、电力装备、电子信息、石化化工、钢铁、轻工等行业政策。全省12家金融机构、21个新型工业化院、30个重点县区、近50户企业、 33个行业协会共300余人参加会议。 会议现场 本次会议邀请了工业和信息化部相关司局及事业单位负责同志，围绕稳增长系列政策，结合辽宁产业结构特点与现实困境，就政策内涵、落实路径、行业 预期及企业纾困等方面进行深度讲解与现场指导。同时深化政银企协同，发挥金融支撑作用，精准把握政策导向，力求为行业、企业提供金融支持。 以汽车行业为例，会议对国家稳增长工作方案中着力扩大国内消费、提升供给质量、优化发展环境、深化国际合作等举措进行深入解读，并结合我省产业 实际提出具体发展建议。与会专家认为，辽宁应统筹优化全省产能，强化整车与零部件企业协同发展，推动整车企业持续上规模、增效益；依托我省科 教、场景、产业、区位及数据资源等优势，加强低温高寒环境下的动力电池、固态电池、自动驾驶等关键技术攻关与示范应用，拓展公交、物流、扫雪等 ...

2026 年 2 月 4 日 总量研究 从地方两会看稳增长"路线图" ——2025 年中央经济工作会议精神学习第二篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 充分挖掘经济潜能，苦练内功应对挑战—— 2025 年中央经济工作会议精神学习 （2025-12-12） 积极有为，实现"十五五"良好开局—— 2025 年 12 月政治局会议精神学习（2025- 12-09） "十五五"高水平对外开放的战略升级—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告四（2025- 11-19） 理解"十五五"规划的三个定量指标—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告三（2025- 10-29） 坚持高质量发展，续写奇迹新篇章——二十 届四中全会公报精神学习暨《"十五五"规 划》系列报告二（2025-10-24） "十五五"规划的三条主线、五个猜想—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告一（2025- 09-28） 巩固经济和资本市场回稳向好势头 ...

Core Insights - The meeting held on February 3 aimed to strengthen communication between government, banks, and enterprises to ensure funding for key projects in Beijing, supporting investment and economic growth goals for the first quarter and the entire year [1][17]. Group 1: Meeting Overview - The meeting combined in-person and online participation, with approximately 240 attendees, including representatives from various financial institutions and key project units [3]. - The Beijing Development and Reform Commission presented investment strategies and financing needs, while other departments discussed policies to support high-quality development and technological independence [4]. Group 2: Financing Needs and Projects - A total of 165 key financing projects were announced, with a total investment of approximately 2,851 billion and a financing demand of about 763 billion [7]. - The projects are categorized into three types: - Industrial development projects (138 projects) with a total investment of about 1,641 billion and financing needs of approximately 573 billion - Infrastructure projects (10 projects) with a total investment of about 652 billion and financing needs of approximately 71 billion - Livelihood improvement projects (17 projects) with a total investment of about 557 billion and financing needs of approximately 120 billion [7]. Group 3: Financial Service Enhancement - Financial institutions are encouraged to align with the city's economic development priorities, focusing on expanding domestic demand, modernizing the industrial system, regional coordinated development, and improving public services [8][9][10][11][12]. - The meeting emphasized the importance of collaboration between government, banks, and enterprises to enhance service levels and support the real economy [13]. Group 4: Continuous Improvement Initiatives - The meeting outlined plans to improve financing matching services, enhance policy support, and optimize the business environment to facilitate project financing [14][16][17]. - Specific actions include rolling out project lists with financing needs, improving the effectiveness of financing matches, and reducing financing costs for small and micro enterprises [15][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the infrastructure industry chain is experiencing a significant increase in prosperity due to ongoing "stabilizing growth" policies, leading to a new round of large-scale equipment updates [1] - As of February 3, engineering machinery ETFs (516250), machinery ETFs (159886), and building materials ETFs (516750) have all seen notable gains, with increases of 6.02%, 3.76%, and 3.29% respectively, indicating a clear recovery trend [1] - Since 2026, the pace of major transportation, energy, water conservancy, and municipal engineering projects has accelerated, enhancing expectations for physical workload formation [1] Group 2 - Support policies for industrial equipment updates, renovation of old production lines, and domestic substitution of high-end equipment are continuously being implemented, creating new demand space for the machinery equipment industry [1] - The dual drive of "infrastructure investment support + manufacturing equipment upgrade and expansion" is becoming the core logic for improving expectations in the sector [1] - Research institutions believe that the engineering machinery industry is likely to experience a resonance of domestic demand recovery and renewal cycles, while the building materials sector is expected to benefit from improved demand due to the recovery of project commencement [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% (-1.60%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.61, up 0.49 (+0.50%); The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9411, down 0.011 (-0.16%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.01%); DR007 was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.40%); R007 was 1.68, up 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, unchanged (+0.00%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, unchanged (+0.00%) [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury and Treasury Futures Market The report provides multiple charts showing the trends and proportions related to the treasury futures market, including the closing prices, price changes, precipitation of funds, positions, and net positions of various treasury futures varieties [13][14][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, local government bond issuance, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, and the yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [24][27][29]. IV. Spread Overview The report shows the trends of inter - period spreads of various treasury futures varieties and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads through multiple charts [34][35][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Futures The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][45]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [47][55]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Futures The report offers charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [62][67]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate declines, the prices of treasury futures oscillate [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

截至午间收盘，中证稀土产业指数下跌3.2%，中证石化产业指数下跌5.1%。Wind数据显示，化工行业ETF易方达（516570）此前连续11个交易日获资金净 流入，合计超11亿元。 市场分析认为，石化化工行业是我国资源—制造业再通胀的核心环节，正逐步迎来产业基本面右侧起步阶段的布局窗口期。具体来看，石化化工"反内卷" "稳增长"措施趋于立体化，提升产业复苏斜率；海外需求向上伴随产能退出，出口有望从以价换量转到量价齐升，中国工业力迎来估值重塑；需求端受益于 新旧动能转换，化工新材料有望为产业需求改善注入弹性。 每日经济新闻 ...

2026年，银行经营工作怎么干？在低利率环境下，银行业如何稳增长、防风险、促转型，成为新一年经 营管理工作的核心命题。 近期，国有大行、股份行以及多家头部城商行、农商行相继召开2026年经营管理工作会议，聚焦服务实 体经济、优化业务结构、强化风险防控和推进数智化转型等重点任务，对全年经营工作"划重点"。 国有大行稳中求进服务实体是首位 从国有大行的2026年经营管理工作会议部署看，"稳中求进"仍是主基调，服务国家战略和实体经济被普 遍置于首要位置。 一方面，国有大行普遍将加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的金融支持，围绕科技创新、普惠金融 等方向持续发力，做好金融稳定的"压舱石"。相关表述中，"专注主责主业""加大重点领域融资供给"为 高频词。 工商银行表示：突出主责主业，投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，加大贷款投放、债券投资力度，做深做 精"五篇大文章"，全力服务"四稳"；加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，以及"十 五五"重大工程、重大项目；靠前服务"两重一薄"，积极惠民生促消费，助力服务业扩能提质。 农业银行2026年将加大重点领域融资供给。坚持投资于物与投资于人紧密结合，持续加大"两重""两 ...

◎记者 黄坤 2026年，银行经营工作怎么干？在低利率环境下，银行业如何稳增长、防风险、促转型，成为新一年经 营管理工作的核心命题。 近期，国有大行、股份行以及多家头部城商行、农商行相继召开2026年经营管理工作会议，聚焦服务实 体经济、优化业务结构、强化风险防控和推进数智化转型等重点任务，对全年经营工作"划重点"。 国有大行稳中求进 服务实体是首位 从国有大行的2026年经营管理工作会议部署看，"稳中求进"仍是主基调，服务国家战略和实体经济被普 遍置于首要位置。 一方面，国有大行普遍将加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的金融支持，围绕科技创新、普惠金融 等方向持续发力，做好金融稳定的"压舱石"。相关表述中，"专注主责主业""加大重点领域融资供给"为 高频词。 工商银行表示：突出主责主业，投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，加大贷款投放、债券投资力度，做深做 精"五篇大文章"，全力服务"四稳"；加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，以及"十 五五"重大工程、重大项目；靠前服务"两重一薄"，积极惠民生促消费，助力服务业扩能提质。 农业银行2026年将加大重点领域融资供给。坚持投资于物与投资于人紧密结合，持续 ...

Revenue and Income Trends - In December 2025, total public finance revenue was CNY 15,529.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 25.0%, with the decline expanding by 24.9 percentage points compared to November[4] - Tax revenue for December was CNY 11,549.0 billion, down 11.5% year-on-year, marking a negative growth shift of 14.3 percentage points[4] - Non-tax revenue fell to CNY 3,980.0 billion, a significant decline of 47.9%, with the drop widening by 37.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] Expenditure Insights - Public finance expenditure in December was CNY 38,857.0 billion, down 1.8% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.9 percentage points from November[4] - Local public finance expenditure was CNY 34,055.0 billion, decreasing by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.9 percentage points compared to November[4] - The share of expenditure on social security and employment fell to 9.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%[2] Sector-Specific Expenditure - Expenditure on health, energy conservation, and cultural tourism increased by 12.1%, 3.1%, and 5.3% year-on-year, respectively[2] - Infrastructure spending accounted for 25.0% of the public finance budget in December, an increase of 5.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued focus on "stabilizing growth"[2] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Central government fund revenue in December was CNY 1,118.0 billion, up 36.5% year-on-year, while local government fund revenue was CNY 16,312.0 billion, down 13.8%[5] - The revenue from state land use rights fell to CNY 12,399.0 billion, a decrease of 22.9% year-on-year, contributing to the decline in local government fund revenue[5] Overall Fiscal Performance - For the entire year of 2025, general public budget revenue was CNY 216,045.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%[7] - General public budget expenditure for the year was CNY 287,395.0 billion, showing a modest increase of 1.0% year-on-year[12] - The central budget expenditure for the year increased by 19.0%, indicating a significant contribution to overall fiscal performance[22]