证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 稳增长方案发布，重点关注行业供给优化 [Table_Title2] 建筑材料 [Table_Summary] ►本周受益标的：（1）工信部等 6 部门联合发布《方案》，反 内卷下水泥行业自律加速，推荐华新水泥、海螺水泥等，上峰 水泥等受益；行业"反内卷"同步推进，光伏玻璃行业底部提 价，推荐旗滨集团，福莱特、信义光能等受益；防水顺应倡议 产品提价，推荐东方雨虹、科顺股份等；（2）龙头受益消防新 国标，消防机器人商业化助新成长，推荐消防报警龙头青鸟消 防；（3）受益于特种电子布超高景气，推荐中国巨石、中材科 技、国际复材等受益。（4）推荐经营韧性超预期，个股α强的 三棵树，推荐估值低位且具备高分红的伟星新材、兔宝宝等。 ►反内卷效果显现，水泥、玻璃价格趋势好转。（1）水泥： 本周全国水泥市场价格环比大幅攀升，涨幅为 1.5%。九月 底，受降雨和台风天气影响，水泥市场需求出现阶段性减 弱，全国重点地区水泥企业平均出货率环比下降约 2pct。 （2）浮法玻璃：本周国内浮法玻璃均价 1224.74 元/ ...

Domestic Policy Focus - The industry stabilization plans for steel, construction materials, and light industry have been issued, emphasizing capacity regulation compared to previous versions [3][6][8] - The steel industry plan aims for an average annual growth of around 4% in value added, with a focus on supply-side structural adjustments and strict capacity control measures [9][10] - The construction materials plan prohibits the addition of new cement and flat glass capacity, requiring capacity replacement plans for new and renovated projects [10][11] Biopharmaceutical Sector - The National Drug Procurement Office released the national centralized drug procurement document (GY-YD2025-1), focusing on optimizing procurement rules and reducing drug costs for the public [18] - Changes in the procurement process include stricter qualification standards for bidding companies and modifications to the selection rules to respect clinical choices [18] Overseas Policy Developments - The U.S. Congress delegation visited China, with discussions focusing on Taiwan and military issues [3][6] - The U.S. and U.K. signed a significant technology cooperation agreement during President Trump's visit, addressing core issues such as the Israel-Palestine conflict and the Russia-Ukraine situation [3][6] Weekly Industry Policy Review - Key areas of focus include the rectification of internal competition, new production capabilities, infrastructure, new energy vehicles, media, and biopharmaceuticals [3][6] Other Policies - The third round of inspections by various financial regulatory bodies has been reported, indicating ongoing efforts to improve regulatory compliance and governance [3][6]

Summary of Glass Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The glass industry has been experiencing losses since the second half of 2024, with new capacity and demand from housing policies failing to balance supply and demand, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1][3] - The price of glass has remained around 2000 RMB per ton, but this has not alleviated the loss situation [1][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and other departments have implemented strict controls on new flat glass capacity, promoting capacity replacement and the elimination of outdated capacity to stabilize market expectations [1][4] Key Points Discussed - **Current Challenges**: The industry has faced significant challenges since the second half of 2024, with many companies experiencing limited profit margins. The market situation has deteriorated since the second half of 2022 due to excess capacity and the impact of housing policies [3][4] - **Policy Support**: The MIIT's guidelines include opposing internal competition, limiting production, and ensuring sales are not below cost. Specific production limits and price increases are left to companies to decide [8][12] - **Price Trends**: Factors such as a 12% increase in new construction area in August and optimized real estate policies in first-tier cities may lead to a potential increase in glass prices, although the exact extent of the increase remains to be seen [5][9] Future Outlook - Despite the industry's current low state, there are indications of potential improvement due to increased policy support and positive changes in demand. The upcoming months of September and October are seen as critical periods for observing these changes [6][7] - The MIIT's recent measures aim to stabilize the market and encourage companies to take self-rescue actions, although it does not explicitly prohibit companies from selling at a loss [8][11] Additional Insights - The MIIT's price monitoring policy aims to prevent unfair competition and price manipulation within the industry, ensuring that companies do not engage in predatory pricing or collusion [11][12] - The challenges of transitioning from petroleum coke to natural gas in production processes are significant, with cost implications making it difficult for many companies to implement these changes [15][16] - The overall sentiment is cautious optimism, with the expectation that the combination of government support and market adjustments may lead to a more favorable environment for the glass industry in the near future [6][7]

叁||多位研究者认为，新的增量政策会适时推进，其规模或与"924"政策存在差异，但针对性 会更强。 2025年9月24日，沪指收于3853.64点，4000余只个股上涨；而在2024年9月中下旬，沪指一度跌至2689 点。 一年间，沪指上涨超过1000点。 带来改变的是2024年9月24日（下称"924"）开启的一系列增量政策：降准、降息、化债以及创新型的货 币政策工具。这一系列政策指向了稳增长、促消费、推动物价恢复、稳定楼市与股市的多元目标。更重 要的是，增量政策的集中出台，改变了此前宏观政策的边际方向，也彰显出宏观经济思路的转变。 "924"成为这一改变的起点。 远东资信研究院副院长张林对经济观察报表示， "924"一揽子增量政策是一次颇为成功的宏观政策操 作，各项政策直指制约经济正向循环的核心矛盾，力图帮助各个部门修复资产负债表，减缓经济转型过 程中出现的阵痛。 2025年上半年的宏观政策进一步延续了增量政策的积极取向，赤字率调升至4%，"两新"政策持续落 地；降准和降息按节奏推进，同时设立了服务与养老再贷款等新的政策工具。 壹||一年过去，被市场称为"924"新政的宏观调控，已成为中国经济政策从"稳健 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while many global central banks are lowering interest rates, China's central bank adopts a cautious and independent approach, focusing on domestic economic conditions [1][3][13] - China's central bank emphasizes a balanced monetary policy that is not merely reactive to global trends, but rather strategically tailored to its own economic context [5][11] - The difference in monetary policy between the US and China is highlighted, with the US benefiting from high interest rates that attract global capital, while China faces challenges such as a low net interest margin for commercial banks [5][7] Group 2 - The recent depreciation of the US dollar has led to a slight appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which alleviates debt pressure for companies with dollar-denominated loans, particularly those with significant overseas operations [7][9] - However, the appreciation of the yuan poses challenges for export-oriented industries, particularly those with thin profit margins, such as textiles and toys, which may face increased order pressure [9][11] - The central bank's strategy includes targeted liquidity support for small and medium-sized enterprises and the manufacturing sector, rather than broad-based monetary easing [11][13] Group 3 - The cautious approach of China's central bank is seen as a stabilizing factor in the global market, providing a reliable anchor amid fluctuations in the US dollar and global economic uncertainties [13][15] - The central bank's strategy of "steady growth" and "risk prevention" reflects a prudent balance that strengthens the domestic economy while contributing to global market stability [13][15] - The emphasis on a gradual and precise monetary policy approach, likened to "drip irrigation" rather than "flooding," showcases the central bank's commitment to sustainable economic management [11][15]

Group 1 - The Guozheng Securities Leading Index (399437) increased by 0.91% as of September 24, 2025, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Guotai Junan Securities (600061) up 3.73% and Changjiang Securities (000783) up 2.31% [1] - Despite a decline of over 8% in the Securities ETF Leader (159993) in September, there was a net inflow of 5.67 million units by September 23, indicating continued investor interest [1] - China Galaxy Securities believes that the government's policies aimed at "stabilizing growth and the stock market" will continue to shape the sector's future, supported by a moderately loose liquidity environment and improved investor confidence [1] Group 2 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Securities Leading Index accounted for 79.16% of the index, with major players including Dongfang Caifu (300059) and CITIC Securities (600030) [2]

9月24日，A股三大指数集体低开，证券板块早盘低开。热门ETF中，券商ETF（159842）截至发稿小幅 下跌，跌幅0.17%，溢折率0.02%，盘中频现溢价交易。 成分股中，湘财股份涨超2%，国盛金控、兴业证券、国联民生、红塔证券、东兴证券等多股跟涨。 资金流向方面，Wind数据显示，截至9月23日，券商ETF（159842）已连续20个交易日获资金净流入， 累计"吸金"近25亿元。 券商ETF（159842）跟踪中证全指证券公司指数。该指数选取中证全指样本股中至多50只证券公司行业 股票组成，以反映该行业股票的整体表现。 中国银河证券认为，国家"稳增长、稳股市""提振资本市场"的政策目标仍将持续定调板块未来走向，流 动性适度宽松环境延续、资本市场环境持续优化、投资者信心重塑等多方面因素共同推动证券板块景气 度上行，中长期资金扩容预期进一步增强基本面改善预期。截至2025年9月19日，证券板块PB估值 1.42x，处于2010年以来23.90%分位，仍然具备较高安全边际，板块配置正当时。 招商证券指出，2025年上半年，资本市场景气度持续向好，股债双线复苏为券商行业带来显著利好。基 于当前市场环境和行业发展 ...

Key Points - The article discusses various economic indicators and regulatory actions impacting different industries, highlighting potential investment opportunities and market trends. Group 1: Economic Data - In August, the total electricity consumption in China reached 10,154 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [3] - For the first eight months of the year, total electricity consumption accumulated to 68,788 billion kWh, growing by 4.6% year-on-year [3] - The fixed broadband internet access user base reached 689 million by the end of August, with a net increase of 18.85 million users compared to the end of the previous year [4] - The number of users with internet access speeds of 1,000 Mbps or higher reached 233 million, representing 33.9% of total users, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous year [4] Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The State Administration for Market Regulation has urged Huo La La to comply with antitrust laws and ensure fair market competition [4] - The National Internet Information Office has taken measures against platforms like Toutiao and UC for failing to manage harmful content, including warnings and demands for corrections [5][6] - A new regulatory framework for live e-commerce is being drafted to enhance supervision and protect consumer rights [5] Group 3: Market Trends - The OECD has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [8] - Gold prices have surged, with London gold reaching over $3,790 per ounce, marking a historical high [6] - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from a new growth plan aimed at stabilizing the market, with a focus on trade-in policies and technological advancements [9]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京9月22日电（郭洲洋）黑色系商品价格2025上半年在整体供应宽松的格局中呈现下行趋 势。三季度以来，价格重心受"反内卷"政策预期支撑大幅回升，尤其是焦煤的强势对产业链上下游均形 成了提振， 但随着市场情绪的降温，黑色系又再次陷入震荡。 总的来看，需求的阶段性走弱使得焦煤价格跟随成材进行了回调，但是"反内卷"预期仍对价格底部形成 有效支撑。永安期货预计，焦煤已较难回到前期低点，向上空间主要取决于成材表现，同时也受到动力 煤的制约。 此外，铁矿石目前供需双增，基本面矛盾总体较为缓和。"考虑到钢厂盈利比例依然不错，我们预计短 期铁水难跌，对铁矿价格仍有不小支撑。"中金公司表示，预计四季度铁矿价格运行区间100-110美元／ 吨，焦煤现货价格可能维持在1200-1300元／吨以上。 黑色系有望稳中趋好 四季度重点关注需求表现 在双焦价格持续走强的压力下，下游钢厂利润受到明显压缩，原料需求逐渐走弱，在期货盘面保持强势 的同时，焦炭现货市场出现了多次的钢厂提降，压制了原料价格的上涨趋势。永安期货指出，"可以 说，钢材偏弱的现实是黑色品种在7月冲高后面临价格阻力的关键所在，其后续需求表现将决定整 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **成材**: Short - term outlook is oscillating with a slight upward bias, but the upside is limited. The trading logic is mainly based on industry fundamentals, with the price of finished steel showing signs of recovery, yet the weak downstream demand may constrain the price rebound [9]. - **煤焦**: In the short - term, there is an increase in both supply and demand. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory before the National Day holiday, which supports the confidence in price support. The futures market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **铁合金**: Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon continue to face a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with pressure on inventory. However, the short - term restocking demand before the National Day holiday may support prices. It is expected that prices will be in a weak consolidation state [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most black commodity futures and spot prices increased. For example, the futures price of coke J2601 rose from 1625.5 to 1738.5, a 6.95% increase, and the spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke increased from 1390 to 1500, a 7.91% increase [7]. 02. This Week's Black Market Forecast - **成材** - **Logic**: The blast furnace utilization rate and daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased, while the average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. The finished steel rebounded last week, but the weak downstream situation remains unchanged. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set an average annual growth target of about 4% for the steel industry in the next two years [9]. - **View**: Short - term oscillation with a slight upward bias. - **Future Focus**: Macroeconomic policies and downstream demand. - **煤焦** - **Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp last week, and the futures price of coal and coke oscillated with an upward bias. On the spot side, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly, and some coke enterprises in Inner Mongolia planned to raise prices. The environmental protection policy in Tangshan affected market sentiment, but the overall rigid demand for raw materials remained strong [10]. - **View**: Short - term supply and demand both increase, and the market will maintain a wide - range oscillation. - **Future Focus**: The resumption process of coal, coke, and steel production and changes in imported coal clearance. - **铁合金** - **Logic**: Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp. Domestically, the market has entered the traditional peak season, but demand is still weaker than expected. On the supply side, the output and operating rate of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while those of ferrosilicon remained stable. On the demand side, the weekly demand for silicon manganese and ferrosilicon of the five major steel types decreased for three consecutive weeks. On the inventory side, silicon manganese inventory increased significantly, while ferrosilicon inventory decreased. The cost of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon has certain support [11]. - **View**: Prices are expected to be in a weak consolidation state. - **Future Focus**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits, production, and domestic production restrictions. 03. Variety Data - **成材** - **螺纹钢**: Last week, the output was 206.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.48 tons; the apparent demand was 210.03 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.96 tons. The total inventory was 650.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.58 tons [13][20]. - **热轧**: Last week, the output was 326.49 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.35 tons; the apparent demand was 321.82 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.34 tons. The total inventory was 377.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.67 tons [24][29]. - **基差**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and delivery months showed different changes, such as the 1 - month basis of rebar in Shanghai being 88 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [32]. - **煤焦** - **焦炭**: The total inventory last week was 915.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.99 tons. The independent coke enterprise inventory was 66.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 tons [47]. - **焦煤**: The total inventory last week was 2550.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.68 tons. The independent coke enterprise inventory was 940.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.9 tons [55]. - **Other Data**: Data such as the profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises, inventory availability days, and the ratio of coke to coking coal prices also showed corresponding changes [63][67]. - **铁合金** - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon all increased last week. For example, the spot price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia (6517) increased from 5650 to 5730 yuan/ton [79]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of manganese ore increased. The inventory of silicon manganese increased significantly, while the inventory of ferrosilicon decreased [81][92]. - **Output and Demand**: The output of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while the output of ferrosilicon remained stable. The demand for both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon decreased for three consecutive weeks [83][89]. - **Import and Production**: In July, the import of manganese ore was 274.35 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.23%. In August, the production of silicon manganese was 90.93 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.94% [96].